Continuum of Care for Hodgkin Lymphoma: Impact of Modern Therapy on Postacute Morbidity and Mortality

Harnessing multi-source data for individualized care in Hodgkin Lymphoma

Hodgkin lymphoma is a rare, but highly curative form of cancer, primarily afflicting adolescents and young adults. Despite multiple seminal trials over the past twenty years, there is no single consensus-based treatment approach beyond use of multi-agency chemotherapy with curative intent. The use of radiation continues to be debated in early-stage disease, as part of combined modality treatment, as well as in salvage, as an important form of consolidation. While short-term disease outcomes have varied little across these different approaches across both early and advanced stage disease, the potential risk of severe, longer-term risk has varied considerably. Over the past decade novel therapeutics have been employed in the retrieval setting in preparation to and as consolidation after autologous stem cell transplant. More recently, these novel therapeutics have moved to the frontline setting, initially compared to standard-of-care treatment and later in a direct head-to-head comparison combined with multi-agent chemotherapy. In 2018, we established the HoLISTIC Consortium, bringing together disease and methods experts to develop clinical decision models based on individual patient data to guide providers, patients, and caregivers in decision-making. In this review, we detail the steps we followed to create the master database of individual patient data from patients treated over the past 20 years, using principles of data science. We then describe different methodological approaches we are taking to clinical decision making, beginning with clinical prediction tools at the time of diagnosis, to multi-state models, incorporating treatments and their response. Finally, we describe how simulation modeling can be used to estimate risks of late effects, based on cumulative exposure from frontline and salvage treatment. The resultant database and tools employed are dynamic with the expectation that they will be updated as better and more complete information becomes available.

The Advanced-Stage Hodgkin Lymphoma International Prognostic Index: Development and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Model From the HoLISTIC Consortium

PURPOSE

The International Prognostic Score (IPS) has been used in classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) for 25 years. However, analyses have documented suboptimal performance of the IPS among contemporarily treated patients. Harnessing multisource individual patient data from the Hodgkin Lymphoma International Study for Individual Care consortium, we developed and validated a modern clinical prediction model.

METHODS

Model development via Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis guidelines was performed on 4,022 patients with newly diagnosed advanced-stage adult cHL from eight international phase III clinical trials, conducted from 1996 to 2014. External validation was performed on 1,431 contemporaneously treated patients from four real-world cHL registries. To consider association over a full range of continuous variables, we evaluated piecewise linear splines for potential nonlinear relationships. Five-year progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

The median age in the development cohort was 33 (18-65) years; nodular sclerosis was the most common histology. Kaplan-Meier estimators were 0.77 for 5-year PFS and 0.92 for 5-year OS. Significant predictor variables included age, sex, stage, bulk, absolute lymphocyte count, hemoglobin, and albumin, with slight variation for PFS versus OS. Moreover, age and absolute lymphocyte count yielded nonlinear relationships with outcomes. Optimism-corrected c-statistics in the development model for 5-year PFS and OS were 0.590 and 0.720, respectively. There was good discrimination and calibration in external validation and consistent performance in internal-external validation. Compared with the IPS, there was superior discrimination for OS and enhanced calibration for PFS and OS.

CONCLUSION

We rigorously developed and externally validated a clinical prediction model in > 5,000 patients with advanced-stage cHL. Furthermore, we identified several novel nonlinear relationships and improved the prediction of patient outcomes. An online calculator was created for individualized point-of-care use.

Overall Survival with Brentuximab Vedotin in Stage III or IV Hodgkin's Lymphoma

BACKGROUND

Five-year follow-up in a trial involving patients with previously untreated stage III or IV classic Hodgkin's lymphoma showed long-term progression-free survival benefits with first-line therapy with brentuximab vedotin, a CD30-directed antibody-drug conjugate, plus doxorubicin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine (A+AVD), as compared with doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine (ABVD). A planned interim analysis indicated a potential benefit with regard to overall survival; data from a median of 6 years of follow-up are now available.

METHODS

We randomly assigned patients in a 1:1 ratio to receive up to six cycles of A+AVD or ABVD. The primary end point, modified progression-free survival, has been reported previously. The key secondary end point was overall survival in the intention-to-treat population. Safety was also assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 664 patients were assigned to receive A+AVD and 670 to receive ABVD. At a median follow-up of 73.0 months, 39 patients in the A+AVD group and 64 in the ABVD group had died (hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.40 to 0.88; P = 0.009). The 6-year overall survival estimates were 93.9% (95% CI, 91.6 to 95.5) in the A+AVD group and 89.4% (95% CI, 86.6 to 91.7) in the ABVD group. Progression-free survival was longer with A+AVD than with ABVD (hazard ratio for disease progression or death, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.86). Fewer patients in the A+AVD group than in the ABVD group received subsequent therapy, including transplantation, and fewer second cancers were reported with A+AVD (in 23 vs. 32 patients). Primary prophylaxis with granulocyte colony-stimulating factor was recommended after an increased incidence of febrile neutropenia was observed with A+AVD. More patients had peripheral neuropathy with A+AVD than with ABVD, but most patients in the two groups had resolution or amelioration of the event by the last follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who received A+AVD for the treatment of stage III or IV Hodgkin's lymphoma had a survival advantage over those who received ABVD. (Funded by Takeda Development Center Americas and Seagen; ECHELON-1 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01712490; EudraCT number, 2011-005450-60.).

Informing radiotherapy decisions in stage I/IIa Hodgkin lymphoma: modeling life expectancy using radiation dosimetry

In recent randomized trials, omitting consolidative radiotherapy (RT) in early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma (ESHL) increased relapses. However, decades of follow-up are required to observe whether lower initial disease control is compensated by reduced risk of late effects. Extrapolation beyond trial follow-up is therefore necessary to inform current treatment decisions. To this end, we developed a microsimulation model to estimate lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) after combined modality treatment (CMT) or chemotherapy-alone for stage I/IIa ESHL. For CMT, the model included risks of breast and lung cancer, coronary heart disease, and ischemic stroke. Comparative outcomes were assessed for a clinically relevant range of example patients differing by age, sex, smoking status, and representative organs at risk (OAR) radiation doses informed by the RAPID trial. Analysis was performed with and without a 3.5% discount rate on future health. Smoking status had a large effect on optimal treatment choice. CMT was superior for nearly all never smoker example patients regardless of age, sex, and OAR doses. At a maximum, CMT produced a 1.095 (95% CI: 1.054-1.137) gain in undiscounted QALYs for a 20-year-old male never smoker with unilateral neck disease. In contrast, current smokers could substantially gain from chemotherapy-alone treatment. Again at a maximum, a 20-year-old male current smoker with bilateral neck and whole mediastinum involvement gained 3.500 (95% CI: 3.400 to 3.600) undiscounted QALYs with chemotherapy-alone treatment. Overall, CMT was more favorable the younger the patient, when future health discounting was included, and in never smokers.