Exploring the characteristics, methods and reporting of systematic reviews with meta-analyses of time-to-event outcomes: a meta-epidemiological study

BACKGROUND

Time-to-event analysis is associated with methodological complexities. Previous research identified flaws in the reporting of time-to-event analyses in randomized trial publications. These hardships impose challenges for meta-analyses of time-to-event outcomes based on aggregate data. We examined the characteristics, reporting and methods of systematic reviews including such analyses.

METHODS

Through a systematic search (02/2017-08/2020), we identified 50 Cochrane Reviews with ≥ 1 meta-analysis based on the hazard ratio (HR) and a corresponding random sample (n = 50) from core clinical journals (Medline; 08/02/2021). Data was extracted in duplicate and included outcome definitions, general and time-to-event specific methods and handling of time-to-event relevant trial characteristics.

RESULTS

The included reviews analyzed 217 time-to-event outcomes (Median: 2; IQR 1-2), most frequently overall survival (41%). Outcome definitions were provided for less than half of time-to-event outcomes (48%). Few reviews specified general methods, e.g., included analysis types (intention-to-treat, per protocol) (35%) and adjustment of effect estimates (12%). Sources that review authors used for retrieval of time-to-event summary data from publications varied substantially. Most frequently reported were direct inclusion of HRs (64%) and reference to established guidance without further specification (46%). Study characteristics important to time-to-event analysis, such as variable follow-up, informative censoring or proportional hazards, were rarely reported. If presented, complementary absolute effect estimates calculated based on the pooled HR were incorrectly calculated (14%) or correct but falsely labeled (11%) in several reviews.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that limitations in reporting of trial time-to-event analyses translate to the review level as well. Inconsistent reporting of meta-analyses of time-to-event outcomes necessitates additional reporting standards.

Assessment of endpoint definitions in recurrent and metastatic mucosal head and neck squamous cell carcinoma trials: Head and Neck Cancer International Group consensus recommendations

Transparent and precise endpoint definitions are a crucial aspect of clinical trial conduct and reporting, and are used to communicate the benefit of an intervention. Previous studies have identified inconsistencies in endpoint definitions across oncological clinical trials. Here, the Head and Neck Cancer International Group assessed endpoint definitions from phase 3 trials or trials considered practice-changing for patients with recurrent or metastatic mucosal head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, published between 2008 and 2021. We identify considerable and global heterogeneity in endpoint definitions, which undermines the interpretation of results and development of future studies. We show how fundamental components of even incontrovertible endpoints such as overall survival vary widely, highlighting an urgent need for increased rigour in reporting and harmonisation of endpoints.

Assessment of endpoint definitions in curative-intent trials for mucosal head and neck squamous cell carcinomas: Head and Neck Cancer International Group consensus recommendations

Robust time-to-event endpoint definitions are crucial for the assessment of treatment effect and the clinical value of trial interventions. Here, the Head and Neck Cancer International Group investigated endpoint use in phase 3 trials and trials considered potentially practice-changing published between 2008 and 2021 in the curative-intent setting for patients with mucosal head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. Of the 92 trials reviewed, we show that all core components of endpoint reporting were heterogeneous, including definitions of common terms, such as overall survival and progression-free survival. Our report highlights the urgent need for harmonisation of fundamental components of clinical trial endpoints and the engagement of all stakeholders to ensure the transparent reporting of endpoint details.

Segmentation of patients with small cell lung cancer into responders and non-responders using the optimal cross-validation technique

BACKGROUND

The timing of treating cancer patients is an essential factor in the efficacy of treatment. So, patients who will not respond to current therapy should receive a different treatment as early as possible. Machine learning models can be built to classify responders and nonresponders. Such classification models predict the probability of a patient being a responder. Most methods use a probability threshold of 0.5 to convert the probabilities into binary group membership. However, the cutoff of 0.5 is not always the optimal choice.

METHODS

In this study, we propose a novel data-driven approach to select a better cutoff value based on the optimal cross-validation technique. To illustrate our novel method, we applied it to three clinical trial datasets of small-cell lung cancer patients. We used two different datasets to build a scoring system to segment patients. Then the models were applied to segment patients into the test data.

RESULTS

We found that, in test data, the predicted responders and non-responders had significantly different long-term survival outcomes. Our proposed novel method segments patients better than the standard approach using a cutoff of 0.5. Comparing clinical outcomes of responders versus non-responders, our novel method had a p-value of 0.009 with a hazard ratio of 0.668 for grouping patients using the Cox proportion hazard model and a p-value of 0.011 using the accelerated failure time model which approved a significant difference between responders and non-responders. In contrast, the standard approach had a p-value of 0.194 with a hazard ratio of 0.823 using the Cox proportion hazard model and a p-value of 0.240 using the accelerated failure time model indicating the responders and non-responders do not differ significantly in survival.

CONCLUSION

In summary, our novel prediction method can successfully segment new patients into responders and non-responders. Clinicians can use our prediction to decide if a patient should receive a different treatment or stay with the current treatment.

Competing risk multistate censored data modeling by propensity score matching method

The potential contribution of the paper is the use of the propensity score matching method for updating censored observations within the context of multi-state model featuring two competing risks.The competing risks are modelled using cause-specific Cox proportional hazard model.The simulation findings demonstrate that updating censored observations tends to lead to reduced bias and mean squared error for all estimated parameters in the risk of cause-specific Cox model.The results for a chemoradiotherapy real dataset are consistent with the simulation results.

Advanced considerations in survival analysis

Investigation of survival during the follow-up period is common in cardiovascular research and has intrinsic issues that require precise knowledge, such as survival or censoring. Besides, as the follow-up period lengthens and events other than mortality are studied, the analysis becomes more complex, so Kaplan-Meier analyses or Cox models are not always sufficient. In this primer, we provide the reader with detailed information on the interpretation of the most common survival analyses and delve into methods to analyse competing risks or alternatives to the conventional methods when the proportional hazards assumption is not met.

Prognostic effect of CD73 in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma for disease-free survival after radical surgery

PURPOSE

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a lethal disease with a high potency of metastasis or recurrence after radical resection. Effective predictors for metastasis and recurrence postoperatively were dominant for the development of systemic adjuvant treatment regimens. The ATP hydrolase correlated gene CD73 was described as a promoter in tumor growth and immune escape of PDAC. However, there lacked research focused on the role of CD73 in PDAC metastasis. This study aimed to investigate the expression of CD73 in PDAC patients with different outcomes as well as the prognostic effect of CD73 for disease-free survival (DFS).

METHODS

The expression level of CD73 in cancerous samples from 301 PDAC patients was evaluated by immunohistochemistry (IHC) and translated into a histochemistry score (H-score) by the HALO analysis system. Then, the CD73 H-score was involved in multivariate Cox regression along with other clinicopathological characteristics to find independent prognostic factors for DFS. Finally, a nomogram was constructed based on those independent prognostic factors for DFS prediction.

RESULTS

Higher CD73 expression was found in PDAC patients with tumor metastasis postoperatively. Meanwhile, higher CD73 expressions were also investigated in PDAC patients diagnosed with advanced N stage and T stage. Furthermore, CD73 H-score along with tumor margin status, CA19-9, 8th N stage, and adjuvant chemotherapy was indicated as independent prognostic factors for DFS in PDAC patients. The nomogram based on these factors predicted DFS in a good manner.

CONCLUSION

CD73 was associated with PDAC metastasis and served as an effective prognostic factor for DFS in PDAC patients after radical surgery.

Meta-epidemiological review identified variable reporting and handling of time-to-event analyses in publications of trials included in meta-analyses of systematic reviews

OBJECTIVES

Previous findings indicate limited reporting of systematic reviews with meta-analyses of time-to-event (TTE) outcomes. We assessed corresponding available information in trial publications included in such meta-analyses.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We extracted data from all randomized trials in pairwise, hazard ratio (HR)-based meta-analyses of primary outcomes and overall survival of 50 systematic reviews systematically identified from the Cochrane Database and Core Clinical Journals. Data on methods and characteristics relevant for TTE analysis of reviews, trials, and outcomes were extracted.

RESULTS

Meta-analyses included 235 trials with 315 trial analyses. Most prominently assessed was overall survival (91%). Definitions (61%), censoring reasons (41%), and follow-up specifications (56%) for trial outcomes were often missing. Available TTE data per trial were most frequently survival curves (83%), log-rank P values (76%), and HRs (72%). When trial TTE data recalculation was reported, reviews mostly specified HRs or P values (each 5%). Reviews primarily included intention-to-treat analyses (64%) and analyses not adjusted for covariates (25%). Except for missing outcome data, TTE-relevant trial characteristics, for example, informative censoring, treatment switching, and proportional hazards, were sporadically addressed in trial publications. Reporting limitations in trial publications translate to the review level.

CONCLUSION

TTE (meta)-analyses, in trial and review publications, need clear reporting standards.

Prognostic Markers of Microinvasive Breast Carcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

(1) Background: The prognostic factors of microinvasive (≤1 mm) breast carcinoma are not completely clear. The aim of this study was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to clarify these factors. (2) Methods: The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology was followed. Two databases were interrogated, PubMed and Embase, and papers in English were included to address this question. The selected studies were those that reported on female patients affected by microinvasive carcinoma, and on prognostic factors with a hazard ratio (HR) for disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). (3) Results: In total, 618 records were identified. After removing duplicates (166), identification, and screening (336 by title and abstract alone, 116 by full text and eventual supplementary material), 5 papers were selected. Seven different meta-analyses were conducted in this study, all referring to DFS, analyzing the following prognostic factors: estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, HER2 status, multifocality and grade of microinvasion, patient's age, and lymph node status. Only lymph node status was associated with prognosis and DFS (total number of cases: 1528; Z = 1.94; p = 0.05). The other factors examined did not significantly affect prognosis (p > 0.05). (4) Conclusions: Positive lymph node status significantly worsens prognosis in patients with microinvasive breast carcinoma.

Neoadjuvant therapy in triple-negative breast cancer: A systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Evidence for the preferred neoadjuvant therapy regimen in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is not yet established.

METHODS

Literature search was conducted from inception to February 12, 2022. Phase 2 and 3 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigating neoadjuvant therapy for TNBC were eligible. The primary outcome was pathologic complete response (pCR); the secondary outcomes were all-cause treatment discontinuation, disease-free survival or event-free survival (DFS/EFS), and overall survival. Odd ratios (OR) with 95% credible intervals (CrI) were used to estimate binary outcomes; hazard ratios (HR) with 95% CrI were used to estimate time-to-event outcomes. Bayesian network meta-analysis was implemented for each endpoint. Sensitivity analysis and network meta-regression were done.

RESULTS

41 RCTs (N = 7109 TNBC patients) were eligible. Compared with anthracycline- and taxane-based chemotherapy (ChT), PD-1 inhibitor plus platinum plus anthracycline- and taxane-based ChT was associated with a significant increased pCR rate (OR 3.95; 95% CrI 1.81-9.44) and a higher risk of premature treatment discontinuation (3.25; 1.26-8.29). Compared with dose-dense anthracycline- and taxane-based ChT, the combined treatment was not associated with significantly improved pCR (OR 2.57; 95% CrI 0.69-9.92). In terms of time-to-event outcomes, PD-1 inhibitor plus platinum plus anthracycline- and taxane-based ChT was associated with significantly improved DFS/EFS (HR 0.42; 95% CrI 0.19-0.81).

CONCLUSIONS

PD-1 inhibitor plus platinum and anthracycline- and taxane-based ChT was currently the most efficacious regimen for pCR and DFS/EFS improvement in TNBC. The choice of chemotherapy backbone, optimization of patient selection with close follow-up and proactive symptomatic managements are essential to the antitumor activity of PD-1 inhibitor.

Examining evidence of time-dependent treatment effects: an illustration using regression methods

BACKGROUND

For the design and analysis of clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes, the Cox proportional hazards model and the logrank test have been the cornerstone methods for many decades. Increasingly, the key assumption of proportionality-or time-fixed effects-that underpins these methods has been called into question. The availability of novel therapies with new mechanisms of action and clinical trials of longer duration mean that non-proportional hazards are now more frequently encountered.

METHODS

We compared several regression-based methods to model time-dependent treatment effects. For illustration purposes, we used selected endpoints from a large, community-based clinical trial of low dose daily aspirin in older persons. Relative and absolute estimands were defined, and analyses were conducted in all participants. Additional exploratory analyses were undertaken by selected subgroups of interest using interaction terms in the regression models.

DISCUSSION

In the trial with median 4.7 years follow-up, we found evidence for non-proportionality and a time-dependent treatment effect of aspirin on cancer mortality not previously reported in trial findings. We also found some evidence of time-dependence to an aspirin by age interaction for major adverse cardiovascular events. For other endpoints, time-fixed treatment effect estimates were confirmed as appropriate.

CONCLUSIONS

The consideration of treatment effects using both absolute and relative estimands enhanced clinical insights into potential dynamic treatment effects. We recommend these analytical approaches as an adjunct to primary analyses to fully explore findings from clinical trials.

Methodology to standardize heterogeneous statistical data presentations for combining time-to-event oncologic outcomes

Survival analysis following oncological treatments require specific analysis techniques to account for data considerations, such as failure to observe the time of event, patient withdrawal, loss to follow-up, and differential follow up. These techniques can include Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard analyses. However, studies do not always report overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), or cancer recurrence using hazard ratios, making the synthesis of such oncologic outcomes difficult. We propose a hierarchical utilization of methods to extract or estimate the hazard ratio to standardize time-to-event outcomes so that study inclusion into meta-analyses can be maximized. We also provide proof-of concept results from a statistical analysis that compares OS, DFS, and cancer recurrence for robotic surgery to open and non-robotic minimally invasive surgery. In our example, use of the proposed methodology would allow for the increase in data inclusion from 108 hazard ratios reported to 240 hazard ratios reported or estimated, resulting in an increase of 122%. While there are publications summarizing the motivation for these analyses, and comprehensive papers describing strategies to obtain estimates from published time-dependent analyses, we are not aware of a manuscript that describes a prospective framework for an analysis of this scale focusing on the inclusion of a maximum number of publications reporting on long-term oncologic outcomes incorporating various presentations of statistical data.

Violations of proportional hazard assumption in Cox regression model of transcriptomic data in TCGA pan-cancer cohorts

Background

Cox proportional hazard regression (CPH) model relies on the proportional hazard (PH) assumption: the hazard of variables is independent of time. CPH has been widely used to identify prognostic markers of the transcriptome. However, the comprehensive investigation on PH assumption in transcriptomic data has lacked.

Results

The whole transcriptomic data of the 9,056 patients from 32 cohorts of The Cancer Genome Atlas and the 3 lung cancer cohorts from Gene Expression Omnibus were collected to construct CPH model for each gene separately for fitting the overall survival. An average of 8.5% gene CPH models violated the PH assumption in TCGA pan-cancer cohorts. In the gene interaction networks, both hub and non-hub genes in CPH models were likely to have non-proportional hazards. Violations of PH assumption for the same gene models were not consistent in 5 non-small cell lung cancer datasets (all kappa coefficients < 0.2), indicating that the non-proportionality of gene CPH models depended on the datasets. Furthermore, the introduction of log(t) or sqrt(t) time-functions into CPH improved the performance of gene models on overall survival fitting in most tumors. The time-dependent CPH changed the significance of log hazard ratio of the 31.9% gene variables.

Conclusions

Our analysis resulted that non-proportional hazards should not be ignored in transcriptomic data. Introducing time interaction term ameliorated performance and interpretability of non-proportional hazards of transcriptome data in CPH.

Time to next treatment or death as a candidate surrogate endpoint for overall survival in advanced melanoma patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors: an insight from the phase III CheckMate 067 trial

Background

Time to next treatment or death (TNT-D) may be a patient-relevant endpoint in patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors. This study investigated TNT-D as a surrogate endpoint (SE) for overall survival (OS) in previously untreated advanced melanoma patients.

Methods

Patient-level data from the 60-month results of the CheckMate 067 randomised, controlled trial were used. Analyses were carried out for nivolumab monotherapy or nivolumab with ipilimumab versus ipilimumab monotherapy. The SE 1-step validation method based on a joint frailty-copula model was used where the country of enrolment was applied to define clusters. Kendall’s τ and the coefficient of determination (R²_trial) were estimated for respective measurements of association at the individual and cluster levels. The surrogate threshold effect, the maximum threshold hazard ratio for TNT-D that would translate into OS benefit, was estimated. A leave-one-out cross-validation analysis was carried out to evaluate model robustness.

Results

Fifteen clusters of data were generated from 945 patients. For both nivolumab-containing arms, the association between TNT-D and OS was deemed acceptable at the individual level (Kendall’s τ > 0.60) and strong at the cluster level, with R²_trial fairly close to 1, with narrow confidence intervals. The estimated surrogate threshold effects were 0.61 for nivolumab versus ipilimumab and 0.49 for nivolimub + ipilimumab versus ipilimumab. Cross-validation results showed minimum variation of the correlation measures and satisfactory predictive accuracy for the model.

Conclusion

Results suggest that TNT-D may be a valuable SE in previously untreated advanced melanoma patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors. Surrogacy analyses considering multiple randomised controlled trials are warranted for confirming these findings.

•

This is the first study to assess the surrogacy properties of TNT-D for OS in immune checkpoint inhibitor-treated patients.

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TNT-D is a clinically relevant, pragmatic and often measurable endpoint that reflects the result of a therapeutic decision.

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TNT-D appears to be a promising SE for OS in advanced melanoma patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors.

A novel event-free survival endpoint in locally advanced pancreatic cancer

The treatment paradigm for locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) is evolving rapidly. The development of neoadjuvant therapies composed of combination therapies and the evaluation of their impact on conversion to borderline resectable (BR) status, resection, and ultimately overall survival (OS) are presently being pursued. These efforts justify re-visiting study endpoints in order to better predict therapeutic effects on OS, by capturing not only the achievement of R0 resection at the end of induction therapy but also the long-term reductions in the rate of local and distal recurrence. The proposed herein event-free survival (EFS) endpoint, with its novel definition specific to LAPC, is formulated to achieve these objectives. It is an analog to disease-free survival (DFS) endpoint in the adjuvant setting applied to the neoadjuvant setting and may be a valuable surrogate endpoint for this patient population.

Semi-Mechanistic Model for the Antitumor Response of a Combination Cocktail of Immuno-Modulators in Non-Inflamed (Cold) Tumors

Simple Summary

The clinical efficacy of immunotherapies when treating cold tumors is still low, and different treatment combinations are needed when dealing with this challenging scenario. In this work, a middle-out strategy was followed to develop a model describing the antitumor efficacy of different immune-modulator combinations, including an antigen, a toll-like receptor-3 agonist, and an immune checkpoint inhibitor in mice treated with non-inflamed tumor cells. Our results support that clinical response requires antigen-presenting cell activation and also relies on the amount of CD8 T cells and tumor resistance mechanisms present. This mathematical model is a very useful platform to evaluate different immuno-oncology combinations in both preclinical and clinical settings.

Abstract

Immune checkpoint inhibitors, administered as single agents, have demonstrated clinical efficacy. However, when treating cold tumors, different combination strategies are needed. This work aims to develop a semi-mechanistic model describing the antitumor efficacy of immunotherapy combinations in cold tumors. Tumor size of mice treated with TC-1/A9 non-inflamed tumors and the drug effects of an antigen, a toll-like receptor-3 agonist (PIC), and an immune checkpoint inhibitor (anti-programmed cell death 1 antibody) were modeled using Monolix and following a middle-out strategy. Tumor growth was best characterized by an exponential model with an estimated initial tumor size of 19.5 mm³ and a doubling time of 3.6 days. In the treatment groups, contrary to the lack of response observed in monotherapy, combinations including the antigen were able to induce an antitumor response. The final model successfully captured the 23% increase in the probability of cure from bi-therapy to triple-therapy. Moreover, our work supports that CD8⁺ T lymphocytes and resistance mechanisms are strongly related to the clinical outcome. The activation of antigen-presenting cells might be needed to achieve an antitumor response in reduced immunogenic tumors when combined with other immunotherapies. These models can be used as a platform to evaluate different immuno-oncology combinations in preclinical and clinical scenarios.

Impact of a non-constant baseline hazard on detection of time-dependent treatment effects: a simulation study

Background

Non-proportional hazards are common with time-to-event data but the majority of randomised clinical trials (RCTs) are designed and analysed using approaches which assume the treatment effect follows proportional hazards (PH). Recent advances in oncology treatments have identified two forms of non-PH of particular importance - a time lag until treatment becomes effective, and an early effect of treatment that ceases after a period of time. In sample size calculations for treatment effects on time-to-event outcomes where information is based on the number of events rather than the number of participants, there is crucial importance in correct specification of the baseline hazard rate amongst other considerations. Under PH, the shape of the baseline hazard has no effect on the resultant power and magnitude of treatment effects using standard analytical approaches. However, in a non-PH context the appropriateness of analytical approaches can depend on the shape of the underlying hazard.

Methods

A simulation study was undertaken to assess the impact of clinically plausible non-constant baseline hazard rates on the power, magnitude and coverage of commonly utilized regression-based measures of treatment effect and tests of survival curve difference for these two forms of non-PH used in RCTs with time-to-event outcomes.

Results

In the presence of even mild departures from PH, the power, average treatment effect size and coverage were adversely affected. Depending on the nature of the non-proportionality, non-constant event rates could further exacerbate or somewhat ameliorate the losses in power, treatment effect magnitude and coverage observed. No single summary measure of treatment effect was able to adequately describe the full extent of a potentially time-limited treatment benefit whilst maintaining power at nominal levels.

Conclusions

Our results show the increased importance of considering plausible potentially non-constant event rates when non-proportionality of treatment effects could be anticipated. In planning clinical trials with the potential for non-PH, even modest departures from an assumed constant baseline hazard could appreciably impact the power to detect treatment effects depending on the nature of the non-PH. Comprehensive analysis plans may be required to accommodate the description of time-dependent treatment effects.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-021-01372-0.

[Evaluation of quality of life: Clinical relevance for patient]

The quality of life of patients and its evaluation remains one of the primordial objectives in oncology. Different methods and tools of evaluation of quality of life have been developed with the objective of having a global evaluation, throughout different aspects, be it physical, emotional, psychological or social. The quality of life questionnaires improve and simplify the reevaluation and follow-up of patients during clinical trials. Patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) are an evaluation of the quality of life as experienced by the patients (patient-reported-outcomes [PROs]) and allow for physicians a personalized treatment approach. In radiotherapy, PROMs are a useful tool for the follow-up of patients during or after treatment. The technological advances, notably in data collecting, but also in their integration and treatment with regard to artificial intelligence will allow integrating these evaluation tools in the management of patients in oncology.

SPIRIT-PRO Extension explanation and elaboration: guidelines for inclusion of patient-reported outcomes in protocols of clinical trials

Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) are used in clinical trials to provide valuable evidence on the impact of disease and treatment on patients' symptoms, function and quality of life. High-quality PRO data from trials can inform shared decision-making, regulatory and economic analyses and health policy. Recent evidence suggests the PRO content of past trial protocols was often incomplete or unclear, leading to research waste. To address this issue, international, consensus-based, PRO-specific guidelines were developed: the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials (SPIRIT)-PRO Extension. The SPIRIT-PRO Extension is a 16-item checklist which aims to improve the content and quality of aspects of clinical trial protocols relating to PRO data collection to minimise research waste, and ultimately better inform patient-centred care. This SPIRIT-PRO explanation and elaboration (E&E) paper provides information to promote understanding and facilitate uptake of the recommended checklist items, including a comprehensive protocol template. For each SPIRIT-PRO item, we provide a detailed description, one or more examples from existing trial protocols and supporting empirical evidence of the item's importance. We recommend this paper and protocol template be used alongside the SPIRIT 2013 and SPIRIT-PRO Extension paper to optimise the transparent development and review of trial protocols with PROs.

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia: A population-based study of outcome in the United States based on the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database, 1980-2017

The treatment in acute lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) has evolved and improved dramatically over the past four decades. We assessed the outcome of ALL overall, and the two major subsets of Philadelphia chromosome (Ph)-positive and Ph-negative ALL by age, time periods, ethnicity, median household income, and geographic county area. A total of 12 788 patients diagnosed with ALL from 1980 to 2017 were included. We performed an analysis to better evaluate the outcome evolution in ALL according to time period and patient's demographic factors. The overall 5-year survival rates have improved significantly over time, from 51% before 1990 to 72% since 2010. The survival rates for children (age 0 to 14 years) and adolescents (age 15 to 19 years) have improved from 73% and 55% before 1990 to 93% and 74% since 2010, respectively. Similarly, the rates had improved from 33% to 59% for adults 20 to 29 years old, 24% to 59% for 30 to 39 years old, and 14% to 43% for 40 to 59 years old between the two time periods. The rates remained under 30% in older patients (60+ years). Since 2010, patients with Ph-negative ALL had 5-year survival rate of 73% and those with Ph-positive ALL 50%. African Americans, Hispanic ethnicity, and lower household income were associated with inferior survival. The outcome of patients with ALL showed continued improvement across all age groups in the US. The recent introduction of targeted therapies, together with optimized supportive care, will continue to improve outcomes, particularly in older patients.

De novo acute myeloid leukemia: A population-based study of outcome in the United States based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, 1980 to 2017

BACKGROUND

Several important treatment and supportive care strategies have been implemented over the past 4 decades in the management of acute myeloid leukemia (AML).

METHODS

The authors identified 29,107 patients who were diagnosed with de novo AML between 1980 and 2017 in the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Patients were categorized into 5 age groups (ages birth to 14, 15-39, 40-59, 60-69, and ≥70 years) and 4 calendar periods (1980-1989, 1990-1999, 2000-2009, and 2010-2017). The outcomes of patients who had AML within these categories were analyzed.

RESULTS

The overall 5-year survival rates in patients with AML were 9%, 15%, 22%, and 28% in the decades 1980 to 1989, 1990 to 1999, 2000 to 2009, and 2010 to 2017, respectively. Among patients aged 15 to 39 years, the 5-year survival rates were 24%, 41%, 52%, and 63%, respectively; among those aged ≥70 years, the 5-year survival rates were 1%, 2%, 3%, and 5%, respectively. Four-week mortality was surprising high among adults and older patients (range, 20%-45%), even in modern times. Overall, survival continued to improve over the calendar periods and was best in the period from 2010 to 2017. Survival improvement was noticeable across all age groups except patients aged ≥70 years, in whom the estimated 5-year survival rate remained 5% even during the period from 2010 to 2017.

CONCLUSIONS

The outcomes of patients with AML showed incremental improvement over time in a population-based study of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data. The introduction since 2017 of targeted therapies among older patients and optimizations in supportive care hopefully will continue to improve outcomes in AML, particularly among older patients.

Turgeon A, Hallet J, Daigle G, Côté F, Provencher S. Effect of Yttrium-90 transarterial radioembolization in patients with non-surgical hepatocellular carcinoma: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Recently, the use of Yttrium-90 transarterial radioembolization in non-surgical hepatocellular carcinoma was suggested but the evidence supporting its use is unclear.

Methods

We searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane CENTRAL from inception up to April 14, 2020 for randomized controlled trials comparing Y90-TARE to standard of care in non-surgical HCC patients. Our primary outcome was overall survival (OS). Our secondary outcomes were progression-free survival, time to progression, disease control rate, grade ≥3 adverse events and rates of gastro-intestinal ulcers. Hazard ratios (HR) and risk ratios (RR) with random-effects model were used for our analyses. The risk of bias of the included studies was assessed using Cochrane’s RoB 2 tool.

Results

Of 1,604 citations identified, eight studies (1,439 patients) were included in our analysis. No improvement in overall survival were noted when Yttrium-90 transarterial radioembolization was compared to standard treatments (HR 0.99 [95% CI 0.81–1.21], 6 studies, I² = 77.6%). However, Yttrium-90 transarterial radioembolization was associated with fewer grade ≥3 adverse events (RR 0.64 [95% CI 0.45–0.92], 7 studies, I² = 66%). No difference was observed on other secondary outcomes.

Discussion

In non-surgical HCC patients, Yttrium-90 transarterial radioembolization was not associated with significant effect on survival, progression-free survival, time to progression, disease control rate and the incidence of gastro-intestinal ulcers but was however associated with significantly lower rates of grade ≥3 adverse events. Further randomized controlled trials are warranted to better delineate optimal treatment.

Nonaspirin nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and gastric cancer risk after Helicobacter pylori eradication: A territory-wide study

BACKGROUND

Despite Helicobacter pylori (HP) eradication, individuals can still develop gastric cancer (GC). Prior studies have demonstrated that nonaspirin nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NA-NSAIDs) reduce the risk of GC, but this may be caused by immortal time bias and failure to adjust for HP status. The objective of this study was to investigate whether NA-NSAIDs reduced the risk of GC in patients who undergo H. pylori eradication.

METHODS

Adult patients who had received clarithromycin-based triple therapy between 2003 and 2016 were identified from a territory-wide health care database. Exclusion criteria included prior GC or GC diagnosed <6 months after HP eradication, prior gastrectomy, gastric ulcer after HP eradication, and failure of triple therapy. Covariates included age, sex, prior peptic ulcer disease, other comorbidities, and concurrent medications (aspirin, proton pump inhibitors, statins, and metformin). To avoid immortal time bias, NA-NSAID use (≥90 days) was treated as a time-dependent variable in a multivariable Cox model (time-dependent analysis). Time-independent analysis was also performed.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 8.9 years (interquartile range, 5.4-12.6 years), 364 of 92,017 patients (0.4%) who underwent HP eradication developed GC. NA-NSAID use was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of GC in time-fixed analysis (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.65; 95% CI, 0.47-0.90), but not in time-dependent multivariable analysis (aHR, 1.35; 95% CI, 0.97-1.87). Time-dependent subgroup analyses also did not indicate any significant association between NA-NSAID use and either cardia GC (aHR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.27-2.06) or noncardia GC (aHR, 1.28; 95% CI, 0.83-1.98).

CONCLUSIONS

NA-NSAID use was not associated with a reduced risk of GC among patients who underwent HP eradication. The chemopreventive effect of NA-NSAIDs observed in prior studies may have been confounded by immortal time bias.

Calcium channel blockers are associated with lower gastric cancer risk: A territory-wide study with propensity score analysis

Prior studies showed that calcium channel blockers (CCBs) could modify cancer risk, but data on gastric cancer (GC) are limited. We aimed to investigate whether CCBs could modify GC risk in Helicobacter pylori-eradicated patients. H pylori-infected patients with hypertension who are aged ≥50 and had received clarithromycin-based triple therapy between 2003 and 2016 were identified from a territory-wide healthcare database. Patients with eradication failure, GC diagnosed within 6 months after HP eradication, and gastric ulcer were excluded. Time-fixed Cox model with one-to-one propensity score matching was used to calculate hazard ratio (HR) of GC with CCBs. Sensitivity analysis using time-dependent multivariable Cox model in which CCB use was treated as time-varying covariate was also performed to address immortal time bias. 17 622 (29.6%) H pylori-eradicated patients with hypertension were included. During a median follow-up of 8.6 years, 105 (0.6%) developed GC. After PS matching, CCBs were associated with a lower GC risk (HR: 0.56; 95% CI: 0.32-0.97). Time-dependent analysis showed consistent result (aHR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.33-0.75). A longer duration of CCB use was associated with even lower GC risk (adjusted HR [aHR]: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.61-0.79 for every 1-year increase in use). Long-acting CCBs (aHR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.29-0.76) and dihydropyridines (aHR: 0.49; 95% CI: 0.32-0.73) conferred greater benefit than short-acting ones (aHR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.36-1.03) and nondihydropyridines (aHR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.24-2.48). The aHR was 0.57 (95% CI: 0.34-0.97) for noncardia and 0.59 (95% CI: 0.27-1.31) for cardia cancer. Use of CCBs was associated with lower risk of GC development in H pylori-eradicated patients, in a duration- and dose-response manner.

GRADE Guidelines: 29. Rating the certainty in time-to-event outcomes-Study limitations due to censoring of participants with missing data in intervention studies

OBJECTIVES

To provide Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) guidance for the consideration of study limitations (risk of bias) due to missing participant outcome data for time-to-event outcomes in intervention studies.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We developed this guidance through an iterative process that included membership consultation, feedback, presentation, and iterative discussion at meetings of the GRADE working group.

RESULTS

The GRADE working group has published guidance on how to account for missing participant outcome data in binary and continuous outcomes. When analyzing time-to-event outcomes (e.g., overall survival and time-to-treatment failure) data of participants for whom the outcome of interest (e.g., death and relapse) has not been observed are dealt with through censoring. To do so, standard methods require that censored individuals are representative for those remaining in the study. Two types of censoring can be distinguished, end of study censoring and censoring because of missing data, commonly named loss to follow-up censoring. However, both types are not distinguishable with the usual information on censoring available to review authors. Dealing with individuals for whom data are missing during follow-up in the same way as individuals for whom full follow-up is available at the end of the study increases the risk of bias. Considerable differences in the treatment arms in the distribution of censoring over time (early versus late censoring), the overall degree of missing follow-up data, and the reasons why individuals were lost to follow-up may reduce the certainty in the study results. With often only very limited data available, review and guideline authors are required to make transparent and well-considered judgments when judging risk of bias of individual studies and then come to an overall grading decision for the entire body of evidence.

CONCLUSION

Concern for risk of bias resulting from censoring of participants for whom follow-up data are missing in the underlying studies of a body of evidence can be expressed in the study limitations (risk of bias) domain of the GRADE approach.

Eligibility Criteria and Endpoints in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Trials

OBJECTIVES

Treatments for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) are often compared across trials, but trial eligibility criteria and endpoints differ. In an effort to better align trials, the Definition for the Assessment of Time to event Endpoints in CANcer trials (DATECAN) project published recommendations in 2015 to be used in mRCC clinical trial design. We analyzed mRCC trial criteria to determine if DATECAN's recommendations were followed.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We compared eligibility criteria across 29 phase 3 mRCC trials conducted between 2003 and 2019. We then evaluated endpoints used in 10 phase 3 trials activated between 2015 and 2019 to determine their compliance with DATECAN's recommendations.

RESULTS

Among the 29 trials, performance status, renal function, and disease characteristics differed in terms of requirements and measures used. In terms of endpoints, the 10 trials did not entirely follow DATECAN's recommendations. In total, 7/10 trials' primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS) as recommended; 4/9 trials used PFS as an endpoint but did not publish their definition of PFS, and the 5 that did, included "death from any cause" instead of DATECAN's recommendation of "death from kidney cancer."

CONCLUSIONS

Key eligibility criteria were somewhat inconsistent across the phase 3 mRCC trials studied. Endpoints in the newer trials did not align with DATECAN's recommendations. Not only is greater standardization needed to facilitate meta-analyses and cross-trial comparisons, but as evident from lack of adherence to DATECAN's recommendations, greater promotion and adoption of recommendations are needed to better harmonize trial design.

Impact of Extracapsular Extension of Lymph Node in Adenocarcinoma of the Stomach

BACKGROUND

Extracapsular extension (ECE) of lymph node may have important prognostic impact for patients with adenocarcinoma of the stomach, but it generally is ignored in staging systems and prognostic models. This study aimed to examine the impact that ECE of lymph node has on prognosis for patients with adenocarcinoma of the stomach.

METHODS

The study analyzed 321 consecutive patients with gastric cancer who underwent radical gastrectomy between January 2008 and December 2015. None of these patients had distant metastases. Lymph node metastases were found in 187 patients. The ECE grade was evaluated according to the previously described system used in head and neck cancers. Deposits of cancer cells in sub-serosal fat without a recognizable lymph node were classified as ECE grade 4. Survival outcomes were compared using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. A nomogram was constructed using identified significant prognostic factors. The predictive accuracy and model performance were measured by the concordance index (C-index).

RESULTS

Patients with ECE(+) showed significantly worse 3-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) than those without ECE. In the sensitivity analysis, ECE had independent prognostic value for both 3-year OS and 3-year DFS, whereas ECE grading showed little impact on mortality trend or disease progression trend. The ECE-based nomogram showed a significantly higher C-index than the pathological tumor and node staging (pTN) staging system.

CONCLUSIONS

The adverse prognostic impact of ECE was validated. Sub-serosal tumor deposits without recognizable lymph node tissue are recommended for inclusion in the ECE definition. A nomogram involving ECE could provide better individual prediction of survival for patients with lymph node-positive gastric cancer.

Time-Varying Effects of Marital Status on Gastric Cancer: A Population-Based Study

Background

Although prior studies have shown that marital status affects the prognosis of patients with gastric cancer, its time-varying effects are not well understood. We aimed to investigate the changes in marital status’ impact over a 10-year follow-up time among patients with gastric cancer (GC) in the United States.

Materials and Methods

All patients with gastric cancer diagnosed between 2004 and 2008 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were retrieved. Married patients and unmarried patients (single, separated, divorced or widowed) with complete survival time were selected for comparisons. A total of 14,545 patients who had clinical data and follow-up information available were enrolled. We used Kaplan–Meier analyses and time-dependent flexible parametric models to estimate time-varying hazard ratios (HRs).

Results

Unmarried GC patients had worse overall and cancer-specific survival compared with married patients (log-rank test: P < 0.001 and P < 0.001, respectively). The time-varying analysis found that unmarried patients had a significantly higher risk of overall mortality during the 10-year follow-up time, with the lowest adjusted hazard ratio (HR) at 12 months after diagnosis (HR at 12 months, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03–1.15). For cancer-specific mortality, the time-varying adjusted HR of unmarried patients was significantly higher initially (HR at 12 months, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.02–1.14) but decreased to null after 20 months (HR at 24 months = 1.04; 95% CI = 0.99–1.11).

Conclusion

Unmarried patients had a higher risk of cancer-specific mortality during the 20 months after gastric cancer diagnosis, which may be an appropriate time frame for intervention.

Tree-based classification system incorporating the HVTT-PVTT score for personalized management of hepatocellular carcinoma patients with macroscopic vascular invasion

Purpose: To develop a decision tree algorithm-based classification system for personalized management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with macroscopic vascular invasion.

Results: The HVTT-PVTT score could differentiate two groups of patients (< 3 and ≥ 3 points) with different survival outcomes (7.4 vs 4.6 months, P < 0.001) and surgical proportion (24.4% vs 3.6%, P < 0.001). Using the Cox regression model and classification and regression tree (CART) algorithm, patients in the training set were automatically separated into three subgroups with different prognosis (10.3 vs 6.1 vs 3.3 months). The predictive accuracy was verified in the validation group (12.3 vs 6.9 vs 5.6 months) and was better than other commonly used staging systems.

Conclusions: Our study proposed a new classification system for HCC patients with macroscopic vascular invasion that could be meaningful for personalized management of these patients.

Methods: A total of 869 HCC patients initially diagnosed with macroscopic vascular invasion were randomly divided into training and validation sets. A comprehensive and simplified HVTT-PVTT score was set up for subdivision of vascular invasion according to the patients’ survival outcome. Then, a decision tree algorithm-based classification system was used to establish the refined subdivision system incorporating all independent prognostic factors.

Are non-constant rates and non-proportional treatment effects accounted for in the design and analysis of randomised controlled trials? A review of current practice

Background

Most clinical trials with time-to-event primary outcomes are designed assuming constant event rates and proportional hazards over time. Non-constant event rates and non-proportional hazards are seen increasingly frequently in trials. The objectives of this review were firstly to identify whether non-constant event rates and time-dependent treatment effects were allowed for in sample size calculations of trials, and secondly to assess the methods used for the analysis and reporting of time-to-event outcomes including how researchers accounted for non-proportional treatment effects.

Methods

We reviewed all original reports published between January and June 2017 in four high impact medical journals for trials for which the primary outcome involved time-to-event analysis. We recorded the methods used to analyse and present the main outcomes of the trial and assessed the reporting of assumptions underlying these methods. The sample size calculation was reviewed to see if the effect of either non-constant hazard rates or anticipated non-proportionality of the treatment effect was allowed for during the trial design.

Results

From 446 original reports we identified 66 trials with a time-to-event primary outcome encompassing trial start dates from July 1995 to November 2014. The majority of these trials (73%) had sample size calculations that used standard formulae with a minority of trials (11%) using simulation for anticipated changing event rates and/or non-proportional hazards. Well-established analytical methods, Kaplan-Meier curves (98%), the log rank test (88%) and the Cox proportional hazards model (97%), were used almost exclusively for the main outcome. Parametric regression models were considered in 11% of the reports. Of the trials reporting inference from the Cox model, only 11% reported any results of testing the assumption of proportional hazards.

Conclusions

Our review confirmed that when designing trials with time-to-event primary outcomes, methodologies assuming constant event rates and proportional hazards were predominantly used despite potential efficiencies in sample size needed or power achieved using alternative methods. The Cox proportional hazards model was used almost exclusively to present inferential results, yet testing and reporting of the pivotal assumption underpinning this estimation method was lacking.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12874-019-0749-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Immune-checkpoint inhibitors and candidate surrogate endpoints for overall survival across tumour types: A systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

Surrogate endpoints (SEs) for overall survival (OS) are specific to therapeutic class. The objective of this review was to document all alternative endpoints studied for their association with OS in Immune-Checkpoint Inhibitors (ICI)-treated patients.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Embase for publications reporting the association between a clinical endpoint and OS in ICI-treated populations from 01/01/2003 to 03/31/2018.

RESULTS

Out of 6,335 references identified, 24 were selected. Only 3 studies assessed surrogacy at both the patient and trial levels. The main traditional alternative endpoints included progression-free survival (N = 10) and objective response rate (N = 8). New alternative endpoints, such as durable response rate (N = 1) and intermediate response endpoint (N = 1) statistically better correlate with OS in the cancer types analysed.

CONCLUSION

Based on the published evidence, there is insufficient data to support validated SE for OS. Adequate surrogacy assessment of promising composite endpoints which consider a duration component is encouraged.

Surrogate endpoints in advanced sarcoma trials: a meta-analysis

Background

Alternative endpoints to overall survival (OS) are frequently used to assess treatment efficacy in randomized controlled trials (RCT). Their properties in terms of surrogate outcomes for OS need to be assessed. We evaluated the surrogate properties of progression-free survival (PFS), time-to-progression (TTP) and time-to-treatment failure (TTF) in advanced soft tissue sarcomas (STS).

Results

A total of 21 trials originally met the selection criteria and 14 RCTs (N = 2846) were included in the analysis. Individual-level associations were moderate (highest for 12-month PFS: Spearman’s rho = 0.66; 95% CI [0.63; 0.68]). Trial-level associations were ranked as low for the three endpoints as per the IQWiG criterion.

Materials and Methods

We performed a meta-analysis using individual-patient data (IPD). Phase II/III RCTs evaluating therapies for adults with advanced STS were eligible. We estimated the individual- and the trial-level associations between then candidate surrogates and OS. Statistical methods included weighted linear regression and the two-stage model introduced by Buyse and Burzykowski. The strength of the trial-level association was ranked according to the German Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) guidelines.

Conclusions

Our results do not support strong surrogate properties of PFS, TTP and TTF for OS in advanced STS.

Differential impact of circulating tumor cells on disease recurrence and survivals in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinomas: An updated meta-analysis

Purpose

The prognostic impact of circulating tumor cells (CTC) on disease recurrence, progression and survivals in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) has not been adequately described. The objective of this study was to determine the impacts of the presence of CTC on loco-regional recurrence and survival of HNSCC patients by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Methods

A comprehensive search for articles published between 1990 and 2016 was conducted and data from these studies were extracted, using the MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, and EMBASE databases. The main outcomes were overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) of HNSCC patients. Pooled hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated using the random effect model for outcomes. The quality of the studies, heterogeneity and publication bias were assessed with the appropriate statistical methods.

Results

Six eligible studies with 429 patients were identified. The presence of CTC was significantly associated shorter RFS (HR = 4.88 [95%CI: 1.93–12.35], P < 0.001). However, it could not predict patients’ OS (HR = 1.92 [95%CI: 0.93–3.96], P = 0.078). The following analyses using univariable values of each study also made the similar results (HR = 1.70 [95%CI: 0.83–3.45] for OS, HR = 3.79 [95%CI: 2.02–7.13] for RFS). Heterogeneity and publication bias were not significant, except one enrolled study.

Conclusions

The presence of CTC is not a significant prognostic indicator for OS of patients with HNSCC, although it could reflect the outcomes of loco-regional disease.

Time-varying effects of prognostic factors associated with long-term survival in breast cancer

The impact of some prognostic factors on breast cancer survival has been shown to vary with time since diagnosis. However, this phenomenon has not been evaluated in Asians. In the present study, 4886 patients were recruited from the Shanghai Breast Cancer Survival Study, a longitudinal study of patients diagnosed during 2002-2006, with a median follow-up time of 11.2 years. Cox model incorporating time-by-covariate interactions was used to describe the time-varying effects of prognostic factors related to overall survival and disease-free survival. Age ≥65 years showed a progressively negative effect on breast cancer prognosis over time, whereas tumour size >2 cm had a lasting and constant impact. Age significantly modified the effects of the tumour grade, nodal status and oestrogen receptor (ER) status on breast cancer survival. The detrimental effect of poorly differentiated tumours was time limited and more obvious in patients aged 45-54 years. Having ≥4 positive lymph nodes had a persistent and negative impact on prognosis, although it attenuated in later years; the phenomenon was more prominent in the 55-64-year age group. ER-positive status was protective in the first 3 years after diagnosis but was related to a higher risk of recurrence in later years; the time-point when ER-positive status turned into a risk factor was earlier in younger patients. These results suggest that older age, positive lymph node status, larger tumour size and ER-positive status are responsible for late death or recurrence in Asian breast cancer survivors. Extended endocrine therapy should be given earlier in younger ER-positive patients.

Systematic review of outcome measures following chemoradiotherapy for the treatment of anal cancer (CORMAC)

AIM

Six Phase III randomized trials have determined the effectiveness of chemoradiotherapy as primary treatment for anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC), but outcomes reported in these trials varied widely, hindering evidence synthesis. To improve reporting in all future trials, we aim to develop a core outcomes set (COS). As the first stage of COS development, we undertook a systematic review to summarize the outcomes reported in studies evaluating chemoradiotherapy for ASCC.

METHOD

Systematic literature searches identified studies evaluating radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy for ASCC. Outcomes and accompanying definitions were extracted verbatim and categorized into domains.

RESULTS

From 5170 abstracts, we identified 95 eligible studies, reporting 1192 outcomes and 533 unique terms. We collapsed these terms into 86 standardized outcomes and five domains: survival; disease activity; life impact [including quality of life (QoL)]; delivery of care; and toxicity. The most commonly reported domains were survival and disease activity, reported in 74 (86%) and 54 (62%) studies, respectively. No outcome was reported in every publication. Over half (43/86) of the standardized outcome terms were reported in fewer than five studies, and 21 (25%) were reported in a single study only. There was wide variation in definitions of disease-free survival, colostomy-free survival and progression-free survival (PFS). Anal continence was reported in only 35 (41%) studies.

CONCLUSION

Outcomes reported in studies evaluating chemoradiotherapy for ASCC were heterogenous and definitions varied widely. Outcomes likely to be important to patients, such as ano-rectal function, toxicity and QoL, have been neglected. A COS for future trials will address these issues.

Systematic review and consensus definitions for standardised endpoints in perioperative medicine: postoperative cancer outcomes

BACKGROUND

The Standardising Endpoints for Perioperative Medicine group was established to derive an appropriate set of endpoints for use in clinical trials related to anaesthesia and perioperative medicine. Anaesthetic or analgesic technique during cancer surgery with curative intent may influence the risk of recurrence or metastasis. However, given the current equipoise in the existing literature, prospective, randomised, controlled trials are necessary to test this hypothesis. As such, a cancer subgroup was formed to derive endpoints related to research in onco-anaesthesia based on a current evidence base, international consensus and expert guidance.

METHODS

We undertook a systematic review to identify measures of oncological outcome used in the oncological, surgical, and wider literature. A multiround Delphi consensus process that included up to 89 clinician-researchers was then used to refine a recommended list of endpoints.

RESULTS

We identified 90 studies in a literature search, which were the basis for a preliminary list of nine outcome measures and their definitions. A further two were added during the Delphi process. Response rates for Delphi rounds one, two, and three were 88% (n=9), 82% (n=73), and 100% (n=10), respectively. A final list of 10 defined endpoints was refined and developed, of which six secured approval by ≥70% of the group: cancer health related quality of life, days alive and out of hospital at 90 days, time to tumour progression, disease-free survival, cancer-specific survival, and overall survival (and 5-yr overall survival).

CONCLUSION

Standardised endpoints in clinical outcomes studies will support benchmarking and pooling (meta-analysis) of trials. It is therefore recommended that one or more of these consensus-derived endpoints should be considered for inclusion in clinical trials evaluating a causal effect of anaesthesia-analgesia technique on oncological outcomes.

Reporting and methodological quality of survival analysis in articles published in Chinese oncology journals

Survival analysis methods have gained widespread use in the filed of oncology. For achievement of reliable results, the methodological process and report quality is crucial. This review provides the first examination of methodological characteristics and reporting quality of survival analysis in articles published in leading Chinese oncology journals.To examine methodological and reporting quality of survival analysis, to identify some common deficiencies, to desirable precautions in the analysis, and relate advice for authors, readers, and editors.A total of 242 survival analysis articles were included to be evaluated from 1492 articles published in 4 leading Chinese oncology journals in 2013. Articles were evaluated according to 16 established items for proper use and reporting of survival analysis.The application rates of Kaplan-Meier, life table, log-rank test, Breslow test, and Cox proportional hazards model (Cox model) were 91.74%, 3.72%, 78.51%, 0.41%, and 46.28%, respectively, no article used the parametric method for survival analysis. Multivariate Cox model was conducted in 112 articles (46.28%). Follow-up rates were mentioned in 155 articles (64.05%), of which 4 articles were under 80% and the lowest was 75.25%, 55 articles were100%. The report rates of all types of survival endpoint were lower than 10%. Eleven of 100 articles which reported a loss to follow-up had stated how to treat it in the analysis. One hundred thirty articles (53.72%) did not perform multivariate analysis. One hundred thirty-nine articles (57.44%) did not define the survival time. Violations and omissions of methodological guidelines included no mention of pertinent checks for proportional hazard assumption; no report of testing for interactions and collinearity between independent variables; no report of calculation method of sample size. Thirty-six articles (32.74%) reported the methods of independent variable selection. The above defects could make potentially inaccurate, misleading of the reported results, or difficult to interpret.There are gaps in the conduct and reporting of survival analysis in studies published in Chinese oncology journals, severe deficiencies were noted. More endorsement by journals of the report guideline for survival analysis may improve articles quality, and the dissemination of reliable evidence to oncology clinicians. We recommend authors, readers, reviewers, and editors to consider survival analysis more carefully and cooperate more closely with statisticians and epidemiologists.

Thirty-Year Trends of Survival and Time-Varying Effects of Prognostic Factors in Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer-A Single Institution Experience

BACKGROUND

Metastatic breast cancer is generally considered an incurable disease. In our study we aimed to detect a time trend of survival over the past 30 years and account for time-varying effects of the prognostic factors.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 446 patients diagnosed with breast cancer at Saint Vincent de Paul Hospital, Lille, France between 1977 and 2013 who developed metastatic disease after a disease-free interval longer than 3 months and were followed-up for outcome. Data were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards model and presented as hazard ratios (HRs).

RESULTS

A monotonic time trend of survival was detected: a 2.6% lower risk of death for each increasing year over the past 30 years. Three prognostic factors had time-varying effects; the liver first metastasis (HR during the first 16 months of follow-up: 2.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.65-3.11), the bone first metastasis (HR during the first 24 months of follow-up: 0.56; 95% CI, 0.43-0.74), and the disease-free interval (HR during the first 16 months of follow-up: 0.90; 95% CI, 0.85-0.95). The brain first metastasis, multiple first metastases, the lymph node ratio, and estrogen receptor status had a constant effect over time.

CONCLUSION

In our study we detected a constant time trend of improvement in prognosis of metastatic breast cancer patients over the past 30 years and identified prognostic factors with time-varying effects.

Time-dependent and nonlinear effects of prognostic factors in nonmetastatic colorectal cancer

The survival risk following curative surgery for nonmetastatic colorectal cancer (CRC) may be over- or underestimated due to a lack of attention to nonlinear effects and violation of the proportional hazards assumption. In this paper, we aimed to detect and interpret the shape of time-dependent and nonlinear effects to improve the predictive performance of models of prognoses in nonmetastatic CRC patients. Data for nonmetastatic CRC patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2012 were obtained from the Surveillance Epidemiology End Results registry. Time-dependent and nonlinear effects were tested and plotted. A nonlinear model that used random survival forests was implemented. The estimated 5-year cancer-specific death rate was 17.95% (95% CI, 17.70-18.20%). Tumor invasion depth, lymph node status, age at diagnosis, tumor grade, histology and tumor site were significantly associated with cancer-specific death. Nonlinear and time-dependent effects on survival were detected. Positive lymph node number had a larger effect per unit of measurement at low values than at high values, whereas age at diagnosis showed the opposite pattern. Moreover, nonproportional hazards were detected for all covariates, indicating that the contributions of these risks to survival outcomes decreased over time. The nonlinear model predicted prognoses more accurately (C-index: 0.7934, 0.7933-0.7934) than did the Fine and Gray model (C-index: 0.7550, 0.7510-0.7583). The three-dimensional cumulative incidence curves derived from nonlinear model were used to identify the change points of the risk trends. It would be useful to implement these findings in treatment plans and follow-up surveillance in nonmetastatic CRC patients.

ILC2-modulated T cell-to-MDSC balance is associated with bladder cancer recurrence

Non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) is a highly recurrent tumor despite intravesical immunotherapy instillation with the bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine. In a prospective longitudinal study, we took advantage of BCG instillations, which increase local immune infiltration, to characterize immune cell populations in the urine of patients with NMIBC as a surrogate for the bladder tumor microenvironment. We observed an infiltration of neutrophils, T cells, monocytic myeloid-derived suppressor cells (M-MDSCs), and group 2 innate lymphoid cells (ILC2). Notably, patients with a T cell-to-MDSC ratio of less than 1 showed dramatically lower recurrence-free survival than did patients with a ratio of greater than 1. Analysis of early and later time points indicated that this patient dichotomy existed prior to BCG treatment. ILC2 frequency was associated with detectable IL-13 in the urine and correlated with the level of recruited M-MDSCs, which highly expressed IL-13 receptor α1. In vitro, ILC2 were increased and potently expressed IL-13 in the presence of BCG or tumor cells. IL-13 induced the preferential recruitment and suppressive function of monocytes. Thus, the T cell-to-MDSC balance, associated with a skewing toward type 2 immunity, may predict bladder tumor recurrence and influence the mortality of patients with muscle-invasive cancer. Moreover, these results underline the ILC2/IL-13 axis as a targetable pathway to curtail the M-MDSC compartment and improve bladder cancer treatment.

Clinical endpoints in trials of chemoradiation for patients with anal cancer

This Review examines the reporting of endpoints in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of radical chemoradiation for treatment of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus. The types, frequency, and definitions of clinical primary and secondary endpoints, and patient-reported outcome measures, reported in the methods and results sections of papers (and protocols, if available) were examined. Only six published RCTs comprising 2877 patients were identified. Primary outcome measures varied across the trials analysed: two used disease-free survival, one used progression-free survival, two used local failure, and one used colostomy-free survival. Secondary endpoints included overall survival, complete clinical response, quality of life, toxicity, and compliance. The definitions for primary and secondary endpoints were not consistent across trials, particularly for treatment failure (local, regional, and distant). We conclude that the quality of outcome reporting in RCTs of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus is inconsistent. A core set of outcomes, including clinical and patient-reported outcome measures with standardised definitions, is needed to improve the reporting of RCTs examining chemoradiation for treatment of patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the anus.