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Abstract
Ductal carcinoma in situ has been stable in incidence for a decade and has an excellent prognosis. Breast conservation therapy is safe and effective for most patients. Adjuvant whole breast radiation therapy is recommended to reduce the risk of local recurrence. Accelerated partial breast irradiation is a promising alternative to decrease toxicity and improve cosmetic results. Adjuvant hormonal therapy can reduce local recurrence, but should be used cautiously. Future directions in management include developing predictive tools for guidance for use of adjuvant therapy and selecting low-risk patients with ductal carcinoma in situ in whom surgery may be safely omitted.
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Affiliation(s)
- FangMeng Fu
- Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, 29 Xinquan Rd, DongJieKou SangQuan, Gulou Qu, Fuzhou Shi, Fujian Sheng 350001, China
| | - Richard C Gilmore
- Johns Hopkins Hospital, The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, 1800 Orleans Street, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
| | - Lisa K Jacobs
- Johns Hopkins Hospital, The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, 1800 Orleans Street, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA.
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Gan W, Huang JL, Zhang MX, Fu YP, Yi Y, Jing CY, Fan J, Zhou J, Qiu SJ. New nomogram predicts the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with negative preoperative serum AFP subjected to curative resection. J Surg Oncol 2018; 117:1540-1547. [PMID: 29572833 DOI: 10.1002/jso.25046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2017] [Accepted: 02/16/2018] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND There is currently no established model for predicting the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with negative alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) after curative resection. Therefore, the objective of this study was to establish a nomogram to identify the risk of recurrence in AFP-negative (<or = 20 ng/mL) patients with HCC. METHODS A retrospective study was conducted to establish the recurrence-free survival (RFS) nomogram in a training cohort of 326 AFP-negative HCC patients. The results were validated on a well-matched validation cohort in the literature. RESULTS Macrovascular tumour invasion (P = 0.018, HR = 1.642), macronodular cirrhosis (P < 0.001, HR = 2.128), tumor size (P = 0.004, HR = 1.691), and γ-glutamyl transferase (P = 0.039, HR = 1.496) were found to be independent risk factors for RFS in the training cohort, and all these factors were included in the nomogram. The C-index for RFS in the nomogram was 0.661, which was higher than that of the BCLC system (0.551), the CLIP score (0.537), and the prediction model of Ju (0.618). The high consistency between the nomogram prediction and actual observation was further demonstrated by the calibration curve. In the subsequent study, the better net benefit and higher threshold probability of the nomogram were determined by decision curve analysis, and these advantages were confirmed in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS The present RFS nomogram for AFP-negative HCC patients after curative resection provides an accurate and reliable prognostic model to facilitate recurrence surveillance. Once AFP-negative patients are predicted to have a high recurrence score, additional high-end imaging examinations, such as MRI or CT exams, should be considered, and the interval time of regular folow-up should be reduced.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Gan
- Department of Liver Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Liver Cancer Institute, Zhongshan Hospital and Shanghai Medical School, Fudan University, Key Laboratory for Carcinogenesis and Cancer Invasion, The Chinese Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Jin-Long Huang
- Department of Liver Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Liver Cancer Institute, Zhongshan Hospital and Shanghai Medical School, Fudan University, Key Laboratory for Carcinogenesis and Cancer Invasion, The Chinese Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Mei-Xia Zhang
- Department of Liver Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Liver Cancer Institute, Zhongshan Hospital and Shanghai Medical School, Fudan University, Key Laboratory for Carcinogenesis and Cancer Invasion, The Chinese Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Yi-Peng Fu
- Department of Liver Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Liver Cancer Institute, Zhongshan Hospital and Shanghai Medical School, Fudan University, Key Laboratory for Carcinogenesis and Cancer Invasion, The Chinese Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Yong Yi
- Department of Liver Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Liver Cancer Institute, Zhongshan Hospital and Shanghai Medical School, Fudan University, Key Laboratory for Carcinogenesis and Cancer Invasion, The Chinese Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Chu-Yu Jing
- Department of Liver Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Liver Cancer Institute, Zhongshan Hospital and Shanghai Medical School, Fudan University, Key Laboratory for Carcinogenesis and Cancer Invasion, The Chinese Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Jia Fan
- Department of Liver Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Liver Cancer Institute, Zhongshan Hospital and Shanghai Medical School, Fudan University, Key Laboratory for Carcinogenesis and Cancer Invasion, The Chinese Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Jian Zhou
- Department of Liver Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Liver Cancer Institute, Zhongshan Hospital and Shanghai Medical School, Fudan University, Key Laboratory for Carcinogenesis and Cancer Invasion, The Chinese Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
| | - Shuang-Jian Qiu
- Department of Liver Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Liver Cancer Institute, Zhongshan Hospital and Shanghai Medical School, Fudan University, Key Laboratory for Carcinogenesis and Cancer Invasion, The Chinese Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.,Biomedical Research Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
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