A Retrospective Study on Predicting Recurrence of Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Radical Therapy

Purpose

This study aimed to investigate the potential benefits of radical therapy in patients with stage B disease.

Patients and Methods

A retrospective analysis was conducted on a cohort of 437 patients diagnosed with stage B hepatocellular carcinoma, who underwent either hepatic resection (HR) or radiofrequency ablation (RFA) at the Cancer Institute and Hospital of Tianjin Medical University from May 2011 to May 2022. Multivariate COX regression analysis was performed to identify the independent prognostic factors related to recurrence-free survival (RFS). The performance of the developed nomogram was evaluated using various statistical measures, including the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Multivariate analysis revealed that tumor diameter, number of tumors, number of involved liver segments, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and systemic immune inflammation index (SII) were independent prognostic factors influencing patients' RFS, and these factors were incorporated into the nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram in the training cohort was 0.721, and the AUC at 2 and 3 years was 0.772 and 0.790, respectively. These values were appreciably higher than commonly used clinic staging systems and other predictive models. The calibration curve and DCA demonstrated good calibration and net benefit. Survival analysis comparing stage B patients who received radical treatment with stage A patients with multiple lesions did not reveal a significant difference in Kaplan-Meier survival curves (P=0.91).

Conclusion

The nomogram provided a precise prediction of the recurrence for stage B hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing radical treatment. Furthermore, certain stage B patients may benefit from radical treatment.

Extending Surgical Resection for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Beyond Barcelona Clinic for Liver Cancer (BCLC) Stage A: A Novel Application of the Modified BCLC Staging System

Objective

We aimed to prognosticate survival after surgical resection of HCC stratified by stage with amalgamation of the modified Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system and location of tumour.

Methods

This single-institutional retrospective cohort study included patients with HCC who underwent surgical resection between 1st January 2000 to 30th June 2016. Participants were divided into 6 different subgroups: A-u) Within MC with Unilobar lesions; A-b) Within MC + Bilobar lesions; B1-u) Out of MC + within Up-To-7 + Unilobar lesions; B1-b) Out of MC + within Up-to-7 + Bilobar lesions; B2-u) Out of MC + Out of Up-To-7 + Unilobar lesions; B2-b) Out of MC + Out of Up-To-7 + Bilobar lesions. A separate survival analysis was conducted for solitary HCC lesions according to three subgroups: A-S (Within MC); B1-S (Out of MC + within Up-To-7); B2-S (Out of MC + out of Up-To-7).

Results

A total of 794 of 1043 patients with surgical resection for HCC were analysed. Groups A-u (64.6%), A-b (58.4%) and B1-u (56.2%) had 5-year cumulative overall survival (OS) rates above 50% after surgical resection and median OS exceeding 60 months (P = 0.0001). The 5-year cumulative recurrence-free survival rates (RFS) were 40.4% (group A-u), 38.2% (group A-b), 36.3% (group B1-u), 24.6% (group B2-u), and 7.3% (group B2-b)(P=0.0001). For solitary lesions, the 5-year OS for the subgroups were A-S (65.1%), B1-S (56.0%) and B2-S (47.1%) (P = 0.0003). Compared to A-S, there was also a significant trend towards relatively poorer OS as the lesion sizes increased in B1-S (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.03–2.08) and B2-S (HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.25–2.18).

Conclusion

We adopted a novel approach combining the modified BCLC B sub-classification and dispersion of tumour to show that surgical resection in intermediate stage HCC can be robustly prognosticated. We found that size prognosticates resection outcomes in solitary tumours.