Association of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Changes in Patterns of Cancer-Related Mortality in the United States

Survival Among Patients With High-Risk Gastrointestinal Cancers During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Importance

Prior reports demonstrated that patients with cancer experienced worse outcomes from pandemic-related stressors and COVID-19 infection. Patients with certain malignant neoplasms, such as high-risk gastrointestinal (HRGI) cancers, may have been particularly affected.

Objective

To evaluate disruptions in care and outcomes among patients with HRGI cancers during the COVID-19 pandemic, assessing for signs of long-term changes in populations and survival.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study used data from the National Cancer Database to identify patients with HRGI cancer (esophageal, gastric, primary liver, or pancreatic) diagnosed between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2020. Data were analyzed between August 23 and September 4, 2023.

Main Outcome and Measures

Trends in monthly new cases and proportions by stage in 2020 were compared with the prior 2 years. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression were used to assess 1-year mortality in 2020 compared with 2018 to 2019. Proportional monthly trends and multivariable logistic regression were used to evaluate 30-day and 90-day mortality in 2020 compared with prior years.

Results

Of the 156 937 patients included in this study, 54 994 (35.0%) were aged 60 to 69 years and 100 050 (63.8%) were men. There was a substantial decrease in newly diagnosed HRGI cancers in March to May 2020, which returned to prepandemic levels by July 2020. For stage, there was a proportional decrease in the diagnosis of stage I (-3.9%) and stage II (-2.3%) disease, with an increase in stage IV disease (7.1%) during the early months of the pandemic. Despite a slight decrease in 1-year survival rates in 2020 (50.7% in 2018 and 2019 vs 47.4% in 2020), survival curves remained unchanged between years (all P > .05). After adjusting for confounders, diagnosis in 2020 was not associated with increased 1-year mortality compared with 2018 to 2019 (hazard ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.97-1.01). The rates of 30-day (2.1% in 2018, 2.0% in 2019, and 2.1% in 2020) and 90-day (4.3% in 2018, 4.4% in 2019, and 4.6% in 2020) operative mortality also remained similar.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this retrospective cohort study, a period of underdiagnosis and increase in stage IV disease was observed for HRGI cancers during the pandemic; however, there was no change in 1-year survival or operative mortality. These results demonstrate the risks associated with gaps in care and the tremendous efforts of the cancer community to ensure quality care delivery during the pandemic. Future research should investigate long-term survival changes among all cancer types as additional follow-up data are accrued.

Changes in cancer-related mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

Few studies have examined cancer-related mortality overall, never mind select cancer types, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data on cancer-related mortality (any mention in death certificates, multiple causes of death approach) was extracted from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER database. Changes in trends for age-standardized mortality rates through 1999-2021 were assessed by Joinpoint analysis. In total, 1 379 643 cancer-related deaths were registered in 2020-2021, with cancer selected as the underlying cause in 88%. After 2 decades of decline, age-standardized cancer-related mortality increased from 2019 to 2021 for all cancers (annual percentage change = 1.6%, 95% confidence interval = 0.6% to 2.6%), especially for prostate cancer (annual percentage change = 5.1%, 95% confidence interval = 2.2% to 8.2%) and hematologic cancers (annual percentage change = 4.8%, 95% confidence interval = 3.1% to 6.6%). Sharp peaks in cancer-related deaths for many cancer sites were observed during pandemic waves in both 2020 and 2021, mostly attributed to COVID-19 as the underlying cause. Multiple causes of death analyses are warranted to fully assess the impact of the pandemic on cancer-related mortality.

Financial Toxicity among Patients with Breast Cancer during the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States

This study reported the prevalence of financial distress (financial toxicity (FT)) and COVID-19-related economic stress in patients with breast cancer (BC). Patients with BC were recruited from the Ciitizen platform, Breastcancer.org, and patient advocacy groups between 30 March and 6 July 2021. FT was assessed with the COmprehensive Score for financial Toxicity (COST) instrument. COVID-19-related economic stress was assessed with the COVID-19 Stress Scale. Among the 669 patients, the mean age was 51.6 years; 9.4% reported a COVID-19 diagnosis. The prevalence rates of mild and moderate/severe FT were 36.8% and 22.4%, respectively. FT was more prevalent in patients with metastatic versus early BC (p < 0.001). The factors associated with FT included income ≤ USD 49,999 (adjusted odds ratio (adj OR) 6.271, p < 0.0001) and USD 50,000-USD 149,999 (adj OR 2.722, p < 0.0001); aged <50 years (adj OR 3.061, p = 0.0012) and 50-64 years (adj OR 3.444, p = 0.0002); living alone (adj OR 1.603, p = 0.0476); and greater depression severity (adj OR 1.155, p < 0.0001). Black patients (adj OR 2.165, p = 0.0133), patients with income ≤ USD 49,999 (adj OR 1.921, p = 0.0432), or greater depression severity (adj OR 1.090, p < 0.0001) were more likely to experience COVID-19-related economic stress. FT was common in patients with BC, particularly metastatic disease, during COVID-19. Multiple factors, especially lower income and greater depression severity were associated with financial difficulties during COVID-19.