Pursuing Better Biomarkers for Immunotherapy Response in Cancer Through a Crowdsourced Data Challenge

A community challenge to predict clinical outcomes after immune checkpoint blockade in non-small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND

Predictive biomarkers of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) efficacy are currently lacking for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Here, we describe the results from the Anti-PD-1 Response Prediction DREAM Challenge, a crowdsourced initiative that enabled the assessment of predictive models by using data from two randomized controlled clinical trials (RCTs) of ICIs in first-line metastatic NSCLC.

METHODS

Participants developed and trained models using public resources. These were evaluated with data from the CheckMate 026 trial (NCT02041533), according to the model-to-data paradigm to maintain patient confidentiality. The generalizability of the models with the best predictive performance was assessed using data from the CheckMate 227 trial (NCT02477826). Both trials were phase III RCTs with a chemotherapy control arm, which supported the differentiation between predictive and prognostic models. Isolated model containers were evaluated using a bespoke strategy that considered the challenges of handling transcriptome data from clinical trials.

RESULTS

A total of 59 teams participated, with 417 models submitted. Multiple predictive models, as opposed to a prognostic model, were generated for predicting overall survival, progression-free survival, and progressive disease status with ICIs. Variables within the models submitted by participants included tumor mutational burden (TMB), programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression, and gene-expression-based signatures. The best-performing models showed improved predictive power over reference variables, including TMB or PD-L1.

CONCLUSIONS

This DREAM Challenge is the first successful attempt to use protected phase III clinical data for a crowdsourced effort towards generating predictive models for ICI clinical outcomes and could serve as a blueprint for similar efforts in other tumor types and disease states, setting a benchmark for future studies aiming to identify biomarkers predictive of ICI efficacy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

CheckMate 026; NCT02041533, registered January 22, 2014. CheckMate 227; NCT02477826, registered June 23, 2015.

Multi-institutional prognostic modeling of survival outcomes in NSCLC patients treated with first-line immunotherapy using radiomics

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have emerged as one of the most promising first-line therapeutics in the management of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, only a subset of these patients responds to ICIs, highlighting the clinical need to develop better predictive and prognostic biomarkers. This study will leverage pre-treatment imaging profiles to develop survival risk models for NSCLC patients treated with first-line immunotherapy.

METHODS

Advanced NSCLC patients (n = 149) were retrospectively identified from two institutions who were treated with first-line ICIs. Radiomics features extracted from pretreatment imaging scans were used to build the predictive models for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). A compendium of five feature selection methods and seven machine learning approaches were utilized to build the survival risk models. The concordance index (C-index) was used to evaluate model performance.

RESULTS

From our results, we found several combinations of machine learning algorithms and feature selection methods to achieve similar performance. K-nearest neighbourhood (KNN) with ReliefF (RL) feature selection was the best-performing model to predict PFS (C-index = 0.61 and 0.604 in discovery and validation cohorts), while XGBoost with Mutual Information (MI) feature selection was the best-performing model for OS (C-index = 0.7 and 0.655 in discovery and validation cohorts).

CONCLUSION

The results of this study highlight the importance of implementing an appropriate feature selection method coupled with a machine learning strategy to develop robust survival models. With further validation of these models on external cohorts when available, this can have the potential to improve clinical decisions by systematically analyzing routine medical images.

The Future of Precision Oncology

Our understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying cancer development and evolution have evolved rapidly over recent years, and the variation from one patient to another is now widely recognized. Consequently, one-size-fits-all approaches to the treatment of cancer have been superseded by precision medicines that target specific disease characteristics, promising maximum clinical efficacy, minimal safety concerns, and reduced economic burden. While precision oncology has been very successful in the treatment of some tumors with specific characteristics, a large number of patients do not yet have access to precision medicines for their disease. The success of next-generation precision oncology depends on the discovery of new actionable disease characteristics, rapid, accurate, and comprehensive diagnosis of complex phenotypes within each patient, novel clinical trial designs with improved response rates, and worldwide access to novel targeted anticancer therapies for all patients. This review outlines some of the current technological trends, and highlights some of the complex multidisciplinary efforts that are underway to ensure that many more patients with cancer will be able to benefit from precision oncology in the near future.

Radiomics approaches to predict PD-L1 and PFS in advanced non-small cell lung patients treated with immunotherapy: a multi-institutional study

With the increasing use of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), there is an urgent need to identify biomarkers to stratify responders and non-responders using programmed death-ligand (PD-L1) expression, and to predict patient-specific outcomes such as progression free survival (PFS). The current study is aimed to determine the feasibility of building imaging-based predictive biomarkers for PD-L1 and PFS through systematically evaluating a combination of several machine learning algorithms with different feature selection methods. A retrospective, multicenter study of 385 advanced NSCLC patients amenable to ICIs was undertaken in two academic centers. Radiomic features extracted from pretreatment CT scans were used to build predictive models for PD-L1 and PFS (short-term vs. long-term survivors). We first employed the LASSO methodology followed by five feature selection methods and seven machine learning approaches to build the predictors. From our analyses, we found several combinations of feature selection methods and machine learning algorithms to achieve a similar performance. Logistic regression with ReliefF feature selection (AUC = 0.64, 0.59 in discovery and validation cohorts) and SVM with Anova F-test feature selection (AUC = 0.64, 0.63 in discovery and validation datasets) were the best-performing models to predict PD-L1 and PFS. This study elucidates the application of suitable feature selection approaches and machine learning algorithms to predict clinical endpoints using radiomics features. Through this study, we identified a subset of algorithms that should be considered in future investigations for building robust and clinically relevant predictive models.