A community challenge to predict clinical outcomes after immune checkpoint blockade in non-small cell lung cancer

BACKGROUND

Predictive biomarkers of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) efficacy are currently lacking for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Here, we describe the results from the Anti-PD-1 Response Prediction DREAM Challenge, a crowdsourced initiative that enabled the assessment of predictive models by using data from two randomized controlled clinical trials (RCTs) of ICIs in first-line metastatic NSCLC.

METHODS

Participants developed and trained models using public resources. These were evaluated with data from the CheckMate 026 trial (NCT02041533), according to the model-to-data paradigm to maintain patient confidentiality. The generalizability of the models with the best predictive performance was assessed using data from the CheckMate 227 trial (NCT02477826). Both trials were phase III RCTs with a chemotherapy control arm, which supported the differentiation between predictive and prognostic models. Isolated model containers were evaluated using a bespoke strategy that considered the challenges of handling transcriptome data from clinical trials.

RESULTS

A total of 59 teams participated, with 417 models submitted. Multiple predictive models, as opposed to a prognostic model, were generated for predicting overall survival, progression-free survival, and progressive disease status with ICIs. Variables within the models submitted by participants included tumor mutational burden (TMB), programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression, and gene-expression-based signatures. The best-performing models showed improved predictive power over reference variables, including TMB or PD-L1.

CONCLUSIONS

This DREAM Challenge is the first successful attempt to use protected phase III clinical data for a crowdsourced effort towards generating predictive models for ICI clinical outcomes and could serve as a blueprint for similar efforts in other tumor types and disease states, setting a benchmark for future studies aiming to identify biomarkers predictive of ICI efficacy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

CheckMate 026; NCT02041533, registered January 22, 2014. CheckMate 227; NCT02477826, registered June 23, 2015.

[Incidence and prognosis of olfactory and gustatory dysfunctions related to infection of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron strain: a national multi-center survey of 35 566 population]

Objective: This cross-sectional investigation aimed to determine the incidence, clinical characteristics, prognosis, and related risk factors of olfactory and gustatory dysfunctions related to infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron strain in mainland China. Methods: Data of patients with SARS-CoV-2 from December 28, 2022, to February 21, 2023, were collected through online and offline questionnaires from 45 tertiary hospitals and one center for disease control and prevention in mainland China. The questionnaire included demographic information, previous health history, smoking and alcohol drinking, SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, olfactory and gustatory function before and after infection, other symptoms after infection, as well as the duration and improvement of olfactory and gustatory dysfunction. The self-reported olfactory and gustatory functions of patients were evaluated using the Olfactory VAS scale and Gustatory VAS scale. Results: A total of 35 566 valid questionnaires were obtained, revealing a high incidence of olfactory and taste dysfunctions related to infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron strain (67.75%). Females(χ2=367.013, P<0.001) and young people(χ2=120.210, P<0.001) were more likely to develop these dysfunctions. Gender(OR=1.564, 95%CI: 1.487-1.645), SARS-CoV-2 vaccination status (OR=1.334, 95%CI: 1.164-1.530), oral health status (OR=0.881, 95%CI: 0.839-0.926), smoking history (OR=1.152, 95%CI=1.080-1.229), and drinking history (OR=0.854, 95%CI: 0.785-0.928) were correlated with the occurrence of olfactory and taste dysfunctions related to SARS-CoV-2(above P<0.001). 44.62% (4 391/9 840) of the patients who had not recovered their sense of smell and taste also suffered from nasal congestion, runny nose, and 32.62% (3 210/9 840) suffered from dry mouth and sore throat. The improvement of olfactory and taste functions was correlated with the persistence of accompanying symptoms(χ2=10.873, P=0.001). The average score of olfactory and taste VAS scale was 8.41 and 8.51 respectively before SARS-CoV-2 infection, but decreased to3.69 and 4.29 respectively after SARS-CoV-2 infection, and recovered to 5.83and 6.55 respectively at the time of the survey. The median duration of olfactory and gustatory dysfunctions was 15 days and 12 days, respectively, with 0.5% (121/24 096) of patients experiencing these dysfunctions for more than 28 days. The overall self-reported improvement rate of smell and taste dysfunctions was 59.16% (14 256/24 096). Gender(OR=0.893, 95%CI: 0.839-0.951), SARS-CoV-2 vaccination status (OR=1.334, 95%CI: 1.164-1.530), history of head and facial trauma(OR=1.180, 95%CI: 1.036-1.344, P=0.013), nose (OR=1.104, 95%CI: 1.042-1.171, P=0.001) and oral (OR=1.162, 95%CI: 1.096-1.233) health status, smoking history(OR=0.765, 95%CI: 0.709-0.825), and the persistence of accompanying symptoms (OR=0.359, 95%CI: 0.332-0.388) were correlated with the recovery of olfactory and taste dysfunctions related to SARS-CoV-2 (above P<0.001 except for the indicated values). Conclusion: The incidence of olfactory and taste dysfunctions related to infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron strain is high in mainland China, with females and young people more likely to develop these dysfunctions. Active and effective intervention measures may be required for cases that persist for a long time. The recovery of olfactory and taste functions is influenced by several factors, including gender, SARS-CoV-2 vaccination status, history of head and facial trauma, nasal and oral health status, smoking history, and persistence of accompanying symptoms.

MetaTiME integrates single-cell gene expression to characterize the meta-components of the tumor immune microenvironment

Recent advances in single-cell RNA sequencing have shown heterogeneous cell types and gene expression states in the non-cancerous cells in tumors. The integration of multiple scRNA-seq datasets across tumors can indicate common cell types and states in the tumor microenvironment (TME). We develop a data driven framework, MetaTiME, to overcome the limitations in resolution and consistency that result from manual labelling using known gene markers. Using millions of TME single cells, MetaTiME learns meta-components that encode independent components of gene expression observed across cancer types. The meta-components are biologically interpretable as cell types, cell states, and signaling activities. By projecting onto the MetaTiME space, we provide a tool to annotate cell states and signature continuums for TME scRNA-seq data. Leveraging epigenetics data, MetaTiME reveals critical transcriptional regulators for the cell states. Overall, MetaTiME learns data-driven meta-components that depict cellular states and gene regulators for tumor immunity and cancer immunotherapy.

Discovery of Targets for Immune-Metabolic Antitumor Drugs Identifies Estrogen-Related Receptor Alpha

Drugs that kill tumors through multiple mechanisms have the potential for broad clinical benefits. Here, we first developed an in silico multiomics approach (BipotentR) to find cancer cell-specific regulators that simultaneously modulate tumor immunity and another oncogenic pathway and then used it to identify 38 candidate immune-metabolic regulators. We show the tumor activities of these regulators stratify patients with melanoma by their response to anti-PD-1 using machine learning and deep neural approaches, which improve the predictive power of current biomarkers. The topmost identified regulator, ESRRA, is activated in immunotherapy-resistant tumors. Its inhibition killed tumors by suppressing energy metabolism and activating two immune mechanisms: (i) cytokine induction, causing proinflammatory macrophage polarization, and (ii) antigen-presentation stimulation, recruiting CD8+ T cells into tumors. We also demonstrate a wide utility of BipotentR by applying it to angiogenesis and growth suppressor evasion pathways. BipotentR (http://bipotentr.dfci.harvard.edu/) provides a resource for evaluating patient response and discovering drug targets that act simultaneously through multiple mechanisms.

SIGNIFICANCE

BipotentR presents resources for evaluating patient response and identifying targets for drugs that can kill tumors through multiple mechanisms concurrently. Inhibition of the topmost candidate target killed tumors by suppressing energy metabolism and effects on two immune mechanisms. This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 517.

[Endoscopic resection of type D trigeminal schwannoma through nasal sinus approach]

Objective: To examine the feasibility and surgical approach of removing type D trigeminal schwannoma through nasal cavity and nasal sinus under endoscope. Methods: Eleven patients with trigeminal schwannoma who were treated in the Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from December 2014 to August 2021 were analyzed retrospectively in this study. There were 7 males and 4 females, aged (47.5±13.5) years (range: 12 to 64 years). The neoplasm involved the pterygopalatine fossa, infratemporal fossa, ethmoidal sinus, sphenoid sinus, cavernous sinus, and middle cranial fossa. The size of tumors were between 1.6 cm×2.0 cm×2.0 cm and 5.7 cm×6.0 cm×6.0 cm. Under general anesthesia, the tumors were resected through the transpterygoid approach in 4 cases, through the prelacrimal recess approach in 4 cases, through the extended prelacrimal recess approach in 2 cases, and through the endoscopic medial maxillectomy approach in 1 case. The nasal endoscopy and imaging examination were conducted to detect whether neoplasm recurred or not, and the main clinical symptoms during follow-up. Results: All the surgical procedures were performed under endonasal endoscope, including Gross total resection in 10 patients. The tumor of a 12-year-old patient was not resected completely due to huge tumor size and limited operation space. One patient was accompanied by two other schwannomas located in the occipital region and the ipsilateral parotid gland region originating from the zygomatic branch of the facial nerve, both of which were removed concurrently. After tumor resection, the dura mater of middle cranial fossa was directly exposed in the nasal sinus in 2 cases, including 1 case accompanied by cerebrospinal fluid leakage which was reconstructed by a free mucosal flap obtained from the middle turbinate, the other case was packed by the autologous fat to protect the dura mater. The operation time was (M(IQR)) 180 (160) minutes (range: 120 to 485 minutes). No complications and deaths were observed. No recurrence was observed in the 10 patients with total tumor resection during a 58 (68) months' (range: 10 to 90 months) follow-up. No obvious change was observed in the facial appearance of all patients during the follow-up. Conclusion: Type D trigeminal schwannoma involving pterygopalatine fossa and infratemporal fossa can be removed safely through purely endoscopic endonasal approach by selecting the appropriate approach according to the size and involvement of the tumor.

Hippo Signaling Pathway Regulates Cancer Cell-Intrinsic MHC-II Expression

MHC-II is known to be mainly expressed on the surface of antigen-presenting cells. Evidence suggests MHC-II is also expressed by cancer cells and may be associated with better immunotherapy responses. However, the role and regulation of MHC-II in cancer cells remain unclear. In this study, we leveraged data mining and experimental validation to elucidate the regulation of MHC-II in cancer cells and its role in modulating the response to immunotherapy. We collated an extensive collection of omics data to examine cancer cell-intrinsic MHC-II expression and its association with immunotherapy outcomes. We then tested the functional relevance of cancer cell-intrinsic MHC-II expression using a syngeneic transplantation model. Finally, we performed data mining to identify pathways potentially involved in the regulation of MHC-II expression, and experimentally validated candidate regulators. Analyses of preimmunotherapy clinical samples in the CheckMate 064 trial revealed that cancer cell-intrinsic MHC-II protein was positively correlated with more favorable immunotherapy outcomes. Comprehensive meta-analyses of multiomics data from an exhaustive collection of data revealed that MHC-II is heterogeneously expressed in various solid tumors, and its expression is particularly high in melanoma. Using a syngeneic transplantation model, we further established that melanoma cells with high MHC-II responded better to anti-PD-1 treatment. Data mining followed by experimental validation revealed the Hippo signaling pathway as a potential regulator of melanoma MHC-II expression. In summary, we identified the Hippo signaling pathway as a novel regulator of cancer cell-intrinsic MHC-II expression. These findings suggest modulation of MHC-II in melanoma could potentially improve immunotherapy response.

Machine learning on syngeneic mouse tumor profiles to model clinical immunotherapy response

Most patients with cancer are refractory to immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) therapy, and proper patient stratification remains an open question. Primary patient data suffer from high heterogeneity, low accessibility, and lack of proper controls. In contrast, syngeneic mouse tumor models enable controlled experiments with ICB treatments. Using transcriptomic and experimental variables from >700 ICB-treated/control syngeneic mouse tumors, we developed a machine learning framework to model tumor immunity and identify factors influencing ICB response. Projected on human immunotherapy trial data, we found that the model can predict clinical ICB response. We further applied the model to predicting ICB-responsive/resistant cancer types in The Cancer Genome Atlas, which agreed well with existing clinical reports. Last, feature analysis implicated factors associated with ICB response. In summary, our computational framework based on mouse tumor data reliably stratified patients regarding ICB response, informed resistance mechanisms, and has the potential for wide applications in disease treatment studies.

[Cell heterogeneity of laryngeal carcinoma and evolution trajectory of epithelial cells]

Objective: To analyze the classification and functions of cell subsets in laryngeal carcinoma and metastatic lymph nodes, and to explore the evolution trajectory of epithelial cells to tumor cells. Methods: Single-cell RNA sequencing was performed on 5 cases of laryngeal cancer, matched metastatic lymph nodes and 3 normal tissues. Patients were admitted to Ningbo Medical Center Lihuili Hospital from October 22, 2019 to December 16, all patients were male, aged 53-70 years old. Cell subsets of the above-mentioned tissues were analyzed by the Seurat, and the biological functions of cell subpopulation were investigated by functional enrichment analysis. Malignant epithelial cells were identified using copy number variation (CNV). The evolutionary trajectory of epithelial cells to cancer cells was analyzed by cell trajectory analysis, and cancerous transitional cells were identified. The highly expressed genes in transitional cells were analyzed by the FindAllMarker of the Seurat and verified by immunohistochemistry. Results: A total of 66 969 high-quality cells were obtained in 9 major clusters: epithelial cells, T cells, B cells, fibroblasts, endothelial cells, myeloid cells, mast cells, plasmacytoid dendritic cells and nerve cells. The first 5 cell clusters were divided into 8, 6, 4, 3 and 2 subgroups, respectively. Four epithelial cell subsets (C0, C1, C2 and C5) were derived from tumor tissues and metastatic lymph nodes, and had high levels of CNV and tumor cell content. Cell trajectory analysis showed that the evolution trajectory of epithelial cells was from normal epithelial subpopulation C4 to early cancerous cell population C0, which differentiated into three major malignant cell subsets C1, C3, and C5. Epithelial cell C0 may represent the transitional cell population of carcinogenesis, and were enriched in biological processes such as epithelial-mesenchymal transformation and angiogenesis. C0 highly expressed sulforaphane (SFN) which may be related to the occurrence and development of cancer. Immunohistochemistry confirmed that SFN was highly expressed in tumor tissues and metastatic lymph nodes compared with paracancerous tissues. Conclusion: Single-cell sequencing may be used to elucidate the diversity of cells and functions in laryngeal carcinoma tissues and metastatic lymph nodes, and cell population C0 plays a key role in the evolution of cells.

In vivo CRISPR screens identify the E3 ligase Cop1 as a modulator of macrophage infiltration and cancer immunotherapy target

Despite remarkable clinical efficacy of immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) in cancer treatment, ICB benefits for triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) remain limited. Through pooled in vivo CRISPR knockout (KO) screens in syngeneic TNBC mouse models, we found that deletion of the E3 ubiquitin ligase Cop1 in cancer cells decreases secretion of macrophage-associated chemokines, reduces tumor macrophage infiltration, enhances anti-tumor immunity, and strengthens ICB response. Transcriptomics, epigenomics, and proteomics analyses revealed that Cop1 functions through proteasomal degradation of the C/ebpδ protein. The Cop1 substrate Trib2 functions as a scaffold linking Cop1 and C/ebpδ, which leads to polyubiquitination of C/ebpδ. In addition, deletion of the E3 ubiquitin ligase Cop1 in cancer cells stabilizes C/ebpδ to suppress expression of macrophage chemoattractant genes. Our integrated approach implicates Cop1 as a target for improving cancer immunotherapy efficacy in TNBC by regulating chemokine secretion and macrophage infiltration in the tumor microenvironment.

Therapeutically Increasing MHC-I Expression Potentiates Immune Checkpoint Blockade

Immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) therapy revolutionized cancer treatment, but many patients with impaired MHC-I expression remain refractory. Here, we combined FACS-based genome-wide CRISPR screens with a data-mining approach to identify drugs that can upregulate MHC-I without inducing PD-L1. CRISPR screening identified TRAF3, a suppressor of the NFκB pathway, as a negative regulator of MHC-I but not PD-L1. The Traf3-knockout gene expression signature is associated with better survival in ICB-naïve patients with cancer and better ICB response. We then screened for drugs with similar transcriptional effects as this signature and identified Second Mitochondria-derived Activator of Caspase (SMAC) mimetics. We experimentally validated that the SMAC mimetic birinapant upregulates MHC-I, sensitizes cancer cells to T cell-dependent killing, and adds to ICB efficacy. Our findings provide preclinical rationale for treating tumors expressing low MHC-I expression with SMAC mimetics to enhance sensitivity to immunotherapy. The approach used in this study can be generalized to identify other drugs that enhance immunotherapy efficacy. SIGNIFICANCE: MHC-I loss or downregulation in cancer cells is a major mechanism of resistance to T cell-based immunotherapies. Our study reveals that birinapant may be used for patients with low baseline MHC-I to enhance ICB response. This represents promising immunotherapy opportunities given the biosafety profile of birinapant from multiple clinical trials.This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 1307.

Clonal tracing reveals diverse patterns of response to immune checkpoint blockade

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) therapy has improved patient survival in a variety of cancers, but only a minority of cancer patients respond. Multiple studies have sought to identify general biomarkers of ICB response, but elucidating the molecular and cellular drivers of resistance for individual tumors remains challenging. We sought to determine whether a tumor with defined genetic background exhibits a stereotypic or heterogeneous response to ICB treatment.

RESULTS

We establish a unique mouse system that utilizes clonal tracing and mathematical modeling to monitor the growth of each cancer clone, as well as the bulk tumor, in response to ICB. We find that tumors derived from the same clonal populations showed heterogeneous ICB response and diverse response patterns. Primary response is associated with higher immune infiltration and leads to enrichment of pre-existing ICB-resistant cancer clones. We further identify several cancer cell-intrinsic gene expression signatures associated with ICB resistance, including increased interferon response genes and glucocorticoid response genes. These findings are supported by clinical data from ICB treatment cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates diverse response patterns from the same ancestor cancer cells in response to ICB. This suggests the value of monitoring clonal constitution and tumor microenvironment over time to optimize ICB response and to design new combination therapies. Furthermore, as ICB response may enrich for cancer cell-intrinsic resistance signatures, this can affect interpretations of tumor RNA-seq data for response-signature association studies.

[Predictive value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in 30-day mortality of patients with acute paraquat poisoning]

Objective: To investigate the predictive value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) in 30-day mortality of patients with acute paraquat poisoning. Methods: We respectively reviewed the clinical parameters of 115 patients with acute paraquat poisoning. They were divided into survival (n=64) and non-survival (n=51) groups based on their 30-day outcome. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify risk factors of 30-day mortality. Receiver operating curve (ROC) test was applied to analysis to the predictive value of NLR in 30-day mortality ofacute paraquat poisoning patients. The correlations between NLR and severity index of paraquat poisoning (SIPP) were analyzed using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. Results: Of the 115patients included in the study, 54 (46.96%) patients were males and 61 (53.04%) were females with a mean age of 38.96±13.58 years. The total mortality in 30-day was 44.35% (51/115) . The NLR at admission was an independently risk factor of 30-day mortality of patients with acute paraquat poisoning (OR 1.477, 95%CI 1.035-2.107, P<0.05) . The NLR to predict the death of the area under the ROC curve was 0.894 (95%CI: 0.8212-0.9663, P<0.01) ; the optimal cutoff threshold was 11.71; the sensitivity was 71.79% and the specificity was 94.29%; the positive predictive value was 93.33%and negative predictive value of 75.00%. Meanwhile, the positive likelihood ratio was 12.57 and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.30. The NLR was significantly associated with SIPP (Spearman rho 0.525; P<0.01) and it was significantly higher in patients with SIPP of ten or higher than in those with an SIPP less than 10 (15.02±12.40 vs. 6.19±2.54, P<0.05) . Conclusion: The increased NLR at admission was an independently risk factor of 30-day mortality of patients with acute paraquat poisoning and it was significantly correlated with SIPP score. Therefore, NLR was useful for predicting prognosis of patients with acute paraquat poisoning.