Toward Convergence Disaster Research: Building Integrative Theories Using Simulation

Scholars across disciplines use simulation methods as tools to build theories; however, the full potential of simulation methods has not been fully used for building theories in convergence disaster research. Simulation methods could provide four unique opportunities for building theories for convergence disaster research. First, simulation methods could help researchers model the underlying mechanisms of disaster phenomena by enabling integration of qualitative and quantitative data. Second, they could help researchers specify and characterize the mechanisms affecting specific disaster phenomena by facilitating integration of empirical information with existing theoretical elements from different disciplines. Third, simulation methods could enable multilevel understanding of relationships between factors influencing disaster phenomena and emergent behaviors across different levels of analysis (e.g., individual, household, neighborhood, and community levels). Fourth, simulation methods could help researchers integrate theoretical elements on disasters across different disciplines (e.g., engineering, social science, sociology, and epidemiology) for a more convergent understanding of complex relationships affecting resilience at different levels.

Connectionist interpretation of the association between cognitive dissonance and attention switching

A novel connectionist model accounting for cognitive dissonance is described, in which the concepts of self and attention switching are considered. The model is composed of a unit corresponding to self, a bistable pair comprising two units relevant to two dissonant cognitions, and links whose weights correspond to cognitive evaluations. The model makes it possible to use mathematical formulas to represent the cognitive-dissonance process. Analysis reveals that the model fits experimental data of major paradigms in cognitive dissonance theory. The model shows that attention switching, which is produced by internal and external stimuli, causes building-up of cognitive dissonance and retardation of its reduction. The psychological phenomenon of selective exposure is interpreted on the basis of the operation of the model.

Evolution of the interpersonal conflict paradigm

Using Brunswik’s (1952) lens model framework, Hammond (1965) proposed interpersonal conflict theory to explain the nature, source, and resolution of disagreement or “cognitive conflict” between parties performing judgment tasks. An early review by Brehmer (1976) highlighted the potential of this approach in, for example, understanding the structure of cognitive conflicts, and the effect of task and person variables on judgment policy change and conflict resolution. However, our bibliographic and content reviews from 1976 to the present day demonstrate that research on cognitive conflict using the lens model has declined sharply, while research on “task conflict” has grown dramatically. There has also been a shift to less theoretical precision and methodological rigor. We discuss possible reasons for these developments, and suggest ways in which lens model research on cognitive conflict can be revitalized by borrowing from recent theoretical and methodological advances in the field of judgment and decision making.

Designing environmental campaigns by using agent-based simulations: strategies for changing environmental attitudes

Agent-based computer simulation was used to create artificial communities in which each individual was constructed according to the principles of the elaboration likelihood model of Petty and Cacioppo [1986. The elaboration likelihood model of persuasion. In: Berkowitz, L. (Ed.), Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. Academic Press, New York, NY, pp. 123-205]. Campaigning strategies and community characteristics were varied systematically to understand and test their impact on attitudes towards environmental protection. The results show that strong arguments influence a green (environmentally concerned) population with many contacts most effectively, while peripheral cues have the greatest impact on a non-green population with fewer contacts. Overall, deeper information scrutiny increases the impact of strong arguments but is especially important for convincing green populations. Campaigns involving person-to-person communication are superior to mass-media campaigns because they can be adapted to recipients' characteristics.

Why is enacted social support associated with increased distress? Using simulation to test two possible sources of spuriousness

Although perceiving that social support is available is often associated with psychological benefits in times of stress, there is evidence that actually receiving support is associated with increased distress. To assess whether this latter association could be spurious, the authors conducted computer simulation studies to examine two theoretical models that could give rise to it. Study 1 examined a process whereby distress leads to provision of support rather than the reverse. Study 2 examined a process whereby an adverse event increases both support and distress. In both cases, substantial spurious associations were produced only when parameter values were markedly unrealistic. It was concluded that these possible sources of spuriousness are insufficient to explain the association between support and distress found in naturalistic studies.

Assessing Aggressive Behavior in Children

Abstract. It is hypothesized that marginal behavioral deviations, through their aggregation, may generate impressions of discomfort and disturbance, leading in their turn to progressive social seclusion, lower self-esteem, and maladjustment. The article describes an attempt to assess the development of a stable aggressive behavior, by means of a neuro-fuzzy model of the relationships between sociometric predictors (popularity/refusal rates among peers, hyperactivity, prosocial behavior) and yearly variations in physical and verbal aggressive conduct in children. A hardly noticeable initial difference (classification into marginally aggressive and marginally nonaggressive) is sufficient to lead to relevant differences, such as a resilience to change the judged aggressive level in the presence of changes of sociometric predictors for marginally aggressive children only.