Improving early clinical trial phase identification of promising therapeutics

Thrombolysis experience in Costa Rica compared against individual patient data from two randomized controlled trials

OBJECTIVES

We sought to compare thrombolysis outcomes from the Costa Rican Stroke Registry Program (CRSRP) with published individual patient data from NINDS and CLOTBUST-ER trials using matching and outcome modeling from randomized clinical trials (RCTs).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective observational study matching subjects on baseline characteristics, from the CRSRP, the control arm of CLOTBUST-ER, and the interventional arm of NINDS trials. Day 7-10/discharge modified Rankin Score (mRS), and early mortality was compared between matched subjects. A mortality model derived from RCTs was developed, and outcomes were compared at similar baseline NIHSS scores. CRSRP symptomatic hemorrhage (SICH) rate was compared with an Ibero-American cohort (IAC).

RESULTS

Of 540 CRSRP patients, 351 received rt-PA under 3 hours and were matched with NINDS subjects yielding 292 pairs; 161 CRSRP subjects treated within 4.5 hours were matched with CLOTBUST-ER subjects resulting in 151 pairs. The proportion of patients achieving excellent outcomes (mRS 0-1) did not differ between CRSRP and either NINDS or CLOTBUST-ER (CRSRP vs NINDS: 36.6% vs 32.9%, p=0.3; CRSRP vs CLOTBUST-ER: 26.5% vs 24.5%, p=0.8). Mortality was higher for CRSRP vs CLOTBUST-ER (7.3% vs 0.7%, p=0.006), but not vs NINDS (6.5% vs 4.5%, p=0.4). A pooled mortality model derived from 15 RCTs representing 4410 patients (R²=0.39) showed CRSRP and NINDS within expected mortality, while CLOTBUST-ER showed lower than expected mortality. CRSRP SICH rate equaled IAC (5.7% vs 5.7%; p=0.9).

CONCLUSIONS

Functional outcomes and SICH of thrombolysed Costa Rican patients compared favorably with published datasets, with a potential increase in early mortality.

Risk of selection bias assessment in the NINDS rt-PA stroke study

OBJECTIVES

The NINDS rt-PA Stroke Study is frequently cited in support of alteplase for acute ischemic stroke within 3 h of symptom onset. Multiple post-hoc reanalyses of this trial have been published to adjust for a baseline imbalance in stroke severity. We performed a risk of selection bias assessment and reanalyzed trial data to determine if the etiology of this baseline imbalance was more likely due to random chance or randomization errors.

METHODS

A risk of selection bias assessment was conducted using signaling questions from the Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 (ROB 2) tool. Four sensitivity analyses were conducted on the trial data based on the randomization process: assessment of imbalances in allocation in unique strata; adherence to a pre-specified restriction on randomization between time strata at each randomization center; assessment of differences in baseline computed tomography (CT) results in unique strata; and comparison of baseline characteristics between allocation groups within each time strata. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to compare reported treatment effects with revised treatment effects after adjustment of baseline imbalances identified in the sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Based on criteria from the ROB 2 tool, the risk of bias arising from the randomization process was high. Sensitivity analyses found 11 of 16 unique strata deviated from the expected 1:1 allocation ratio. Three randomization centers violated an apriori rule regarding a maximum difference in allocation between the time strata. Three unique strata had imbalances in baseline CT results that prognostically favored alteplase. Four imbalances in baseline characteristics were identified in the 91-180-min time stratum that all prognostically favored alteplase and were consistent with a larger alteplase treatment effect size compared to the 0-90-min time stratum. After adjustments for baseline imbalances, all reported treatment effects were reduced. Three out of seven originally positive reported results were revised to non-significant.

CONCLUSION

This risk of selection bias assessment revealed a high risk of selection bias in the NINDS rt-PA Stroke Study. Sensitivity analyses conducted based on the randomization process supported this assessment. Baseline imbalances in the trial were more likely due to randomization errors than random chance. Adjusted analyses accounting for baseline imbalances revealed a reduction in reported treatment effects supporting the presence of selection bias in the trial. Treatment decisions and guideline recommendations based on the original treatment effect reported in the NINDS rt-PA Stroke Study should be done cautiously.

Pooled analysis suggests benefit of catheter-based hematoma removal for intracerebral hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

To develop models of outcome for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) to identify promising and futile interventions based on their early phase results without need for correction for baseline imbalances.

METHODS

We developed a pooled outcome model from the control arms of randomized control trials and tested different interventions against the model at comparable baseline conditions. Eligible clinical trials and large case series were identified from multiple library databases. Models based on baseline factors reported in the control arms were tested for the ability to predict functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale score) and mortality. Interventions were grouped into blood pressure control, fibrinolytic-assisted hematoma evacuation, hemostatic medications, and neuroprotective agents. Statistical intervals around the model were generated at the p = 0.1 level to screen how each trial's outcome compared to expected outcome.

RESULTS

Fourteen control arms with 3,386 patients were used to develop 7 alternate models for functional outcome. The model incorporating baseline NIH Stroke Scale, age, and hematoma volume yielded the best fit (adjusted R ² = 0.89). All early phase treatments that eventually resulted in negative late phase trials were identified as negative by this method. Early phase fibrinolytic-assisted hematoma evacuation studies showed the most promise trending toward improved functional outcome with no suggestion of an increase in mortality, supporting its further study.

CONCLUSIONS

We successfully developed an outcome model for ICH that identified interventions destined to be negative while identifying a promising one. Such an approach may assist in prioritizing resources prior to multicenter trial.

Influence of Admission Blood Glucose in Predicting Outcome in Patients With Spontaneous Intracerebral Hematoma

Background and Aims: Hyperglycemia or elevated blood glucose levels have been associated with poor outcomes in patients with ischemic stroke yet control of hyperglycemia has not resulted in good outcomes. High admission blood glucose (ABG) values have been mitigated by other poor prognosticators like large hematoma volume, intraventricular extension (IVE) of hematoma and poor GCS. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of blood glucose levels at admission, on mortality and functional outcomes at discharge and 3 months follow up. Methods: This was a retrospective observational study conducted at a tertiary care. Patients with spontaneous SICH were enrolled from a prospective SICH register maintained at our hospital. Blood glucose values were recorded on admission. Patients with traumatic hematomas, vascular malformations, aneurysms, and coagulation abnormalities were excluded from our study. Results: A total of 510 patients were included in the study. We dichotomised our cohort into two groups, group A with ABG>160 mg/dl and group B with ABG<160 mg/dl. Mean blood glucose levels in these two groups were 220.73 mg/dl and 124.37 mg/dl respectively, with group A having twice the mortality. mRS at discharge and 3 months was better in Group B (p ≤ 0.001) as compared to Group A. Age, GCS, volume of hematoma, ABG, IVE and Hydrocephalus were significant predictors of mortality and poor outcome on univariate analysis with a p < 0.05. The relationship between ABG and mortality (P = 0.249, 95% CI 0.948-1.006) and outcome (P = 0.538, 95% CI 0.997-1.005) failed to reach statistical significance on multivariate logistic regression. Age, Volume of hematoma and GCS were stronger predictors of mortality and morbidity. Conclusion: Admission blood glucose levels was not an independent predictor of mortality in our study when adjusted with age, GCS, and hematoma volume. The effect of high ABG on SICH outcome is probably multifactorial and warrants further research.

Efficacy of Novel Carbon Nanoparticle Antioxidant Therapy in a Severe Model of Reversible Middle Cerebral Artery Stroke in Acutely Hyperglycemic Rats

INTRODUCTION

While oxidative stress can be measured during transient cerebral ischemia, antioxidant therapies for ischemic stroke have been clinically unsuccessful. Many antioxidants are limited in their range and/or capacity for quenching radicals and can generate toxic intermediates overwhelming depleted endogenous protection. We developed a new antioxidant class, 40 nm × 2 nm carbon nanoparticles, hydrophilic carbon clusters, conjugated to poly(ethylene glycol) termed PEG-HCCs. These particles are high-capacity superoxide dismutase mimics, are effective against hydroxyl radical, and restore the balance between nitric oxide and superoxide in the vasculature. Here, we report the effects of PEG-HCCs administered during reperfusion after transient middle cerebral artery occlusion (tMCAO) by suture in the rat under hyperglycemic conditions. Hyperglycemia occurs in one-third of stroke patients and worsens clinical outcome. In animal models, this worsening occurs largely by accelerating elaboration of reactive oxygen species (ROS) during reperfusion.

METHODS

PEG-HCCs were studied for their protective ability against hydrogen peroxide in b.End3 brain endothelial cell line and E17 primary cortical neuron cultures. In vivo, hyperglycemia was induced by streptozotocin injection 2 days before tMCAO. 58 Male Sprague-Dawley rats were analyzed. They were injected IV with PBS or PEG-HCCs (4 mg/kg 2×) at the time of recanalization after either 90- or 120-min occlusion. Rats were survived for up to 3 days, and infarct volume characteristics and neurological functional outcome (modified Bederson Score) were assessed.

RESULTS

PEG-HCCs were protective against hydrogen peroxide in both culture models. In vivo improvement was found after PEG-HCCs with 90-min ischemia with reduction in infarct size (42%), hemisphere swelling (46%), hemorrhage score (53%), and improvement in Bederson score (70%) (p = 0.068-0.001). Early high mortality in the 2-h in the PBS control group precluded detailed analysis, but a trend was found in improvement in all factors, e.g., reduction in infarct volume (48%; p = 0.034) and a 56% improvement in Bederson score (p = 0.055) with PEG-HCCs.

CONCLUSION

This nano-antioxidant showed some improvement in several outcome measures in a severe model of tMCAO when administered at a clinically relevant time point. Long-term studies and additional models are required to assess potential for clinical use, especially for patients hyperglycemic at the time of their stroke, as these patients have the worst outcomes.

Embracing Biological and Methodological Variance in a New Approach to Pre-Clinical Stroke Testing

High-profile failures in stroke clinical trials have discouraged clinical translation of neuroprotectants. While there are several plausible explanations for these failures, we believe that the fundamental problem is the way clinical and pre-clinical studies are designed and analyzed for heterogeneous disorders such as stroke due to innate biological and methodological variability that current methods cannot capture. Recent efforts to address pre-clinical rigor and design, while important, are unable to account for variability present even in genetically homogenous rodents. Indeed, efforts to minimize variability may lessen the clinical relevance of pre-clinical models. We propose a new approach that recognizes the important role of baseline stroke severity and other factors in influencing outcome. Analogous to clinical trials, we propose reporting baseline factors that influence outcome and then adapting for the pre-clinical setting a method developed for clinical trial analysis where the influence of baseline factors is mathematically modeled and the variance quantified. A new therapy's effectiveness is then evaluated relative to the pooled outcome variance at its own baseline conditions. In this way, an objective threshold for robustness can be established that must be overcome to suggest its effectiveness when expanded to broader populations outside of the controlled environment of the PI's laboratory. The method is model neutral and subsumes sources of variance as reflected in baseline factors such as initial stroke severity. We propose that this new approach deserves consideration for providing an objective method to select agents worthy of the commitment of time and resources in translation to clinical trials.

Toward disease modification in multiple system atrophy: Pitfalls, bottlenecks, and possible remedies

Multiple system atrophy has recently attracted increased attention in basic and clinical research. Understanding of key pathophysiological mechanismshas improved; and, in the past decade, the first clinical trials aiming at diseasemodification were conducted. However, there is still no established interventional therapy available. In this review, the authors summarize recent advances, discuss bottlenecks and possible pitfalls of previous interventional studies, and suggest future research avenues.

An Outcome Model for Intravenous rt-PA in Acute Ischemic Stroke

Most early phase trials in stroke and brain trauma have failed in phase 3, including efforts to improve acute ischemic stroke outcomes beyond that achieved by intravenous recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) (IVT). With the exception of more recent stent retriever trials, most subsequent phase 3 trials failed. We previously showed that baseline imbalances, non-linear relationships of these factors to outcome, and unrepresentative control populations invalidate traditional statistical analysis in early trials of heterogeneous diseases such as stroke. We developed an alternative approach using a pooled outcome model derived from control arms of randomized clinical trial (RCTs). This model then permits comparing treatment trials to an expected outcome of a pooled population. Here, we hypothesized we could develop such a model for IVT and tested it against outcomes without IVT. We surveyed literature for all trials involving one arm with IVT reporting baseline National Institute Stroke Scale (NIHSS), age, and outcome. A non-linear fit was performed including multi-dimensional statistical intervals (±95 %) permitting visual comparison of outcomes at their own baselines. We compared models derived from non-IVT control arms. Models from 24 IVT RCTs representing 3195 subjects were successfully generated for functional outcome, modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 0-2 (r(2) = 0. 83, p < 0.001), and mortality (r(2) = 0.54; p = 0.001). We confirmed better outcomes compared to no IVT and mixed use IVT models across the range of baseline factors. It was possible to generate an expected outcome model for IVT from existing literature. We confirmed benefit compared to placebo. This model should be useful to compare to new agents without the need for statistical manipulation.