Assessment and comparison of the max-ICH score and ICH score by external validation

Guidelines for Neuroprognostication in Critically Ill Adults with Intracerebral Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

The objective of this document is to provide recommendations on the formal reliability of major clinical predictors often associated with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) neuroprognostication.

METHODS

A narrative systematic review was completed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation methodology and the Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Timing, Setting questions. Predictors, which included both individual clinical variables and prediction models, were selected based on clinical relevance and attention in the literature. Following construction of the evidence profile and summary of findings, recommendations were based on Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria. Good practice statements addressed essential principles of neuroprognostication that could not be framed in the Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Timing, Setting format.

RESULTS

Six candidate clinical variables and two clinical grading scales (the original ICH score and maximally treated ICH score) were selected for recommendation creation. A total of 347 articles out of 10,751 articles screened met our eligibility criteria. Consensus statements of good practice included deferring neuroprognostication-aside from the most clinically devastated patients-for at least the first 48-72 h of intensive care unit admission; understanding what outcomes would have been most valued by the patient; and counseling of patients and surrogates whose ultimate neurological recovery may occur over a variable period of time. Although many clinical variables and grading scales are associated with ICH poor outcome, no clinical variable alone or sole clinical grading scale was suggested by the panel as currently being reliable by itself for use in counseling patients with ICH and their surrogates, regarding functional outcome at 3 months and beyond or 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

These guidelines provide recommendations on the formal reliability of predictors of poor outcome in the context of counseling patients with ICH and surrogates and suggest broad principles of neuroprognostication. Clinicians formulating their judgments of prognosis for patients with ICH should avoid anchoring bias based solely on any one clinical variable or published clinical grading scale.

An artificial intelligence-based prognostic prediction model for hemorrhagic stroke

PURPOSE

The prognosis following a hemorrhagic stroke is usually extremely poor. Rating scales have been developed to predict the outcomes of patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). To date, however, the prognostic prediction models have not included the full range of relevant imaging features. We constructed a clinic-imaging fusion model based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) to predict the short-term prognosis of ICH patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a multi-center retrospective study, which included 1990 patients with ICH. Two CNN-based deep learning models were constructed to predict the neurofunctional outcomes at discharge; these were validated using a nested 5-fold cross-validation approach. The models' predictive efficiency was compared with the original ICH scale and the ICH grading scale. Poor neurological outcome was defined as a Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) score of 1-3.

RESULTS

The training and test sets included 1599 and 391 patients, respectively. For the test set, the clinic-imaging fusion model had the highest area under the curve (AUC = 0.903), followed by the imaging-based model (AUC = 0.886), the ICH scale (AUC = 0.777), and finally the ICH grading scale (AUC = 0.747).

CONCLUSION

The CNN prognostic prediction model based on neuroimaging features was more effective than the ICH scales in predicting the neurological outcomes of ICH patients at discharge. The CNN model's predictive efficiency slightly improved when clinical data were included.

Increased serum fibroblast growth factor 21 levels are associated with adverse clinical outcomes after intracerebral hemorrhage

Introduction

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is the most prevalent cause of death. We sought to explore whether serum Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) is of substantial benefit in predicting poor prognosis in ICH patient.

Methods

A prospective, multicenter cohort analysis of serum FGF21 levels in 418 ICH patients was carried out. At three months following ICH start, the primary endpoint was death or major disability, whereas the secondary endpoint was death. We investigated the association between serum FGF21 and clinical outcomes. We added FGF21 to the existing rating scale to assess whether it enhanced the prediction ability of the original model. Effectiveness was determined by calculating the C-statistic, net reclassification index (NRI), absolute integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) index.

Results

Among 418 enrolled patients, 217 (51.9%) of the all subjects had death or significant disability. Compared with patients in the lowest quartile group, those in the first quartile group had higher risk of the primary outcome (Odds ratio, 2.73 [95%CI,1.42-5.26, p < 0.05]) and second outcome (Hazard ratio, 4.28 [95%CI,1.61-11.42, p < 0.001]). The integration of FGF21 into many current ICH scales improved the discrimination and calibration quality for the integrated discrimination index's prediction of main and secondary findings (all p < 0.05).

Conclusion

Elevated serum FGF21 is associated with increased risks of adverse clinical outcomes at 3 months in ICH patients, suggesting FGF21 may be a valuable prognostic factor.

Prediction of poor outcome in stroke patients using radiomics analysis of intraparenchymal and intraventricular hemorrhage and clinical factors

PURPOSE

To build three prognostic models using radiomics analysis of the hemorrhagic lesions, clinical variables, and their combination, to predict the outcome of stroke patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Eighty-three sICH patients were included. Among them, 40 patients (48.2%) had poor prognosis with modified Rankin scale (mRS) of 5 and 6 at discharge, and the prognostic model was built to differentiate mRS ≤ 4 vs. 5 + 6. The region of interest (ROI) of intraparenchymal hemorrhage (IPH) and intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) were separately segmented. Features were extracted using PyRadiomics, and the support vector machine was applied to select features and build radiomics models based on IPH and IPH + IVH. The clinical models were built using multivariate logistic regression, and then the radiomics scores were combined with clinical variables to build the combined model.

RESULTS

When using IPH, the AUC for radiomics, clinical, and combined model was 0.78, 0.82, and 0.87, respectively. When using IPH + IVH, the AUC was increased to 0.80, 0.84, and 0.90, respectively. The combined model had a significantly improved AUC compared to the radiomics by DeLong test. A clinical prognostic model based on the ICH score of 0-1 only achieved AUC of 0.71.

CONCLUSIONS

The combined model using the radiomics score derived from IPH + IVH and the clinical factors could achieve a high accuracy in prediction of sICH patients with poor outcome, which may be used to assist in making the decision about the optimal care.

Reappraisal of Intracerebral Hemorrhages and Intracerebral Hemorrhage Grading Scale Score in Surgically and Medically Managed Cerebellar Intracerebral Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

As compared with supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhages (ICH), bleeds that occur within the cerebellum require special consideration given the nature of the posterior fossa.

OBJECTIVE

To validate ICH and ICH grading scale (ICH-GS) scores in patients with cerebellar hemorrhage and examine the outcomes of patients managed surgically as compared with those who underwent conservative treatment.

METHODS

This observational multicenter study included 475 patients with cerebellar hemorrhage from 9 different neurosurgical departments in Germany between 2005 and 2021. The prognostic accuracy of ICH and ICH-GS scores were calculated by the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curves. Analyzed outcomes were the in-hospital mortality, mortality at 6 months, in-hospital outcome, and outcome at 6 months.

RESULTS

Of 403 patients, 252 patients (62.5%) underwent surgical treatment and 151 patients (37.5%) conservative treatment. Both ICH and ICH-GS scores demonstrated good prognostic accuracy regarding both overall mortality and functional outcomes. In those patients presenting with severe cerebellar hemorrhages, ie, ICH score >3 and ICH-GS score >11, overall mortality was significantly lower in surgically treated patients. Mortality was significantly higher in those patients managed surgically who presented with ICH scores ≤3; in such patients, improved outcomes were noted when the hematoma was treated conservatively.

CONCLUSION

ICH and ICH scores are useful tools for prediction of survival and outcome in patients with cerebellar ICH. Surgical management may be beneficial for those who present with severe cerebellar ICH as reflected by ICH scores >3, while conservative management seems reasonable in patients with lower ICH scores.

ANAID-ICH nomogram for predicting unfavorable outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

Diffusion-weighted imaging lesions (DWILs) are associated with unfavorable outcome in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We proposed a novel predictive nomogram incorporating DWILs.

METHODS

A total of 738 patients with primary ICH in a tertiary hospital were prospectively enrolled as a training cohort. DWILs were defined as remote focal hyperintensities on DWI corresponding to low intensities on apparent diffusion coefficient images and remote from the focal hematoma. The outcome of interest was modified Rankin Scale scores of 4-6 at 90 days after onset. Multivariate logistic regression was used to construct a nomogram. Model performance was tested in the training cohort and externally validated with respect to discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness in another institute. Additionally, the nomogram was compared with the ICH score in terms of predictive ability.

RESULTS

Overall, 153 (20.73%) and 23 (15.54%) patients developed an unfavorable outcome in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The multivariate analysis revealed that age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, anemia, infratentorial location, presence of DWILs, and prior ICH were associated with unfavorable outcome. Our ANAID-ICH nomogram was constructed according to the aforementioned variables; the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.842 and 0.831 in the training and validation sets, respectively. With regard to the 90-day outcome, the nomogram showed a significantly higher predictive value than the ICH score in both cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The ANAID-ICH nomogram comprising age, NIHSS score, anemia, infratentorial location, presence of DWILs, and prior ICH may facilitate the identification of patients at higher risk for an unfavorable outcome.

End-of-Life Care Decision-Making in Stroke

Stroke is one of the leading causes of death and long-term disability in the United States. Though advances in interventions have improved patient survival after stroke, prognostication of long-term functional outcomes remains challenging, thereby complicating discussions of treatment goals. Stroke patients who require intensive care unit care often do not have the capacity themselves to participate in decision making processes, a fact that further complicates potential end-of-life care discussions after the immediate post-stroke period. Establishing clear, consistent communication with surrogates through shared decision-making represents best practice, as these surrogates face decisions regarding artificial nutrition, tracheostomy, code status changes, and withdrawal or withholding of life-sustaining therapies. Throughout decision-making, clinicians must be aware of a myriad of factors affecting both provider recommendations and surrogate concerns, such as cognitive biases. While decision aids have the potential to better frame these conversations within intensive care units, aids specific to goals-of-care decisions for stroke patients are currently lacking. This mini review highlights the difficulties in decision-making for critically ill ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage patients, beginning with limitations in current validated clinical scales and clinician subjectivity in prognostication. We outline processes for identifying patient preferences when possible and make recommendations for collaborating closely with surrogate decision-makers on end-of-life care decisions.

Methodological quality of multivariate prognostic models for intracranial haemorrhages in intensive care units: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Patients with severe spontaneous intracranial haemorrhages, managed in intensive care units, face ethical issues regarding the difficulty of anticipating their recovery. Prognostic tools help clinicians in counselling patients and relatives and guide therapeutic decisions. We aimed to methodologically assess prognostic tools for functional outcomes in severe spontaneous intracranial haemorrhages.

DATA SOURCES

Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses recommendations, we conducted a systematic review querying Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane in January 2020.

STUDY SELECTION

We included development or validation of multivariate prognostic models for severe intracerebral or subarachnoid haemorrhage.

DATA EXTRACTION

We evaluated the articles following the CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies and Transparent Reporting of multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis statements to assess the tools' methodological reporting.

RESULTS

Of the 6149 references retrieved, we identified 85 articles eligible. We discarded 43 articles due to the absence of prognostic performance or predictor selection. Among the 42 articles included, 22 did not validate models, 6 developed and validated models and 14 only externally validated models. When adding 11 articles comparing developed models to existing ones, 25 articles externally validated models. We identified methodological pitfalls, notably the lack of adequate validations or insufficient performance levels. We finally retained three scores predicting mortality and unfavourable outcomes: the IntraCerebral Haemorrhages (ICH) score and the max-ICH score for intracerebral haemorrhages, the SubArachnoid Haemorrhage International Trialists score for subarachnoid haemorrhages.

CONCLUSIONS

Although prognostic studies on intracranial haemorrhages abound in the literature, they lack methodological robustness or show incomplete reporting. Rather than developing new scores, future authors should focus on externally validating and updating existing scores with large and recent cohorts.

SMASH-U aetiological classification: A predictor of long-term functional outcome after intracerebral haemorrhage

BACKGROUND

SMASH-U is a systematic aetiological classification system for intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) proven to be a predictor of post-ICH haematoma expansion and mortality. However, its role in predicting functional outcome remains elusive. Therefore, we aimed to investigate whether SMASH-U is associated with long-term functional outcome after ICH and improves the accuracy of prediction when added to max-ICH score.

METHODS

Consecutive acute ICH patients from 2012 to 2018 from the neurology department of Tongji Hospital were enrolled. ICH aetiology was classified according to the SMASH-U system. The association of SMASH-U with 12-month functional outcome after ICH and the predictive value were evaluated.

RESULTS

Of 1938 ICH patients, the aetiology of 1295 (66.8%) patients were classified as hypertension, followed by amyloid angiopathy (n = 250, 12.9%), undetermined (n = 159, 8.2%), structural lesions (n = 149, 7.7%), systemic disease (n = 74, 3.8%) and medication (n = 11, 0.6%). The baseline characteristics were different among the six aetiologies. In multivariate analysis, SMASH-U was proven to be a predictor of 12-month unfavourable functional outcome. When adding the SMASH-U system, the predictive performance of max-ICH score was improved (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from 0.802 to 0.812, p = 0.010) and the predictive accuracy was enhanced (integrated discrimination improvement [IDI]: 1.60%, p < 0.001; continuous net reclassification improvement [NRI]: 28.16%, p < 0.001; categorical NRI: 3.34%, p = 0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

SMASH-U predicted long-term unfavourable functional outcomes after acute ICH and improved the accuracy of prediction when added to max-ICH score. Integrating the aetiology to a score model to predict the post-ICH outcome may be meaningful and worthy of further exploration.

Factors Disrupting Melatonin Secretion Rhythms During Critical Illness

OBJECTIVES

The circadian system modulates many important physiologic processes, synchronizing tissue-specific functions throughout the body. We sought to characterize acute alterations of circadian rhythms in critically ill patients and to evaluate associations between brain dysfunction, systemic multiple organ dysfunction, environmental stimuli that entrain the circadian rhythm (zeitgebers), rest-activity rhythms, and the central circadian rhythm-controlled melatonin secretion profile.

DESIGN

Prospective study observing a cohort for 24-48 hours beginning within the first day of ICU admission.

SETTING

Multiple specialized ICUs within an academic medical center.

PATIENTS

Patients presenting from the community with acute onset of either intracerebral hemorrhage as a representative neurologic critical illness or sepsis as a representative systemic critical illness. Healthy control patients were studied in using modified constant routine in a clinical research unit.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Light, feeding, activity, medications, and other treatment exposures were evaluated along with validated measures of encephalopathy (Glasgow Coma Scale), multiple organ system function (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score), and circadian rhythms (profiles of serum melatonin and its urinary metabolite 6-sulphatoxymelatonin). We studied 112 critically ill patients, including 53 with sepsis and 59 with intracerebral hemorrhage. Environmental exposures were abnormal, including light (dim), nutritional intake (reduced or absent and mistimed), and arousal stimuli (increased and mistimed). Melatonin amplitude and acrophase timing were generally preserved in awake patients but dampened and delayed with increasing encephalopathy severity. Melatonin hypersecretion was observed in patients exposed to catecholamine vasopressor infusions, but unaffected by sedatives. Change in vasopressor exposure was the only factor associated with changes in melatonin rhythms between days 1 and 2.

CONCLUSIONS

Encephalopathy severity and adrenergic agonist medication exposure were the primary factors contributing to abnormal melatonin rhythms. Improvements in encephalopathy and medical stabilization did not rapidly normalize rhythms. Urinary 6-sulphatoxymelatonin is not a reliable measure of the central circadian rhythm in critically ill patients.

New Prediction Models of Functional Outcome in Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage: The dICH Score and uICH Score

Objectives: The original intracerebral hemorrhage (oICH) score is the severity score most commonly used in clinical intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) research but may be influenced by hematoma expansion or intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) growth in acute ICH. Here, we aimed to develop new clinical scores to improve the prediction of functional outcomes in patients with ICH.

Methods: Patients admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University with primary ICH were prospectively enrolled in this study. Hematoma volume was measured using a semiautomated, computer-assisted technique. The dynamic ICH (dICH) score was developed by incorporating hematoma expansion and IVH growth into the oICH score. The ultra-early ICH (uICH) score was developed by adding the independent non-contrast CT markers to the oICH score. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to compare performance among the oICH score, dICH score, and uICH score.

Results: There were 310 patients in this study which included 72 patients (23.2%) with hematoma expansion and 58 patients (18.7%) with IVH growth. Of 31 patients with two or more non-contrast computed tomography markers, 61.3% died, and 96.8% had poor outcomes at 90 days. After adjustment for potential confounding variables, we found that age, baseline Glasgow Coma Scale score, presence of IVH on initial CT, baseline ICH volume, infratentorial hemorrhage, hematoma expansion, IVH growth, blend sign, black hole sign, and island sign could independently predict poor outcomes in multivariate analysis. In comparison with the oICH score, the dICH score and uICH score exhibited better performance in the prediction of poor functional outcomes.

Conclusions: The dICH score and uICH score were useful clinical assessment tools that could be used for risk stratification concerning functional outcomes and provide guidance in clinical decision-making in acute ICH.

The Feasibility and Validity of Objective and Patient-Reported Measurements of Cognition During Early Critical Illness Recovery

BACKGROUND

Cognitive outcomes are an important determinant of quality of life after critical illness, but methods to assess early cognitive impairment and cognition recovery are not established. The objective of this study was to assess the feasibility and validity of objective and patient-reported cognition assessments for generalized use during early recovery from critical illness.

METHODS

Patients presented from the community with acute onset of either intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) or sepsis as representative neurologic and systemic critical illnesses. Early cognitive assessments comprised the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), three NIH Toolbox cognition measures (Flanker Inhibitory Control and Attention Test, List Sorting Working Memory Test and Pattern Comparison Processing Speed Test) and two Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) cognition measures (Cognition-General Concerns and Cognition-Abilities) performed seven days after intensive care unit discharge or at hospital discharge, whichever occurred first.

RESULTS

We enrolled 91 patients (53 with sepsis, 38 with ICH), and after attrition principally due to deaths, cognitive assessments were attempted in 73 cases. Median [interquartile range] Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores for patients with sepsis was 7 [3, 11]. ICH cases included 13 lobar, 21 deep and 4 infratentorial hemorrhages with a median [IQR] ICH Score 2 [1, 2]. Patient-reported outcomes were successfully obtained in 42 (58% overall, 79% of sepsis and 34% of ICH) patients but scores were anomalously favorable (median 97th percentile compared to the general adult population). Analysis of the PROMIS item bank by four blinded, board-certified academic neurointensivists revealed a strong correlation between higher severity of reported symptoms and greater situational relevance of the items (ρ = 0.72, p = 0.002 correlation with expert item assessment), indicating poor construct validity in this population. NIH Toolbox tests were obtainable in only 9 (12%) patients, all of whom were unimpaired by GCS (score 15) and completed PROMIS assessments. Median scores were 5th percentile (interquartile range [2nd, 9th] percentile) and uncorrelated with self-reported symptoms. Shorter intensive care unit length of stay was associated with successful testing in both patients with ICH and sepsis, along with lower ICH Score in patients with ICH and absence of premorbid dementia in patients with sepsis (all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Methods of objective and patient-reported cognitive testing that have been validated for use in patients with chronic medical and neurologic illness were infeasible or yielded invalid results among a general sample of patients in this study who were in early recovery from neurologic and systemic critical illness. Longer critical illness duration and worse neurocognitive impairments, whether chronic or acute, reduced testing feasibility.

Early Seizures Are Predictive of Worse Health-Related Quality of Life at Follow-Up After Intracerebral Hemorrhage

OBJECTIVES

Early seizures are a common complication of intracerebral hemorrhage, occurring in ~10% of patients. However, the independent effect of early seizures on patient outcomes, particularly health-related quality of life, is unclear. Without a potential benefit to patient outcomes, the widespread use (~40%) of prophylactic seizure medications has no reasonable chance of improving patient outcomes. We tested the hypothesis that health-related quality of life at follow-up is different between patients with and without early seizures (and secondarily, with nonconvulsive status epilepticus) after intracerebral hemorrhage.

DESIGN

Patients with intracerebral hemorrhage were enrolled in an observational cohort study that prospectively collected clinical data and health-related quality of life at follow-up.

SETTING

Academic medical center.

PATIENTS

One-hundred thirty-three patients whose health-related quality of life was assessed 3 months after intracerebral hemorrhage onset.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Health-related quality of life was obtained at 3 months after intracerebral hemorrhage onset. T Scores of health-related quality of life were modeled with multivariable linear models accounting for severity with the intracerebral hemorrhage Score and hematoma location. Health-related quality of life was measured with National Institutes of Health Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System/Neuroquality of life, expressed in T Scores (U.S. normal 50 ± 10). The modified Rankin Scale (a global measure) was a secondary outcome. There were 12 patients (9%) with early seizures. T Scores of health-related quality of life at follow-up were lower (worse) in patients with early seizure compared with patients without an early seizure (44 [32.75-51.85] vs 30.25 [18.9-39.15]; p = 0.04); results for other domains of health-related quality of life were similar. The association persisted in multivariable models. There was no association between early seizures and prophylactic seizure medications (p = 0.4). Results for patients with nonconvulsive status epilepticus were similar. There was no association between early seizures and the modified Rankin Scale at 3 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Early seizures and nonconvulsive status epilepticus were associated with lower health-related quality of life at follow-up in survivors of intracerebral hemorrhage.

Identifying Modifiable Predictors of Patient Outcomes After Intracerebral Hemorrhage with Machine Learning

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

Demonstrating a benefit of acute treatment to patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) requires identifying which patients have a potentially modifiable outcome, where treatment could favorably shift a patient's expected outcome. A decision rule for which patients have a modifiable outcome could improve the targeting of treatments. We sought to determine which patients with ICH have a modifiable outcome.

METHODS

Patients with ICH were prospectively identified at two institutions. Data on hematoma volumes, medication histories, and other variables of interest were collected. ICH outcomes were evaluated using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), assessed at 14 days and 3 months after ICH, with "good outcome" defined as 0-3 (independence or better) and "poor outcome" defined as 4-6 (dependence or worse). Supervised machine learning models identified the best predictors of good versus poor outcomes at Institution 1. Models were validated using repeated fivefold cross-validation as well as testing on the entirely independent sample at Institution 2. Model fit was assessed with area under the ROC curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Model performance at Institution 1 was strong for both 14-day (AUC of 0.79 [0.77, 0.81] for decision tree, 0.85 [0.84, 0.87] for random forest) and 3 month (AUC of 0.75 [0.73, 0.77] for decision tree, 0.82 [0.80, 0.84] for random forest) outcomes. Independent predictors of functional outcome selected by the algorithms as important included hematoma volume at hospital admission, hematoma expansion, intraventricular hemorrhage, overall ICH Score, and Glasgow Coma Scale. Hematoma expansion was the only potentially modifiable independent predictor of outcome and was compatible with "good" or "poor" outcome in a subset of patients with low hematoma volumes, good Glasgow Coma scale and premorbid modified Rankin Scale scores. Models trained on harmonized data also predicted patient outcomes well at Institution 2 using decision tree (AUC 0.69 [0.63, 0.75]) and random forests (AUC 0.78 [0.72, 0.84]).

CONCLUSIONS

Patient outcomes are predictable to a high level in patients with ICH, and hematoma expansion is the sole-modifiable predictor of these outcomes across two outcome types and modeling approaches. According to decision tree analyses predicting outcome at 3 months, patients with a high Glasgow Coma Scale score, less than 44.5 mL hematoma volume at admission, and relatively low premorbid modified Rankin Score in particular have a modifiable outcome and appear to be candidates for future interventions to improve outcomes after ICH.

Is using intracerebral hemorrhage scoring systems valid for mortality prediction in surgically treated patients?

While intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) scoring systems provide mortality and morbidity prediction, the actual mortality rates seem to be lower than those predicted by scoring systems in our clinical impression. To assess the validity of the ICH score and the Surgical Swedish ICH (SwICH) score, we retrospectively reviewed surgically treated ICH patients between 2012 and 2019. Uni- and multivariate analyses were performed to identify variables in predicting 30-day mortality. We identified 203 patients (mean ICH score 2.7; mean SwICH score 2.0). The actual 30-day mortality was 7%, which was significantly lower than those predicted by the ICH and the SwICH scores (55% and 16%, respectively; p < 0.001). Both scores were strongly correlated with the modified Rankin scale (mRS) at discharge (correlation coefficient 0.97 and 0.98; critical value 0.81). The only significant prognostic factors for the 30-day mortality by multivariate analysis were anisocoria (p = 0.03) and preoperative Glasgow Coma Scale (p = 0.03). These two factors also predicted mRS at discharge (p < 0.001). After discharge, 15% of patients improved regarding mRS and 29% of wheelchair-bound patients gained the ability to ambulate. No significant relationship existed between the degree of recovery after discharge and preoperative ICH score (p = 0.25). The ICH and SwICH scores were more valid in predicting morbidity, rather than mortality after surgical intervention for ICH. Anisocoria and Glasgow Coma Scale < 7 were the only two factors that predicted 30-day mortality and morbidity at discharge.

Temporal Evolution and Outcomes of Non-Traumatic Intracerebral Hemorrhage in Hospitalized Patients

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the radiographic features, temporal evolution, and outcome of patients who develop non-traumatic intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) while hospitalized for other causes.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed consecutive Emergency Department ICH (ED-ICH) and in-hospital ICH (IH-ICH) over an 8-year period. Variables including demographics, medical history, lab values, lead time to diagnosis, defined as time from last known well to first CT scan, and clinical characteristics, follow-up CT scan, as well as the frequency of withdrawal of life support were compared in the two groups. Mortality in correlation with ICH score was assessed.

RESULTS

Sixty-One IH-ICH and 216 ED-ICH patients were compared. History of cardiac disease, cancer, coagulopathy and higher SOFA score at time of diagnosis were significantly higher in the IH-ICH group (all P< 0.01). Time from symptom onset to diagnosis was shorter in the IH-ICH group (median 95 versus 117 minutes, P=0.011). Thirty six percent of IH-ICH fell into a worse ICH category when recalculated 6 hours from initial scan time, compared to only 10% of the ED-ICH. ICH score was well calibrated in ED-ICH when assessed both at diagnosis and 6 hours later, but underestimated actual mortality in the IH-ICH, particularly at ICH scores 0 to 3. End of life measures were pursued in 69% of IH-ICH group compared to 19% in the ED-ICH group.

CONCLUSIONS

IH-ICH, is associated with higher overall mortality rates and often times heralds withdrawal of life sustaining therapies in patients. In addition, IH-ICH in comparison to ED-ICH, significantly changes in severity metrics within the first 6 hours. ICH score is not accurate and not calibrated to reflect reasonable stratification of mortality in IH-ICH. Prospective validation and investigation of variables accounting for higher IH-ICH mortality are needed.

Multicenter Validation of the max-ICH Score in Intracerebral Hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

Outcome prognostication unbiased by early care limitations (ECL) is essential for guiding treatment in patients presenting with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). The aim of this study was to determine whether the max-ICH (maximally treated ICH) Score provides improved and clinically useful prognostic estimation of functional long-term outcomes after ICH.

METHODS

This multicenter validation study compared the prognostication of the max-ICH Score versus the ICH Score regarding diagnostic accuracy (discrimination and calibration) and clinical utility using decision curve analysis. We performed a joint investigation of individual participant data of consecutive spontaneous ICH patients (n = 4,677) from 2 retrospective German-wide studies (RETRACE I + II; anticoagulation-associated ICH only) conducted at 22 participating centers, one German prospective single-center study (UKER-ICH; nonanticoagulation-associated ICH only), and 1 US-based prospective longitudinal single-center study (MGH; both anticoagulation- and nonanticoagulation-associated ICH), treated between January 2006 and December 2015.

RESULTS

Of 4,677 included ICH patients, 1,017 (21.7%) were affected by ECL (German cohort: 15.6% [440 of 2,377]; MGH: 31.0% [577 of 1,283]). Validation of long-term functional outcome prognostication by the max-ICH Score provided good and superior discrimination in patients without ECL compared with the ICH Score (area under the receiver operating curve [AUROC], German cohort: 0.81 [0.78-0.83] vs 0.74 [0.72-0.77], p < 0.01; MGH: 0.85 [0.81-0.89] vs 0.78 [0.74-0.82], p < 0.01), and for the entire cohort (AUROC, German cohort: 0.84 [0.82-0.86] vs 0.80 [0.77-0.82], p < 0.01; MGH: 0.83 [0.81-0.85] vs 0.77 [0.75-0.79], p < 0.01). Both scores showed no evidence of poor calibration. The clinical utility investigated by decision curve analysis showed, at high threshold probabilities (0.8, aiming to avoid false-positive poor outcome attribution), that the max-ICH Score provided a clinical net benefit compared with the ICH Score (14.1 vs 2.1 net predicted poor outcomes per 100 patients).

INTERPRETATION

The max-ICH Score provides valid and improved prognostication of functional outcome after ICH. The associated clinical net benefit in minimizing false poor outcome attribution might potentially prevent unwarranted care limitations in patients with ICH. ANN NEUROL 2021;89:474-484.

Use of Telemedicine to Improve Interfacility Communication and Aid in Triage of Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Pilot Study

INTRODUCTION

Over the past several years there has been a dramatic increase in the implementation of telemedicine technology to aid in the delivery of care across community, inpatient, and emergency settings. This technology has proved valuable for acute life-threatening clinical scenarios. We aimed to pilot a novel neurosurgical telemedicine program within an academic tertiary care center to assist in consultation of patients with high-grade intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) (ICH score 4, 5).

METHODS

A quality improvement conceptual framework was developed. Subsequently, a process map and improvement interventions were created. Patients in community hospitals with high-grade ICH or pre-existing Do Not Resuscitate/Do Not Intubate orders with an admitting diagnosis of ICH triggered a TeleNeurosurgery consultation. Patients who met the inclusion criteria, with consent of their decision makers, were enrolled in the study. Post-encounter physician surveys were used to evaluate overall satisfaction with the implementation.

RESULTS

This 18-month pilot study proved feasible, with an enrollment of 63.6% (n = 14 of 22) of patients who met criteria. All patients who were enrolled in the study and participated in TeleNeurosurgery consultation remained at the presenting facility for end-of-life care and palliative medicine consultation. Both community emergency physicians and subspecialists who performed the consultations reported satisfaction with the TeleNeurosurgery consultation process and a perceived benefit both to patients, families, and emergency medicine physicians.

CONCLUSIONS

The program proved feasible and several areas in need of improvement within the health system were identified. Emergency physicians reported comfort with the process, program effectiveness, and improved access to care by implementation of this program.

Circulating TIMP-1 is associated with hematoma volume in patients with spontaneous intracranial hemorrhage

Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are proteolytic zinc-endopeptidases regulated by tissue Inhibitors of matrix metalloproteinases (TIMPs). We evaluated the potential of MMPs and TIMPs as clinical tools for Intracranial Haemorrhage (ICH). Spontaneous non-traumatic ICH patients were recruited from two hospitals: Complejo Hospitalario de Navarra (CHN = 29) and Vall d´Hebron (VdH = 76). Plasmatic levels of MMP-1, -2, -7, -9, -10 and TIMP-1 and their relationship with clinical, radiological and functional variables were evaluated. We further studied the effect of TIMP-1 (0.05-0.2 mg/Kg) in an experimental tail-bleeding model. In CHN, TIMP-1 was associated with admission-hematoma volume and MMP-7 was elevated in patients with deep when compared to lobar hematoma. In VdH, admission-hematoma volume was associated with TIMP-1 and MMP-7. When data from both hospitals were combined, we observed that an increase in 1 ng/ml in TIMP-1 was associated with an increase of 0.14 ml in haemorrhage (combined β = 0.14, 95% CI = 0.08-0.21). Likewise, mice receiving TIMP-1 (0.2 mg/Kg) showed a shorter bleeding time (p < 0.01). Therefore, the association of TIMP-1 with hematoma volume in two independent ICH cohorts suggests its potential as ICH biomarker. Moreover, increased TIMP-1 might not be sufficient to counterbalance MMPs upregulation indicating that TIMP-1 administration might be a beneficial strategy for ICH.

Factors Disrupting Melatonin Secretion Rhythms During Critical Illness

OBJECTIVES

The circadian system modulates many important physiologic processes, synchronizing tissue-specific functions throughout the body. We sought to characterize acute alterations of circadian rhythms in critically ill patients and to evaluate associations between brain dysfunction, systemic multiple organ dysfunction, environmental stimuli that entrain the circadian rhythm (zeitgebers), rest-activity rhythms, and the central circadian rhythm-controlled melatonin secretion profile.

DESIGN

Prospective study observing a cohort for 24-48 hours beginning within the first day of ICU admission.

SETTING

Multiple specialized ICUs within an academic medical center.

PATIENTS

Patients presenting from the community with acute onset of either intracerebral hemorrhage as a representative neurologic critical illness or sepsis as a representative systemic critical illness. Healthy control patients were studied in using modified constant routine in a clinical research unit.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Light, feeding, activity, medications, and other treatment exposures were evaluated along with validated measures of encephalopathy (Glasgow Coma Scale), multiple organ system function (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score), and circadian rhythms (profiles of serum melatonin and its urinary metabolite 6-sulphatoxymelatonin). We studied 112 critically ill patients, including 53 with sepsis and 59 with intracerebral hemorrhage. Environmental exposures were abnormal, including light (dim), nutritional intake (reduced or absent and mistimed), and arousal stimuli (increased and mistimed). Melatonin amplitude and acrophase timing were generally preserved in awake patients but dampened and delayed with increasing encephalopathy severity. Melatonin hypersecretion was observed in patients exposed to catecholamine vasopressor infusions, but unaffected by sedatives. Change in vasopressor exposure was the only factor associated with changes in melatonin rhythms between days 1 and 2.

CONCLUSIONS

Encephalopathy severity and adrenergic agonist medication exposure were the primary factors contributing to abnormal melatonin rhythms. Improvements in encephalopathy and medical stabilization did not rapidly normalize rhythms. Urinary 6-sulphatoxymelatonin is not a reliable measure of the central circadian rhythm in critically ill patients.

Comparison of Conventional Intensive Care Scoring Systems and Prognostic Scores Specific for Intracerebral Hemorrhage in Predicting One-Year Mortality

Background

Specific prognostic models for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) have short and simple features, whereas intensive care unit (ICU) severity scales include more complicated parameters. Even though newly developed ICU severity scales have disease-specific properties, they still lack radiologic parameters, which is crucial for ICH.

Aims

To compare the performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) III, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV, Logistic Organ Dysfunction Score (LODS), ICH, max-ICH, ICH functional outcome score (ICH-FOS), and Essen-ICH for prediction of in-hospital and one-year mortality of patients with ICH.

Methods

A single-center analysis of 137 patients with ICH was conducted over 5 years. The performance of scoring systems was evaluated with receiver operating characteristic analysis. The independent predictors of one-year mortality were investigated with a multivariate logistic regression analysis. The SAPS-III score was calculated both in the emergency department (ED) and ICU.

Results

Among the independent variables, the need for mechanical ventilation, hematoma volume, the presence of intraventricular hemorrhage, and hematoma originating from both lobar and nonlobar regions were found as the strongest predictor of one-year mortality. For in-hospital mortality, the discriminative power of SAPS-II, APACHE-IV, and LODS was excellent, and for SAPS-III-ICU and SAPS-III-ED, it was good. For one-year mortality, the discriminative power of SAPS-II, APACHE-IV, LODS, and SAPS-III-ICU was good, and for SAPS-III-ED, Essen-ICH, ICH, max-ICH, and ICH-FOS, it was fair.

Conclusions

Although all three ICH-specific prognostic scales performed satisfactory results for predicting one-year mortality, the common intensive care severity scoring showed better performance. SAPS-III scores may be recommended for use in EDs after proper customization.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s12028-020-00987-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Correct Outcome Prognostication via Sonographic Volumetry in Supratentorial Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Introduction: The intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH)-score is used for estimation of patients' prognosis. The hemorrhage volume calculated from computed tomography (CT) contributes as one main factor. Several studies have proven that dimensions of an ICH may be displayed sufficiently by transcranial sonography (TCS). Yet, the adequacy of ICH-volumetry via TCS in calculating the ICH-score and its use as prognostic tool has not been studied.

Methods: Forty consecutive patients with supratentorial ICH diagnosed via CT were included in this prospective observational pilot study. 45 examination-series via CT and TCS were done in order to perform an ICH-volumetry and calculate the ICH-score. Volume was calculated using the ABC/2 estimation. Results of both imaging techniques were compared regarding quantification of ICH- volume and correct prognostication. A modified Rankin Scale (mRS)-score of 0–3 points was valued as good outcome.

Results: The imaging techniques did not show a difference in volumetry (p = 0.794) and TCS derived hemorrhage volume correlated significantly with ICH-volume measured on CT-scans. Calculated ICH-scores also did not differ (p = 0.323). Patients with an ICH-score larger than 2 points were predicted to experience a poor outcome at discharge with mRS 4–6 points, and the prognostication of the outcome was correct. Patients with a good outcome showed a smaller ICH-volume (11.2 ± 9.1ml) than patients with a poor outcome (38.2 ± 41.2 ml; p = 0.002).

Conclusion: Volumetry in supratentorial ICH via TCS is feasible and the prognostication with the ICH-score based on its results is comparable to CT-imaging and sufficient.

Early increased neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio is associated with poor 3-month outcomes in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage

The aim of this study was to evaluate the association of dynamic neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) with 3-month functional outcomes in patients with sICH. We retrospectively identified 213 consecutive patients with sICH hospitalized in The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2017 to May 2018. Patients were divided into functional independence (FI) or unfavorable prognosis (UP) groups based on 3-month outcomes. Admission leukocyte counts within 24 hours of symptom onset were obtained, and the recorded fraction, of which the numerator is neutrophil and the denominator is lymphocyte, as NLR0. Determined NLR1, NLR3, NLR7, and NLR14 were recorded on day 1 (n = 77), day 3 (n = 126), day 7 (n = 123), and day 14 (n = 105), respectively. The relationships between dynamic NLR or leukocyte counts and clinical features were evaluated using Spearman’s or Kendall’s correlation analysis. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify the risk factors for unfavorable 3-month prognosis. The patients’ dynamic NLR was positively associated with the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, ICH score, and hematoma volume at admission, while inversely correlated to the onset GCS score and FI at 3-month follow-up. Furthermore, higher NLR or lower absolute lymphocyte count obtained at admission was independently risk factor for UP at 3 months (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.003, 1.12; OR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.18, 0.94, respectively). In conclusion, higher NLR and lower lymphocyte counts at early stages were predictive of 3-month unfavorable outcomes in sICH patients.