INTEGRATIVE NETWORK LEARNING FOR MULTI-MODALITY BIOMARKER DATA

Accounting for network noise in graph-guided Bayesian modeling of structured high-dimensional data

There is a growing body of literature on knowledge-guided statistical learning methods for analysis of structured high-dimensional data (such as genomic and transcriptomic data) that can incorporate knowledge of underlying networks derived from functional genomics and functional proteomics. These methods have been shown to improve variable selection and prediction accuracy and yield more interpretable results. However, these methods typically use graphs extracted from existing databases or rely on subject matter expertise, which are known to be incomplete and may contain false edges. To address this gap, we propose a graph-guided Bayesian modeling framework to account for network noise in regression models involving structured high-dimensional predictors. Specifically, we use 2 sources of network information, including the noisy graph extracted from existing databases and the estimated graph from observed predictors in the dataset at hand, to inform the model for the true underlying network via a latent scale modeling framework. This model is coupled with the Bayesian regression model with structured high-dimensional predictors involving an adaptive structured shrinkage prior. We develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior sampling. We demonstrate the advantages of our method over existing methods in simulations, and through analyses of a genomics dataset and another proteomics dataset for Alzheimer's disease.

Dynamic ensemble prediction of cognitive performance in spaceflight

During spaceflight, astronauts face a unique set of stressors, including microgravity, isolation, and confinement, as well as environmental and operational hazards. These factors can negatively impact sleep, alertness, and neurobehavioral performance, all of which are critical to mission success. In this paper, we predict neurobehavioral performance over the course of a 6-month mission aboard the International Space Station (ISS), using ISS environmental data as well as self-reported and cognitive data collected longitudinally from 24 astronauts. Neurobehavioral performance was repeatedly assessed via a 3-min Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT-B) that is highly sensitive to the effects of sleep deprivation. To relate PVT-B performance to time-varying and discordantly-measured environmental, operational, and psychological covariates, we propose an ensemble prediction model comprising of linear mixed effects, random forest, and functional concurrent models. An extensive cross-validation procedure reveals that this ensemble outperforms any one of its components alone. We also identify the most important predictors of PVT-B performance, which include an individual's previous PVT-B performance, reported fatigue and stress, and temperature and radiation dose. This method is broadly applicable to settings where the main goal is accurate, individualized prediction of human behavior involving a mixture of person-level traits and irregularly measured time series.