Elevated CEA levels and low distance of the tumor from the anal verge are predictors of incomplete response to chemoradiation in patients with rectal cancer

Optimal timing of surgery after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer: A retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

Determining the optimal interval between neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) and surgery in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) remains crucial for improving treatment outcomes. Extending the interval may increase rates of pathological complete response (pCR), potentially enhancing survival and reducing recurrence.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 226 patients with LARC who underwent NCRT followed by surgery. ROC analysis was used to establish the optimal interval between NCRT and surgery for achieving pCR, and multivariate logistic regression assessed independent predictors of pCR. Spline regression further analyzed the relationship between surgery timing and the probability of pCR.

RESULTS

ROC analysis identified 10.5 weeks as the optimal interval, showing increased pCR rates within this period. Multivariate analysis confirmed that surgery interval (OR = 2.603, P = 0.045) significantly predicted pCR. Both ROC and spline regression indicated that a 9-11-week interval maximizes pCR probability. Notably, the comparison of postoperative complications between groups with surgery intervals ≤10 weeks and >10 weeks showed no statistically significant differences (P = 0.518).

CONCLUSION

An interval of 9-11 weeks between NCRT and surgery optimizes pCR rates without increasing postoperative risks. This timeframe may serve as a favorable window for surgical intervention to enhance outcomes in rectal cancer patients.

Prognostic Value of Pretreatment Carcinoembryonic Antigen (CEA) in Rectal Cancer Treated with Preoperative Short-Course Radiotherapy with Delayed Surgery or Long-Course Radiotherapy

Purpose

To investigate the prognostic value of the pretreatment serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level in patients with rectal cancer treated by preoperative short-course radiotherapy (SCRT) followed by chemotherapy and delayed surgery.

Patients and Methods

Two hundred and sixty-six consecutive patients with locally advanced rectal adenocarcinoma without distant metastasis receiving preoperative radiotherapy were enrolled. Group 1 patients (n=144) received long-course radiotherapy (LCRT) with 50.4 Gy in 28 fractions using photon radiotherapy (XRT). Group 2 patients (n=122) received SCRT with 25 Gy in 5 fractions using XRT or proton beam therapy (PBT) followed by chemotherapy and delayed surgery. Pathological complete response (pCR), near pathological complete response (npCR), locoregional recurrence (LRR), distant metastasis (DM), disease-specific survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS) rates were estimated and compared to scrutinize the prognostic significance of factors including CEA level.

Results

In group 1, higher CEA level (≥ 7 ng/mL) was a significant negative prognostic factor of pCR (p = 0.003, OR: 0.133), OS (p = 0.011, HR: 2.999), DM (p = 0.008, HR: 2.569), LRR (p = 0.044, HR: 3.160), and DSS (p = 0.015, HR: 3.273). In group 2, higher CEA level (≥ 7 ng/mL) was a significant negative prognostic factor of pCR (p = 0.002, OR: 0.038), OS (p < 0.001, HR: 44.658), DM (p < 0.001, HR: 8.926), LRR (p = 0.028, HR: 8.570), and DSS (p = 0.001, HR: 43.918). The npCR rates for clinical T4 patients were 6.5% and 22.0% (p = 0.032), in group 1 and group 2, respectively.

Conclusion

This study elucidates the prognostic merit of the pretreatment serum CEA level in patients with rectal cancer treated by either preoperative LCRT or SCRT followed by chemotherapy and delayed surgery.

A dynamic nomogram for predicting pathologic complete response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer

AIM

To explore the clinical factors associated with pathologic complete response (pCR) for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and develop a web-based dynamic nomogram.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of patients with examination confirmed LARC from 2011 to 2022. Patients from the Union Hospital of Fujian Medical University were included as the training cohort (n = 1579) and Zhangzhou Hospital of Fujian Medical University as the external validation cohort (n = 246).

RESULTS

In the training cohort, after nCRT, 350 (22.2%) patients achieved pCR. More stomas were avoided in pCR patients (73.9% vs. 69.7%, p = 0.043). After a median follow-up time of 47.7 months (IQR 2-145) shown OS (5-year: 93.7% vs. 81.0%, HR = 0.310, 95%CI: 0.189-0.510, p < 0.001) and DFS (5-year: 91.2% vs. 75.0%, HR = 0.204, 95%CI: 0.216-0.484, p < 0.001) were significantly better among patients with pCR than non-pCR. Multivariable Logistic analysis shown pCR was significantly associated with Pre-CRT CEA (HR = 0.944, 95%CI: 0.921-0.968; p < 0.001), histopathology (HR = 4.608, 95%CI: 2.625-8.089; p < 0.001), Pre-CRT T stage (HR = 0.793, 95%CI: 0.634-0.993; p = 0.043), Pre-CRT N stage (HR = 0.727, 95%CI: 0.606-0.873; p = 0.001), Pre-CRT MRI EMVI (HR = 0.352, 95%CI: 0.262-0.473; p < 0.001), total neoadjuvant therapy (HR = 2.264, 95%CI: 1.280-4.004; p = 0.005). Meanwhile, the online version of the nomogram established in this study was publicized on an open-access website (URL: https://pcrpredict.shinyapps.io/LARC2/). The model predicted accuracy with a C-index of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.70-0.75), with an average C-index of 0.73 for the internal cross validation and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.72-0.83) for the external validation cohort, showing excellent model accuracy. Delong test results showed the model has an important gain value for clinical characteristics to predict pCR in rectal cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with pCR had a better prognosis, including OS and DFS, and were independently associated with Pre-CRT CEA, histopathology, Pre-CRT T/N stage, Pre-CRT MRI EMVI, and TNT. A web-based dynamic nomogram was successfully established for clinical use at any time.

Evaluation of ctDNA in the Prediction of Response to Neoadjuvant Therapy and Prognosis in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Patients: A Prospective Study

“Watch and wait” is becoming a common treatment option for patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) submitted to neoadjuvant treatment. However, currently, no clinical modality has an acceptable accuracy for predicting pathological complete response (pCR). The aim of this study was to assess the clinical utility of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in predicting the response and prognosis in these patients. We prospectively enrolled a cohort of three Iberian centers between January 2020 and December 2021 and performed an analysis on the association of ctDNA with the main response outcomes and disease-free survival (DFS). The rate of pCR in the total sample was 15.3%. A total of 24 plasma samples from 18 patients were analyzed by next-generation sequencing. At baseline, mutations were detected in 38.9%, with the most common being TP53 and KRAS. Combination of either positive magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) extramural venous invasion (mrEMVI) and ctDNA increased the risk of poor response (p = 0.021). Also, patients with two mutations vs. those with fewer than two mutations had a worse DFS (p = 0.005). Although these results should be read carefully due to sample size, this study suggests that baseline ctDNA combined with mrEMVI could potentially help to predict the response and baseline ctDNA number of mutations might allow the discrimination of groups with different DFS. Further studies are needed to clarify the role of ctDNA as an independent tool in the selection and management of LARC patients.

Expression Levels of GHRH-Receptor, pAkt and Hsp90 Predict 10-Year Overall Survival in Patients with Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

Background: Rectal cancer constitutes nearly one-third of all colorectal cancer diagnoses, and certain clinical and molecular markers have been studied as potential prognosticators of patient survival. The main objective of our study was to investigate the relationship between the expression intensities of certain proteins, including growth-hormone-releasing hormone receptor (GHRH-R), Hsp90, Hsp16.2, p-Akt and SOUL, in specimens of locally advanced rectal cancer patients, as well as the time to metastasis and 10-year overall survival (OS) rates. We also investigated whether these outcome measures were associated with the presence of other clinical parameters. Methods: In total, 109 patients were investigated retrospectively. Samples of pretreatment tumors were stained for the proteins GHRH-R, Hsp90, Hsp16.2, p-Akt and SOUL using immunhistochemistry methods. Kaplan–Meier curves were used to show the relationships between the intensity of expression of biomarkers, clinical parameters, the time to metastasis and the 10-year OS rate. Results: High levels of p-Akt, GHRH-R and Hsp90 were associated with a significantly decreased 10-year OS rate (p = 0.001, p = 0.000, p = 0.004, respectively) and high expression levels of p-Akt and GHRH-R were correlated with a significantly shorter time to metastasis. Tumors localized in the lower third of the rectum were linked to both a significantly longer time to metastasis and an improved 10-year OS rate. Conclusions: Hsp 90, pAkt and GHRH-R as well as the lower-third localization of the tumor were predictive of the 10-year OS rate in locally advanced rectal cancer patients. The GHRH-R and Hsp90 expression levels were independent prognosticators of OS. Our results imply that GHRH-R could play a particularly important role both as a molecular biomarker and as a target for the anticancer treatment of advanced rectal cancer.

Promises and Challenges of Predictive Blood Biomarkers for Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Treated with Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

The treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) requires a multimodal approach combining neoadjuvant radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and surgery. Predicting tumor response to CRT can guide clinical decision making and improve patient care while avoiding unnecessary toxicity and morbidity. Circulating biomarkers offer both the advantage to be easily accessed and followed over time. In recent years, biomarkers such as proteins, blood cells, or nucleic acids have been investigated for their predictive value in oncology. We conducted a comprehensive literature review with the aim to summarize the status of circulating biomarkers predicting response to CRT in LARC. Forty-nine publications, of which forty-seven full-text articles, one review and one systematic review, were retrieved. These studies evaluated circulating markers (CEA and CA 19-9), inflammatory biomarkers (CRP, albumin, and lymphocytes), hematologic markers (hemoglobin and thrombocytes), lipids and circulating nucleic acids (cell-free DNA [cfDNA], circulating tumor DNA [ctDNA], and microRNA [miRNA]). Post-CRT CEA levels had the most consistent association with tumor response, while cfDNA integrity index, MGMT promoter methylation, ERCC-1, miRNAs, and miRNA-related SNPs were identified as potential predictive markers. Although circulating biomarkers hold great promise, inconsistent results, low statistical power, and low specificity and sensibility prevent them from reliably predicting tumor response following CRT. Validation and standardization of methods and technologies are further required to confirm results.

A Predictive Model to Evaluate Pathologic Complete Response in Rectal Adenocarcinoma

Introduction: Neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy (nCRT) before surgery was a standard treatment strategy for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between the predictive factors and pathological complete response (pCR) in rectal cancer patients, especially in ultra-low ones. Method: A total of 402 patients were involved in this retrospective study. The logistic regression analyses were used to compare the different subgroups in univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the independent predictive factors of pCR by using a logistic regression model. Results: A total of 402 patients received preoperative CRT. In all patients, multivariate analysis revealed that circumferential tumor extent rate (CER) (≤ 2/3cycle vs >2/3 cycle, P < .001, OR = 4.834, 95% CI: 2.309-10.121), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level (both ≤ 5 vs pre > 5 and post ≤ 5 vs both > 5, P = .033, OR = 1.537, 95% CI: 1.035-2.281), and interval time between the end of CRT and surgery (P = .031, OR = 2.412, 95% CI: 1.086-5.358) were predictive factors for pCR. The area under the curve (AUC) of the predictive model was 0.709 (95% CI: 0.649-0.769), which was significantly higher than the CER (0.646, 95% CI: 0.584-0.709), interval time (0.563, 95% CI: 0.495-0.631) and CEA level (0.586, 95% CI: 0.518-0.655). In ultra-low rectal patients, multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that CER (≤ 2/3 cycle vs > 2/3 cycle, P = .003, OR = 7.203, 95% CI: 1.934-26.823) and mismatch repair (MMR) status (pMMR vs dMMR, P = .016, OR = 0.173, 95% CI: 0.041-0.720) were predictive factors for pCR. The AUC of the predictive model was 0.653 (95% CI: 0.474-0.832). Conclusion: New predictive models were varied by the histologic types and MMR statuses to evaluate the trend of tumor response to nCRT in all RC cases and ultra-low RC patients, which may be used to individualize stratify for selected LARC patients.

Pre-Treatment Computed Tomography Radiomics for Predicting the Response to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer: A Retrospective Study

Background and Purpose

Computerized tomography (CT) scans are commonly performed to assist in diagnosis and treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). This study assessed the usefulness of pretreatment CT-based radiomics for predicting pathological complete response (pCR) of LARC to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT).

Materials and Methods

Patients with LARC who underwent nCRT followed by total mesorectal excision surgery from July 2010 to December 2018 were enrolled in this retrospective study. A total of 340 radiomic features were extracted from pretreatment contrast-enhanced CT images. The most relevant features to pCR were selected using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method and a radiomic signature was generated. Predictive models were built with radiomic features and clinico-pathological variables. Model performance was assessed with decision curve analysis and was validated in an independent cohort.

Results

The pCR was achieved in 44 of the 216 consecutive patients (20.4%) in this study. The model with the best performance used both radiomics and clinical variables including radiomic signatures, distance to anal verge, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio, and carcinoembryonic antigen. This combined model discriminated between patients with and without pCR with an area under the curve of 0.926 and 0.872 in the training and the validation cohorts, respectively. The combined model also showed better performance than models built with radiomic or clinical variables alone.

Conclusion

Our combined predictive model was robust in differentiating patients with and without response to nCRT.

Predicting response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer: from biomarkers to tumor models

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a major contributor to cancer-associated morbidity worldwide and over one-third of CRC is located in the rectum. Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) followed by surgical resection is commonly applied to treat locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). In this review, we summarize current and novel concepts of neoadjuvant therapy for LARC such as total neoadjuvant therapy and describe how these developments impact treatment response. Moreover, as response to nCRT is highly divergent in rectal cancers, we discuss the role of potential predictive biomarkers. We review recent advances in biomarker discovery, from a clinical as well as a histopathological and molecular perspective. Furthermore, the role of emerging predictive biomarkers derived from the tumor environment such as immune cell composition and gut microbiome is presented. Finally, we describe how different tumor models such as patient-derived cancer organoids are used to identify novel predictive biomarkers for chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in rectal cancer.

Evaluation of Efficacy and Tolerance of Radical Radiotherapy and Radiochemotherapy in Treatment of Locally Advanced, Unresectable Rectal Cancer

Background: A retrospective evaluation of tolerance and efficacy of two schemes of neoadjuvant treatment in patients (pts) with unresectable rectal cancer: radiochemotherapy (CRT) and radiotherapy (RT), including conventional and accelerated hyperfractionation. Material and Method: A total of 145 consecutive pts with unresectable, locally advanced rectal cancer. The schemes used are RT in 73 (50%) or CRT in 72 (50%). In CRT, 54 Gy in 1.8 Gy fractions was given with chemotherapy, In the RT group, conventional fractionation (CFRT) and hyperfractionated accelerated radiotherapy (HART). HART was introduced at first as an alternative to CFRT, after radiobiological studies suggesting a therapeutic gain of hyperfractionation in other cancers, and second to administer relatively high dose needed in unresectable cancer, which is not feasible in hypofractionation because of critical organs sensitivity to high fraction doses (fd). HART was an alternative option in pts with medical contraindications to chemotherapy and to shorten overall treatment time with greater radiobiological effectiveness than CFRT. Results: Objective response (OR) in the RT and CRT group was 60% versus 75%. Resection rate (RR) in RT and CRT: 37% versus 65%. Tumor mobility and laparotomy-based unresectability were significant factors for OR. Performance status (PS), tumor mobility, and neoadjuvant treatment method were significant for RR.

A Novel Scoring System for Response of Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Using Early-Treatment Blood Features Derived From Machine Learning

Background

Preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) is a standard treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). However, individual responses to preoperative CRT vary from patient to patient. The aim of this study is to develop a scoring system for the response of preoperative CRT in LARC using blood features derived from machine learning.

Methods

Patients who underwent total mesorectal excision after preoperative CRT were included in this study. The performance of machine learning models using blood features before CRT (pre-CRT) and from 1 to 2 weeks after CRT (early-CRT) was evaluated. Based on the best model, important features were selected. The scoring system was developed from the selected model and features. The performance of the new scoring system was compared with those of systemic inflammatory indicators: neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio, and the prognostic nutritional index.

Results

The models using early-CRT blood features had better performances than those using pre-CRT blood features. Based on the ridge regression model, which showed the best performance among the machine learning models (AUROC 0.6322 and AUPRC 0.5965), a novel scoring system for the response of preoperative CRT, named Response Prediction Score (RPS), was developed. The RPS system showed higher predictive power (AUROC 0.6747) than single blood features and systemic inflammatory indicators and stratified the tumor regression grade and overall downstaging clearly.

Conclusion

We discovered that we can more accurately predict CRT response by using early-treatment blood data. With larger data, we can develop a more accurate and reliable indicator that can be used in real daily practices. In the future, we urge the collection of early-treatment blood data and pre-treatment blood data.

Biomarkers and cell-based models to predict the outcome of neoadjuvant therapy for rectal cancer patients

Rectal cancer constitutes approximately one-third of all colorectal cancers and contributes to considerable mortality globally. In contrast to colon cancer, the standard treatment for localized rectal cancer often involves neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Tumour response rates to treatment show substantial inter-patient heterogeneity, indicating a need for treatment stratification. Consequently researchers have attempted to establish new means for predicting tumour response in order to assist in treatment decisions. In this review we have summarized published findings regarding potential biomarkers to predict neoadjuvant treatment response for rectal cancer tumours. In addition, we describe cell-based models that can be utilized both for treatment prediction and for studying the complex mechanisms involved.

Association Between Pathological Complete Response and Tumor Location in Patients with Rectal Cancer After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy, a Prospective Cohort Study

Background: Colorectal cancers are the third common malignancies after lung and breast neoplasms. Some contributing factors for pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant therapy of rectal cancer have been defined. Despite various studies in this era, there are few studies on the location of tumors. Objectives: Regarding the high prevalence of colorectal cancer in Iran and the importance of neoadjuvant chemoradiation for survival and morbidity, this study was carried out to determine the association between pathologic complete response and tumor location in patients with rectal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Methods: In this prospective cohort, 100 cases with rectal adenocarcinoma from 2017 to 2019 were enrolled. Distance between anal verge and tumor was measured by clinical examination, colonoscopy, endo-sonography, and MRI. Tumors were defined as distal (less than 5 cm from the anal verge) and none distal (more than 5 cm from the anal verge). Another subdivision was inferior (0 - 4.99 cm), middle (5 - 9.99 cm), and superior (10 - 15 cm). The pathological response was compared across the groups. Results: In this study, the pCR was seen in 30%. In univariate analysis body mass index (BMI), grade, N-stage, and distance from anal verge were related to pCR. In cases with BMI over 25 kg/m2 and in tumors with low to medium grade N0/N1, and distance less than 5 cm from the anal verge (low lying tumors) the pCR to neoadjuvant treatment was higher. In multivariate analysis tumor grade, N stage, and distance from anal verge were still related to pCR. Conclusions: According to the obtained results in this study, there may be some association between rectal tumor location and pathologic complete response.

Pathologic-Based Nomograms for Predicting Overall Survival and Disease-Free Survival Among Patients with Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

Purpose

Preoperative neoadjuvant therapy is standard before surgery for locally advanced rectal cancer in current clinical treatment. However, patients with the same clinical TNM stage before treatment vary in clinical outcomes. More and more studies noted that pathological findings after preoperative neoadjuvant therapy are better prognostic factors to determine prognosis than clinical TNM stage in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. The purpose of this study is to develop and validate models based on pathological findings to predict overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS).

Patients and Methods

A total of 3026 patients from two hospitals were included. The endpoint was OS and DFS. Significant predictors of OS on multivariate analysis were used to establish the nomogram.

Results

The Harrell’s C index for OS prediction was 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.68 to 0.77) in the training cohort, 0.66 (95% CI, 0.60 to 0.72) and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64 to 0.73) in the internal and external validation cohorts. Using this nomogram, high- and low-risk groups for OS were defined in the training cohort. The 3-year OS was 78.1% (95% CI: 72.4–84.2%) for the high-risk group and 95% (95% CI: 93.6–96.5%) in the low-risk group (HR: 4.42, 95% CI: 3.22–6.05; P<0.001). This finding was also applied in the two external cohorts. Similarly, a nomogram that contained the same indices was developed and validated to predict for DFS.

Conclusion

Nomograms based on pathological findings are a reliable tool to predict 3-year OS and DFS rate in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer.

How to accurately measure the distance from the anal verge to rectal cancer on MRI: a prospective study using anal verge markers

PURPOSE

To determine an accurate method for localizing rectal cancer using the distance from the anal verge on preoperative MRI.

METHODS

This prospective study included 50 patients scheduled for MRI evaluation of rectal cancer. After rectal filling with gel, MRI was performed with two markers attached at the anal verge. The distance between the tumor and the anal verge on a sagittal T2-weighted image (T2WI) was measured independently by two radiologists using six methods divided into three groups of similar measurement approaches, and compared to those obtained on rigid sigmoidoscopy. The anal verge location relative to the external anal sphincter was assessed on oblique coronal T2WI in reference to the markers. Correlation analysis was performed using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for verification, and a paired t test was used to evaluate the mean differences.

RESULTS

The highest correlation (ICC 0.797-0.815) and the least mean difference (0.74-0.85 cm) with rigid sigmoidoscopy, and the least standard deviation (3.12-3.17 cm) were obtained in the direct methods group using a straight line from the anal verge to the tumor. The anal verge was localized within a range of - 1.4 to 1.5 cm (mean - 0.31 cm and - 0.22 cm) from the lower end of the external anal sphincter.

CONCLUSION

The direct methods group provided the most accurate tumor distance among the groups. Among the direct methods, we recommend the direct mass method for its simplicity. Despite minor differences in location, the lower end of the external anal sphincter was a reliable anatomical landmark for the anal verge.

Clinical predictors of pathological good response in locally advanced rectal cancer

Purpose

The aim of this study was to identify the clinical predictors of pathological good response (PGR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) to clarify the indications for local excision.

Methods and materials

A total of 173 patients with LARC (cT3–4/N +) who were treated with nCRT followed by surgery were enrolled in our retrospective study. Patients were categorized into two groups according to the different tumor responses of surgical pathology. Stage ypT0–1N0 was defined as the group with PGR, and stage ypT2–4N0/ypTanyN + was the defined as the pathological poor response (PPR) group, and the potential predictors were compared.

Results

Of 173 patients, PGR was achieved in 57 patients (32.95%). The distance from the inferior margin of the tumor to the anal verge, cT classification, pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and the interval from the end of radiation to surgery were correlated with pathological response. In the multivariate analysis, the distance from anal verge < 5 cm (OR = 0.443, p = 0.019), pretreatment CEA < 5 ng/mL (OR = 0.412, p = 0.015) and the interval from the end of radiation to surgery ≥ 84 days (OR = 2.652, p = 0.005) were independent predictors of PGR.

Conclusions

The distance from the inferior margin of the tumor to the anal verge, pretreatment CEA and the interval from the end of radiation to surgery were significant predictors of PGR in LARC. A prospective study is needed to further validate these results in the future.

A Comprehensive Evaluation of Associations Between Routinely Collected Staging Information and The Response to (Chemo)Radiotherapy in Rectal Cancer

Simple Summary

Rectal cancer patients are often treated with radiotherapy, either alone or combined with chemotherapy, prior to surgery to enable radical surgery on a non-resectable tumor or to lower the recurrence risk. For some patients, the tumor disappears completely after preoperative treatment, while others experience little or no benefit. Accurate prediction of therapy response before treatment is of great importance for a personalized treatment approach and intentional organ preservation. We performed a comprehensive evaluation of the predictive capacity of all routinely collected staging information at diagnosis in a population-based, completely staged patient material of 383 patients representing a real-life clinical situation. Size or stage of the rectal tumor were independent predictors of excellent response irrespective of preoperative treatment, with small/early-stage tumors being significantly more likely to reach a complete response. Levels of the tumor marker carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) above upper normal limit halved the chance of response.

Abstract

Radiotherapy (RT) or chemoradiotherapy (CRT) are frequently used in rectal cancer, sometimes resulting in complete tumor remission (CR). The predictive capacity of all clinical factors, laboratory values and magnetic resonance imaging parameters performed in routine staging was evaluated to understand what determines an excellent response to RT/CRT. A population-based cohort of 383 patients treated with short-course RT (5 × 5 Gy in one week, scRT), CRT, or scRT with chemotherapy (scRT+CT) and having either had a delay to surgery or been entered into a watch-and-wait program were included. Complete staging according to guidelines was performed and associations between investigated variables and CR rates were analyzed in univariate and multivariate analyses. In total, 17% achieved pathological or clinical CR, more often after scRT+CT and CRT than after scRT (27%, 18% and 8%, respectively, p < 0.001). Factors independently associated with CR included clinical tumor stage, small tumor size (<3 cm), tumor level, and low CEA-value (<3.8 μg/L). Size or stage of the rectal tumor were associated with excellent response in all therapy groups, with small or early stage tumors being significantly more likely to reach CR (p = 0.01 (scRT), p = 0.01 (CRT) and p = 0.02 (scRT+CT). Elevated level of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) halved the chance of response. Extramural vascular invasion (EMVI) and mucinous character may indicate less response to RT alone.

Prognostic value of changes in serum carcinoembryonic antigen levels for preoperative chemoradiotherapy response in locally advanced rectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) is a standard treatment modality for locally advanced rectal cancer. However, CRT alone cannot improve overall survival. Approximately 20% of patients with CRT-resistant tumors show disease progression. Therefore, predictive factors for treatment response are needed to identify patients who will benefit from CRT. We theorized that the prognosis may vary if patients are classified according to pre- to post-CRT changes in carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels.

AIM

To identify patients with locally advanced rectal cancer for preoperative chemoradiotherapy based on carcinoembryonic antigen levels.

METHODS

We retrospectively included locally advanced rectal cancer patients who underwent preoperative CRT and curative resection between 2011 and 2017. Patients were assigned to groups A, B, and C based on pre- and post-CRT serum CEA levels: Both > 5; pre > 5 and post ≤ 5; and both ≤ 5 ng/mL, respectively. We compared the response to CRT based on changes in serum CEA levels. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to determine optimal cutoff for neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio and platelet–lymphocyte ratio. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the prognostic factors for pathologic complete response (pCR)/good response.

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 145 patients; of them, 27, 43, and 65 belonged to groups A, B, and C, respectively, according to changes in serum CEA levels before and after CRT. Pre- (P < 0.001) and post-CRT (P < 0.001) CEA levels and the ratio of down-staging (P = 0.013) were higher in Groups B and C than in Group A. The ratio of pathologic tumor regression grade 0/1 significantly differed among the groups (P = 0.003). Group C had the highest number of patients showing pCR (P < 0.001). Most patients with pCR showed pre- and post-CRT CEA levels < 5 ng/mL (P < 0.001, P = 0.008). Pre- and post-CRT CEA levels were important risk factors for pCR (OR = 18.71; 95%CI: 4.62–129.51, P < 0.001) and good response (OR = 5.07; 95%CI: 1.92–14.83, P = 0.002), respectively. Pre-CRT neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio and post-CRT T ≥ 3 stage were also prognostic factors for pCR or good response.

CONCLUSION

Pre- and post-CRT CEA levels, as well as change in CEA levels, were prognostic markers for treatment response to CRT and may facilitate treatment individualization for rectal cancer.

Predictive factors of complete pathological response in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer

PURPOSE

Patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who achieve pathologic complete response (pCR) following neoadjuvant therapy have better long-term outcomes and could be spared from the perioperative and long-term morbidity of rectal resection. The aim of this study was to identify factors that predict the ability to achieve pCR at completion of conventional neoadjuvant therapy, therefore determining their suitability for non-surgical management.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed on data obtained from a prospectively maintained colorectal neoplasia database. Patients treated for biopsy-proven primary rectal adenocarcinoma between January 1, 2010, and February 28, 2018, who received neoadjuvant radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy and had undergone surgical resection, were included in this study. Five-year oncologic outcome data was also obtained for 144 patients. Clinicopathological tumour characteristics and treatment regimens were analysed for correlation to clinical outcome.

RESULTS

Three hundred fifty-four patients met inclusion criteria for this study. We identified significant differences between patients achieving a pCR and those that did not for tumour type (adenocarcinoma vs. mucinous/signet ring; p = 0.008), pre-treatment serum CEA level (</≥ 2.5 μg/L; p = 0.003), neoadjuvant therapy type (short-course radiotherapy and long-course chemoradiotherapy; p = 0.008) and preoperative lymph node status (node-negative versus node-positive disease; p = 0.031). Additionally, this is the first report to our knowledge to identify a significant correlation with pCR and the degree of tumour fixity (mobile vs. fixed/tethered; p = 0.038).

CONCLUSIONS

This retrospective analysis identified factors that significantly impact a patients' ability to achieve a pCR, which may prove useful for prospectively selecting patients suitable for non-surgical management of disease.

Effects of tumor distance from anal verge on survival outcomes for rectal NENs and lymphatic metastasis risk score for colorectal NENs

OBJECTIVE

To explore whether the distance of rectal neuroendocrine neoplasms from the anal margin has an impact on the prognosis of patients and evaluate lymphatic metastases risk score for colorectal neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs).

METHODS

Clinical pathological and follow-up data of 71 patients identified as colorectal neuroendocrine neoplasms by pathology from July 2011 to July 2019 were carefully collected.

RESULTS

Among 71 patients with colorectal NENs, most of the tumors were rectal NENs (62 cases). A total of 26 patients were in the presence of lymph node metastasis, and 44 patients had negative lymph nodes. Patients with lesions from the anal margin > 5 cm in rectum have a better prognosis (P = 0.022). Tumor stage (P = 0.034) and grade (P = 0.001) were independent risk predictors of lymphatic metastases. We developed a lymphatic metastasis risk score for rectal NENs, and patients with the score ≥ 7.5 were more likely to develop lymph node metastases (area 0.958, 95% CI 0.903-1.000, P = 0.000) with a sensitivity of 72.2% and a specificity of 97.3%.

CONCLUSION

Patients with lesions from the anal margin > 5 cm and lymphatic metastasis risk score ≥ 7.5 should be treated actively.

Serial circulating tumour DNA analysis for locally advanced rectal cancer treated with preoperative therapy: prediction of pathological response and postoperative recurrence

BACKGROUND

The "watch-and-wait" approach is a common treatment option amongst patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). However, the diagnostic sensitivity of clinical modalities, such as colonoscopy and magnetic resonance imaging to determine pathological response, is not high. We analysed the clinical utility of circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) of patients with LARC to predict response to preoperative therapy and postoperative recurrence.

METHODS

A serial ctDNA analysis of 222 plasma samples from 85 patients with LARC was performed using amplicon-based deep sequencing on a cell-free DNA panel covering 14 genes with over 240 hotspots.

RESULTS

ctDNA was detected in 57.6% and 22.3% of samples at baseline and after preoperative treatment, respectively, which was significantly different (P = 0.0003). Change in ctDNA was an independent predictor of complete response to preoperative therapy (P = 0.0276). In addition, postoperative ctDNA and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) were independent prognostic markers for risk of recurrence after surgery (ctDNA, P = 0.0127 and CEA, P = 0.0105), with a combined analysis having cumulative effects on recurrence-free survival (P = 1.0 × 10^-16).

CONCLUSIONS

Serial ctDNA analysis may offer clinically useful predictive and prognostic markers for response to preoperative therapy and postoperative recurrence in patients with LARC.

Predictors of Early Distant Relapse in Rectal Cancer Patients Submitted to Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy

BACKGROUND

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) is a standard treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer. CRT leads to a better local control; however, this does not translate into a survival benefit. Long-term survival is mostly affected by the development of distant metastases after surgery. This study aimed to evaluate predictive clinical factors for the development of early metastatic disease after CRT.

METHODS

Clinical data of patients with stage II/III rectal cancer submitted to CRT between January 2000 and October 2014 were collected from prospectively maintained electronic databases of three Italian institutes. Patients were divided into two groups: those who developed metastasis within 12 months from surgical resection (Group A) and patients without or with late distant relapse (Group B).

RESULTS

Among 635 patients, 86 (13.5%) had early distant relapse within 1 year from surgery (Group A), and 549 (86.5%) did not (Group B). A higher rate of early distant relapse was associated with CEA levels above 3 ng/dL (20% vs. 10%; p <0.001), tumor lying under 5 cm from anal verge (20% vs. 9%; p <0.001), and age under 63 years (17% vs. 11%; p = 0.036). Multivariate analysis confirmed these factors to be independently correlated with a higher risk of early metastasis.

CONCLUSIONS

Younger age, low tumors, and high serum CEA may be associated with unfavorable early oncological outcomes after CRT and surgery for rectal cancer. These clinical factors could be useful to select patients for more aggressive therapeutic strategies.

Impact of delaying surgery after chemoradiation in rectal cancer: outcomes from a tertiary cancer centre in India

Background

Delaying surgery after chemoradiation is one of the strategies for increasing tumor regression in rectal cancer. Tumour regression and PCR are known to have positive impact on survival.

Methods

It's a retrospective study of 161 patients undergoing surgery after neoadjuvant chemoradiation (NCRT) for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Patients were divided into three categories based on the gap between NCRT and surgery, i.e., <8, 8-12 and >12 weeks. Tumor regression grades (TRG), sphincter preservation, post-operative morbidity-mortality and survival were evaluated.

Results

Sphincter preservation was significantly less in >12 weeks group compared to the other two groups (P=0.003). Intraoperative blood loss was significantly higher in >12 weeks group compared to 8-12 weeks group (P=0.001).There was no difference in major postoperative morbidity and hospital stay among the groups. There was no significant correlation between delay and TRG (P=0.644). At Median follow up of 49.5 months the projected 3-year overall survival (OS) and disease free survival (DFS) were not significantly different among the 3 groups (OS: 79.5% vs. 83.3% vs. 76.5%; P=0.849 and DFS 50.4% vs. 70.6% vs. 62%; P=0.270 respectively).

Conclusions

Delaying surgery by more than 12 weeks causes more blood loss but no change in morbidity or hospital stay. Increased time interval between radiation and surgery does not improve tumor regression and has no effect on survival.

Association of pre-surgery to pre-radiotherapy lymphocyte counts ratio with disease-free survival in rectal cancer patients receiving neoadjuvant concurrent chemoradiotherapy

Background

Colorectal cancer is the fourth most common cancer globally and neoadjuvant concurrent chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and surgery are the standard treatments for locally advanced colorectal carcinoma. This study investigated the association between dynamic changes in absolute lymphocyte counts (ALCs) and disease-free survival (DFS) in rectal cancer patients receiving nCRT and identified factors associated with these changes.

Methods

We retrospectively examined 34 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who received nCRT followed by surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy. The association between ALCs and DFS and that between ALCs and downstaging were analyzed and potential clinical- and treatment-related factors related to dynamic changes in ALCs were subsequently evaluated. The patient eligibility criteria were as follows: pathologically confirmed rectal adenocarcinoma, clinical stages II–III, ≥ 18 years of age, and so on. Pre-RTL was defined as ALCs obtained before the initiation of nCRT and pre-SL was defined as ALCs obtained before surgery. We measured pre-SL to pre-RTL ratio (pre-SLR), DFS, and ALCs.

Results

The median ALC declined significantly during nCRT. A lower pre-SLR was associated with poorer DFS with statistical significance in Kaplan–Meier (p = 0.007), univariate regression (hazard ratio [HR] = 6.287, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.374–28.781, p = 0.018), and multivariable regression (HR = 7.347, 95% CI 1.595–33.850, p = 0.011) analyses. Neither patient characteristics nor treatment-related factors were related to downstaging. The pelvic bone marrow (PBM) volume receiving at least 30 Gy (V30) was significantly associated with pre-SLR in the univariate (HR = 5.760, 95% CI 1.317–25.187, p = 0.020) and multivariable (HR = 5.760, 95% CI 1.317–25.187, p = 0.020) regression analyses.

Limitations

Our study had several limitations. The sample size was small and the study was performed in a selected population, which may limit the generalization of the findings.

Conclusions

Radiotherapy had a profound impact on the change in ALCs. A lower pre-SLR was significantly associated with poorer DFS in rectal cancer patients receiving nCRT. The V30 of PBM was a predictor of pre-SLR.

The Relationship between Primary Gross Tumor Volume and Tumor Response of Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer: pGTV as a More Accurate Tumor Size Indicator

Purpose: To identify the clinical predictive factors of tumor response and to evaluate the significance of primary gross tumor volume (pGTV), obtained from radiotherapy planning, in predicting tumor response. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data of consecutive locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients who were treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) followed by radical surgery at our institution between March 2009 and December 2017. We identify independent predictors of tumor response to nCRT by statistical analysis. Disease-free survival (DFS) starting from the time of surgery was calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and log-rank tests were performed to compare DFS between patients with superior and inferior tumor response. Results: Overall, 185 LARC patients received nCRT, of whom 89 (48.11%) achieved superior tumor response. Diminutive pGTV (p = 0.038) and distance from the anal verge (DAV) (p = 0.006) were independent predictive factors of superior tumor response. Meanwhile, pGTV can be regarded as an independent predictor of pathologic complete response (pCR) (p = 0.036). The log-rank test revealed that DFS was longer in the diminutive pGTV group than in the giant pGTV group (p = 0.001). Conclusions: pGTV, as a measure of tumor size, is not only an important prognostic indicator but also an independent predictive factor of tumor response, even pCR.

Nomograms for predicting pathological response to neoadjuvant treatments in patients with rectal cancer

BACKGROUND

In recent decades, neoadjuvant therapy (NT) has been the standardized treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Approximately 8%-35% of patients with LARC who received NT were reported to have achieved a complete pathological response (pCR). If the pathological response (PR) can be accurately predicted, these patients may not need surgery. In addition, no response after NT implies that the tumor is destructive, resistant to both chemotherapy and radiotherapy, and prone to having a high metastatic potential. Therefore, developing accurate models to predict PR has great clinical significance and can help achieve individualized treatment in LARC patients.

AIM

To establish nomograms for predicting PR to different NT regimens based on pretreatment parameters for patients with LARC.

METHODS

Rectal cancer patients were identified from the database of The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University from January 2012 to December 2016. Logistic regression and nomograms were developed to predict the probability of pCR and good downstaging to ypT0-2N0M0 (ypTNM 0-I), respectively, based on pretreatment parameters for all LARC patients. Nomograms were also developed for three NT regimens (capecitabine/deGramont-RT, mFOLFOX6, and mFOLFOX6-RT) to predict pCR probability.

RESULTS

Four hundred and three patients were included in this study; 72 (17.9%) had pCR at the final pathology report, and 177 (43.9%) achieved good downstaging to ypT0-2N0M0 (ypTNM 0-I). The nomogram for predicting pCR probability showed that NT regimens, tumor differentiation, mesorectal fascia (MRF) status, and tumor length significantly influenced pCR probability. When predicting the probability of good downstaging, tumor differentiation, MRF status, and clinical T stage were the significant factors. Nomograms were developed based on NT regimens. For the capecitabine/de Gramont-RT group, the multivariate analysis showed that the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was the only significant factor, thus we could not develop a nomogram for this regimen. For the mFOLFOX6-RT group, the analysis showed that the significant factors were tumor length and MRF status; and for the mFOLFOX6 group, the significant factors were tumor length and tumor differentiation.

CONCLUSION

We established accurate nomograms for predicting the PR to preoperative NT regimens based on pretreatment parameters for LARC patients.

UGT1A1 polymorphisms in rectal cancer associated with the efficacy and toxicity of preoperative chemoradiotherapy using irinotecan

The purpose of the present study was to assess the efficacy and toxicity of preoperative chemoradiotherapy using irinotecan against locally advanced lower rectal cancer according to UDP-glucuronosyltransferase 1A1 (UGT1A1) polymorphisms. Between 2009 and 2016, 46 patients with resectable rectal cancer (T3-T4, N0-N2, M0) received preoperative chemoradiotherapy consisting of 80 mg/m2 per day tegafur/gimeracil/oteracil (S-1; days 1-5, 8-12, 22-26, and 29-33), 60 mg/m2 per day irinotecan (days 1, 8, 22, and 29), and 45 Gy radiation (1.8 Gy/day, 5 days per week for 5 weeks). Six to eight weeks after completing chemoradiotherapy, total mesorectal excision was carried out. Patients with UGT1A1 polymorphisms were divided into WT (n = 26), heterozygous (n = 15), and homozygous (n = 5) groups, the latter including double heterozygosities. We evaluated associations between clinical characteristics, including UGT1A1 polymorphisms, and chemoradiotherapy efficacy and toxicity. Incidence rates of grade 3+ neutropenia and diarrhea were 17.0% and 30.4%, respectively. Relative dose intensity was 89.3%. Pathological complete response rate (grade 3) was 26.1%, and the good response (grade 2/3) rate was 84.8%. UGT1A1 polymorphisms were significantly associated with neutropenia and pathological good responses, but not with diarrhea. UGT1A1 polymorphism was the only predictive factor for pathological good responses. Our results indicate that UGT1A1 polymorphism is a predictive factor to determine the clinical efficacy of preoperative chemoradiotherapy and hematological toxicity induced by chemoradiotherapy using irinotecan in locally advanced rectal cancer patients.

Elevated platelet count is a negative predictive and prognostic marker in locally advanced rectal cancer undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiation: a retrospective multi-institutional study on 965 patients

BACKGROUND

In patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated by neoadjuvant chemoradiation, pathological complete response in the surgical specimen is associated with favourable long-term oncologic outcome. Based on this observation, nonoperative management is being explored in the subset of patients with clinical complete response. Whereas, patients with poor response have a high risk of local and distant recurrence, and appear to receive no benefit from standard neoadjuvant chemoradiation. Therefore, in order to develop alternative treatment strategies for non responding patients, predictive and prognostic factors are highly needed. Accumulating clinical observations indicate that elevated platelet count is associated with poor outcome in different type of tumors. In this study we investigated the predictive and prognostic impact of elevated platelet count on pathological response and long-term oncologic outcome in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiation.

METHODS

A total of 965 patients were selected from prospectively maintained databases of seven Centers within the SICO Colorectal Cancer Network. Patients were divided into two groups based on a pre-neoadjuvant chemoradiation platelet count cut-off value of 300 × 10⁹/L identified by receiver operating characteristic curve considering complete pathological response as the outcome.

RESULTS

Complete pathological response rate was lower in patients with elevated platelet count (12.8% vs. 22.1%, p = 0.001). Mean follow-up was 50.1 months. Comparing patients with elevated platelet count with patients with not elevated platelet count, 5-year overall survival was 69.5% vs.76.5% (p = 0.016), and 5-year disease free survival was 63.0% vs. 68.9% (p = 0.019). Local recurrence rate was higher in patients with elevated platelet count (11.1% vs. 5.3%, p = 0.001), as higher was the occurrence of distant metastasis (23.9% vs. 16.4%, p = 0.007). At multivariate analysis of potential prognostic factors EPC was independently associated with worse overall survival (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.06-1.86), and disease free survival (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.07-1.76).

CONCLUSIONS

In locally advanced rectal cancer elevated platelet count before neoadjuvant chemoradiation is a negative predictive and prognostic factor which might help to identify subsets of patients with more aggressive tumors to be proposed for alternative therapeutic strategies.

Clinical and molecular diagnosis of pathologic complete response in rectal cancer: an update

INTRODUCTION

The standard of care for locally advanced rectal cancer includes neoadjuvant chemoradiation with subsequent total mesorectal excision. This approach has shown various degrees of response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation (ranging from complete response to further tumor growth), which have substantial prognostic and therapeutic implications. A total regression of the tumor is a predictor of superior oncologic outcomes compared with partial responders and non-responders. Further, this concept has opened the possibility of nonoperative strategies for complete responders and explains the widespread research interest in finding clinical, radiographic, pathologic, and biochemical parameters that allow for identification of these patients. Areas covered: The present review evaluates the most recent efforts in the literature to identify predictors of patients likely to achieve a complete response following neoadjuvant treatment for the management of rectal cancer. This includes clinical predictors of pathologic complete response such as tumor location, size, and stage, molecular predictors such as tumor biology and microRNA, serum biomarkers such as carcinoembryogenic antigen and nomograms. Expert commentary: There has been significant progress in our ability to predict pathological complete response. However, more high-quality research is still needed to use this concept to confidently dictate clinical management.

Predictive value of carcinoembryonic antigen and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 related to downstaging to stage 0-I after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer

Objective

To explore the value of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) in predicting downstaging to stage 0–I cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in locally advanced rectal cancer.

Materials and methods

We respectively investigated pretreatment CEA, pretreatment CA19-9, posttreatment CEA, posttreatment CA19-9, pre–post-CA19-9 ratio, and pre–post-CEA ratio in 674 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer receiving nCRT and determined the patients’ thresholds by using the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The association between downstaging (stage 0–I after nCRT), pathological complete response, and clinicopathological parameters was evaluated using the Pearson χ2 test. The clinicopathological parameters which were found to be significantly associated with downstaging were analyzed by logistic regression models and were incorporated into a scoring system.

Results

Multivariate analysis showed that pretreatment CA19-9 level, posttreatment CEA level, pre–post-CEA ratio, and pre–post-CA19-9 ratio were significantly correlated with downstaging. Area under the curve of the scoring system was higher than that of parameters alone.

Conclusion

The 4-factor scoring system with CA19-9 level, posttreatment CEA level, pre– post-CEA ratio, and pre–post-CA19-9 ratio is of more value in predicting downstaging to stage 0–I patients with locally advanced rectal cancer after nCRT than using the parameters alone.

Carcinoembryonic antigen as a marker of radioresistance in colorectal cancer: a potential role of macrophages

Background

We sought to identify the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) as a marker of radioresistance in rectal cancer.

Methods

From July 1997 to January 2008, 104 patients with stage II or III rectal cancer who were treated with post-operative radiotherapy (PORT) were included in this study. The doses of radiotherapy ranged from 45 to 54.6 Gy. The CEA levels were measured before surgery. We analyzed the actuarial rates of overall survival (OS), distant metastasis (DM), and local recurrence (LR) using Kaplan-Meier curves. Multivariate analyses were performed with Cox regression models. We used THP-1 monocyte cell lines for macrophage differentiation (M0, M1 or M2). The RNA extracted from the macrophages was analyzed via a genomic method in the core laboratory. The radiosensitivities of CEA-rich LS1034 cells were compared between cells with and without the conditioned media from CEA-stimulated macrophages.

Results

Preoperative CEA levels ≥10 ng/mL were independent predictive factors for OS (p = 0.005), DM (p = 0.026), and LR (p = 0.004). The OS rates among the patients with pretreatment CEA levels < 10 ng/mL and ≥10 ng/mL were 64.5% and 35.9% (p = 0.004), respectively. The corresponding rates of DM were 40.6% and 73.1% (p = 0.024). The corresponding rates of LR were 6.6% and 33.9% (p = 0.002). In the M0 macrophages, exogenous CEA elicited a dose-response relationship with M2 differentiation. In the CEA-stimulated M0 cells, some mRNAs were upregulated by as much as 5-fold, including MMP12, GDF15, and JAG1. In the CEA-stimulated M2 cells, a 4-fold up-regulation of GADD45G mRNA was noted. The conditioned media from the CEA-stimulated M2 cells elicited an increase in the numbers of LS180, SW620, and LS1034 cells after irradiation. CEA caused the M2 differentiation of the macrophages.

Conclusion

Pretreatment CEA levels ≥10 ng/mL are a significant risk factor for OS, DM, and LR following PORT for rectal cancer. CEA causes radioresistance in the presence of M2 macrophages. More comprehensive examinations prior to surgery and intensive adjuvant therapy are suggested for patients with CEA levels ≥10 ng/mL. Further studies of these mechanisms are needed.

Mean Corpuscular Volume as a Predictive Factor of Response to Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

Background

The aim of this study was to identify if blood routine parameters and serum tumor marker are potential predictive factors for tumor response to preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in locally advanced rectal cancer.

Materials and Methods

55 locally advanced rectal cancer patients were treated with preoperative CRT in this study. The total dose of preoperative radiotherapy was 45 Gy in 25 fractions of 1.8 in 5 weeks. All patients concurrently received 825 mg/m² capecitabine orally twice daily on days 1 to 14 and 22 to 35. Total mesorectal excision (TME) was performed 6 weeks after the end of preoperative CRT. Blood routine examination and serum tumor marker were checked before preoperative CRT. Tumor response to preoperative CRT was evaluated with the semiquantitative tumor regression grading (TRG) system proposed by Dworak criteria according to histopathological examination of the surgical specimens. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to test the association between blood routine parameters and serum tumor marker and tumor response to preoperative CRT.

Results

Univariate logistic regression analysis revealed that differentiation, lymphocyte, LMR, MCV, PLR, and CEA have been significantly associated with tumor response to preoperative CRT. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that differentiation, MCV, and CEA were the predictors of tumor response to preoperative CRT. According to the ROC analysis, the AUC of differentiation, MCV, and CEA was 0.794, 0.802, and 0.723, respectively. Optimal cutoff points for MCV and CEA were 87.65 fl and 4.05 ng/ml, respectively.

Conclusion

MCV is a potential predictive factor for tumor response to preoperative chemoradiation in locally advanced rectal cancer.

Pathologic response following treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer: Does location matter?

BACKGROUND

Despite advances in the treatment of rectal adenocarcinoma, the management of locally advanced disease remains a challenge. The standard of care for patients with stages II and III rectal cancer includes neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by total mesorectal excision and postoperative chemotherapy. Much effort has been dedicated to the identification of predictive factors associated with pathologic complete response (pCR). The aim of our study was to examine our institutional experience and determine whether any association exists between anatomic tumor location and the rate of pCR. We hypothesized that lesions more than 6 cm from the anal verge are more likely to achieve a pCR.

METHODS

Using data from our prospectively maintained tumor registry, a query was completed to identify all patients with locally advanced rectal adenocarcinoma who underwent treatment at Fox Chase Cancer Center from 2002 to 2015. Demographics, pretreatment, posttreatment, and final pathologic TNM staging data were collected as well as treatment intervals in days, recurrence status, overall survival, and disease-free survival. Patients with incomplete endoscopic data, staging information, survival, or recurrence status were excluded. The primary outcome measured was the degree of pathologic response. Logistic regression was used to adjust for covariates.

RESULTS

Of the 135 patients eligible in the study cohort, 39% were female and 61% were male. Regarding initial clinical stage, 43% were stage II and 57% were stage III. A total of 29% had a pCR, 43% had partial pathologic response, and 28% had no response to neoadjuvant treatment. Tumor location ranged from 0 to 13 cm from the anal verge. Longitudinal tumor length was recorded in 111 patients, facilitating the calculation of mean tumor distance from the anal verge. This ranged from 0 to 15.5 cm. Univariate and multivariable analyses were completed using pCR as a primary outcome. No statistically significant difference was noted based on tumor location, regardless of measurement approach.

CONCLUSIONS

Anatomic location of cancer of the rectum does not affect pCR after neoadjuvant therapy and subsequent surgical resection.

Relations of Changes in Serum Carcinoembryonic Antigen Levels before and after Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy and after Surgery to Histologic Response and Outcomes in Patients with Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

OBJECTIVES

The histologic response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) has been intimately related to outcomes in locally advanced rectal cancer. Serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels change after nCRT and after surgery as compared with before nCRT.

METHODS

The subjects were 149 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who received nCRT between 2005 and 2013. The patients were divided into 4 groups according to the serum CEA levels: group 1, 55 patients with negative serum CEA levels before nCRT; group 2, 41 patients with positive serum CEA levels before nCRT that became negative after nCRT; group 3, 37 patients with positive serum CEA levels after nCRT that became negative after surgery; and group 4, 16 patients with positive serum CEA levels after nCRT as well as after surgery.

RESULTS

Pathological complete response, T downstaging, and tumor shrinkage were significantly higher in group 1 than in other groups. Disease-free survival was significantly poorer in group 4. The lack of a decrease in the serum CEA level in group 4 was most likely attributed to the persistence of micrometastases outside the resection field.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in serum CEA levels measured before nCRT, after nCRT, and after surgery can be used to reliably predict the histologic response to nCRT and outcomes.

Morphologic predictors of pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer

Purpose

To evaluate the value of morphological parameters that can be obtained conveniently by MRI for predicting pathologically complete response (pCR) in patients with rectal cancer.

Materials and Methods

A cohort of 101 patients was examined using MRI before and after Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT). Morphological parameters including maximum tumor area (MTA), maximum tumor length (MTL) and maximum tumor thickness (MTT), as well as cylindrical approximated tumor volume (CATV), distance to anal verge (DTA), and the reduction rates were evaluated by two experienced readers independently.

Results

Post-nCRT MTA and MTL, reduction rates and pre-nCRT DTA were proved to be significantly different between pCR and non-pCR with the AUCs of 0.672-0.853. The sensitivity and specificity for assessing pCR were 61.1-89.9% and 59.0-80.7% respectively. No significant correlation between pre-nCRT size measurements and pCR was obtained.

Conclusion

The convenient morphological measurements may be useful for predicting pCR with moderate sensitivity and specificity. Combining these predictors with the aim of building diagnostic model should be explored.

Current issues of preoperative radio(chemo)therapy and its future evolution in locally advanced rectal cancer

Neoadjuvant therapies are effective for local control and tumor downstaging. Up to date, preoperative long-course chemoradiotherapy and short-course radiotherapy are the two primary guideline-recommended neoadjuvant therapies for locally advanced rectal cancer patients. However, clinicians throughout the world are trying their best to further optimize the regimens and concepts of neoadjuvants. Hence, there is an urgent need to summarize evidence regarding indications of neaoadjuvant therapies and relative merits of current standard regimens. In addition, we also reviewed the optimized regimens mainly based on short-course radiotherapy with delayed surgery, consolidation chemotherapy, induction chemotherapy, chemotherapy alone without radiation and concepts in terms of organ preservation and personalized treatments to further explore the future evolution of neoadjuvant therapies in rectal cancer.

Pre-treatment carcinoembryonic antigen and outcome of patients with rectal cancer receiving neo-adjuvant chemo-radiation and surgical resection: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Neo-adjuvant chemo-radiation is the standard of care for patients with locally advanced rectal carcinoma. The aim of the present paper is to evaluate the relationship of the baseline serologic concentration of the carcinoembryonic antigen with the outcome. Data sources included MEDLINE and Web of Science databases. A systematic search of the databases by a predefined criterion has been conducted. Chemo-radiation followed by surgical resection of rectal tumors was the intervention of interest. From selected studies, the relationships between carcinoembryonic antigen and pathologic complete response, disease-free survival and overall survival were assessed. Carcinoembryonic antigen correlated significantly and inversely with the rate of pathologic complete responses (OR 2.00). Similar to this relationship, a low baseline carcinoembryonic antigen concentration was associated with a better disease-free survival (OR 1.88) and a better overall survival (OR 1.85). Heterogeneity of studies and publication bias were considerable in evaluating the relationship of baseline carcinoembryonic antigen and pathologic complete response. Baseline carcinoembryonic antigen should be regarded as a predictor of outcome of patients undergoing neo-adjuvant chemo-radiation. A calibration of the cutoff value from 5 to 3 ng/ml appears more appropriate to this patient population and should be evaluated in prospective trials.

Changes of Microrna Levels in Plasma of Patients with Rectal Cancer during Chemoradiotherapy

Since the response to chemoradiotherapy in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer is heterogeneous, valid biomarkers are needed to monitor tumor response. Circulating microRNAs are promising candidates, however analyses of circulating microRNAs in rectal cancer are still rare. 111 patients with rectal cancer and 46 age-matched normal controls were enrolled. The expression levels of 30 microRNAs were analyzed in 17 pre-treatment patients’ plasma samples. Differentially regulated microRNAs were validated in 94 independent patients. For 52 of the 94 patients a paired comparison between pre-treatment and post-treatment samples was performed. miR-17, miR-18b, miR-20a, miR-31, and miR-193a_3p, were significantly downregulated in pre-treatment plasma samples of patients with rectal cancer (p < 0.05). miR-29c, miR-30c, and miR-195 showed a trend of differential regulation. After validation, miR-31 and miR-30c were significantly deregulated by a decrease of expression. In 52 patients expression analyses of the 8 microRNAs in matched pre-treatment and post-treatment samples showed a significant decrease for all microRNAs (p < 0.05) after treatment. Expression levels of miR-31 and miR-30c could serve as valid biomarkers if validated in a prospective study. Plasma microRNA expression levels do not necessarily represent miRNA expression levels in tumor tissue. Also, expression levels of microRNAs change during multimodal therapy.

Predictive and Prognostic Molecular Biomarkers for Response to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation in Rectal Cancer

The standard of care in locally advanced rectal cancer is neoadjuvant chemoradiation (nCRT) followed by radical surgery. Response to nCRT varies among patients and pathological complete response is associated with better outcome. However, there is a lack of effective methods to select rectal cancer patients who would or would not have a benefit from nCRT. The utility of clinicopathological and radiological features are limited due to lack of adequate sensitivity and specificity. Molecular biomarkers have the potential to predict response to nCRT at an early time point, but none have currently reached the clinic. Integration of diverse types of biomarkers including clinicopathological and imaging features, identification of mechanistic link to tumor biology, and rigorous validation using samples which represent disease heterogeneity, will allow to develop a sensitive and cost-effective molecular biomarker panel for precision medicine in rectal cancer. Here, we aim to review the recent advance in tissue- and blood-based molecular biomarker research and illustrate their potential in predicting nCRT response in rectal cancer.

Nodal tumor response according to the count of peripheral blood lymphocyte subpopulations during preoperative chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer

PURPOSE

The objective of this prospective study was to evaluate the relationship between the circulating lymphocyte subpopulation counts during preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and tumor response in locally advanced rectal cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From August 2015 to June 2016, 10 patients treated with preoperative CRT followed by surgery were enrolled. Patients received conventional fractionated radiotherapy (50.4 Gy) with fluorouracil-based chemotherapy. Surgical resection was performed at 4 to 8 weeks after the completion of preoperative CRT. The absolute blood lymphocyte subpopulation was obtained prior to and after 4 weeks of CRT. We analyzed the association between a tumor response and change in the lymphocyte subpopulation during CRT.

RESULTS

Among 10 patients, 2 (20%) had evidence of pathologic complete response. In 8 patients with clinically node positive, 4 (50%) had nodal tumor response. All lymphocyte subpopulation counts at 4 weeks after CRT were significantly lower than those observed during pretreatment (p < 0.01). A high decrease in natural killer (NK) cell, count during CRT (baseline cell count - cell count at 4 weeks) was associated with node down staging (p = 0.034).

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that the change of lymphocyte subset to preoperative CRT may be a predictive factor for tumor response in rectal cancer.

Selecting stage ypT0-1N0 for locally advanced rectal cancer following preoperative chemoradiotherapy: implications for potential candidates of organ-sparing management

AIM

Local excision or a wait-and-see policy may offer the possibility of organ preservation for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) after preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Identifying associated factors of good responders (GR) with stage ypT0-1N0 would probably influence the selection of potential candidates who were theoretically eligible for organ-sparing management. This study was to establish a scoring system to select stage ypT0-1N0 for LARC following preoperative CRT.

METHOD

Between 2009 and 2014, 262 patients with middle and low LARC were treated with CRT and radical surgery. Clinicopathological data which were found to be significantly associated with GR were incorporated into a scoring system.

RESULTS

Fifty-seven (21.8%) patients were GR with stage ypT0-1N0 in the operative specimen. Multivariate analyses indicated that a low level of pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and post-treatment CEA <2.55 ng/ml (P = 0.008 and P = 0.009 respectively) and long-axis diameter of residual tumours (P = 0.006) were independently associated with stage ypT0-1N0. The three factors were incorporated into a scoring system. Using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, we determined a cutoff value of -0.3 for scores, at which the system's sensitivity was 71.9% and specificity 73.1%. When applied to testing samples, the sensitivity was 74.1% and specificity 76.2%.

CONCLUSION

We demonstrated that low levels of pretreatment and post-treatment CEA and the long-axis diameter of residual tumours were associated with stage ypT0-1N0 for LARC after CRT. Therefore, the three-factor scoring system may be used to select potential candidates for organ-sparing management.

Distance to the anal verge is associated with pathologic complete response to neoadjuvant therapy in locally advanced rectal cancer

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Achieving a pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant therapy has been associated with better prognosis in rectal cancer patients. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between distance to the anal verge (DTAV) and pCR.

METHODS

Review of a prospectively maintained database of patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who received neoadjuvant treatment was completed. Uni- and multivariate analysis assessed the association between DTAV and pCR after neoadjuvant therapy.

RESULTS

Of 827 included patients, 20% had a pCR. We found that pCR rates were 11% for tumors <4 cm, 24% for tumors 4-6 cm, 30% for tumors at 6-8 cm, 17% for tumors 8-10 cm, and 14% for tumors >10 cm from the anal verge (P = 0.002). Multivariate analysis also showed a strong association between DTAV and pCR (P = 0.008). The bimodal distribution of pCR resulted in a lower odds ratio of pCR for tumors <4 and >8 cm from the anal verge.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with low tumors (<4 cm) and higher tumors (>8 cm), were less likely to have a pCR. Further investigation is warranted to determine if these observations are related to tumor biology or possibly differences in radiation technique. J. Surg. Oncol. 2016;114:637-641. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Nomogram to Predict Lymph Node Positivity Following Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

BACKGROUND

Patients with locally advanced rectal cancer typically receive neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by total mesorectal excision. Other treatment approaches, including transanal techniques and close surveillance, are becoming increasingly common following positive responses to chemoradiation. Lack of pathologic lymph node staging is one major disadvantage of these novel strategies.

OBJECTIVE

The purposes of this study were to determine clinicopathologic factors associated with positive lymph nodes following neoadjuvant chemoradiation for rectal cancer and to create a nomogram using these factors to predict rates of lymph node positivity.

DESIGN

This is a retrospective cohort analysis.

SETTINGS

This study used the National Cancer Database.

PATIENTS

Patients aged 18 to 90 with clinical stage T3/T4, N0, M0 or Tany, N1-2, M0 adenocarcinoma of the rectum who underwent neoadjuvant chemoradiation before total mesorectal excision from 2010 to 2012 were identified.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was lymph node positivity after neoadjuvant chemoradiation for locally advanced rectal cancer. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine the associations of clinicopathologic variables with lymph node positivity.

RESULTS

Eight thousand nine hundred eighty-four patients were included. Young age, lower Charlson score, mucinous histology, poorly differentiated and undifferentiated tumors, the presence of lymphovascular invasion, elevated CEA level, and clinical lymph node positivity were significantly predictive of pathologic lymph node positivity following neoadjuvant chemoradiation. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram is 70.9%, with a c index of 0.71. There was minimal deviation between the predicted and observed outcomes.

LIMITATIONS

This study is retrospective, and it cannot be determined when in the course of treatment the data were collected.

CONCLUSIONS

We created a nomogram to predict lymph node positivity following neoadjuvant chemoradiation for locally advanced rectal cancer that can serve as a valuable complement to imaging to aid clinicians and patients in determining the best treatment strategy.

Predictors of pathologic complete response after preoperative concurrent chemoradiotherapy of rectal cancer: a single center experience

Purpose:

To identify possible predictors of pathologic complete response (pCR) of rectal cancer after preoperative concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT).

Materials and Methods:

We conducted a retrospective review of 53 patients with rectal cancer who underwent preoperative CCRT followed by radical surgery at a single center between January 2007 and December 2012. The median radiotherapy dose to the pelvis was 54.0 Gy (range, 45.0 to 63.0 Gy). Five-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy was administered via continuous infusion with leucovorin.

Results:

The pCR rate was 20.8%. The downstaging rate was 66%. In univariate analyses, poor and undifferentiated tumors (p = 0.020) and an interval of ≥7 weeks from finishing CCRT to surgery (p = 0.040) were significantly associated with pCR, while female gender (p = 0.070), initial carcinoembryonic antigen concentration of <5.0 ng/dL (p = 0.100), and clinical stage T2 (p = 0.100) were marginally significant factors. In multivariate analysis, an interval of ≥7 weeks from finishing CCRT to surgery (odds ratio, 0.139; 95% confidence interval, 0.022 to 0.877; p = 0.036) was significantly associated with pCR, while stage T2 (odds ratio, 5.363; 95% confidence interval, 0.963 to 29.877; p = 0.055) was a marginally significant risk factor.

Conclusion:

We suggest that the interval from finishing CCRT to surgery is a predictor of pCR after preoperative CCRT in patients with rectal cancer. Stage T2 cancer may also be an important predictive factor. We hope to perform a robust study by collecting data during treatment to obtain more advanced results.

Predicting pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer: a systematic review

AIM

Approximately 20% of patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) for locally advanced rectal cancer achieve a pathological complete response (pCR) while the remainder derive the benefit of improved local control and downstaging and a small proportion show a minimal response. The ability to predict which patients will benefit would allow for improved patient stratification directing therapy to those who are likely to achieve a good response, thereby avoiding ineffective treatment in those unlikely to benefit.

METHOD

A systematic review of the English language literature was conducted to identify pathological factors, imaging modalities and molecular factors that predict pCR following chemoradiotherapy. PubMed, MEDLINE and Cochrane Database searches were conducted with the following keywords and MeSH search terms: 'rectal neoplasm', 'response', 'neoadjuvant', 'preoperative chemoradiation', 'tumor response'. After review of title and abstracts, 85 articles addressing the prediction of pCR were selected.

RESULTS

Clear methods to predict pCR before chemoradiotherapy have not been defined. Clinical and radiological features of the primary cancer have limited ability to predict response. Molecular profiling holds the greatest potential to predict pCR but adoption of this technology will require greater concordance between cohorts for the biomarkers currently under investigation.

CONCLUSION

At present no robust markers of the prediction of pCR have been identified and the topic remains an area for future research. This review critically evaluates existing literature providing an overview of the methods currently available to predict pCR to nCRT for locally advanced rectal cancer. The review also provides a comprehensive comparison of the accuracy of each modality.

Association of pretreatment serum carcinoembryonic antigen levels with chemoradiation-induced downstaging and downsizing of rectal cancer

The aim of this study was to identify pretreatment clinical parameters associated with preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT)-induced downstaging and downsizing of locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC T3-4 or N+). Data from 51 LARC patients, who received preoperative CRT and radical surgery between 2010 and 2013, were retrospectively analyzed. Rectal adenocarcinoma was histologically confirmed in all patients, who ranged in age between 41 and 81 years (median, 64 years). CRT consisted of 50.4 Gy pelvic radiotherapy with concurrent chemotherapy using 5-fluorouracil and leucovorin. After a median interval of 7 weeks post-CRT, the patients underwent total mesorectal excision. Downstaging was defined as the transition from cStage II-III to ypStage 0-I. The longest tumor diameter was measured pre- and post-CRT using computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, and based on the surgical specimen, respectively. Downstaging was observed in 16 (31.4%) patients, including 5 (9.8%) with a pathological complete response. The median downsizing rate was 60%. The serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels were 0.8-153.9 ng/ml (median, 4.4 ng/ml). The maximum standardized uptake value was 4.7-33.9 (median, 10.8). On univariate analysis, cT stage, tumor size and CEA level were associated with downstaging. On multivariate analysis, only CEA level (≤5 ng/ml) was a significant predictor of downstaging (odds ratio = 16.0; 95% confidence interval: 1.8-146.7; P=0.014). CEA level was the only factor significantly associated with downsizing (>60%) in the univariate analysis. These results demonstrated that pretreatment serum CEA levels are significantly associated with downstaging as well as downsizing of LARC following preoperative CRT. Therefore, this parameter may be useful in personalizing the management of LARC patients.

Predictive Response Value of Pre- and Postchemoradiotherapy Variables in Rectal Cancer: An Analysis of Histological Data

Background. Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) followed by curative surgery in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) improves pelvic disease control. Survival improvement is achieved only if pathological response occurs. Mandard tumor regression grade (TRG) proved to be a valid system to measure nCRT response. Potential predictive factors for Mandard response are analyzed. Materials and Methods. 167 patients with LARC were treated with nCRT and curative surgery. Tumor biopsies and surgical specimens were reviewed and analyzed regarding mitotic count, necrosis, desmoplastic reaction, and inflammatory infiltration grade. Surgical specimens were classified according to Mandard TRG. The patients were divided as "good responders" (Mandard TRG1-2) and "bad responders" (Mandard TRG3-5). According to results from our previous data, good responders have better prognosis than bad responders. We examined predictive factors for Mandard response and performed statistical analysis. Results. In univariate analysis, distance from anal verge and ten other postoperative variables related with nCRT tumor response had predictive value for Mandard response. In multivariable analysis only mitotic count, necrosis, and differentiation grade in surgical specimen had predictive value. Conclusions. There is a lack of clinical and pathological preoperative variables able to predict Mandard response. Only postoperative pathological parameters related with nCRT response have predictive value.

Watch and Wait?--Elevated Pretreatment CEA Is Associated with Decreased Pathological Complete Response in Rectal Cancer

INTRODUCTION

Between 10 and 30% of rectal cancer patients experience pathological complete response after neoadjuvant treatment. However, physiological factors predicting which patients will experience tumor response are largely unknown. Previous single-institution studies have suggested an association between elevated pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen and decreased pathological complete response.

METHODS

Clinical stage II-III rectal cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and surgical resection were selected from the 2006-2011 National Cancer Data Base. Multivariable analysis was used to examine the association between elevated pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen and pathological complete response, pathological tumor regression, tumor downstaging, and overall survival.

RESULTS

Of the 18,113 patients meeting the inclusion criteria, 47% had elevated pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen and 13% experienced pathological compete response. Elevated pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen was independently associated with decreased pathological complete response (OR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.52-0.77, p < 0.001), pathological tumor regression (OR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.67-0.70, p < 0.001), tumor downstaging (OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.63-0.92, p < 0.001), and overall survival (HR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.34-1.58, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Rectal cancer patients with elevated pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen are less likely to experience pathological complete response, pathological tumor regression, and tumor downstaging after neoadjuvant treatment and experience decreased survival. These patients may not be suitable candidates for an observational "watch-and-wait" strategy. Future prospective studies should investigate the relationships between CEA levels, neoadjuvant treatment response, recurrence, and survival.