Prognostic value of TLR from FDG PET/CT in patients with margin-negative stage IB and IIA non-small cell lung cancer

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the prognostic value of TLR from PET/CT in patients with resection margin-negative stage IB and IIA non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and compare high-risk factors necessitating adjuvant treatment (AT).

METHODS

Consecutive FDG PET/CT scans performed for the initial staging of NSCLC stage IB and IIA were retrospectively reviewed. The maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) of the primary tumor and mean SUV of the liver were acquired. The tumor-to-liver SUV ratio (TLR) was also calculated. Charts were reviewed for basic patient characteristics and high-risk factors for considering AT (poor differentiation, visceral pleura invasion, vascular invasion, tumors > 4 cm, and wedge resection). Statistical analysis was performed using Cox regression analysis and the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

Of the 112 patients included, 15 (13.4%) died, with a median overall survival (OS) of 43.8 months. Twenty-two patients (19.6%) exhibited recurrence, with median disease-free survival (DFS) of 36.0 months. In univariable analysis, pathology, poor differentiation, and TLR were associated with shorter DFS and OS. In multivariable analysis, TLR (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.263, p = 0.008) and differentiation (HR = 3.087, p = 0.012) were associated with shorter DFS. Also, TLR (HR = 1.422, p < 0.001) was associated with shorter OS.

CONCLUSION

TLR from FDG PET/CT was an independent prognostic factor for recurrence and survival. PET parameters constitute risk factors for consideration in the decision-making for AT in margin-negative stage IB and IIA NSCLC.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

In this study, TLR from FDG PET/CT was an independent prognostic factor in stage IB-IIA non-small cell cancer patients. Although additional validation studies are warranted, TLR has the potential to be used to determine the need for adjuvant therapy.

KEY POINTS

• High TLR is an independent poor prognostic factor in stage IB-IIA NSCLC. • Adjuvant treatment should be considered in patients with high TLR following complete tumor resection.

Effect of Adjuvant Chemotherapy on Survival of Patients With 8th Edition Stage IB Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

BACKGROUND

The efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with 8th edition stage IB (tumor size ≤4 cm) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) remains unclear.

METHODS

We identified 9757 eligible patients (non-chemotherapy group: n=8303; chemotherapy group: n=1454) between 2004 and 2016 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Log-rank test was used to compare overall survival (OS) between the chemotherapy and non-chemotherapy groups. Cox regression model was applied to investigate the independent prognosis factors of all surgically treated stage IB patients, and then the nomogram was constructed. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to reduce the confounding bias, and subgroup analyses of the matched cohort were also performed. Finally, we reviewed 184 patients with stage IB NSCLC from July 2008 to December 2016 in Jinling Hospital as a validation cohort, and compared disease-free survival (DFS) and OS between the two groups.

RESULTS

In the SEER database cohort, adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with improved OS in both unmatched and matched (1417 pairs) cohorts (all P <0.05). The survival benefit (both OS and DFS) was confirmed in the validation cohort (P <0.05). Multivariate analysis showed age, race, sex, marital status, histology, tumor location, tumor size, differentiation, surgical method, lymph nodes (LNs) examined, radiotherapy and chemotherapy were prognostic factors for resected stage IB NSCLC (all P <0.05). The concordance index and calibration curves demonstrated good prediction effect. Subgroup analyses showed patients with the following characteristics benefited from chemotherapy: old age, poor differentiation to undifferentiation, 0-15 LNs examined, visceral pleural invasion (VPI), lobectomy and no radiotherapy (all P <0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Adjuvant chemotherapy is associated with improved survival in 8th edition stage IB NSCLC patients, especially in those with old age, poorly differentiated to undifferentiated tumors, 0-15 LNs examined, VPI, lobotomy and no radiotherapy. Further prospective trials are needed to confirm these conclusions. Besides, the nomogram provides relatively accurate prediction for the prognosis of resected stage IB NSCLC patients.

Tumor Differentiation and EGFR Mutation Associated with Disease-Free Survival in Stage IA Lung Adenocarcinoma Patients with Curative Surgery

Background

Nearly 30% of stage IA non-small-cell lung cancer patients eventually die of recurrence or metastasis. This study aimed to predict stage IA lung adenocarcinoma (LADC) patients who underwent radical resection with a high risk of recurrence or metastasis.

Methods

Information on clinicopathological, genetic and therapeutic features and recurrence status was collected in this retrospective and two-center study. A nomogram based on multivariate analysis was established to predict disease-free survival. Further stratification was performed to identify populations with a high risk of relapse.

Results

A total of 1584 patients with pathological stage IA LADC who underwent radical surgery between 2011 and 2015 were enrolled from two medical institutions in this study. The nomogram including tumor differentiation and EGFR mutation had a higher C-index of 0.880 (95% CI 0.833–0.926) compared to 0.598 (95% CI 0.486–0.711) for the AJCC 8th TNM staging system. Furthermore, the C-index for the validation cohort was 0.798 (95% CI 0.738–0.857). In addition, the 3-year cumulative nonrecurrence rate in the high-risk group stratified by this model was 21.8% compared to 98.1% in the low-risk group.

Conclusion

This study proposed a new nomogram including tumor differentiation and EGFR mutation to predict recurrence or metastatic probability in stage IA LADC patients who underwent radical surgery. This nomogram could identify patients in the high-risk group and help guide adjuvant treatment in the future.

Nomograms for Predicting Overall and Recurrence-free Survival From Pathologic Stage IA and IB Lung Cancer After Lobectomy

BACKGROUND

Stage I non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is potentially curable with surgical resection. Significant proportions of patients may still experience recurrence and death despite undergoing curative surgery. This study describes predictive nomograms for recurrence-free (RFS) and overall survival (OS) after lobectomy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 301 patients with the American Joint Committee on Cancer pathologic stage IA and IB NSCLC who underwent open, thoracoscopic, or robotic lobectomy from January 2011 to April 2017 were analyzed. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to create nomograms for OS and RFS. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were calculated for OS and RFS comparing high-risk and low-risk cohorts based on nomogram scores.

RESULTS

Histology (hazard ratio [HR], 0.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.10-0.56; P = .002), lymphovascular invasion (HR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.29-0.74; P = .001), smoking status (HR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.25-9.55: P = .02), and total lymph nodes removed (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.10; P = .021) were significant predictors for OS in a multivariate model. Lymphovascular invasion (HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.36-0.83; P = .0040), smoking status (HR, 2.56; 95% CI, 1.16-5.62; P = .02), total lymph nodes removed (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.00-1.08; P = .029), and tumor size (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.30-1.68; P = .047) were significant predictors of RFS in a multivariate model.

CONCLUSION

Nomograms can predict OS and RFS for pathologic stage IA and IB NSCLC after lobectomy regardless of operative approach. The risk for death and recurrence after stratification by the nomogram scores may provide guidance regarding adjuvant therapy and surveillance.

ZIC2 promotes cancer stem cell traits via up-regulating OCT4 expression in lung adenocarcinoma cells

Background: Accumulating evidence has revealed the importance of cancer stem cells (CSCs) in self-renewal and chemoresistance. Previous studies reported high expression of ZIC2 was closely associated with tumorigenesis and CSC traits. However, the role of ZIC2 as a crucial factor for regulating CSC properties in lung adenocarcinoma (LAC) remains elusive. Methods: RT-PCR and WB assay were employed to assess ZIC2 expression in 20 LAC tumor tissues and the matched non-cancerous tissues. The role of ZIC2 in LAC CSC were analyzed by evaluation of CSC-related markers expression and spheroid formation in vitro. Cisplatin and paclitaxel resistance capacities were evaluated by CCK8 assay, colony formation assay, and flow cytometry analysis. Subcutaneous NOD/SCID mice models were generated to assess in vivo CSC features. Results: High expression of ZIC2 was found in LAC tumor tissues and indicated a poor overall survival in LAC patients. ZIC2 upregulated an array of CSCs-related genes, including EpCAM, OCT4, SOX2, NANOG, C-Myc and Bmi-1. Knockdown of ZIC2 inhibited sphere-forming capacity and decreased cisplatin and paclitaxel resistance. However, overexpression of ZIC2 achieved opposite effects. Mechanically, ZIC2 acts upstream of OCT4 to promote its expression, resulting in enhancement of CSC traits in LAC. Conclusion: Our results demonstrated that ZIC2 was crucial for promoting CSC traits in LAC cells, and served as a potential biomarker for predicting prognosis. The ZIC2-OCT4 network will facilitate the evaluation of the potential therapeutic efficacy of chemotherapy and predict patient sensitivity to treatment.

CT Radiomics Signature of Tumor and Peritumoral Lung Parenchyma to Predict Nonsmall Cell Lung Cancer Postsurgical Recurrence Risk

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

To estimate recurrence risk after surgery in nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients by employing tumoral and peritumoral radiomics analysis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

One-hundred twenty-four surgically treated stage IA-IIB NSCLC patients' data from 2008 to 2013 were retrospectively collected. Patient outcome was defined as local recurrence (LR), distant metastasis (DM), and (sum of LR and DM) total recurrence (TR) at follow-up. Volumetric region of interests (ROIs) were drawn for the tumor, peritumoral lung parenchyma (2 cm around the tumor) and involved lobe on CT images. Ninety-four (morphological, first-order, textural, fractal-based) radiomics features were extracted from the ROIs and datasets were created from single or combined ROIs. Predictive models were built with radiomics signature (RS) and clinicopathological data, and the area under the curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance. Radiomics score was calculated with the best models' feature coefficients, low- and high-risk groups of patients defined accordingly. Kaplan-Meier curves were built, and the log-rank test was used for comparison among low- and high-risk groups. Differences in recurrence risk among the two risk groups were calculated (chi-square test).

RESULTS

Fifty-six patients developed TR (25 LR, 31 DM). The tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage recurrence predictability (AUC_TR 0.680; AUC_DM 0.672; AUC_LR 0.580) was substantially improved when RS was added to the predictive model (AUC_TR 0.760; AUC_DM 0.759; AUC_LR 0.750). Seventy-five percent of high-risk patients developed TR. Recurrence risk of the high-risk group was 16-fold higher than that of the low-risk group (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Combination of the tumoral and peritumoral RS with TNM staging system outperformed TNM staging alone in individualized recurrence risk estimation of patients with surgically treated NSCLC.

Use of a prognostic risk score that aggregates the FDG-PET/CT SUVmax, tumor size, and histologic group for predicting the prognosis of pStage I lung adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

pStage I includes clinicopathologically diverse groups. This study aimed to identify the prognostic factors for pStage I lung adenocarcinoma.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 208 patients with pStage I adenocarcinomas who underwent curative resection in our institute between 2006 and 2013. The maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) on [F18]-fluoro-deoxy-D-glucose positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET/CT) was evaluated. Adenocarcinomas were categorized into the following histologic groups: group 0 (minimally invasive adenocarcinoma and lepidic predominant adenocarcinoma), group 1 (papillary predominant adenocarcinoma), and group 2 (acinar predominant adenocarcinoma and all the remaining subtypes). We assessed the relationship between disease-free survival (DFS) and clinicopathological factors.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis of DFS demonstrated that SUVmax > 3.0 (p < 0.001), total tumor size > 20 mm (p = 0.016), and histologic groups (p < 0.05) were independent prognostic factors. The prognostic risk score (PRS) was calculated using the following equation: PRS = SUVmax (≤ 3.0: 0 point, > 3.0: 2 points) + total tumor size (≤ 20 mm: 0 point, > 20 mm: 1 point) + histologic group (group 0: 0 point, group 1: 1 point, group 2: 2 points). Patients were divided into the following three risk groups: low-risk (PRS 0-2 points, n = 136), intermediate-risk (PRS 3-4 points, n = 49), and high-risk groups (PRS 5 points, n = 13). The 5-year DFS rates were 93.2%, 50.6%, and 30.8% for the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The PRS aggregating the FDG-PET/CT SUVmax, total tumor size, and histologic group predicts the prognosis of pStage I lung adenocarcinoma.

A nomogram to predict overall survival of patients with early stage non-small cell lung cancer

Background

Nomograms have been widely used for estimating cancer prognosis. The aim of this study was to construct a clinical nomogram that would well predict overall survival of early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients after surgery resection.

Methods

A total of 443 patients diagnosed with pathologic stage I and II NSCLC who had undergone curative resection without neoadjuvant chemotherapy or radiotherapy were recruited and analyzed. The log-rank test and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to select the most significant predictors in the final nomogram for predicting overall survival. Furthermore, the model was validated by bootstrap methods and measured by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots.

Results

Four independent predictors for overall survival were identified and included into the delineation of the nomogram (tumor differentiation, station of sampled lymph nodes, pathologic T and pathologic N). The model showed comparatively stable discrimination (bootstrap-corrected C-index =0.622, 95% CI: 0.572-0.672) and good calibration.

Conclusions

We successfully developed a nomogram incorporating available clinicopathological variables to predict overall survival of early stage NSCLC patients after surgery resection, which might help clinician select better appropriate treatment decisions.

Prognostic factors in stage IB non-small cell lung cancer according to the 8th edition of the TNM staging system after curative resection

Background

Patients with stage IB non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with poor prognostic factors can be treated selectively with postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy. The aim of this study was to identify the prognostic factors of stage IB NSCLC according to the new 8^th edition of the tumor, node, and metastasis (TNM) staging system.

Methods

From 2005 to 2016, 211 patients who were diagnosed with stage IB NSCLC according to the 8^th edition of the TNM staging system underwent anatomical pulmonary resection (lobectomy or bilobectomy). We analyzed the outcomes of patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy. The risk factors for prognosis after surgery were also analyzed for NSCLC stage IB.

Results

Differences between the 5-year recurrence-free-survival (RFS) rates (71.4% vs. 60.2%, P=0.173) and the 5-year disease-specific-survival (DSS) rates (88.0% vs. 81.4%, P=0.437) obtained by patients receiving surgical treatment only versus patients receiving both surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy, retrospectively, were not significant. Multivariate analysis was conducted to identify the risk factors for recurrence and cancer-related death. Lymphovascular invasion was an independent risk factor for both recurrence and cancer-related death [hazard ratio (HR) =2.045, P=0.020; HR =3.150, P=0.048, respectively).

Conclusions

Lymphovascular invasion was the only prognostic factor identified in patients with 8^th edition stage IB NSCLC. Adjuvant chemotherapy was not an effective treatment for patients with stage IB NSCLC. The efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy for stage IB patients with lymphovascular invasion should be evaluated in a future study.

Combining fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography and pathological risk factors to predict postoperative recurrence in stage I lung adenocarcinoma

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive value of qualitative assessment of tumor fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose (F-FDG) uptake on PET and pathological risk factors for postoperative tumor recurrence in patients with stage I lung adenocarcinoma.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Eighty-seven patients with stage I lung adenocarcinoma who had undergone F-FDG-PET and sequential surgical treatment without adjuvant chemotherapy were enrolled into this retrospective study. Qualitative assessment visually compared tumor F-FDG uptake with liver uptake. Tumors with one or more risk factors of tumor size of at least 4 cm, poorly differentiated, visceral pleural invasion, and lymphovascular invasion were defined as pathological high-risk tumors.

RESULTS

Patients with pathological high-risk tumors had a significantly (P=0.015) higher standardized uptake value. A multivariable Cox's proportional hazard analysis showed that tumor F-FDG uptake>liver uptake (adjusted hazard ratio: 3.54; 95% confidence interval: 1.36-9.21, P=0.010) and pathological high-risk tumors (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.34; 95% confidence interval: 1.13-4.87, P=0.023) were significant independent predictors of postoperative tumor recurrence. Patients with tumor F-FDG uptake>liver uptake and pathological high-risk tumors had significantly (P=0.001) worse 5-year disease-free survival (38.8%) and significantly (P=0.011) worse overall survival (68.5%).

CONCLUSION

Tumor F-FDG uptake>liver uptake and pathological high-risk tumors were significant independent predictors of postoperative tumor recurrence in stage I lung adenocarcinoma. Combining the two factors improves the prediction of disease-free and overall survivals, which could offer a feasible prediction model for clinically recommending adjuvant chemotherapy.

Adjuvant Chemotherapy Candidates in Stage I Lung Adenocarcinomas Following Complete Lobectomy

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to explore adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) candidates based on a recurrence risk-scoring model in completely lobectomized stage I patients with lung adenocarcinoma (LAD).

METHODS

A retrospective study was performed on 4606 patients (non-ACT group: n = 3514; ACT group: n = 1092) who underwent complete lobectomy for LAD at Shanghai Chest Hospital from 2008 to 2014. The nomogram predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS) was developed in the non-ACT group using Cox proportional hazards regression. The nomogram-based risk score was calculated in the entire cohort. Differences of RFS between the non-ACT and ACT groups were compared as stratified by the risk score. The score cut-off points were determined using the X-tile software.

RESULTS

Six independent predictors, including age, sex, tumor size, pathological subtype, visceral pleural invasion (VPI), and lymphovascular invasion (LVI) were associated with RFS. The nomogram more accurately predicted RFS than the 8th TNM staging {C-index: 0.784 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.756-0.812] vs. 0.719 (95% CI 0.689-0.749), p = 0.0017}. A significant RFS difference was observed among the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups (p < 0.0001), as divided by the optimal cut-points of risk score (203 and 244). ACT did not improve RFS for patients at intermediate-risk, or was even detrimental for low-risk patients; however, improved RFS was observed in ACT receivers at high-risk (p = 0.0416). ACT candidates with a risk score ≥ 245 constituted 2.6% of stage I patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram provided an individual prediction of RFS for stage I LAD following lobectomy. High-risk patients (score ≥ 245) may benefit from postoperative ACT.

Procedure-Specific Risk Prediction for Recurrence in Patients Undergoing Lobectomy or Sublobar Resection for Small (≤2 cm) Lung Adenocarcinoma: An International Cohort Analysis

INTRODUCTION

This work was performed to develop and validate procedure-specific risk prediction for recurrence following resection for early-stage lung adenocarcinoma (ADC) and investigate risk prediction utility in identifying patients who may benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT).

METHODS

In patients who underwent resection for small (≤2 cm) lung ADC (lobectomy, 557; sublobar resection, 352), an association between clinicopathologic variables and risk of recurrence was assessed by a competing risks approach. Procedure-specific risk prediction was developed based on multivariable regression for recurrence. External validation was conducted using cohorts (N = 708) from Japan, Taiwan, and Germany. The accuracy of risk prediction was measured using a concordance index. We applied the lobectomy risk prediction approach to a propensity score-matched cohort of patients with stage II-III disease (n = 316, after matching) with or without ACT and compared lung cancer-specific survival between groups among low- or high-risk scores.

RESULTS

Micropapillary pattern, solid pattern, lymphovascular invasion, and necrosis were involved in the risk prediction following lobectomy, and micropapillary pattern, spread through air spaces, lymphovascular invasion, and necrosis following sublobar resection. Both internal and external validation showed good discrimination (concordance index in lobectomy and sublobar resection: internal, 0.77 and 0.75, respectively; and external, 0.73 and 0.79, respectively). In the stage II-III propensity score-matched cohort, among high-risk patients, ACT significantly reduced the risk of lung cancer-specific death (subhazard ratio 0.43, p = 0.001), but not among low-risk patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Procedure-specific risk prediction for patients with resected small lung ADC can be used to better prognosticate and stratify patients for further interventions.

Nomograms for predicting disease progression in patients of Stage I non-small cell lung cancer treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy

Objective

Non-local progression is a major concern in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT). Herein we aimed to create a pre-treatment prognostic nomogram for patients with Stage I NSCLC receiving SBRT.

Methods

We retrospectively studied 182 eligible patients. Patients were randomly divided into a model (70%) group and a validation (30%) group. In the model group, thirteen parameters consisting of patient, treatment, and tumor factors were studied and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to identify independent predictors for survival outcome, based on which we developed clinical nomogram. The nomogram was externally validated in the validation group.

Results

Multivariate analysis showed that tumor size (P = 0.011) was the only factor correlated with 2-year overall survival, whereas 2-year locoregional control (LRC) was significantly related to tumor size (P = 0.024) and the maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) (P = 0.044), so does 2-year progression-free survival (PFS) (tumor size: P = 0.026; SUVmax: P = 0.038). Nomogram for 2-year LRC and 2-year PFS were created based on aforementioned results. The C-indexes for the nomograms to predict 2-year LRC and PFS were 0.816 and 0.804, respectively, in model group, and were 0.729 and 0.731, respectively, in the validation group. Calibration plots also showed that the model performed well.

Conclusions

Tumor of larger size and higher SUVmax predisposed patients to early onset of locoregional and distant progression. The nomogram developed in our study would be helpful in clinical decision-making and selection of patients who may benefit from more rigorous follow-up and aggressive systemic treatment plan.

Factors associated with distant recurrence following R0 lobectomy for pN0 lung adenocarcinoma

OBJECTIVE

We investigated factors associated with distant recurrence, disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) following R0 lobectomy for pathologic node-negative (pN0) lung adenocarcinoma.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database of patients with pT1-3N0M0 non-small cell lung cancer. Exclusion criteria included metachronous lung cancer, sublobar/incomplete resection, nonadenocarcinoma histology, and induction/adjuvant therapy. The primary outcome was distant recurrence; secondary outcomes were DFS and OS. Associations between variables and outcomes were assessed by Fine-Gray competing-risk regression for distant recurrence and Cox proportional hazard models for DFS and OS.

RESULTS

Of 2392 patients identified with pT1-3N0M0 lung adenocarcinoma, 893 met the inclusion criteria. Median follow-up was 35.0 months (range, 0.1-202 months). Thirteen percent of patients developed recurrence (n = 115), of which 86% (n = 99) were distant. The 5-year cumulative incidence of distant recurrence was 14% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11%-17%). On multivariable analysis, pT2a (hazard ratio [HR], 2.84; 95% CI, 1.56-5.16; P = .001) and pT2b/3 (HR, 6.53; 95% CI, 3.17-13.5; P < .001) tumors were associated with distant recurrence. Recent surgery was associated with decreased distant recurrence (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.20-0.91; P = .028), and lymphovascular invasion was strongly associated with distant recurrence (HR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.00-2.63; P = .05). DFS was independently associated with pT stage (P < .001) and lymphovascular invasion (P = .004).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients undergoing R0 lobectomy with pN0 lung adenocarcinoma, pT stage and lymphovascular invasion were associated with distant recurrence and decreased DFS. These observations support the inclusion of these patients in future clinical trials investigating adjuvant targeted and immunotherapies.

Development and validation of two prognostic nomograms for predicting survival in patients with non-small cell and small cell lung cancer

Purpose

This study aimed to construct two prognostic nomograms to predict survival in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) using a novel set of clinical parameters.

Patients and Methods

Two nomograms were developed, using a retrospective analysis of 5384 NSCLC and 647 SCLC patients seen during a 10-year period at Xiang Ya Affiliated Cancer Hospital (Changsha, China). The patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the prognostic factors needed to establish nomograms for the training cohort. The model was internally validated via bootstrap resampling and externally certified using the validation cohort. Predictive accuracy and discriminatory capability were estimated using concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and risk group stratification.

Results

The largest contributor to overall survival (OS) prognosis in the NSCLC nomogram was the therapeutic regimen and diagnostic method parameters, and in the SCLC nomogram was the therapeutic regimen and health insurance plan parameters. Calibration curves for the nomogram prediction and the actual observation were in optimal agreement for the 3-year OS and acceptable agreement for the 5-year OS in both training datasets. The C-index was higher for the NSCLC cohort nomogram than for the TNM staging system (0.67 vs. 0.64, P = 0.01) and higher for the SCLC nomogram than for the clinical staging system (limited vs. extensive) (0.60 vs. 0.53, P = 0.12).

Conclusion

Treatment regimen parameter made the largest contribution to OS prognosis in both nomograms, and these nomograms might provide clinicians and patients a simple tool that improves their ability to accurately estimate survival based on individual patient parameters rather than using an averaged predefined treatment regimen.

Histological features of malignancy correlate with growth patterns and patient outcome in lung adenocarcinoma

AIMS

Until the launch of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer/American Thoracic Society/European Respiratory Society adenocarcinoma classification in 2011, there were no uniform histological grading criteria for pulmonary adenocarcinomas. The current classification highlights the prognostic importance of the various histological growth patterns observed in these morphologically heterogeneous neoplasias. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the classic histological parameters of malignancy in correlation with the growth patterns and patient outcomes in a series of 112 surgically operated stage I-IV lung adenocarcinomas.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Architectural growth pattern analysis was performed according to the current adenocarcinoma classification. Histological features including, for example, nuclear atypia, mitotic activity, tumour necrosis, and different patterns of invasion were assessed and correlated statistically with the architecture and the clinical data. A solid predominant histology was associated with increased levels of atypia (P = 0.027), mitotic activity (P < 0.001), necrosis (P < 0.001), and lymphovascular invasion (P = 0.001), and a non-predominant solid pattern was associated with intra-alveolar tumour spread (P = 0.004). The presence of a non-predominant lepidic tumour component showed inverse correlations with atypia (P = 0.002), mitotic rate (P = 0.009), and tumour necrosis (P < 0.001). Tumour size (P < 0.001), mitotic activity (P = 0.019), tumour necrosis (P = 0.002), lymphovascular invasion (P = 0.001) and visceral pleural involvement (P = 0.001) were all associated with reduced disease-specific survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The classic histological features of malignancy correlate with tumour architecture and patient outcome, confirming the prognostic value of the growth pattern analysis and questioning the need for a parallel grading system in pulmonary adenocarcinoma.

Nomograms for predicting recurrence and survival of invasive pathological stage IA non-small cell lung cancer treated by video assisted thoracoscopic surgery lobectomy

BACKGROUND

A considerable portion of pathological stage (p-stage) IA non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients suffered from death and recurrence after video assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) lobectomy. The purpose of our study was to develop nomograms to predict which subgroup patients were more likely to suffer from recurrence or death.

METHODS

Data of invasive p-stage IA NSCLC patients who underwent VATS lobectomy at Peking University People's Hospital from September 2006 to April 2014 were analyzed. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to develop nomograms. The performance of the nomograms was evaluated by Harrell's concordance index (C-index), calibration plots and risk group stratification.

RESULTS

A total of 422 patients with NSCLC of invasive p-stage IA were included in the study. The median follow-up time was 40 months. Age [hazards ratio (HR) =1.067, 95% confidential interval (CI): 1.006-1.131], lymphovascular invasion (LVI) (HR=4.062, 95% CI: 1.278-12.912) and differentiation (HR =5.747, 95% CI: 2.151-15.353) were independent prognostic factors to predict overall survival (OS). Tumor diameter (HR =3.299, 95% CI: 1.814-6.001), LVI (HR =3.260, 95% CI: 1.221-8.708) and differentiation (HR =3.607, 95% CI: 1.776-7.327) were independent predictors of recurrence free survival (RFS). The nomogram for predicting OS demonstrated stronger discriminatory power than the 7th and 8th T stage systems (C-index: 0.894 for the nomogram, 0.700 for the 7th T stage and 0.742 for the 8th T stage). Likewise, the C-index of the nomogram for predicting RFS was higher than that of the 7th and 8th T stage systems (0.838 for the nomogram, 0.670 for the 7th T stage and 0.723 for the 8th T stage).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed nomograms that could predict individual accurate prognosis for invasive p-stage IA NSCLC patients after VATS lobectomy. Risk stratification by the nomograms might guide further adjuvant chemotherapy and follow-up.

Effect of Adjuvant Chemotherapy after Complete Resection for Pathologic Stage IB Lung Adenocarcinoma in High-Risk Patients as Defined by a New Recurrence Risk Scoring Model

Purpose

We conducted a retrospective analysis to determine if adjuvant chemotherapy prolongs overall survival in patients with pathologic stage IB lung adenocarcinoma who had undergone complete resection and were defined as high-risk by a newly developed recurrence risk scoring model.

Materials and Methods

Patients who underwent curative resection for stage IB lung adenocarcinoma were analyzed with a newly developed recurrence risk scoring model and divided into a low-risk group and a high-risk group. The patients in the high-risk group were retrospectively divided into two groups based on whether they underwent adjuvant chemotherapy or observation. Recurrence-free survival and overall survival were compared between these two groups.

Results

A total of 328 patients who underwent curative resection between 2000 and 2009 were included in this study, of whom 110 (34%) received adjuvant chemotherapy and 218 (67%) underwent observation without additional treatment. According to our risk model, 167 patients (51%) were high-risk and 161 (49%) were low-risk. The 5-year recurrence-free survival rates and overall survival were 84.4% and 91.5% in low-risk patients and 53.9% and 74.7% in high-risk patients (p < 0.001). In high-risk patients, the 5-year overall survival rates were 77% among patients who underwent observation and 87% among those who underwent adjuvant chemotherapy (p=0.019).

Conclusion

Adjuvant chemotherapy prolonged overall survival among high-risk patients who had undergone complete resection for stage IB lung adenocarcinoma.

Radiomics Signature: A Potential Biomarker for the Prediction of Disease-Free Survival in Early-Stage (I or II) Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose To develop a radiomics signature to estimate disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with early-stage (stage I-II) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and assess its incremental value to the traditional staging system and clinical-pathologic risk factors for individual DFS estimation. Materials and Methods Ethical approval by the institutional review board was obtained for this retrospective analysis, and the need to obtain informed consent was waived. This study consisted of 282 consecutive patients with stage IA-IIB NSCLC. A radiomics signature was generated by using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, or LASSO, Cox regression model. Association between the radiomics signature and DFS was explored. Further validation of the radiomics signature as an independent biomarker was performed by using multivariate Cox regression. A radiomics nomogram with the radiomics signature incorporated was constructed to demonstrate the incremental value of the radiomics signature to the traditional staging system and other clinical-pathologic risk factors for individualized DFS estimation, which was then assessed with respect to calibration, discrimination, reclassification, and clinical usefulness. Results The radiomics signature was significantly associated with DFS, independent of clinical-pathologic risk factors. Incorporating the radiomics signature into the radiomics-based nomogram resulted in better performance (P < .0001) for the estimation of DFS (C-index: 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71, 0.73) than with the clinical-pathologic nomogram (C-index: 0.691; 95% CI: 0.68, 0.70), as well as a better calibration and improved accuracy of the classification of survival outcomes (net reclassification improvement: 0.182; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.31; P = .02). Decision curve analysis demonstrated that in terms of clinical usefulness, the radiomics nomogram outperformed the traditional staging system and the clinical-pathologic nomogram. Conclusion The radiomics signature is an independent biomarker for the estimation of DFS in patients with early-stage NSCLC. Combination of the radiomics signature, traditional staging system, and other clinical-pathologic risk factors performed better for individualized DFS estimation in patients with early-stage NSCLC, which might enable a step forward precise medicine. ^© RSNA, 2016 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Preoperative CT Predicting Recurrence of Surgically Resected Adenocarcinoma of the Lung

Pathologic lymphovascular invasion (LVI) has been shown to be related to tumor recurrence in lung adenocarcinoma (ADC). We investigated preoperative computed tomography (CT) findings that may be related to pathologic LVI and recurrence of surgically managed stage I-II ADC of the lung.Consecutive patients (n = 275) with ADC from January 2013 to December 2013 were retrospectively enrolled. Two independent chest radiologists analyzed the CT findings. Clinical, CT (stage, margin, pleural tag, axial location, and peritumoral interstitial thickening), and pathologic findings (stage, % lepidic growth, and LVI) were reviewed. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) for patients with (n = 34) and without (n = 241) recurrence.The κ index for agreement on the CT findings between radiologists was 0.705 to 0.845. In univariate analysis, % lepidic growth (P = 0.006), LVI (P < 0.001), size (P < 0.001), and staging (P = 0.011) differentiated significantly between patients with and without recurrence. Long diameter (P < 0.001), mass type (P < 0.001), marginal lobulation (P = 0.020), central location (P < 0.001), and peritumoral interstitial thickening (P < 0.001) were significantly related to recurrence on CT. Peritumoral interstitial thickening was positively correlated with tumor size (P < 0.001), LVI (P < 0.001), N staging (P = 0.005), stage (P < 0.001), mass type (P < 0.001), and recurrence (P = 0.003). In multivariate analysis, size (HR, 1.052; 95% CI, 1.022-1.082; P < 0.001), central location (HR, 3.152; 1.387-7.166; P = 0.006), and LVI (HR, 2.153, 95% CI, 1.038-4.465; P = 0.039) were independent predictors of recurrence.Large, centrally located tumors with LVI tend to recur after surgery. Presence of peritumoral interstitial thickening on CT appears to predict pathologic LVI and recurrence.