Validation of Six Nomograms for Predicting Non-sentinel Lymph Node Metastases in a Dutch Breast Cancer Population

Effect of T Stages on the Choice of Axillary Evaluation Modality in Breast Cancer Patients With 1-2 Sentinel Lymph Node Metastases

INTRODUCTION

The survival benefit of axillary lymph node dissection (ALND), sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) combined with radiation, and ALND combined with radiation remains unclear in breast cancer (BC) patients with 1-2 metastatic sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs). This study aims to rigorously evaluate the prognostic impact of these axillary evaluation modalities on BC patients with varying T-stages and to construct a survival prediction nomogram.

METHODS

Following screening for inclusion and exclusion criteria, data pertaining to BC patients were extracted from the SEER database. Overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) were assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards model among patients with different stages who underwent various axillary evaluation modalities. A nomogram was constructed to predict the probability of OS and BCSS.

RESULTS

A total of 20,283 patients were included, comprising 9626 who underwent breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and 10,657 who underwent mastectomy. In the T4 stage stratified analysis, both BCS and mastectomy groups exhibited superior OS and BCSS with ALND compared to SLNB combined with radiation. Further, ALND combined with radiation improved OS. However, for T1-3 stages, patients treated with ALND experienced similar or worse survival compared to those treated with SLNB combined with radiation. The calibration curve and C-index (0.746-0.794) of the nomogram demonstrated the efficacy of the survival prediction model.

CONCLUSION

In T1-3 BC patients with 1-2 metastatic SLNs, SLNB combined with radiation is a safe alternative to ALND. Conversely, for T4 patients, ALND combined with radiation may offer a preferable choice.

Association between postoperative pathological results and non-sentinel nodal metastasis in breast cancer patients with sentinel lymph node-positive breast cancer

OBJECTIVE

For patients with 1-2 positive sentinel lymph nodes (SLN) identified by biopsy, the necessity of axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) remains a matter of debate. The primary aim of this study was to investigate the association between postoperative pathological factors and non-sentinel lymph node (NSLN) metastases in Chinese patients diagnosed with sentinel node-positive breast cancer.

METHODS

This research involved a total of 280 individuals with SLN-positive breast cancer. The relationship between postoperative pathological variables and non-sentinel lymph node metastases was scrutinized using univariate, multivariate, and stratified analysis.

RESULTS

Among the 280 patients with a complete count of SLN positives, 126 (45.0%) exhibited NSLN metastasis. Within this group, 45 cases (35.71%) had 1 SLN positive, while 81 cases (64.29%) demonstrated more than 1 SLN positive. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that HER2 expression status (OR 2.25, 95% CI 1.10-4.60, P = 0.0269), LVI (OR 6.08, 95% CI 3.31-11.14, P < 0.0001), and the number of positive SLNs (OR 4.17, 95% CI 2.35-7.42, P < 0.0001) were positively correlated with NSLNM.

CONCLUSION

In our investigation, the risk variables for NSLN metastasis included LVI, HER2 expression, and the quantity of positive sentinel lymph nodes. However, further validation is imperative, including this institution, distinct institutions, and diverse patient populations.

Can Axillary Lymph Node Dissection be Omitted in Breast Cancer Patients with Metastatic Sentinel Lymph Nodes Undergoing Mastectomy? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Real-World Evidence

BACKGROUND

The omission of axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) in patients with breast cancer who have metastatic sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs) undergoing mastectomy remains controversial. This meta-analysis explored the clinicopathological factors affecting the selection of ALND and the influences of ALND on survival outcomes in patients receiving mastectomy with positive SLNs.

METHODS

Eligible studies published prior to 31 December 2022 were selected by searching the Embase, Web of Science and PubMed databases. Pooled analyses were performed using the number of events for clinicopathological parameters and HRs with 95% CIs for survival outcomes including disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS) and locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRFS).

RESULTS

A total of 10 retrospective studies enrolling only breast cancer patients with limited SLN metastases (no more than 3 positive SLNs or micrometastatic SLNs) undergoing mastectomy were included. Performing ALND in mastectomy patients who had limited SLN metastases was significantly correlated with invasive ductal carcinomas, larger tumors, lymphovascular invasion, higher tumor grade, macrometastatic SLNs, more positive SLNs, extranodal extension, positive surgical margins, negative ER, administration of adjuvant chemotherapy and nonwhite race (P < 0.05). However, performing ALND did not result in significantly longer OS, DFS, LRFS or DRFS (P > 0.05) in these patients.

CONCLUSION

The present meta-analysis indicated that ALND may be safely avoided in patients with breast cancer who had limited SLN metastases undergoing mastectomy. Further well-designed randomized clinical trials are warranted to validate our results.

An improved nomogram including elastography for the prediction of non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 sentinel lymph node metastases

Background

The rate of breast-conserving surgery is very low in China, compared with that in developed countries; most breast cancer patients receive mastectomy. It is great important to explore the possibility of omitting axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) in early-stage breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 positive sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs) in China. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram based on elastography for the prediction of the risk of non-SLN (NSLN) metastasis in early-stage breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 positive SLNs.

Methods

A total of 601 breast cancer patients were initially recruited. According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 118 early-stage breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 positive SLNs were finally enrolled and were assigned to the training cohort (n=82) and the validation cohort (n=36), respectively. In the training cohort, the independent predictors were screened by logistic regression analysis and then were used to conducted the nomogram for the prediction of NSLN metastasis in early-stage breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 positive SLNs. The calibration curves, concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and Decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to verified the performance of the nomogram.

Results

The multivariable analysis showed that the enrolled patients with positive HER2 expression (OR=6.179, P=0.013), Ki67≥14% (OR=8.976, P=0.015), larger lesion size (OR=1.038, P=0.045), and higher Emean (OR=2.237, P=0.006) were observed to be the independent factors of NSLN metastasis. Based on the above four independent predictors, a nomogram was conducted to predict the risk of the NSLN metastasis in early-stage breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 positive SLNs. The nomogram showed good discrimination in the prediction of NSLN metastasis, with bias-corrected C-index of 0.855 (95% CI, 0.754-0.956) and 0.853 (95% CI, 0.724-0.983) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Furthermore, the AUC was 0.877 (95%CI: 0.776- 0.978) and 0.861 (95%CI: 0.732-0.991), respectively, indicating a good performance of the nomogram. The calibration curve suggested a satisfactory agreement between the predictive and actual risk in both the training (χ2 = 11.484, P=0.176, HL test) and validation (χ2 = 6.247, p = 0.620, HL test) cohorts, and the obvious clinical nets were revealed by DCA.

Conclusions

We conducted a satisfactory nomogram model to evaluate the risk of NSLN metastasis in early-stage breast cancer patients with 1 or 2 SLN metastases. This model could be considered as an ancillary tool to help such patients to be selectively exempted from ALND.

Non-sentinel node metastasis prediction during surgery in breast cancer patients with one to three positive sentinel node(s) following neoadjuvant chemotherapy

Our aim was to develop a tool to accurately predict the possibility of non-sentinel lymph node metastasis (NSLNM) during surgery so that a surgeon might decide the extent of further axillary lymph node dissection intraoperatively for patients with 1-3 positive sentinel lymph node(s) (SLN) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. After retrospective analysis of Asan Medical Center (AMC) database, we included 558 patients' records who were treated between 2005 and 2019. 13 factors were assessed for their utility to predict NSLNM with chi-square and logistic regression with a bootstrapped, backward elimination method. Based on the result of the univariate analysis for statistical significance, number of positive SLN(s), number of frozen nodes, Progesterone Receptor (PR) positivity, clinical N stage were selected for the multivariate analysis and were utilized to generate a nomogram for prediction of residual nodal disease. The resulting nomogram was tested for validation by using a patient group of more recent, different time window at AMC. We designed a nomogram to be predictive of the NSLNM which consisted of 4 components: number of SLN(s), number of frozen nodes, PR positivity, and clinical N stage before neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) value of this formula was 0.709 (95% CI, 0.658-0.761) for development set and 0.715 (95% CI, 0.634-0.796) for validation set, respectively. This newly created AMC nomogram may provide a useful information to a surgeon for intraoperative guidance to decide the extent of further axillary surgery.

A novel nomogram for decision-making assistance on exemption of axillary lymph node dissection in T1–2 breast cancer with only one sentinel lymph node metastasis

Background

T1–2 breast cancer patients with only one sentinel lymph node (SLN) metastasis have an extremely low non-SLN (NSLN) metastatic rate and are favorable for axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) exemption. This study aimed to construct a nomogram-based preoperative prediction model of NSLN metastasis for such patients, thereby assisting in preoperatively selecting proper surgical procedures.

Methods

A total of 729 T1–2 breast cancer patients with only one SLN metastasis undergoing sentinel lymph node biopsy and ALND were retrospectively selected from Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital between January 2013 and December 2020, followed by random assignment into training (n=467) and validation cohorts (n=262). A nomogram-based prediction model for NSLN metastasis risk was constructed by incorporating the independent predictors of NSLN metastasis identified from multivariate logistic regression analysis in the training cohort. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by the calibration curve and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Finally, decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to determine the clinical utility of the nomogram.

Results

Overall, 160 (21.9%) patients had NSLN metastases. Multivariate analysis in the training cohort revealed that the number of negative SLNs (OR: 0.98), location of primary tumor (OR: 2.34), tumor size (OR: 3.15), and lymph-vascular invasion (OR: 1.61) were independent predictors of NSLN metastasis. The incorporation of four independent predictors into a nomogram-based preoperative estimation of NSLN metastasis demonstrated a satisfactory discriminative capacity, with a C-index and area under the ROC curve of 0.740 and 0.689 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curve showed good agreement between actual and predicted NSLN metastasis risks. Finally, DCA revealed the clinical utility of the nomogram.

Conclusion

The nomogram showed a satisfactory discriminative capacity of NSLN metastasis risk in T1–2 breast cancer patients with only one SLN metastasis, and it could be used to preoperatively estimate NSLN metastasis risk, thereby facilitating in precise clinical decision-making on the selective exemption of ALND in such patients.

A novel robust nomogram based on preoperative hemoglobin and albumin levels and lymphocyte and platelet counts (HALP) for predicting lymph node metastasis of gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessment of lymph node status in gastric cancer (GC) patients can help to select appropriate treatment strategies for GC, but the diagnostic accuracy of conventional methods needs to be improved. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive value of preoperative hemoglobin and albumin levels and lymphocyte and platelet counts (HALP) on lymph node status in GC patients and to construct a risk prediction model.

METHODS

This study retrospectively analyzed the clinicopathological characteristics of 349 patients with GC who underwent radical gastrectomy, among which 250 patients were recruited in the training cohort and 99 patients in the independent validation cohort. Significant risk factors in univariate analysis were further identified as independent variables in multivariate logistic regression analysis, which were then incorporated and presented in a nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves were used to evaluate the discrimination, prediction accuracy and clinical effectiveness of the model.

RESULTS

Multifactorial logistic regression analysis showed that alcohol use (OR =2.203, P=0.036), Depth of invasion (OR =7.756, P<0.001), differentiation (OR =2.252, P=0.018), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) (OR =2.443, P=0.017), carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA199) (OR =2.715, P=0.008) and HALP (OR =2.276, P=0.032) were independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis (LNM) in GC. We used these factors to construct a nomogram for predicting LNM in GC patients, and the ROC curves showed good discrimination of the model with AUC values of 0.854 (training cohort) and 0.868 (validation cohort), respectively, and the calibration curves showed good predictive ability of the nomogram, in addition to the DCA curves results showed the clinical usefulness of the model.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, we established a nomogram for predicting LNM in patients with GC.

Development and validation of nomograms for predicting axillary non-SLN metastases in breast cancer patients with 1-2 positive sentinel lymph node macro-metastases: a retrospective analysis of two independent cohorts

BACKGROUND

It is reported that appropriately 50% of early breast cancer patients with 1-2 positive sentinel lymph node (SLN) micro-metastases could not benefit from axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) or breast-conserving surgery with whole breast irradiation. However, whether patients with 1-2 positive SLN macro-metastases could benefit from ALND remains unknown. The aim of our study was to develop and validate nomograms for assessing axillary non-SLN metastases in patients with 1-2 positive SLN macro-metastases, using their pathological features alone or in combination with STMs.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed pathological features and STMs of 1150 early breast cancer patients from two independent cohorts. Best subset regression was used for feature selection and signature building. The risk score of axillary non-SLN metastases was calculated for each patient as a linear combination of selected predictors that were weighted by their respective coefficients.

RESULTS

The pathology-based nomogram possessed a strong discrimination ability for axillary non-SLN metastases, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.727 (95% CI: 0.682-0.771) in the primary cohort and 0.722 (95% CI: 0.653-0.792) in the validation cohort. The addition of CA 15-3 and CEA can significantly improve the performance of pathology-based nomogram in the primary cohort (AUC: 0.773 (0.732-0.815) vs. 0.727 (0.682-0.771), P < 0.001) and validation cohort (AUC: (0.777 (0.713-0.840) vs. 0.722 (0.653-0.792), P < 0.001). Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomograms were clinically useful.

CONCLUSION

The nomograms based on pathological features can be used to identify axillary non-SLN metastases in breast cancer patients with 1-2 positive SLN. In addition, the combination of STMs and pathological features can identify patients with patients with axillary non-SLN metastases more accurately than pathological characteristics alone.

Development and validation of a nomogram for prediction of lymph node metastasis in early-stage breast cancer

Background

Lymph node status is an important factor in determining the prognosis of early-stage breast cancer. We endeavored to build and validate a simple nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients with early-stage breast cancer.

Methods

Patients with T1-2 and non-metastasis (M0) breast cancer registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were enrolled. All patients were divided into primary cohort and validation cohort in a 2:1 ratio. In order to assess risk factors for LNM, we performed univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression, and based on results of multivariable analysis, we built the predictive nomogram model. The C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration plots were applied to assess LNM model performance. Moreover, the nomogram efficiency was further validated through the validation cohort, part of which was from the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University database.

Results

Totally, 184,531 female breast cancer with T1-2 tumor size from SEER database and 1,222 patients from the Chinese institutional data were included. There were 123,019 patients in the primary cohort and 62,734 patients in validation cohort. The LNM nomogram was composed of seven features including age at diagnosis, race, primary site, histologic type, grade, tumor size and subtype. The model showed good discrimination, with a C-index of 0.720 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.717-0.723] and good calibration. Similar C-index was 0.718 (95% CI: 0.713-0.723) in validation cohort. Consistently, ROC curves presented good discrimination in the primary cohort [area under the curve (AUC) =0.720] and the validation set (AUC =0.718) for the LNM nomogram. Calibration curve of the nomogram demonstrated good agreement.

Conclusions

With the prediction of novel validated nomogram for women with early-stage breast cancer, doctors may distinguish patients with high possibility of LNM and devise individualize treatments.

Residual lymph node tumour burden following removal of a single axillary sentinel lymph with macrometastatic disease in women with screen-detected invasive breast cancer

Background

Women with screen-detected invasive breast cancer who have macrometastatic disease on axillary sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) are usually offered either surgical axillary node clearance (ANC) or axillary radiotherapy. These treatments can lead to significant complications for patients. The aim of this study was to identify a group of patients who may not require completion ANC.

Methods

Data from the NHS Breast Screening Programme between 1 April 2012 and 31 March 2017 were interrogated to identify women with invasive breast carcinoma and a single sentinel lymph node (SLN) with macrometastatic disease who subsequently proceeded to completion ANC. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to identify patients with a single positive SLN who had no further lymph node metastasis on ANC.

Results

Of the 2401 women included in the cohort, the presence of non-sentinel node disease was significantly affected by: the number of nodes obtained at SLNB (odds ratio (OR) 0.49 for retrieval of more than 1 node), invasive size of tumour (OR 1.63 for size greater than 20 mm), surgical treatment (OR 1.34 for mastectomy), human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER) 2 status (OR 0.71 for HER2 positivity), and patient age (OR 1.10 for age less than 50 years; OR 1.46 for age greater than 70 years). Patients aged less than 70 years, with tumour size smaller than 2 cm, more than one node retrieved on SLNB, and who had breast-conserving surgery had a lower chance of positive non-sentinel nodes on completion ANC compared with other patients.

Conclusion

This study, of a purely screen-detected breast cancer cohort, identified a subset of patients who may be spared completion ANC in the event of a single axillary SLN with macrometastasis.

Establishment of Decision Rules and Risk Assessment Model for Preoperative Prediction of Lymph Node Metastasis in Gastric Cancer

Background: Preoperative accurate prediction of lymph node status is especially important for the formulation of treatment plans for patients with gastric cancer (GC). The purpose of this study was to establish decision rules and a risk assessment model for lymph node metastasis (LNM) in GC using preoperative indicators. Methods: The clinical data of 554 patients who underwent gastrectomy with D2 lymphadenectomy were collected. A 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) system was used, and the clinical data of the matched 466 patients were further analyzed. The important risk factors for LNM were extracted by the random forest algorithm, and decision rules and nomogram models for LNM were constructed with a classification tree and the "rms" package of R software, respectively. Results: Tumor size (OR: 2.058; P = 0.000), computed tomography (CT) findings (OR: 1.969; P = 0.001), grade (OR: 0.479; P = 0.000), hemoglobin (Hb) (OR: 1.211; P = 0.005), CEA (OR: 1.111; P = 0.017), and CA19-9 (OR: 1.040; P = 0.033) were independent risk factors for LNM in GC. Tumor size did rank first in the ranking of important factors for LNM in GC and was the first-level segmentation of the two initial branches of the classification tree. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of the decision rules in diagnosing preoperative LNM in GC were 75.6, 85.7, 73.9, 73.5, and 79.3%, respectively. The accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the risk assessment model in predicting preoperative LNM in GC were 79.3, 80.3, and 79.4%, respectively. Conclusion: Tumor size was the most important factor for evaluating LNM in GC. This decision rules and nomogram model constructed to take into account tumor size, CT findings, grade, hemoglobin, CEA, and CA19-9 effectively predicted the incidence of LNM in preoperative GC.

A nomogram to predict non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in patients with initial cN+ breast cancer that downstages to cN0 after neoadjuvant chemotherapy

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

This study mainly explored the factors that influence non-sentinel lymph node (NSLN) metastasis in patients with breast cancer (BC) whose axillary lymph nodal status changed from clinically node positive (cN+) to clinically node negative (cN0) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC).

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the clinicopathological factors affecting NSLN metastasis in a total of 179 patients with cN+ BC downstaged to cN0 (120 in the training set and 59 in the validation set) who underwent both sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy and axillary lymph node dissection following NAC.

RESULTS

Among 179 patients enrolled, the overall NSLN metastatic rate was 24.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.7%-30.3%). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, the number of positive SLNs achieving a pathological complete remission of the breast and clinical node staging was independent predictors of NSLN metastasis. A nomogram was established based on these factors and displayed a good discriminatory capability, with an area under the curve of 0.919 (95% CI: 0.865-0.973) for the training set and 0.900 (95% CI: 0.812-0.988) for the validation set and its clinical utility was confirmed by the decision curve analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram established showed the ability to predict NSLN metastases in patients with initial cN+ BC that downstaged to cN0 after NAC.

Nomogram-based estimate of axillary nodal involvement in ACOSOG Z0011 (Alliance): validation and association with radiation protocol variations

PURPOSE

A substantial proportion of patients enrolled on ACOSOG Z0011 received protocol-deviant radiation treatment. It is currently unknown whether these deviations involved the use of more extensive fields in patients at higher nomogram-predicted risk.

METHODS

We used the M.D. Anderson (MDA) and Memorial Sloan-Kettering (MSK) nomograms to estimate risk of additional positive axillary nodes using surgical pathology information. In the control arm, we compared axillary dissection (AD) findings to nomogram-predicted estimates for validation. We used logistic regression to evaluate whether nomogram-estimated higher risk of nodal involvement was associated with high tangent (HT) or supraclavicular (SCV) radiation fields for patients with known radiation field design.

RESULTS

552/856 (64.5%) had complete details for the MDA nomogram. Mean MDA risk estimate in both treatment arms was 23.8%. Estimated risk for patients on the AD arm with positive nodes was 25.9%. Higher risk estimate was associated with additional positive nodes in the AD arm (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.06, p < 0.0001). We observed significant association with higher MDA nomogram-estimated risk and SCV radiation (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.04-1.10, p < 0.0001) but not HT (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.96-1.02, p = 0.52) The MSK nomogram had similar associations.

CONCLUSION

MDA and MSK nomogram risk estimates were associated with lymph node risk in ACOSOG Z0011. Radiation oncologists' use of differing radiation fields were associated with treating higher risk patients. ClinicalTrials.gov id: NCT00003854.

Development and validation of a nomogram for survival benefit of lymphadenectomy in resected gallbladder cancer

Background

Due to absence of large, prospective, randomized, clinical trial data, the potential survival benefit of lymphadenectomy with different number of regional lymph nodes (LNs) remains controversial. We aim to create a predicting model to help estimate individualized potential survival benefit of lymphadenectomy with more regional LNs for patients with resected gallbladder cancer (GBC).

Methods

Patients with resected GBC were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database who were diagnosed between 2004 and 2014. Covariates included age, race, sex, grade, histological stage, tumor sizes and receipt of non-primary surgery. Two types of multivariate survival regression models were constructed and compared. The best model performance was tested by the external validation data from our hospital.

Results

A total of 1,669 patients met the inclusion criteria for this study. The lognormal survival model showed the best performance and was tested by the external validation data, including 193 patients with resected GBC from our hospital. Nomograms, which based on the accelerated failure time parametric survival model, were built to estimate individualized survival. C-index, was up to 0.754 and 0.710 in internal validation for more and less regional LNs removed, respectively. Both of internal and external calibration curves showed good agreement between predicted and observed outcomes in the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival (OS).

Conclusions

A predicting model can be used as a decision model to predict which patients may obtain benefit from lymphadenectomy with more regional LNs.

Determinants for non-sentinel node metastases in primary invasive breast cancer: a population-based cohort study of 602 consecutive patients with sentinel node metastases

Background

Sentinel node biopsy (SNB) is the standard procedure for axillary staging in patients with clinically lymph node negative invasive breast cancer. Completion axillary lymph node dissection (c-ALND) may not be necessary for all patients as a significant number of patients have no further metastases in non-sentinel nodes (non-SN) and c-ALND may not improve survival. The first aim of our study is to identify clinicopathological determinants associated with non-SN metastases. The second aim is to determine the impact of the number of sentinel node (SN) with macro-metastases and the type of SN metastases on metastatic involvement in non-SN.

Methods

This is a retrospective study of 602 patients with primary invasive breast cancer operated on with SNB and c-ALND in Lund and Malmö during 2008–2013. All these patients had micro- and/or macro-metastases in SNs. Information was retrieved from the national Information Network for Cancer Care (INCA). The risk of metastases to non-SNs were analyzed in relation to clinicopathological determinants such as age, screening mammography, tumour size, tumour type, histological grade, estrogen status, progesterone status, HER2 status, multifocality and lymphovascular invasion. Additionally, we compared the association between the number of the SN and the type of metastases in SN with the risk of metastases to non-SNs. Binary logistic regression was used, yielding odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

We found that 211 patients (35%) had metastases in non-SNs and 391 patients (65%) had no metastases in non-SNs. Lobular type (18%) of breast cancer (1.73; 1.0 1-2.97) and multifocal (31.3%) tumours (2.20; 1.41–3.44) had a high risk of non-SNs metastases. As compared to only micro-metastases, the presence of macro-metastases in SNs was associated with a high risk of metastases to non-SNs (4.91; 3.01–8.05). The number of SN with macro-metastases, regardless of the number of SNs removed by surgery, increases the risk of finding non-SNs with metastases. The total number of SN removed by surgery had no impact on diagnosis of metastases in non-SNs. No statistically significant associations were observed regarding other studied determinants.

Conclusion

We conclude in the present study that lobular cancer and multifocal tumours were associated with a high risk of non-SN involvement. The presence of the macro-metastases in SNs and the number of SN with macro-metastases has a positive association with presence of metastases in non-SNs. The total number of SNs removed by surgery had no impact on finding metastases in non-SNs. These factors may be valuable considering whether or not to omit c-ALND.

A Nomogram for Prediction of Overall Survival in Patients with Node-negative Gallbladder Cancer

Background & Aims: According to the stage of tumor, it's hard suitable to predict the prognosis for gallbladder cancer, especially for node-negative gallbladder cancer. Therefore, we aimed to create a nomogram based on demographic and clinicopathologic characteristics to estimate individualized potential impacts on postoperative overall survival.

Methods: 789 patients with node-negative gallbladder cancer were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results and randomly divided into training and internal validation group. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis were used to identify prognostic factors. The nomogram was constructed using Cox proportional hazards models. We evaluated the performance of the nomogram with Harrell's concordance index and calibration curve. The nomogram was externally validated in 115 patients with node-negative gallbladder cancer from the Sir Run Run Shaw hospital.

Results: The nomogram for overall survival was built on the basis of five independent factors, such as age, sex, histology, T-stage, and number of examined lymph nodes. The C-index of nomogram for overall survival in the internal and external validation group was up to 0.724 and 0.716, respectively. Both of those calibration curves showed good agreement between predicted and observed outcomes in the 1-, 3-, 5-year overall survival. Compared to the 7th edition AJCC stage, the nomogram had a better difference in predicting overall survival, even could further classify patients into four risk subgroups in each stage.

Conclusion: This nomogram can be used as a decision model to predict the outcomes of postoperative overall survival for node-negative gallbladder cancer, and may give useful guidance to clinicians for next treatment.

Predicting non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in Australian breast cancer patients: are the nomograms still useful in the post-Z0011 era?

BACKGROUND

Axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) can be avoided in breast cancer patients with low-volume disease in the sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs) according to Z0011 trial. We believe that nomograms developed for predicting non-sentinel lymph node (NSLN) metastases can guide the axillary treatment in patients who do not fully match the criteria of Z0011 study. We identified risk factors and evaluated the performance of three nomograms to predict NSLN status in patients with positive SLNs.

METHODS

Data from 526 breast cancer patients with positive SLNs who underwent ALND at two Australian hospitals from 2002 to 2015 were studied. Univariate and multivariate associations for NSLN metastasis were analysed. Predictive models evaluated were MD Anderson Cancer Centre (MDA), Helsinki University Hospital and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Centre.

RESULTS

Thirty-nine per cent of patients demonstrated NSLN metastasis. The multivariate analysis identified extranodal extension (OR 3.2, 95% CI 2.07-4.80), tumour size >2 cm (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.66-3.89), macrometastasis (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.09-3.47), positive SLN ratio >0.5 (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.16-2.60) and lymphovascular invasion (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.09-2.44) as independent predictors for NSLN metastasis. MDA nomogram showed the best discrimination (area under the curve of 0.74) and a 9% false negative rate for predicted probability of NSLN metastasis ≤10%.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that presence of extranodal extension and tumour size >2 cm may influence the need of further axillary treatment. Conversely, ALND can be safety spared in low risk patients identified by MDA nomogram.

Sentinel lymph node B cells can predict disease-free survival in breast cancer patients

Tumor invasion into draining lymph nodes, especially sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs), is a key determinant of prognosis and treatment in breast cancer as part of the TNM staging system. Using multicolor histology and quantitative image analysis, we quantified immune cells within SLNs from a discovery cohort of 76 breast cancer patients. We found statistically more in situ CD3⁺ T cells in tumor negative vs. tumor positive nodes (mean of 8878 vs. 6704, respectively, p = 0.006), but no statistical difference in CD20⁺ B cells or CD1a⁺ dendritic cells. In univariate analysis, a reduced hazard was seen with a unit increase in log CD3 with HR 0.49 (95% CI 0.30–0.80) and log CD20 with HR 0.37 (95% CI 0.22–0.62). In multivariate analysis, log CD20 remained significant with HR 0.42 (95% CI 0.25–0.69). When restricted to SLN tumor negative patients, increased log CD20 was still associated with improved DFS (HR = 0.26, 95% CI 0.08–0.90). The CD20 results were validated in a separate cohort of 21 patients (n = 11 good outcome, n = 10 poor outcome) with SLN negative triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) (“good” mean of 7011 vs. “poor” mean of 4656, p = 0.002). Our study demonstrates that analysis of immune cells within SLNs, regardless of tumor invasion status, may provide additional prognostic information, and highlights B cells within SLNs as important in preventing future recurrence.

B cells within the tumor-draining lymph nodes may have an important biological role in preventing relapse of breast cancer. A team led by Peter Lee from City of Hope in Duarte, California, USA, quantified the levels of three populations of immune cells—T cells, B cells and dendritic cells—within sentinel lymph nodes biopsied from a cohort of 76 patients. They found that larger numbers of T cells and B cells were both linked to longer progression-free survival in the women. However, after statistically accounting for correlations between the two immune cell types, the researchers concluded that B cells had the dominant beneficial effect on survival times. They validated the finding that high B-cell counts are a prognostic indicator of better outcomes in a separate cohort of 21 women with triple-negative breast cancer.

Analysis of factors related to non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in 296 sentinel lymph node-positive Chinese breast cancer patients

Objective:

Axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) may be unnecessary in 20%–60% of breast cancer patients with sentinel lymph node (NSLN) metastasis. The aim of the present study was to review the medical records of Chinese patients with early-stage breast cancer and positive NSLN metastasis to identify clinicopathological characteristics as risk factors for non-NSLN metastasis.

Methods:

The medical records of 2008 early-stage breast cancer patients who received intraoperative sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) between 2006 and 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. These patients were clinically and radiologically lymph node-negative and had no prior history of receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy or endocrinotherapy. The clinicopathological characteristics of patients with positive NSLN metastasis who underwent ALND were investigated.

Results:

In the present study, 296 patients with positive NSLN metastases underwent ALND. Positive non-NSLN metastases were confirmed in 95 patients (32.1%). On univariate analysis, ≥ 3 positive NSLN metastases (P <0.01), NSLN macrometastases ( P = 0.023), and lymphovascular invasion (P = 0.04) were associated with non-NSLN metastasis (P <0.05). In multivariate analysis, the number of positive SLNs was the most significant predictor of non-SLN metastasis. For patients with 0, 1, 2, or 3 associated risk factors, the non-SLN metastatic rates were 11.5%, 22.5%, 35.2%, and 73.1%, respectively.

Conclusions:

The number of positive NSLNs, NSLN macrometastases, and lymphovascular invasion were correlated with non-SLN metastasis. The number of positive SLNs was an independent predictor for non-NSLN metastasis. When 2 or 3 risk factors were present in one patient, the probability of non-NSLN was higher than that in the American College of Surgeons Oncology Group Z0011 trial (27.3%); thus, avoiding ALND should be considered carefully.

Factors Influencing Non-sentinel Node Metastasis in Patients with Macrometastatic Sentinel Lymph Node Involvement and Validation of Three Commonly Used Nomograms

OBJECTIVE

Omitting axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) in a subgroup of patients with sentinel lymph node (SLN) metastasis is becoming a widely accepted practice. Avoiding the well-known complications of ALND is the sole aim without compromising the curative intention of surgery.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The data were probed for breast cancer patients that were operated on between February 2014 and June 2016. SLN biopsies were performed in 507 patients and out of 157 patients who underwent ALND for a metastatic SLN, 151 were found eligible for the analyses as having macrometastatic (>2mm) SLN. MD Anderson, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center and Helsinki nomograms were also tested in our patient population.

RESULTS

Pathologic tumor size greater than 2 cm, the ratio of metastatic SLN to dissected SLN, metastatic tumor greater than 1 cm and tumors that extended outside the SLN's capsule were found to be associated with non-sentinel node metastasis in both univariate and multivariate tests. MD Anderson nomogram performed well with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.72.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that ALND should be considered in patients with macrometastatic SLN greater than 10 mm in size, have extracapsular extension, have metastatic SLNs at a rate of more than 50% and whose primary tumor is greater than 2 cm.

Nomogram analysis and external validation to predict the risk of lymph node metastasis in gastric cancer

Aim

To identify risk factors for lymph node metastasis using a nomogram for gastric cancer patients to predict lymph node metastasis.

Results

The Chi-square test and the logistic regression showed that the Boarrmann type, preoperative CA199 level, T stage and N stage by CT scan were independent risk factors. The concordance index (C-index) was 0.786 in the internal validation of the Nomogram model. In the external validation, the C-index was 0.809, and the AUC was 0.894. The total accuracy of the prediction was 82.2%, and the false-negative rate was 5.4% with a cut-off value set at 0.109.

Materials and Methods

The study consisted of 451 patients with a histological diagnosis of gastric cancer with 0 or 1 lymph node metastasis from the Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center as the development set, and the validation set consisted of 186 gastric cancer patients from the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University. A Chi-square test and a logistic regression analysis were used to compare the clinicopathological variables and lymph node metastasis. The C-index and ROC curve were computed for comparisons of the nomogram's predictive ability.

Conclusions

We developed and validated a nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis in gastric cancer before surgery. This nomogram can be broadly applied, even in general hospitals, and is useful for decisions regarding treatment programs for patients.

Develop and validation a nomogram to predict the recurrent probability in patients with major salivary gland cancer

Objectives: Prediction of recurrent risk in patients with major salivary gland carcinoma (MSGC) after surgical treatment is an important but difficult task because of a broad spectrum of tumor histological subtypes and diverse clinical behaviors. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to predict the recurrent probability in patients with MSGC.

Methods: A total of 231 consecutive patients with MSGC received curative-intend surgery between 2002 and 2014 from one medical center were selected as the training set. Clinicopathologic variables with the most significant values in the multivariate Cox regression were selected to build into a nomogram to estimate the recurrence probability. An independent validation set of 139 patients treated at the same period from 3 other hospitals were selected for external validation and calibration.

Results: The nomogram was developed on six significant predictive factors, including the smoking history, tumor grade, perineural invasion, lymphatic invasion, pathologic T- and N-classification, of tumor recurrence retained in the multivariate Cox model. The nomogram had a highly predictive performance, with a bootstrapped corrected concordance index of 0.82 for the training set and 0.78 for the validation set. The nomogram showed good calibration in predict 2-year and 5-year recurrence probability both in the training and validation set.

Conclusions: We developed and externally validated an accurate nomogram for prediction the tumor recurrence probability of patients with MSGC after surgical treatment. This nomogram may be used to assist clinician and patient in elaborating the recurrent risk and making decision for appropriate adjuvant treatment.

Nomograms for preoperative prediction of axillary nodal status in breast cancer

Background

Axillary staging in patients with breast cancer and clinically node‐negative disease is performed by sentinel node biopsy (SLNB). The aim of this study was to integrate feasible preoperative variables into nomograms to guide clinicians in stratifying treatment options into no axillary staging for patients with non‐metastatic disease (N0), SLNB for those with one or two metastases, and axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) for patients with three or more metastases.

Methods

Patients presenting to Skåne University Hospital, Lund, with breast cancer were included in a prospectively maintained registry between January 2009 and December 2012. Those with a preoperative diagnosis of nodal metastases were excluded. Patients with data on hormone receptor status, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 and Ki‐67 expression were included to allow grouping into surrogate molecular subtypes. Based on logistic regression analyses, nomograms summarizing the strength of the associations between the predictors and each nodal status endpoint were developed. Predictive performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Bootstrap resampling was performed for internal validation.

Results

Of the 692 patients eligible for analysis, 248 were diagnosed with node‐positive disease. Molecular subtype, age, mode of detection, tumour size, multifocality and vascular invasion were identified as predictors of any nodal disease. Nomograms that included these predictors demonstrated good predictive abilities, and comparable performances in the internal validation; the area under the ROC curve was 0·74 for N0versus any lymph node metastasis, 0·70 for one or two involved nodes versusN0, and 0·81 for at least three nodes versus two or fewer metastatic nodes.

Conclusion

The nomograms presented facilitate preoperative decision‐making regarding the extent of axillary surgery.

Defines need for staging?

Prediction of nonsentinel lymph node metastasis in breast cancer patients with one or two positive sentinel lymph nodes

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between non sentinel lymph node metastasis (NSLNM) and clinicopathological factors, particularly in the case of sentinel lymph node (SLN) metastasis in one or two, in clinically node negative patients with breast cancer.

METHODS

Between 10/2010 and 10/2014, 350 sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) were performed in patients with histologically proven primary breast cancer in our clinic. The data collection includes the following characteristics: age, pathological tumor size, histological type, histological grade, lymphovascular invasion (LVI), number of positive SLN, size of the SLN metastasis (macrometastasis, micrometastasis, isolated tumor cells), multifocality (MF), extracapsuler invasion (ECI) of the SLN, the estrogen receptor (ER) status, the progesterone receptor (PR) status and the Her 2 receptor status, Ki 67 reseptor status. Data were collected retrospectively and then analyzed.

RESULTS

A successful SLN biopsy were performed in 345 (98.5%) cases. SLN metastases were detected in 110 (31.8%) cases. These patients then underwent axillary dissection; among these patients, 101 (91.8%) had only one to two positive SLNs. Of the 101 patients with positive SLN biopsies, 32 (31.6%) had metastases in the NSLNs. Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that lymphovascular invasion, extracapsular invasion (ECI), Her-2 receptor positive, and Ki-67 > 14% were related to NSLNM (p<.0.05).

CONCLUSION

The predicting factors of NSLNM were LVI, ECI, Ki-67 level, Her-2 reseptor positive and but should be further validated in our institutions, different institutions and different patient groups prospectively.

Over-irradiation

Decreasing the burden of radiation therapy (RT) for breast cancer includes, next to complete omission, several ways to tailor the extent of RT. Possible options for this include lowering of the total dose, such as selective omission of the boost, hypofractionated RT to shorten the duration of treatment, the selective introduction of partial breast irradiation and anatomy based target volume contouring to decrease the size of the irradiated volumes. Elective regional nodal irradiation showed in several randomised trials and meta-analyses to significantly impact on local-regional control, disease-free survival, breast cancer mortality and overall survival. The generalisability of these results remains complex in the light of the decreasing use of axillary lymph node dissection, the use of more effective adjuvant systemic therapy, the increasing use of primary systemic therapy and continuously improving RT techniques. In general, the use of RT compensates for the decreasing extent of surgery to the breast and the axillary lymph nodes, eliminating residual tumour cells while maintaining better aesthetic and functional results. In some occasions, however, the indications for the extent of RT have to be based on limited pathological staging information. Research is ongoing to individualise RT more on the basis of biological factors including gene expression profiles. When considering age, treatment decisions should rather be based on biological instead of formal age. The aim of this review article is to put current evidence into the right perspective, and to search for an appropriate appreciation of the balance between efficacy and side effects of local-regional RT.