A Surrogate Endpoint for Overall Survival in Locally Advanced and Resectable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Reanalysis of Data From the NEOCRTEC5010 Trial

PURPOSE

This study aimed to investigate disease-free survival (DFS) as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in patients with locally advanced and resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We re-analyzed patient data from the NEOCRTEC5010 randomized controlled trial (N = 451 patients) to compare their OS with that of an age- and sex-matched cohort from the general population of China. We used expected survival and the standardized mortality ratio, respectively, in our analysis of data collected from a neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy (NCRT) plus surgery group and a surgery-only group. Published data from 6 randomized controlled trials and 20 retrospective studies were used to examine the correlation between DFS and OS at the trial level.

RESULTS

The annual hazard rate of disease progression decreased to 4.9% and 8.1% within 3 years in the NCRT and surgery groups, respectively. Patients who were disease-free at 36 months had a 5-year OS of 93.9% (95% CI, 89.7%-98.4%) in the NCRT group with a standardized mortality ratio of 1.1 (95% CI, 0.7-1.8; P = .5639). In contrast, the 5-year OS was only 12.9% (95% CI, 7.3%-22.6%) for patients in the NCRT group who exhibited disease progression within 36 months. At the trial level, DFS and OS were correlated with treatment effect (R2 = 0.605).

CONCLUSIONS

Disease-free status at 36 months is a valid surrogate endpoint for 5-year OS in patients with locally advanced and resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Patients who were disease-free at 36 months showed a favorable OS, which was indistinguishable from that of the age- and sex-matched comparison group from the general population; otherwise, their 5-year OS was extremely poor.

A Novel Predictor of Pathologic Complete Response for Neoadjuvant Immunochemotherapy in Resectable Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Purpose

Neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy (nICT) for resectable locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (LA-ESCC) has attracted widespread attention recently, whose safety and clinical benefit was observed in clinical researches. This study aimed to develop and validate a novel predictor systemic inflammation-tumor markers index (SITI) to predict the pathological complete response (pCR) for resectable LA-ESCC patients receiving nICT.

Patients and Methods

A total of 147 LA-ESCC patients who underwent nICT followed by surgery from February 2020 to April 2022 were included in the study. The dynamic change of inflammatory indexes was compared at baseline, after two cycles of nICT and postoperative one month. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was performed to avoid collinearity and identify key indexes, with SITI constructed. After univariate and multivariate stepwise forward logistic analyses, a nomogram for pCR prediction was developed.

Results

41(27.9%) patients achieved pCR among 147 resectable LA-ESCC patients received nICT. Compared with baseline, most inflammatory indexes were significantly decreased at postoperative one month. 5 key indexes were identified and then a predictive index named SITI was constructed. The result showed that lower SITI and earlier clinical tumor node metastasis (cTNM) stage were more likely to achieve pCR. The nomogram for pCR prediction had excellent discrimination performance (C-index = 0.791).

Conclusion

The SITI is an independent predictor for pCR in resectable LA-ESCC patients received nICT. To our knowledge, our nomogram is the first model using systemic inflammation-tumor markers for pCR prediction and may be a promising predictor to effectively differentiate pCR for nICT in LA-ESCC patients.

Robustness assessment of clinical adaptive proton and photon radiotherapy for oesophageal cancer in the model-based approach

PURPOSE

In the Netherlands, oesophageal cancer (EC) patients are selected for intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) using the expected normal tissue complication probability reduction (ΔNTCP) when treating with IMPT compared to volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). In this study, we evaluate the robustness of the first EC patients treated with IMPT in our clinic in terms of target and organs-at-risk (OAR) dose with corresponding NTCP, as compared to VMAT.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

For 20 consecutive EC patients, clinical IMPT and VMAT plans were created on the average planning 4DCT. Both plans were robustly evaluated on weekly repeated 4DCTs and if target coverage degraded, replanning was performed. Target coverage was evaluated for complete treatment trajectories with and without replanning. The planned and accumulated mean lung dose (MLD) and mean heart dose (MHD) were additionally evaluated and translated into NTCP.

RESULTS

Replanning in the clinic was performed more often for IMPT (15x) than would have been needed for VMAT (8x) (p = 0.11). Both adaptive treatments would have resulted in adequate accumulated target dose coverage. Replanning in the first week of treatment had most clinical impact, as anatomical changes resulting in insufficient accumulated target coverage were already observed at this stage. No differences were found in MLD between the planned dose and the accumulated dose. Accumulated MHD differed from the planned dose (p < 0.001), but since these differences were similar for VMAT and IMPT (1.0 and 1.5 Gy, respectively), the ΔNTCP remained unchanged.

CONCLUSION

Following an adaptive clinical workflow, adequate target dose coverage and stable OAR doses with corresponding NTCPs was assured for both IMPT and VMAT.

Establishment of a prognostic nomogram for patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma incorporating clinical characteristics and dynamic changes in hematological and inflammatory markers

Background

This study aims to investigate the prognostic value of changes in hematological and inflammatory markers during induction chemotherapy (IC) and concurrent chemo-radiation (CCRT), thus construct nomograms to predict progression free survival (PFS) of patients with locally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LANPC).

Methods

130 patients were included in this prospective analysis. Univariate and multivariate cox regression analyses were conducted to identify prognostic factors. Three multivariate analyses integrating different groups of variables were conducted independently. Concordance indexes (c-index), calibration plots and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to evaluate the nomograms. Bootstrap validation was performed to determine the accuracy of the nomogram using 1000 resamples. The performances of proposed nomograms and TNM staging system were compared to validate the prognostic value of hematological and inflammatory markers.

Results

Pretreatment gross tumor volume of nodal disease (GTVn), Δe/bHGB (hemoglobin count at end of treatment/baseline hemoglobin count), and stage were selected as predictors for 3-year PFS in first multivariate analysis of clinical factors. The second multivariate analysis of clinical factors and all hematological variables demonstrated that ΔminLYM (minimum lymphocyte count during CCRT/lymphocyte count post-IC), pretreatment GTVn and stage were associated with 3-year PFS. Final multivariate analysis, incorporating all clinical factors, hematological variables and inflammatory markers, identified the following prognostic factors: pretreatment GTVn, stage, ΔmaxPLR (maximum platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) during CCRT/PLR post-IC), and ΔminPLT (minimum platelet count during CCRT/platelet count post-IC). Calibration plots showed agreement between the PFS predicted by the nomograms and actual PFS. Kaplan–Meier curves demonstrated that patients in the high-risk group had shorter PFS than those in the low-risk group (P ≤ 0.001). The c-indexes of the three nomograms for PFS were 0.742 (95% CI, 0.639-0.846), 0.766 (95% CI, 0.661-0.871) and 0.815 (95% CI,0.737-0.893) respectively, while c-index of current TNM staging system was 0.633 (95% CI, 0.531-0.736).

Conclusion

We developed and validated a nomogram for predicting PFS in patients with LANPC who received induction chemotherapy and concurrent chemo-radiation. Our study confirmed the prognostic value of dynamic changes in hematological and inflammatory markers. The proposed nomogram outperformed the current TNM staging system in predicting PFS, facilitating risk stratification and guiding individualized treatment plans.

Severe radiation-induced lymphopenia during postoperative radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy has poor prognosis in patients with stage IIB-III after radical esophagectomy: A post hoc analysis of a randomized controlled trial

Objective

To investigate whether radiation-induced lymphopenia (RIL) affects survival and identify the predictors of RIL in postoperative esophageal cancer.

Materials and methods

Post hoc analysis was conducted on data from 116 patients with esophageal cancer from a randomized controlled trial comparing adjuvant therapy with surgery alone. Doses of 54 Gy in 27 fractions was delivered in the postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) group and 50.4 Gy in 28 fractions combined with chemotherapy was delivered in postoperative concurrent chemoradiotherapy (POCRT) group. Blood counts were obtained before, during, and at first follow-up after treatment. Lymphopenia was graded per version 4.03 of the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events. Disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and compared between groups using the log-rank test. Receiver operating characteristic curves identified thresholds for preventing grade 4 (G4) lymphopenia.

Results

Median follow-up duration was 56.0 months. During treatment, 16 patients (13.8%) had G4 lymphopenia. All cases of G4 lymphopenia occurred in group PORT (30.2% vs 0.0%, p<0.001). Baseline absolute lymphocyte count was comparable between G1-3 and G4 patients (2.0 ± 0.8 *10⁹/L vs 1.7 ± 0.5 *10⁹/L; p=0.101). The 3-year DFS was significantly lower in group G4 lymphopenia than that in group G1-3 (31.3% vs 57.6%, p=0.036). The 3-year OS was comparable between both groups (50.0% vs 66.5%, p=0.095). Logistic regression analysis revealed that exposed more thoracic marrow (TM V20 ≥75%; TVB V20 ≥71%), heart (V15 ≥40%) and PTV (volume ≥507 ml) were associated with G4 lymphopenia (p<0.05).

Conclusions

G4 RIL had poor disease-free survival, which may be related to more dose exposure of thoracic marrow and heart due to larger PTV. Reasonably reducing the radiation field combined with concurrent chemotherapy, or radiation dose constraints for these normal tissues may be sufficient to decrease the incidence of G4 lymphopenia, but further prospective trials are needed to verify the results.

Clinical Trial Registration

clinicaltrials.gov, identifier NCT02279134

Severe Radiation-Induced Lymphopenia Affects the Outcomes of Esophageal Cancer: A Comprehensive Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Simple Summary

Radiotherapy is as an important part of esophageal cancer (EC) treatment. However, it often causes severe radiation-induced lymphopenia (RIL). The aim of the current study was to evaluate the influence of severe RIL on the outcomes of EC. A systematic review and meta-analysis including 17 studies was performed. Our meta-analysis found that severe RIL was associated with a lower pathologic complete response rate and inferior overall survival and progression-free survival of EC patients. The lymphocyte nadir was found during 4–6 weeks after the start of radiotherapy. A series of dosimetric factors and clinical factors associated with RIL were summarized. Our results provide important evidence for the clinical application of radiotherapy. Minimizing the dosimetric risk factors, especially in patients with clinical risk factors, might benefit their outcomes. Our results might also offer clues for the strategy of combining radiotherapy and immunotherapy in EC patients.

Abstract

The aim of the current study was to evaluate the influence of severe radiation-induced lymphopenia (RIL) on the outcomes of esophageal cancer (EC). A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed through the PRISMA guideline. Seventeen studies were included in the current systematic review, with eight included in the meta-analyses. Meta-analyses found that severe RIL was associated with lower pathologic complete response (pCR) rate (odds ratio (OR) = 0.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.30–0.66, I² = 0%), inferior overall survival (OS) (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.29–1.75, I² = 6%), and worse progression-free survival (PFS) (HR = 1.70, 95% CI = 1.39–2.07, I² = 0%) of EC patients. The lymphocyte nadir was found during 4–6 weeks after the start of radiotherapy. The leading dosimetric factors associated with severe RIL included larger PTV, higher dose to heart and body, and higher effective dose to the immune cells (EDIC). Clinical risk factors for RIL mainly comprised lower baseline ALC, higher tumor length and clinical stage, and distal EC. In conclusion, severe RIL might be associated with a lower pCR rate and worse OS and PFS of EC patients. Minimizing the dosimetric risk factors, especially in patients with clinical risk factors, might benefit their outcomes.

Impact of Platelets to Lymphocytes Ratio and Lymphocytes during Radical Concurrent Radiotherapy and Chemotherapy on Patients with Nonmetastatic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Purpose

This study examined the importance of hematological parameters as prognostic markers for people with esophageal cancer receiving radical concurrent chemoradiation.

Methods

106 patients with esophageal cancer are included in this study. Cox regression analysis, Kaplan-Meier method, and chi-square test were used to analyze our data.

Results

The median follow-up time for patients was 15.5 months (3-55). Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that age, the change of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (ΔPLR), and the change rate of circulating lymphocyte count (ΔCLC%) were independent influencing factors of OS and DFS. The patients were grouped according to the median of ΔPLR and ΔCLC%, and analysis showed that a higher ΔPLR and a higher ΔCLC% was related to poor OS and DFS (P < 0.001, P < 0.001 and P < 0.001, P < 0.001). By subgroup analysis, the OS of T1-4N1-2 were better in the low ΔPLR group than the high one (P = 0.03, P < 0.001, P = 0.001, P < 0.001, and P = 0.008). DFS of T3-4N1-2 in the low ΔPLR group were better than the high one (P < 0.001, P = 0.016 and P < 0.001, P = 0.022). For patients with T1-4N0-2, the OS in the low ΔCLC% group were better than in the high ΔCLC% group (P = 0.01, P < 0.001, P < 0.002, P = 0.012, P < 0.001, and P = 0.024). For T1-4N1-2, the DFS were better in the low ΔCLC% group than others (P = 0.042, P < 0.001, P < 0.001, P < 0.001, and P = 0.006).

Conclusion

ΔPLR and ΔCLC% are independent factors of OS and DFS, and a lower ΔPLR and ΔCLC% are associated with a better OS and DFS. And T3-4N1-2 patients in the low ΔPLR group and low ΔCLC% group have greater survival benefit.

Lymphopenia in Esophageal Cancer: What Have We Learned?

Lymphopenia caused by disease or treatment is frequent in patients with cancer, which seriously affects the prognosis of these patients. Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have garnered attention as one of the most promising strategies for the treatment of esophageal cancer (EC). The status of the immune system, such as, the lymphocyte count, is now considered to be an important biomarker for ICI treatments. Recognition of the significant impact of the lymphocyte count on the survival of patients with EC in the era of immunotherapy has revived interest in understanding the causes of lymphopenia and in developing strategies to predict, prevent and eliminate the adverse effect of lymphopenia. Here, we review what we have learned about lymphopenia in EC, including the prognostic and predictive value of lymphopenia in patients with EC, the predictors of lymphopenia, and the strategies to ameliorate the effect of lymphopenia in patients with EC.

Docetaxel and nedaplatin twice a week with concurrent definitive radiotherapy in inoperable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: A phase I trial (GASTO-1021)

PURPOSE

This phase I trial aimed to determine the maximal tolerated dose (MTD) of incorporating a twice-weekly docetaxel and nedaplatin regimen into definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) as radiosensitizers in patients with inoperable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

METHODS

The CCRT regimen included docetaxel (5 mg/m², 10 mg/m², or 15 mg/m²) and nedaplatin (5 mg/m², 10 mg/m², or 15 mg/m²) twice-weekly based on the traditional 3 + 3 dose escalation strategy, and radiotherapy (64 Gy in 32 fractions). The primary goals were to determine the MTD of concurrent chemotherapy and the dose limiting toxicities (DLTs). In-field objective response rate (ORR) was investigated.

RESULTS

Fifteen patients had been recruited and analyzed. DLT involving persistent grade 3 esophagitis over 1 week was observed in all three patients (3/3) at dose level 3 (15 mg/m²), and two patients (2/6) experienced DLTs in the dose level 2 (10 mg/m²) due to esophageal fistula and persistent grade 3 esophagitis over 1 week, while one patient (1/6) treated at dose level 1 (5 mg/m²) exhibited DLT owing to Grade 3 increased liver enzymes, suggesting a MTD of 5 mg/m². The in-filed ORR was both 100% in all patients and those receiving MTD. The 1-year loco-regional recurrence-free survival rate was 83.3%, 83.3% and 66.7% in dose level 1, 2, and 3, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The MTD of twice-weekly docetaxel and nedaplatin regimen was 5 mg/m² in inoperable ESCC patients treated with definitive CCRT. Low dose concurrent docetaxel and nedaplatin showed promising radiosensitizing effect on in-filed disease control and good tolerability.

Lymphopenia During Definitive Chemoradiotherapy in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Association with Dosimetric Parameters and Patient Outcomes

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between clinical characteristics, as well as dosimetric parameters, and the risk of treatment-related lymphopenia in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy (CRT).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Clinical characteristics and dosimetric parameters were collected from 436 patients with ESCC who received definitive CRT from 2010 through 2017. Absolute lymphocyte counts (ALCs) were obtained before, during, and 1 month after CRT. Grade 4 (G4) lymphopenia was defined as ALC <0.2 × 10⁹ /L during CRT. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the effect of each factor on predicting G4 lymphopenia. The relationship between lymphopenia and overall survival (OS) was examined, and a nomogram was developed to predict OS.

RESULTS

G4 lymphopenia was observed in 103 patients (23.6%) during CRT. Multivariate analysis indicated that planning target volume (PTV), lung V₁₀ , heart V₁₀ , performance status, and pretreatment lymphopenia were significant risk factors for G4 lymphopenia. Patients with G4 lymphopenia had significantly worse survival than those without. Based on multivariate analysis, clinical TNM stage, radiotherapy modality, pretreatment ALC, and G4 lymphopenia were predictive of OS and were incorporated into the nomogram, yielding a concordance index of 0.71.

CONCLUSIONS

G4 lymphopenia during definitive CRT was associated with larger PTVs, higher lung V₁₀ and heart V₁₀ , and worse survival.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between clinical characteristics, as well as dosimetric parameters, and the risk of treatment-related lymphopenia in 436 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who received definitive chemoradiotherapy. Grade 4 (G4) lymphopenia was observed in 23.6% of patients during radiotherapy. G4 lymphopenia was associated with larger planning target volumes, higher lung V₁₀ and heart V₁₀ , and worse survival. Then, a nomogram was built based on multivariate analysis, yielding excellent performance to predict overall survival. Prospective studies are needed to investigate potential approaches for mitigating severe lymphopenia, which may ultimately convert into survival benefits.

Prediction of Pathologic Response to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Patients with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Incorporating Hematological Biomarkers

PURPOSE

This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) by integrating hematological biomarkers and clinicopathological characteristics.

Materials and Methods

Between 2003 and 2017, 306 ESCC patients who underwent neoadjuvant CRT followed by esophagectomy were analyzed. Besides clinicopathological factors, hematological parameters before, during, and after CRT were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictive factors for pCR. A nomogram model was built and internally validated.

RESULTS

Absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), lymphocyte to monocyte ratio, albumin, hemoglobin, white blood cell, neutrophil, and platelet count generally declined, whereas neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) increased significantly following neoadjuvant CRT. After surgery, 124 patients (40.5%) achieved a pCR. The pCR group demonstrated significantly more favorable survival than the non-pCR group. On multivariate analysis, significant factors associated with pCR included sex, chemotherapy regimen, post-CRT endoscopic finding, pre-CRT NLR, ALC nadir during CRT, and post-CRT PLR, which were incorporated into the prediction model. The nomogram indicated good accuracy in predicting pCR, with a C-index of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.71 to 0.78).

CONCLUSION

Female, chemotherapy regimen of cisplatin/vinorelbine, negative post-CRT endoscopic finding, pre-CRT NLR (≤ 2.1), ALC nadir during CRT (> 0.35 ×109/L), and post-CRT PLR (≤ 83.0) were significantly associated with pCR in ESCC patients treated with neoadjuvant CRT. A nomogram incorporating hematological biomarkers to predict pCR was developed and internally validated, showing good predictive performance.

Systemic inflammatory dynamics during chemoradiotherapy predict response, relapse, metastasis, and survival in esophageal carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Lymphopenia associated with chemoradiotherapy predicts prognosis in esophageal carcinoma. The purpose of our study was to evaluate alterations in hematologic measures of inflammation during chemoradiation.

METHODS

We performed an observational study evaluating adults treated with chemoradiation in the neoadjuvant or definitive setting for stage II-III esophageal carcinoma. Multivariable logistic regression evaluated predictors of pathologic response. Survival was analyzed by time-varying multivariable Cox proportional hazards regressions.

RESULTS

A total of 94 patients were included with median follow-up of 1.6 years. Elevated neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was predictive of incomplete pathologic response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation (OR, 1.07; P = .0030) as well as shorter distant metastasis-free survival (HR, 1.01; P = .0369) and reduced overall survival (HR, 1.01; P = .0448). An NLR > 5.55 in week two of chemoradiation predicted shorter overall survival (P = .0070). Upon adjusted analysis, NLR was independently associated with reduced probability of complete pathologic response (OR, 0.80; P = .0291), as well as poor histologic response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation (OR, 1.05; P = .0303), shorter disease-free survival (HR, 1.02; P = .0077), and reduced overall survival (HR, 1.02; P = .0070).

CONCLUSIONS

Dynamic time-dependent changes in NLR during chemoradiation predict response, relapse, metastasis, and survival in esophageal carcinoma. Prospective validation is warranted.