Predicting short-term mortality in advanced decompensated heart failure - role of the updated acute decompensated heart failure/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic Peptide risk score

Risk Factors for All-Cause Mortality in Patients Diagnosed with Advanced Heart Failure: A Scoping Review

Introduction: Identifying the evolving needs of patients with advanced heart failure (AdHF) and triaging those at high risk of death can facilitate timely referrals to palliative care and advance patient-centered individualized care. There are limited models specific for patients with end-stage HF. We aim to identify risk factors associated with up to three-year all-cause mortality (ACM) and describe prognostic models developed or validated in AdHF populations. Methods: Frameworks proposed by Arksey, O'Malley, and Levac were adopted for this scoping review. We searched the Medline, EMBASE, PubMed, CINAHL, Cochrane library, Web of Science and gray literature databases for articles published between January 2010 and September 2020. Primary studies that included adults aged ≥ 18 years, diagnosed with AdHF defined as New York Heart Association class III/IV, American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology Stage D, end-stage HF, and assessed for risk factors associated with up to three-year ACM using multivariate analysis were included. Studies were appraised using the Quality of Prognostic Studies tool. Data were analyzed using a narrative synthesis approach. Results: We reviewed 167 risk factors that were associated with up to three-year ACM and prognostic models specific to AdHF patients across 65 articles with low-to-moderate bias. Studies were mostly based in Western and/or European cohorts (n = 60), in the acute care setting (n = 56), and derived from clinical trials (n = 40). Risk factors were grouped into six domains. Variables related to cardiovascular and overall health were frequently assessed. Ten prognostic models developed/validated on AdHF patients displayed acceptable model performance [area under the curve (AUC) range: 0.71-0.81]. Among the ten models, the model for end-stage-liver disease (MELD-XI) and acute decompensated HF with N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (ADHF/proBNP) model attained the highest discriminatory performance against short-term ACM (AUC: 0.81). Conclusions: To enable timely referrals to palliative care interventions, further research is required to develop or validate prognostic models that consider the evolving landscape of AdHF management.

Outcomes Associated with Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitor Use in Acute Heart Failure Hospitalizations Complicated by AKI

Key Points

In a multicenter retrospective cohort study of adults hospitalized with acute heart failure, exposure to sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor during AKI was associated with lower risk of 30-day mortality. Exposure to sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor during acute heart failure–associated AKI was associated with no difference in time to renal recovery. The findings were reproducible in inverse probability-weighted analysis.

Background

Although sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT2i) use during acute heart failure (AHF) hospitalizations is associated with symptomatic improvement, reduction in rehospitalizations, and mortality, these medications are often withheld during AKI because of concerns about worsening GFR. We aimed to investigate the safety of SGLT2i exposure during AKI among patients hospitalized with AHF. We hypothesized that SGLT2i exposure would not worsen mortality but may prolong return of creatinine to baseline.

Methods

This was a retrospective study of adults hospitalized across five Yale New Haven Health System hospitals between January 2020 and May 2022 with AHF complicated by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes–defined AKI. Patients with stage 5 CKD and those with potential contraindications to SGLT2i were excluded. We tested the association of SGLT2i use with kidney function recovery at 14 days and death at 30 days using time-varying, multivariable Cox-regression analyses.

Results

Of 3305 individuals hospitalized with AHF and AKI, 356 received SGLT2i after AKI diagnosis either as initiation or continuation. The rate of renal recovery was not significantly different among those exposed and unexposed to SGLT2i after AKI (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.79 to 1.11; P = 0.46). SGLT2i exposure was associated with lower risk of 30-day mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.45; 95% confidence interval, 0.23 to 0.87; P = 0.02). Sensitivity analyses using an inverse probability-weighted time-varying Cox regression analysis and using alternate definitions of AHF with different NT-proBNP cutoffs yielded similar results. Rates of renal recovery were similar between the exposed and unexposed cohorts regardless of the proximity of SGLT2i exposure to AKI diagnosis.

Conclusion

In adults experiencing AHF-associated AKI, exposure to SGLT2i was associated with decreased mortality and no delay in renal recovery. Prospective studies are needed to elucidate the effect of SGLT2i exposure during AKI, particularly during heart failure hospitalizations.

Prognostic risk scores for patients with heart failure

Heart failure has many causes. Although new drugs, devices and technologies are available, the survival rate and prognosis of patients with heart failure remain poor, placing a significant burden on individuals and society. Attempts to improve outcomes for patients with heart failure include developing prognostic risk scores. With medical advances, however, previous heart failure risk scores are not fully applicable to current practice, particularly because of the classification as heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction, and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. This article describes the use of risk prediction scores for heart failure patients with different clinical status and discusses their clinical applicability.

Risk scores did not reliably predict individual risk of mortality for patients with decompensated heart failure

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the performance of four prognostic tools in predicting 180-day mortality for patients admitted for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) over a range of risk thresholds, in addition to discrimination and calibration.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We studied 1,458 patients. The risk assessment was performed using the Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry (ADHERE) model and the Get With The Guidelines (GWTG), ADHF/NT-proBNP, and Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide in Decompensated Heart Failure (ASCEND) risk scores.

RESULTS

C-statistics ranged from 0.727 for the ADHERE model to 0.767 for the ADHF/NT-proBNP score. The ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score, the ADHERE model, and the ASCEND risk score, but not the GWTG risk score, were also well calibrated. Sensitivity and PPV were modest at the >30% risk threshold and ranged from 55% for the ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score to 38.8% for the ADHERE model and from 46.7% for the ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score to 42.1% for the ASCEND risk score, respectively. There was a modest agreement between the risk scores in classifying the patients across risk strata or in classifying those who died as being at >30% risk of death.

CONCLUSION

Although risk assessment tools work well for stratifying patients, their use in estimating the risk of mortality for individuals has limited clinical utility.

Relationship between Hypoalbuminemia on Admission and Long-term Mortality in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

Objective Although several studies have reported the relationship between hypoalbuminemia and the clinical outcome, it remains disputable in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). We therefore investigated the relationship between hypoalbuminemia on admission and long-term mortality in hospitalized patients following ADHF. Methods We examined a cohort of 751 consecutive patients who were admitted to the cardiac intensive-care unit between 2007 and 2011 with a diagnosis of ADHF. These patients were divided into 2 groups according to the presence or absence of hypoalbuminemia on admission, which was defined as a serum albumin ≤3.4 g/dL. A propensity score (PS) was calculated to evaluate the effects of variables related to the presence or absence of hypoalbuminemia. The association between hypoalbuminemia and mortality was assessed using two Cox regression models-namely, conventional adjustment and matching patients with and without hypoalbuminemia using the PS. Results Among the pre-match patients (n=551), 311 (56%) were classified as exhibiting hypoalbuminemia on admission. There were 152 deaths (27.5%), and the median follow-up was 1.9 years. The presence of hypoalbuminemia on admission tended to be associated with increased mortality in the unadjusted model [hazard ratio (HR) 1.32, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.95-1.84; p=0.098] but not in the conventional adjusted model (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.64-1.52; p=0.938). Even in post-match patients, no association between hypoalbuminemia and mortality was observed (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.68-1.76; p=0.722). Conclusion Hypoalbuminemia on admission was not associated with long-term mortality in patients with ADHF, even if PS matching was used.

Improving risk stratification in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction by combining two validated risk scores

Introduction

The Intermountain Risk Score (IMRS) was developed and validated to predict short-term and long-term mortality in hospitalised patients using demographics and commonly available laboratory data. In this study, we sought to determine whether the IMRS also predicts all-cause mortality in patients hospitalised with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and whether it is complementary to the Get with the Guidelines Heart Failure (GWTG-HF) risk score or N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP).

Methods and results

We used the Stanford Translational Research Integrated Database Environment to identify 3847 adult patients with a diagnosis of HFpEF between January 1998 and December 2016. Of these, 580 were hospitalised with a primary diagnosis of acute HFpEF. Mean age was 76±16 years, the majority being female (58%), with a high prevalence of diabetes mellitus (36%) and a history of coronary artery disease (60%). Over a median follow-up of 2.0 years, 140 (24%) patients died. On multivariable analysis, the IMRS and GWTG-HF risk score were independently associated with all-cause mortality (standardised HRs IMRS (1.55 (95% CI 1.27 to 1.93)); GWTG-HF (1.60 (95% CI 1.27 to 2.01))). Combining the two scores, improved the net reclassification over GWTG-HF alone by 36.2%. In patients with available NT-proBNP (n=341), NT-proBNP improved the net reclassification of each score by 46.2% (IMRS) and 36.3% (GWTG-HF).

Conclusion

IMRS and GWTG-HF risk scores, along with NT-proBNP, play a complementary role in predicting outcome in patients hospitalised with HFpEF.

Relationship Between Serum Sodium Level Within the Low-Normal Range on Admission and Long-Term Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

Although hyponatremia during hospitalization for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) is reportedly related with poor prognosis, the available data regarding the impact of serum sodium level within the low-normal range at admission on clinical events in patients with ADHF is limited.We studied eligible patients admitted to our institution in 2007-2011. All the patients were categorized into 3 groups according to the admission serum sodium levels of < 135 mmol/L (hyponatremia), ≥ 135 and < 140 mmol/L (low-normal range), or ≥ 140 mmol/L (normal range). The association between admission serum sodium levels and long-term clinical events, a composite of all-cause deaths and re-hospitalizations for ADHF, was assessed by multivariable Cox proportional analysis.Of the 584 eligible patients, 208 (35.6%) were in the low-normal range and 99 (16.9%) had hyponatremia on admission. On multivariable analysis, compared with those with a sodium level ≥ 140 mmol/L, patients with hyponatremia were at increased risk for clinical events (hazard ratio [HR], 1.53; P = 0.041), whereas the HR of those in the low-normal range was attenuated and insignificant (HR, 1.08; P = 0.625). However, the HR of each category increased significantly as sodium level decreased (P value for HR trend, 0.024). In addition, when serum sodium level was treated as a continuous variable, the lower the serum sodium level, the greater the risk of clinical events (P = 0.012). The cut-off value of serum sodium level to predict mortality was < 138 mmol/L.In conclusion, a low serum sodium level on admission for ADHF, even if low-normal, can increase the risk of long-term mortality and/or re-hospitalization for ADHF.

Application of competing risks analysis improved prognostic assessment of patients with decompensated chronic heart failure and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction

OBJECTIVE

The Kaplan-Meier method may overestimate absolute mortality risk (AMR) in the presence of competing risks. Urgent heart transplantation (UHT) and ventricular assist device implantation (VADi) are important competing events in heart failure. We sought to quantify the extent of bias of the Kaplan-Meier method in estimating AMR in the presence of competing events and to analyze the effect of covariates on the hazard for death and competing events in the clinical model of decompensated chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (DCHFrEF).

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We studied 683 patients. We used the cumulative incidence function (CIF) to estimate the AMR at 1 year. CIF estimate was compared with the Kaplan-Meier estimate. The Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard analysis was used to assess the effect of covariates on the hazard for death and UHT/VADi.

RESULTS

The Kaplan-Meier estimate of the AMR was 0.272, whereas the CIF estimate was 0.246. The difference was more pronounced in the patient subgroup with advanced DCHF (0.424 vs. 0.338). The Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard analysis revealed that established risk markers have qualitatively different effects on the incidence of death or UHT/VADi.

CONCLUSION

Competing risks analysis allows more accurately estimating AMR and better understanding the association between covariates and major outcomes in DCHFrEF.

Relationship between blood urea nitrogen-to-creatinine ratio at hospital admission and long-term mortality in patients with acute decompensated heart failure

Although elevated blood urea nitrogen (BUN)-to-creatinine (BUN/Cr) ratio at hospital admission has been reported to be associated with poor short-term prognosis, its association to long-term mortality in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) remains to be elucidated. Moreover, an additive prognostic value to preexisting renal markers including creatinine and BUN has not been well described. A cohort of 557 consecutive ADHF patients admitted to the cardiac intensive care unit was studied. All cohorts were divided into high and low BUN/Cr ratios according to the median value of BUN/Cr ratio at admission. Association between admission BUN/Cr ratio and long-term all-cause mortality was assessed. There were 145 deaths (27%) observed during the follow-up period of 1.9 years in median. Patients with high BUN/Cr ratio showed with higher mortality compared to low BUN/Cr ratio (log-rank: P = 0.006). In the multivariable analysis, patients with high BUN/Cr ratio at admission were associated with high mortality independently from other covariates including BUN and creatinine (HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.16-2.80, P = 0.009). In patients with ADHF, there is a relationship between admission BUN-to-creatinine ratio and long-term mortality.