Patients' and staffs' experiences of an automated telephone weather forecasting service

[An integrative review of drug utilization by the elderly in primary health care]

OBJECTIVE

To identify knowledge produced about drug utilization by the elderly in the primary health care context from 2006 to 2014.

METHOD

An integrative review of the PubMed, LILACS, BDENF, and SCOPUS databases, including qualitative research papers in Portuguese, English, and Spanish. It excluded papers with insufficient information regarding the methodological description.

RESULTS

Search found 633 papers that, after being subjected to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, made up a corpusof 76 publications, mostly in English and produced in the United States, England, and Brazil. Results were pooled in eight thematic categories showing the current trend of drug use in the elderly, notably the use of psychotropics, polypharmacy, the prevention of adverse events, and adoption of technologies to facilitate drug management by the elderly. Studies point out the risks posed to the elderly as a consequence of changes in metabolism and simultaneous use of several drugs.

CONCLUSION

There is strong concern about improving communications between professionals and the elderly in order to promote an exchange of information about therapy, and in this way prevent major health complications in this population.

An overview of health forecasting

Health forecasting is a novel area of forecasting, and a valuable tool for predicting future health events or situations such as demands for health services and healthcare needs. It facilitates preventive medicine and health care intervention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigating actions to minimize risks and manage demand. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information and appropriate analytical tools for the prediction of specific health conditions or situations. There is no single approach to health forecasting, and so various methods have often been adopted to forecast aggregate or specific health conditions. Meanwhile, there are no defined health forecasting horizons (time frames) to match the choices of health forecasting methods/approaches that are often applied. The key principles of health forecasting have not also been adequately described to guide the process. This paper provides a brief introduction and theoretical analysis of health forecasting. It describes the key issues that are important for health forecasting, including: definitions, principles of health forecasting, and the properties of health data, which influence the choices of health forecasting methods. Other matters related to the value of health forecasting, and the general challenges associated with developing and using health forecasting services are discussed. This overview is a stimulus for further discussions on standardizing health forecasting approaches and methods that will facilitate health care and health services delivery.