Accuracy of BISAP score in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis

Impact of metabolic syndrome components on clinical outcomes in hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

The incidence of hypertriglyceridemia (HTG)-induced acute pancreatitis (AP) is steadily increasing in China, becoming the second leading cause of AP. Clinical complications and outcomes associated with HTG-AP are generally more severe than those seen in AP caused by other etiologies. HTG-AP is closely linked to metabolic dysfunction and frequently coexists with metabolic syndrome or its components. However, the impact of metabolic syndrome components on HTG-AP clinical outcomes remains unclear.

AIM

To investigate the impact of metabolic syndrome component burden on clinical outcomes in HTG-AP.

METHODS

In this retrospective study of 255 patients diagnosed with HTG-AP at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, we collected data on patient demographics, clinical scores, complications, and clinical outcomes. Subsequently, we analyzed the influence of the presence and number of individual metabolic syndrome components, including obesity, hyperglycemia, hypertension, and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), on the aforementioned parameters in HTG-AP patients.

RESULTS

This study found that metabolic syndrome components were associated with an increased risk of various complications in HTG-AP, with low HDL-C being the most significant risk factor for clinical outcomes. The risk of complications increased with the number of metabolic syndrome components. Adjusted for age and sex, patients with high-component metabolic syndrome had significantly higher risks of renal failure [odds ratio (OR) = 3.02, 95%CI: 1.12-8.11)], SAP (OR = 5.05, 95%CI: 2.04-12.49), and intensive care unit admission (OR = 6.41, 95%CI: 2.42-16.97) compared to those without metabolic syndrome.

CONCLUSION

The coexistence of multiple metabolic syndrome components can synergistically worsen the clinical course of HTG-AP, making it crucial to monitor these components for effective disease management.

Association between triglyceride glucose-body mass index and all-cause mortality in critically ill patients with acute pancreatitis

This study delves into the correlation between the triglyceride glucose-body mass index (TyG-BMI) index upon hospital admission and clinical outcomes among this patient population. We investigated the association between TyG-BMI at hospital admission and clinical outcomes in this patient group, and analyzed data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database, identifying acute pancreatitis (AP) patients admitted to ICUs and stratifying them by TyG-BMI quartiles. We assessed the relationship between TyG-BMI and mortality (both in-hospital and ICU) using Cox proportional hazards regression and restricted cubic splines. The cohort included 419 patients, average age 56.34 ± 16.62 years, with a majority being male (61.58%). Hospital and ICU mortality rates were 11.93% and 7.16%, respectively. Higher TyG-BMI was positively correlated with increased all-cause mortality. Patients in the highest TyG-BMI quartile had significantly greater risks of in-hospital and ICU mortality. An S-shaped curve in the spline analysis indicated a threshold effect at a TyG-BMI of 243 for increased in-hospital mortality risk. TyG-BMI is a reliable predictor of both in-hospital and ICU mortality in severely ill AP patients, suggesting its utility in enhancing risk assessment and guiding clinical interventions for this vulnerable population.

Effect of probiotics combined with Ulinastatin and Somatostatin in the treatment of severe acute pancreatitis

Objective

To evaluate the clinical effect of probiotics combined with Ulinastatin and Somatostatin in the treatment of severe acute pancreatitis.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted on 160 patients with severe acute pancreatitis treated in the First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College from July 2021 to June 2023. There were 78 patients received Ulinastatin and Somatostatin treatment (Control group), and 82 patients received probiotics in addition to Ulinastatin and Somatostatin treatment (Observation group). The treatment effect and the time required to alleviate clinical symptoms were compared between the two groups. Serum levels of inflammatory factors, intestinal mucosal indexes and the incidence of adverse reactions before and after treatment were analyzed.

Results

The total efficacy of the Observation group (95.12%) was higher than that of the Control group (85.90%) (P<0.05). Combined probiotic/Ulinastatin + Somatostatin treatment was associated with shorter time to remission of the clinical symptoms (P<0.05). After the treatment, serum levels of inflammatory factors in the two groups were decreased, and was significantly lower in the Observation group compared to the Control group (P<0.05). Similarly, post-treatment serum levels of intestinal mucosal indexes in the two groups were lower than before the treatment, and significantly lower in the Observation group (P<0.05). There was no significant difference in the incidence of adverse reactions between the groups (P>0.05).

Conclusions

A combined regimen of probiotics, Ulinastatin and Somatostatin is safe and can more effectively relieve clinical symptoms in patients with severe acute pancreatitis, reduce levels of inflammatory factors, lower intestinal mucosal damage and improve the overall treatment effect compared to Ulinastatin and Somatostatin regimen alone.

Predictive value of the Ranson and BISAP scoring systems for the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

To systematically assess and compare the predictive value of the Ranson and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) scoring systems for the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were systematically searched until February 15, 2023. Outcomes in this analysis included severity and prognosis [mortality, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission]. The revised Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool was used to evaluate the quality of diagnostic accuracy studies. The threshold effect was evaluated for each outcome. The sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and the area under the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve (AUC) as well as 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. The DeLong test was used for AUC comparisons. For the outcome evaluated by over 9 studies, publication bias was assessed using the Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test.

RESULTS

Totally 17 studies of 5476 AP patients were included. For severity, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.95 (95%CI: 0.87, 0.98) and 0.67 (95%CI: 0.27, 0.92); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.74 (0.52, 0.88) and 0.95 (95%CI: 0.85, 0.98); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.95 (95%CI: 0.93, 0.97) and 0.94 (95%CI: 0.92, 0.96) (P = 0.480). For mortality, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.89 (95%CI: 0.73, 0.96) and 0.77 (95%CI: 0.58, 0.89); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.79 (95%CI: 0.68, 0.87) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.86, 0.93); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.91 (95%CI: 0.88, 0.93) and 0.92 (95%CI: 0.90, 0.94) (P = 0.480). For organ failure, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.84 (95%CI: 0.76, 0.90) and 0.78 (95%CI: 0.60, 0.90); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.84 (95%CI: 0.63, 0.94) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.72, 0.97); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.86 (95%CI: 0.82, 0.88) and 0.90 (95%CI: 0.87, 0.93) (P = 0.110). For pancreatic necrosis, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.63 (95%CI: 0.35, 0.84) and 0.63 (95%CI: 0.23, 0.90); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.90 (95%CI: 0.77, 0.96) and 0.93 (95%CI: 0.89, 0.96); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.87 (95%CI: 0.84, 0.90) and 0.93 (95%CI: 0.91, 0.95) (P = 0.001). For ICU admission, the pooled sensitivity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.86 (95%CI: 0.77, 0.92) and 0.63 (95%CI: 0.52, 0.73); the pooled specificity of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.58 (95%CI: 0.55, 0.61) and 0.84 (95%CI: 0.81, 0.86); the pooled AUC of the Ranson and BISAP was 0.92 (95%CI: 0.81, 1.00) and 0.86 (95%CI: 0.67, 1.00) (P = 0.592).

CONCLUSION

The Ranson score was an applicable tool for predicting severity and prognosis of AP patients with reliable diagnostic accuracy in resource and time-limited settings. Future large-scale studies are needed to verify the findings.

Association between serum creatinine to albumin ratio and short- and long-term all-cause mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis admitted to the intensive care unit: a retrospective analysis based on the MIMIC-IV database

Background

Serum creatinine (Cr) and albumin (Alb) are important predictors of mortality in individuals with various diseases, including acute pancreatitis (AP). However, most previous studies have only examined the relationship between single Cr or Alb levels and the prognosis of patients with AP. To our knowledge, the association between short- and long-term all-cause mortality in patients with AP and the blood creatinine to albumin ratio (CAR) has not been investigated. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the short- and long-term relationships between CAR and all-cause mortality in patients with AP.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study utilizing data from the Medical Information Market for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database. The study involved analyzing various mortality variables and obtaining CAR values at the time of admission. The X-tile software was used to determine the optimal threshold for the CAR. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival curves and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the relationship between CAR and both short- and long-term all-cause mortality. The predictive power, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) of CAR for short- and long-term mortality in patients with AP after hospital admission were investigated using Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis. Additionally, subgroup analyses were conducted.

Results

A total of 520 participants were included in this study. The CAR ideal threshold, determined by X-tile software, was 0.446. The Cox proportional hazards model revealed an independent association between CAR≥0.446 and all-cause mortality at 7-day (d), 14-d, 21-d, 28-d, 90-d, and 1-year (y) before and after adjustment for confounders. K-M survival curves showed that patients with CAR≥0.446 had lower survival rates at 7-d, 14-d, 21-d, 28-d, 90-d, and 1-y. Additionally, CAR demonstrated superior performance, with higher AUC values than Cr, Alb, serum total calcium, Glasgow Coma Scale, Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome score, and Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment score at 7-d, 14-d, 21-d, 28-d, 90-d, and 1-y intervals. Subgroup analyses showed that CAR did not interact with a majority of subgroups.

Conclusion

The CAR can serve as an independent predictor for short- and long-term all-cause mortality in patients with AP. This study enhances our understanding of the association between serum-based biomarkers and the prognosis of patients with AP.

Value of serum CRP and IL-6 Assays combined with Pancreatitis activity scoring system for assessing the severity of patients with acute pancreatitis

Objective

To evaluate the accuracy of serum CRP and IL-6 assays combined with the pancreatitis activity scoring system (PASS) in assessing the severity of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP).

Methods

This was a retrospective study of 223 patients with AP admitted to Baoding Lianchi District People's Hospital between February 2021 and 2023. They were classified into three categories: mild AP (MAP), moderate severe AP (MSAP) and severe AP (SAP). The differences, accuracy and sensitivity of the individual assays, and the three in combination, were compared and analysed in the three groups.

Results

PASS scores, IL-6 and CRP levels were significantly higher in the SAP and MSAP groups compared to those in the MAP group, with statistically significant differences between the three groups. Multi-factorial logistic regression analysis suggested that PASS, IL-6 and CRP were correlated indicators of AP severity. The combination of the three assays was higher than that of the PASS score, IL-6 and CRP alone, suggesting optimal diagnostic efficacy when the three assays were combined. Moreover, the levels of PASS score, IL-6 and CRP showed a positive correlation with the degree of disease severity.

Conclusions

The serum CRP, IL-6 and PASS scores were significantly elevated in AP patients and showed a positive correlation with disease severity, all of which are beneficial for the diagnosis of AP. PASS is superior to CRP and IL-6 in the assessment of AP. The combination of the three assays can achieve a far superior diagnostic efficacy to that of the individual index assays.

Analysis of risk factors and construction of predictive model for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis

Objective

To explore the risk factors of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) and to establish a predictive model.

Methods

This was a retrospective observational study. Patients diagnosed with calculous cholangitis and treated with ERCP (n=998) in The First People's Hospital of Linping District from January 2014 to September 2022 were included. Risk factors of PEP were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic regression, and a nomograph prediction model was established based on the identified independent risk factors.

Results

PEP occurred in 52 patients (5.2%). Logistic regression analysis showed that common bile duct diameter, history of PEP, operation time, intubation frequency, pancreatic ducts visualization, and Sphincter of Oddi dysfunction (SOD) were independent risk factors for inducing PEP (P<0.05). The calibration curve showed that the predicted probability of occurrence of the nomograph model was consistent with the actual probability of occurrence. The C-index value calculated by the Bootstrap method was 0.966, suggesting the nomograph prediction model has a good discrimination ability. The AUC of the nomograph prediction model ROC curve was 0.966 (95% CI: 0.857-0.941), suggesting good prediction efficiency, and the decision analysis curve shows a high value.

Conclusions

Independent risk factors for PEP are large diameter of common bile duct, history of pancreatitis, long operation time, high intubation frequency, pancreatic ducts visualization, and SOD. The nomogram prediction model based on the above independent risk factors has good prediction ability.

Clinical usefulness of scoring systems to predict severe acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis with pre and post-test probability assessment

BACKGROUND

Scoring systems for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) prediction should be used in conjunction with pre-test probability to establish post-test probability of SAP, but data of this kind are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the predictive value of commonly employed scoring systems and their usefulness in modifying the pre-test probability of SAP.

METHODS

Following PRISMA statement and MOOSE checklists after PROSPERO registration, PubMed was searched from inception until September 2022. Retrospective, prospective, cross-sectional studies or clinical trials on patients with acute pancreatitis defined as Revised Atlanta Criteria, reporting rate of SAP and using at least one score among Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination (APACHE)-II, RANSON, and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) with their sensitivity and specificity were included. Random effects model meta-analyses were performed. Pre-test probability and likelihood ratio (LR) were combined to estimate post-test probability on Fagan nomograms. Pooled severity rate was used as pre-test probability of SAP and pooled sensitivity and specificity to calculate LR and generate post-test probability. A priori hypotheses for heterogeneity were developed and sensitivity analyses planned.

RESULTS

43 studies yielding 14,116 acute pancreatitis patients were included: 42 with BISAP, 30 with APACHE-II, 27 with Ranson, 8 with SIRS. Pooled pre-test probability of SAP ranged 16.6%-25.3%. The post-test probability of SAP with positive/negative score was 47%/6% for BISAP, 43%/5% for APACHE-II, 48%/5% for Ranson, 40%/12% for SIRS. In 18 studies comparing BISAP, APACHE-II, and Ranson in 6740 patients with pooled pre-test probability of SAP of 18.7%, post-test probability when scores were positive was 48% for BISAP, 46% for APACHE-II, 50% for Ranson. When scores were negative, post-test probability dropped to 7% for BISAP, 6% for Ranson, 5% for APACHE-II. Quality, design, and country of origin of the studies did not explain the observed high heterogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

The most commonly used scoring systems to predict SAP perform poorly and do not aid in decision-making.

Severe Acute Pancreatitis Prediction: A Model Derived From a Prospective Registry Cohort

Background Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) has a mortality rate as high as 40%. Early identification of SAP is required to appropriately triage and direct initial therapies. The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic model that identifies patients at risk for developing SAP of patients managed according to a guideline-based standardized early medical management (EMM) protocol. Methods This single-center study included all patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis (AP) and managed with the EMM protocol Methodist Acute Pancreatitis Protocol (MAPP) between April 2017 and September 2022. Classification and regression tree (CART®; Professional Extended Edition, version 8.0; Salford Systems, San Diego, CA), univariate, and logistic regression analyses were performed to develop a scoring system for AP severity prediction. The accuracy of the scoring system was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results A total of 516 patients with mild (n=436) or moderately severe and severe (n=80) AP were analyzed. CART analysis identified the cutoff values: creatinine (CR) (1.15 mg/dL), white blood cells (WBC) (10.5 × 109/L), procalcitonin (PCT) (0.155 ng/mL), and systemic inflammatory response system (SIRS). The prediction model was built with a multivariable logistic regression analysis, which identified CR, WBC, PCT, and SIRS as the main predictors of severity. When CR and only one other predictor value (WBC, PCT, or SIRS) met thresholds, then the probability of predicting SAP was >30%. The probability of predicting SAP was 72% (95%CI: 0.59-0.82) if all four of the main predictors were greater than the cutoff values. Conclusions Baseline laboratory cutoff values were identified and a logistic regression-based prognostic model was developed to identify patients treated with a standardized EMM who were at risk for SAP.

Exploring the value of early laboratory indicators combined with pancreatitis activity scoring system in assessing the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis

Objective

To investigate the value of early laboratory indicators combined with the pancreatitis activity scoring system in assessing the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP).

Methods

This is a retrospective study. A total of 160 patients with AP admitted to the Affiliated Hospital of Hebei University from February 2021 to February 2023 were enrolled and classified into three categories: mild acute pancreatitis (MAP), moderate severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP), and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), with 80 cases with MAP and MSAP as the control group and 80 cases with SAP as the experimental group. The differences of inflammatory markers, blood routine, biochemical markers, coagulation markers and PASS score within 24 hours after admission were compared between the two groups, and independent risk factors for predicting AP severity were analyzed. Moreover, the diagnostic efficacy and prognostic value of independent risk factors were evaluated.

Results

The PASS score as well as CRP, PCT, IL-6, WBC, N, AST, DD and PT were higher in the experimental group than in the control group. Logistic regression analysis suggested that PASS, IL-6, PCT and WBC were independent risk factors for predicting severity of AP. In addition, PASS had the highest diagnostic efficacy.

Conclusion

Early elevation of PASS, IL-6, PCT and WBC in patients suffering from AP is of great significance in predicting SAP. PASS score combined with IL-6, PCT and WBC has important value in evaluating the severity and prognosis of AP.

Ascites Volume Quantification via Abdominal CT: A Novel Approach to Predict Severity in Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis, a sudden inflammation of the pancreas, can result in severe complications. The presence and volume of ascites, an abnormal accumulation of fluid in the abdomen, has been linked to disease severity. Our study investigates ascites volume, quantified via abdominal CT scans, as a potential predictive tool for disease severity. MATERIAL AND METHODS In this retrospective analysis, patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis were evaluated. Patients were categorized into groups with and without ascites, with comparisons made regarding clinical characteristics. We further compared the mean ascitic volume against various outcome parameters in patients with ascites. Ascites volume and other predictive systems were assessed through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, with the area under the ROC curve (AUC) for different predictive systems being analyzed. RESULTS The ascites group had higher severity scores and related serological indexes (P<0.05 for all). Among patients with ascites, a significant correlation was observed between ascites volume and outcome parameters (P<0.05 for all). The area under the ROC curve for predicting severe acute pancreatitis was 0.896, with 93% sensitivity and 79% specificity. Ascites volume yielded the highest diagnostic odds ratio (53.1; 95% confidence interval: 13.2,199.6). CONCLUSIONS Early-stage acute pancreatitis patients with ascites are indicative of severe illness and poor prognosis. An increase in ascites volume correlates with adverse clinical outcomes, thus highlighting the significance of ascites volume as a prognostic marker. This underscores the importance of abdominal CT in measuring ascites volume to predict disease severity.

Current trends in acute pancreatitis: Diagnostic and therapeutic challenges

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory disease of the pancreas, which can progress to severe AP, with a high risk of death. It is one of the most complicated and clinically challenging of all disorders affecting the abdomen. The main causes of AP are gallstone migration and alcohol abuse. Other causes are uncommon, controversial and insufficiently explained. The disease is primarily characterized by inappropriate activation of trypsinogen, infiltration of inflammatory cells, and destruction of secretory cells. According to the revised Atlanta classification, severity of the disease is categorized into three levels: Mild, moderately severe and severe, depending upon organ failure and local as well as systemic complications. Various methods have been used for predicting the severity of AP and its outcome, such as clinical evaluation, imaging evaluation and testing of various biochemical markers. However, AP is a very complex disease and despite the fact that there are of several clinical, biochemical and imaging criteria for assessment of severity of AP, it is not an easy task to predict its subsequent course. Therefore, there are existing controversies regarding diagnostic and therapeutic modalities, their effectiveness and complications in the treatment of AP. The main reason being the fact, that the pathophysiologic mechanisms of AP have not been fully elucidated and need to be studied further. In this editorial article, we discuss the efficacy of the existing diagnostic and therapeutic modalities, complications and treatment failure in the management of AP.

Association between lactate-to-albumin ratio and 28-days all-cause mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis: A retrospective analysis of the MIMIC-IV database

Objective

The Lactate-to-Albumin Ratio (LAR) has been applied as a new predictor in sepsis, heart failure, and acute respiratory failure. However, the role of LAR in predicting all-cause mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis has not been evaluated. Therefore, this study aimed to elucidate the correlation between LAR and 28-d all-cause mortality in patients with Acute Pancreatitis (AP).

Methods

This study is a retrospective cohort study with the data from the MIMIC-IV (v1.0) database. We included adult patients with acute pancreatitis who were admitted to the intensive care unit in the study. The primary outcome was to evaluate the ability of LAR to predict death at 28-d of hospital admission in patients with AP.

Results

A total of 539 patients with acute pancreatitis were included in this study. They were divided into a survival group (486 patients) and a death group (53 patients) according to whether they survived within 28-d of admission, and the mortality rate of patients within 28-d of admission was 9.8%. LAR was shown to be an independent predictor of all-cause mortality within 28-d of admission in patients with AP by multivariate COX regression analysis (HR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.23 - 2.05; P < 0.001). the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value for LAR was 74.26% (95% CI: 67.02% - 81.50%), which was higher than that for arterial blood lactate (AUC = 71.25%) and serum albumin (AUC = 65.92%) alone. It was not inferior even when compared to SOFA (AUC = 75.15%). The optimal cutoff value for separating the survival and death groups according to Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) was found to be 1.1124. plotting Kaplan-Meier analysis with this cutoff value showed that patients with LAR ≥ 1.1124 had significantly higher all-cause mortality within 28-d of admission than those with LAR < 1.1124 (P < 0.001). The final subgroup analysis showed no significant interaction of LAR with each subgroup (P for interaction: 0.06 - 0.974).

Conclusion

LAR can be used as an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in AP patients within 28-d of admission, with superior prognostic performance than arterial blood lactate or serum albumin alone.

Comparative Evaluation of Harmless Acute Pancreatitis Score (HAPS) and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) Scoring System in the Stratification of Prognosis in Acute Pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis is a common disease in patients presenting to the emergency room in any hospital. The most common causes are alcohol ingestion and gallstone disease. Diagnosis is usually based on clinical findings and elevated serum amylase and lipase levels. Imaging is often not necessary but may be used to confirm the diagnosis or rule out any other pathology or to evaluate for any complications. The majority of patients will have a mild, self-limiting disease but others may develop a severe fulminant course with organ failure. These patients are at high risk of developing complications, morbidity or mortality. Treatment of acute pancreatitis includes supportive treatment with antibiotics, fluids, analgesics and early enteral feeding. Several scores have been developed to predict the course of pancreatitis and help make informed decisions, monitoring and timely intervention. The majority of them are complicated, require extensive and expensive interventions or require time. Harmless acute pancreatitis score (HAPS) is one such score that is easy to calculate and is done at the time of admission, bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) is another one requiring more parameters. The parameters used to calculate it are easily available and can be done at a majority of healthcare facilities in developing countries. HAPS thus seems to be a good option in aiding doctors in assessing acute pancreatitis. It may be considered as a standard scoring for acute pancreatitis for early and effective management. We have tried to study and compare the superiority of HAPS over BISAP in predicting prognosis in acute pancreatitis.

The Pancreas and Known Factors of Acute Pancreatitis

Pancreatitis is regarded by clinicians as one of the most complicated and clinically challenging of all disorders affecting the abdomen. It is classified on the basis of clinical, morphological, and histological criteria. Causes of acute pancreatitis can easily be identified in 75–85% of patients. The main causes of acute, recurrent acute, and chronic pancreatitis are gallstone migration and alcohol abuse. Other causes are uncommon, controversial, or unexplained. For instance, cofactors of all forms of pancreatitis are pancreas divisum and hypertriglyceridemia. Another factor that should be considered is a complication of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography: post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography acute pancreatitis. The aim of this study is to present the known risk factors for acute pancreatitis, beginning with an account of the morphology, physiology, and development of the pancreas.

Clinical utility of the pancreatitis activity scoring system in severe acute pancreatitis

Objective: To analyze clinical utility of pancreatitis activity scoring system (PASS) in prediction of persistent organ failure, poor prognosis, and in-hospital mortality in patients with moderately severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP) or severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

Methods: The study included a total of 140 patients with MSAP and SAP admitted to the ICU of Shandong Provincial Hospital from 2015 to 2021. The general information, biochemical indexes and PASS scores of patients at ICU admission time were collected. Independent risk factors of persistent organ failure, poor prognosis and in-hospital mortality were analyzed by binary logistic regression. Through receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the predictive ability of lactic acid, procalcitonin, urea nitrogen, PASS, and PASS in combination with urea nitrogen for the three outcomes was compared. The best cut-off value was determined.

Results: Binary logistic regression showed that PASS might be an independent risk factor for patients with persistent organ failure (odds ratio [OR]: 1.027, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.014–1.039), poor prognosis (OR: 1.008, 95% CI: 1.001–1.014), and in-hospital mortality (OR: 1.009, 95% CI: 1.000–1.019). PASS also had a good predictive ability for persistent organ failure (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.839, 95% CI: 0.769–0.910) and in-hospital mortality (AUC = 0.780, 95% CI: 0.669–0.891), which was significantly superior to lactic acid, procalcitonin, urea nitrogen and Ranson score. PASS (AUC = 0.756, 95% CI: 0.675–0.837) was second only to urea nitrogen (AUC = 0.768, 95% CI: 0.686–0.850) in the prediction of poor prognosis. Furthermore, the predictive power of urea nitrogen in combination with PASS was better than that of each factor for persistent organ failure (AUC = 0.849, 95% CI: 0.779–0.920), poor prognosis (AUC = 0.801, 95% CI: 0.726–0.876), and in-hospital mortality (AUC = 0.796, 95% CI: 0.697–0.894).

Conclusion: PASS was closely correlated with the prognosis of patients with MSAP and SAP. This scoring system may be used as a common clinical index to measure the activity of acute pancreatitis and evaluate disease prognosis.

Diagnosis and Treatment of Acute Pancreatitis

The pancreas is a glandular organ that is responsible for the proper functioning of the digestive and endocrine systems, and therefore, it affects the condition of the entire body. Consequently, it is important to effectively diagnose and treat diseases of this organ. According to clinicians, pancreatitis—a common disease affecting the pancreas—is one of the most complicated and demanding diseases of the abdomen. The classification of pancreatitis is based on clinical, morphologic, and histologic criteria. Medical doctors distinguish, inter alia, acute pancreatitis (AP), the most common causes of which are gallstone migration and alcohol abuse. Effective diagnostic methods and the correct assessment of the severity of acute pancreatitis determine the selection of an appropriate treatment strategy and the prediction of the clinical course of the disease, thus preventing life-threatening complications and organ dysfunction or failure. This review collects and organizes recommendations and guidelines for the management of patients suffering from acute pancreatitis.

Comparison of different risk stratification systems for prediction of acute pancreatitis severity in patients referred to the emergency department of a tertiary care hospital

BACKGROUND

Prognostic prediction and estimation of severity at early stages of acute pancreatitis (AP) are crucial to reduce the complication rates and mortality. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the predicting ability of different clinical and radiological scores in AP.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected demographic and clinical data from 159 patients diagnosed with AP admitted to Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University Hospital between January 2017 and December 2019. Bedside index for severity AP (BISAP), and acute phys-iology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score at admission, Ranson and modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) score at 48 h after admission were calculated. Modified computed tomography severity index (CTSI) was also calculated for each patient. Area under the curve (AUC) was calculated for each scoring system for predicting severe AP, pancreatic necrosis, length of hospital stay, and mortality by determining optimal cutoff points from the (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

mGPS and APACHE II had the highest AUC (0.929 and 0.823, respectively) to predict severe AP on admission with the best specificity and sensitivity. In predicting mortality BISAP (with a sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), and positive predictive value (PPV) of 75.0%, 70.9%, 98.2%, and 12.0%, respectively, [AUC: 0.793]) and APACHE II (with a sensitivity, specificity, NPV and PPV of 87.5%, 86.1%, 99.2%, and 25.0%, respectively, [AUC: 0.840]).

CONCLUSION

mGPS can be a valuable tool in predicting the patients more likely to develop severe AP and maybe somewhat better than BISAP score, APACHE II Ranson score, and mCTSI.

THE EFFICIENCY OF PROGNOSTIC SCALES IN STRATIFICATION OF ACUTE PANCREATITIS. LITERATURE REVIEW

The work carried out by analyzes of the literature data on assessing the severity of acute pancreatitis and predicting its course and mortality. A comparison of traditional point scales for assessing the severity of AP was made.As a result of a comparative analysis, it was found that the most objective instrumental method for diagnosing acute pancreatitis and its complications was MSCT with the determination of the CT index of severity. Balthazar scale allows assessing the severity of the disease and forming a prognosis for the development of complications. However, computed or magnetic resonance imaging with intravenous contrast enhancement allows an accurate assessment of the severity of the disease not earlier than 72 hours and has some contraindications.Estimating and predictive systems Ranson, APACHE, Krasnorogov, Bozhenkov systems, Pugaeva and Achkasova, BISAP and HAPS allow identyfying the severity of the clinical course of acute pancreatitis, have a high sensitivity, but at the same time require significant time and resources for execution. Glasgow-Imrie, SAPS, MODS, and SOFA scales mainly calculate mortality and degree of multiple organ failure in critically ill patients; these severity assessment systems are not specific for patients with acute pancreatitis.The optimal scale for assessing the severity of AP should allow assessing the patient's condition and prognosis from the moment of admission to the outcome of the disease. The practicing surgeon will be interested in an affordable, inexpensive, easy-to-use system for determining the severity of acute pancreatitis. For surgeons, the time factor plays a key role in determining tactics, and, therefore, improves the prognosis of the disease.

Recent Advances in Diagnosis and Severity Assessment of Acute Pancreatitis

The incidence and prevalence of acute pancreatitis (AP) is increasing over time. The diagnosis of acute pancreatitis is established by revised Atlanta criteria (2012). Multiple criteria and scoring systems have been used for assessment of severity of AP. Majority of acute pancreatitis cases (80%) are mild, the challenge remains in early diagnosis, severity assessment and treatment of severe AP and its complications. Assessment of severity of AP is important part of management because line of treatment depends on aetiology and severity of acute pancreatitis. In this article a comprehensive review of recent advances in diagnosis and severity assessment of acute pancreatitis has been described.

Multifactorial Scores and Biomarkers of Prognosis of Acute Pancreatitis: Applications to Research and Practice

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a severe inflammation of the pancreas presented with sudden onset and severe abdominal pain with a high morbidity and mortality rate, if accompanied by severe local and systemic complications. Numerous studies have been published about the pathogenesis of AP; however, the precise mechanism behind this pathology remains unclear. Extensive research conducted over the last decades has demonstrated that the first 24 h after symptom onset are critical for the identification of patients who are at risk of developing complications or death. The identification of these subgroups of patients is crucial in order to start an aggressive approach to prevent mortality. In this sense and to avoid unnecessary overtreatment, thereby reducing the financial implications, the proper identification of mild disease is also important and necessary. A large number of multifactorial scoring systems and biochemical markers are described to predict the severity. Despite recent progress in understanding the pathophysiology of AP, more research is needed to enable a faster and more accurate prediction of severe AP. This review provides an overview of the available multifactorial scoring systems and biochemical markers for predicting severe AP with a special focus on their advantages and limitations.