Traditional Medicare Spending on Inpatient Episodes as Hospitalizations Decline

Medicare's hospital readmissions reduction program and the rise in observation stays

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether Medicare's Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) is associated with increased observation stay use.

DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SETTING

A nationally representative sample of fee-for-service Medicare claims, January 2009-September 2016.

STUDY DESIGN

Using a difference-in-difference (DID) design, we modeled changes in observation stays as a proportion of total hospitalizations, separately comparing the initial (acute myocardial infarction, pneumonia, heart failure) and subsequent (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) target conditions with a control group of nontarget conditions. Each model used 3 time periods: baseline (15 months before program announcement), an intervening period between announcement and implementation, and a 2-year post-implementation period, with specific dates defined by HRRP policies.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

We derived a 20% random sample of all hospitalizations for beneficiaries continuously enrolled for 12 months before hospitalization (N = 7,162,189).

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Observation stays increased similarly for the initial HRRP target and nontarget conditions in the intervening period (0.01% points per month [95% CI -0.01, 0.3]). Post-implementation, observation stays increased significantly more for target versus nontarget conditions, but the difference is quite small (0.02% points per month [95% CI 0.002, 0.04]). Results for the COPD analysis were statistically insignificant in both policy periods.

CONCLUSIONS

The increase in observation stays is likely due to other factors, including audit activity and clinical advances.

Traditional Medicare Episode-Related Spending on Postacute Care for Dual-Eligible and Medicare-Only Beneficiaries, 2009-2017

Dual-eligible beneficiaries with Medicare and Medicaid coverage generally have greater utilization and spending levels than Medicare-only beneficiaries on postacute services, raising questions about how strategies to curb postacute spending will affect dual-eligible beneficiaries. We compared trends in postacute spending and use related to inpatient episodes at a population and episode level for dual-eligible and Medicare-only beneficiaries over the years 2009-2017. Although dual-eligible beneficiaries had consistently higher inpatient and postacute service use and spending than Medicare-only populations, both populations experienced similar declines in inpatient and postacute measures over time. Conditional on having an inpatient stay, most types of postacute service use increased regardless of dual-eligible status. These consistent patterns in episode-related postacute spending for Medicare-only and dual-eligible beneficiaries-decreased episode-related spending and use on a per beneficiary basis and increased use and spending on a per episode basis-suggest that changing patterns of care affect both populations.

Variation in Clinical Characteristics and Longitudinal Outcomes in Individuals with Opioid Use Disorder Diagnosis Codes

BACKGROUND

Patterns of opioid use vary, including prescribed use without aberrancy, limited aberrant use, and potential opioid use disorder (OUD). In clinical practice, similar opioid-related International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes are applied across this spectrum, limiting understanding of how groups vary by sociodemographic factors, comorbidities, and long-term risks.

OBJECTIVE

(1) Examine how Veterans assigned opioid abuse/dependence ICD codes vary at diagnosis and with respect to long-term risks. (2) Determine whether those with limited aberrant use share more similarities to likely OUD vs those using opioids as prescribed.

DESIGN

Longitudinal observational cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

National sample of Veterans categorized as having (1) likely OUD, (2) limited aberrant opioid use, or (3) prescribed, non-aberrant use based upon enhanced medical chart review.

MAIN MEASURES

Comparison of sociodemographic and clinical factors at diagnosis and rates of age-adjusted mortality, non-fatal opioid overdose, and hospitalization after diagnosis. An exploratory machine learning analysis investigated how closely those with limited aberrant use resembled those with likely OUD.

KEY RESULTS

Veterans (n = 483) were categorized as likely OUD (62.1%), limited aberrant use (17.8%), and prescribed, non-aberrant use (20.1%). Age, proportion experiencing homelessness, chronic pain, anxiety disorders, and non-opioid substance use disorders differed by group. All-cause mortality was high (44.2 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 33.9, 56.7)). Hospitalization rates per 1000 person-years were highest in the likely OUD group (831.5 (95% CI 771.0, 895.5)), compared to limited aberrant use (739.8 (95% CI 637.1, 854.4)) and prescribed, non-aberrant use (411.9 (95% CI 342.6, 490.4). The exploratory analysis reclassified 29.1% of those with limited aberrant use as having likely OUD with high confidence.

CONCLUSIONS

Veterans assigned opioid abuse/dependence ICD codes are heterogeneous and face variable long-term risks. Limited aberrant use confers increased risk compared to no aberrant use, and some may already have OUD. Findings warrant future investigation of this understudied population.

A comparison of end-of-life care patterns between older patients with both cancer and Alzheimer's disease and related dementias versus those with only cancer

INTRODUCTION

Aggressive end-of-life (EOL) care that is not aligned with the preferences of persons with cancer has negative impacts on their quality of life. Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) could potentially complicate EOL care planning among persons with cancer. Little is known about the aggressive EOL care patterns among Medicare beneficiaries with both cancer and ADRD.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A matched retrospective cohort was created using the 2004 to 2016 Surveillance, Epidemiology, End Results-Medicare (SEER-Medicare) data differentiated by beneficiaries' ADRD status. Beneficiaries with breast, lung, colorectal, or prostate cancer who died between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2016, were included. Six existing domains of aggressive EOL care and one overall indicator were derived. The major predictor was having ADRD comorbidity; other covariates included sex, marital status, census tract poverty indicator, race/ethnicity, metro status, geographic location, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), survival time, cancer site, and histology stage. Multivariable logistic regression models were deployed to estimate the odds of receiving aggressive EOL care.

RESULTS

The study sample was 135,380 people after the one-to-one propensity score matching. The prevalence of aggressive EOL care utilization was slightly lower in beneficiaries with both cancer and ADRD when compared to beneficiaries with cancer only (54% vs. 58%, p < 0.0001). Beneficiaries with both cancer and ADRD were less likely to receive aggressive EOL care (AOR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.86, 0.90) versus beneficiaries with cancer only. From the multivariable logistic regression model, certain beneficiaries' characteristics were associated with higher odds of receiving aggressive EOL care, such as: beneficiaries belonging to a racial/ethnic minority, a shorter survival time, and a higher CCI score.

DISCUSSION

The combined presence of ADRD and cancer was associated with lower odds of receiving aggressive EOL care compared to the presence of only cancer; however, the prevalence difference between the cohorts was not huge. Future studies could conduct in-depth evaluations of the ADRD's influence on the EOL care utilization.