Do scoring systems help in predicting survival following ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery?

Comparison of different intensive care scoring systems and Glasgow Aneurysm score for aortic aneurysm in predicting 28-day mortality: a retrospective cohort study from MIMIC-IV database

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to assess the performance of various scoring systems in predicting the 28-day mortality of patients with aortic aneurysms (AA) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

We utilized data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) to perform a comparative analysis of various predictive systems, including the Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS), Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) III, SAPS II, Logical Organ Dysfunction System (LODS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS), and The Oxford Acute Illness Severity Score (OASIS). The discrimination abilities of these systems were compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Additionally, a 4-knotted restricted cubic spline regression was employed to evaluate the association between the different scoring systems and the risk of 28-day mortality. Finally, we conducted a subgroup analysis focusing on patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA).

RESULTS

This study enrolled 586 patients with AA (68.39% male). Among them, 26 patients (4.4%) died within 28 days. Comparative analysis revealed higher SAPS II, SAPS III, SOFA, LODS, OASIS, and SIRS scores in the deceased group, while no statistically significant difference was observed in GAS scores between the survivor and deceased groups (P = 0.148). The SAPS III system exhibited superior predictive value for the 28-day mortality rate (AUROC 0.805) compared to the LODS system (AUROC 0.771), SOFA (AUROC 0.757), SAPS II (AUROC 0.759), OASIS (AUROC 0.742), SIRS (AUROC 0.638), and GAS (AUROC 0.586) systems. The results of the univariate and multivariate logistic analyses showed that SAPS III was statistically significant for both 28-day and 1-year mortality. Subgroup analyses yielded results consistent with the overall findings. No nonlinear relationship was identified between these scoring systems and 28-day all-cause mortality (P for nonlinear > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The SAPS III system demonstrated superior discriminatory ability for both 28-day and 1-year mortality compared to the GAS, SAPS II SIRS, SOFA, and OASIS systems among patients with AA.

A Simple Risk Scoring Systems to evaluate the presence of aneurysm and one-year mortality in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm using CHA2DS2-VASc and ATRIA

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to demonstrate the clinical utility of CHA2DS2-VASc and anticoagulation and risk factors in atrial fibrillation risk scores in the assessment of one year mortality in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm.

METHODS

We designed a retrospective cohort study using data from Suleyman Demirel University Hospital for the diagnosis of abdominal aortic aneurysm. The study included 120 patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm who underwent aortic computed tomography. Patients were divided into two groups according to presence of abdominal aortic aneurysm and the development of mortality. Predictors of mortality were determined by multiple logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Multivariate regression analysis showed that CHA2DS2-VASc score, advanced age, female gender and elevated white blood cell counts were independent predictors of abdominal aortic aneurysm development while CHA2DS2-VASc score and elevated glucose levels were independent predictors of one year mortality in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm. The concordance statistics for anticoagulation and risk factors in atrial fibrillation risk Score and CHA2DS2-VASc risk score respectively were 0.96 and 0.97 and could significantly predict one year mortality in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm (p<0.001, and p<0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

CHA2DS2-VASc and anticoagulation and risk factors in atrial fibrillation risk scores are easily obtained in an emergency setting and can accurately predict one year mortality as a noninvasive follow-up in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm. These simple scores could be used as a point of care decision aid to help the clinician in counseling patients presenting with abdominal aortic aneurysm and their families on treatment protocols.

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio: A Comparative Study of Rupture to Nonruptured Infrarenal Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

BACKGROUND

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has recently emerged as a useful predictor of cardiovascular risk and adverse outcomes. According to previous studies, an NLR >5 has the highest sensitivity and specificity for postoperative morbidity and mortality in cardiovascular disease. This study aims to evaluate the NLR in cases of infrarenal unruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (uAAA) and ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA) and to assess the role of NLR as a prognostic marker of 30-day mortality in patients with uAAA and rAAA who underwent surgical repair.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study examined 255 consecutive patients with intact or ruptured infrarenal AAA who underwent elective or urgent open repair surgery within our clinic in a 10-year period. Differences in prevalence were assessed using chi-squared calculations and values greater than 5 and a P-value less than 0.05 were considered significant. The averages were compared using the ANOVA parameter test when the Bartlett P-value was greater than 0.05.

RESULTS

The average NLR appeared to be significantly higher in the group of patients with rAAA (9.3 vs. 3.39, respectively P < 0001). Furthermore, NLR > 5 occurred in 77.6% of patients with rAAA but only 32.5% in patients with uAAA (odds ratio 5.085; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.0025-8.6145; P < 0000.1). In terms of the postoperative prognosis in patients with uAAA, mortality after 30 days postoperatively was considerably higher at 16.6% in patients with NLR >5 compared with 6% for patients with NLR < 5 (RR: 2.77; 95% CI: 1.020-7.55; P < 0.045). In the case of rAAA, mortality after 30 days was higher in patients with NLR >5 (61.44%) than those with NLR < 5 (45.83%). There was no relationship between NLR and length of hospital stay or between NLR and the maximum diameter of the AAA. There was also no difference in the NLR between genders or age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The main findings of this study were the poor outcomes in terms of 30-day mortality for the patients presenting NLR values greater than 5 undergoing open surgical repair in both categories: infrarenal uAAA and rAAA. We also show that NLR is significantly higher among patients with rAAA and that an NLR >5 indicates a 5 times greater possibility of AAA being ruptured. We can use this easily determinable, broadly available, and inexpensive marker to identify high-risk patients, individually, or integrated into a risk-stratification system for patients diagnosed with AAA. This would help in the therapeutic management of AAA, including the avoidance of open surgery when there are prohibitive risks, instead opting for an endovascular approach.

Repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm after cardiac arrest

OBJECTIVE

Cardiac arrest in patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA) is not uncommon and associated with significantly increased mortality. Although it has been suggested as a contraindication to aortic repair, the prognostic implications of preoperative cardiac arrest in the face of rAAA are controversial. The purpose of this structured review is to analyze the reported outcomes of patients with rAAA and preoperative cardiac arrest.

METHODS

English language single- and multi-institutional series reporting outcomes of patients with rAAA and cardiac arrest were identified by systematic literature search and review. An aggregate analysis and structured review of outcomes after subsequent aortic repair was performed using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology. The primary outcome was short-term overall mortality.

RESULTS

Sixteen studies involving 2669 patients with rAAA were analyzed, including 334 (13%) with preoperative cardiac arrest. Cardiac arrest was associated with significantly increased mortality compared with patients with rAAA without arrest (86% vs 44%; P < .0001), although cardiac arrest in isolation was poorly predictive of mortality. Four patients were treated by endovascular aortic repair, and all survived. Shorter resuscitation times and return of signs of life prior to aortic repair are associated with improved survival, and long-term functional outcomes among survivors have been reported.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality among patients with rAAA and preoperative cardiac arrest is high but not prohibitive. Aortic repair should not be withheld from such patients who are otherwise reasonable candidates for intervention, provided resources for emergent aortic repair are available.

Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: Prediction of Mortality From Clinical Presentation and Glasgow Aneurysm Score

OBJECTIVE

To examine association of presenting clinical acuity and Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS) with perioperative and 1-year mortality.

DESIGN

Retrospective chart review.

SETTING

Major tertiary care facility.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA) from 2003 through 2013.

INTERVENTIONS

Emergency repair of rAAA.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The authors reviewed outcomes after stable versus unstable presentation and by GAS. Unstable presentation included hypotension, cardiac arrest, loss of consciousness, and preoperative tracheal intubation. In total, 125 patients (40 stable) underwent repair. Perioperative mortality rates were 41% and 12% in unstable and stable patients, respectively (p<0.001). Unstable status had 88% sensitivity and 41% specificity for predicting perioperative mortality. Using logistic regression, higher GAS was associated with perioperative mortality (p<0.001). Using receiver operating characteristic analysis, the area under the curve was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.62-0.82) and cutoff GAS≥96 had 63% and 72% sensitivity and specificity, respectively. Perioperative mortality for GAS≥96 was 51% (25/49), whereas it was 20% (15/76) for GAS≤95. The estimated 1-year survival (95% CI) was 75% (62%-91%) for stable patients and 48% (38%-60%) for unstable patients. Estimated 1-year survival (95% CI) was 23% (13%-40%) for GAS≥96 and 77% (67%-87%) for GAS≤95.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical presentation and GAS identified patients with rAAA who were likely to have a poor surgical outcome. GAS≥96 was associated with poor long-term survival, but>20% of these patients survived 1 year. Thus, neither clinical presentation nor GAS provided reliable guidance for decisions regarding futility of surgery.

Glasgow aneurysm scores in patients undergoing open surgical procedure for aortic aneurysm

BACKGROUND

To assess the applicability of the Glasgow aneurysm score (GAS) in patients with aortic aneurysm undergoing an elective open surgical procedure in our hospital.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 105 patients undergoing elective open surgical procedure between January 2006 and June 2012 were evaluated retrospectively. Glasgow aneurysm score (GAS) was calculated as age+7 points for myocardial disease, +10 points for cerebrovascular disease, and +14 points for renal disease. The best cut-off value for GAS was determined using the ROC curve analysis.

RESULTS

The hospital mortality rate was 3.8% (4 patients). GAS was significantly lower in patients who survived the operation (76.05 ± 14.71 vs. 92.0 ± 10.8 respectively, p = 0.031). The ICU stay was also significantly lower in patients who survived the operation (2.37 ± 5.23) compared to the nonsurvivors (25.67 ± 13.80, p = 0.001). No significant difference was observed regarding age, duration of hospital stay, and aortic diameter. The area under the ROC curve was 0.818 and for a 100% sensitivity rate, the cut-off value for GAS was 77.5 with a 58.4% specificity rate (p = 0.031). All patients with a GAS < 77.5 were alive after surgery.

CONCLUSION

The GAS appears to be a reliable clinical predictor for in hospital mortality following elective repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm following open surgical procedure.

Glasgow aneurysm score in predicting outcome after ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

OBJECTIVE

To assess the ability of Glasgow Aneurysm Score in predicting postoperative mortality for ruptured aortic aneurysm which may assist in decision making regarding the open surgical repair of an individual patient.

METHODS

A total of 121 patients diagnosed of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm who underwent open surgery in our hospital between 1999 and 2013 were included. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score for each patient was graded according to the Glasgow Aneurysm Score (Glasgow Aneurysm Score = age in years + 17 for shock + 7 for myocardial disease + 10 for cerebrovascular disease + 14 for renal disease). The groups were divided as Group 1 (containing the patients who died) and Group 2 (the patients who were discharged). The Glasgow Aneurysm Scores amongst the groups were compared.

RESULTS

Out of 121 patients, 108 (89.3%) were males and 13 (10.7%) were females. The in-hospital mortality was 48 patients (39.7%). The Glasgow Aneurysm Score was 84.15 ± 15.94 in Group 1 and 75.14 ± 14.67 in Group 2 which revealed significance (p = 0.002). The most appropriate cut-off value for Glasgow Aneurysm Score was determined as 78.5 (AUC = 0.669, p = 0.002, sensitivity: 64.6%, specificity: 60.3%). Glasgow Aneurysm Score value above 78.5 is associated with almost threefold increase in mortality (p = 0.007, OR:2.76, 95% CI 1.30-5.89). In further logistic regression models, Glasgow Aneurysm Score value and preoperative hematocrit values were found to be independent predictors for mortality (p = 0.023 and p = 0.007, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Glasgow Aneurysm Score may have a predictive value for outcome of patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm undergoing open surgical procedure and it appears to be a useful tool in clinical decision-making of an individual patient when integrated with clinical experience.

Preoperative arterial blood lactate levels as a predictor of hospital mortality in patients with a ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

PURPOSE

To establish if preoperative arterial blood lactate (Lac) is a factor related to hospital death for patients with a ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA).

METHODS

The subjects were 55 patients who underwent surgery for an rAAA in a single institution between July, 2000 and November, 2009. Patients were divided into a survivor group and a non-survivor group. We compared the preoperative Lac levels and other data between the groups.

RESULTS

There were ten hospital deaths. On univariate analysis, preoperative Lac levels, shock vital, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, Hardman index ≥3, and Glasgow aneurysm score ≥84 were significantly higher and preoperative hemoglobin was significantly lower in the non-survivor group. The postoperative mortality rate tended to increase with preoperative Lac levels. The mortality rate of patients with a preoperative Lac level higher than 9 mmol/l was 86 %. Those factors that had significant association with hospital mortality on univariate analysis were consecutively analyzed using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that a preoperative Lac level >9 mmol/l was the only independent risk factor of hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION

The preoperative Lac level of patients with a rAAA may be a predictor of their prognosis.

Preoperative risk factors for in-hospital mortality and validity of the Glasgow aneurysm score and Hardman index in patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

The aim of this study is to evaluate the validity of the Glasgow aneurysm score (GAS) and Hardman index in patients operated on because of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA), and determining preoperative risk factors that affect in-hospital mortality. One hundred one patients operated on to repair a rAAA within the last 10 years were included. The GAS and Hardman index were calculated for each patient separately. The relation between in-hospital mortality and the Hardman index and GAS was analyzed by means of the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve. Univariate and multivariate methods of analyses were used to determine preoperative risk factors. Average age was 69 ± 8, and in-hospital mortality rate was 51.5%. Analysis of the ROC curve showed that the Hardman index had an area under the curve (AUC) = 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.593–0.800, P = 0.0002) for predicting in-hospital mortality. The GAS had an AUC = 0.77 (95% CI, 0.680–0.851, P < 0.0001). The results of multivariate analysis revealed the presence of the following preoperative risk factors: age more than 63 years (odds ratio [OR], 4.4; 95% CI, 1.17–16.49, P = 0.028); loss of consciousness (OR, 9.33; 95% CI, 1.94–44.86, P = 0.005); creatinine higher than 1.7 mg/dL (OR, 5.52; 95% CI, 1.92–15.85, P = 0.001); and pH lower than 7.31 (OR, 3.77; 95% CI, 1.18–11.99, P = 0.024). In conclusion, the Hardman index and GAS have a significant correlation with in-hospital mortality rates. Nevertheless, a high score does not necessarily correspond with a definite mortality. This is why scoring systems could not be considered as the sole criterion for choosing patients for this study. Clinical experience was still the leading factor in deciding against or in favor of surgery.