Predictability of evolutionary trajectories in fitness landscapes

Understanding evolutionary rescue and parallelism in response to environmental stress

Evolutionary rescue, the process by which populations facing environmental stress avoid extinction through genetic adaptation, is a critical area of study in evolutionary biology. The order in which mutations arise and get established will be relevant to the population's rescue. This study investigates the degree of parallel evolution at the genotypic level between independent populations facing environmental stress and subject to different demographic regimes. Under density regulation, 2 regimes exist: In the first, the population can restore positive growth rates by adjusting its population size or through adaptive mutations, whereas in the second regime, the population is doomed to extinction unless a rescue mutation occurs. Analytical approximations for the likelihood of evolutionary rescue are obtained and contrasted with simulation results. We show that the initial level of maladaptation and the demographic regime significantly affect the level of parallelism. There is an evident transition between these 2 regimes. Whereas in the first regime, parallelism decreases with the level of maladaptation, it displays the opposite behavior in the rescue/extinction regime. These findings have important implications for understanding population persistence and the degree of parallelism in evolutionary responses as they integrate demographic effects and evolutionary processes.

Evolutionary repeatability of emergent properties of ecological communities

Most species belong to ecological communities where their interactions give rise to emergent community-level properties, such as diversity and productivity. Understanding and predicting how these properties change over time has been a major goal in ecology, with important practical implications for sustainability and human health. Less attention has been paid to the fact that community-level properties can also change because member species evolve. Yet, our ability to predict long-term eco-evolutionary dynamics hinges on how repeatably community-level properties change as a result of species evolution. Here, we review studies of evolution of both natural and experimental communities and make the case that community-level properties at least sometimes evolve repeatably. We discuss challenges faced in investigations of evolutionary repeatability. In particular, only a handful of studies enable us to quantify repeatability. We argue that quantifying repeatability at the community level is critical for approaching what we see as three major open questions in the field: (i) Is the observed degree of repeatability surprising? (ii) How is evolutionary repeatability at the community level related to repeatability at the level of traits of member species? (iii) What factors affect repeatability? We outline some theoretical and empirical approaches to addressing these questions. Advances in these directions will not only enrich our basic understanding of evolution and ecology but will also help us predict eco-evolutionary dynamics. This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches to predicting evolutionary biology'.

Novelty Search Promotes Antigenic Diversity in Microbial Pathogens

Driven by host–pathogen coevolution, cell surface antigens are often the fastest evolving parts of a microbial pathogen. The persistent evolutionary impetus for novel antigen variants suggests the utility of novelty-seeking algorithms in predicting antigen diversification in microbial pathogens. In contrast to traditional genetic algorithms maximizing variant fitness, novelty-seeking algorithms optimize variant novelty. Here, we designed and implemented three evolutionary algorithms (fitness-seeking, novelty-seeking, and hybrid) and evaluated their performances in 10 simulated and 2 empirically derived antigen fitness landscapes. The hybrid walks combining fitness- and novelty-seeking strategies overcame the limitations of each algorithm alone, and consistently reached global fitness peaks. Thus, hybrid walks provide a model for microbial pathogens escaping host immunity without compromising variant fitness. Biological processes facilitating novelty-seeking evolution in natural pathogen populations include hypermutability, recombination, wide dispersal, and immune-compromised hosts. The high efficiency of the hybrid algorithm improves the evolutionary predictability of novel antigen variants. We propose the design of escape-proof vaccines based on high-fitness variants covering a majority of the basins of attraction on the fitness landscape representing all potential variants of a microbial antigen.

Rate of environmental variation impacts the predictability in evolution

In the two last decades, we have improved our understanding of the adaptive evolution of natural populations under constant and stable environments. For instance, experimental methods from evolutionary biology have allowed us to explore the structure of fitness landscapes and survey how the landscape properties can constrain the adaptation process. However, understanding how environmental changes can affect adaptation remains challenging. Very little progress has been made with respect to time-varying fitness landscapes. Using the adaptive-walk approximation, we survey the evolutionary process of populations under a scenario of environmental variation. In particular, we investigate how the rate of environmental variation influences the predictability in evolution. We observe that the rate of environmental variation not only changes the duration of adaptive walks towards fitness peaks of the fitness landscape, but also affects the degree of repeatability of both outcomes and evolutionary paths. In general, slower environmental variation increases the predictability in evolution. The accessibility of endpoints is greatly influenced by the ecological dynamics. The dependence of these quantities on the genome size and number of traits is also addressed. To our knowledge, this contribution is the first to use the predictive approach to quantify and understand the impact of the speed of environmental variation on the degree of parallelism of the evolutionary process.

Getting higher on rugged landscapes: Inversion mutations open access to fitter adaptive peaks in NK fitness landscapes

Molecular evolution is often conceptualised as adaptive walks on rugged fitness landscapes, driven by mutations and constrained by incremental fitness selection. It is well known that epistasis shapes the ruggedness of the landscape’s surface, outlining their topography (with high-fitness peaks separated by valleys of lower fitness genotypes). However, within the strong selection weak mutation (SSWM) limit, once an adaptive walk reaches a local peak, natural selection restricts passage through downstream paths and hampers any possibility of reaching higher fitness values. Here, in addition to the widely used point mutations, we introduce a minimal model of sequence inversions to simulate adaptive walks. We use the well known NK model to instantiate rugged landscapes. We show that adaptive walks can reach higher fitness values through inversion mutations, which, compared to point mutations, allows the evolutionary process to escape local fitness peaks. To elucidate the effects of this chromosomal rearrangement, we use a graph-theoretical representation of accessible mutants and show how new evolutionary paths are uncovered. The present model suggests a simple mechanistic rationale to analyse escapes from local fitness peaks in molecular evolution driven by (intragenic) structural inversions and reveals some consequences of the limits of point mutations for simulations of molecular evolution.

Ninety years ago, Wright translated Darwin’s core idea of survival of the fittest into rugged landscapes—a highly influential metaphor—with peaks representing high values of fitness separated by valleys of lower fitness. In this picture, once a population has reached a local peak, the adaptive dynamics may stall as further adaptation requires crossing a valley. At the DNA level, adaptation is often modelled as a space of genotypes that is explored through point mutations. Therefore, once a local peak is reached, any genotype fitter than that of the peak will be away from the neighbourhood of genotypes accessible through point mutations. Here we present a simple computational model for inversion mutations, one of the most frequent structural variations, and show that adaptive processes in rugged landscapes can escape from local peaks through intragenic inversion mutations. This new escape mechanism reveals the innovative role of inversions at the DNA level and provides a step towards more realistic models of adaptive dynamics, beyond the dominance of point mutations in theories of molecular evolution.

A Family of Fitness Landscapes Modeled through Gene Regulatory Networks

Fitness landscapes are a powerful metaphor for understanding the evolution of biological systems. These landscapes describe how genotypes are connected to each other through mutation and related through fitness. Empirical studies of fitness landscapes have increasingly revealed conserved topographical features across diverse taxa, e.g., the accessibility of genotypes and "ruggedness". As a result, theoretical studies are needed to investigate how evolution proceeds on fitness landscapes with such conserved features. Here, we develop and study a model of evolution on fitness landscapes using the lens of Gene Regulatory Networks (GRNs), where the regulatory products are computed from multiple genes and collectively treated as phenotypes. With the assumption that regulation is a binary process, we prove the existence of empirically observed, topographical features such as accessibility and connectivity. We further show that these results hold across arbitrary fitness functions and that a trade-off between accessibility and ruggedness need not exist. Then, using graph theory and a coarse-graining approach, we deduce a mesoscopic structure underlying GRN fitness landscapes where the information necessary to predict a population's evolutionary trajectory is retained with minimal complexity. Using this coarse-graining, we develop a bottom-up algorithm to construct such mesoscopic backbones, which does not require computing the genotype network and is therefore far more efficient than brute-force approaches. Altogether, this work provides mathematical results of high-dimensional fitness landscapes and a path toward connecting theory to empirical studies.

Lanza V, Rodríguez-Beltrán J, Galán JC, San Millán A, Cantón R, Coque TM. Evolutionary Pathways and Trajectories in Antibiotic Resistance

Evolution is the hallmark of life. Descriptions of the evolution of microorganisms have provided a wealth of information, but knowledge regarding "what happened" has precluded a deeper understanding of "how" evolution has proceeded, as in the case of antimicrobial resistance. The difficulty in answering the "how" question lies in the multihierarchical dimensions of evolutionary processes, nested in complex networks, encompassing all units of selection, from genes to communities and ecosystems. At the simplest ontological level (as resistance genes), evolution proceeds by random (mutation and drift) and directional (natural selection) processes; however, sequential pathways of adaptive variation can occasionally be observed, and under fixed circumstances (particular fitness landscapes), evolution is predictable. At the highest level (such as that of plasmids, clones, species, microbiotas), the systems' degrees of freedom increase dramatically, related to the variable dispersal, fragmentation, relatedness, or coalescence of bacterial populations, depending on heterogeneous and changing niches and selective gradients in complex environments. Evolutionary trajectories of antibiotic resistance find their way in these changing landscapes subjected to random variations, becoming highly entropic and therefore unpredictable. However, experimental, phylogenetic, and ecogenetic analyses reveal preferential frequented paths (highways) where antibiotic resistance flows and propagates, allowing some understanding of evolutionary dynamics, modeling and designing interventions. Studies on antibiotic resistance have an applied aspect in improving individual health, One Health, and Global Health, as well as an academic value for understanding evolution. Most importantly, they have a heuristic significance as a model to reduce the negative influence of anthropogenic effects on the environment.

Both Binding Strength and Evolutionary Accessibility Affect the Population Frequency of Transcription Factor Binding Sequences in Arabidopsis thaliana

Mutations in DNA sequences that bind transcription factors and thus modulate gene expression are a source of adaptive variation in gene expression. To understand how transcription factor binding sequences evolve in natural populations of the thale cress Arabidopsis thaliana, we integrated genomic polymorphism data for loci bound by transcription factors with in vitro data on binding affinity for these transcription factors. Specifically, we studied 19 different transcription factors, and the allele frequencies of 8,333 genomic loci bound in vivo by these transcription factors in 1,135 A. thaliana accessions. We find that transcription factor binding sequences show very low genetic diversity, suggesting that they are subject to purifying selection. High frequency alleles of such binding sequences tend to bind transcription factors strongly. Conversely, alleles that are absent from the population tend to bind them weakly. In addition, alleles with high frequencies also tend to be the endpoints of many accessible evolutionary paths leading to these alleles. We show that both high affinity and high evolutionary accessibility contribute to high allele frequency for at least some transcription factors. Although binding sequences with stronger affinity are more frequent, we did not find them to be associated with higher gene expression levels. Epistatic interactions among individual mutations that alter binding affinity are pervasive and can help explain variation in accessibility among binding sequences. In summary, combining in vitro binding affinity data with in vivo binding sequence data can help understand the forces that affect the evolution of transcription factor binding sequences in natural populations.

Unbiased inference of the fitness landscape ruggedness from imprecise fitness estimates

Fitness landscapes map genotypes to their corresponding fitness under given environments and allow explaining and predicting evolutionary trajectories. Of particular interest is the landscape ruggedness or the unevenness of the landscape, because it impacts many aspects of evolution such as the likelihood that a population is trapped in a local fitness peak. Although the ruggedness has been inferred from a number of empirically mapped fitness landscapes, it is unclear to what extent this inference is affected by fitness estimation error, which is inevitable in the experimental determination of fitness landscapes. Here, we address this question by simulating fitness landscapes under various theoretical models, with or without fitness estimation error. We find that all eight examined measures of landscape ruggedness are overestimated due to imprecise fitness quantification, but different measures are affected to different degrees. We devise a method to use replicate fitness measures to correct this bias and show that our method performs well under realistic conditions. We conclude that previously reported fitness landscape ruggedness is likely upward biased owing to the negligence of fitness estimation error and advise that future fitness landscape mapping should include at least three biological replicates to permit an unbiased inference of the ruggedness.

Experimental Resurrection of Ancestral Mammalian CPEB3 Ribozymes Reveals Deep Functional Conservation

Self-cleaving ribozymes are genetic elements found in all domains of life, but their evolution remains poorly understood. A ribozyme located in the second intron of the cytoplasmic polyadenylation binding protein 3 gene (CPEB3) shows high sequence conservation in mammals, but little is known about the functional conservation of self-cleaving ribozyme activity across the mammalian tree of life or during the course of mammalian evolution. Here, we use a phylogenetic approach to design a mutational library and a deep sequencing assay to evaluate the in vitro self-cleavage activity of numerous extant and resurrected CPEB3 ribozymes that span over 100 My of mammalian evolution. We found that the predicted sequence at the divergence of placentals and marsupials is highly active, and this activity has been conserved in most lineages. A reduction in ribozyme activity appears to have occurred multiple different times throughout the mammalian tree of life. The in vitro activity data allow an evaluation of the predicted mutational pathways leading to extant ribozyme as well as the mutational landscape surrounding these ribozymes. The results demonstrate that in addition to sequence conservation, the self-cleavage activity of the CPEB3 ribozyme has persisted over millions of years of mammalian evolution.

Robustness and predictability of evolution in bottlenecked populations

Deterministic and stochastic evolutionary processes drive adaptation in natural populations. The strength of each component process is determined by the population size: deterministic components prevail in very large populations, while stochastic components are the driving mechanisms in small ones. Many natural populations, however, experience intermittent periods of growth, moving through states in which either stochastic or deterministic processes prevail. This growth is often countered by population bottlenecks, which abound in both natural and laboratory populations. Here we investigate how population bottlenecks shape the process of adaptation. We demonstrate that adaptive trajectories in populations experiencing regular bottlenecks can be naturally scaled in time units of generations; with this scaling the time courses of adaptation, fitness variance, and genetic diversity all become relatively insensitive to the timing of population bottlenecks, provided the bottleneck size exceeds a few thousand individuals. We also include analyses at the genotype level to investigate the impact of population bottlenecks on the predictability and distribution of evolutionary pathways. Irrespective of the timing of population bottlenecks, we find that predictability increases with population size. We also find that predictability of the adaptive pathways increases in increasingly rugged fitness landscapes. Overall, our work reveals that both the adaptation rate and the predictability of evolutionary trajectories are relatively robust to population bottlenecks.

Potential for Applying Continuous Directed Evolution to Plant Enzymes: An Exploratory Study

Plant evolution has produced enzymes that may not be optimal for maximizing yield and quality in today's agricultural environments and plant biotechnology applications. By improving enzyme performance, it should be possible to alleviate constraints on yield and quality currently imposed by kinetic properties or enzyme instability. Enzymes can be optimized more quickly than naturally possible by applying directed evolution, which entails mutating a target gene in vitro and screening or selecting the mutated gene products for the desired characteristics. Continuous directed evolution is a more efficient and scalable version that accomplishes the mutagenesis and selection steps simultaneously in vivo via error-prone replication of the target gene and coupling of the host cell's growth rate to the target gene's function. However, published continuous systems require custom plasmid assembly, and convenient multipurpose platforms are not available. We discuss two systems suitable for continuous directed evolution of enzymes, OrthoRep in Saccharomyces cerevisiae and EvolvR in Escherichia coli, and our pilot efforts to adapt each system for high-throughput plant enzyme engineering. To test our modified systems, we used the thiamin synthesis enzyme THI4, previously identified as a prime candidate for improvement. Our adapted OrthoRep system shows promise for efficient plant enzyme engineering.

Analysis of statistical correlations between properties of adaptive walks in fitness landscapes

The fitness landscape metaphor has been central in our way of thinking about adaptation. In this scenario, adaptive walks are idealized dynamics that mimic the uphill movement of an evolving population towards a fitness peak of the landscape. Recent works in experimental evolution have demonstrated that the constraints imposed by epistasis are responsible for reducing the number of accessible mutational pathways towards fitness peaks. Here, we exhaustively analyse the statistical properties of adaptive walks for two empirical fitness landscapes and theoretical NK landscapes. Some general conclusions can be drawn from our simulation study. Regardless of the dynamics, we observe that the shortest paths are more regularly used. Although the accessibility of a given fitness peak is reasonably correlated to the number of monotonic pathways towards it, the two quantities are not exactly proportional. A negative correlation between predictability and mean path divergence is established, and so the decrease of the number of effective mutational pathways ensures the convergence of the attraction basin of fitness peaks. On the other hand, other features are not conserved among fitness landscapes, such as the relationship between accessibility and predictability.

Phenotypic determinism and contingency in the evolution of hypothetical tree-like organisms

Whether evolutionary history is mostly contingent or deterministic has been given much focus in the field of evolutionary biology. Studies addressing this issue have been conducted theoretically, based on models, and experimentally, based on microcosms. It has been argued that the shape of the adaptive landscape and mutation rate are major determinants of replicated phenotypic evolution. In the present study, to incorporate the effects of phenotypic plasticity, we constructed a model using tree-like organisms. In this model, the basic rules used to develop trees are genetically determined, but tree shape (described by the number and aspect ratio of the branches) is determined by both genetic components and plasticity. The results of the simulation show that the tree shapes become more deterministic under higher mutation rates. However, the tree shape became most contingent and diverse at the lower mutation rate. In this situation, the variances of the genetically determinant characters were low, but the variance of the tree shape is rather high, suggesting that phenotypic plasticity results in this contingency and diversity of tree shape. The present findings suggest that plasticity cannot be ignored as a factor that increases contingency and diversity of evolutionary outcomes.

Modeling genome-wide enzyme evolution predicts strong epistasis underlying catalytic turnover rates

Systems biology describes cellular phenotypes as properties that emerge from the complex interactions of individual system components. Little is known about how these interactions have affected the evolution of metabolic enzymes. Here, we combine genome-scale metabolic modeling with population genetics models to simulate the evolution of enzyme turnover numbers (k_cats) from a theoretical ancestor with inefficient enzymes. This systems view of biochemical evolution reveals strong epistatic interactions between metabolic genes that shape evolutionary trajectories and influence the magnitude of evolved k_cats. Diminishing returns epistasis prevents enzymes from developing higher k_cats in all reactions and keeps the organism far from the potential fitness optimum. Multifunctional enzymes cause synergistic epistasis that slows down adaptation. The resulting fitness landscape allows k_cat evolution to be convergent. Predicted k_cat parameters show a significant correlation with experimental data, validating our modeling approach. Our analysis reveals how evolutionary forces shape modern k_cats and the whole of metabolism.

Contingency and determinism in evolution: Replaying life’s tape

Historical processes display some degree of “contingency,” meaning their outcomes are sensitive to seemingly inconsequential events that can fundamentally change the future. Contingency is what makes historical outcomes unpredictable. Unlike many other natural phenomena, evolution is a historical process. Evolutionary change is often driven by the deterministic force of natural selection, but natural selection works upon variation that arises unpredictably through time by random mutation, and even beneficial mutations can be lost by chance through genetic drift. Moreover, evolution has taken place within a planetary environment with a particular history of its own. This tension between determinism and contingency makes evolutionary biology a kind of hybrid between science and history. While philosophers of science examine the nuances of contingency, biologists have performed many empirical studies of evolutionary repeatability and contingency. Here, we review the experimental and comparative evidence from these studies. Replicate populations in evolutionary “replay” experiments often show parallel changes, especially in overall performance, although idiosyncratic outcomes show that the particulars of a lineage’s history can affect which of several evolutionary paths is taken. Comparative biologists have found many notable examples of convergent adaptation to similar conditions, but quantification of how frequently such convergence occurs is difficult. On balance, the evidence indicates that evolution tends to be surprisingly repeatable among closely related lineages, but disparate outcomes become more likely as the footprint of history grows deeper. Ongoing research on the structure of adaptive landscapes is providing additional insight into the interplay of fate and chance in the evolutionary process.

Long-term evolution on complex fitness landscapes when mutation is weak

Understanding evolution on complex fitness landscapes is difficult both because of the large dimensionality of sequence space and the stochasticity inherent to population-genetic processes. Here, I present an integrated suite of mathematical tools for understanding evolution on time-invariant fitness landscapes when mutations occur sufficiently rarely that the population is typically monomorphic and evolution can be modeled as a sequence of well-separated fixation events. The basic intuition behind this suite of tools is that surrounding any particular genotype lies a region of the fitness landscape that is easy to evolve to, while other pieces of the fitness landscape are difficult to evolve to (due to distance, being across a fitness valley, etc.). I propose a rigorous definition for this "dynamical neighborhood" of a genotype which captures several aspects of the distribution of waiting times to evolve from one genotype to another. The neighborhood structure of the landscape as a whole can be summarized as a matrix, and I show how this matrix can be used to approximate the expected waiting time for certain evolutionary events to occur and to provide an intuitive interpretation to existing formal results on the index of dispersion of the molecular clock.

The fitness landscape of the codon space across environments

Fitness landscapes map the relationship between genotypes and fitness. However, most fitness landscape studies ignore the genetic architecture imposed by the codon table and thereby neglect the potential role of synonymous mutations. To quantify the fitness effects of synonymous mutations and their potential impact on adaptation on a fitness landscape, we use a new software based on Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods and re-estimate selection coefficients of all possible codon mutations across 9 amino acid positions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae Hsp90 across 6 environments. We quantify the distribution of fitness effects of synonymous mutations and show that it is dominated by many mutations of small or no effect and few mutations of larger effect. We then compare the shape of the codon fitness landscape across amino acid positions and environments, and quantify how the consideration of synonymous fitness effects changes the evolutionary dynamics on these fitness landscapes. Together these results highlight a possible role of synonymous mutations in adaptation and indicate the potential mis-inference when they are neglected in fitness landscape studies.

Evolutionary constraints in fitness landscapes

In the last years, several genotypic fitness landscapes-combinations of a small number of mutations-have been experimentally resolved. To learn about the general properties of "real" fitness landscapes, it is key to characterize these experimental landscapes via simple measures of their structure, related to evolutionary features. Some of the most relevant measures are based on the selectively acessible paths and their properties. In this paper, we present some measures of evolutionary constraints based on (i) the similarity between accessible paths and (ii) the abundance and characteristics of "chains" of obligatory mutations, that are paths going through genotypes with a single fitter neighbor. These measures have a clear evolutionary interpretation. Furthermore, we show that chains are only weakly correlated to classical measures of epistasis. In fact, some of these measures of constraint are non-monotonic in the amount of epistatic interactions, but have instead a maximum for intermediate values. Finally, we show how these measures shed light on evolutionary constraints and predictability in experimentally resolved landscapes.

Diminishing-returns epistasis among random beneficial mutations in a multicellular fungus

Adaptive evolution ultimately is fuelled by mutations generating novel genetic variation. Non-additivity of fitness effects of mutations (called epistasis) may affect the dynamics and repeatability of adaptation. However, understanding the importance and implications of epistasis is hampered by the observation of substantial variation in patterns of epistasis across empirical studies. Interestingly, some recent studies report increasingly smaller benefits of beneficial mutations once genotypes become better adapted (called diminishing-returns epistasis) in unicellular microbes and single genes. Here, we use Fisher's geometric model (FGM) to generate analytical predictions about the relationship between the effect size of mutations and the extent of epistasis. We then test these predictions using the multicellular fungus Aspergillus nidulans by generating a collection of 108 strains in either a poor or a rich nutrient environment that each carry a beneficial mutation and constructing pairwise combinations using sexual crosses. Our results support the predictions from FGM and indicate negative epistasis among beneficial mutations in both environments, which scale with mutational effect size. Hence, our findings show the importance of diminishing-returns epistasis among beneficial mutations also for a multicellular organism, and suggest that this pattern reflects a generic constraint operating at diverse levels of biological organization.

Selecting among three basic fitness landscape models: Additive, multiplicative and stickbreaking

Fitness landscapes map genotypes to organismal fitness. Their topographies depend on how mutational effects interact - epistasis - andare important for understanding evolutionary processes such as speciation, the rate of adaptation, the advantage of recombination, and the predictability versus stochasticity of evolution. The growing amount of data has made it possible to better test landscape models empirically. We argue that this endeavor will benefit from the development and use of meaningful basic models against which to compare more complex models. Here we develop statistical and computational methods for fitting fitness data from mutation combinatorial networks to three simple models: additive, multiplicative and stickbreaking. We employ a Bayesian framework for doing model selection. Using simulations, we demonstrate that our methods work and we explore their statistical performance: bias, error, and the power to discriminate among models. We then illustrate our approach and its flexibility by analyzing several previously published datasets. An R-package that implements our methods is available in the CRAN repository under the name Stickbreaker.

Predicting metabolic adaptation from networks of mutational paths

Competition for substrates is a ubiquitous selection pressure faced by microbes, yet intracellular trade-offs can prevent cells from metabolizing every type of available substrate. Adaptive evolution is constrained by these trade-offs, but their consequences for the repeatability and predictability of evolution are unclear. Here we develop an eco-evolutionary model with a metabolic trade-off to generate networks of mutational paths in microbial communities and show that these networks have descriptive and predictive information about the evolution of microbial communities. We find that long-term outcomes, including community collapse, diversity, and cycling, have characteristic evolutionary dynamics that determine the entropy, or repeatability, of mutational paths. Although reliable prediction of evolutionary outcomes from environmental conditions is difficult, graph-theoretic properties of the mutational networks enable accurate prediction even from incomplete observations. In conclusion, we present a novel methodology for analyzing adaptive evolution and report that the dynamics of adaptation are a key variable for predictive success.The structure and dynamics of microbial communities reflect trade-offs in the ability to use different resources. Here, Josephides and Swain incorporate metabolic trade-offs into an eco-evolutionary model to predict networks of mutational paths and the evolutionary outcomes for microbial communities.

Effect of Population Size and Mutation Rate on the Evolution of RNA Sequences on an Adaptive Landscape Determined by RNA Folding

The dynamics of populations evolving on an adaptive landscape depends on multiple factors, including the structure of the landscape, the rate of mutations, and effective population size. Existing theoretical work often makes ad hoc and simplifying assumptions about landscape structure, whereas experimental work can vary important parameters only to a limited extent. We here overcome some of these limitations by simulating the adaptive evolution of RNA molecules, whose fitness is determined by the thermodynamics of RNA secondary structure folding. We study the influence of mutation rates and population sizes on final mean population fitness, on the substitution rates of mutations, and on population diversity. We show that evolutionary dynamics cannot be understood as a function of mutation rate µ, population size N, or population mutation rate Nµ alone. For example, at a given mutation rate, clonal interference prevents the fixation of beneficial mutations as population size increases, but larger populations still arrive at a higher mean fitness. In addition, at the highest population mutation rates we study, mean final fitness increases with population size, because small populations are driven to low fitness by the relatively higher incidence of mutations they experience. Our observations show that mutation rate and population size can interact in complex ways to influence the adaptive dynamics of a population on a biophysically motivated fitness landscape.

Adaptive multiscapes: an up-to-date metaphor to visualize molecular adaptation

Background

Wright’s metaphor of the fitness landscape has shaped and conditioned our view of the adaptation of populations for almost a century. Since its inception, and including criticism raised by Wright himself, the concept has been surrounded by controversy. Among others, the debate stems from the intrinsic difficulty to capture important features of the space of genotypes, such as its high dimensionality or the existence of abundant ridges, in a visually appealing two-dimensional picture. Two additional currently widespread observations come to further constrain the applicability of the original metaphor: the very skewed distribution of phenotype sizes (which may actively prevent, due to entropic effects, the achievement of fitness maxima), and functional promiscuity (i.e. the existence of secondary functions which entail partial adaptation to environments never encountered before by the population).

Results

Here we revise some of the shortcomings of the fitness landscape metaphor and propose a new “scape” formed by interconnected layers, each layer containing the phenotypes viable in a given environment. Different phenotypes within a layer are accessible through mutations with selective value, while neutral mutations cause displacements of populations within a phenotype. A different environment is represented as a separated layer, where phenotypes may have new fitness values, other phenotypes may be viable, and the same genotype may yield a different phenotype, representing genotypic promiscuity. This scenario explicitly includes the many-to-many structure of the genotype-to-phenotype map. A number of empirical observations regarding the adaptation of populations in the light of adaptive multiscapes are reviewed.

Conclusions

Several shortcomings of Wright’s visualization of fitness landscapes can be overcome through adaptive multiscapes. Relevant aspects of population adaptation, such as neutral drift, functional promiscuity or environment-dependent fitness, as well as entropic trapping and the concomitant impossibility to reach fitness peaks are visualized at once. Adaptive multiscapes should aid in the qualitative understanding of the multiple pathways involved in evolutionary dynamics.

Reviewers

This article was reviewed by Eugene Koonin and Ricard Solé.

Evolution of off-lattice model proteins under ligand binding constraints

We investigate protein evolution using an off-lattice polymer model evolved to imitate the behavior of small enzymes. Model proteins evolve through mutations to nucleotide sequences (including insertions and deletions) and are selected to fold and maintain a specific binding site compatible with a model ligand. We show that this requirement is, in itself, sufficient to maintain an ordered folding domain, and we compare it to the requirement of folding an ordered (but otherwise unrestricted) domain. We measure rates of amino acid change as a function of local environment properties such as solvent exposure, packing density, and distance from the active site, as well as overall rates of sequence and structure change, both along and among model lineages in star phylogenies. The model recapitulates essentially all of the behavior found in protein phylogenetic analyses, and predicts that amino acid substitution rates vary linearly with distance from the binding site.

How Good Are Statistical Models at Approximating Complex Fitness Landscapes?

Fitness landscapes determine the course of adaptation by constraining and shaping evolutionary trajectories. Knowledge of the structure of a fitness landscape can thus predict evolutionary outcomes. Empirical fitness landscapes, however, have so far only offered limited insight into real-world questions, as the high dimensionality of sequence spaces makes it impossible to exhaustively measure the fitness of all variants of biologically meaningful sequences. We must therefore revert to statistical descriptions of fitness landscapes that are based on a sparse sample of fitness measurements. It remains unclear, however, how much data are required for such statistical descriptions to be useful. Here, we assess the ability of regression models accounting for single and pairwise mutations to correctly approximate a complex quasi-empirical fitness landscape. We compare approximations based on various sampling regimes of an RNA landscape and find that the sampling regime strongly influences the quality of the regression. On the one hand it is generally impossible to generate sufficient samples to achieve a good approximation of the complete fitness landscape, and on the other hand systematic sampling schemes can only provide a good description of the immediate neighborhood of a sequence of interest. Nevertheless, we obtain a remarkably good and unbiased fit to the local landscape when using sequences from a population that has evolved under strong selection. Thus, current statistical methods can provide a good approximation to the landscape of naturally evolving populations.

Monotonicity of fitness landscapes and mutation rate control

A common view in evolutionary biology is that mutation rates are minimised. However, studies in combinatorial optimisation and search have shown a clear advantage of using variable mutation rates as a control parameter to optimise the performance of evolutionary algorithms. Much biological theory in this area is based on Ronald Fisher’s work, who used Euclidean geometry to study the relation between mutation size and expected fitness of the offspring in infinite phenotypic spaces. Here we reconsider this theory based on the alternative geometry of discrete and finite spaces of DNA sequences. First, we consider the geometric case of fitness being isomorphic to distance from an optimum, and show how problems of optimal mutation rate control can be solved exactly or approximately depending on additional constraints of the problem. Then we consider the general case of fitness communicating only partial information about the distance. We define weak monotonicity of fitness landscapes and prove that this property holds in all landscapes that are continuous and open at the optimum. This theoretical result motivates our hypothesis that optimal mutation rate functions in such landscapes will increase when fitness decreases in some neighbourhood of an optimum, resembling the control functions derived in the geometric case. We test this hypothesis experimentally by analysing approximately optimal mutation rate control functions in 115 complete landscapes of binding scores between DNA sequences and transcription factors. Our findings support the hypothesis and find that the increase of mutation rate is more rapid in landscapes that are less monotonic (more rugged). We discuss the relevance of these findings to living organisms.

Biophysical principles predict fitness landscapes of drug resistance

Fitness landscapes of drug resistance constitute powerful tools to elucidate mutational pathways of antibiotic escape. Here, we developed a predictive biophysics-based fitness landscape of trimethoprim (TMP) resistance for Escherichia coli dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR). We investigated the activity, binding, folding stability, and intracellular abundance for a complete set of combinatorial DHFR mutants made out of three key resistance mutations and extended this analysis to DHFR originated from Chlamydia muridarum and Listeria grayi We found that the acquisition of TMP resistance via decreased drug affinity is limited by a trade-off in catalytic efficiency. Protein stability is concurrently affected by the resistant mutants, which precludes a precise description of fitness from a single molecular trait. Application of the kinetic flux theory provided an accurate model to predict resistance phenotypes (IC50) quantitatively from a unique combination of the in vitro protein molecular properties. Further, we found that a controlled modulation of the GroEL/ES chaperonins and Lon protease levels affects the intracellular steady-state concentration of DHFR in a mutation-specific manner, whereas IC50 is changed proportionally, as indeed predicted by the model. This unveils a molecular rationale for the pleiotropic role of the protein quality control machinery on the evolution of antibiotic resistance, which, as we illustrate here, may drastically confound the evolutionary outcome. These results provide a comprehensive quantitative genotype-phenotype map for the essential enzyme that serves as an important target of antibiotic and anticancer therapies.

How Complex, Probable, and Predictable is Genetically Driven Red Queen Chaos?

Coevolution between two antagonistic species has been widely studied theoretically for both ecologically- and genetically-driven Red Queen dynamics. A typical outcome of these systems is an oscillatory behavior causing an endless series of one species adaptation and others counter-adaptation. More recently, a mathematical model combining a three-species food chain system with an adaptive dynamics approach revealed genetically driven chaotic Red Queen coevolution. In the present article, we analyze this mathematical model mainly focusing on the impact of species rates of evolution (mutation rates) in the dynamics. Firstly, we analytically proof the boundedness of the trajectories of the chaotic attractor. The complexity of the coupling between the dynamical variables is quantified using observability indices. By using symbolic dynamics theory, we quantify the complexity of genetically driven Red Queen chaos computing the topological entropy of existing one-dimensional iterated maps using Markov partitions. Co-dimensional two bifurcation diagrams are also built from the period ordering of the orbits of the maps. Then, we study the predictability of the Red Queen chaos, found in narrow regions of mutation rates. To extend the previous analyses, we also computed the likeliness of finding chaos in a given region of the parameter space varying other model parameters simultaneously. Such analyses allowed us to compute a mean predictability measure for the system in the explored region of the parameter space. We found that genetically driven Red Queen chaos, although being restricted to small regions of the analyzed parameter space, might be highly unpredictable.

Genomic Scans of Zygotic Disequilibrium and Epistatic SNPs in HapMap Phase III Populations

Previous theory indicates that zygotic linkage disequilibrium (LD) is more informative than gametic or composite digenic LD in revealing natural population history. Further, the difference between the composite digenic and maximum zygotic LDs can be used to detect epistatic selection for fitness. Here we corroborate the theory by investigating genome-wide zygotic LDs in HapMap phase III human populations. Results show that non-Africa populations have much more significant zygotic LDs than do Africa populations. Africa populations (ASW, LWK, MKK, and YRI) possess more significant zygotic LDs for the double-homozygotes (D_AABB) than any other significant zygotic LDs (D_AABb, D_AaBB, and D_AaBb), while non-Africa populations generally have more significant D_AaBb’s than any other significant zygotic LDs (D_AABB, D_AABb, and D_AaBB). Average r-squares for any significant zygotic LDs increase generally in an order of populations YRI, MKK, CEU, CHB, LWK, JPT, CHD, TSI, GIH, ASW, and MEX. Average r-squares are greater for D_AABB and D_AaBb than for D_AaBB and D_AABb in each population. YRI and MKK can be separated from LWK and ASW in terms of the pattern of average r-squares. All population divergences in zygotic LDs can be interpreted with the model of Out of Africa for modern human origins. We have also detected 19735-95921 SNP pairs exhibiting strong signals of epistatic selection in different populations. Gene-gene interactions for some epistatic SNP pairs are evident from empirical findings, but many more epistatic SNP pairs await evidence. Common epistatic SNP pairs rarely exist among all populations, but exist in distinct regions (Africa, Europe, and East Asia), which helps to understand geographical genomic medicine.

Scaling properties of evolutionary paths in a biophysical model of protein adaptation

The enormous size and complexity of genotypic sequence space frequently requires consideration of coarse-grained sequences in empirical models. We develop scaling relations to quantify the effect of this coarse-graining on properties of fitness landscapes and evolutionary paths. We first consider evolution on a simple Mount Fuji fitness landscape, focusing on how the length and predictability of evolutionary paths scale with the coarse-grained sequence length and alphabet. We obtain simple scaling relations for both the weak- and strong-selection limits, with a non-trivial crossover regime at intermediate selection strengths. We apply these results to evolution on a biophysical fitness landscape that describes how proteins evolve new binding interactions while maintaining their folding stability. We combine the scaling relations with numerical calculations for coarse-grained protein sequences to obtain quantitative properties of the model for realistic binding interfaces and a full amino acid alphabet.

Evolution of RNA-Based Networks

RNA molecules have served for decades as a paradigmatic example of molecular evolution that is tractable both in in vitro experiments and in detailed computer simulation. The adaptation of RNA sequences to external selection pressures is well studied and well understood. The de novo innovation or optimization of RNA aptamers and riboswitches in SELEX experiments serves as a case in point. Likewise, fitness landscapes building upon the efficiently computable RNA secondary structures have been a key toward understanding realistic fitness landscapes. Much less is known, however, on models in which multiple RNAs interact with each other, thus actively influencing the selection pressures acting on them. From a computational perspective, RNA-RNA interactions can be dealt with by same basic methods as the folding of a single RNA molecule, although many details become more complicated. RNA-RNA interactions are frequently employed in cellular regulation networks, e.g., as miRNA bases mRNA silencing or in the modulation of bacterial mRNAs by small, often highly structured sRNAs. In this chapter, we summarize the key features of networks of replicators. We highlight the differences between quasispecies-like models describing templates copied by an external replicase and hypercycle similar to autocatalytic replicators. Two aspects are of importance: the dynamics of selection within a population, usually described by conventional dynamical systems, and the evolution of replicating species in the space of chemical types. Product inhibition plays a key role in modulating selection dynamics from survival of the fittest to extinction of unfittest. The sequence evolution of replicators is rather well understood as approximate optimization in a fitness landscape for templates that is shaped by the sequence-structure map of RNA. Some of the properties of this map, in particular shape space covering and extensive neutral networks, give rise to evolutionary patterns such as drift-like motion in sequence space, akin to the behavior of RNA quasispecies. In contrast, very little is known about the influence of sequence-structure maps on autocatalytic replication systems.

Structural evolution of proteinlike heteropolymers

The biological function of a protein often depends on the formation of an ordered structure in order to support a smaller, chemically active configuration of amino acids against thermal fluctuations. Here we explore the development of proteins evolving to satisfy this requirement using an off-lattice polymer model in which monomers interact as low resolution amino acids. To evolve the model, we construct a Markov process in which sequences are subjected to random replacements, insertions, and deletions and are selected to recover a predefined minimum number of solid-ordered monomers using the Lindemann melting criterion. We show that polymers generated by this process consistently fold into soluble, ordered globules of similar length and complexity to small protein motifs. To compare the evolution of the globules with proteins, we analyze the statistics of amino acid replacements, the dependence of site mutation rates on solvent exposure, and the dependence of structural distance on sequence distance for homologous alignments. Despite the simplicity of the model, the results display a surprisingly close correspondence with protein data.

Adaptation in tunably rugged fitness landscapes: the rough Mount Fuji model

Much of the current theory of adaptation is based on Gillespie's mutational landscape model (MLM), which assumes that the fitness values of genotypes linked by single mutational steps are independent random variables. On the other hand, a growing body of empirical evidence shows that real fitness landscapes, while possessing a considerable amount of ruggedness, are smoother than predicted by the MLM. In the present article we propose and analyze a simple fitness landscape model with tunable ruggedness based on the rough Mount Fuji (RMF) model originally introduced by Aita et al. in the context of protein evolution. We provide a comprehensive collection of results pertaining to the topographical structure of RMF landscapes, including explicit formulas for the expected number of local fitness maxima, the location of the global peak, and the fitness correlation function. The statistics of single and multiple adaptive steps on the RMF landscape are explored mainly through simulations, and the results are compared to the known behavior in the MLM model. Finally, we show that the RMF model can explain the large number of second-step mutations observed on a highly fit first-step background in a recent evolution experiment with a microvirid bacteriophage.

Empirical fitness landscapes and the predictability of evolution

The genotype-fitness map (that is, the fitness landscape) is a key determinant of evolution, yet it has mostly been used as a superficial metaphor because we know little about its structure. This is now changing, as real fitness landscapes are being analysed by constructing genotypes with all possible combinations of small sets of mutations observed in phylogenies or in evolution experiments. In turn, these first glimpses of empirical fitness landscapes inspire theoretical analyses of the predictability of evolution. Here, we review these recent empirical and theoretical developments, identify methodological issues and organizing principles, and discuss possibilities to develop more realistic fitness landscape models.

Inferring fitness landscapes by regression produces biased estimates of epistasis

The genotype-fitness map plays a fundamental role in shaping the dynamics of evolution. However, it is difficult to directly measure a fitness landscape in practice, because the number of possible genotypes is astronomical. One approach is to sample as many genotypes as possible, measure their fitnesses, and fit a statistical model of the landscape that includes additive and pairwise interactive effects between loci. Here, we elucidate the pitfalls of using such regressions by studying artificial but mathematically convenient fitness landscapes. We identify two sources of bias inherent in these regression procedures, each of which tends to underestimate high fitnesses and overestimate low fitnesses. We characterize these biases for random sampling of genotypes as well as samples drawn from a population under selection in the Wright-Fisher model of evolutionary dynamics. We show that common measures of epistasis, such as the number of monotonically increasing paths between ancestral and derived genotypes, the prevalence of sign epistasis, and the number of local fitness maxima, are distorted in the inferred landscape. As a result, the inferred landscape will provide systematically biased predictions for the dynamics of adaptation. We identify the same biases in a computational RNA-folding landscape as well as regulatory sequence binding data treated with the same fitting procedure. Finally, we present a method to ameliorate these biases in some cases.

Realistic three dimensional fitness landscapes generated by self organizing maps for the analysis of experimental HIV-1 evolution

Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) because of high mutation rates, large population sizes, and rapid replication, exhibits complex evolutionary strategies. For the analysis of evolutionary processes, the graphical representation of fitness landscapes provides a significant advantage. The experimental determination of viral fitness remains, in general, difficult and consequently most published fitness landscapes have been artificial, theoretical or estimated. Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) are a class of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for the generation of topological ordered maps. Here, three-dimensional (3D) data driven fitness landscapes, derived from a collection of sequences from HIV-1 viruses after “in vitro” passages and labelled with the corresponding experimental fitness values, were created by SOM. These maps were used for the visualization and study of the evolutionary process of HIV-1 “in vitro” fitness recovery, by directly relating fitness values with viral sequences. In addition to the representation of the sequence space search carried out by the viruses, these landscapes could also be applied for the analysis of related variants like members of viral quasiespecies. SOM maps permit the visualization of the complex evolutionary pathways in HIV-1 fitness recovery. SOM fitness landscapes have an enormous potential for the study of evolution in related viruses of “in vitro” works or from “in vivo” clinical studies with human, animal or plant viral infections.

The reproducibility of adaptation in the light of experimental evolution with whole genome sequencing

A key question in evolutionary biology is the reproducibility of adaptation. This question can now be quantitatively analyzed using experimental evolution coupled to whole genome sequencing (WGS). With complete sequence data, one can assess convergence among replicate populations. In turn, convergence reflects the action of natural selection and also the breadth of the field of possible adaptive solutions. That is, it provides insight into how many genetic solutions or adaptive paths may lead to adaptation in a given environment. Convergence is both a property of an adaptive landscape and, reciprocally, a tool to study that landscape. In this chapter we present the links between convergence and the properties of adaptive landscapes with respect to two types of microbial experimental evolution. The first tries to reconstruct a full adaptive landscape using a handful of carefully identified mutations (the reductionist approach), while the second uses WGS of replicate experiments to infer properties of the adaptive landscape. Reductionist approaches have highlighted the importance of epistasis in shaping the adaptive landscape, but have also uncovered a wide diversity of landscape architectures. The WGS approach has uncovered a very high diversity of beneficial mutations that affect a limited set of genes or functions and also suggests some shortcomings of the reductionist approach. We conclude that convergence may be better defined at an integrated level, such as the genic level or even at a phenotypic level, and that integrated mechanistic models derived from systems biology may offer an interesting perspective for the analysis of convergence at all levels.

Phenotypic landscape inference reveals multiple evolutionary paths to C4 photosynthesis

C4 photosynthesis has independently evolved from the ancestral C3 pathway in at least 60 plant lineages, but, as with other complex traits, how it evolved is unclear. Here we show that the polyphyletic appearance of C4 photosynthesis is associated with diverse and flexible evolutionary paths that group into four major trajectories. We conducted a meta-analysis of 18 lineages containing species that use C3, C4, or intermediate C3-C4 forms of photosynthesis to parameterise a 16-dimensional phenotypic landscape. We then developed and experimentally verified a novel Bayesian approach based on a hidden Markov model that predicts how the C4 phenotype evolved. The alternative evolutionary histories underlying the appearance of C4 photosynthesis were determined by ancestral lineage and initial phenotypic alterations unrelated to photosynthesis. We conclude that the order of C4 trait acquisition is flexible and driven by non-photosynthetic drivers. This flexibility will have facilitated the convergent evolution of this complex trait. DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00961.001.

Shining fresh light on the evolution of photosynthesis

There are two types of photosynthesis, C3 and C4, and computational techniques have been used to explore how C4 plants evolved from their C3 ancestors.

Phenotypic landscape inference reveals multiple evolutionary paths to C4 photosynthesis

C4 photosynthesis has independently evolved from the ancestral C3 pathway in at least 60 plant lineages, but, as with other complex traits, how it evolved is unclear. Here we show that the polyphyletic appearance of C4 photosynthesis is associated with diverse and flexible evolutionary paths that group into four major trajectories. We conducted a meta-analysis of 18 lineages containing species that use C3, C4, or intermediate C3-C4 forms of photosynthesis to parameterise a 16-dimensional phenotypic landscape. We then developed and experimentally verified a novel Bayesian approach based on a hidden Markov model that predicts how the C4 phenotype evolved. The alternative evolutionary histories underlying the appearance of C4 photosynthesis were determined by ancestral lineage and initial phenotypic alterations unrelated to photosynthesis. We conclude that the order of C4 trait acquisition is flexible and driven by non-photosynthetic drivers. This flexibility will have facilitated the convergent evolution of this complex trait. DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00961.001.

Path-based approach to random walks on networks characterizes how proteins evolve new functions

We develop a path-based approach to continuous-time random walks on networks with arbitrarily weighted edges. We describe an efficient numerical algorithm for calculating statistical properties of the stochastic path ensemble. After demonstrating our approach on two reaction rate problems, we present a biophysical model that describes how proteins evolve new functions while maintaining thermodynamic stability. We use our methodology to characterize dynamics of evolutionary adaptation, reproducing several key features observed in directed evolution experiments. We find that proteins generally fall into two qualitatively different regimes of adaptation depending on their binding and folding energetics.

Modeling catalytic promiscuity in the alkaline phosphatase superfamily

In recent years, it has become increasingly clear that promiscuity plays a key role in the evolution of new enzyme function. This finding has helped to elucidate fundamental aspects of molecular evolution. While there has been extensive experimental work on enzyme promiscuity, computational modeling of the chemical details of such promiscuity has traditionally fallen behind the advances in experimental studies, not least due to the nearly prohibitive computational cost involved in examining multiple substrates with multiple potential mechanisms and binding modes in atomic detail with a reasonable degree of accuracy. However, recent advances in both computational methodologies and power have allowed us to reach a stage in the field where we can start to overcome this problem, and molecular simulations can now provide accurate and efficient descriptions of complex biological systems with substantially less computational cost. This has led to significant advances in our understanding of enzyme function and evolution in a broader sense. Here, we will discuss currently available computational approaches that can allow us to probe the underlying molecular basis for enzyme specificity and selectivity, discussing the inherent strengths and weaknesses of each approach. As a case study, we will discuss recent computational work on different members of the alkaline phosphatase superfamily (AP) using a range of different approaches, showing the complementary insights they have provided. We have selected this particular superfamily, as it poses a number of significant challenges for theory, ranging from the complexity of the actual reaction mechanisms involved to the reliable modeling of the catalytic metal centers, as well as the very large system sizes. We will demonstrate that, through current advances in methodologies, computational tools can provide significant insight into the molecular basis for catalytic promiscuity, and, therefore, in turn, the mechanisms of protein functional evolution.

Patterns of Epistasis between beneficial mutations in an antibiotic resistance gene

Understanding epistasis is central to biology. For instance, epistatic interactions determine the topography of the fitness landscape and affect the dynamics and determinism of adaptation. However, few empirical data are available, and comparing results is complicated by confounding variation in the system and the type of mutations used. Here, we take a systematic approach by quantifying epistasis in two sets of four beneficial mutations in the antibiotic resistance enzyme TEM-1 β-lactamase. Mutations in these sets have either large or small effects on cefotaxime resistance when present as single mutations. By quantifying the epistasis and ruggedness in both landscapes, we find two general patterns. First, resistance is maximal for combinations of two mutations in both fitness landscapes and declines when more mutations are added due to abundant sign epistasis and a pattern of diminishing returns with genotype resistance. Second, large-effect mutations interact more strongly than small-effect mutations, suggesting that the effect size of mutations may be an organizing principle in understanding patterns of epistasis. By fitting the data to simple phenotype resistance models, we show that this pattern may be explained by the nonlinear dependence of resistance on enzyme stability and an unknown phenotype when mutations have antagonistically pleiotropic effects. The comparison to a previously published set of mutations in the same gene with a joint benefit further shows that the enzyme's fitness landscape is locally rugged but does contain adaptive pathways that lead to high resistance.

On the findability of genotypes

Can we define a measure that describes how easy or difficult it is for a population to evolve to a specific genotype? For populations evolving under weak mutation on a time-invariant fitness landscape, I argue that one appropriate measure is the expected waiting time, starting from equilibrium, for a population to become fixed for a given genotype. Under this definition for the "findability" of genotypes, I show that for any pair of genotypes (1) a population at equilibrium is always more likely to fix at the more findable before the less findable genotype and (2) the expected time to evolve from the more findable to the less findable genotype is always greater that the expected time to evolve in the opposite direction. Although increasing the fitness of a genotype always increases its findability, in general there is no simple relationship between the rank ordering of genotypes by fitness and the rank ordering of genotypes by findability. I also present a method for quantifying the relative contributions of mutation, selection, substitution rate, and probability of reversion to a genotype's findability.

Quantifying the similarity of monotonic trajectories in rough and smooth fitness landscapes

When selection is strong and mutations are rare, evolution can be thought of as an uphill trajectory in a rugged fitness landscape. In this context the fitness landscape is a directed acyclic graph in which nodes are genotypes and edges lead from lower to higher fitness genotypes that differ by a single mutation. Because the space of genotypes is vastly multi-dimensional, classification of fitness landscapes is challenging. Many proposed summary characteristics of fitness landscapes attempt to quantify biologically relevant and intuitive notions such as roughness or peak accessibility in alternative ways. Here we explore, in different types of landscapes, the behavior of the recently introduced mean path divergence which quantifies the degree of similarity among evolutionary trajectories with the same endpoints. We find that monotonic trajectories in empirical and model fitness landscapes are significantly more constrained, with low median path divergence, than those in purely additive landscapes. By contrast, transcription factor sequence specificity (aptamer binding affinity) landscapes are markedly smoother and allow substantial variability in monotonic paths that can be greater than that in fully additive landscapes. We propose that the smoothness of the specificity landscapes is a consequence of the simple dependence of the transcription factor binding affinity on the aptamer sequence in contrast to the complex sequence-fitness mapping in folding landscapes.

Predictability of evolution depends nonmonotonically on population size

To gauge the relative importance of contingency and determinism in evolution is a fundamental problem that continues to motivate much theoretical and empirical research. In recent evolution experiments with microbes, this question has been explored by monitoring the repeatability of adaptive changes in replicate populations. Here, we present the results of an extensive computational study of evolutionary predictability based on an experimentally measured eight-locus fitness landscape for the filamentous fungus Aspergillus niger. To quantify predictability, we define entropy measures on observed mutational trajectories and endpoints. In contrast to the common expectation of increasingly deterministic evolution in large populations, we find that these entropies display an initial decrease and a subsequent increase with population size N, governed, respectively, by the scales Nμ and Nμ(2), corresponding to the supply rates of single and double mutations, where μ denotes the mutation rate. The amplitude of this pattern is determined by μ. We show that these observations are generic by comparing our findings for the experimental fitness landscape to simulations on simple model landscapes.