Modeling HIV-1 infection in the brain

Differences in drug resistance of HIV-1 genotypes in CSF and plasma and analysis of related factors

The emergence of HIV drug resistance seriously affects the quality of life of patients. However, there has been no extensive study of CSF resistance. The aim of this study is to evaluate common HIV-1 resistance in CSF and compare it with resistance in matched plasma, and analyse the influencing factors of cerebrospinal fluid drug resistance. The matched CSF and plasma samples of 62 HIV-1 patients were tested at one study site in China (Chongqing; 2019-2022). HIV genotyping and drug resistance was evaluated using the Stanford v8.7 algorithm. The diagnosis and treatment data and basic information were collected from the clinical case system, and the influencing factors of drug resistance mutations in CSF was obtained by variance analysis. CSF and matched plasma HIV-1 subtypes were confirmed in 62 patients, and the most frequent recombinant form was CRF07-BC (64.5%). Thirteen patients (21.0%) were detected with drug-resistant mutations, and the sites were consistent in both CSF and matched plasma. The drug-resistant ratios of untreated patients and treated patients were 5/51 (9.8%) and 8/11 (72.7%), respectively. The type with the highest mutation frequency was NNRTI, and no mutation was found in INSTI. Multivariate analysis indicated that ARV treatment was associated with CSF resistance (P < 0.001). The subtypes and drug resistance mutation sites are consistent in CSF and matched plasma samples of HIV-1 patients, and there is a correlation between ARV treatment and possible drug resistance, especially in CSF reservoirs. These findings highlight the concern about CSF drug resistance in HIV patients.

Modeling Antiretrovial Treatment to Mitigate HIV in the Brain: Impact of the Blood-Brain Barrier

Current research in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) focuses on eradicating virus reservoirs that prevent or dampen the effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART). One such reservoir, the brain, reduces treatment efficacy via the blood-brain barrier (BBB), causing an obstacle to drug penetration into the brain. In this study, we develop a mathematical model to examine the impact of the BBB on ART effectiveness for mitigating brain HIV. A thorough analysis of the model allowed us to fully characterize the global threshold dynamics with the viral clearance and persistence in the brain for the basic reproduction number less than unity and greater than unity, respectively. Our model showed that the BBB has a significant role in inhibiting the effect of ART within the brain despite the effective viral load suppression in the plasma. The level of impact, however, depends on factors such as the CNS Penetration Effectiveness (CPE) score, the slope of the drug dose-response curves, the ART initiation timing, and the number of drugs in the ART protocol. These results suggest that reducing the plasma viral load to undetectable levels due to some drug regimen may not necessarily indicate undetectable levels of HIV in the brain. Thus, the effect of the BBB on viral suppression in the brain must be considered for developing proper treatment protocols against HIV infection.

The transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics: Its aims, assumptions and limitations

Most of the progress in the development of single scale mathematical and computational models for the study of infectious disease dynamics which now span over a century is build on a body of knowledge that has been developed to address particular single scale descriptions of infectious disease dynamics based on understanding disease transmission process. Although this single scale understanding of infectious disease dynamics is now founded on a body of knowledge with a long history, dating back to over a century now, that knowledge has not yet been formalized into a scientific theory. In this article, we formalize this accumulated body of knowledge into a scientific theory called the transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics which states that at every scale of organization of an infectious disease system, disease dynamics is determined by transmission as the main dynamic disease process. Therefore, the transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics can be seen as formalizing knowledge that has been inherent in the study of infectious disease dynamics using single scale mathematical and computational models for over a century now. The objective of this article is to summarize this existing knowledge about single scale modelling of infectious dynamics by means of a scientific theory called the transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics and highlight its aims, assumptions and limitations.

Predator-Prey Dynamics of Intra-Host Simian Immunodeficiency Virus Evolution Within the Untreated Host

The dynamic nature of the SIV population during disease progression in the SIV/macaque model of AIDS and the factors responsible for its behavior have not been documented, largely owing to the lack of sufficient spatial and temporal sampling of both viral and host data from SIV-infected animals. In this study, we detail Bayesian coalescent inference of the changing collective intra-host viral effective population size (N_e ) from various tissues over the course of infection and its relationship with what we demonstrate is a continuously changing immune cell repertoire within the blood. Although the relative contribution of these factors varied among hosts and time points, the adaptive immune response best explained the overall periodic dynamic behavior of the effective virus population. Data exposing the nature of the relationship between the virus and immune cell populations revealed the plausibility of an eco-evolutionary mathematical model, which was able to mimic the large-scale oscillations in N_e through virus escape from relatively few, early immunodominant responses, followed by slower escape from several subdominant and weakened immune populations. The results of this study suggest that SIV diversity within the untreated host is governed by a predator-prey relationship, wherein differing phases of infection are the result of adaptation in response to varying immune responses. Previous investigations into viral population dynamics using sequence data have focused on single estimates of the effective viral population size (N_e ) or point estimates over sparse sampling data to provide insight into the precise impact of immune selection on virus adaptive behavior. Herein, we describe the use of the coalescent phylogenetic frame- work to estimate the relative changes in N_e over time in order to quantify the relationship with empirical data on the dynamic immune composition of the host. This relationship has allowed us to expand on earlier simulations to build a predator-prey model that explains the deterministic behavior of the virus over the course of disease progression. We show that sequential viral adaptation can occur in response to phases of varying immune pressure, providing a broader picture of the viral response throughout the entire course of progression to AIDS.

The unfolding palette of COVID-19 multisystemic syndrome and its neurological manifestations

Although our current knowledge of the pathophysiology of COVID-19 is still fragmentary, the information so far accrued on the tropism and life cycle of its etiological agent SARS-CoV-2, together with the emerging clinical data, suffice to indicate that the severe acute pulmonary syndrome is the main, but not the only manifestation of COVID-19. Necropsy studies are increasingly revealing underlying endothelial vasculopathies in the form of micro-haemorrhages and micro-thrombi. Intertwined with defective antiviral responses, dysregulated coagulation mechanisms, abnormal hyper-inflammatory reactions and responses, COVID-19 is disclosing a wide pathophysiological palette. An additional property in categorising the disease is the combination of tissue (e.g. neuro- and vasculo-tropism) with organ tropism, whereby the virus preferentially attacks certain organs with highly developed capillary beds, such as the lungs, gastrointestinal tract, kidney and brain. These multiple clinical presentations confirm that the acute respiratory syndrome as described initially is increasingly unfolding as a more complex nosological entity, a multiorgan syndrome of systemic breadth. The neurological manifestations of COVID-19, the focus of this review, reflect this manifold nature of the disease.

Modeling transmission dynamics of rabies in Nepal

Even though vaccines against rabies are available, rabies still remains a burden killing a significant number of humans as well as domestic and wild animals in many parts of the world, including Nepal. In this study, we develop a mathematical model to describe transmission dynamics of rabies in Nepal. In particular, an indirect interspecies transmission from jackals to humans through dogs, which is relevant to the context of Nepal, is one of the novel features of our model. Our model utilizes annual dog-bite data collected from Nepal for a decade long period, allowing us to reasonably estimate parameters related to rabies transmission in Nepal. Using our model, we calculated the basic reproduction number ( R 0 = 1.16 ) as well as intraspecies basic reproduction numbers of dogs ( R 0 D = 1.14 ) and jackals ( R 0 J = 0.07 ) for Nepal, and identified that the dog-related parameters are primary contributors to R 0 . Our results show that, along with dogs, jackals may also play an important role, albeit lesser extent, in the persistence of rabies in Nepal. Our model also suggests that control strategies may help reduce the prevalence significantly but the jackal vaccination may not be as effective as dog-related preventive strategies. To get deeper insight into the role of intraspecies and interspecies transmission between dog and jackal populations in the persistence of rabies, we also extended our model analysis into a wider parameter range. Interestingly, for some feasible parameters, even though rabies is theoretically controlled in each dog and jackal populations ( R 0 D < 1 , R 0 J < 1 ) if isolated, the rabies epidemic may still occur ( R 0 > 1 ) due to interspecies transmission. These results may be useful to design effective prevention and control strategies for mitigating rabies burden in Nepal and other parts of the world.