Estimating individuals' genetic and non-genetic effects underlying infectious disease transmission from temporal epidemic data

Genetics and Genomics of Infectious Diseases in Key Aquaculture Species

Diseases pose a significant and pressing concern for the sustainable development of the aquaculture sector, particularly as their impact continues to grow due to climatic shifts such as rising water temperatures. While various approaches, ranging from biosecurity measures to vaccines, have been devised to combat infectious diseases, their efficacy is disease and species specific and contingent upon a multitude of factors. The fields of genetics and genomics offer effective tools to control and prevent disease outbreaks in aquatic animal species. In this study, we present the key findings from our recent research, focusing on the genetic resistance to three specific diseases: White Spot Syndrome Virus (WSSV) in white shrimp, Bacterial Necrotic Pancreatitis (BNP) in striped catfish, and skin fluke (a parasitic ailment) in yellowtail kingfish. Our investigations reveal that all three species possess substantial heritable genetic components for disease-resistant traits, indicating their potential responsiveness to artificial selection in genetic improvement programs tailored to combat these diseases. Also, we observed a high genetic association between disease traits and survival rates. Through selective breeding aimed at enhancing resistance to these pathogens, we achieved substantial genetic gains, averaging 10% per generation. These selection programs also contributed positively to the overall production performance and productivity of these species. Although the effects of selection on immunological traits or immune responses were not significant in white shrimp, they yielded favorable results in striped catfish. Furthermore, our genomic analyses, including shallow genome sequencing of pedigreed populations, enriched our understanding of the genomic architecture underlying disease resistance traits. These traits are primarily governed by a polygenic nature, with numerous genes or genetic variants, each with small effects. Leveraging a range of advanced statistical methods, from mixed models to machine and deep learning, we developed prediction models that demonstrated moderate-to-high levels of accuracy in forecasting these disease-related traits. In addition to genomics, our RNA-seq experiments identified several genes that undergo upregulation in response to infection or viral loads within the populations. Preliminary microbiome data, while offering limited predictive accuracy for disease traits in one of our studied species, underscore the potential for combining such data with genome sequence information to enhance predictive power for disease traits in our populations. Lastly, this paper briefly discusses the roles of precision agriculture systems and AI algorithms and outlines the path for future research to expedite the development of disease-resistant genetic lines tailored to our target species. In conclusion, our study underscores the critical role of genetics and genomics in fortifying the aquaculture sector against the threats posed by diseases, paving the way for more sustainable and resilient aquaculture development.

The WUR0000125 PRRS resilience SNP had no apparent effect on pigs' infectivity and susceptibility in a novel transmission trial

BACKGROUND

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) remains one of the most important infectious diseases for the pig industry. A novel small-scale transmission experiment was designed to assess whether the WUR0000125 (WUR for Wageningen University and Research) PRRS resilience single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) confers lower susceptibility and infectivity to pigs under natural porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV-2) transmission.

METHODS

Commercial full- and half-sib piglets (n = 164) were assigned as either Inoculation, Shedder, or Contact pigs. Pigs were grouped according to their relatedness structure and WUR genotype, with R- and R+ referring to pigs with zero and one copy of the dominant WUR resilience allele, respectively. Barcoding of the PRRSV-2 strain (SD09-200) was applied to track pig genotype-specific transmission. Blood and nasal swab samples were collected and concentrations of PRRSV-2 were determined by quantitative (q)-PCR and cell culture and expressed in units of median tissue culture infectious dose (TCID₅₀). The Log₁₀TCID₅₀ at each sampling event, derived infection status, and area under the curve (AUC) were response variables in linear and generalized linear mixed models to infer WUR genotype differences in Contact pig susceptibility and Shedder pig infectivity.

RESULTS

All Shedder and Contact pigs, except one, became infected through natural transmission. There was no significant (p > 0.05) effect of Contact pig genotype on any virus measures that would indicate WUR genotype differences in susceptibility. Contact pigs tended to have higher serum AUC (p = 0.017) and log₁₀TCID₅₀ (p = 0.034) when infected by an R+ shedder, potentially due to more infectious R+ shedders at the early stages of the transmission trial. However, no significant Shedder genotype effect was found in serum (p = 0.274) or nasal secretion (p = 0.951) that would indicate genotype differences in infectivity.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel design demonstrated that it is possible to estimate genotype effects on Shedder pig infectivity and Contact pig susceptibility that are not confounded by family effects. The study, however, provided no supportive evidence that genetic selection on WUR genotype would affect PRRSV-2 transmission. The results of this study need to be independently validated in a larger trial using different PRRSV strains before dismissing the effects of the WUR marker or the previously detected GBP5 gene on PRRSV transmission.

Optimal experimental designs for estimating genetic and non-genetic effects underlying infectious disease transmission

BACKGROUND

The spread of infectious diseases in populations is controlled by the susceptibility (propensity to acquire infection), infectivity (propensity to transmit infection), and recoverability (propensity to recover/die) of individuals. Estimating genetic risk factors for these three underlying host epidemiological traits can help reduce disease spread through genetic control strategies. Previous studies have identified important 'disease resistance single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)', but how these affect the underlying traits is an unresolved question. Recent advances in computational statistics make it now possible to estimate the effects of SNPs on host traits from epidemic data (e.g. infection and/or recovery times of individuals or diagnostic test results). However, little is known about how to effectively design disease transmission experiments or field studies to maximise the precision with which these effects can be estimated.

RESULTS

In this paper, we develop and validate analytical expressions for the precision of the estimates of SNP effects on the three above host traits for a disease transmission experiment with one or more non-interacting contact groups. Maximising these expressions leads to three distinct 'experimental' designs, each specifying a different set of ideal SNP genotype compositions across groups: (a) appropriate for a single contact-group, (b) a multi-group design termed "pure", and (c) a multi-group design termed "mixed", where 'pure' and 'mixed' refer to groupings that consist of individuals with uniformly the same or different SNP genotypes, respectively. Precision estimates for susceptibility and recoverability were found to be less sensitive to the experimental design than estimates for infectivity. Whereas the analytical expressions suggest that the multi-group pure and mixed designs estimate SNP effects with similar precision, the mixed design is preferred because it uses information from naturally-occurring rather than artificial infections. The same design principles apply to estimates of the epidemiological impact of other categorical fixed effects, such as breed, line, family, sex, or vaccination status. Estimation of SNP effect precisions from a given experimental setup is implemented in an online software tool SIRE-PC.

CONCLUSIONS

Methodology was developed to aid the design of disease transmission experiments for estimating the effect of individual SNPs and other categorical variables that underlie host susceptibility, infectivity and recoverability. Designs that maximize the precision of estimates were derived.

Modelling: Understanding pandemics and how to control them

New disease challenges, societal demands and better or novel types of data, drive innovations in the structure, formulation and analysis of epidemic models. Innovations in modelling can lead to new insights into epidemic processes and better use of available data, yielding improved disease control and stimulating collection of better data and new data types. Here we identify key challenges for the structure, formulation, analysis and use of mathematical models of pathogen transmission relevant to current and future pandemics.

Review: Livestock disease resilience: from individual to herd level

Infectious diseases are a major threat to the sustainable production of high-producing animals. Control efforts, such as vaccination or breeding approaches often target improvements to individual resilience to infections, i.e., they strengthen an animal's ability to cope with infection, rather than preventing infection per se. There is increasing evidence for the contribution of non-clinical carriers (animals that become infected and are infectious but do not develop clinical signs) to the overall health and production of livestock populations for a wide range of infectious diseases. Therefore, we strongly advocate a shift of focus from increasing the disease resilience of individual animals to herd disease resilience as the appropriate target for sustainable disease control in livestock. Herd disease resilience not only captures the direct effects of vaccination or host genetics on the health and production performance of individuals but also the indirect effects on the environmental pathogen load that herd members are exposed to. For diseases primarily caused by infectious pathogens shed by herd members, these indirect effects on herd resilience are mediated both by individual susceptibility to infection and by characteristics (magnitude of infectiousness, duration of infectious period) that influence pathogen shedding from infected individuals. We review what is currently known about how vaccination and selective breeding affect herd disease resilience and its underlying components, and outline the changes required for improvement. To this purpose, we also seek to clarify and harmonise the terminology used in the different animal science disciplines to facilitate future collaborative approaches to infectious disease control in livestock.

The quantitative genetics of the prevalence of infectious diseases: hidden genetic variation due to Indirect Genetic Effects dominates heritable variation and response to selection

Infectious diseases have profound effects on life, both in nature and agriculture. However, a quantitative genetic theory of the host population for the endemic prevalence of infectious diseases is almost entirely lacking. While several studies have demonstrated the relevance of transmission of infections for heritable variation and response to selection, current quantitative genetics ignores transmission. Thus, we lack concepts of breeding value and heritable variation for endemic prevalence, and poorly understand response of endemic prevalence to selection. Here, we integrate quantitative genetics and epidemiology, and propose a quantitative genetic theory for the basic reproduction number R₀ and for the endemic prevalence of an infection. We first identify the genetic factors that determine the prevalence. Subsequently, we investigate the population-level consequences of individual genetic variation, for both R0 and the endemic prevalence. Next, we present expressions for the breeding value and heritable variation, for endemic prevalence and individual binary disease status, and show that these depend strongly on the prevalence. Results show that heritable variation for endemic prevalence is substantially greater than currently believed, and increases strongly when prevalence decreases, while heritability of disease status approaches zero. As a consequence, response of the endemic prevalence to selection for lower disease status accelerates considerably when prevalence decreases, in contrast to classical predictions. Finally, we show that most heritable variation for the endemic prevalence is hidden in indirect genetic effects, suggesting a key role for kin-group selection in the evolutionary history of current populations and for genetic improvement in animals and plants.

Phenomes: the current frontier in animal breeding

Improvements in genomic technologies have outpaced the most optimistic predictions, allowing industry-scale application of genomic selection. However, only marginal gains in genetic prediction accuracy can now be expected by increasing marker density up to sequence, unless causative mutations are identified. We argue that some of the most scientifically disrupting and industry-relevant challenges relate to ‘phenomics’ instead of ‘genomics’. Thanks to developments in sensor technology and artificial intelligence, there is a wide range of analytical tools that are already available and many more will be developed. We can now address some of the pressing societal demands on the industry, such as animal welfare concerns or efficiency in the use of resources. From the statistical and computational point of view, phenomics raises two important issues that require further work: penalization and dimension reduction. This will be complicated by the inherent heterogeneity and ‘missingness’ of the data. Overall, we can expect that precision livestock technologies will make it possible to collect hundreds of traits on a continuous basis from large numbers of animals. Perhaps the main revolution will come from redesigning animal breeding schemes to explicitly allow for high-dimensional phenomics. In the meantime, phenomics data will definitely enlighten our knowledge on the biological basis of phenotypes.

Why genetic selection to reduce the prevalence of infectious diseases is way more promising than currently believed

Genetic selection for improved disease resistance is an important part of strategies to combat infectious diseases in agriculture. Quantitative genetic analyses of binary disease status, however, indicate low heritability for most diseases, which restricts the rate of genetic reduction in disease prevalence. Moreover, the common liability threshold model suggests that eradication of an infectious disease via genetic selection is impossible because the observed-scale heritability goes to zero when the prevalence approaches zero. From infectious disease epidemiology, however, we know that eradication of infectious diseases is possible, both in theory and practice, because of positive feedback mechanisms leading to the phenomenon known as herd immunity. The common quantitative genetic models, however, ignore these feedback mechanisms. Here, we integrate quantitative genetic analysis of binary disease status with epidemiological models of transmission, aiming to identify the potential response to selection for reducing the prevalence of endemic infectious diseases. The results show that typical heritability values of binary disease status correspond to a very substantial genetic variation in disease susceptibility among individuals. Moreover, our results show that eradication of infectious diseases by genetic selection is possible in principle. These findings strongly disagree with predictions based on common quantitative genetic models, which ignore the positive feedback effects that occur when reducing the transmission of infectious diseases. Those feedback effects are a specific kind of Indirect Genetic Effects; they contribute substantially to the response to selection and the development of herd immunity (i.e., an effective reproduction ratio less than one).