AutoPrognosis 2.0: Democratizing diagnostic and prognostic modeling in healthcare with automated machine learning

Inference of social cognition in schizophrenia patients with neurocognitive domains and neurocognitive tests using automated machine learning

AIM

It has been suggested that single neurocognitive domain or neurocognitive test can be used to determine the overall cognitive function in schizophrenia using machine learning algorithms. It is unknown whether social cognition in schizophrenia patients can be estimated with machine learning based on neurocognitive domains or neurocognitive tests.

METHODS

To predict social cognition in schizophrenia, we applied an automated machine learning (AutoML) framework resulting from the analysis of predictive factors such as six neurocognitive domain scores and nine neurocognitive test scores of 380 schizophrenia patients in the Taiwanese population. Four clinical parameters (i.e., age, gender, subgroup, and education) were also used as predictive factors. We utilized an AutoML framework called Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool (TPOT) to generate predictive pipelines automatically.

RESULTS

The analysis revealed that all neurocognitive domains and tests except the reasoning and problem solving domain/test showed significant associations with social cognition. In addition, a TPOT-generated pipeline can best predict social cognition in schizophrenia using seven predictive factors, including five neurocognitive domains (i.e., speed of processing, sustained attention, working memory, verbal learning and memory, and visual learning and memory) and two clinical parameters (i.e., age and gender). This predictive pipeline consists of machine learning algorithms such as function transformers, an approximate feature map, independent component analysis, and linear regression.

CONCLUSION

The study indicates that an AutoML framework such as TPOT may provide a promising way to produce truly effective machine learning pipelines for predicting social cognition in schizophrenia using neurocognitive domains and/or neurocognitive tests.

Assessing eligibility for lung cancer screening using parsimonious ensemble machine learning models: A development and validation study

BACKGROUND

Risk-based screening for lung cancer is currently being considered in several countries; however, the optimal approach to determine eligibility remains unclear. Ensemble machine learning could support the development of highly parsimonious prediction models that maintain the performance of more complex models while maximising simplicity and generalisability, supporting the widespread adoption of personalised screening. In this work, we aimed to develop and validate ensemble machine learning models to determine eligibility for risk-based lung cancer screening.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

For model development, we used data from 216,714 ever-smokers recruited between 2006 and 2010 to the UK Biobank prospective cohort and 26,616 high-risk ever-smokers recruited between 2002 and 2004 to the control arm of the US National Lung Screening (NLST) randomised controlled trial. The NLST trial randomised high-risk smokers from 33 US centres with at least a 30 pack-year smoking history and fewer than 15 quit-years to annual CT or chest radiography screening for lung cancer. We externally validated our models among 49,593 participants in the chest radiography arm and all 80,659 ever-smoking participants in the US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Screening Trial. The PLCO trial, recruiting from 1993 to 2001, analysed the impact of chest radiography or no chest radiography for lung cancer screening. We primarily validated in the PLCO chest radiography arm such that we could benchmark against comparator models developed within the PLCO control arm. Models were developed to predict the risk of 2 outcomes within 5 years from baseline: diagnosis of lung cancer and death from lung cancer. We assessed model discrimination (area under the receiver operating curve, AUC), calibration (calibration curves and expected/observed ratio), overall performance (Brier scores), and net benefit with decision curve analysis. Models predicting lung cancer death (UCL-D) and incidence (UCL-I) using 3 variables-age, smoking duration, and pack-years-achieved or exceeded parity in discrimination, overall performance, and net benefit with comparators currently in use, despite requiring only one-quarter of the predictors. In external validation in the PLCO trial, UCL-D had an AUC of 0.803 (95% CI: 0.783, 0.824) and was well calibrated with an expected/observed (E/O) ratio of 1.05 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.19). UCL-I had an AUC of 0.787 (95% CI: 0.771, 0.802), an E/O ratio of 1.0 (95% CI: 0.92, 1.07). The sensitivity of UCL-D was 85.5% and UCL-I was 83.9%, at 5-year risk thresholds of 0.68% and 1.17%, respectively, 7.9% and 6.2% higher than the USPSTF-2021 criteria at the same specificity. The main limitation of this study is that the models have not been validated outside of UK and US cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

We present parsimonious ensemble machine learning models to predict the risk of lung cancer in ever-smokers, demonstrating a novel approach that could simplify the implementation of risk-based lung cancer screening in multiple settings.