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Mellor J, Jeyam A, Beulens JW, Bhandari S, Broadhead G, Chew E, Fickweiler W, van der Heijden A, Gordin D, Simó R, Snell-Bergeon J, Tynjälä A, Colhoun H. Role of Systemic Factors in Improving the Prognosis of Diabetic Retinal Disease and Predicting Response to Diabetic Retinopathy Treatment. OPHTHALMOLOGY SCIENCE 2024; 4:100494. [PMID: 38694495 PMCID: PMC11061755 DOI: 10.1016/j.xops.2024.100494] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2023] [Revised: 02/02/2024] [Accepted: 02/12/2024] [Indexed: 05/04/2024]
Abstract
Topic To review clinical evidence on systemic factors that might be relevant to update diabetic retinal disease (DRD) staging systems, including prediction of DRD onset, progression, and response to treatment. Clinical relevance Systemic factors may improve new staging systems for DRD to better assess risk of disease worsening and predict response to therapy. Methods The Systemic Health Working Group of the Mary Tyler Moore Vision Initiative reviewed systemic factors individually and in multivariate models for prediction of DRD onset or progression (i.e., prognosis) or response to treatments (prediction). Results There was consistent evidence for associations of longer diabetes duration, higher glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and male sex with DRD onset and progression. There is strong trial evidence for the effect of reducing HbA1c and reducing DRD progression. There is strong evidence that higher blood pressure (BP) is a risk factor for DRD incidence and for progression. Pregnancy has been consistently reported to be associated with worsening of DRD but recent studies reflecting modern care standards are lacking. In studies examining multivariate prognostic models of DRD onset, HbA1c and diabetes duration were consistently retained as significant predictors of DRD onset. There was evidence of associations of BP and sex with DRD onset. In multivariate prognostic models examining DRD progression, retinal measures were consistently found to be a significant predictor of DRD with little evidence of any useful marginal increment in prognostic information with the inclusion of systemic risk factor data apart from retinal image data in multivariate models. For predicting the impact of treatment, although there are small studies that quantify prognostic information based on imaging data alone or systemic factors alone, there are currently no large studies that quantify marginal prognostic information within a multivariate model, including both imaging and systemic factors. Conclusion With standard imaging techniques and ways of processing images rapidly evolving, an international network of centers is needed to routinely capture systemic health factors simultaneously to retinal images so that gains in prediction increment may be precisely quantified to determine the usefulness of various health factors in the prognosis of DRD and prediction of response to treatment. Financial Disclosures Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joe Mellor
- Centre for Population Health Sciences, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
| | - Anita Jeyam
- Centre for Genomic & Experimental Medicine, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Western General Hospital Crewe Road, Edinburgh, Scotland
| | - Joline W.J. Beulens
- Department of Epidemiology & Data Science, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC, location VUmc, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Sanjeeb Bhandari
- Division of Epidemiology and Clinical Applications, National Eye Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Geoffrey Broadhead
- Division of Epidemiology and Clinical Applications, National Eye Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Emily Chew
- Division of Epidemiology and Clinical Applications, National Eye Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Ward Fickweiler
- Beetham Eye Institute, Joslin Diabetes Center, Boston, Massachusetts
- Department of Ophthalmology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Amber van der Heijden
- Department of General Practice, Amsterdam Public Health Institute, Amsterdam UMC, location VUmc, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Daniel Gordin
- Folkhälsan Institute of Genetics, Folkhälsan Research Center, Department of Nephrology, Helsinki University Hospital, University of Helsinki, Finland
| | - Rafael Simó
- Endocrinology & Nutrition, Institut de Recerca Hospital Universitari Vall d’Hebron (VHIR), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Janet Snell-Bergeon
- Clinical Epidemiology Division, Barbara Davis Center for Diabetes, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Colorado
| | - Anniina Tynjälä
- Folkhälsan Institute of Genetics, Folkhälsan Research Center, Department of Nephrology, Helsinki University Hospital, University of Helsinki, Finland
| | - Helen Colhoun
- Centre for Genomic & Experimental Medicine, Institute of Genetics and Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Western General Hospital Crewe Road, Edinburgh, Scotland
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Mellor J, Jiang W, Fleming A, McGurnaghan SJ, Blackbourn LAK, Styles C, Storkey A, McKeigue PM, Colhoun HM. Prediction of retinopathy progression using deep learning on retinal images within the Scottish screening programme. Br J Ophthalmol 2024; 108:833-839. [PMID: 38316534 DOI: 10.1136/bjo-2023-323400] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2023] [Accepted: 07/09/2023] [Indexed: 02/07/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND/AIMS National guidelines of many countries set screening intervals for diabetic retinopathy (DR) based on grading of the last screening retinal images. We explore the potential of deep learning (DL) on images to predict progression to referable DR beyond DR grading, and the potential impact on assigned screening intervals, within the Scottish screening programme. METHODS We consider 21 346 and 247 233 people with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), respectively, each contributing on average 4.8 and 4.4 screening intervals of which 1339 and 4675 intervals concluded with a referable screening episode. Information extracted from fundus images using DL was used to predict referable status at the end of interval and its predictive value in comparison to screening-assigned DR grade was assessed. RESULTS The DL predictor increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in comparison to a predictor using current DR grades from 0.809 to 0.87 for T1DM and from 0.825 to 0.87 for T2DM. Expected sojourn time-the time from becoming referable to being rescreened-was found to be 3.4 (T1DM) and 2.7 (T2DM) weeks less for a DL-derived policy compared with the current recall policy. CONCLUSIONS We showed that, compared with using the current retinopathy grade, DL of fundus images significantly improves the prediction of incident referable retinopathy before the next screening episode. This can impact screening recall interval policy positively, for example, by reducing the expected time with referable disease for a fixed workload-which we show as an exemplar. Additionally, it could be used to optimise workload for a fixed sojourn time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joseph Mellor
- Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Wenhua Jiang
- Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Alan Fleming
- Institute of Genetics and Cancer, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Stuart J McGurnaghan
- Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Institute of Genetics and Cancer, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Luke A K Blackbourn
- Institute of Genetics and Cancer, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Amos Storkey
- School of Informatics, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Helen M Colhoun
- Institute of Genetics and Cancer, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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Kanbour S, Harris C, Lalani B, Wolf RM, Fitipaldi H, Gomez MF, Mathioudakis N. Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Diabetic Microvascular Complications. J Diabetes Sci Technol 2024; 18:273-286. [PMID: 38189280 PMCID: PMC10973856 DOI: 10.1177/19322968231223726] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/09/2024]
Abstract
IMPORTANCE AND AIMS Diabetic microvascular complications significantly impact morbidity and mortality. This review focuses on machine learning/artificial intelligence (ML/AI) in predicting diabetic retinopathy (DR), diabetic kidney disease (DKD), and diabetic neuropathy (DN). METHODS A comprehensive PubMed search from 1990 to 2023 identified studies on ML/AI models for diabetic microvascular complications. The review analyzed study design, cohorts, predictors, ML techniques, prediction horizon, and performance metrics. RESULTS Among the 74 identified studies, 256 featured internally validated ML models and 124 had externally validated models, with about half being retrospective. Since 2010, there has been a rise in the use of ML for predicting microvascular complications, mainly driven by DKD research across 27 countries. A more modest increase in ML research on DR and DN was observed, with publications from fewer countries. For all microvascular complications, predictive models achieved a mean (standard deviation) c-statistic of 0.79 (0.09) on internal validation and 0.72 (0.12) on external validation. Diabetic kidney disease models had the highest discrimination, with c-statistics of 0.81 (0.09) on internal validation and 0.74 (0.13) on external validation, respectively. Few studies externally validated prediction of DN. The prediction horizon, outcome definitions, number and type of predictors, and ML technique significantly influenced model performance. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE There is growing global interest in using ML for predicting diabetic microvascular complications. Research on DKD is the most advanced in terms of publication volume and overall prediction performance. Both DR and DN require more research. External validation and adherence to recommended guidelines are crucial.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Catharine Harris
- Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes,
& Metabolism, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD,
USA
| | - Benjamin Lalani
- Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes,
& Metabolism, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD,
USA
| | - Risa M. Wolf
- Division of Pediatric Endocrinology,
Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Hugo Fitipaldi
- Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund
University Diabetes Centre, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
| | - Maria F. Gomez
- Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund
University Diabetes Centre, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
| | - Nestoras Mathioudakis
- Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes,
& Metabolism, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD,
USA
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Mackenzie SC, Sainsbury CAR, Wake DJ. Diabetes and artificial intelligence beyond the closed loop: a review of the landscape, promise and challenges. Diabetologia 2024; 67:223-235. [PMID: 37979006 PMCID: PMC10789841 DOI: 10.1007/s00125-023-06038-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2023] [Accepted: 09/22/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023]
Abstract
The discourse amongst diabetes specialists and academics regarding technology and artificial intelligence (AI) typically centres around the 10% of people with diabetes who have type 1 diabetes, focusing on glucose sensors, insulin pumps and, increasingly, closed-loop systems. This focus is reflected in conference topics, strategy documents, technology appraisals and funding streams. What is often overlooked is the wider application of data and AI, as demonstrated through published literature and emerging marketplace products, that offers promising avenues for enhanced clinical care, health-service efficiency and cost-effectiveness. This review provides an overview of AI techniques and explores the use and potential of AI and data-driven systems in a broad context, covering all diabetes types, encompassing: (1) patient education and self-management; (2) clinical decision support systems and predictive analytics, including diagnostic support, treatment and screening advice, complications prediction; and (3) the use of multimodal data, such as imaging or genetic data. The review provides a perspective on how data- and AI-driven systems could transform diabetes care in the coming years and how they could be integrated into daily clinical practice. We discuss evidence for benefits and potential harms, and consider existing barriers to scalable adoption, including challenges related to data availability and exchange, health inequality, clinician hesitancy and regulation. Stakeholders, including clinicians, academics, commissioners, policymakers and those with lived experience, must proactively collaborate to realise the potential benefits that AI-supported diabetes care could bring, whilst mitigating risk and navigating the challenges along the way.
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Affiliation(s)
- Scott C Mackenzie
- Population Health and Genomics, School of Medicine, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
| | - Chris A R Sainsbury
- Institute for Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Deborah J Wake
- Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
- Edinburgh Centre for Endocrinology and Diabetes, NHS Lothian, Edinburgh, UK.
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5
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Drinkwater JJ, Kalantary A, Turner AW. A systematic review of diabetic retinopathy screening intervals. Acta Ophthalmol 2023. [PMID: 37915115 DOI: 10.1111/aos.15788] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2023] [Revised: 09/26/2023] [Accepted: 09/28/2023] [Indexed: 11/03/2023]
Abstract
The current evidence on whether annual diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening intervals can be extended was reviewed. A systematic review protocol was followed (PROSPERO ID: CRD42022359590). Original longitudinal articles that specifically assessed DR screening intervals were in English and collected data after 2000 were included. Two reviewers independently conducted the search and reviewed the articles for quality and relevant information. The heterogeneity of the data meant that a meta-analysis was not appropriate. Twelve publications were included. Studies were of good quality and many used data from DR screening programs. Studies fit into three categories; those that assessed specific DR screening intervals, those that determined optimal DR screening intervals and those that developed/assessed DR screening risk equations. For those with type 2 diabetes, extending screening intervals to 3- to 4-yearly in those with no baseline DR appeared safe. DR risk equations considered clinical factors and allocated those at lower risk of DR progression screening intervals of up to five years. Those with baseline DR or type 1 diabetes appeared to have a higher risk of progression to STDR and needed more frequent screening. DR screening intervals can be extended to 3-5 yearly in certain circumstances. These include patients with type 2 diabetes and no current DR, and those who have optimal management of other risk factors such as glucose and blood pressure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jocelyn J Drinkwater
- Center for Ophthalmology and Visual Science, The University of Western Australia, Nedlands, Western Australia, Australia
- Lions Outback Vision, Lions Eye Institute, Nedlands, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Amy Kalantary
- Lions Outback Vision, Lions Eye Institute, Nedlands, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Angus W Turner
- Center for Ophthalmology and Visual Science, The University of Western Australia, Nedlands, Western Australia, Australia
- Lions Outback Vision, Lions Eye Institute, Nedlands, Western Australia, Australia
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Nugawela MD, Gurudas S, Prevost AT, Mathur R, Robson J, Sathish T, Rafferty J, Rajalakshmi R, Anjana RM, Jebarani S, Mohan V, Owens DR, Sivaprasad S. Development and validation of predictive risk models for sight threatening diabetic retinopathy in patients with type 2 diabetes to be applied as triage tools in resource limited settings. EClinicalMedicine 2022; 51:101578. [PMID: 35898318 PMCID: PMC9310126 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101578] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2021] [Revised: 07/04/2022] [Accepted: 07/06/2022] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Delayed diagnosis and treatment of sight threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) is a common cause of visual impairment in people with Type 2 diabetes. Therefore, systematic regular retinal screening is recommended, but global coverage of such services is challenging. We aimed to develop and validate predictive models for STDR to identify 'at-risk' population for retinal screening. Methods Models were developed using datasets obtained from general practices in inner London, United Kingdom (UK) on adults with type 2 Diabetes during the period 2007-2017. Three models were developed using Cox regression and model performance was assessed using C statistic, calibration slope and observed to expected ratio measures. Models were externally validated in cohorts from Wales, UK and India. Findings A total of 40,334 people were included in the model development phase of which 1427 (3·54%) people developed STDR. Age, gender, diabetes duration, antidiabetic medication history, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), and history of retinopathy were included as predictors in the Model 1, Model 2 excluded retinopathy status, and Model 3 further excluded HbA1c. All three models attained strong discrimination performance in the model development dataset with C statistics ranging from 0·778 to 0·832, and in the external validation datasets (C statistic 0·685 - 0·823) with calibration slopes closer to 1 following re-calibration of the baseline survival. Interpretation We have developed new risk prediction equations to identify those at risk of STDR in people with type 2 diabetes in any resource-setting so that they can be screened and treated early. Future testing, and piloting is required before implementation. Funding This study was funded by the GCRF UKRI (MR/P207881/1) and supported by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at Moorfields Eye Hospital NHS Foundation Trust and UCL Institute of Ophthalmology.
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Key Words
- BMI, Body mass index
- CCG, Clinical Commissioning Group
- CI, Confidence Interval
- CPRD, Clinical Practice Research Datalink
- CVD, Cardiovascular disease
- DR, Diabetic Retinopathy
- Diabetes
- Diabetic
- GP, General Practice
- HR, Hazard ratio
- India
- NHS, National Health Service
- OR, Odds ratio
- Performance
- Predictive models
- Retinopathy
- STDR, Sight threatening diabetic retinopathy
- South Asians
- T2DM, Type II diabetes mellitus
- UK, United Kingdom
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Affiliation(s)
- Manjula D. Nugawela
- UCL Institute of Ophthalmology, 11-43 Bath Street, London EC1V 9EL, United Kingdom
| | - Sarega Gurudas
- UCL Institute of Ophthalmology, 11-43 Bath Street, London EC1V 9EL, United Kingdom
| | - A. Toby Prevost
- King's College London, Nightingale-Saunders Clinical Trials and Epidemiology Unit, London SE5 9PJ, United Kingdom
| | - Rohini Mathur
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom
| | - John Robson
- Queen Mary University of London, Institute of Population Health Sciences, London, E1 4NS Wales, United Kingdom
| | - Thirunavukkarasu Sathish
- Population Health Research Institute, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
- Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - J.M. Rafferty
- Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, Singleton Park, Swansea, Wales SA2 8PP, United Kingdom
| | - Ramachandran Rajalakshmi
- Madras Diabetes Research Foundation and Dr. Mohan's Diabetes Specialities Centre, Chennai 600086, India
| | - Ranjit Mohan Anjana
- Madras Diabetes Research Foundation and Dr. Mohan's Diabetes Specialities Centre, Chennai 600086, India
| | - Saravanan Jebarani
- Madras Diabetes Research Foundation and Dr. Mohan's Diabetes Specialities Centre, Chennai 600086, India
| | - Viswanathan Mohan
- Madras Diabetes Research Foundation and Dr. Mohan's Diabetes Specialities Centre, Chennai 600086, India
| | - David R. Owens
- Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, Singleton Park, Swansea, Wales SA2 8PP, United Kingdom
| | - Sobha Sivaprasad
- UCL Institute of Ophthalmology, 11-43 Bath Street, London EC1V 9EL, United Kingdom
- Moorfields Eye Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom
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Zhu X, Xu Y, Lu L, Zou H. Telescreening satisfaction: disparities between individuals with diabetic retinopathy and community health center staff. BMC Health Serv Res 2022; 22:160. [PMID: 35130901 PMCID: PMC8822836 DOI: 10.1186/s12913-022-07500-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2021] [Accepted: 01/07/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The success of telescreening and the management of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in communities depends on stakeholder satisfaction, including both individuals with diabetes and community health center (CHC) staff. In this study, we investigated the satisfaction of both individuals with vision-threatening DR (VTDR) and CHC staff within the Shanghai Eye Disease Study (SEDS) comprehensive system for managing diabetic eye diseases at the primary care level. Methods The cross-sectional survey of patients receiving the service included 3,817 respondents with VTDR and focused on their satisfaction with the SEDS system, including the telescreening process, speed of feedback, interpretation of results, increased awareness of related diseases, and eye care services. The survey of the providers included 234 CHC staff respondents and focused on their satisfaction and the main barriers encountered during the implementation of the system. Sociodemographic characteristics and perceived barriers related to satisfaction were identified by conducting univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Results The overall satisfaction of service recipients was 96.0%, and 75.8% of them were willing to undergo future telescreening for DR. The convenience of telescreening, organization of telescreening, and improvement in related disease awareness significantly correlated with satisfaction. Only 48.3% of the providers were satisfied with the SEDS system. The most frequently mentioned barriers to the development of the system were the inadequate levels of staffing (particularly technical staff), insufficient funding, and incomplete information transmission systems. Conclusions Disparities between high patient satisfaction and low provider satisfaction with the SEDS system were mainly related to the current weak level of ophthalmic expertise in the CHCs and the low awareness of screening for diabetic eye diseases among both patients and providers. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-022-07500-w.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaofeng Zhu
- Department of Preventative Ophthalmology, Shanghai Eye Disease Prevention and Treatment Center/Shanghai Eye Hospital, Shanghai, China.,Department of Ophthalmology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.,Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Precise Diagnosis and Treatment of Eye Diseases, Shanghai, China.,National Clinical Research Center for Eye Diseases, Shanghai, China.,Shanghai Key Laboratory of Fundus Diseases, Shanghai, China
| | - Yi Xu
- Department of Preventative Ophthalmology, Shanghai Eye Disease Prevention and Treatment Center/Shanghai Eye Hospital, Shanghai, China.,Department of Ophthalmology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Lina Lu
- Department of Preventative Ophthalmology, Shanghai Eye Disease Prevention and Treatment Center/Shanghai Eye Hospital, Shanghai, China. .,Department of Ophthalmology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
| | - Haidong Zou
- Department of Preventative Ophthalmology, Shanghai Eye Disease Prevention and Treatment Center/Shanghai Eye Hospital, Shanghai, China. .,Department of Ophthalmology, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China. .,Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Precise Diagnosis and Treatment of Eye Diseases, Shanghai, China. .,National Clinical Research Center for Eye Diseases, Shanghai, China. .,Shanghai Key Laboratory of Fundus Diseases, Shanghai, China.
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8
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Saputro SA, Pattanaprateep O, Pattanateepapon A, Karmacharya S, Thakkinstian A. Prognostic models of diabetic microvascular complications: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Syst Rev 2021; 10:288. [PMID: 34724973 PMCID: PMC8561867 DOI: 10.1186/s13643-021-01841-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2021] [Accepted: 10/21/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Many prognostic models of diabetic microvascular complications have been developed, but their performances still varies. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarise the performances of the existing models. METHODS Prognostic models of diabetic microvascular complications were retrieved from PubMed and Scopus up to 31 December 2020. Studies were selected, if they developed or internally/externally validated models of any microvascular complication in type 2 diabetes (T2D). RESULTS In total, 71 studies were eligible, of which 32, 30 and 18 studies initially developed prognostic model for diabetic retinopathy (DR), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end stage renal disease (ESRD) with the number of derived equations of 84, 96 and 51, respectively. Most models were derived-phases, some were internal and external validations. Common predictors were age, sex, HbA1c, diabetic duration, SBP and BMI. Traditional statistical models (i.e. Cox and logit regression) were mostly applied, otherwise machine learning. In cohorts, the discriminative performance in derived-logit was pooled with C statistics of 0.82 (0.73‑0.92) for DR and 0.78 (0.74‑0.83) for CKD. Pooled Cox regression yielded 0.75 (0.74‑0.77), 0.78 (0.74‑0.82) and 0.87 (0.84‑0.89) for DR, CKD and ESRD, respectively. External validation performances were sufficiently pooled with 0.81 (0.78‑0.83), 0.75 (0.67‑0.84) and 0.87 (0.85‑0.88) for DR, CKD and ESRD, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Several prognostic models were developed, but less were externally validated. A few studies derived the models by using appropriate methods and were satisfactory reported. More external validations and impact analyses are required before applying these models in clinical practice. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION PROSPERO CRD42018105287.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sigit Ari Saputro
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, 270 Rama VI Road, Pyathai, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand.,Department of Epidemiology Biostatistics Population and Health Promotion, Faculty of Public Health, Airlangga University, Surabaya, Indonesia
| | - Oraluck Pattanaprateep
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, 270 Rama VI Road, Pyathai, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand.
| | - Anuchate Pattanateepapon
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, 270 Rama VI Road, Pyathai, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand
| | - Swekshya Karmacharya
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, 270 Rama VI Road, Pyathai, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand
| | - Ammarin Thakkinstian
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, 270 Rama VI Road, Pyathai, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand
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9
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Reid LJ, Gibb FW, Colhoun H, Wild SH, Strachan MWJ, Madill K, Dhillon B, Forbes S. Continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion therapy is associated with reduced retinopathy progression compared with multiple daily injections of insulin. Diabetologia 2021; 64:1725-1736. [PMID: 33966091 PMCID: PMC8245368 DOI: 10.1007/s00125-021-05456-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2020] [Accepted: 03/01/2021] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Abstract
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS We aimed to compare diabetic retinopathy outcomes in people with type 1 diabetes following introduction of continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) therapy with outcomes in people receiving continuing therapy with multiple daily insulin injections (MDI). METHODS This is a retrospective cohort study using the Scottish Care Information - Diabetes database for retinal screening outcomes and HbA1c changes in 204 adults commenced on CSII therapy between 2013 and 2016, and 211 adults eligible for CSII during the same period but who continued on MDI therapy. Diabetic retinopathy progression (time to minimum one-grade worsening in diabetic retinopathy from baseline grading) was plotted for CSII and MDI cohorts using Kaplan-Meier curves, and outcomes were compared using multivariate Cox regression analysis adjusting for age, sex, baseline HbA1c, blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking status and socioeconomic quintile. Impact of baseline HbA1c and change in HbA1c on diabetic retinopathy progression was assessed within CSII and MDI cohorts. RESULTS CSII participants were significantly younger, were from less socially deprived areas, and had lower HbA1c and higher diastolic BP at baseline. There was a larger reduction in HbA1c at 1 year in those on CSII vs MDI (-6 mmol/mol [-0.6%] vs -2 mmol/mol [-0.2%], p < 0.01). Diabetic retinopathy progression occurred in a smaller proportion of adults following commencement of CSII vs continued MDI therapy over mean 2.3 year follow-up (26.5% vs 18.6%, p = 0.0097). High baseline HbA1c (75 mmol/mol [9%]) was associated with diabetic retinopathy progression in the MDI group (p = 0.0049) but not the CSII group (p = 0.93). Change in HbA1c at follow-up, irrespective of baseline glycaemic status, did not significantly affect diabetic retinopathy progression in either group. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION CSII was associated with reduced diabetic retinopathy progression compared with continued MDI therapy, and may be protective against diabetic retinopathy progression for those with high baseline HbA1c. Progression of diabetic retinopathy over 3 years was not associated with a change in HbA1c.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura J Reid
- Edinburgh Centre for Endocrinology and Diabetes, NHS Lothian, Edinburgh, UK
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, Queen's Medical Research Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Fraser W Gibb
- Edinburgh Centre for Endocrinology and Diabetes, NHS Lothian, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Helen Colhoun
- Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Sarah H Wild
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Mark W J Strachan
- Edinburgh Centre for Endocrinology and Diabetes, NHS Lothian, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Karen Madill
- Princess Alexandra Eye Pavilion, NHS Lothian, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Baljean Dhillon
- Princess Alexandra Eye Pavilion, NHS Lothian, Edinburgh, UK
- Centre for Clinical Brain Sciences, School of Clinical Sciences, College of Medicine and Veterinary Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Shareen Forbes
- Edinburgh Centre for Endocrinology and Diabetes, NHS Lothian, Edinburgh, UK.
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, Queen's Medical Research Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
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10
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Byberg S, Vistisen D, Jørgensen ME, Diaz LJ, Valerius M, Hajari JN, Lund‐Andersen H. Quality assessment of a screening algorithm for diabetic retinopathy: prolongation of screening intervals with minimal effect of HbA 1c and arterial hypertension on the length of intervals. Acta Ophthalmol 2021; 99:e360-e367. [PMID: 32930495 DOI: 10.1111/aos.14590] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2019] [Revised: 07/13/2020] [Accepted: 07/21/2020] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE At Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen (SDCC), diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening intervals are based on quantification of retinal lesions. Screening intervals are, for the milder forms of DR, prolonged to 2-3 years. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the effect of the prolongation on developing unexpected events and to evaluate the effect of HbA1c and arterial hypertension. METHODS We assessed 18 972 screening intervals from 6000 patients from 1/1-2003 to 1/5-2017 for occurrence of unexpected events, defined as: (1) DR progression requiring treatment, at the following screening date, and (2) DR-related hospital contact within the planned interval. We modelled the effect of several risk factors for developing unexpected events in a Cox regression. Furthermore, we assessed the risk of unexpected events in a logistic regression analysis using cubic splines to model the effect of HbA1c , stratified by arterial hypertension status. RESULTS 16 283 (86%) intervals followed the planned interval and among those, only 86 (0.5%) experienced unexpected events. Intervals of dysregulated patients (86% of all intervals) did not experience more unexpected events, compared with well-regulated patient intervals (Hazard Ratio: 1.12, 95% CI: 0.55-2.27). We found a nonlinear effect of HbA1c on the risk of unexpected events which peaked around HbA1c levels of 80 mmol/mol. Having arterial hypertension slightly increased the risk of unexpected events. CONCLUSIONS The present study supports the validity of the current algorithm. We found no increased risk of unexpected events among dysregulated intervals but a nonlinear effect of HbA1c . Age, diabetes duration and diabetes type were significantly associated with unexpected events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stine Byberg
- Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen Gentofte Denmark
| | | | - Marit Eika Jørgensen
- Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen Gentofte Denmark
- National Institute of Public Health University of Southern Denmark Copenhagen Denmark
| | | | - Marianne Valerius
- Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen Gentofte Denmark
- University Hospital Glostrup Glostrup Denmark
| | - Javad Nouri Hajari
- Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen Gentofte Denmark
- University Hospital Glostrup Glostrup Denmark
| | - Henrik Lund‐Andersen
- Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen Gentofte Denmark
- University Hospital Glostrup Glostrup Denmark
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11
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Jeyam A, Colhoun H, McGurnaghan S, Blackbourn L, McDonald TJ, Palmer CNA, McKnight JA, Strachan MWJ, Patrick AW, Chalmers J, Lindsay RS, Petrie JR, Thekkepat S, Collier A, MacRury S, McKeigue PM. Clinical Impact of Residual C-Peptide Secretion in Type 1 Diabetes on Glycemia and Microvascular Complications. Diabetes Care 2021; 44:390-398. [PMID: 33303639 DOI: 10.2337/dc20-0567] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2020] [Accepted: 11/03/2020] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To quantify the relationship of residual C-peptide secretion to glycemic outcomes and microvascular complications in type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS C-peptide was measured in an untimed blood sample in the Scottish Diabetes Research Network Type 1 Bioresource (SDRNT1BIO) cohort of 6,076 people with type 1 diabetes monitored for an average of 5.2 years. RESULTS In regression models adjusted for age at onset and duration, effect sizes for C-peptide ≥200 vs. <5 pmol/L were as follows: insulin dose at baseline, 27% lower (P = 2 × 10-39); HbA1c during follow-up, 4.9 mmol/mol lower (P = 3 × 10-13); hazard ratio for hospital admission for diabetic ketoacidosis during follow-up, 0.44 (P = 0.0001); odds ratio for incident retinopathy, 0.51 (P = 0.0003). Effects on the risk of serious hypoglycemic episodes were detectable at lower levels of C-peptide, and the form of the relationship was continuous down to the limit of detection (3 pmol/L). In regression models contrasting C-peptide 30 to <200 pmol/L with <5 pmol/L, the odds ratio for self-report of at least one serious hypoglycemic episode in the last year was 0.56 (P = 6 × 10-8), and the hazard ratio for hospital admission for hypoglycemia during follow-up was 0.52 (P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS These results in a large representative cohort suggest that even minimal residual C-peptide secretion could have clinical benefit in type 1 diabetes, in contrast to a follow-up study of the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) intensively treated cohort where an effect on hypoglycemia was seen only at C-peptide levels ≥130 pmol/L. This has obvious implications for the design and evaluation of trials of interventions to preserve or restore pancreatic islet function in type 1 diabetes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anita Jeyam
- Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Western General Hospital Campus, Edinburgh, U.K
| | - Helen Colhoun
- Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Western General Hospital Campus, Edinburgh, U.K
| | - Stuart McGurnaghan
- Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Western General Hospital Campus, Edinburgh, U.K
| | - Luke Blackbourn
- Institute of Genetics and Molecular Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Western General Hospital Campus, Edinburgh, U.K
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Robert S Lindsay
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, U.K
| | - John R Petrie
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, U.K
| | | | | | - Sandra MacRury
- National Health Service Highland Diabetes Centre, Inverness, U.K
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12
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Wake DJ, Gibb FW, Kar P, Kennon B, Klonoff DC, Rayman G, Rutter MK, Sainsbury C, Semple RK. ENDOCRINOLOGY IN THE TIME OF COVID-19: Remodelling diabetes services and emerging innovation. Eur J Endocrinol 2020; 183:G67-G77. [PMID: 32508313 PMCID: PMC7938018 DOI: 10.1530/eje-20-0377] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2020] [Accepted: 06/05/2020] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic is a major international emergency leading to unprecedented medical, economic and societal challenges. Countries around the globe are facing challenges with diabetes care and are similarly adapting care delivery, with local cultural nuances. People with diabetes suffer disproportionately from acute COVID-19 with higher rates of serious complications and death. In-patient services need specialist support to appropriately manage glycaemia in people with known and undiagnosed diabetes presenting with COVID-19. Due to the restrictions imposed by the pandemic, people with diabetes may suffer longer-term harm caused by inadequate clinical support and less frequent monitoring of their condition and diabetes-related complications. Outpatient management need to be reorganised to maintain remote advice and support services, focusing on proactive care for the highest risk, and using telehealth and digital services for consultations, self-management and remote monitoring, where appropriate. Stratification of patients for face-to-face or remote follow-up should be based on a balanced risk assessment. Public health and national organisations have generally responded rapidly with guidance on care management, but the pandemic has created a tension around prioritisation of communicable vs non-communicable disease. Resulting challenges in clinical decision-making are compounded by a reduced clinical workforce. For many years, increasing diabetes mellitus incidence has been mirrored by rising preventable morbidity and mortality due to complications, yet innovation in service delivery has been slow. While the current focus is on limiting the terrible harm caused by the pandemic, it is possible that a positive lasting legacy of COVID-19 might include accelerated innovation in chronic disease management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Deborah J Wake
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Edinburgh Centre for Endocrinology & Diabetes, NHS Lothian,
Edinburgh, UK
- Correspondence should be addressed to D Wake;
| | - Fraser W Gibb
- Edinburgh Centre for Endocrinology & Diabetes, NHS Lothian,
Edinburgh, UK
| | - Partha Kar
- Portsmouth Hospital NHS Trust, Portsmouth, UK
| | | | | | - Gerry Rayman
- Ipswich Hospital, East Suffolk and North East Essex NHS Trust,
Colchester, UK
- University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
| | - Martin K Rutter
- Division of Diabetes, Endocrinology and Gastroenterology, School of Medical
Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
- Manchester Diabetes Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust,
Manchester Academic Health Sciences Centre, Manchester, UK
| | - Chris Sainsbury
- NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, Glasgow, UK
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham,
Birmingham, UK
| | - Robert K Semple
- Edinburgh Centre for Endocrinology & Diabetes, NHS Lothian,
Edinburgh, UK
- Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences, The Queens Medical Research Institute,
University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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13
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van der Heijden AA, Nijpels G, Badloe F, Lovejoy HL, Peelen LM, Feenstra TL, Moons KGM, Slieker RC, Herings RMC, Elders PJM, Beulens JW. Prediction models for development of retinopathy in people with type 2 diabetes: systematic review and external validation in a Dutch primary care setting. Diabetologia 2020; 63:1110-1119. [PMID: 32246157 PMCID: PMC7228897 DOI: 10.1007/s00125-020-05134-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2019] [Accepted: 02/21/2020] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS The aims of this study were to identify all published prognostic models predicting retinopathy risk applicable to people with type 2 diabetes, to assess their quality and accuracy, and to validate their predictive accuracy in a head-to-head comparison using an independent type 2 diabetes cohort. METHODS A systematic search was performed in PubMed and Embase in December 2019. Studies that met the following criteria were included: (1) the model was applicable in type 2 diabetes; (2) the outcome was retinopathy; and (3) follow-up was more than 1 year. Screening, data extraction (using the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systemic reviews of prediction modelling studies [CHARMS]) and risk of bias assessment (by prediction model risk of bias assessment tool [PROBAST]) were performed independently by two reviewers. Selected models were externally validated in the large Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) cohort in the Netherlands. Retinopathy risk was calculated using baseline data and compared with retinopathy incidence over 5 years. Calibration after intercept adjustment and discrimination (Harrell's C statistic) were assessed. RESULTS Twelve studies were included in the systematic review, reporting on 16 models. Outcomes ranged from referable retinopathy to blindness. Discrimination was reported in seven studies with C statistics ranging from 0.55 (95% CI 0.54, 0.56) to 0.84 (95% CI 0.78, 0.88). Five studies reported on calibration. Eight models could be compared head-to-head in the DCS cohort (N = 10,715). Most of the models underestimated retinopathy risk. Validating the models against different severities of retinopathy, C statistics ranged from 0.51 (95% CI 0.49, 0.53) to 0.89 (95% CI 0.88, 0.91). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION Several prognostic models can accurately predict retinopathy risk in a population-based type 2 diabetes cohort. Most of the models include easy-to-measure predictors enhancing their applicability. Tailoring retinopathy screening frequency based on accurate risk predictions may increase the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of diabetic retinopathy care. REGISTRATION PROSPERO registration ID CRD42018089122.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amber A van der Heijden
- Department of General Practice and Elderly Care Medicine, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC - location VUmc, van der Boechorststraat 7, 1081 BT, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
| | - Giel Nijpels
- Department of General Practice and Elderly Care Medicine, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC - location VUmc, van der Boechorststraat 7, 1081 BT, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Fariza Badloe
- Department of General Practice and Elderly Care Medicine, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC - location VUmc, van der Boechorststraat 7, 1081 BT, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Heidi L Lovejoy
- Department of General Practice and Elderly Care Medicine, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC - location VUmc, van der Boechorststraat 7, 1081 BT, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Linda M Peelen
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Talitha L Feenstra
- Groningen Research Institute of Pharmacy, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
- Centre for Nutrition, Prevention and Health Services, Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Karel G M Moons
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Roderick C Slieker
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC - location VUmc, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- Department of Cell and Chemical Biology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Ron M C Herings
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC - location VUmc, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- PHARMO Institute for Drug Outcomes Research, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Petra J M Elders
- Department of General Practice and Elderly Care Medicine, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC - location VUmc, van der Boechorststraat 7, 1081 BT, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Joline W Beulens
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC - location VUmc, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
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