Model-based investigations of different vector-related intervention strategies to eliminate visceral leishmaniasis on the Indian subcontinent

Challenges of using modelling evidence in the visceral leishmaniasis elimination programme in India

As India comes closer to the elimination of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) as a public health problem, surveillance efforts and elimination targets must be continuously revised and strengthened. Mathematical modelling is a compelling research discipline for informing policy and programme design in its capacity to project incidence across space and time, the likelihood of achieving benchmarks, and the impact of different interventions. To gauge the extent to which modelling informs policy in India, this qualitative analysis explores how and whether policy makers understand, value, and reference recently produced VL modelling research. Sixteen semi-structured interviews were carried out with both users- and producers- of VL modelling research, guided by a knowledge utilisation framework grounded in knowledge translation theory. Participants reported that barriers to knowledge utilisation include 1) scepticism that models accurately reflect transmission dynamics, 2) failure of modellers to apply their analyses to specific programme operations, and 3) lack of accountability in the process of translating knowledge to policy. Political trust and support are needed to translate knowledge into programme activities, and employment of a communication intermediary may be a necessary approach to improve this process.

Indoor residual spraying for the control of visceral leishmaniasis: A systematic review

Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) is one of the interventions to control the vectors of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL). Different insecticides are used in affected countries, also in the Regional Initiative for the Elimination of VL in South-East Asia. This systematic review assesses all available studies analysing the effectiveness of IRS on the key vectors of VL. The systematic review followed PRISMA guidelines, with a broad search strategy, applied to seven key databases. Inclusion criteria were studies focusing on 1) Visceral leishmaniasis 2) Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) or synonyms, and 3) all primary research methods. 21 studies were included, five cluster randomised controlled trials (cRCTs), one randomised controlled trial (RCT), 11 intervention studies, also included were three modelling studies and one survey. 19 out of 21 included studies were published between 2009 and 2020. 18 of the studies were conducted in the context of the Regional Initiative. Effects of IRS on vector populations are positive, confirmed in terms of effectiveness and by the availability of studies. Deltamethrin and alpha-Cypermethrin reduce total sandfly counts, and/or Phlebotomus argentipes counts by up to 95% with an effect of a minimum of one month. Prolonged effects are not regularly seen. DDT has been used in India only: whereas in the 1990s a good effect could be measured, this effect waned over time. Two intervention studies, embedded in larger programmes in 2019 and 2020, replaced DDT with alpha-Cypermethrin throughout the study. Combinations of different interventions are not systematically researched, however showing some promising results, for example for the combination of IRS and Temephos. Constant monitoring of insecticide resistancies and quality delivery of IRS are confirmed as key issues for programmes. No human transmission data are available to directly relate an effect of IRS-although modelling studies confirm the effect of IRS on human transmission. Concluding, IRS continues to be an effective intervention for Phlebotomus argentipes control. Delivery requires constant monitoring and quality assurance. Further studies need to assess IRS in different geographical areas affected by VL and combinations of interventions.

Impact of IRS: Four-years of entomological surveillance of the Indian Visceral Leishmaniases elimination programme

Background

In 2005, Bangladesh, India and Nepal agreed to eliminate visceral leishmaniasis (VL) as a public health problem. The approach to this was through improved case detection and treatment, and controlling transmission by the sand fly vector Phlebotomus argentipes, with indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide. Initially, India applied DDT with stirrup pumps for IRS, however, this did not reduce transmission. After 2015 onwards, the pyrethroid alpha-cypermethrin was applied with compression pumps, and entomological surveillance was initiated in 2016.

Methods

Eight sentinel sites were established in the Indian states of Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. IRS coverage was monitored by household survey, quality of insecticide application was measured by HPLC, presence and abundance of the VL vector was monitored by CDC light traps, insecticide resistance was measured with WHO diagnostic assays and case incidence was determined from the VL case register KAMIS.

Results

Complete treatment of houses with IRS increased across all sites from 57% in 2016 to 70% of houses in 2019, rising to >80% if partial house IRS coverage is included (except West Bengal). The quality of insecticide application has improved compared to previous studies, average doses of insecticide on filters papers ranged from 1.52 times the target dose of 25mg/m² alpha-cypermethrin in 2019 to 1.67 times in 2018. Resistance to DDT has continued to increase, but the vector was not resistant to carbamates, organophosphates or pyrethroids. The annual and seasonal abundance of P. argentipes declined between 2016 to 2019 with an overall infection rate of 0.03%. This was associated with a decline in VL incidence for the blocks represented by the sentinel sites from 1.16 per 10,000 population in 2016 to 0.51 per 10,000 in 2019.

Conclusion

Through effective case detection and management reducing the infection reservoirs for P. argentipes in the human population combined with IRS keeping P. argentipes abundance and infectivity low has reduced VL transmission. This combination of effective case management and vector control has now brought India within reach of the VL elimination targets.

Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL), also known as kala-azar, is a major parasitic disease in South Asia (Indian subcontinent), with 85% of the disease incidence in India. Historically VL had been controlled and almost eliminated with Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) using dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). However, reinitiating this approach in 2015 failed due to high insecticide resistance in the sand fly vector and poor IRS quality, meaning that VL elimination targets were not met. To improve this the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme changed to an effective insecticide, alpha-cypermethrin and altered the mode of application to compression pumps. Sentinel sites were established to monitor the entomological indicators, these showed the positive impact of these changes from 2016 to 2019. During this period the overall incidence of disease has decreased, and India is now on track to reach it’s target incidence for VL of less than 1/1000 people at the sub-district (block) level.

Mathematical modelling of the use of insecticide-treated nets for elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in Bihar, India

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly neglected tropical disease caused by a parasite Leishmania donovani and spread by female sand flies Phlebotomus argentipes. There is conflicting evidence regarding the role of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) on the prevention of VL. Numerous studies demonstrated the effectiveness of ITNs. However, KalaNet, a large trial in Nepal and India did not support those findings. The purpose of this paper is to gain insight into the situation by mathematical modelling. We expand a mathematical model of VL transmission based on the KalaNet trial and incorporate the use of ITNs explicitly into the model. One of the major contributions of this work is that we calibrate the model based on the available epidemiological data, generally independent of the KalaNet trial. We validate the model on data collected during the KalaNet trial. We conclude that in order to eliminate VL, the ITN usage would have to stay above 96%. This is higher than the 91% ITNs use at the end of the trial which may explain why the trial did not show a positive effect from ITNs. At the same time, our model indicates that asymptomatic individuals play a crucial role in VL transmission.

Complexity and critical thresholds in the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis

We study a general multi-host model of visceral leishmaniasis including both humans and animals, and where host and vector characteristics are captured via host competence along with vector biting preference. Additionally, the model accounts for spatial heterogeneity in human population and heterogeneity in biting behaviour of sandflies. We then use parameters for visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent as an example and demonstrate that the model exhibits backward bifurcation, i.e. it has a human infection and a sandfly population threshold, characterized by a bi-stable region. These thresholds shift as a function of host competence, host population size, vector feeding preference, spatial heterogeneity, biting heterogeneity and control efforts. In particular, if control is applied through human treatment a new and lower human infection threshold is created, making elimination difficult to achieve, before eventually the human infection threshold no longer exists, making it impossible to control the disease by only reducing the infection levels below a certain threshold. A better strategy would be to reduce the human infection below a certain threshold potentially by early diagnosis, control animal population levels and keep the vector population under check. Spatial heterogeneity in human populations lowers the overall thresholds as a result of weak migration between patches.

Analysis of the IGS rRNA Region and Applicability for Leishmania (V.) braziliensis Characterization

The causative species is an important factor influencing the evolution of American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL). Due to its wide distribution in endemic areas, Leishmania (V.) braziliensis is considered one of the most important species in circulation in Brazil. Molecular targets derived from ribosomal RNA (rRNA) were used in studies to identify Leishmania spp.; however, the Intergenic Spacer (IGS) region has not yet been explored in parasite species differentiation. Besides, there is a shortage of sequences deposited in public repositories for this region. Thus, it was proposed to analyze and provide sequences of the IGS rRNA region from different Leishmania spp. and to evaluate their potential as biomarkers to characterize L. braziliensis. A set of primers was designed for complete amplification of the IGS rRNA region of Leishmania spp. PCR products were submitted to Sanger sequencing. The sequences obtained were aligned and analyzed for size and similarity, as well as deposited in GenBank. Characteristics of the repetitive elements (IGSRE) present in the IGS rRNA were also verified. In addition, a set of primers for L. braziliensis identification for qPCR was developed and optimized. Sensitivity (S), specificity (σ), and efficiency (ε) tests were applied. It was found that the mean size for the IGS rRNA region is 3 kb, and the similarity analysis of the sequences obtained demonstrated high conservation among the species. It was observed that the size for the IGSRE repetitive region varies between 61 and 71 bp, and there is a high identity between some species. Fifteen sequences generated for the IGS rRNA partial region of nine different species were deposited in GenBank so far. The specific primer system for L. braziliensis showed S = 10 fg, ε = 98.08%, and logσ = 10³ for Leishmania naiffi; logσ = 10⁴ for Leishmania guyanensis; and logσ = 10⁵ for Leishmania shawi. This protocol system can be used for diagnosis, identification, and quantification of a patient's parasite load, aiding in the direction of a more appropriate therapeutic management to the cases of infection by this etiological agent. Besides that, the unpublished sequences deposited in databases can be used for multiple analyses in different contexts.

Probability of false-negative results in microscopical detection of cutaneous leishmaniasis: more accurate screening by kDNA-PCR during epidemiological survey

Leishmaniasis has an important impact on global public health, and the common form of the disease is cutaneous form as well in Iran. Different species of Leishmania parasite make variable clinical manifestations, so prompt diagnosis and recognition at the species level are important due to their impact on the treatment and outcome of the disease. We aimed to examine the potential existence of the Leishmania parasite genome in the exudate materials derived from lesions of the cutaneous leishmaniasis suspected patients referred to Varamin Health Center Laboratory, that were reported negative microscopically. Regarding the object of the study, kDNA-Nested-PCR was used. A 570 bp band equal to what expected for Leishmania major was amplified in 18 out of 29 tested samples (62%). Findings indicate the effectivness of kDNA as a high copy number gene to avoid false-negative results.

Visceral leishmaniasis on the Indian Subcontinent: Efficacy of fipronil-based cattle treatment in controlling sand fly populations is dependent on specific aspects of sand fly ecology

BACKGROUND

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly disease transmitted by the sand fly Phlebotomus argentipes on the Indian subcontinent, with a promising means of vector control being orally treating cattle with fipronil-based drugs. While prior research investigating the dynamic relationship between timing of fipronil-based control schemes and the seasonality of sand flies provides insights into potential of treatment on a large scale, ecological uncertainties remain. We investigated how uncertainties associated with sand fly ecology might affect our ability to assess efficacy of fipronil-based control schemes. To do this, we used a previously-described, individual-based, stochastic sand fly model to quantify how uncertainties associated with 1) the percentage of female sand flies taking blood meals from cattle, and 2) the percentage of female sand flies ovipositing in organic matter containing feces from treated cattle might impact the efficacy of fipronil-based sand fly control schemes.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Assuming no prior knowledge of sand fly blood meal and oviposition sites, the probabilities of achieving effective sand fly population reduction with treatments performed 3, 6 and 12 times per year were ≈5-22%, ≈27-36%, and ≈46-54%, respectively. Assuming ≥50% of sand flies feed on cattle, probabilities of achieving efficacious control increased to ≈8-31%, ≈15-42%, and ≈52-65%. Assuming also that ≥50% of sand flies oviposit in cattle feces, the above probabilities increased further to ≈14-53%, ≈31-81%, and ≈89-97%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our assessments of the efficacy of fipronil-based cattle treatments in controlling sand fly populations depend on our assumptions regarding key aspects of sand fly ecology. Assessments are most sensitive to assumptions concerning the percentage of sand flies ovipositing in feces of treated cattle, thus emphasizing the importance of identifying sand fly oviposition sites. Our results place the evaluation of fipronil-based cattle treatment within a broader ecological context, which could aid in the planning and execution of a largescale field trial.

Policy Recommendations From Transmission Modeling for the Elimination of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent

Background

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the World Health Organization (WHO) and 5 countries in the Indian subcontinent for elimination as a public health problem. To achieve this target, the WHO has developed guidelines consisting of 4 phases of different levels of interventions, based on vector control through indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) and active case detection (ACD). Mathematical transmission models of VL are increasingly used for planning and assessing the efficacy of interventions and evaluating the intensity and timescale required to achieve the elimination target.

Methods

This paper draws together the key policy-relevant conclusions from recent transmission modeling of VL, and presents new predictions for VL incidence under the interventions recommended by the WHO using the latest transmission models.

Results

The model predictions suggest that the current WHO guidelines should be sufficient to reach the elimination target in areas that had medium VL endemicities (up to 5 VL cases per 10000 population per year) prior to the start of interventions. However, additional interventions, such as extending the WHO attack phase (intensive IRS and ACD), may be required to bring forward elimination in regions with high precontrol endemicities, depending on the relative infectiousness of different disease stages.

Conclusions

The potential hurdle that asymptomatic and, in particular, post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis cases may pose to reaching and sustaining the target needs to be addressed. As VL incidence decreases, the pool of immunologically naive individuals will grow, creating the potential for new outbreaks.

Visceral leishmaniasis: Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and drivers underlying the hotspots in Muzaffarpur, Bihar, India

BACKGROUND

Despite the overall decrease in visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence on the Indian subcontinent, there remain spatiotemporal clusters or 'hotspots' of new cases. The characteristics of these hotspots, underlying transmission dynamics, and their importance for shaping control strategies are not yet fully understood and are investigated in this study for a VL endemic area of ~100,000 inhabitants in Bihar, India between 2007-2015.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

VL incidence (cases/10,000/year) dropped from 12.3 in 2007 to 0.9 in 2015, which is just below the World Health Organizations' threshold for elimination as a public health problem. Clustering of VL was assessed between subvillages (hamlets), using multiple geospatial and (spatio)temporal autocorrelation and hotspot analyses. One to three hotspots were identified each year, often persisting for 1-5 successive years with a modal radius of ~500m. The relative risk of having VL was 5-86 times higher for inhabitants of hotspots, compared to those living outside hotspots. Hotspots harbour significantly more households from the two lowest asset quintiles (as proxy for socio-economic status). Overall, children and young adelescents (5-14 years) have the highest risk for VL, but within hotspots and at the start of outbreaks, older age groups (35+ years) show a comparable high risk.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study demonstrates significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in VL incidence at subdistrict level. The association between poverty and hotspots confirms that VL is a disease of 'the poorest of the poor' and age patterns suggest a potential role of waning immunity as underlying driver of hotspots. The recommended insecticide spraying radius of 500m around detected VL cases corresponds to the modal hotspot radius found in this study. Additional data on immunity and asymptomatic infection, and the development of spatiotemporally explicit transmission models that simulate hotspot dynamics and predict the impact of interventions at the smaller geographical scale will be crucial tools in sustaining elimination.

The role of case proximity in transmission of visceral leishmaniasis in a highly endemic village in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is characterised by a high degree of spatial clustering at all scales, and this feature remains even with successful control measures. VL is targeted for elimination as a public health problem in the Indian subcontinent by 2020, and incidence has been falling rapidly since 2011. Current control is based on early diagnosis and treatment of clinical cases, and blanket indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) in endemic villages to kill the sandfly vectors. Spatially targeting active case detection and/or IRS to higher risk areas would greatly reduce costs of control, but its effectiveness as a control strategy is unknown. The effectiveness depends on two key unknowns: how quickly transmission risk decreases with distance from a VL case and how much asymptomatically infected individuals contribute to transmission.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

To estimate these key parameters, a spatiotemporal transmission model for VL was developed and fitted to geo-located epidemiological data on 2494 individuals from a highly endemic village in Mymensingh, Bangladesh. A Bayesian inference framework that could account for the unknown infection times of the VL cases, and missing symptom onset and recovery times, was developed to perform the parameter estimation. The parameter estimates obtained suggest that, in a highly endemic setting, VL risk decreases relatively quickly with distance from a case-halving within 90m-and that VL cases contribute significantly more to transmission than asymptomatic individuals.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

These results suggest that spatially-targeted interventions may be effective for limiting transmission. However, the extent to which spatial transmission patterns and the asymptomatic contribution vary with VL endemicity and over time is uncertain. In any event, interventions would need to be performed promptly and in a large radius (≥300m) around a new case to reduce transmission risk.

Current Visceral Leishmaniasis Research: A Research Review to Inspire Future Study

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), one of the deadliest parasitic diseases in the world, causes more than 50,000 human deaths each year and afflicts millions of people throughout South America, East Africa, South Asia, and Mediterranean Region. In 2015 the World Health Organization classified VL as a neglected tropical disease (NTD), prompting concentrated study of the VL epidemic using mathematical and simulation models. This paper reviews literature related to prevalence and prevention control strategies. More than thirty current research works were reviewed and classified based on VL epidemic study methods, including modeling approaches, control strategies, and simulation techniques since 2013. A summarization of these technical methods, major findings, and contributions from existing works revealed that VL epidemic research efforts must improve in the areas of validating and verifying VL mathematical models with real-world epidemic data. In addition, more dynamic disease control strategies must be explored and advanced simulation techniques must be used to predict VL pandemics.

Bionomics of Phlebotomus argentipes in villages in Bihar, India with insights into efficacy of IRS-based control measures

Background

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly vector-borne disease. Approximately 90% of Indian VL cases occur in Bihar, where the sand fly, Phlebotomus argentipes, is the principal vector. Sand fly control in Bihar consists of indoor residual spraying (IRS), the practice of spraying the inner walls of village dwellings with insecticides. Prior researchers have evaluated success of IRS-control by estimating vector abundance in village houses, but the number of sampling periods (n = 2–3) were minimal, and outdoor-resting P. argentipes were neglected. We describe a large-scale field study, performed in 24 villages within two Bihari districts, during which P. argentipes were collected biweekly over 47-weeks, in cattle enclosures, houses, and outdoors in peri-domestic vegetation. The objectives of this study were to provide updated P. argentipes ecological field data, and determine if program-initiated IRS-treatment had led to noticeable differences in vector abundance.

Principal findings

P. argentipes (n = 126,901) relative abundance was greatest during the summer months (June-August) when minimum temperatures were highest. P. argentipes were most frequently collected from cattle enclosures (~46% total; ~56% blood fed). Many sand flies were found to have taken blood from multiple sources, with ~81% having blood fed on humans and ~60% blood feeding on bovines. Nonparametric statistical tests were determined most appropriate for evaluating IRS-treatment. Differences in P. argentipes abundance in houses, cattle enclosures and vegetation were detected between IRS-treated and untreated villages in only ~9% of evaluation periods occurring during the peak period of human-vector exposure (June-August) and in ~8% of the total observations. No significant differences were detected between the numbers of P. argentipes collected in vegetation close to the experimental villages.

Conclusion

The results of this study provide updated data regarding P. argentipes seasonal abundance, spatial distribution, and host preferances, and suggest vector abundance has not significantly declined in IRS-treated villages. We suggest that IRS be supplemented with vector control strategies targeting exophagic, exophilic P. argentipes, and that disease surveillance be accompanied by rigorous vector population monitoring.

Visceral leishmaniasis is a disease caused by a deadly vector-borne parasite (Leishmania donovani) transmitted to man by phlebotomine sand flies. Indoor residual spraying (IRS), performed within village dwellings, is the primary means of sand fly control performed in Bihar, India and more explicit methods of evaluating the success of control are warranted. A field-based study was conducted to collect ecological sand fly data for use in evaluating the effectiveness of IRS in reducing relative sand fly abundance. Results indicate that sand flies blood feed primarily on humans and cattle and are most frequently found within cattle enclosures. Results further suggest IRS-treatment has a limited impact on vector density. Our approach incorporates detailed evaluation of sand fly spatial distribution (cattle enclosures, houses, vegetation), seasonal fluctuations in abundance, host blood meal preferences within Bihari villages, and dates of IRS performed within treated villages. Hence, this study provides an explicit means of monitoring vector populations and evaluating control measures in Bihar.

Challenges in modeling complexity of neglected tropical diseases: a review of dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in resource limited settings

OBJECTIVES

Neglected tropical diseases (NTD), account for a large proportion of the global disease burden, and their control faces several challenges including diminishing human and financial resources for those distressed from such diseases. Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), the second-largest parasitic killer (after malaria) and an NTD affects poor populations and causes considerable cost to the affected individuals. Mathematical models can serve as a critical and cost-effective tool for understanding VL dynamics, however, complex array of socio-economic factors affecting its dynamics need to be identified and appropriately incorporated within a dynamical modeling framework. This study reviews literature on vector-borne diseases and collects challenges and successes related to the modeling of transmission dynamics of VL. Possible ways of creating a comprehensive mathematical model is also discussed.

METHODS

Published literature in three categories are reviewed: (i) identifying non-traditional but critical mechanisms for VL transmission in resource limited regions, (ii) mathematical models used for dynamics of Leishmaniasis and other related vector borne infectious diseases and (iii) examples of modeling that have the potential to capture identified mechanisms of VL to study its dynamics.

RESULTS

This review suggests that VL elimination have not been achieved yet because existing transmission dynamics models for VL fails to capture relevant local socio-economic risk factors. This study identifies critical risk factors of VL and distribute them in six categories (atmosphere, access, availability, awareness, adherence, and accedence). The study also suggests novel quantitative models, parts of it are borrowed from other non-neglected diseases, for incorporating these factors and using them to understand VL dynamics and evaluating control programs for achieving VL elimination in a resource-limited environment.

CONCLUSIONS

Controlling VL is expensive for local communities in endemic countries where individuals remain in the vicious cycle of disease and poverty. Smarter public investment in control programs would not only decrease the VL disease burden but will also help to alleviate poverty. However, dynamical models are necessary to evaluate intervention strategies to formulate a cost-effective optimal policy for eradication of VL.

Adaptation of a malaria surveillance system for use in a visceral leishmaniasis elimination programme

Background

Successful public practice relies on generation and use of high-quality data. A data surveillance system (the Disease Data Management System [DDMS]) in use for malaria was adapted for use in the Indian visceral leishmaniasis elimination programme.

Methods

A situational analysis identified the data flows in current use. Taxonomic trees for the vector of visceral leishmaniasis in India, Phlebotomus argentipes, were incorporated into the DDMS to allow entry of quality assurance and insecticide susceptibility data. A new quality assurance module was created to collate the concentration of DDT that was applied to walls during the indoor residual spraying (IRS) vector control programme.

Results

The DDMS was implemented in Bihar State and used to collate and manage data from sentinel sites in eight districts. Quality assurance data showed that DDT was under-applied to walls during IRS; this, combined with insecticide susceptibility data showing widespread vector resistance to DDT prompted a national policy change to using compression pumps and alpha-cypermethrin insecticide for IRS.

Conclusions

The adapted DDMS centralises programmatic data and enhances evidence-based decision making and active policy change. Moving forward, further modules of the system will be implemented, allowing extended data capture and streamlined transmission of key information to decision makers.

A Mathematical Study to Control Visceral Leishmaniasis: An Application to South Sudan

In this manuscript, we propose and analyze a compartmental model of visceral leishmaniasis (VL). We model the human population with six compartments including asymptomatic, symptomatic and PKDL-infected, animal population as second host and sandfly population as the vector. Furthermore, the non-adult stage of the sandfly population is introduced in the system, which was not considered before in the literature. We show that the increase in the number of host of sandfly population generates a backward bifurcation. Thus, multiple hosts will cause disease persistence even if the basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) is below unity. We perform a sensitivity analysis of important model parameters with respect to some epidemiologically significant responses. We validate our model by calibrating it to weekly VL incidence data from South Sudan for the year 2013. We perform cost-effectiveness analysis on different interventions: treatment, non-adult control, adult control and their different layered combinations based on their implementation cost (in USD) and case reduction. We also use a global sensitivity analysis technique to understand the effect of important parameters of our model on the implementation cost of different controls. This cost-effectiveness study and cost-sensitivity analysis are relatively new in existing literature of this disease.

Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of predictions from three transmission models

We present three transmission models of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) with structural differences regarding the disease stage that provides the main contribution to transmission, including models with a prominent role of asymptomatic infection, and fit them to recent case data from 8 endemic districts in Bihar, India. Following a geographical cross-validation of the models, we compare their predictions for achieving the WHO VL elimination targets with ongoing treatment and vector control strategies. All the transmission models suggest that the WHO elimination target (<1 new VL case per 10,000 capita per year at sub-district level) is likely to be met in Bihar, India, before or close to 2020 in sub-districts with a pre-control incidence of 10 VL cases per 10,000 people per year or less, when current intervention levels (60% coverage of indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide and a delay of 40days from onset of symptoms to treatment (OT)) are maintained, given the accuracy and generalizability of the existing data regarding incidence and IRS coverage. In settings with a pre-control endemicity level of 5/10,000, increasing the effective IRS coverage from 60 to 80% is predicted to lead to elimination of VL 1-3 years earlier (depending on the particular model), and decreasing OT from 40 to 20days to bring elimination forward by approximately 1year. However, in all instances the models suggest that L. donovani transmission will continue after 2020 and thus that surveillance and control measures need to remain in place until the longer-term aim of breaking transmission is achieved.

Optimal combinations of control strategies and cost-effective analysis for visceral leishmaniasis disease transmission

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly neglected tropical disease that poses a serious problem in various countries all over the world. Implementation of various intervention strategies fail in controlling the spread of this disease due to issues of parasite drug resistance and resistance of sandfly vectors to insecticide sprays. Due to this, policy makers need to develop novel strategies or resort to a combination of multiple intervention strategies to control the spread of the disease. To address this issue, we propose an extensive SIR-type model for anthroponotic visceral leishmaniasis transmission with seasonal fluctuations modeled in the form of periodic sandfly biting rate. Fitting the model for real data reported in South Sudan, we estimate the model parameters and compare the model predictions with known VL cases. Using optimal control theory, we study the effects of popular control strategies namely, drug-based treatment of symptomatic and PKDL-infected individuals, insecticide treated bednets and spray of insecticides on the dynamics of infected human and vector populations. We propose that the strategies remain ineffective in curbing the disease individually, as opposed to the use of optimal combinations of the mentioned strategies. Testing the model for different optimal combinations while considering periodic seasonal fluctuations, we find that the optimal combination of treatment of individuals and insecticide sprays perform well in controlling the disease for the time period of intervention introduced. Performing a cost-effective analysis we identify that the same strategy also proves to be efficacious and cost-effective. Finally, we suggest that our model would be helpful for policy makers to predict the best intervention strategies for specific time periods and their appropriate implementation for elimination of visceral leishmaniasis.

Leishmania infections: Molecular targets and diagnosis

Progress in the diagnosis of leishmaniases depends on the development of effective methods and the discovery of suitable biomarkers. We propose firstly an update classification of Leishmania species and their synonymies. We demonstrate a global map highlighting the geography of known endemic Leishmania species pathogenic to humans. We summarize a complete list of techniques currently in use and discuss their advantages and limitations. The available data highlights the benefits of molecular markers in terms of their sensitivity and specificity to quantify variation from the subgeneric level to species complexes, (sub) species within complexes, and individual populations and infection foci. Each DNA-based detection method is supplied with a comprehensive description of markers and primers and proposal for a classification based on the role of each target and primer in the detection, identification and quantification of leishmaniasis infection. We outline a genome-wide map of genes informative for diagnosis that have been used for Leishmania genotyping. Furthermore, we propose a classification method based on the suitability of well-studied molecular markers for typing the 21 known Leishmania species pathogenic to humans. This can be applied to newly discovered species and to hybrid strains originating from inter-species crosses. Developing more effective and sensitive diagnostic methods and biomarkers is vital for enhancing Leishmania infection control programs.

Progress in the Mathematical Modelling of Visceral Leishmaniasis

The leishmaniases comprise a complex of diseases characterized by clinical outcomes that range from self-limiting to chronic, and disfiguring and stigmatizing to life threatening. Diagnostic methods, treatments, and vector and reservoir control options exist, but deciding the most effective interventions requires a quantitative understanding of the population level infection and disease dynamics. The effectiveness of any set of interventions has to be determined within the context of operational conditions, including economic and political commitment. Mathematical models are the best available tools for studying quantitative systems crossing disciplinary spheres (biology, medicine, economics) within environmental and societal constraints. In 2005, the World Health Assembly and government health ministers of India, Nepal, and Bangladesh signed a Memorandum of Understanding to eliminate the life threatening form of leishmaniasis, visceral leishmaniasis (VL), on the Indian subcontinent by 2015 through a combination of early case detection, improved treatments, and vector control. The elimination target is <1 case/10,000 population at the district or subdistrict level compared to the current 20/10,000 in the regions of highest transmission. Towards this goal, this chapter focuses on mathematical models of VL, and the biology driving those models, to enable realistic predictions of the best combination of interventions. Several key issues will be discussed which have affected previous modelling of VL and the direction future modelling may take. Current understanding of the natural history of disease, immunity (and loss of immunity), and stages of infection and their durations are considered particularly for humans, and also for dogs. Asymptomatic and clinical infection are discussed in the context of their relative roles in Leishmania transmission, as well as key components of the parasite-sandfly-vector interaction and intervention strategies including diagnosis, treatment and vector control. Gaps in current biological knowledge and potential avenues to improve model structures and mathematical predictions are identified. Underpinning the marriage between biology and mathematical modelling, the content of this chapter represents the first step towards developing the next generation of models for VL.

Entomological efficacy of durable wall lining with reduced wall surface coverage for strengthening visceral leishmaniasis vector control in Bangladesh, India and Nepal

Background

New methods for controlling sand fly are highly desired by the Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) elimination program of Bangladesh, India and Nepal for its consolidation and maintenance phases. To support the program we investigated safety, efficacy and cost of Durable Wall Lining to control sand fly.

Methods

This multicentre randomized controlled study in Bangladesh, India and Nepal included randomized two intervention clusters and one control cluster. Each cluster had 50 households except full wall surface coverage (DWL-FWSC) cluster in Nepal which had 46 households. Ten of 50 households were randomly selected for entomological activities except India where it was 6 households. Interventions were DWL-FWSC and reduced wall surface coverage (DWL-RWSC) with DWL which covers 1.8 m and 1.5 m height from floor respectively. Efficacy was measured by reduction in sand fly density by intervention and sand fly mortality assessment by the WHO cone bioassay test at 1 month after intervention. Trained field research assistants interviewed household heads for socio-demographic information, knowledge and practice about VL, vector control, and for their experience following the intervention. Cost data was collected using cost data collection tool which was designed for this study. Statistical analysis included difference-in-differences estimate, bivariate analysis, Poisson regression model and incremental cost-efficacy ratio calculation.

Results

Mean sand fly density reduction by DWL-FWSC and DWL-RWSC was respectively −4.96 (95 % CI, −4.54, −5.38) and −5.38 (95 % CI, −4.89, −5.88). The sand fly density reduction attributed by both the interventions were statistically significant after adjusting for covariates (IRR = 0.277, p < 0.001 for DWL-RWSC and IRR = 0.371, p < 0.001 for DWL-FWSC). The efficacy of DWL-RWSC and DWL-FWSC on sand fly density reduction was statistically comparable (p = 0.214). The acceptability of both interventions was high. Transient burning sensations, flash on face and itching were most common adverse events and were observed mostly in Indian site. There was no serious adverse event. DWL-RWSC is cost-saving compared to DWL-FWSC. The incremental cost-efficacy ratio was −6.36, where DWL-RWSC dominates DWL-FWSC.

Conclusions

DWL-RWSC intervention is safe, efficacious, cost-saving and cost-effective in reducing indoor sand fly density. The VL elimination program in the Indian sub-continent may consider DWL-RWSC for sand fly control for its consolidation and maintenance phases.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1881-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Visceral Leishmaniasis on the Indian Subcontinent: Modelling the Dynamic Relationship between Vector Control Schemes and Vector Life Cycles

Background

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a disease caused by two known vector-borne parasite species (Leishmania donovani, L. infantum), transmitted to man by phlebotomine sand flies (species: Phlebotomus and Lutzomyia), resulting in ≈50,000 human fatalities annually, ≈67% occurring on the Indian subcontinent. Indoor residual spraying is the current method of sand fly control in India, but alternative means of vector control, such as the treatment of livestock with systemic insecticide-based drugs, are being evaluated. We describe an individual-based, stochastic, life-stage-structured model that represents a sand fly vector population within a village in India and simulates the effects of vector control via fipronil-based drugs orally administered to cattle, which target both blood-feeding adults and larvae that feed on host feces.

Principle findings

Simulation results indicated efficacy of fipronil-based control schemes in reducing sand fly abundance depended on timing of drug applications relative to seasonality of the sand fly life cycle. Taking into account cost-effectiveness and logistical feasibility, two of the most efficacious treatment schemes reduced population peaks occurring from April through August by ≈90% (applications 3 times per year at 2-month intervals initiated in March) and >95% (applications 6 times per year at 2-month intervals initiated in January) relative to no control, with the cumulative number of sand fly days occurring April-August reduced by ≈83% and ≈97%, respectively, and more specifically during the summer months of peak human exposure (June-August) by ≈85% and ≈97%, respectively.

Conclusions

Our model should prove useful in a priori evaluation of the efficacy of fipronil-based drugs in controlling leishmaniasis on the Indian subcontinent and beyond.

Visceral leishmaniasis is a disease caused by a virulent vector-borne parasite transmitted to man by phlebotomine sand flies. Fipronil-based drugs, administered to cattle orally, provide a potential means of sand fly control by permeating in cattle blood and being excreted in cattle feces, targeting adult females feeding on cattle blood and larvae feeding on cattle feces, respectively. An agent-based, stochastic simulation model was developed to represent sand fly population dynamics in a village in Bihar, India, at all developmental stages, with the goal of predicting the impact of various vector control strategies, utilizing drug treated cattle, on vector population numbers. Results indicate that success of treatment is dependent on the number of treatments applied annually and the seasonality of the sand fly lifecycle. Results further suggest that treatment schemes are most effective in reducing vector populations when high drug efficacy is maintained in cattle feces during periods of high larval density. Our approach incorporates detailed representation of the vector population and provides an explicit representation of the effects of insecticide application on adult and larval sand flies. Hence, this model predicts treatment schemes that may have the greatest potential to reduce sand fly numbers.

Transmission Dynamics of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent - A Systematic Literature Review

Background

As Bangladesh, India and Nepal progress towards visceral leishmaniasis (VL) elimination, it is important to understand the role of asymptomatic Leishmania infection (ALI), VL treatment relapse and post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) in transmission.

Methodology/ Principal Finding

We reviewed evidence systematically on ALI, relapse and PKDL. We searched multiple databases to include studies on burden, risk factors, biomarkers, natural history, and infectiveness of ALI, PKDL and relapse. After screening 292 papers, 98 were included covering the years 1942 through 2016. ALI, PKDL and relapse studies lacked a reference standard and appropriate biomarker. The prevalence of ALI was 4–17-fold that of VL. The risk of ALI was higher in VL case contacts. Most infections remained asymptomatic or resolved spontaneously. The proportion of ALI that progressed to VL disease within a year was 1.5–23%, and was higher amongst those with high antibody titres. The natural history of PKDL showed variability; 3.8–28.6% had no past history of VL treatment. The infectiveness of PKDL was 32–53%. The risk of VL relapse was higher with HIV co-infection. Modelling studies predicted a range of scenarios. One model predicted VL elimination was unlikely in the long term with early diagnosis. Another model estimated that ALI contributed to 82% of the overall transmission, VL to 10% and PKDL to 8%. Another model predicted that VL cases were the main driver for transmission. Different models predicted VL elimination if the sandfly density was reduced by 67% by killing the sandfly or by 79% by reducing their breeding sites, or with 4–6y of optimal IRS or 10y of sub-optimal IRS and only in low endemic setting.

Conclusion/ Significance

There is a need for xenodiagnostic and longitudinal studies to understand the potential of ALI and PKDL as reservoirs of infection.

The role of asymptomatic Leishmania infection (ALI), PKDL and VL relapse in transmission is unclear as VL elimination is achieved in the Indian subcontinent. ALI, PKDL and relapse studies lacked a reference standard and appropriate biomarker. ALI was 4–17-fold more prevalent than VL. The risk of ALI was higher in VL case contacts. Most infections remained asymptomatic or resolved spontaneously. The natural history of PKDL showed variability. Twenty nine percent had no past history of VL treatment. The risk of VL relapse was higher with HIV co-infection. Modelling studies predicted different effects. Early diagnosis was unlikely to eliminate VL in the long term. ALI was predicted to contribute to 82% of the overall transmission, VL to 10% and PKDL to 8%. Another model predicted that VL cases were the main driver for transmission. VL elimination was predicted if the sandfly density was reduced by 67% by killing the sandfly or by 79% by reducing their breeding sites, or with 4–6y of optimal IRS or 10y of sub-optimal IRS and only in low endemic setting. There is a need for more studies to fully understand the potential of ALI and PKDL as reservoirs of infection.

Understanding the transmission dynamics of Leishmania donovani to provide robust evidence for interventions to eliminate visceral leishmaniasis in Bihar, India

Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected vector-borne disease. In India, it is transmitted to humans by Leishmania donovani-infected Phlebotomus argentipes sand flies. In 2005, VL was targeted for elimination by the governments of India, Nepal and Bangladesh by 2015. The elimination strategy consists of rapid case detection, treatment of VL cases and vector control using indoor residual spraying (IRS). However, to achieve sustained elimination of VL, an appropriate post elimination surveillance programme should be designed, and crucial knowledge gaps in vector bionomics, human infection and transmission need to be addressed. This review examines the outstanding knowledge gaps, specifically in the context of Bihar State, India.The knowledge gaps in vector bionomics that will be of immediate benefit to current control operations include better estimates of human biting rates and natural infection rates of P. argentipes, with L. donovani, and how these vary spatially, temporally and in response to IRS. The relative importance of indoor and outdoor transmission, and how P. argentipes disperse, are also unknown. With respect to human transmission it is important to use a range of diagnostic tools to distinguish individuals in endemic communities into those who: 1) are to going to progress to clinical VL, 2) are immune/refractory to infection and 3) have had past exposure to sand flies.It is crucial to keep in mind that close to elimination, and post-elimination, VL cases will become infrequent, so it is vital to define what the surveillance programme should target and how it should be designed to prevent resurgence. Therefore, a better understanding of the transmission dynamics of VL, in particular of how rates of infection in humans and sand flies vary as functions of each other, is required to guide VL elimination efforts and ensure sustained elimination in the Indian subcontinent. By collecting contemporary entomological and human data in the same geographical locations, more precise epidemiological models can be produced. The suite of data collected can also be used to inform the national programme if supplementary vector control tools, in addition to IRS, are required to address the issues of people sleeping outside.

Measures to Control Phlebotomus argentipes and Visceral Leishmaniasis in India

Visceral leishmaniasis is a deadly parasitic disease that is transmitted via the bite of a female sand fly, Phlebotomus argentipes. The highest burden of this disease is in northern India. In 2005, India embarked on an initiative with Nepal, Bangladesh, and the World Health Organization to eliminate visceral leishmaniasis by 2015. With the goal of 1 case in 10,000 people still unmet, it is prudent to evaluate the tools that have been used thus far to reduce vector numbers and cases of the disease. Herein, we present a review of studies conducted on vector-control strategies in India to combat visceral leishmaniasis including indoor residual spraying, insecticide-treated bed nets, environmental modification, and feed-through insecticides. This review suggests that the quality of indoor residual spraying may enhance control measures while a combination of spraying, nets, and feed-through insecticides would best confront the diverse habitats of P. argentipes.

Health-seeking behaviour, diagnostics and transmission dynamics in the control of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent

Countries in the Indian subcontinent have committed to reducing the incidence of kala-azar, a clinical manifestation of visceral leishmaniasis, to below 1 in 10,000 by 2020. We address the role of timing of use and accuracy of diagnostics in kala-azar control and elimination. We use empirical data on health-seeking behaviour and health-system performance from the Indian state of Bihar, Bangladesh and Nepal to parameterize a mathematical model. Diagnosis of cases is key to case management, control and surveillance. Treatment of cases prevents onward transmission, and we show that the differences in time to diagnosis in these three settings explain the observed differences in incidence. Shortening the time from health-care seeking to diagnosis is likely to lead to dramatic reductions in incidence in Bihar, bringing the incidence down to the levels seen in Bangladesh and Nepal. The results emphasize the importance of maintaining population and health-system awareness, particularly as transmission and disease incidence decline. We explore the possibility of diagnosing patients before the onset of clinical kala-azar (before 14 days fever), and show that this could have a marked impact on incidence, even for a moderately sensitive test. However, limited specificity (that results in false positives) is a major barrier to such a strategy. Diagnostic tests of high specificity used at an early stage of active infection, even if sensitivity is only moderate, could have a key role in the control of kala-azar, and prevent its resurgence when paired with the passive health-care system and tests of high sensitivity, such as the test for rK39 antibody response.

Quantification of the natural history of visceral leishmaniasis and consequences for control

Background

Visceral leishmaniasis has been targeted for elimination as a public health problem (less than 1 case per 10,000 people per year) in the Indian sub-continent by 2017. However, there is still a high degree of uncertainty about the natural history of the disease, in particular about the duration of asymptomatic infection and the proportion of asymptomatically infected individuals that develop clinical visceral leishmaniasis. Quantifying these aspects of the disease is key for guiding efforts to eliminate visceral leishmaniasis and maintaining elimination once it is reached.

Methods

Data from a detailed epidemiological study in Bangladesh in 2002–2004 was analysed to estimate key epidemiological parameters. The role of diagnostics in determining the probability and rate of progression to clinical disease was estimated by fitting Cox proportional hazards models. A multi-state Markov model of the natural history of visceral leishmaniasis was fitted to the data to estimate the asymptomatic infection period and the proportion of asymptomatic individuals going on to develop clinical symptoms.

Results

At the time of the study, individuals were taking several months to be diagnosed with visceral leishmaniasis, leading to many opportunities for ongoing transmission. The probability of progression to clinical disease was strongly associated with initial seropositivity and even more strongly with seroconversion, with most clinical symptoms developing within a year. The estimated average durations of asymptomatic infection and symptomatic infection for our model of the natural history are 147 days (95 % CI 130–166) and 140 days (95 % CI 123–160), respectively, and are significantly longer than previously reported estimates. We estimate from the data that 14.7 % (95 % CI 12.6-20.0 %) of asymptomatic individuals develop clinical symptoms—a greater proportion than previously estimated.

Conclusions

Extended periods of asymptomatic infection could be important for visceral leishmaniasis transmission, but this depends critically on the relative infectivity of asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals to sandflies. These estimates could be informed by similar analysis of other datasets. Our results highlight the importance of reducing times from onset of symptoms to diagnosis and treatment to reduce opportunities for transmission.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1136-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

DDT-based indoor residual spraying suboptimal for visceral leishmaniasis elimination in India

Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is used to control visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in India, but it is poorly quality assured. Quality assurance was performed in eight VL endemic districts in Bihar State, India, in 2014. Residual dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) was sampled from walls using Bostik tape discs, and DDT concentrations [grams of active ingredient per square meter (g ai/m(2))] were determined using HPLC. Pre-IRS surveys were performed in three districts, and post-IRS surveys were performed in eight districts. A 20% threshold above and below the target spray of 1.0 g ai/m(2) was defined as "in range." The entomological assessments were made in four districts in IRS and non-IRS villages. Vector densities were measured: pre-IRS and 1 and 3 mo post-IRS. Insecticide susceptibility to 4% DDT and 0.05% deltamethrin WHO-impregnated papers was determined with wild-caught sand flies. The majority (329 of 360, 91.3%) of pre-IRS samples had residual DDT concentrations of <0.1 g ai/m(2). The mean residual concentration of DDT post-IRS was 0.37 g ai/m(2); 84.9% of walls were undersprayed, 7.4% were sprayed in range, and 7.6% were oversprayed. The abundance of sand flies in IRS and non-IRS villages was significantly different at 1 mo post-IRS only. Sand flies were highly resistant to DDT but susceptible to deltamethrin. The Stockholm Convention, ratified by India in 2006, calls for the complete phasing out of DDT as soon as practical, with limited use in the interim where no viable IRS alternatives exist. Given the poor quality of the DDT-based IRS, ready availability of pyrethroids, and susceptibility profile of Indian sand flies, the continued use of DDT in this IRS program is questionable.

Uniting mathematics and biology for control of visceral leishmaniasis

The neglected tropical disease (NTD) visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the WHO for elimination as a public health problem on the Indian subcontinent by 2017 or earlier. To date there is a surprising scarcity of mathematical models capable of capturing VL disease dynamics, which are widely considered central to planning and assessing the efficacy of interventions. The few models that have been developed are examined, highlighting the necessity for better data to parameterise and fit these and future models. In particular, the characterisation and infectiousness of the different disease stages will be crucial to elimination. Modelling can then assist in establishing whether, when, and how the WHO VL elimination targets can be met.

Recent advances in phlebotomine sand fly research related to leishmaniasis control

Phlebotomine sand flies are the subject of much research because of the role of their females as the only proven natural vectors of Leishmania species, the parasitic protozoans that are the causative agents of the neglected tropical disease leishmaniasis. Activity in this field was highlighted by the eighth International Symposium on Phlebotomine Sand flies (ISOPS) held in September 2014, which prompted this review focusing on vector control. Topics reviewed include: Taxonomy and phylogenetics, Vector competence, Genetics, genomics and transcriptomics, Eco-epidemiology, and Vector control. Research on sand flies as leishmaniasis vectors has revealed a diverse array of zoonotic and anthroponotic transmission cycles, mostly in subtropical and tropical regions of Africa, Asia and Latin America, but also in Mediterranean Europe. The challenge is to progress beyond descriptive eco-epidemiology, in order to separate vectors of biomedical importance from the sand fly species that are competent vectors but lack the vectorial capacity to cause much human disease. Transmission modelling is required to identify the vectors that are a public health priority, the ones that must be controlled as part of the integrated control of leishmaniasis. Effective modelling of transmission will require the use of entomological indices more precise than those usually reported in the leishmaniasis literature.