Enabling countries to manage outbreaks: statistical, operational, and contextual analysis of the early warning and response system (EWARS-csd) for dengue outbreaks

Introduction

Dengue is currently the fastest-spreading mosquito-borne viral illness in the world, with over half of the world's population living in areas at risk of dengue. As dengue continues to spread and become more of a health burden, it is essential to have tools that can predict when and where outbreaks might occur to better prepare vector control operations and communities' responses. One such predictive tool, the Early Warning and Response System for climate-sensitive diseases (EWARS-csd), primarily uses climatic data to alert health systems of outbreaks weeks before they occur. EWARS-csd uses the robust Distribution Lag Non-linear Model in combination with the INLA Bayesian regression framework to predict outbreaks, utilizing historical data. This study seeks to validate the tool's performance in two states of Colombia, evaluating how well the tool performed in 11 municipalities of varying dengue endemicity levels.

Methods

The validation study used retrospective data with alarm indicators (mean temperature and rain sum) and an outbreak indicator (weekly hospitalizations) from 11 municipalities spanning two states in Colombia from 2015 to 2020. Calibrations of different variables were performed to find the optimal sensitivity and positive predictive value for each municipality.

Results

The study demonstrated that the tool produced overall reliable early outbreak alarms. The median of the most optimal calibration for each municipality was very high: sensitivity (97%), specificity (94%), positive predictive value (75%), and negative predictive value (99%; 95% CI).

Discussion

The tool worked well across all population sizes and all endemicity levels but had slightly poorer results in the highly endemic municipality at predicting non-outbreak weeks. Migration and/or socioeconomic status are factors that might impact predictive performance and should be further evaluated. Overall EWARS-csd performed very well, providing evidence that it should continue to be implemented in Colombia and other countries for outbreak prediction.

Epidemiological, Serological, and Entomological Investigation of New Visceral Leishmaniasis Foci in Nepal

The aim of this study was to explore epidemiological, serological, entomological, and social aspects of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in new foci in Nepal. The study was conducted in 11 villages of five districts that had been previously free of VL but that reported new cases between 2019 and 2021. We screened 1,288 inhabitants using rK39 tests and investigated the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 12 recent VL cases. A total of 182 community members were interviewed about knowledge, attitude, and practices regarding VL. They then underwent an awareness training; 40 of them had a second interview at 6 months to assess the training impact. Vector surveys were conducted in six houses per village to assess sandfly density and infection rates. The prevalence of VL infection was 0.5% and 3.2% among screened populations in Dolpa and Kavre districts, respectively, while the other districts had no rK39-positive cases. No association between travel history and VL infection was found. Phlebotomus argentipes sandflies were collected in three districts at high altitudes (from 1,084 to 4,450 m). None of the sandflies captured had Leishmania donovani DNA. People in new foci were not aware of VL symptoms, vectors, or preventive measures. The training significantly improved their knowledge and practice in seeking medical care in case of illness. The epidemiological, serological, and entomological investigations suggest indigenous focal transmission of VL. An integrated package of strategic interventions should be implemented by the national VL elimination program in districts with new VL foci.

Epidemiological, serological, and entomological aspects of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in suspected new VL foci in Bangladesh

The study aimed to explore epidemiological, serological, and entomological aspects of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in suspected new VL foci and assess the knowledge, attitude, and practices of the community living in the alleged new VL foci. The study investigated new visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases reported between 2019 and 2020 in four sub-districts (Dharmapasha, Hakimpur, Islampur and Savar) where we tested 560 members using the rK39 rapid test and conducted vector collections in six neighbouring houses of the index cases to assess sandfly density and distribution, examined sandflies' infection, and determined the spatial relationship with VL infection. Furthermore, we highlighted the importance of early detection, and community awareness in controlling the spread of the disease. The study screened 1078 people from 231 households in the four sub-districts for fever, history of visceral leishmaniasis (VL), and PKDL-like skin lesions. Among sub-districts, positivity rate for rK39 rapid test was highest (3.5 %) in Savar. Sandflies were present across all areas except in Dharmapasha, but all 21 collected female P. argentipes sandflies were negative for Leishmania parasite DNA. We found one person from Islampur with a history of VL, and one from Islampur and another one from Savar had PKDL. After the awareness intervention, more people became familiar with VL infection (91.2 %), and their knowledge concerning sandflies being the vector of the disease and the risk of having VL increased significantly (30.1 %). The study found no active case in the suspected new foci, but some asymptomatic individuals were present. As sandfly vectors exist in these areas, the National Kala-azar Elimination Programme (NKEP) should consider these areas as kala-azar endemic and initiate control activities as per national guidelines.

Assessment of the impact of implementation research on the Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) elimination efforts in Nepal

Nepal, Bangladesh, and India signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in 2005 to eliminate visceral leishmaniasis (VL) as a public health problem from the Indian subcontinent by 2015. By 2021, the number of reported VL cases in these countries had declined by over 95% compared to 2007. This dramatic success was achieved through an elimination programme that implemented early case detection and effective treatment, vector control, disease surveillance, community participation, and operational research that underpinned these strategies. The experience offered an opportunity to assess the contribution of implementation research (IR) to VL elimination in Nepal. Desk review and a stakeholder workshop was conducted to analyse the relationship between key research outputs, major strategic decisions in the national VL elimination programme, and annual number of reported new cases over time between 2005 and 2023. The results indicated that the key decisions across the strategic elements, throughout the course of the elimination programme (such as on the most appropriate tools for diganostics and treatment, and on best strategies for case finding and vector management), were IR informed. IR itself responded dynamically to changes that resulted from interventions, addressing new questions that emerged from the field. Close collaboration between researchers, programme managers, and implementers in priority setting, design, conduct, and review of studies facilitated uptake of evidence into policy and programmatic activities. VL case numbers in Nepal are now reduced by 90% compared to 2005. Although direct attribution of disease decline to research outputs is difficult to establish, the Nepal experience demonstrates that IR can be a critical enabler for disease elimination. The lessons can potentially inform IR strategies in other countries with diseases targeted for elimination.

Assessment of treatment outcomes of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) treated cases and impact of COVID-19 on VL management and control services in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has largely impacted the management of Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), like several other Neglected Tropical Diseases. The impact was particularly evident in Lower and Middle-Income countries where the already inadequate healthcare resources were diverted to managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Bangladesh achieved the elimination target for VL in 2016. To sustain this success, early diagnosis and treatment, effective vector control, and periodic surveillance are paramount. However, the specific control measures for VL in Bangladesh that were hampered during COVID-19 and their extent are unknown.

METHODS

This study aimed at identifying the gaps and challenges in the follow-up of treated VL patients by interviewing both the treated VL cases and their health service providers. We followed VL cases treated between 2019 and 2020 in five VL endemic subdistricts (upazilas) both retrospectively and prospectively to monitor clinical improvement, relapse, or other consequences. Moreover, interviews were conducted with the health service providers to assess the impact of COVID-19 on VL case detection, treatment, reporting, vector control operations, and logistic supply chain management.

RESULTS

There was no added delay for VL diagnosis; however, VL treatment initiation and reporting time increased almost two-fold due to COVID-19. Indoor Residual Spraying activity was significantly hampered due to a shortage of insecticides. Out of 44 enrolled and treated VL patients, two relapsed (4.5 %), two developed Para Kala-Azar Dermal Leishmaniasis (4.5 %), and three (6.8 %) Post Kala-Azar Dermal Leishmaniasis (PKDL). The health service providers highlighted patients` unwillingness to visit the hospital, financial constraints, and distance from the hospitals as the main reasons for missed follow-up visits (20.5 %). Building good communication in the community, awareness schemes, and incentive-based approaches were suggested as possible solutions to mitigate these problems.

CONCLUSION

Long-term follow-up is required for the early detection and management of VL relapse and PKDL cases. Effective vector control measures, capacity development, and identification of new VL hotspots are pivotal in the VL endemic regions to sustain the elimination goal.

Long-Term Efficacy of Insecticidal Wall Painting for Controlling Visceral Leishmaniasis Vectors in Bangladesh

The success of the visceral leishmaniasis (VL) elimination program largely depends on cost-effective vector control measures. Our goal was to investigate the longevity of the efficacy of insecticidal wall painting (IWP), a new vector control tool, compared with a routine indoor residual spraying (IRS) program for reducing the VL vector density in Bangladesh. This study is the extension of our recent IWP study for VL vector management in Bangladesh, which was undertaken in seven highly VL endemic villages of the Mymensingh district with a 12-month follow-up. In this 24-months follow-up study, we collected sand flies additionally at 15, 18, 21, and 24 months since the interventions from the IWP and control (where the program did routine IRS) clusters to examine the longevity of the efficacy of IWP on sand fly density reduction and mortality. The difference-in-differences regression models were used to estimate the effect of IWP on sand fly reduction against Program IRS. The IWP showed excellent performance in reducing sand fly density and increasing sand fly mortality compared with Program IRS. The effect of IWP for controlling sand flies was statistically significant for up to at least 24 months. The mean female Phlebotomus argentipes density reduction ranged from -56% to -83%, and the P. argentipes sand fly mortality ranged from 81% to 99.5% during the 24-month follow-up period. Considering the duration of the efficacy of IWP for controlling VL vectors, Bangladesh National Kala-azar Elimination Program may consider IWP as the best alternative to IRS for the subsequent phases of the program.

Follow-up assessment of visceral leishmaniasis treated patients and the impact of COVID-19 on control services in Nepal

BACKGROUND

Follow-up assessment of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) treated cases is important to monitor the long term effectiveness of treatment regimens. The main objective of this study was to identify the gaps and challenges in the follow-up of treated VL cases, to monitor treatment outcome and to assess the impact of COVID-19 on VL elimination services and activities.

METHODS

Clinicians treating VL patients, district focal persons for VL, and patients treated for VL in seven high endemic districts in Nepal during 2019-2022 were interviewed to collect data on challenges in the follow-up of VL treated patients as per national strategy.

RESULTS

Follow up status was poor in two districts with the largest number of reported cases. The majority of cases were children under 10 years of age (44.2%). Among 104 VL treated cases interviewed, 60.6% mentioned that clinicians had called them for follow-up but only 37.5% had complied. Among 112 VL treated cases followed up, 8 (7.14%) had relapse and 2 (1.8%) had PKDL. Among 66 cases who had VL during the COVID-19 lock down period, 32 (48.5%) were diagnosed within 1 week; however, 10 (15.1%) were diagnosed only after 4 weeks or more. During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was no active search for VL because of budget constraints and lack of diagnostic tests, and no insecticide spraying was done.

CONCLUSION

Relapses and PKDL are challenges for VL elimination and a matter of concern. Successful implementation of the national strategy for follow up of treated VL cases requires addressing elements related to patients (awareness, transport, communication) clinicians (compliance) and organization of service delivery (local health worker training and deployment). COVID-19 did not have much impact on VL diagnosis and treatment; however, public health programmes including active case detection and insecticide spraying for vector control were severely reduced.

Visceral leishmaniasis in new foci areas of Nepal: Sources and extent of infection

Background & objectives

The successful elimination program of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Nepal decreased the incidence to less than 1 per 10,000 population leading to the consolidation phase. However, new VL cases have been recorded from new districts, threatening the elimination goal. This study monitors the geographical spread of VL and identifies potential risk factors.

Methods

VL data of 2017-2020 were obtained from the Epidemiology and Disease Control Division (EDCD) of Nepal and mapped. Telephonic interviews with 13 VL patients were conducted.

Results

The incidence maps indicate that VL is spreading to new areas. The target incidence exceeded four times in hilly and twice in mountainous districts. VL cases occurred in 64 of 77 districts in all three regions (mountainous, hilly and Terai). Interviews showed a correlation between travel history (private, commercial and for studies) and the spread of VL cases to new foci.

Interpretation & conclusion

One major challenge of VL elimination in the maintenance phase is the spread of infection through travelers to new foci areas, which needs to be under continuous surveillance accompanied by vector control activities. This should be confirmed by a large-scale analytical study.

Early warning and response system for dengue outbreaks: Moving from research to operational implementation in Mexico

Dengue disease epidemics have increased in time and space due to climatic and non-climatic factors such as urbanization. In the absence of an effective vaccine, preventing dengue outbreak relies on vector control activities. Employing computerized tools to predict outbreaks and respond in advance has great potential for improving dengue disease control. Evidence of integrating or implementing such applications into control programs and their impact are scarce, and endemic countries demand for experience sharing and know-how transfer. Mexico has extensive experience of pre-validated EWARS (Early Warning And Response System), a tool that was developed in 2012 as part of a collaboration with the Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases Unit (TDR) at the World Health Organization and used at national level. The advancement of EWARS since 2014 and its stepwise integration into the national surveillance system has increased the appreciation of the need for integrated surveillance (including disease, vector and climate surveillance), and for linking inter-institutional and trans-sectoral information for holistic epidemiological intelligence. The integration of the EWARS software into the national surveillance platform in Mexico was a remarkable milestone and a successful experience. This manuscript describes the implementation process of EWARS in Mexico, which started in 2012 and further demonstrates benefits, threats, and opportunities of integrating EWARS into existing national surveillance programs.

Applicability of the Mexican ovitrap system for Aedes vector surveillance in Colombia

Ovitraps can detect Aedes vectors at an early stage and can serve as an alarm indicator for outbreak prediction. This study aimed to summarize the available literature about the ovitrap system and to determine its feasibility, required resources and costs when installing and maintaining this vector surveillance system in the municipality of Los Patios, Colombia. A scoping review to assess the role of ovitraps as a tool for Aedes vector surveillance was conducted. The subsequent fieldwork consisted of mapping the municipality, manufacturing, and installing 40 ovitraps in 10 blocks, revising them weekly for 4 weeks by two half-time employed vector control technicians, and carrying out a cost analysis. A total of 38 studies were included in this review showing that ovitraps had a better performance than other entomological surveillance methods and a positive correlation with other entomological and disease variables. From the field results over 4 weeks, a high proportion of positive ovitraps (80%, 90%, 75%, 97.5%) and positive blocks (100%) as well as a good acceptance by house owners (76.9%), were identified. Operational indicators such as average installation time of the ovitraps (10h15 m), weekly reading and reinstallation (on average 7h27 m) and the cost of the intervention (COL$1,142,304.47/US$297) were calculated. Literature shows that ovitraps are sensitive to detect the presence of Aedes mosquitoes, providing data efficiently and timely for outbreak prediction. The field testing showed it is an affordable and feasible method in the context of a Colombian municipality and similar endemic areas.

Risk of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya transmission in the metropolitan area of Cucuta, Colombia: cross-sectional analysis, baseline for a cluster-randomised controlled trial of a novel vector tool for water containers

BACKGROUND

Arbovirus diseases such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya are a public health threat in tropical and subtropical areas. In the absence of a vaccine or specific treatment, vector management (in this case the control of the primary vector Aedes aegypti) is the best practice to prevent the three diseases. A good understanding of vector behaviour, ecology, human mobility and water use can help design effective vector control programmes. This study collected baseline information on these factors for identifying the arbovirus transmission risk and assessed the requirements for a large intervention trial in Colombia.

METHODS

Baseline surveys were conducted in 5,997 households, randomly selected from 24 clusters (neighbourhoods with on average 2000 houses and 250 households inspected) in the metropolitan area of Cucuta, Colombia. The study established population characteristics including water management and mobility as well as larval-pupal indices which were estimated and compared in all clusters. Additionally, the study estimated disease incidence from two sources: self-reported dengue cases in the household survey and cases notified by the national surveillance system.

RESULTS

In all 24 study clusters similar social and demographic characteristics were found but the entomological indicators and estimated disease incidence rates varied. The entomological indicators showed a high vector infestation: House Index = 25.1%, Container Index = 12.3% and Breteau Index = 29.6. Pupae per person Index (PPI) as an indicator of the transmission risk showed a large range from 0.22 to 2.04 indicating a high transmission risk in most clusters. The concrete ground tanks for laundry -mostly outdoors and uncovered- were the containers with the highest production of Ae. aegypti as 86.3% of all 17,613 pupae were identified in these containers. Also, the annual incidence of dengue was high: 841.6 self-reported cases per 100,000 inhabitants and the dengue incidence notified by the National surveillance system was 1,013.4 cases per 100,000 in 2019. Only 2.2% of the households used container water for drinking. 40.3% of the study population travelled during the day (when Aedes mosquitoes bite) outside their clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

The production of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes occurred almost exclusively in concrete ground tanks for laundry (lavadero), the primary intervention target. The baseline study provides necessary evidence for the design and implementation of a cluster randomized intervention trial in Colombia.

Zika, Flavivirus and Malaria Antibody Cocirculation in Nigeria

Introduction. Arboviruses and malaria pose a growing threat to public health, affecting not only the general population but also immunocompromised individuals and pregnant women. Individuals in vulnerable groups are at a higher risk of severe complications from the co-circulation and transmission of ZIKV, malaria, and FLAVI fever. In sub-Saharan countries, such as Nigeria, these mosquito-borne infections have clinical presentations that overlap with other diseases (dengue, West Nile virus, and Japanese encephalitis, chikungunya, and O’nyong o’nyong virus), making them a diagnostic challenge for clinicians in regions where they co-circulate. Vertical transmission can have a devastating impact on maternal health and fetal outcomes, including an increased risk of fetal loss and premature birth. Despite the global recognition of the burden of malaria and arboviruses, particularly ZIKV and other flaviviruses, there is limited data on their prevalence in Nigeria. In urban settings, where these diseases are endemic and share common biological, ecological, and economic factors, they may impact treatment outcomes and lead to epidemiological synergy. Hence, it is imperative to conduct sero-epidemiological and clinical studies to better understand the disease burden and hidden endemicity, thereby enabling improved prevention and clinical management. Method. Serum samples collected from outpatients between December 2020 and November 2021 in three regions of Nigeria were tested for the presence of IgG antibody seropositivity against ZIKV and FLAVI using immunoblot serological assay. Results. The overall cohort co-circulation antibody seropositivity of ZIKV, FLAVI and malaria was 24.0% (209/871). A total of 19.2% (167/871) of the study participants had ZIKV-seropositive antibodies and 6.2% (54/871) were FLAVI-seropositive, while 40.0% (348/871) of the subjects had malaria parasite antigens. Regional analysis revealed that participants from the southern region had the highest antibody seropositivity against ZIKV (21.7% (33/152)) and FLAVI (8.6% (13/152)), whereas those from the central region had a higher malaria parasite antigen (68.5% (287/419)). Conclusions. This study represents the largest comparative cross-sectional descriptive sero-epidemiological investigation of ZIKV-FLAVI and malaria cocirculation in Nigeria. The findings of this study revealed increased antibody seropositivity, hidden endemicity, and the burden of ZIKV, FLAVI, and malaria co-circulating in Nigeria.

Antibody seropositivity and endemicity of chikungunya and Zika viruses in Nigeria

Mosquito-borne infections are of global health concern because of their rapid spread and upsurge, which creates a risk for coinfections. chikungunya virus (CHIKV), an arbovirus disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti or A. albopictus, and malaria, a parasitic disease transmitted by Anopheles gambiae, are prevalent in Nigeria and neighbouring countries, but their burden and possible coinfections are poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the antibody seropositivity and endemicity of chikungunya and Zika viruses (ZIKV) in three regions of Nigeria. A cross-sectional sero-survey was conducted on 871 participants. Samples were collected from outpatients by simple random sampling. Analyses of the samples were performed using recomLine Tropical Fever for the presence of antibody serological marker IgG immunoblot with CHIKV VLP (virus like particle), ZIKV NS1 and ZIKV Equad according to manufacturers’ instructions and malaria RDT for malaria parasite. There was a significantly higher antibody seropositivity against CHIKV in the central region than in the northern and southern regions (69.5%, 291/419), while ZIKV-seropositivity (22.4%, 34/152) and CHIKV-ZIKV co-circulating antibody seropositivity (17.8%, 27/152) were notably higher in the southern region than in the central and northern regions. This investigation revealed an unexpectedly high antibody seropositivity and concealed endemicity of CHIKV and ZIKV in three Nigerian regions. The seropositivity of detectable antibodies differed among the three geographical locations.

Response to Visceral Leishmaniasis Cases through Active Case Detection and Vector Control in Low-Endemic Hilly Districts of Nepal

The visceral leishmaniasis (VL) elimination program in Nepal has largely completed the attack phase and is moving toward consolidation and maintenance phases. New VL foci are, however, appearing in Nepal, and therefore new innovative community-centered strategies need to be developed and tested. We conducted early case detection by an index case-based approach and assessed the feasibility, efficacy, and cost of an intervention for sandfly control through indoor residual spraying (IRS) or insecticidal wall painting (IWP) in new and low-endemic districts Palpa and Surkhet. IRS was performed in 236 households and IWP in 178 households. We screened 1,239 and 596 persons in Palpa and Surkhet, respectively, resulting in the detection of one VL case in Palpa. Both IWP and IRS were well accepted, and the percentage reductions in sandfly density after 1, 9, and 12 months of intervention were 90%, 81%, and 75%, respectively, for IWP and 81%, 59%, and 63% respectively for IRS. The cost per household protected per year was USD 10.3 for IRS and 32.8 for IWP, although over a 2-year period, IWP was more cost-effective than IRS. Active case detection combined with sandfly control through IWP or IRS can support to VL elimination in the consolidation and maintenance phase.

The Early Warning and Response System (EWARS-TDR) for dengue outbreaks: can it also be applied to chikungunya and Zika outbreak warning?

BACKGROUND

In the Americas, endemic countries for Aedes-borne diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika face great challenges particularly since the recent outbreaks of CHIKV and ZIKV, all transmitted by the same insect vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. The Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR-WHO) has developed together with partners an Early Warning and Response System (EWARS) for dengue outbreaks based on a variety of alarm signals with a high sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV). The question is if this tool can also be used for the prediction of Zika and chikungunya outbreaks.

METHODOLOGY

We conducted in nine districts of Mexico and one large city in Colombia a retrospective analysis of epidemiological data (for the outbreak definition) and of climate and entomological data (as potential alarm indicators) produced by the national surveillance systems for dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreak prediction covering the following outbreak years: for dengue 2012-2016, for Zika 2015-2017, for chikungunya 2014-2016. This period was divided into a "run in period" (to establish the "historical" pattern of the disease) and an "analysis period" (to identify sensitivity and PPV of outbreak prediction).

RESULTS

In Mexico, the sensitivity of alarm signals for correctly predicting an outbreak was 100% for dengue, and 97% for Zika (chikungunya data could not be obtained in Mexico); the PPV was 83% for dengue and 100% for Zika. The time period between alarm and start of the outbreak (i.e. the time available for early response activities) was for Zika 4-5 weeks. In Colombia the sensitivity of the outbreak prediction was 92% for dengue, 93% for chikungunya and 100% for Zika; the PPV was 68% for dengue, 92% for chikungunya and 54% for Zika; the prediction distance was for dengue 3-5 weeks, for chikungunya 10-13 weeks and for Zika 6-10 weeks.

CONCLUSION

EWARS demonstrated promising capability of timely disease outbreak prediction with an operational design likely to improve the coordination among stakeholders. However, the prediction validity varied substantially across different types of diseases and appeared less optimal in low endemic settings.

Validation of the Early Warning and Response System (EWARS) for dengue outbreaks: Evidence from the national vector control program in Mexico

Background

During 2017, twenty health districts (locations) implemented a dengue outbreak Early Warning and Response System (EWARS) in Mexico, which processes epidemiological, meteorological and entomological alarm indicators to predict dengue outbreaks and triggers early response activities.

Out of the 20 priority districts where more than one fifth of all national disease transmission in Mexico occur, eleven districts were purposely selected and analyzed. Nine districts presented outbreak alarms by EWARS but without subsequent outbreaks (“non-outbreak districts”) and two presented alarms with subsequent dengue outbreaks (“outbreak districts”). This evaluation study assesses and compares the impact of alarm-informed response activities and the consequences of failing a timely and adequate response across the outbreak groups.

Methods

Five indicators of dengue outbreak response (larval control, entomological studies with water container interventions, focal spraying and indoor residual spraying) were quantitatively analyzed across two groups (”outbreak districts” and “non-outbreak districts”). However, for quality control purposes, only qualitative concluding remarks were derived from the fifth response indicator (fogging).

Results

The average coverage of vector control responses was significantly higher in non-outbreak districts and across all four indicators. In the “outbreak districts” the response activities started late and were of much lower intensity compared to “non-outbreak districts”. Vector control teams at districts-level demonstrated diverse levels of compliance with local guidelines for ‘initial’, ‘early’ and ‘late’ responses to outbreak alarms, which could potentially explain the different outcomes observed following the outbreak alarms.

Conclusion

Failing timely and adequate response of alarm signals generated by EWARS showed to negatively impact the disease outbreak control process. On the other hand, districts with adequate and timely response guided by alarm signals demonstrated successful records of outbreak prevention. This study presents important operational scenarios when failing or successding EWARS but warrants investigating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of EWARS using a more robust designs.

While the Early Warning and Response System (EWARS) for dengue and other vector-borne diseases has significantly advanced in methodologies and applications in more recent time, evidence from the field on the implications of EWARS in the context of vector control and response is still rare. Assessing the effectiveness (and cost) of EWARS in reducing or mitigating disease outbreaks entails complex study designs, including randomized controlled trials. This study employs a pragmatic validation design; comparing groups of outbreak and non-outbreak districts from the Mexican national vector control and response program for dengue, all districts with implemented EWARS and generated alerts. The study authors have illustrated and discussed important operational implications when failing or succeeding timely and adequate response to EWARS alerts, revealing that responding to EWARS alerts in time and space, during or beyond the routine vector control and response process can significantly reduce unnecessary outbreaks and hospitalizations.

Comparison of Novel Sandfly Control Interventions: A Pilot Study in Bangladesh

In this pilot comparative study, we investigated and compared the effects of existing vector control tools on sandfly densities and mortality to inform and support the National Kala-azar Elimination Program (NKEP). The interventions included insecticidal wall painting (IWP), reduced-coverage insecticidal durable wall lining (DWL), insecticide-impregnated bednets (ITN), and indoor residual spraying with deltamethrin (IRS). Sakhua union with seven villages was the study area, which was the most highly endemic visceral leishmaniasis union in Trishal upazila, Bangladesh. Each cluster containing the different interventions included approximately 50 households. Study methods included random selection of clusters, collection of sandfly by CDC light trap and manual aspirator to determine sandfly density, and sandfly mortality determined by WHO cone bioassay test. Trained field research assistants interviewed household heads using structured questionnaires for sociodemographic information, as well as safety and acceptability of the interventions. Descriptive and analytical statistical methods measured interventions' effect and its duration on sandfly density reduction and mortality. We measured the relative efficacy of IWP on sandfly control against DWL, ITN, and IRS by the difference-in-difference regression model. We found that existing interventions were effective and safe for sandfly control with different duration of effect and acceptability. The relative efficacy of IWP for sandfly reduction varied by -59% to -91%, -75% to -81%, and -30% to -104% compared with DWL, ITN, and IRS, respectively, at different time points during the 12-month follow-up. These study results will guide the NKEP for selection of sandfly control tool(s) in its subsequent consolidation and maintenance phases.

Mental health among displaced and non-displaced populations in Valledupar, Colombia: do inequalities continue?

During the long-lasting civil war in Colombia, thousands of people were displaced mainly from rural to urban areas, causing social disruption and prolonged poverty. This study aimed at analyzing the traumatic experience many years ago on the current psycho-emotional status of displaced families as well as the ongoing inequalities regarding displaced and non-displaced communities in one of the most affected areas by the armed conflict. An interview survey was conducted among 211 displaced families and 181 non-displaced families in 2 adjacent compounds in Valledupar, Colombia. The questionnaire used questions from the validated national survey and was revised and applied by staff members of the departmental secretary of health who conducted additional in-depth interviews. The study showed that the living conditions of the displaced community were precarious. The past traumatic events many years ago and the current difficult living conditions are associated with psychological problems being more frequent among the displaced people. The displaced people had experienced more violent acts and subsequently had a larger number of emotional symptoms (fright, headache, nervousness, depression, and sleeplessness). Other stress factors like economic problems, severe disease or death of family members and unemployment prevailed among displaced persons. The non-displaced lived in a more protected environment with less exposure to violence and stress, although belonging to a similarly low socio-economic stratum. It is recommended to take measures for a better protection of the displaced community, improve their access to the job market, offer different leisure activities and facilitate public transport.

Factors shaping the COVID-19 epidemic curve: a multi-country analysis

BACKGROUND

Lockdown measures are the backbone of containment measures for the COVID-19 pandemic both in high-income countries (HICs) and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, in view of the inevitably-occurring second and third global covid-19 wave, assessing the success and impact of containment measures on the epidemic curve of COVID-19 and people's compliance with such measures is crucial for more effective policies. To determine the containment measures influencing the COVID-19 epidemic curve in nine targeted countries across high-, middle-, and low-income nations.

METHODS

Four HICs (Germany, Sweden, Italy, and South Korea) and five LMICs (Mexico, Colombia, India, Nigeria, and Nepal) were selected to assess the association using interrupted time series analysis of daily case numbers and deaths of COVID-19 considering the following factors: The "stringency index (SI)" indicating how tight the containment measures were implemented in each country; and the level of compliance with the prescribed measures using human mobility data. Additionally, a scoping review was conducted to contextualize the findings.

RESULTS

Most countries implemented quite rigorous lockdown measures, particularly the LMICs (India, Nepal, and Colombia) following the model of HICs (Germany and Italy). Exceptions were Sweden and South Korea, which opted for different strategies. The compliance with the restrictions-measured as mobility related to home office, restraining from leisure activities, non-use of local transport and others-was generally good, except in Sweden and South Korea where the restrictions were limited. The endemic curves and time-series analysis showed that the containment measures were successful in HICs but not in LMICs.

CONCLUSION

The imposed lockdown measures are alarming, particularly in resource-constrained settings where such measures are independent of the population segment, which drives the virus transmission. Methods for examining people's movements or hardships that are caused by covid- no work, no food situation are inequitable. Novel and context-adapted approach of dealing with the COVID-19 crisis are therefore crucial.

The Covid-19 pandemic in low- and middle-income countries, who carries the burden? Review of mass media and publications from six countries

During the Covid-19 pandemic, rich countries employed lockdown and physical distancing policies for transmission control. However, the question still remains whether these measures are also suitable in countries with a fragile economy, which rests mainly on the informal sector. The impacts of lockdown measures in disadvantaged population strata in six low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) were reviewed using i) 93 media reports and ii) 17 published scientific papers. This review showed that those who suffered the most from the lockdown were migrants, workers in the large informal sector, small businesses, slum dwellers, women and elderly, revealing the social, cultural and economic inequalities of societies. Financial and food support for the poor was inadequate and sometimes mismanaged. In the better organized societies, the resilience was stronger (South Korea, Kerala/India) but here also the poor had to suffer the most. It is strongly recommended that outbreak response strategies should particularly focus on the poor and vulnerable population.

The use of mobile phones for the prevention and control of arboviral diseases: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

The rapid expansion of dengue, Zika and chikungunya with large scale outbreaks are an increasing public health concern in many countries. Additionally, the recent coronavirus pandemic urged the need to get connected for fast information transfer and exchange. As response, health programmes have -among other interventions- incorporated digital tools such as mobile phones for supporting the control and prevention of infectious diseases. However, little is known about the benefits of mobile phone technology in terms of input, process and outcome dimensions. The purpose of this scoping review is to analyse the evidence of the use of mobile phones as an intervention tool regarding the performance, acceptance, usability, feasibility, cost and effectiveness in dengue, Zika and chikungunya control programmes.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review of studies and reports by systematically searching: i) electronic databases (PubMed, PLOS ONE, PLOS Neglected Tropical Disease, LILACS, WHOLIS, ScienceDirect and Google scholar), ii) grey literature, using Google web and iii) documents in the list of references of the selected papers. Selected studies were categorized using a pre-determined data extraction form. Finally, a narrative summary of the evidence related to general characteristics of available mobile health tools and outcomes was produced.

RESULTS

The systematic literature search identified 1289 records, 32 of which met the inclusion criteria and 4 records from the reference lists. A total of 36 studies were included coming from twenty different countries. Five mobile phone services were identified in this review: mobile applications (n = 18), short message services (n=7), camera phone (n = 6), mobile phone tracking data (n = 4), and simple mobile communication (n = 1). Mobile phones were used for surveillance, prevention, diagnosis, and communication demonstrating good performance, acceptance and usability by users, as well as feasibility of mobile phone under real life conditions and effectiveness in terms of contributing to a reduction of vectors/ disease and improving users-oriented behaviour changes. It can be concluded that there are benefits for using mobile phones in the fight against arboviral diseases as well as other epidemic diseases. Further studies particularly on acceptance, cost and effectiveness at scale are recommended.

Housing structure including the surrounding environment as a risk factor for visceral leishmaniasis transmission in Nepal

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Nepal is found in 61 out of 75 districts including areas previously listed as non- endemic. This study focused on the role of housing conditions and its immediate environment in VL transmission, to limit future transmissions, ensure sustainable vector control and support the VL elimination program. The objective was to explore the risk factors in rural housing-and land lot typologies contributing to clinical VL occurrence and transmission. Housing structures and land lots were examined based on characteristics as risk factors of VL transmission in a case-control analysis. VL cases from 2013–2017 were identified based on the existing database from the Epidemiology and Disease Control Division and District Public Health Office from the plain Terai area (Morang, and Saptari districts) and hilly area (Palpa district) of Nepal. Two hundred and three built environments were analyzed (66 cases and 137 controls). Inferential statistics and logistic regression analysis were performed to determine the association of risk factors with VL. The risk factors with the highest odds of VL were: bamboo walls (adjusted odds ratio (AOR)- 8.1, 95% CI 2.40–27.63, p = 0.001), walls made of leaves/branches (AOR- 3.0, 95% CI 0.84–10.93, p = 0.090), cracks in bedroom walls (AOR- 2.9, 95% CI 0.93–9.19, p = 0.065), and placing sacks near sleeping areas (AOR- 19.2, 95% CI 4.06–90.46, p <0.001). Significant outdoor factors were: lots with Kadam trees (AOR- 12.7, 95% CI 3.28–49.09, p <0.001), open ground-outdoor toilets (AOR- 9.3, 95% CI 2.14–369.85, p = 0.003), moisture in outdoor toilet sheds (AOR- 18.09, 95% CI 7.25–451.01, p = 0.002), nearby- open land (AOR- 36.8, 95% CI 3.14–430.98, p = 0.004), moisture inside animal sheds (AOR- 6.9, 95% CI 1.82–26.66, p = 0.005), and surrounding animals/animals wastes particularly goats (AOR- 3.5, 95% CI 1.09–10.94, p = 0.036). Certain housing and surrounding environmental conditions and characteristics are risk factors for VL. Hence, elimination and educational programs should include the focus on housing improvement and avoidance of risk factors. Longitudinal interventional studies are required to document temporal relationships and whether interventions on these factors will have an impact on Leishmania transmission or burden.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a fatal disease if not treated in time. It is the disease of the poorest people. Poor housing and sanitation around the house are considered as the risk factors for the occurrence of VL. The main objective of our research was to explore multiple risk factors from different housing and land lot- typologies for VL occurrence and transmission through a case-control study. Some of our results reveal that inside the dwelling the likelihood of having clinical VL was substantially enhanced by providing suitable breeding sites for the insect vectors; as an example: the probability of getting VL disease was about ten times higher when there were sacks (empty or filled) near sleeping areas. Also cracks in walls and floors were found to contribute to vector transmission but also particular wall structures such as bamboo walls, and finishes such as animal manure were shown to be optimal for vector breeding. Furthermore, certain animals and plant types in the immediate environment seem to attract the vectors and to have a substantial effect on VL occurrence. Thus, given the alarming increase of VL in previously non-endemic areas of Nepal, these findings, among others, will allow readers and policymakers to better understand the “hidden” VL transmission factors, and will–hopefully- encourage initiating future studies.

Role of female community health volunteers for visceral leishmaniasis detection and vector surveillance in Nepal

Background: As visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has recently expanded in previously non-endemic areas of Nepal, the health system is facing new challenges. Female community health volunteers(FCHVs) are playing an important role for VL elimination in Nepal. This study aimed to analyze the actual and potential role of FCHVs for VL elimination program as well as community awareness of the disease (VL) and protective measures. Methods: We used a concurrent embedded mixed methods design. Qualitative data were collected through in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with FCHVs of 22 VLendemic villages of 3 districts. Concurrently quantitative data were collected through formal interviews of 203 household heads of the same villages. Results: FCHVs are able to perform their duties in an efficient way with the support of their families and specific incentives. FCHVs in the VL-endemic region have a good ability to recognize the VL suspects and refer to health facilities. The feedback by the district health office on referred patients was weak thus missing the opportunity of involving FCHVs in the 6-months follow up. In houses with a previous VL case knowledge levels of prevention and treatment ofVL were significantly better than in houses without a previous VL case. More people in houses with a former VL patient were aware on VL transmission. Conclusion: FCHVs are playing an important role for VL elimination in Nepal through detection of suspected cases and referral and may play a role in vector surveillance.

Needs assessment of emergency medical and rescue services in Abuja/Nigeria and environs

BACKGROUND

Nigeria is ranked second highest in the rate of road accidents and other emergencies (Deaths, disabilities) among 193 countries of the world. There is therefore the need for analyzing Emergency Medical Rescue Services (EMRS) in the country to identify options for improvement.

METHOD

The study was conducted from February, 2016 to March, 2017 in three EMRS organizations (FRSC, NEMA and MAITAMA Hospital) located in Abuja. The structure, resources, process of EMRS activities and outcome (delay times, case fatality as well as victims and service-providers satisfaction with services) were assessed through observation, time measurements and interviews.

RESULTS

FRSC and NEMA offers (Road Traffic Injury) RTI and Disaster services, the ambulances consist of Intensive Care Unit(ICU) buses, Helicopters, Speed boats, motorbikes and other specialized vehicles. Mortality and morbidity recorded for 2016 was 1.1 and 2% respectively. MAITAMA is a specialist centre that offers general medical services. A total number 1227(88.8%) lives were saved during the observational period by three organizations, 60(4.9%) deaths, 132 (9.6%) disabilities, 793 (57.2%) NCDs and 593(42.8%) RTI.

CONCLUSION

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) cause many deaths and morbidities in the developing world compared to infectious diseases. There is need for total revamping and education of EMRS institutions in Nigeria and Low- Middle Income Countries (LMICs). Abuja and its surroundings suffers from delays in rapid emergency services, lack of adequate awareness, functional ambulances, minimal specialists and inadequate consumables lead to the loss of many lives.

Integrating Case Detection of Visceral Leishmaniasis and Other Febrile Illness with Vector Control in the Post-Elimination Phase in Nepal

Nepal has completed the attack phase of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) elimination and now needs active case detection (ACD) and vector control methods that are suitable to the consolidation and maintenance phases. We evaluated different ACD approaches and vector control methods in Saptari district. We assessed 1) mobile teams deployed in villages with VL cases in 2015 to conduct combined camps for fever and skin lesions to detect VL/PKDL (post–kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis) and other infections; 2) an incentive approach by trained female community health volunteers (FCHVs) in villages with no VL cases in 2015. Both were followed by house-to-house visits. For vector control, four villages were randomly allocated to insecticide impregnation of bednets, insecticide wall painting, indoor residual spraying (IRS), and control. Sandfly density (by CDC light traps, The John W. Hock Company, USA) and mortality (World Health Organization cone bioassay) were assessed in randomly selected households. One VL, three tuberculosis, one leprosy, and one malaria cases were identified among 395 febrile cases attending the camps. Post-camp house-to-house screening involving 7,211 households identified 679 chronic fever and 461 skin lesion cases but no additional VL/PKDL. No VL/PKDL case was found by FCHVs. The point prevalence of chronic fever in camp and FCHV villages was 242 and 2 per 10,000 populations, respectively. Indoor residual spraying and bednet impregnation were effective for 1 month versus 12 months with insecticidal wall paint. Twelve-month sandfly mortality was 23%, 26%, and 80%, respectively, on IRS, bednet impregnation, and insecticide wall painting. In Nepal, fever camps and insecticidal wall paint prove to be alternative, sustainable strategies in the VL post-elimination program.

Intervention Packages for Early Visceral Leishmaniasis Case Detection and Sandfly Control in Bangladesh: A Comparative Analysis

We compared the efficacy of three intervention packages for active case detection (ACD) of visceral leishmaniasis (VL)/post–kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) combined with sandfly control around an index case. The packages were 1) no kala-azar transmission activity involving indoor residual spraying (IRS) with deltamethrin, peri-domestic deployment of larvicide with temephos, and house-to-house search for cases; 2) fever camp (FC) plus durable wall lining (DWL) with deltamethrin; and 3) FC plus insecticide (deltamethrin) impregnated bed-nets (ITN) around an index case. Fever camp includes 1-day campaign at the village level to screen and diagnose VL, PKDL, leprosy, malaria, and tuberculosis among residents with chronic fever or skin disease. Efficacy was measured through yield of new cases, vector density reduction, and mortality at 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months following intervention. Fever camp + DWL was the most efficacious intervention package with 0.5 case detected per intervention, 79% reduction in vector density (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.21, P = 0.010), and 95.1% (95% confidence interval: 93.4%, 96.8%) sandfly mortality at 12 months. No kala-azar transmission activity was efficacious for vector control (74% vector reduction, IRR = 0.26, P < 0.0001 at 9 months; and 84% sandfly mortality at 3 months), but not for case detection (0 case per intervention). Fever camp + ITN was efficacious in detection of VL/PKDL cases (0.43 case per intervention), but its efficacy for vector control was inconsistent. We recommend index case–based FC for ACD combined with DWL or IRS plus larvicide for sandfly control during the consolidation and maintenance phases of the VL elimination program of the Indian subcontinent.

Relationship of Serum Antileishmanial Antibody With Development of Visceral Leishmaniasis, Post-kala-azar Dermal Leishmaniasis and Visceral Leishmaniasis Relapse

Introduction

To sustain the achievement of kala-azar elimination program (KEP), early detection and treatment of the visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases and associated modalities such as treatment failure (TF), relapse VL (RVL), and Post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) is the cornerstone. A predictive biomarker for VL development and related complications could also play a crucial role in curtailing disease incidence and transmission. Investigations to find a biomarker with prospective capabilities are, however, scarce. Using samples and known clinical outcomes generated within two previous longitudinal cohort studies, we aimed to determine if fluctuations in serum anti-rK39 antibody levels could provide such predictive value.

Materials and Methods

Serum samples collected at four different time points (Baseline, 12, 18, and 24 months) from 16 patients who had developed VL within the monitoring period and 15 of their asymptomatic healthy controls counterparts were investigated. To investigate potential prediction of VL related complications, serum samples of 32 PKDL, 10 RVL, 07 TF, and 38 cured VL from a single dose AmBisome trial were analyzed. Of this second panel, all patients were monitored for 5 years and sera were collected at four time points (Baseline then 1, 6, and 12 months after treatment). The level of anti-rK39 antibodies in archived samples was measured by a semi-quantitative ELISA.

Results

The mean antibody level was significantly higher in VL patients compared to their asymptomatic healthy counterparts at each time point. Likewise, we observed a trend toward elevations in antibody levels for PKDL, RVL, TF relative to the reducing levels observed in cured VL. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis found a promising predictive power of rK39 antibody levels to reveal progression from asymptomatic Leishmania donovani infection stage to VL, defined as 87.5% sensitive and 95% specific. Following treatment, rk39 antibody notably showed 100% sensitivity and 95% specificity in predicting TF.

Conclusion

Our data indicate that the relative quantity of serum anti-rK39 antibody has promise within either a predictive or prognostic algorithm for VL and VL-related modalities. These could enable VL control programs to implement more effective measures to eliminate the disease. Further research is, however, imperative to standardize the rK39 antibody ELISA between sites prior to broader use.

Effect of insecticide-treated bed nets on visceral leishmaniasis incidence in Bangladesh. A retrospective cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a parasitic disease, transmitted by the sand fly species Phlebotomus argentipes in the Indian sub-continent. Effective vector control is highly desirable to reduce vector density and human and vector contact in the endemic communities with the aim to curtail disease transmission. We evaluated the effect of long lasting insecticide treated bed nets (LLIN) and bed nets impregnated with slow-release insecticide tablet K-O TAB 1-2-3 (jointly insecticide-treated nets or ITN) on VL incidence in a highly endemic sub-district (upazila) in Bangladesh.

METHODS

Several distributions of LLIN or K-O TAB 1-2-3 for self-impregnation of bed nets at home took place in Fulbaria upazila, Mymensigh district from 2004 to 2008 under three research projects, respectively funded by CDC, Atlanta, USA (2004) and WHO-TDR, Geneva, Switzerland (2006 & 2008). We included all households (n = 8142) in the 20 villages that had benefited in the past from one of these interventions (1295 donated LLIN and 11,918 local bed nets impregnated with K-O TAB 1-2-3) in the "exposed cohort". We recruited a "non-exposed cohort" in villages with contemporaneously similar incidence rates who had not received such vector control interventions (7729 HHs from nine villages). In both cohorts, we visited all families house to house and ascertained any VL cases for the 3 year period before and after the intervention. We evaluated the incidence rate (IR) of VL in both cohorts as primary endpoint, applying the difference-in-differences method.

RESULTS

The study identified 1011 VL cases (IR 140.47/10,000 per year [py]) before the intervention, of which 534 and 477 cases in the intervention and control areas respectively. The IR was 144.13/10,000 py (534/37050) and 136.59/10,000 py (477/34923) in the intervention and control areas respectively, with no significant difference (p = 0.3901) before the intervention. After the intervention, a total of 555 cases (IR 77.11/10,000 py) were identified of which 178 (IR 48.04/10,000 py) in the intervention and 377 (107.95/10,000 py) in the control area. The intervention area had a significant lower IR than the control area during follow up, rate difference = -59.91, p<0.0001. The IR during follow up was significantly reduced by 96.09/10,000 py in the intervention area (p<0.0001) and 28.63/10,000 py in control area (p<0.0001) compared to baseline. There was a strong and significant overall effect of the ITN intervention, δ = -67.45, p <0.0001. Sex (OR = 1.36, p<0.0001) and age (OR = 0.99, p<0.0001) also had a significant effect on VL incidence. Male had a higher risk of VL than female and one year increase in age decreased the likelihood of VL by about 0.92%. Two third of the VL incidence occurred in the age range 2 to 30 years (median age of VL patients was 17 years).

CONCLUSION

VL incidence rate was significantly lower in the ITN intervention cohort compared to control in Bangladesh. Some bias due to more intense screen-and-treat activities or other interventions in the intervention area cannot be ruled out. Nonetheless, given their feasibility and sustainability, ITNs should be considered for integrated vector control during the maintenance phase of the VL elimination programme.

Barriers of Visceral Leishmaniasis reporting and surveillance in Nepal: comparison of governmental VL-program districts with non-program districts

OBJECTIVES

At the time when Nepal is on the verge of reaching the maintenance phase of the Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) elimination program, the country is facing new challenges. The disease has expanded to 61 of the country's 75 districts including previously non-endemic areas where there is no control or patient management program in place. This study aimed to assess which elements of the surveillance and reporting systems need strengthening to identify cases at an early stage, prevent further transmission and ensure sustained VL elimination.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional mixed-method study, we collected data from two study populations in VL program and non-program districts. From February to May 2016, structured interviews were conducted with 40 VL patients, and 14 in-depth and semi-structured interviews were conducted with health managers.

RESULTS

The median total delay from onset of symptoms to successful reporting to the Ministry of Health was 68.5 days in the VL-program and 83 days in non-program districts. The difference in patient's delay from the onset of symptoms to seeking health care was 3 days in VL-program and 20 days in non-program districts. The diagnostic delay (38.5 days and 36 days, respectively), treatment delay (1 vs. 1 days) and reporting delay (45 vs. 36 days) were similar in program and non-program districts. The diagnostic delay increased three-fold from 2012, while treatment and reporting delay remained unchanged. The main barriers to surveillance were: (i) lack of access and awareness in non-program districts; (ii) growing private sector not included in and not participating to referral, treatment and reporting; (iii) lack of cooperation and coordination among stakeholders for training and deployment of interventions; (iv) insufficient validation, outreach and process optimisation of the reporting system.

CONCLUSIONS

Corrective measures are needed to maintain the achievements of the VL elimination campaign and prevent resurgence of the disease in Nepal. A clear patient referral structure, reinforcement of report notification and validation and direct relay of data by local hospitals and the private sector to the district health offices are needed to ensure prompt treatment and timely and reliable information to facilitate a responsive system of interventions.

A comparison of Zika and dengue outbreaks using national surveillance data in the Dominican Republic

BACKGROUND

Aedes-borne arboviruses continue to precipitate epidemics worldwide. In Dominican Republic, the appearance of Zika virus cases that closely followed a large dengue epidemic provided an opportunity to study the different transmission drivers behind these two flaviviruses. Retrospective datasets were used to collect information on the populations at risk and descriptive statistics were used to describe the outbreaks on a national scale.

METHODOLOGY/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Expectedly, box plots showed that 75% of dengue was reported in those aged <20 years while Zika infections were more widely dispersed among the population. Dengue attack rates were marginally higher among males at 25.9 per 10,000 population vs. 21.5 per 10,000 population for females. Zika infections appeared to be highly clustered among females (73.8% (95% CI 72.6%, 75.0%; p<0.05)); age-adjusted Zika attack rates among females were 7.64 per 10,000 population compared with 2.72 per 10,000 population among males. R0 calculations stratified by sex also showed a significantly higher metric among females: 1.84 (1.82, 1.87; p<0.05) when compared to males at 1.72 (1.69, 1.75; p<0.05). However, GBS attack rates stratified by sex revealed slightly higher risk in males vs. females, at 0.62 and 0.57 per 10,000 population respectively.

CONCLUSIONS/ SIGNIFICANCE

Evidence suggests little impact of existing dengue immunity on reported attack rates of Zika at the population level. Confounding of R0 and incident risk calculations by sex-specific over-reporting can alter the reliability of epidemiological metrics, which could be addressed using associated proxy syndromes or conditions to explore seemingly sex-skewed incidence. The findings indicate that community awareness campaigns, through influencing short-term health seeking behaviour, remain the most plausible mechanism behind increased reporting among women of reproductive age, although biological susceptibility cannot yet be ruled out. Media campaigns and screening are therefore recommended for women of reproductive age during Zika outbreaks. Future research should focus on clinical Zika outcomes among dengue seropositive individuals.

Indoor residual spraying for kala-azar vector control in Bangladesh: A continuing challenge

Background

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent is a fatal disease if left untreated. Between 1994 to 2013, the Ministry of Health of Bangladesh reported 1,09,266 cases of VL and 329 VL related deaths in 37 endemic districts. Indoor residual spraying (IRS) using dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) was used by the national programme in the 1960s to control malaria. Despite findings of research trials demonstrating that the synthetic pyrethroid deltamethrin 5 WP was very effective at reducing vector densities, no national VL vector control operations took place in Bangladesh between 1999 to early 2012. In 2012, IRS using deltamethrin 5 WP was re-introduced by the national programme, which consisted of pre-monsoon spraying in eight highly endemic sub-districts (upazilas). The present study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of IRS on VL vectors, as well as the process and performance of the spraying activities by national programme staff.

Methods

Five highly endemic upazilas of Mymensingh district were purposively selected (Fulbaria, Trishal, Mukthagacha, Gaforgaon and Bhaluka) to conduct the present study using the WHO/TDR monitoring and evaluation tool kit. IRS operations, conducted by 136 squads/teams, and 544 spraymen, were observed using check lists and questionnaires included in the WHO/TDR monitoring and evaluation tool kit. A household (HH) acceptability survey of IRS was conducted in all study areas using a structured questionnaire in 600 HHs. To measure the efficacy of IRS, pre-IRS (two weeks prior) and post-IRS (at one and five months after), vector density was measured using CDC light traps for two consecutive nights. Bioassays, using the WHO cone-method, were carried out in 80 HHs (40 sprayed and 40 unsprayed) to measure the effectiveness of the insecticide on sprayed surfaces.

Results

Of the 544 spraymen interviewed pre-IRS, 60%, 3% and 37% had received training for one, two and three days respectively. During spraying activities, 64% of the spraying squads had a supervisor in 4 upazilas but only one upazila (Mukthagacha) achieved 100% supervision of squads. Overall, 72.8% of the spraying squads in the study upazilas had informed HHs members to prepare their houses prior to spraying. The required personal protective equipment was not provided by the national programme during our observations and the spraying techniques used by all sprayers were sub-standard compared to the standard procedure mentioned in the M&E toolkit. In the HH interviews, 94.8% of the 600 respondents said that all their living rooms and cattle sheds had been sprayed. Regarding the effectiveness measurements (i.e. reduction of vector densities), a total of 4132 sand flies were trapped in three intervals, of which 3310 (80.1%) were P. argentipes; 46.5% (1540) males and 53.5% (1770) females. At one month post-IRS, P. argentipes densities were reduced by 22.5% but the 5 months post-IRS reduction was only 6.4% for both male and female. The bioassay tests showed a mean corrected mortality of P. argentipes sand flies at one month post-IRS of 87.3% which dropped to 74.5% at 4 months post-IRS in three upazilas, which is below the WHO threshold level (80%).

Conclusion

The national programme should conduct monitoring and evaluation activities to ensure high quality of IRS operations as a pre-condition for achieving a fast and sustained reduction in vector densities. This will continue to be important during the maintenance phase of VL elimination on the Indian subcontinent. Further research is needed to determine other suitable vector control option(s) when the case numbers are very low.

The visceral leishmaniasis (VL) elimination programme was launched in the Indian subcontinent (Bangladesh, India and Nepal) in 2005. Although the integrated vector management (IVM) system is one of the important elements highlighted in the Regional VL elimination strategy, indoor residual spraying (IRS) is the sole intervention practice that has been implemented. In fact, in Bangladesh from 1999 to early 2012, no VL vector control was used at all and pre-monsoon IRS was only re-introduced by the national programme in eight high endemic upazilas (sub-districts) in 2012. The present study monitored IRS operation in five upazilas (Fulbaria, Trishal, Mukthagacha, Gaforgaon and Bhaluka). Monitoring took place with the help of using observation check lists and questionnaires included in the WHO/TDR monitoring and evaluation tool kit. The study identified that training of spraymen was insufficient and a supervisor was not always present during spraying. The spraying techniques by all the sprayers were sub-standard. It was also found that all the required personal protective equipment was not provided by the national programme. It is recommended that the national programme should conduct monitoring and evaluation activities to ensure high quality of IRS operations in order to achieve maximum benefit.

Susceptibility of field-collected Phlebotomus argentipes (Diptera: Psychodidae) sand flies from Bangladesh and Nepal to different insecticides

BACKGROUND

The sand fly Phlebotomus argentipes is the vector for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian sub-continent. In Bangladesh since 2012, indoor residual spraying (IRS) was applied in VL endemic areas using deltamethrin. In Nepal, IRS was initiated in 1992 for VL vector control using lambda-cyhalothrin. Irrational use of insecticides may lead to vector resistance but very little information on this subject is available in both countries. The objective of this study was to generate information on the susceptibility of the vector sand fly, P. argentipes to insecticide, in support of the VL elimination initiative on the Indian sub-continent.

METHODS

Susceptibility tests were performed using WHO test kits following the standard procedures regarding alpha cypermethrin (0.05%), deltamethrin (0.05%), lambda-cyhalothrin (0.05%), permethrin (0.75%), malathion (5%) and bendiocarb (0.1%) in six upazilas (sub-districts) in Bangladesh. In Nepal, the tests were performed for two insecticides: alpha cypermethrin (0.05%) and deltamethrin (0.05%). Adult P. argentipes sand flies were collected in Bangladesh from six VL endemic upazilas (sub-districts) and in Nepal from three endemic districts using manual aspirators.

RESULTS

The results show that VL vectors were highly susceptible to all insecticides at 60 minutes of exposure in both countries. In Bangladesh, corrected mortality was 100% at 15 minutes as well as 30 minutes of exposure. The study sites in Nepal, however, showed some diverse results, with a mortality rate less than 90% for 15 minutes of exposure with alpha cypermethrin and deltamethrin in two districts but was above 95% after 30 minutes of exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that the insecticides tested can still be used in the national programmes of Bangladesh and Nepal. However, insecticide rotation should be performed to mitigate the possible development of insecticide resistance. Periodic susceptibility tests should be performed by the countries to get timely alerts regarding insecticide resistance.

House screening with insecticide-treated netting provides sustained reductions in domestic populations of Aedes aegypti in Merida, Mexico

BACKGROUND

There is a need for effective methods to control Aedes aegypti and prevent the transmission of dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever and Zika viruses. Insecticide treated screening (ITS) is a promising approach, particularly as it targets adult mosquitoes to reduce human-mosquito contact.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A cluster-randomised controlled trial evaluated the entomological efficacy of ITS based intervention, which consisted of the installation of pyrethroid-impregnated long-lasting insecticide-treated netting material fixed as framed screens on external doors and windows. A total of 10 treatment and 10 control clusters (100 houses/cluster) were distributed throughout the city of Merida, Mexico. Cross-sectional entomological surveys quantified indoor adult mosquito infestation at baseline (pre-intervention) and throughout four post-intervention (PI) surveys spaced at 6-month intervals corresponding to dry/rainy seasons over two years (2012-2014). A total of 844 households from intervention clusters (86% coverage) were protected with ITS at the start of the trial. Significant reductions in the indoor presence and abundance of Ae. aegypti adults (OR = 0.48 and IRR = 0.45, P<0.05 respectively) and the indoor presence and abundance of Ae. aegypti female mosquitoes (OR = 0.47 and IRR = 0.44, P<0.05 respectively) were detected in intervention clusters compared to controls. This high level of protective effect was sustained for up to 24 months PI. Insecticidal activity of the ITS material declined with time, with ~70% mortality being demonstrated in susceptible mosquito cohorts up to 24 months after installation.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The strong and sustained entomological impact observed in this study demonstrates the potential of house screening as a feasible, alternative approach to a sustained long-term impact on household infestations of Ae. aegypti. Larger trials quantifying the effectiveness of ITS on epidemiological endpoints are warranted and therefore recommended.

Improved tools and strategies for the prevention and control of arboviral diseases: A research-to-policy forum

BACKGROUND

Research has been conducted on interventions to control dengue transmission and respond to outbreaks. A summary of the available evidence will help inform disease control policy decisions and research directions, both for dengue and, more broadly, for all Aedes-borne arboviral diseases.

METHOD

A research-to-policy forum was convened by TDR, the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases, with researchers and representatives from ministries of health, in order to review research findings and discuss their implications for policy and research.

RESULTS

The participants reviewed findings of research supported by TDR and others. Surveillance and early outbreak warning. Systematic reviews and country studies identify the critical characteristics that an alert system should have to document trends reliably and trigger timely responses (i.e., early enough to prevent the epidemic spread of the virus) to dengue outbreaks. A range of variables that, according to the literature, either indicate risk of forthcoming dengue transmission or predict dengue outbreaks were tested and some of them could be successfully applied in an Early Warning and Response System (EWARS). Entomological surveillance and vector management. A summary of the published literature shows that controlling Aedes vectors requires complex interventions and points to the need for more rigorous, standardised study designs, with disease reduction as the primary outcome to be measured. House screening and targeted vector interventions are promising vector management approaches. Sampling vector populations, both for surveillance purposes and evaluation of control activities, is usually conducted in an unsystematic way, limiting the potentials of entomological surveillance for outbreak prediction. Combining outbreak alert and improved approaches of vector management will help to overcome the present uncertainties about major risk groups or areas where outbreak response should be initiated and where resources for vector management should be allocated during the interepidemic period.

CONCLUSIONS

The Forum concluded that the evidence collected can inform policy decisions, but also that important research gaps have yet to be filled.

Scaling Up of an Innovative Intervention to Reduce Risk of Dengue, Chikungunya, and Zika Transmission in Uruguay in the Framework of an Intersectoral Approach with and without Community Participation

To contribute to the prevention of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, a process of scaling up an innovative intervention to reduce Aedes aegypti habitats, was carried out in the city of Salto (Uruguay) based on a transdisciplinary analysis of the eco-bio-social determinants. The intervention in one-third of the city included the distributions of plastic bags for all households to collect all discarded water containers that were recollected by the Ministry of Health and the Municipality vector control services. The results were evaluated in 20 randomly assigned clusters of 100 households each, in the intervention and control arm. The intervention resulted in a significantly larger decrease in the number of pupae per person index (as a proxy for adult vector abundance) than the corresponding decrease in the control areas (both areas decreased by winter effects). The reduction of intervention costs ("incremental costs") in relation to routine vector control activities was 46%. Community participation increased the collaboration with the intervention program considerably (from 48% of bags handed back out of the total of bags delivered to 59% of bags handed back). Although the costs increased by 26% compared with intervention without community participation, the acceptability of actions by residents increased from 66% to 78%.

Towards elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent-Translating research to practice to public health

BACKGROUND

The decade following the Regional Strategic Framework for Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) elimination in 2005 has shown compelling progress in the reduction of VL burden in the Indian subcontinent. The Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), hosted by the World Health Organization (WHO) and other stakeholders, has coordinated and financed research for the development of new innovative tools and strategies to support the regional VL elimination initiative. This paper describes the process of the TDR's engagement and contribution to this initiative.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Multiple databases were searched to identify 152 scientific papers and reports with WHO funding or authorship affiliation around the following 3 framework strategies: detection of new cases, morbidity reduction, and prevention of infection. TDR has played a critical role in the evaluation and subsequent use of the 39-aminoacid-recombinant kinesin antigen (rK39) rapid diagnostic test (RDT) as a confirmatory test for VL in the national program. TDR has supported the clinical research and development of miltefosine and single-dose liposomal amphotericin B as a first-line treatment against VL. TDR has engaged with in-country researchers, national programme managers, and partners to generate evidence-based interventions for early detection and treatment of VL patients. TDR evaluated the quality, community acceptance, and cost effectiveness of indoor residual spraying, insecticide-treated bed nets, insecticide-impregnated durable wall linings, insecticidal paint, and environmental management as tools for integrated vector management in reducing sandfly density.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

TDR's engagement with country policy makers, scientists, and clinicians in the development of effective diagnosis, treatment, case detection, and vector control represents an important example of TDR's stewardship toward the elimination of VL in the Indian subcontinent.

Control of Phlebotomus argentipes (Diptera: Psychodidae) sand fly in Bangladesh: A cluster randomized controlled trial

Background

A number of studies on visceral leishmaniasis (VL) vector control have been conducted during the past decade, sometimes came to very different conclusion. The present study on a large sample investigated different options which are partially unexplored including: (1) indoor residual spraying (IRS) with alpha cypermethrin 5WP; (2) long lasting insecticide impregnated bed-net (LLIN); (3) impregnation of local bed-nets with slow release insecticide K-O TAB 1-2-3 (KOTAB); (4) insecticide spraying in potential breeding sites outside of house using chlorpyrifos 20EC (OUT) and different combinations of the above.

Methods

The study was a cluster randomized controlled trial where 3089 houses from 11 villages were divided into 10 sections, each section with 6 clusters and each cluster having approximately 50 houses. Based on vector density (males plus females) during baseline survey, the 60 clusters were categorized into 3 groups: (1) high, (2) medium and (3) low. Each group had 20 clusters. From these three groups, 6 clusters (about 300 households) were randomly selected for each type of intervention and control arms. Vector density was measured before and 2, 4, 5, 7, 11, 14, 15, 18 and 22 months after intervention using CDC light traps. The impact of interventions was measured by using the difference-in-differences regression model.

Results

A total of 17,434 sand flies were collected at baseline and during the surveys conducted over 9 months following the baseline measurements. At baseline, the average P. argentipes density per household was 10.6 (SD = 11.5) in the control arm and 7.3 (SD = 8.46) to 11.5 (SD = 20.2) in intervention arms. The intervention results presented as the range of percent reductions of sand flies (males plus females) and rate ratios in 9 measurements over 22 months. Among single type interventions, the effect of IRS with 2 rounds of spraying (applied by the research team) ranged from 13% to 75% reduction of P. argentipes density compared to the control arm (rate-ratio [RR] ranged from 0.25 to 0.87). LLINs caused a vector reduction of 9% to 78% (RR, 0.22 to 0.91). KOTAB reduced vectors by 4% to 73% (RR, 0.27 to 0.96). The combination of LLIN and OUT led to a vector reduction of 26% to 86% (RR, 0.14 to 0.74). The reduction for the combination of IRS and OUT was 8% to 88% (RR, 0.12 to 0.92). IRS and LLIN combined resulted in a vector reduction of 13% to 85% (RR, 0.15 to 0.77). The IRS and KOTAB combination reduced vector densities by 16% to 86% (RR, 0.14 to 0.84). Some intermediate measurements for KOTAB alone and for IRS plus LLIN; and IRS plus KOTAB were not statistically significant. The bioassays on sprayed surfaces or netting materials showed favourable results (>80% mortality) for 22 months (IRS tested for 12 months). In the KOTAB, a gradual decline was observed after 6 months.

Conclusions

LLIN and OUT was the best combination to reduce VL vector densities for 22 months or longer. Operationally, this is much easier to apply than IRS. A cost analysis of the preferred tools will follow. The relationship between vector density (males plus females) and leishmaniasis incidence should be investigated, and this will require estimates of the Entomological Inoculation Rate.

Integrated vector management (IVM) is of the important elements in the Regional Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) elimination strategy. VL supposed to be eliminated from the Region (Bangladesh, India and Nepal) by 2015 which is extended up to 2017. There are several factors are responsible for not achieving the elimination goal and IVM is one of them. In Bangladesh, currently VL vector control activity is confined to indoor residual spraying with deltamethrin. Therefore, it is crucial to identify alternative VL vector control method(s) to enhance VL elimination programme. In the present study we have investigated the efficacy of (1) indoor residual spraying (IRS) with alpha cypermethrin 5WP; (2) long lasting insecticide impregnated bed-net (LLIN); (3) impregnation of local bed-nets with slow release insecticide K-O TAB 1-2-3 (KOTAB); (4) insecticide spraying in potential breeding sites using chlorpyrifos 20EC (OUT) and different combinations of the above. Study findings showed that the combination of LLIN and OUT was the most effective method against VL vector and among single interventions, IRS with two rounds of spraying found efficacious. In addition to IRS, VL elimination programme should consider LLIN plus OUT for vector control in relation to IVM.

Taking innovative vector control interventions in urban Latin America to scale: lessons learnt from multi-country implementation research

Prior to the current public health emergency following the emergence of chikungunya and Zika Virus Disease in the Americas during 2014 and 2015, multi-country research investigated between 2011 and 2013 the efficacy of novel Aedes aegypti intervention packages through cluster randomised controlled trials in four Latin-American cities: Fortaleza (Brazil); Girardot (Colombia), Acapulco (Mexico) and Salto (Uruguay). Results from the trials led to a scaling up effort of the interventions at city levels. Scaling up refers to deliberate efforts to increase the impact of successfully tested health interventions to benefit more people and foster policy and program development in a sustainable way. The different scenarios represent examples for  a 'vertical approach' and a 'horizontal approach'. This paper presents the analysis of a preliminary process evaluation of the scaling up efforts in the mentioned cites, with a focus on challenges and enabling factors encountered by the research teams, analysing the main social, political, administrative, financial and acceptance factors.

Implication of vector characteristics of Phlebotomus argentipes in the kala-azar elimination programme in the Indian sub-continent

Background

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), also known as kala-azar in the Indian sub-continent (ISC), is a major public health concern in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal, where it is caused by Leishmania donovani transmitted by the sand fly Phlebotomus argentipes. Various ecological parameters including air temperature, rainfall, wind speed, relative humidity, soil moisture, pH, and organic carbon are known to influence the oviposition of female sand flies, as well as the survival and development of larvae. However, more detailed knowledge on vector behavior, such as biting times, breeding places, and preferred hosts are needed to design optimal evidence-based vector control interventions.

Methods

In order to facilitate rational decisions regarding VL vector control, a systematic review was conducted to identify the prevailing practice and knowledge gaps in relation to vector bionomics and behavior. Search terms included ‘sand fly bionomics’, ‘habitat’, and ‘visceral leishmaniasis/kala-azar vector control’ using the Boolean operator AND to identify the country of interest, namely: Bangladesh, India, and Nepal. Both PubMed and Google search engines were used. Additional unpublished documents in the three countries were also analyzed.

Results

Information on the life cycle of VL vectors, their breeding behavior, infection rate with L. donovani, feeding behavior, and seasonal variation are useful for designing vector control operations. Unfortunately, none of the studies on the life cycle of P. argentipes was conducted in field settings of the ISC, so the publications from other locations had to be used for determining the duration of life cycle and development from egg to adult. However, information about breeding places, seasonal variation of vector densities, and 47 out of the selected 51 papers are available from the ISC and can be used for intelligent design of control operations.

Conclusion

Vector control services should undertake routine insecticide resistance monitoring and adapt indoor residual spraying rounds to the seasonality of vector densities. Further research is needed on potential animal reservoirs for L. donovani, on the breeding habitat, and life cycle of sand flies in the ISC.

Exploring urban health in Cape Town, South Africa: an interdisciplinary analysis of secondary data

BACKGROUND

With modern information technology, an overwhelming amount of data is available on different aspects of societies. Our research investigated the feasibility of using secondary data sources to get an overview of determinants of health and health outcomes in different population strata of Cape Town, a large city of South Africa.

METHODS

The methodological approach of secondary-data analysis was similar in the different disciplines: Biological Anthropology, Public Health, Environmental Health, Mental Health, Palliative Care, Medical Psychology and Sociology at the University of Freiburg and Public Health at the University of Cape Town. The teams collected information on Cape Town through Internet searches and published articles. The information was extracted, analyzed, condensed, and jointly interpreted.

RESULTS

Data show the typical picture of a population in epidemiological and demographic transition exposed to often difficult social, mental, and physical environmental conditions. Comparison between low and higher socioeconomic districts demonstrated that the former had higher air pollution, poorer water quality, and deficient sanitary conditions in addition to sub-optimal mental health services and palliative care.

CONCLUSION

Although important information gaps were identified, the data draw attention to critical public health interventions required in poor health districts, and to motivate for pro-equity policies.

Innovative dengue vector control interventions in Latin America: what do they cost?

Background

Five studies were conducted in Fortaleza (Brazil), Girardot (Colombia), Machala (Ecuador), Acapulco (Mexico), and Salto (Uruguay) to assess dengue vector control interventions tailored to the context. The studies involved the community explicitly in the implementation, and focused on the most productive breeding places for Aedes aegypti. This article reports the cost analysis of these interventions.

Methods

We conducted the costing from the perspective of the vector control program. We collected data on quantities and unit costs of the resources used to deliver the interventions. Comparable information was requested for the routine activities. Cost items were classified, analyzed descriptively, and aggregated to calculate total costs, costs per house reached, and incremental costs.

Results

Cost per house of the interventions were $18.89 (Fortaleza), $21.86 (Girardot), $30.61 (Machala), $39.47 (Acapulco), and $6.98 (Salto). Intervention components that focused mainly on changes to the established vector control programs seem affordable; cost savings were identified in Salto (−21%) and the clean patio component in Machala (−12%). An incremental cost of 10% was estimated in Fortaleza. On the other hand, there were also completely new components that would require sizeable financial efforts (installing insecticide-treated nets in Girardot and Acapulco costs $16.97 and $24.96 per house, respectively).

Conclusions

The interventions are promising, seem affordable and may improve the cost profile of the established vector control programs. The costs of the new components could be considerable, and should be assessed in relation to the benefits in reduced dengue burden.

Entomological efficacy of durable wall lining with reduced wall surface coverage for strengthening visceral leishmaniasis vector control in Bangladesh, India and Nepal

Background

New methods for controlling sand fly are highly desired by the Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) elimination program of Bangladesh, India and Nepal for its consolidation and maintenance phases. To support the program we investigated safety, efficacy and cost of Durable Wall Lining to control sand fly.

Methods

This multicentre randomized controlled study in Bangladesh, India and Nepal included randomized two intervention clusters and one control cluster. Each cluster had 50 households except full wall surface coverage (DWL-FWSC) cluster in Nepal which had 46 households. Ten of 50 households were randomly selected for entomological activities except India where it was 6 households. Interventions were DWL-FWSC and reduced wall surface coverage (DWL-RWSC) with DWL which covers 1.8 m and 1.5 m height from floor respectively. Efficacy was measured by reduction in sand fly density by intervention and sand fly mortality assessment by the WHO cone bioassay test at 1 month after intervention. Trained field research assistants interviewed household heads for socio-demographic information, knowledge and practice about VL, vector control, and for their experience following the intervention. Cost data was collected using cost data collection tool which was designed for this study. Statistical analysis included difference-in-differences estimate, bivariate analysis, Poisson regression model and incremental cost-efficacy ratio calculation.

Results

Mean sand fly density reduction by DWL-FWSC and DWL-RWSC was respectively −4.96 (95 % CI, −4.54, −5.38) and −5.38 (95 % CI, −4.89, −5.88). The sand fly density reduction attributed by both the interventions were statistically significant after adjusting for covariates (IRR = 0.277, p < 0.001 for DWL-RWSC and IRR = 0.371, p < 0.001 for DWL-FWSC). The efficacy of DWL-RWSC and DWL-FWSC on sand fly density reduction was statistically comparable (p = 0.214). The acceptability of both interventions was high. Transient burning sensations, flash on face and itching were most common adverse events and were observed mostly in Indian site. There was no serious adverse event. DWL-RWSC is cost-saving compared to DWL-FWSC. The incremental cost-efficacy ratio was −6.36, where DWL-RWSC dominates DWL-FWSC.

Conclusions

DWL-RWSC intervention is safe, efficacious, cost-saving and cost-effective in reducing indoor sand fly density. The VL elimination program in the Indian sub-continent may consider DWL-RWSC for sand fly control for its consolidation and maintenance phases.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1881-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Dengue Contingency Planning: From Research to Policy and Practice

BACKGROUND

Dengue is an increasingly incident disease across many parts of the world. In response, an evidence-based handbook to translate research into policy and practice was developed. This handbook facilitates contingency planning as well as the development and use of early warning and response systems for dengue fever epidemics, by identifying decision-making processes that contribute to the success or failure of dengue surveillance, as well as triggers that initiate effective responses to incipient outbreaks.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Available evidence was evaluated using a step-wise process that included systematic literature reviews, policymaker and stakeholder interviews, a study to assess dengue contingency planning and outbreak management in 10 countries, and a retrospective logistic regression analysis to identify alarm signals for an outbreak warning system using datasets from five dengue endemic countries. Best practices for managing a dengue outbreak are provided for key elements of a dengue contingency plan including timely contingency planning, the importance of a detailed, context-specific dengue contingency plan that clearly distinguishes between routine and outbreak interventions, surveillance systems for outbreak preparedness, outbreak definitions, alert algorithms, managerial capacity, vector control capacity, and clinical management of large caseloads. Additionally, a computer-assisted early warning system, which enables countries to identify and respond to context-specific variables that predict forthcoming dengue outbreaks, has been developed.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Most countries do not have comprehensive, detailed contingency plans for dengue outbreaks. Countries tend to rely on intensified vector control as their outbreak response, with minimal focus on integrated management of clinical care, epidemiological, laboratory and vector surveillance, and risk communication. The Technical Handbook for Surveillance, Dengue Outbreak Prediction/ Detection and Outbreak Response seeks to provide countries with evidence-based best practices to justify the declaration of an outbreak and the mobilization of the resources required to implement an effective dengue contingency plan.

Efficacy, Safety and Cost of Insecticide Treated Wall Lining, Insecticide Treated Bed Nets and Indoor Wall Wash with Lime for Visceral Leishmaniasis Vector Control in the Indian Sub-continent: A Multi-country Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

We investigated the efficacy, safety and cost of lime wash of household walls plus treatment of sand fly breeding places with bleach (i.e. environmental management or EM), insecticide impregnated durable wall lining (DWL), and bed net impregnation with slow release insecticide (ITN) for sand fly control in the Indian sub-continent.

METHODS

This multi-country cluster randomized controlled trial had 24 clusters in each three sites with eight clusters per high, medium or low sand fly density stratum. Every cluster included 45-50 households. Five households from each cluster were randomly selected for entomological measurements including sand fly density and mortality at one, three, nine and twelve months post intervention. Household interviews were conducted for socioeconomic information and intervention acceptability assessment. Cost for each intervention was calculated. There was a control group without intervention.

FINDINGS

Sand fly mortality [mean and 95%CI] ranged from 84% (81%-87%) at one month to 74% (71%-78%) at 12 months for DWL, 75% (71%-79%) at one month to 49% (43%-55%) at twelve months for ITN, and 44% (34%-53%) at one month to 22% (14%-29%) at twelve months for EM. Adjusted intervention effect on sand fly density measured by incidence rate ratio ranged from 0.28 (0.23-0.34) at one month to 0.62 (0.51-0.75) at 12 months for DWL; 0.72 (0.62-0.85) at one month to 1.02 (0.86-1.22) at 12 months for ITN; and 0.89 (0.76-1.03) at one months to 1.49 (1.26-1.74) at 12 months for EM. Household acceptance of EM was 74% compared to 94% for both DWL and ITN. Operational cost per household in USD was about 5, 8, and 2 for EM, DWL and ITN, respectively. Minimal adverse reactions were reported for EM and ITN while 36% of households with DWL reported transient itching.

INTERPRETATION

DWL is the most effective, durable and acceptable control method followed by ITN. The Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) Elimination Program in the Indian sub-continent should consider DWL and ITN for sand fly control in addition to IRS.

Alarm Variables for Dengue Outbreaks: A Multi-Centre Study in Asia and Latin America

BACKGROUND

Worldwide, dengue is an unrelenting economic and health burden. Dengue outbreaks have become increasingly common, which place great strain on health infrastructure and services. Early warning models could allow health systems and vector control programmes to respond more cost-effectively and efficiently.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The Shewhart method and Endemic Channel were used to identify alarm variables that may predict dengue outbreaks. Five country datasets were compiled by epidemiological week over the years 2007-2013. These data were split between the years 2007-2011 (historic period) and 2012-2013 (evaluation period). Associations between alarm/ outbreak variables were analysed using logistic regression during the historic period while alarm and outbreak signals were captured during the evaluation period. These signals were combined to form alarm/ outbreak periods, where 2 signals were equal to 1 period. Alarm periods were quantified and used to predict subsequent outbreak periods. Across Mexico and Dominican Republic, an increase in probable cases predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases with sensitivities and positive predictive values (PPV) of 93%/ 83% and 97%/ 86% respectively, at a lag of 1-12 weeks. An increase in mean temperature ably predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases in Mexico and Brazil, with sensitivities and PPVs of 79%/ 73% and 81%/ 46% respectively, also at a lag of 1-12 weeks. Mean age was predictive of hospitalised cases at sensitivities and PPVs of 72%/ 74% and 96%/ 45% in Mexico and Malaysia respectively, at a lag of 4-16 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

An increase in probable cases was predictive of outbreaks, while meteorological variables, particularly mean temperature, demonstrated predictive potential in some countries, but not all. While it is difficult to define uniform variables applicable in every country context, the use of probable cases and meteorological variables in tailored early warning systems could be used to highlight the occurrence of dengue outbreaks or indicate increased risk of dengue transmission.

Mobile suitcase laboratory for rapid detection of Leishmania donovani using recombinase polymerase amplification assay

BACKGROUND

Leishmania donovani (LD) is a protozoan parasite transmitted to humans from sand flies, which causes Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL). Currently, the diagnosis is based on presence of the anti-LD antibodies and clinical symptoms. Molecular diagnosis would require real-time PCR, which is not easy to implement at field settings. In this study, we report on the development and testing of a recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA) assay for the detection of LD.

METHODS

A genomic DNA sample was applied to determine the assay analytical sensitivity. The cross-reactivity of the assay was tested by DNA of Leishmania spp. and of pathogens considered for differential diagnosis. The clinical performance of the assay was evaluated on LD positive and negative samples. All results were compared with real-time PCR. To allow the use of the assay at field settings, a mobile suitcase laboratory (56 × 45.5 × 26.5 cm) was developed and operated at the local hospital in Mymensingh, Bangladesh.

RESULTS

The LD RPA assay detected equivalent to one LD genomic DNA. The assay was performed at constant temperature (42 °C) in 15 min. The RPA assay also detected other Leishmania species (L. major, L. aethiopica and L. infantum), but did not identify nucleic acid of other pathogens. Forty-eight samples from VL, asymptomatic and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis subjects were detected positive and 48 LD-negative samples were negative by both LD RPA and real-time PCR assays, which indicates 100 % agreement. The suitcase laboratory was successfully operated at the local hospital by using a solar-powered battery. DNA extraction was performed by a novel magnetic bead based method (SpeedXtract), in which a simple fast lysis protocol was applied. Moreover, All reagents were cold-chain independent.

CONCLUSIONS

The mobile suitcase laboratory using RPA is ideal for rapid sensitive and specific detection of LD especially at low resource settings and could contribute to VL control and elimination programmes.

Use of insecticide-treated house screens to reduce infestations of dengue virus vectors, Mexico

Dengue prevention efforts rely on control of virus vectors. We investigated use of insecticide-treated screens permanently affixed to windows and doors in Mexico and found that the screens significantly reduced infestations of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in treated houses. Our findings demonstrate the value of this method for dengue virus vector control.