Systematic Review of Scales for Measuring Infectious Disease-Related Stigma

Infectious disease outbreaks are associated with substantial stigma, which can have negative effects on affected persons and communities and on outbreak control. Thus, measuring stigma in a standardized and validated manner early in an outbreak is critical to disease control. We reviewed existing scales used to assess stigma during outbreaks. Our findings show that many different scales have been developed, but few have been used more than once, have been adequately validated, or have been tested in different disease and geographic contexts. We found that scales were usually developed too slowly to be informative early during an outbreak and were published a median of 2 years after the first case of an outbreak. A rigorously developed, transferable stigma scale is needed to assess and direct responses to stigma during infectious disease outbreaks.

Involving patients in drug development for Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs): A qualitative study exploring and incorporating preferences of patients with cutaneous leishmaniasis into Target Product Profile development

BACKGROUND

Target Product Profiles (TPPs) are instrumental to help optimise the design and development of therapeutics, vaccines, and diagnostics - these products, in order to achieve the intended impact, should be aligned with users' preferences and needs. However, patients are rarely involved as key stakeholders in building a TPP.

METHODOLOGY

Thirty-three cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) patients from Brazil, Colombia, and Austria, infected with New-World Leishmania species, were recruited using a maximum variation approach along geographic, sociodemographic and clinical criteria. Semi-structured interviews were conducted in the respective patient's mother tongue. Transcripts, translated into English, were analysed using a framework approach. We matched disease experiences, preferences, and expectations of CL patients to a TPP developed by DNDi (Drug for Neglected Diseases initiative) for CL treatment.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Patients' preferences regarding treatments ranged from specific efficacy and safety endpoints to direct and significant indirect costs. Respondents expressed views about trade-offs between efficacy and experienced discomfort/adverse events caused by treatment. Reasons for non-compliance, such as adverse events or geographical and availability barriers, were discussed. Considerations related to accessibility and affordability were relevant from the patients' perspective.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

NTDs affect disadvantaged populations, often with little access to health systems. Engaging patients in designing adapted therapies could significantly contribute to the suitability of an intervention to a specific context and to compliance, by tailoring the product to the end-users' needs. This exploratory study identified preferences in a broad international patient spectrum. It provides methodological guidance on how patients can be meaningfully involved as stakeholders in the construction of a TPP of therapeutics for NTDs. CL is used as an exemplar, but the approach can be adapted for other NTDs.

Event rates and incidence of post-COVID-19 condition in hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 positive children and young people and controls across different pandemic waves: exposure-stratified prospective cohort study in Moscow (StopCOVID)

BACKGROUND

Long-term health outcomes in children and young people (CYP) after COVID-19 infection are not well understood and studies with control groups exposed to other infections are lacking. This study aimed to investigate the incidence of post-COVID-19 condition (PCC) and incomplete recovery in CYP after hospital discharge and compare outcomes between different SARS-CoV-2 variants and non-SARS-CoV-2 infections.

METHODS

A prospective exposure-stratified cohort study of individuals under 18 years old in Moscow, Russia. Exposed cohorts were paediatric patients admitted with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection between April 2 and December 11, 2020 (Wuhan variant cohort) and between January 12 and February 19, 2022 (Omicron variant cohort). CYP admitted with respiratory and intestinal infections, but negative lateral flow rapid diagnostic test and PCR-test results for SARS-CoV-2, between January 12 and February 19, 2022, served as unexposed reference cohort. Comparison between the 'exposed cohorts' and 'reference cohort' was conducted using 1:1 matching by age and sex. Follow-up data were collected via telephone interviews with parents, utilising the long COVID paediatric protocol and survey developed by the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC). The WHO case definition was used to categorise PCC.

RESULTS

Of 2595 CYP with confirmed COVID-19, 1707 (65.7%) participated in follow-up interviews, with 1183/1707 (69%) included in the final 'matched' analysis. The median follow-up time post-discharge was 6.7 months. The incidence of PCC was significantly higher in the Wuhan variant cohort (89.7 cases per 1000 person-months, 95% CI 64.3-120.3) compared to post-infection sequalae in the reference cohort (12.2 cases per 1000 person-months, 95% CI 4.9-21.9), whereas the difference with the Omicron variant cohort and reference cohort was not significant. The Wuhan cohort had higher incidence rates of dermatological, fatigue, gastrointestinal, sensory, and sleep manifestations, as well as behavioural and emotional problems than the reference cohort. The only significant difference between Omicron variant cohort and reference cohort was decreased school attendance. When comparing the Wuhan and Omicron variant cohorts, higher incidence of PCC and event rates of fatigue, decreased physical activity, and deterioration of relationships was observed. The rate of incomplete recovery was also significantly higher in the Wuhan variant cohort than in both the reference and the Omicron variant cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Wuhan variant exhibited a propensity for inducing a broad spectrum of physical symptoms and emotional behavioural changes, suggesting a pronounced impact on long-term health outcomes. Conversely, the Omicron variant resulted in fewer post-infection effects no different from common seasonal viral illnesses. This may mean that the Omicron variant and subsequent variants might not lead to the same level of long-term health consequences as earlier variants.

Nipah virus disease: what can we do to improve patient care?

The year 2023 marked the 25th anniversary of the first detected outbreak of Nipah virus disease. Despite Nipah virus being a priority pathogen in the WHO Research and Development blueprint, the disease it causes still carries high mortality, unchanged since the first reported outbreaks. Although candidate vaccines for Nipah virus disease exist, developing new therapeutics has been underinvested. Nipah virus disease illustrates the typical market failure of medicine development for a high-consequence pathogen. The unpredictability of outbreaks and low number of infections affecting populations in low-income countries does not make an attractive business case for developing treatments for Nipah virus disease-a situation compounded by methodological challenges in clinical trial design. Nipah virus therapeutics development is not motivated by commercial interest. Therefore, we propose a regionally led, patient-centred, and public health-centred, end-to-end framework that articulates a public health vision and a roadmap for research, development, manufacturing, and access towards the goal of improving patient outcomes. This framework includes co-creating a regulatory-compliant, clinically meaningful, and context-specific clinical development plan and establishing quality standards in clinical care and research capabilities at sites where the disease occurs. The success of this approach will be measured by the availability and accessibility of improved Nipah virus treatments in affected communities and reduced mortality.

Experiences and challenges with the new European Clinical Trials Regulation

BACKGROUND

The new European Medicines Agency (EMA) Clinical Trials Information System (CTIS), based on the Clinical Trials Regulation (CTR EU 536/2014), came into full effect on 31 January 2022 and was intended to provide an easier, more streamlined approach to the registration of clinical trials taking place in Europe. Using the experience gained on the new regulatory framework from three multi-national European clinical research studies of outbreak-prone infectious diseases, this article describes the advantages and shortcomings of the new clinical trial submission procedure.

METHODS

We report the time to approval, size of the application dossier, and number of requests for information (RFIs) for each study. We also explore the experience of each study within the regulatory framework and its use of CTIS to document the real-world, practical consequences of the system on individual studies. The study assesses the experience of three multi-country studies conducted in Europe working within the EU and non-EU regulatory environments.

RESULTS

While the time to regulatory and ethical approval has improved since the implementation of the new regulation, the timelines for approvals are still unacceptably slow, particularly for studies being conducted in the context of an evolving outbreak. Within the new regulatory approval procedure, there is evidence of conflicting application requirements, increased document burden, barriers to submitting important modifications, and debilitating technical hurdles.

CONCLUSIONS

CTIS promised to lower the administrative bar, but unfortunately this has not been achieved. There are challenges that need to be urgently confronted and addressed for international research collaborators to effectively manage health crises in the future. While the value of multi-national outbreak research is clear, the limitations and delays imposed by the system, which raise challenging ethical questions about the regulation, are prejudicial to all clinical research, especially publicly funded academic studies. This report is relevant to both regulators and clinical researchers. It is hoped that these findings can help improve pan-European clinical trials, especially for the purpose of epidemic preparedness and response.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This paper references experiences gained during management of three pan-European trials: EU-SolidAct's Bari-SolidAct (CT No. 2022-500385-99-00 - 15 March 2022) and AXL-SolidAct (CT No. 2022-500363-12-00 - 19 April 2022), and MOSAIC (CT No. 2022-501132-42-00 - 22 June 2022).

Bubonic plague: can the size of buboes be accurately and consistently measured with a digital calliper?

INTRODUCTION

Conducting clinical research on treatments for emerging infectious diseases is often complicated by methodological challenges, such as the identification of appropriate outcome measures to assess treatment response and the lack of validated instruments available to measure patient outcomes. In bubonic plague, some studies have assessed bubo size as an indicator of treatment success, a measure widely assumed to be indicative of recovery. Evaluating this outcome however is challenging as there is no validated method for measuring bubo size. The aim of this study is to assess the accuracy and inter- and intra-rater agreement of artificial bubo measurements using a digital calliper to understand whether a calliper is an appropriate measurement instrument to assess this outcome.

METHODS

Study technicians measured 14 artificial buboes made from silicone overlaid with artificial silicone skin sheets over the course of two training sessions. Each artificial bubo was measured by each study technician once per training session, following a Standard Operating Procedure. The objectives of this study are to (i) evaluate the accuracy of individual measurements against the true size of the artificial bubo when using a digital calliper, (ii) understand whether the characteristics of the artificial bubo influence measurement accuracy and (iii) evaluate inter- and intra-rater measurement agreement.

RESULTS

In total, 14 artificial buboes ranging from 52.7 to 121.6 mm in size were measured by 57 raters, generating 698 measurements recorded across two training sessions. Raters generally over-estimated the size of the artificial bubo. The median percentage difference between the measured and actual bubo size was 13%. Measurement accuracy and intra-rater agreement decreased as the size of the bubo decreased. Three quarters of all measurements had a maximum of 25% difference from another measurement of the same artificial bubo. Inter-rater agreement did not vary with density, size or presence of oedema of the artificial bubo.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study demonstrate the challenges for both individual and multiple raters to repeatedly generate consistent and accurate measurements of the same artificial buboes with a digital calliper.

Variability in clinical assessment of clade IIb mpox lesions

OBJECTIVES

The ongoing global outbreak of mpox, caused by clade IIb mpox virus, poses significant challenges in accurately categorizing and assessing the diversity of lesions. With lesion resolution being a key endpoint in clinical trials and observational studies, it is essential to evaluate the inter-rater reliability and agreement of clade IIb mpox lesion assessment among clinicians.

METHODS

Clinicians experienced in clade IIb mpox disease were surveyed online with 20 lesion images. They categorized lesions into active, crusted, resolved, or unclassifiable groups. Reliability was assessed with Fleiss' kappa and agreement with proportion of exact agreement.

RESULTS

Fifty-three clinicians completed the survey, with a median self-reported confidence rating of 7 (on a scale of 1 to 10) in assessing mpox lesions. The inter-rater reliability was found to be moderate, with a Fleiss' kappa coefficient of 0.417 (P <0.05, 95% confidence interval: 0.409-0.425). The inter-rater agreement was 61%.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates moderate inter-rater reliability and agreement in clade IIb mpox lesion assessment among clinicians. The findings emphasize the importance of standardizing lesion classification systems to facilitate clinical care (e.g., decision to start treatment) and public health (e.g. isolation) decisions and a need to explore alternative endpoints for clinical trials.

A systematic review of the clinical profile of patients with bubonic plague and the outcome measures used in research settings

BACKGROUND

Plague is a zoonotic disease that, despite affecting humans for more than 5000 years, has historically been the subject of limited drug development activity. Drugs that are currently recommended in treatment guidelines have been approved based on animal studies alone-no pivotal clinical trials in humans have yet been completed. As a result of the sparse clinical research attention received, there are a number of methodological challenges that need to be addressed in order to facilitate the collection of clinical trial data that can meaningfully inform clinicians and policy-makers. One such challenge is the identification of clinically-relevant endpoints, which are informed by understanding the clinical characterisation of the disease-how it presents and evolves over time, and important patient outcomes, and how these can be modified by treatment.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

This systematic review aims to summarise the clinical profile of 1343 patients with bubonic plague described in 87 publications, identified by searching bibliographic databases for studies that meet pre-defined eligibility criteria. The majority of studies were individual case reports. A diverse group of signs and symptoms were reported at baseline and post-baseline timepoints-the most common of which was presence of a bubo, for which limited descriptive and longitudinal information was available. Death occurred in 15% of patients; although this varied from an average 10% in high-income countries to an average 17% in low- and middle-income countries. The median time to death was 1 day, ranging from 0 to 16 days.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This systematic review elucidates the restrictions that limited disease characterisation places on clinical trials for infectious diseases such as plague, which not only impacts the definition of trial endpoints but has the knock-on effect of challenging the interpretation of a trial's results. For this reason and despite interventional trials for plague having taken place, questions around optimal treatment for plague persist.

MOSAIC: A cohort study of human mpox virus disease

Background

Human mpox is a viral disease caused by an Orthopoxvirus, human mpox virus (hMPXV), typically causing fever and a rash. Mpox has historically been endemic to parts of Central and West Africa, with small numbers of imported cases reported elsewhere, but starting May 2022 an unprecedented global outbreak caused by clade IIb hMPXV was reported outside traditionally endemic countries. This prompted the initiation of MOSAIC, a cohort study implemented in Europe and Asia that aims to describe clinical and virologic outcomes of PCR-confirmed hMPXV disease, including those who receive antiviral therapy. The study is ongoing.

Methods

MOSAIC recruits participants of any age with laboratory-confirmed mpox disease who provide informed consent. Participants enrol in the cohort for a total of six months. Blood, lesion and throat samples are collected at several timepoints from the day of diagnosis or the first day of treatment (Day 1) until Day 28 for PCR detection of hMPXV. Clinical data are collected by clinicians and participants ( via a self-completion questionnaire) for six months to characterize the signs and symptoms associated with the illness, as well as short- and more long-term outcomes.

Discussion

The design and prompt implementation of clinical research response is key in addressing emerging outbreaks. MOSAIC began enrolment within two months of the start of the international mpox epidemic. While the number of cases is now low, the study remains open for inclusion.

ICTRP registration

EU CT number: 2022-501132-42-00 (22/06/2022).

From private incentives to public health need: rethinking research and development for pandemic preparedness

Pandemic preparedness and response have relied primarily on market dynamics to drive development and availability of new health products. Building on calls for transformation, we propose a new value proposition that instead prioritises equity from the research and development (R&D) stage and that strengthens capacity to control outbreaks when and where they occur. Key elements include regional R&D hubs free to adapt well established technology platforms, and independent clinical trials networks working with researchers, regulators, and health authorities to better study questions of comparative benefit and real-world efficacy. Realising these changes requires a shift in emphasis: from pandemic response to outbreak control, from one-size-fits-all economies of scale to R&D and manufacture for local need, from de novo product development to last-mile innovation through adaptation of existing technologies, and from proprietary, competitive R&D to open science and financing for the common good that supports collective management and sharing of technology and know-how.

Liver injury in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: An International observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Using a large dataset, we evaluated prevalence and severity of alterations in liver enzymes in COVID-19 and association with patient-centred outcomes.

METHODS

We included hospitalized patients with confirmed or suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection from the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) database. Key exposure was baseline liver enzymes (AST, ALT, bilirubin). Patients were assigned Liver Injury Classification score based on 3 components of enzymes at admission: Normal; Stage I) Liver injury: any component between 1-3x upper limit of normal (ULN); Stage II) Severe liver injury: any component ≥3x ULN. Outcomes were hospital mortality, utilization of selected resources, complications, and durations of hospital and ICU stay. Analyses used logistic regression with associations expressed as adjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Of 17,531 included patients, 46.2% (8099) and 8.2% (1430) of patients had stage 1 and 2 liver injury respectively. Compared to normal, stages 1 and 2 were associated with higher odds of mortality (OR 1.53 [1.37-1.71]; OR 2.50 [2.10-2.96]), ICU admission (OR 1.63 [1.48-1.79]; OR 1.90 [1.62-2.23]), and invasive mechanical ventilation (OR 1.43 [1.27-1.70]; OR 1.95 (1.55-2.45). Stages 1 and 2 were also associated with higher odds of developing sepsis (OR 1.38 [1.27-1.50]; OR 1.46 [1.25-1.70]), acute kidney injury (OR 1.13 [1.00-1.27]; OR 1.59 [1.32-1.91]), and acute respiratory distress syndrome (OR 1.38 [1.22-1.55]; OR 1.80 [1.49-2.17]).

CONCLUSIONS

Liver enzyme abnormalities are common among COVID-19 patients and associated with worse outcomes.

Laboratory Diagnosis of Mpox, Central African Republic, 2016-2022

During 2016-2022, PCR testing confirmed 100 mpox cases among 302 suspected cases in the Central African Republic. The highest detection rates were from active lesions (40%) and scabs (36%); cycle thresholds were lower (≈18) than those for blood samples (≈33). Results were consistent for generic primer- and clade I primer-specific PCR tests.

What Influences Patients' Adherence to Healthcare Worker Prescription in Primary Healthcare Facilities in Burkina Faso? A Qualitative Account of Barriers and Facilitators

BACKGROUND

This study explores the factors influencing patients and caregivers' adherence to prescription of healthcare workers (HCWs).

METHODS

The study was conducted in Temnaore and Pella, in the Nanoro health district in Burkina Faso. HCWs and community members were purposively recruited from 4 communities seeking care at the selected primary healthcare facilities for the clinical trial to attend in-depth interviews and focus group discussions on the factors influencing adherence to prescription. The Behaviour Change Wheel incorporating the Capability, Opportunity, and Motivation Behaviour approach was used.

RESULTS

Factors influencing the ability of patients to obtain the prescribed medicine include the availability of medicines and money and the perception of consequences for not getting the medicine. Regarding compliance with the intake of medicines, communication was considered a key factor whose effectiveness depends on the performance of HCWs and on the attention of patients. It is followed by other factors such as adequate management of patients, social influences, the patient's beliefs regarding treatment, and memory.

CONCLUSIONS

This research highlights factors influencing adherence to HCWs' prescription from the perspective of the community members and HCWs and therefore provides contextual enablers and barriers, which allows for the development of an intervention to support the clinical trial.

Synthesis and Meta-analysis of 3 Randomized Trials Conducted in Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Uganda Comparing the Effects of Point-of-Care Tests and Diagnostic Algorithms Versus Routine Care on Antibiotic Prescriptions and Clinical Outcomes in Ambulatory Patients <18 Years of Age With Acute Febrile Illness

This meta-analysis included 3 randomized trials conducted in sub-Saharan Africa comparing the effects of point-of-care tests and diagnostic algorithms versus routine care on antibiotic prescriptions and clinical outcomes in ambulatory patients presenting at outpatient facilities with acute uncomplicated febrile illness.

Understanding Health Worker and Community Antibiotic Prescription-Adherence Practices for Acute Febrile Illness: A Nested Qualitative Study in the Shai-Osudoku District of Ghana and the Development of a Training-and-Communication Intervention

BACKGROUND

The aim was to explore behavioral factors relating to the prescription and communication of prescription-adherence messages for patients with acute febrile illness, from which to develop a training-and-communication (T&C) intervention to be delivered as part of a clinical trial.

METHODS

The study undertook a content analysis of primary, qualitative data collection using in-depth interviews and focus group discussions, informed by the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation (COM-B) theory of behavior, the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF), and Behavior Change Wheel (BCW) approach, in health facilities (39 health workers) and communities (66 community members) in the Shai-Osudoku District of Ghana.

RESULTS

Health workers perceive that prescribers' and dispensers' communication with patients is influenced by the following factors: patient's educational level, existing disease conditions, health worker's workload, patient's religion, language barrier between health worker and patient, outcome of laboratory results, and medicine availability. Community members' adherence to prescription was influenced by the availability of money and affordability of medicine (outside of provision by the national health insurance scheme), the severity of the condition, work schedule, and forgetfulness.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study contributes to knowledge on nesting qualitative methods in a clinical trial and reveals factors that affect the antibiotic prescription communication process. Tailored messages for patient-specific needs can shape antibiotic prescription adherence behavior and ultimately contribute to decreasing the incidence of antibiotic resistance.

A Qualitative Assessment of a Training and Communication Intervention on Antibiotic Prescription Practices Among Health Workers and Outpatients at Public Health Facilities in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Antibiotic prescribing practices are 1 of the contributing causes of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). The study explored the key drivers and barriers to adherence to prescribing instructions among healthcare workers and outpatient attendees with the aim of developing a training and communication intervention to improve adherence to prescription.

METHODS

Prior to randomized trials at 3 health centers in Uganda (Aduku, Kihihi, and Nagongera), a pre-intervention qualitative assessment was conducted to explore behavioral drivers for adherence to prescriptions and the communication of adherence messages. Based on the findings, a training and communication package was developed for healthcare workers and patients at Day 0 of the trial. During the trial's Day 7 patient follow-up, in-depth interviews were conducted to further investigate adherence behaviors.

RESULTS

Five main themes were identified that acted as drivers or barriers to prescription adherence. Key drivers included: drug availability at health facility, health worker knowledge, and communication to patients. Barriers included: care-seeker use of treatment resorts and an inability by care-seeker to buy drugs.

CONCLUSIONS

The T&C appeared to influence both health workers' and patients' behavior and improve adherence to prescription.The adapted T&C should be considered a toolkit to improve antibiotic use across health facilities accompanied with appropriate guidelines to mitigate AMR.

A Randomized Trial to Assess the Impact of a Package of Diagnostic Tools and Diagnostic Algorithm on Antibiotic Prescriptions for the Management of Febrile Illnesses Among Children and Adolescents in Primary Health Facilities in Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND

Low- and middle-income countries face significant challenges in differentiating bacterial from viral causes of febrile illnesses, leading to inappropriate use of antibiotics. This trial aimed to evaluate the impact of an intervention package comprising diagnostic tests, a diagnostic algorithm, and a training-and-communication package on antibiotic prescriptions and clinical outcomes.

METHODS

Patients aged 6 months to 18 years with fever or history of fever within the past 7 days with no focus, or a suspected respiratory tract infection, arriving at 2 health facilities were randomized to either the intervention package or standard practice. The primary outcomes were the proportions of patients who recovered at day 7 (D7) and patients prescribed antibiotics at day 0.

RESULTS

Of 1718 patients randomized, 1681 (97.8%; intervention: 844; control: 837) completed follow-up: 99.5% recovered at D7 in the intervention arm versus 100% in standard practice (P = .135). Antibiotics were prescribed to 40.6% of patients in the intervention group versus 57.5% in the control arm (risk ratio: 29.3%; 95% CI: 21.8-36.0%; risk difference [RD]: -16.8%; 95% CI: -21.7% to -12.0%; P < .001), which translates to 1 additional antibiotic prescription saved every 6 (95% CI: 5-8) consultations. This reduction was significant regardless of test results for malaria, but was greater in patients without malaria (RD: -46.0%; -54.7% to -37.4%; P < .001), those with a respiratory diagnosis (RD: -38.2%; -43.8% to -32.6%; P < .001), and in children 6-59 months old (RD: -20.4%; -26.0% to -14.9%; P < .001). Except for the period July-September, the reduction was consistent across the other quarters (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of the package can reduce inappropriate antibiotic prescription without compromising clinical outcomes.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov; NCT04081051.

Advancing Access to Diagnostic Tools Essential for Universal Health Coverage and Antimicrobial Resistance Prevention: An Overview of Trials in Sub-Saharan Africa

We introduce the Antimicrobial Resistance Diagnostic Use Accelerator program, and the articles in this Supplement, which cover the program in 3 sub-Saharan Africa countries.

Impact of Point-of-Care Rapid Diagnostic Tests on Antibiotic Prescription Among Patients Aged <18 Years in Primary Healthcare Settings in 2 Peri-Urban Districts in Ghana: Randomized Controlled Trial Results

BACKGROUND

Inappropriate antibiotic prescriptions are a known driver of antimicrobial resistance in settings with limited diagnostic capacity. This study aimed to assess the impact of diagnostic algorithms incorporating rapid diagnostic tests on clinical outcomes and antibiotic prescriptions compared with standard-of-care practices, of acute febrile illness cases at outpatient clinics in Shai-Osudoku and Prampram districts in Ghana.

METHODS

This was an open-label, centrally randomized controlled trial in 4 health facilities. Participants aged 6 months to <18 years of both sexes with acute febrile illness were randomized to receive a package of interventions to guide antibiotic prescriptions or standard care. Clinical outcomes were assessed on day 7.

RESULTS

In total, 1512 patients were randomized to either the intervention (n = 761) or control (n = 751) group. Majority were children aged <5 years (1154 of 1512, 76.3%) and male (809 of 1512, 53.5%). There was 11% relative risk reduction of antibiotic prescription in intervention group (RR, 0.89; 95% CI, .79 to 1.01); 14% in children aged <5 years (RR, 0.86; 95% CI, .75 to .98), 15% in nonmalaria patients (RR, 0.85; 95% CI, .75 to .96), and 16% in patients with respiratory symptoms (RR, 0.84; 95% CI, .73 to .96). Almost all participants had favorable outcomes (759 of 761, 99.7% vs 747 of 751, 99.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

In low- and middle-income countries, the combination of point-of-care diagnostics, diagnostic algorithms, and communication training can be used at the primary healthcare level to reduce antibiotic prescriptions among children with acute febrile illness, patients with nonmalarial fevers, and respiratory symptoms.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT04081051.

Perspective on the Integration of Diagnostic Algorithms for Fever Management

The AMR Diagnostics Use Accelerator Program was established to address antimicrobial resistance. Here, we bring into broad perspective the findings and missed opportunities of the first phase of the program and look toward the second phase.

Impact of the Introduction of a Package of Diagnostic Tools, Diagnostic Algorithm, and Training and Communication on Outpatient Acute Fever Case Management at 3 Diverse Sites in Uganda: Results of a Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Increasing trends of antimicrobial resistance are observed around the world, driven in part by excessive use of antimicrobials. Limited access to diagnostics, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, contributes to diagnostic uncertainty, which may promote unnecessary antibiotic use. We investigated whether introducing a package of diagnostic tools, clinical algorithm, and training-and-communication messages could safely reduce antibiotic prescribing compared with current standard-of-care for febrile patients presenting to outpatient clinics in Uganda.

METHODS

This was an open-label, multicenter, 2-arm randomized controlled trial conducted at 3 public health facilities (Aduku, Nagongera, and Kihihi health center IVs) comparing the proportions of antibiotic prescriptions and clinical outcomes for febrile outpatients aged ≥1 year. The intervention arm included a package of point-of-care tests, a diagnostic and treatment algorithm, and training-and-communication messages. Standard-of-care was provided to patients in the control arm.

RESULTS

A total of 2400 patients were enrolled, with 49.5% in the intervention arm. Overall, there was no significant difference in antibiotic prescriptions between the study arms (relative risk [RR]: 1.03; 95% CI: .96-1.11). In the intervention arm, patients with positive malaria test results (313/500 [62.6%] vs 170/473 [35.9%]) had a higher RR of being prescribed antibiotics (1.74; 1.52-2.00), while those with negative malaria results (348/688 [50.6%] vs 376/508 [74.0%]) had a lower RR (.68; .63-.75). There was no significant difference in clinical outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found that a diagnostic intervention for management of febrile outpatients did not achieve the desired impact on antibiotic prescribing at 3 diverse and representative health facility sites in Uganda.

Viewpoint: Antimicrobial Resistance Diagnostics Use Accelerator: Qualitative Research on Adherence to Prescriptions

In this Viewpoint, the authors explore the determinants of patients' prescription adherence behaviors as part of FIND's Advancing Access to Diagnostic Innovation essential for Universal Health Coverage and AMR Prevention (ADIP) trials (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04081051). Research findings from Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Uganda show that basic knowledge and understanding of prescription instructions are essential for adherence and can be improved through better communication. However, there are a range of other factors that influence adherence, some of which can be influenced through tailored communication messages from healthcare workers. These messages may contribute to changes in adherence behavior but may require other reinforcing interventions to be effective. Finally, there are some drivers of nonadherence centered around costs and time pressure that require other forms of intervention.

The Future of Epidemic and Pandemic Vaccines to Serve Global Public Health Needs

This Review initiates a wide-ranging discussion over 2023 by selecting and exploring core themes to be investigated more deeply in papers submitted to the Vaccines Special Issue on the "Future of Epidemic and Pandemic Vaccines to Serve Global Public Health Needs". To tackle the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, an acceleration of vaccine development across different technology platforms resulted in the emergency use authorization of multiple vaccines in less than a year. Despite this record speed, many limitations surfaced including unequal access to products and technologies, regulatory hurdles, restrictions on the flow of intellectual property needed to develop and manufacture vaccines, clinical trials challenges, development of vaccines that did not curtail or prevent transmission, unsustainable strategies for dealing with variants, and the distorted allocation of funding to favour dominant companies in affluent countries. Key to future epidemic and pandemic responses will be sustainable, global-public-health-driven vaccine development and manufacturing based on equitable access to platform technologies, decentralised and localised innovation, and multiple developers and manufacturers, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). There is talk of flexible, modular pandemic preparedness, of technology access pools based on non-exclusive global licensing agreements in exchange for fair compensation, of WHO-supported vaccine technology transfer hubs and spokes, and of the creation of vaccine prototypes ready for phase I/II trials, etc. However, all these concepts face extraordinary challenges shaped by current commercial incentives, the unwillingness of pharmaceutical companies and governments to share intellectual property and know-how, the precariousness of building capacity based solely on COVID-19 vaccines, the focus on large-scale manufacturing capacity rather than small-scale rapid-response innovation to stop outbreaks when and where they occur, and the inability of many resource-limited countries to afford next-generation vaccines for their national vaccine programmes. Once the current high subsidies are gone and interest has waned, sustaining vaccine innovation and manufacturing capability in interpandemic periods will require equitable access to vaccine innovation and manufacturing capabilities in all regions of the world based on many vaccines, not just "pandemic vaccines". Public and philanthropic investments will need to leverage enforceable commitments to share vaccines and critical technology so that countries everywhere can establish and scale up vaccine development and manufacturing capability. This will only happen if we question all prior assumptions and learn the lessons offered by the current pandemic. We invite submissions to the special issue, which we hope will help guide the world towards a global vaccine research, development, and manufacturing ecosystem that better balances and integrates scientific, clinical trial, regulatory, and commercial interests and puts global public health needs first.

The West Africa Lassa fever Consortium pre-positioned protocol for a Phase II/III adaptive, randomised, controlled, platform trial to evaluate multiple Lassa fever therapeutics

Background: This is a standardized, pre-positioned protocol for the coordinated evaluation of Lassa fever therapeutics. The protocol is the product of discussions that took place in 2021 and 2022 among international investigators from a wide range of scientific and medical disciplines working together within the West Africa Lassa fever Consortium (WALC). Methods: This is a clinical Phase II/III multicentre randomised controlled platform trial using a superiority framework with an equal allocation ratio and a composite primary endpoint of all-cause mortality OR new onset of i) acute kidney failure (AKF), OR ii) acute respiratory failure (ARF), OR iii) shock assessed from enrolment (D0) to D28. Discussion: This pre-positioned protocol was developed by the WALC and made available for adaptation and implementation by the wider Lassa fever research community in order to generate efficient, reliable, and comparable evidence for Lassa fever therapeutics.

Breakthrough treatments for Ebola virus disease, but no access-what went wrong, and how can we do better?

Three years since proving effective for Ebola virus disease in a clinical trial, two breakthrough treatments are registered and stockpiled in the USA but still not registered and generally available in the countries most affected by this deadly infection of epidemic potential. Analysing the reasons for this, we see a fragmentation of the research and development value chain, with different stakeholders taking on different steps of the research and development process, without the public health-focused leadership needed to ensure the end goal of equitable access in countries where Ebola virus disease is prevalent. Current financial incentives for companies to overcome market failures and engage in epidemic-prone diseases are geared towards registration and stockpiling in the USA, without responsibility to provide access where and when needed. Ebola virus disease is the case in point, but not unique-a situation seen again for mpox and likely to occur again for other epidemics primarily affecting disempowered communities. Stronger leadership in African countries will help drive drug development efforts for diseases that primarily affect their communities, and ensure all partners align with and commit to an end-to-end approach to pharmaceutical development and manufacturing that puts equitable access when and where needed at its core.

Symptom-based case definitions for COVID-19: Time and geographical variations for detection at hospital admission among 260,000 patients

Introduction

Case definitions are used to guide clinical practice, surveillance and research protocols. However, how they identify COVID-19-hospitalised patients is not fully understood. We analysed the proportion of hospitalised patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, in the ISARIC prospective cohort study database, meeting widely used case definitions.

Methods

Patients were assessed using the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), World Health Organization (WHO) and UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) case definitions by age, region and time. Case fatality ratios (CFRs) and symptoms of those who did and who did not meet the case definitions were evaluated. Patients with incomplete data and non-laboratory-confirmed test result were excluded.

Results

A total of 263,218 of the patients (42%) in the ISARIC database were included. Most patients (90.4%) were from Europe and Central Asia. The proportions of patients meeting the case definitions were 56.8% (WHO), 74.4% (UKHSA), 81.6% (ECDC) and 82.3% (CDC). For each case definition, patients at the extremes of age distribution met the criteria less frequently than those aged 30 to 70 years; geographical and time variations were also observed. Estimated CFRs were similar for the patients who met the case definitions. However, when more patients did not meet the case definition, the CFR increased.

Conclusions

The performance of case definitions might be different in different regions and may change over time. Similarly concerning is the fact that older patients often did not meet case definitions, risking delayed medical care. While epidemiologists must balance their analytics with field applicability, ongoing revision of case definitions is necessary to improve patient care through early diagnosis and limit potential nosocomial spread.

Response to Visceral Leishmaniasis Cases through Active Case Detection and Vector Control in Low-Endemic Hilly Districts of Nepal

The visceral leishmaniasis (VL) elimination program in Nepal has largely completed the attack phase and is moving toward consolidation and maintenance phases. New VL foci are, however, appearing in Nepal, and therefore new innovative community-centered strategies need to be developed and tested. We conducted early case detection by an index case-based approach and assessed the feasibility, efficacy, and cost of an intervention for sandfly control through indoor residual spraying (IRS) or insecticidal wall painting (IWP) in new and low-endemic districts Palpa and Surkhet. IRS was performed in 236 households and IWP in 178 households. We screened 1,239 and 596 persons in Palpa and Surkhet, respectively, resulting in the detection of one VL case in Palpa. Both IWP and IRS were well accepted, and the percentage reductions in sandfly density after 1, 9, and 12 months of intervention were 90%, 81%, and 75%, respectively, for IWP and 81%, 59%, and 63% respectively for IRS. The cost per household protected per year was USD 10.3 for IRS and 32.8 for IWP, although over a 2-year period, IWP was more cost-effective than IRS. Active case detection combined with sandfly control through IWP or IRS can support to VL elimination in the consolidation and maintenance phase.

Prevalence and risk factors of post-COVID-19 condition in adults and children at 6 and 12 months after hospital discharge: a prospective, cohort study in Moscow (StopCOVID)

BACKGROUND

Previous studies assessing the prevalence of COVID-19 sequelae in adults and children were performed in the absence of an agreed definition. We investigated prevalence of post-COVID-19 condition (PCC) (WHO definition), at 6- and 12-months follow-up, amongst previously hospitalised adults and children and assessed risk factors.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study of children and adults with confirmed COVID-19 in Moscow, hospitalised between April and August, 2020. Two follow-up telephone interviews, using the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium survey, were performed at 6 and 12 months after discharge.

RESULTS

One thousand thirteen of 2509 (40%) of adults and 360 of 849 (42%) of children discharged participated in both the 6- and 12-month follow-ups. PCC prevalence was 50% (95% CI 47-53) in adults and 20% (95% CI 16-24) in children at 6 months, with decline to 34% (95% CI 31-37) and 11% (95% CI 8-14), respectively, at 12 months. In adults, female sex was associated with PCC at 6- and 12-month follow-up (OR 2.04, 95% CI 1.57 to 2.65) and (OR 2.04, 1.54 to 2.69), respectively. Pre-existing hypertension (OR 1.42, 1.04 to 1.94) was associated with post-COVID-19 condition at 12 months. In children, neurological comorbidities were associated with PCC both at 6 months (OR 4.38, 1.36 to 15.67) and 12 months (OR 8.96, 2.55 to 34.82) while allergic respiratory diseases were associated at 12 months (OR 2.66, 1.04 to 6.47).

CONCLUSIONS

Although prevalence of PCC declined one year after discharge, one in three adults and one in ten children experienced ongoing sequelae. In adults, females and persons with pre-existing hypertension, and in children, persons with neurological comorbidities or allergic respiratory diseases are at higher risk of PCC.

A core outcome set for post-COVID-19 condition in adults for use in clinical practice and research: an international Delphi consensus study

Health consequences that persist beyond the acute infection phase of COVID-19, termed post-COVID-19 condition (also commonly known as long COVID), vary widely and represent a growing global health challenge. Research on post-COVID-19 condition is expanding but, at present, no agreement exists on the health outcomes that should be measured in people living with the condition. To address this gap, we conducted an international consensus study, which included a comprehensive literature review and classification of outcomes for post-COVID-19 condition that informed a two-round online modified Delphi process followed by an online consensus meeting to finalise the core outcome set (COS). 1535 participants from 71 countries were involved, with 1148 individuals participating in both Delphi rounds. Eleven outcomes achieved consensus for inclusion in the final COS: fatigue; pain; post-exertion symptoms; work or occupational and study changes; survival; and functioning, symptoms, and conditions for each of cardiovascular, respiratory, nervous system, cognitive, mental health, and physical outcomes. Recovery was included a priori because it was a relevant outcome that was part of a previously published COS on COVID-19. The next step in this COS development exercise will be to establish the instruments that are most appropriate to measure these core outcomes. This international consensus-based COS should provide a framework for standardised assessment of adults with post-COVID-19 condition, aimed at facilitating clinical care and research worldwide.

Global challenges in preparedness and response to epidemic infectious diseases

Lessons drawn from successes and failures with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and Ebola virus disease (EVD) should help shaping a robust health innovation system for infectious disease epidemics. Epidemic response research and development (R&D) can be mobilized quickly for public health priorities and yield medicinal products within months. However, to resolve epidemics, technological advances must be equitably accessible and deployed, and these examples expose the limitations of a supply-driven, fragmented R&D ecosystem relying primarily on the private sector to deliver health products. Efficient epidemic response requires a coordinated public health-focused, end-to-end R&D ecosystem for the development, registration, availability, and use of pharmaceutical products. Because pivotal clinical trials can only be conducted during outbreaks, significant preparation must be done beforehand: strengthening clinical research capacity and developing pre-positioned trial protocols and clinical characterization protocols, as well as conducting discovery and pre-clinical research, manufacturing, and early clinical testing of candidate products. This will allow for speedy execution of clinical research early into an outbreak and delivering products within a short time. Effective interventions should be adopted and deployed ensuring equitable access during the ongoing outbreak. Measures to make products available where and when needed must be integrated throughout the R&D value chain.

Evaluations of training and education interventions for improved infectious disease management in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic literature review

OBJECTIVES

To identify most vital input and outcome parameters required for evaluations of training and education interventions aimed at addressing infectious diseases in low-income and middle-income countries.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed/Medline, Web of Science and Scopus were searched for eligible studies between January 2000 and November 2021.

STUDY SELECTION

Health economic and health-outcome studies on infectious diseases covering an education or training intervention in low-income and middle-income countries were included.

RESULTS

A total of 59 eligible studies covering training or education interventions for infectious diseases were found; infectious diseases were categorised as acute febrile infections (AFI), non-AFI and other non-acute infections. With regard to input parameters, the costs (direct and indirect) were most often reported. As outcome parameters, five categories were most often reported including final health outcomes, intermediate health outcomes, cost outcomes, prescription outcomes and health economic outcomes. Studies showed a wide range of per category variables included and a general lack of uniformity across studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Further standardisation is needed on the relevant input and outcome parameters in this field. A more standardised approach would improve generalisability and comparability of results and allow policy-makers to make better informed decisions on the most effective and cost-effective interventions.

Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in 2019: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a major threat to human health around the world. Previous publications have estimated the effect of AMR on incidence, deaths, hospital length of stay, and health-care costs for specific pathogen-drug combinations in select locations. To our knowledge, this study presents the most comprehensive estimates of AMR burden to date.

METHODS

We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 23 pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations in 204 countries and territories in 2019. We obtained data from systematic literature reviews, hospital systems, surveillance systems, and other sources, covering 471 million individual records or isolates and 7585 study-location-years. We used predictive statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including for locations with no data. Our approach can be divided into five broad components: number of deaths where infection played a role, proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest, and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden based on two counterfactuals: deaths attributable to AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by drug-susceptible infections), and deaths associated with AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection). We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity. We present final estimates aggregated to the global and regional level.

FINDINGS

On the basis of our predictive statistical models, there were an estimated 4·95 million (3·62-6·57) deaths associated with bacterial AMR in 2019, including 1·27 million (95% UI 0·911-1·71) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. At the regional level, we estimated the all-age death rate attributable to resistance to be highest in western sub-Saharan Africa, at 27·3 deaths per 100 000 (20·9-35·3), and lowest in Australasia, at 6·5 deaths (4·3-9·4) per 100 000. Lower respiratory infections accounted for more than 1·5 million deaths associated with resistance in 2019, making it the most burdensome infectious syndrome. The six leading pathogens for deaths associated with resistance (Escherichia coli, followed by Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa) were responsible for 929 000 (660 000-1 270 000) deaths attributable to AMR and 3·57 million (2·62-4·78) deaths associated with AMR in 2019. One pathogen-drug combination, meticillin-resistant S aureus, caused more than 100 000 deaths attributable to AMR in 2019, while six more each caused 50 000-100 000 deaths: multidrug-resistant excluding extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis, third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E coli, carbapenem-resistant A baumannii, fluoroquinolone-resistant E coli, carbapenem-resistant K pneumoniae, and third-generation cephalosporin-resistant K pneumoniae.

INTERPRETATION

To our knowledge, this study provides the first comprehensive assessment of the global burden of AMR, as well as an evaluation of the availability of data. AMR is a leading cause of death around the world, with the highest burdens in low-resource settings. Understanding the burden of AMR and the leading pathogen-drug combinations contributing to it is crucial to making informed and location-specific policy decisions, particularly about infection prevention and control programmes, access to essential antibiotics, and research and development of new vaccines and antibiotics. There are serious data gaps in many low-income settings, emphasising the need to expand microbiology laboratory capacity and data collection systems to improve our understanding of this important human health threat.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.

Studying the post-COVID-19 condition: research challenges, strategies, and importance of Core Outcome Set development

BACKGROUND

A substantial portion of people with COVID-19 subsequently experience lasting symptoms including fatigue, shortness of breath, and neurological complaints such as cognitive dysfunction many months after acute infection. Emerging evidence suggests that this condition, commonly referred to as long COVID but also known as post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) or post-COVID-19 condition, could become a significant global health burden.

MAIN TEXT

While the number of studies investigating the post-COVID-19 condition is increasing, there is no agreement on how this new disease should be defined and diagnosed in clinical practice and what relevant outcomes to measure. There is an urgent need to optimise and standardise outcome measures for this important patient group both for clinical services and for research and to allow comparing and pooling of data.

CONCLUSIONS

A Core Outcome Set for post-COVID-19 condition should be developed in the shortest time frame possible, for improvement in data quality, harmonisation, and comparability between different geographical locations. We call for a global initiative, involving all relevant partners, including, but not limited to, healthcare professionals, researchers, methodologists, patients, and caregivers. We urge coordinated actions aiming to develop a Core Outcome Set (COS) for post-COVID-19 condition in both the adult and paediatric populations.

A standardised Phase III clinical trial framework to assess therapeutic interventions for Lassa fever

Background

Only one recommendation currently exists for the treatment of Lassa fever (LF), which is ribavirin administered in conjunction with supportive care. This recommendation is primarily based on evidence generated from a single clinical trial that was conducted more than 30 years ago–the methodology and results of which have recently come under scrutiny. The requirement for novel therapeutics and reassessment of ribavirin is therefore urgent. However, a significant amount of work now needs to be undertaken to ensure that future trials for LF can be conducted consistently and reliably to facilitate the efficient generation of evidence.

Methodology

We convened a consultation group to establish the position of clinicians and researchers on the core components of future trials. A Core Eligibility Criteria (CEC), Core Case Definition (CCD), Core Outcome Set (COS) and Core Data Variables (CDV) were developed through the process of a multi-stakeholder consultation that took place using a modified-Delphi methodology.

Results

A consensus position was achieved for each aspect of the framework, which accounts for the inclusion of pregnant women and children in future LF clinical trials. The framework consists of 8 core criteria, as well as additional considerations for trial protocols.

Conclusions

This project represents the first step towards delineating the clinical development pathway for new Lassa fever therapeutics, following a period of 40 years without advancement. Future planned projects will bolster the work initiated here to continue the advancement of LF clinical research through a regionally-centred, collaborative methodology, with the aim of delineating a clear pathway through which LF clinical trials can progress efficiently and ensure sustainable investments are made in research capacity at a regional level.

Lassa fever (LF) is an acute viral haemorrhagic fever endemic to West Africa, causing an estimated 500,000 new infections and 10,000 deaths per year. At present, no treatment has been developed to specifically treat LF and only one prospective clinical trial has been conducted to evaluate the current treatment recommendation. Before a new era of LF clinical trials can begin, it is important to develop standardised methods and tools to ensure that trials are conducted in a consistent way and can generate reliable, comparable data. The aim of this project was initiate the first step to improve the comparability of LF studies by developing a standardised Phase III clinical trial methodology for LF therapeutics that could be applied in low-resource settings. Through multi-stakeholder consultation, we established a consensus position of clinicians and researchers on the core components of future Phase III clinical trials: Core Eligibility Criteria (CEC), Core Case Definition (CCD), Core Outcome Set (COS) and Core Data Variables (CDV).

Azithromycin and cefixime combination versus azithromycin alone for the out-patient treatment of clinically suspected or confirmed uncomplicated typhoid fever in South Asia: a randomised controlled trial protocol

Background: Typhoid and paratyphoid fever (enteric fever) is a common cause of non-specific febrile infection in adults and children presenting to health care facilities in low resource settings such as the South Asia.  A 7-day course of a single oral antimicrobial such as ciprofloxacin, cefixime, or azithromycin is commonly used for its treatment. Increasing antimicrobial resistance threatens the effectiveness of these treatment choices. We hypothesize that combined treatment with azithromycin (active mainly intracellularly) and cefixime (active mainly extracellularly) will be a better option for the treatment of clinically suspected and culture-confirmed typhoid fever in South Asia.

Methods: This is a phase IV, international multi-center, multi-country, comparative participant-and observer-blind, 1:1 randomised clinical trial. Patients with suspected uncomplicated typhoid fever will be randomized to one of the two interventions: Arm A: azithromycin 20mg/kg/day oral dose once daily (maximum 1gm/day) and cefixime 20mg/kg/day oral dose in two divided doses (maximum 400mg bd) for 7 days, Arm B: azithromycin 20mg/kg/day oral dose once daily (max 1gm/day) for 7 days AND cefixime-matched placebo for 7 days. We will recruit 1500 patients across sites in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan. We will assess whether treatment outcomes are better with the combination after one week of treatment and at one- and three-months follow-up.

Discussion: Combined treatment may limit the emergence of resistance if one of the components is active against resistant sub-populations not covered by the other antimicrobial activity. If the combined treatment is better than the single antimicrobial treatment, this will be an important result for patients across South Asia and other typhoid endemic areas.

Clinicaltrials.gov registration: NCT04349826 (16/04/2020)

Azithromycin and cefixime combination versus azithromycin alone for the out-patient treatment of clinically suspected or confirmed uncomplicated typhoid fever in South Asia: a randomised controlled trial protocol

Background: Typhoid and paratyphoid fever (enteric fever) is a common cause of non-specific febrile infection in adults and children presenting to health care facilities in low resource settings such as the South Asia.  A 7-day course of a single oral antimicrobial such as ciprofloxacin, cefixime, or azithromycin is commonly used for its treatment. Increasing antimicrobial resistance threatens the effectiveness of these treatment choices. We hypothesize that combined treatment with azithromycin (active mainly intracellularly) and cefixime (active mainly extracellularly) will be a better option for the treatment of clinically suspected and culture-confirmed typhoid fever in South Asia. Methods: This is a phase IV, international multi-center, multi-country, comparative participant-and observer-blind, 1:1 randomised clinical trial. Patients with suspected uncomplicated typhoid fever will be randomized to one of the two interventions: Arm A: azithromycin 20mg/kg/day oral dose once daily (maximum 1gm/day) and cefixime 20mg/kg/day oral dose in two divided doses (maximum 400mg bd) for 7 days, Arm B: azithromycin 20mg/kg/day oral dose once daily (max 1gm/day) for 7 days AND cefixime-matched placebo for 7 days. We will recruit 1500 patients across sites in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan. We will assess whether treatment outcomes are better with the combination after one week of treatment and at one- and three-months follow-up. Discussion: Combined treatment may limit the emergence of resistance if one of the components is active against resistant sub-populations not covered by the other antimicrobial activity. If the combined treatment is better than the single antimicrobial treatment, this will be an important result for patients across South Asia and other typhoid endemic areas. Clinicaltrials.gov registration: NCT04349826 (16/04/2020).

Characterising long COVID: a living systematic review

BACKGROUND

While it is now apparent clinical sequelae (long COVID) may persist after acute COVID-19, their nature, frequency and aetiology are poorly characterised. This study aims to regularly synthesise evidence on long COVID characteristics, to help inform clinical management, rehabilitation strategies and interventional studies to improve long-term outcomes.

METHODS

A living systematic review. Medline, CINAHL (EBSCO), Global Health (Ovid), WHO Global Research on COVID-19 database, LitCovid and Google Scholar were searched till 17 March 2021. Studies including at least 100 people with confirmed or clinically suspected COVID-19 at 12 weeks or more post onset were included. Risk of bias was assessed using the tool produced by Hoy et al. Results were analysed using descriptive statistics and meta-analyses to estimate prevalence.

RESULTS

A total of 39 studies were included: 32 cohort, 6 cross-sectional and 1 case-control. Most showed high or moderate risk of bias. None were set in low-income countries and few included children. Studies reported on 10 951 people (48% female) in 12 countries. Most included previously hospitalised people (78%, 8520/10 951). The longest mean follow-up time was 221.7 (SD: 10.9) days post COVID-19 onset. Over 60 physical and psychological signs and symptoms with wide prevalence were reported, most commonly weakness (41%; 95% CI 25% to 59%), general malaise (33%; 95% CI 15% to 57%), fatigue (31%; 95% CI 24% to 39%), concentration impairment (26%; 95% CI 21% to 32%) and breathlessness (25%; 95% CI 18% to 34%). 37% (95% CI 18% to 60%) of patients reported reduced quality of life; 26% (10/39) of studies presented evidence of reduced pulmonary function.

CONCLUSION

Long COVID is a complex condition with prolonged heterogeneous symptoms. The nature of studies precludes a precise case definition or risk evaluation. There is an urgent need for prospective, robust, standardised, controlled studies into aetiology, risk factors and biomarkers to characterise long COVID in different at-risk populations and settings.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020211131.

Incidence and risk factors for persistent symptoms in adults previously hospitalized for COVID-19

Background

The long‐term sequalae of COVID‐19 remain poorly characterized. We assessed persistent symptoms in previously hospitalized patients with COVID‐19 and assessed potential risk factors.

Methods

Data were collected from patients discharged from 4 hospitals in Moscow, Russia between 8 April and 10 July 2020. Participants were interviewed via telephone using an ISARIC Long‐term Follow‐up Study questionnaire.

Results

2,649 of 4755 (56%) discharged patients were successfully evaluated, at median 218 (IQR 200, 236) days post‐discharge. COVID‐19 diagnosis was clinical in 1291 and molecular in 1358. Most cases were mild, but 902 (34%) required supplemental oxygen and 68 (2.6%) needed ventilatory support. Median age was 56 years (IQR 46, 66) and 1,353 (51.1%) were women. Persistent symptoms were reported by 1247 (47.1%) participants, with fatigue (21.2%), shortness of breath (14.5%) and forgetfulness (9.1%) the most common symptoms and chronic fatigue (25%) and respiratory (17.2%) the most common symptom categories. Female sex was associated with any persistent symptom category OR 1.83 (95% CI 1.55 to 2.17) with association being strongest for dermatological (3.26, 2.36 to 4.57) symptoms. Asthma and chronic pulmonary disease were not associated with persistent symptoms overall, but asthma was associated with neurological (1.95, 1.25 to 2.98) and mood and behavioural changes (2.02, 1.24 to 3.18), and chronic pulmonary disease was associated with chronic fatigue (1.68, 1.21 to 2.32).

Conclusions

Almost half of adults admitted to hospital due to COVID‐19 reported persistent symptoms 6 to 8 months after discharge. Fatigue and respiratory symptoms were most common, and female sex was associated with persistent symptoms.

Characterisation of in-hospital complications associated with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK: a prospective, multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 is a multisystem disease and patients who survive might have in-hospital complications. These complications are likely to have important short-term and long-term consequences for patients, health-care utilisation, health-care system preparedness, and society amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Our aim was to characterise the extent and effect of COVID-19 complications, particularly in those who survive, using the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK.

METHODS

We did a prospective, multicentre cohort study in 302 UK health-care facilities. Adult patients aged 19 years or older, with confirmed or highly suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection leading to COVID-19 were included in the study. The primary outcome of this study was the incidence of in-hospital complications, defined as organ-specific diagnoses occurring alone or in addition to any hallmarks of COVID-19 illness. We used multilevel logistic regression and survival models to explore associations between these outcomes and in-hospital complications, age, and pre-existing comorbidities.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 17 and Aug 4, 2020, 80 388 patients were included in the study. Of the patients admitted to hospital for management of COVID-19, 49·7% (36 367 of 73 197) had at least one complication. The mean age of our cohort was 71·1 years (SD 18·7), with 56·0% (41 025 of 73 197) being male and 81·0% (59 289 of 73 197) having at least one comorbidity. Males and those aged older than 60 years were most likely to have a complication (aged ≥60 years: 54·5% [16 579 of 30 416] in males and 48·2% [11 707 of 24 288] in females; aged <60 years: 48·8% [5179 of 10 609] in males and 36·6% [2814 of 7689] in females). Renal (24·3%, 17 752 of 73 197), complex respiratory (18·4%, 13 486 of 73 197), and systemic (16·3%, 11 895 of 73 197) complications were the most frequent. Cardiovascular (12·3%, 8973 of 73 197), neurological (4·3%, 3115 of 73 197), and gastrointestinal or liver (0·8%, 7901 of 73 197) complications were also reported.

INTERPRETATION

Complications and worse functional outcomes in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are high, even in young, previously healthy individuals. Acute complications are associated with reduced ability to self-care at discharge, with neurological complications being associated with the worst functional outcomes. COVID-19 complications are likely to cause a substantial strain on health and social care in the coming years. These data will help in the design and provision of services aimed at the post-hospitalisation care of patients with COVID-19.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research and the UK Medical Research Council.

Risk factors for long covid in previously hospitalised children using the ISARIC Global follow-up protocol: A prospective cohort study

Background

The long-term sequelae of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in children remain poorly characterised. This study aimed to assess long-term outcomes in children previously hospitalised with COVID-19 and associated risk factors.

Methods

This is a prospective cohort study of children (≤18 years old) admitted to hospital with confirmed COVID-19. Children admitted between 2 April 2020 and 26 August 2020 were included. Telephone interviews used the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) COVID-19 Health and Wellbeing Follow-up Survey for Children. Persistent symptoms (>5 months) were further categorised by system(s) involved.

Results

518 out of 853 (61%) eligible children were available for the follow-up assessment and included in the study. Median (interquartile range (IQR)) age was 10.4 (3–15.2) years and 270 (52.1%) were girls. Median (IQR) follow-up since hospital discharge was 256 (223–271) days. At the time of the follow-up interview 126 (24.3%) participants reported persistent symptoms, among which fatigue (53, 10.7%), sleep disturbance (36, 6.9%) and sensory problems (29, 5.6%) were the most common. Multiple symptoms were experienced by 44 (8.4%) participants. Risk factors for persistent symptoms were: older age “6–11 years” (OR 2.74, 95% CI 1.37–5.75) and “12–18 years” (OR 2.68, 95% CI 1.41–5.4), and a history of allergic diseases (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.04–2.67).

Conclusions

A quarter of children experienced persistent symptoms months after hospitalisation with acute COVID-19 infection, with almost one in 10 experiencing multisystem involvement. Older age and allergic diseases were associated with higher risk of persistent symptoms at follow-up.

A quarter of children experienced persistent symptoms months after COVID-19 infection, with almost one in 10 experiencing multisystem involvement. Older age and allergic diseases were associated with higher risk of persistent symptoms at follow-up.https://bit.ly/3vqeEmZ

Time to reconsider the role of ribavirin in Lassa fever

Ribavirin is the only available Lassa fever treatment. The rationale for using ribavirin is based on one clinical study conducted in the early 1980s. However, reanalysis of previous unpublished data reveals that ribavirin may actually be harmful in some Lassa fever patients. An urgent reevaluation of ribavirin is therefore needed.