Data challenges for international health emergencies: lessons learned from ten international COVID-19 driver projects

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of international data sharing and access to improve health outcomes for all. The International COVID-19 Data Alliance (ICODA) programme enabled 12 exemplar or driver projects to use existing health-related data to address major research questions relating to the pandemic, and developed data science approaches that helped each research team to overcome challenges, accelerate the data research cycle, and produce rapid insights and outputs. These approaches also sought to address inequity in data access and use, test approaches to ethical health data use, and make summary datasets and outputs accessible to a wider group of researchers. This Health Policy paper focuses on the challenges and lessons learned from ten of the ICODA driver projects, involving researchers from 19 countries and a range of health-related datasets. The ICODA programme reviewed the time taken for each project to complete stages of the health data research cycle and identified common challenges in areas such as data sharing agreements and data curation. Solutions included provision of standard data sharing templates, additional data curation expertise at an early stage, and a trusted research environment that facilitated data sharing across national boundaries and reduced risk. These approaches enabled the driver projects to rapidly produce research outputs, including publications, shared code, dashboards, and innovative resources, which can all be accessed and used by other research teams to address global health challenges.

Streptococcus pneumoniae as a colonizing agent of the Nasopharynx - Oropharynx in adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Streptococcus pneumoniae (Spn) is a commensal pathogen that usually colonizes the upper respiratory tract of children. Likewise, Spn colonization has been considered a critical factor in the development of pneumococcal invasive disease. However, Spn prevalence in adults remains unclear. This study performs a systematic review and meta-analysis to explore the prevalence of Spn Nasopharynx - Oropharynx Colonization (NOC) in adults.

METHODS

A Systematic review of scientific databases was utilized to identify eligible studies that follow strict selection criteria. Subsequently, a meta-analysis was conducted to establish NOC prevalence in adults (≥18 years old). The heterogeneity and sensitivity analyses were assessed using the microorganism identification technique, sample type, and age subgroups.

RESULTS

Initial selection includes 69 studies, with 37 selected for the meta-analysis, involving 23,724 individuals. The overall prevalence (95 % CI) of Spn NOC among adults was 6 % (5-9). The subgroup analysis revealed that young adults (YA), 18-64 years old, had a prevalence of 10 %, whereas older adults (OA), ≥65 years old, had a prevalence of 2 %. The identification of Spn NOC may vary depending on the method of diagnosis used. High heterogeneity (I2 > 90 %) was observed but diminished to 70 % when the analysis was restricted to oropharyngeal swabs as an identification method. Furthermore, heterogeneity decreased to 58 % when exclusively employing traditional culture as the identification method.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found a low prevalence of Spn NOC in adults. Notably, the prevalence of Spn NOC was higher in younger adults than in older adults. It is essential to highlight a significant heterogeneity among studies, which indicates there is no standardized method of Spn NOC identification.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325-364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120-4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98-2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1-29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000-611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000-320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1-104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000-555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6-49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5-27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000-459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000-194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9-46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3-61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9-35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1-18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8-78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6-75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK).

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Challenges for a broad international implementation of the current severe community-acquired pneumonia guidelines

Severe community-acquired pneumonia (sCAP) remains one of the leading causes of admission to the intensive care unit, thus consuming a large share of resources and is associated with high mortality rates worldwide. The evidence generated by clinical studies in the last decade was translated into recommendations according to the first published guidelines focusing on severe community-acquired pneumonia. Despite the advances proposed by the present guidelines, several challenges preclude the prompt implementation of these diagnostic and therapeutic measures. The present article discusses the challenges for the broad implementation of the sCAP guidelines and proposes solutions when applicable.

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Major alteration of Lung Microbiome and the Host Reaction in critically ill COVID-19 Patients with high viral load

Background

Patients with COVID-19 under invasive mechanical ventilation are at higher risk of developing ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP), associated with increased healthcare costs, and unfavorable prognosis. The underlying mechanisms of this phenomenon have not been thoroughly dissected. Therefore, this study attempted to bridge this gap by performing a lung microbiota analysis and evaluating the host immune responses that could drive the development of VAP.

Materials and methods

In this prospective cohort study, mechanically ventilated patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were enrolled. Nasal swabs (NS), endotracheal aspirates (ETA), and blood samples were collected initially within 12 hours of intubation and again at 72 hours post-intubation. Plasma samples underwent cytokine and metabolomic analyses, while NS and ETA samples were sequenced for lung microbiome examination. The cohort was categorized based on the development of VAP. Data analysis was conducted using RStudio version 4.3.1.

Results

In a study of 36 COVID-19 patients on mechanical ventilation, significant differences were found in the nasal and pulmonary microbiome, notably in Staphylococcus and Enterobacteriaceae, linked to VAP. Patients with VAP showed a higher SARS-CoV-2 viral load, elevated neutralizing antibodies, and reduced inflammatory cytokines, including IFN-δ, IL-1β, IL-12p70, IL-18, IL-6, TNF-α, and CCL4. Metabolomic analysis revealed changes in 22 metabolites in non-VAP patients and 27 in VAP patients, highlighting D-Maltose-Lactose, Histidinyl-Glycine, and various phosphatidylcholines, indicating a metabolic predisposition to VAP.

Conclusions

This study reveals a critical link between respiratory microbiome alterations and ventilator-associated pneumonia in COVID-19 patients, with elevated SARS-CoV-2 levels and metabolic changes, providing novel insights into the underlying mechanisms of VAP with potential management and prevention implications.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The potential impact of PCV-13, PCV-15 and PCV-20 vaccines in Colombia

PURPOSE

To provide information about which pneumococcal vaccine could have greater coverage in Colombia.

METHODS

This is a retrospective analysis of patients diagnosed with invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) between 2015 and 2019 in Bogotá, Colombia. We compared the theoretical serotype coverage of the available anti-pneumococcal vaccines (i.e., PCV-10, PCV-10 SII, PCV-13, PCV-15, PCV-20, PCV-21, PCV24, PPSV-23) and the non-vaccine-covered serotypes stratified by age.

RESULTS

690 IPD cases were included. In children ≤5 y/o, of the approved vaccines PCV-20 showed the most theoretical protection (71.3 % [149/209]), while in adults aged 18-64 y/o was PCV-20 (61.8 % [164/265]), and in those ≥65 y/o was PPSV-23 (58.1 % [100/172]) followed by PCV-20 (55.2 % [95/172]). The non-covered serotypes represented one-third of the cohort (33.9 % [234/690]), being 6C (20.5 % [48/234]), 15A (12.8 % [30/234]), and 23A (11.5 % [27/234]) the most prevalent.

CONCLUSION

Introducing PCV-20 for children and PCV-20 along with a PPSV-23 booster in adults may reduce IPD frequency in all ages in Colombia. The inclusion of non-covered serotypes is required for future vaccines.

Event rates and incidence of post-COVID-19 condition in hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 positive children and young people and controls across different pandemic waves: exposure-stratified prospective cohort study in Moscow (StopCOVID)

BACKGROUND

Long-term health outcomes in children and young people (CYP) after COVID-19 infection are not well understood and studies with control groups exposed to other infections are lacking. This study aimed to investigate the incidence of post-COVID-19 condition (PCC) and incomplete recovery in CYP after hospital discharge and compare outcomes between different SARS-CoV-2 variants and non-SARS-CoV-2 infections.

METHODS

A prospective exposure-stratified cohort study of individuals under 18 years old in Moscow, Russia. Exposed cohorts were paediatric patients admitted with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection between April 2 and December 11, 2020 (Wuhan variant cohort) and between January 12 and February 19, 2022 (Omicron variant cohort). CYP admitted with respiratory and intestinal infections, but negative lateral flow rapid diagnostic test and PCR-test results for SARS-CoV-2, between January 12 and February 19, 2022, served as unexposed reference cohort. Comparison between the 'exposed cohorts' and 'reference cohort' was conducted using 1:1 matching by age and sex. Follow-up data were collected via telephone interviews with parents, utilising the long COVID paediatric protocol and survey developed by the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC). The WHO case definition was used to categorise PCC.

RESULTS

Of 2595 CYP with confirmed COVID-19, 1707 (65.7%) participated in follow-up interviews, with 1183/1707 (69%) included in the final 'matched' analysis. The median follow-up time post-discharge was 6.7 months. The incidence of PCC was significantly higher in the Wuhan variant cohort (89.7 cases per 1000 person-months, 95% CI 64.3-120.3) compared to post-infection sequalae in the reference cohort (12.2 cases per 1000 person-months, 95% CI 4.9-21.9), whereas the difference with the Omicron variant cohort and reference cohort was not significant. The Wuhan cohort had higher incidence rates of dermatological, fatigue, gastrointestinal, sensory, and sleep manifestations, as well as behavioural and emotional problems than the reference cohort. The only significant difference between Omicron variant cohort and reference cohort was decreased school attendance. When comparing the Wuhan and Omicron variant cohorts, higher incidence of PCC and event rates of fatigue, decreased physical activity, and deterioration of relationships was observed. The rate of incomplete recovery was also significantly higher in the Wuhan variant cohort than in both the reference and the Omicron variant cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Wuhan variant exhibited a propensity for inducing a broad spectrum of physical symptoms and emotional behavioural changes, suggesting a pronounced impact on long-term health outcomes. Conversely, the Omicron variant resulted in fewer post-infection effects no different from common seasonal viral illnesses. This may mean that the Omicron variant and subsequent variants might not lead to the same level of long-term health consequences as earlier variants.

Vaccine breakthrough hypoxemic COVID-19 pneumonia in patients with auto-Abs neutralizing type I IFNs

Life-threatening "breakthrough" cases of critical COVID-19 are attributed to poor or waning antibody (Ab) response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in individuals already at risk. Preexisting auto-Abs neutralizing type I IFNs underlie at least 15% of critical COVID-19 pneumonia cases in unvaccinated individuals; their contribution to hypoxemic breakthrough cases in vaccinated people is unknown. We studied a cohort of 48 individuals (aged 20 to 86 years) who received two doses of a messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine and developed a breakthrough infection with hypoxemic COVID-19 pneumonia 2 weeks to 4 months later. Ab levels to the vaccine, neutralization of the virus, and auto-Abs to type I IFNs were measured in the plasma. Forty-two individuals had no known deficiency of B cell immunity and a normal Ab response to the vaccine. Among them, 10 (24%) had auto-Abs neutralizing type I IFNs (aged 43 to 86 years). Eight of these 10 patients had auto-Abs neutralizing both IFN-α2 and IFN-ω, whereas two neutralized IFN-ω only. No patient neutralized IFN-β. Seven neutralized type I IFNs at 10 ng/ml and three at 100 pg/ml only. Seven patients neutralized SARS-CoV-2 D614G and Delta efficiently, whereas one patient neutralized Delta slightly less efficiently. Two of the three patients neutralizing only type I IFNs at 100 pg/ml neutralized both D614G and Delta less efficiently. Despite two mRNA vaccine inoculations and the presence of circulating Abs capable of neutralizing SARS-CoV-2, auto-Abs neutralizing type I IFNs may underlie a notable proportion of hypoxemic COVID-19 pneumonia cases, highlighting the importance of this particularly vulnerable population.

Intravenous Vitamin C for Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19: Two Harmonized Randomized Clinical Trials

Importance

The efficacy of vitamin C for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 is uncertain.

Objective

To determine whether vitamin C improves outcomes for patients with COVID-19.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Two prospectively harmonized randomized clinical trials enrolled critically ill patients receiving organ support in intensive care units (90 sites) and patients who were not critically ill (40 sites) between July 23, 2020, and July 15, 2022, on 4 continents.

Interventions

Patients were randomized to receive vitamin C administered intravenously or control (placebo or no vitamin C) every 6 hours for 96 hours (maximum of 16 doses).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was a composite of organ support-free days defined as days alive and free of respiratory and cardiovascular organ support in the intensive care unit up to day 21 and survival to hospital discharge. Values ranged from -1 organ support-free days for patients experiencing in-hospital death to 22 organ support-free days for those who survived without needing organ support. The primary analysis used a bayesian cumulative logistic model. An odds ratio (OR) greater than 1 represented efficacy (improved survival, more organ support-free days, or both), an OR less than 1 represented harm, and an OR less than 1.2 represented futility.

Results

Enrollment was terminated after statistical triggers for harm and futility were met. The trials had primary outcome data for 1568 critically ill patients (1037 in the vitamin C group and 531 in the control group; median age, 60 years [IQR, 50-70 years]; 35.9% were female) and 1022 patients who were not critically ill (456 in the vitamin C group and 566 in the control group; median age, 62 years [IQR, 51-72 years]; 39.6% were female). Among critically ill patients, the median number of organ support-free days was 7 (IQR, -1 to 17 days) for the vitamin C group vs 10 (IQR, -1 to 17 days) for the control group (adjusted proportional OR, 0.88 [95% credible interval {CrI}, 0.73 to 1.06]) and the posterior probabilities were 8.6% (efficacy), 91.4% (harm), and 99.9% (futility). Among patients who were not critically ill, the median number of organ support-free days was 22 (IQR, 18 to 22 days) for the vitamin C group vs 22 (IQR, 21 to 22 days) for the control group (adjusted proportional OR, 0.80 [95% CrI, 0.60 to 1.01]) and the posterior probabilities were 2.9% (efficacy), 97.1% (harm), and greater than 99.9% (futility). Among critically ill patients, survival to hospital discharge was 61.9% (642/1037) for the vitamin C group vs 64.6% (343/531) for the control group (adjusted OR, 0.92 [95% CrI, 0.73 to 1.17]) and the posterior probability was 24.0% for efficacy. Among patients who were not critically ill, survival to hospital discharge was 85.1% (388/456) for the vitamin C group vs 86.6% (490/566) for the control group (adjusted OR, 0.86 [95% CrI, 0.61 to 1.17]) and the posterior probability was 17.8% for efficacy.

Conclusions and Relevance

In hospitalized patients with COVID-19, vitamin C had low probability of improving the primary composite outcome of organ support-free days and hospital survival.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifiers: NCT04401150 (LOVIT-COVID) and NCT02735707 (REMAP-CAP).

A multi-country analysis of COVID-19 hospitalizations by vaccination status

BACKGROUND

Individuals vaccinated against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), when infected, can still develop disease that requires hospitalization. It remains unclear whether these patients differ from hospitalized unvaccinated patients with regard to presentation, coexisting comorbidities, and outcomes.

METHODS

Here, we use data from an international consortium to study this question and assess whether differences between these groups are context specific. Data from 83,163 hospitalized COVID-19 patients (34,843 vaccinated, 48,320 unvaccinated) from 38 countries were analyzed.

FINDINGS

While typical symptoms were more often reported in unvaccinated patients, comorbidities, including some associated with worse prognosis in previous studies, were more common in vaccinated patients. Considerable between-country variation in both in-hospital fatality risk and vaccinated-versus-unvaccinated difference in this outcome was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings will inform allocation of healthcare resources in future surges as well as design of longer-term international studies to characterize changes in clinical profile of hospitalized COVID-19 patients related to vaccination history.

FUNDING

This work was made possible by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and Wellcome (215091/Z/18/Z, 222410/Z/21/Z, 225288/Z/22/Z, and 220757/Z/20/Z); the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1209135); and the philanthropic support of the donors to the University of Oxford's COVID-19 Research Response Fund (0009109). Additional funders are listed in the "acknowledgments" section.

Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with severe COVID-19 registered in the ISARIC WHO clinical characterization protocol: A prospective, multinational, observational study

PURPOSE

To determine its cumulative incidence, identify the risk factors associated with Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (MACE) development, and its impact clinical outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This multinational, multicentre, prospective cohort study from the ISARIC database. We used bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions to explore the risk factors related to MACE development and determine its impact on 28-day and 90-day mortality.

RESULTS

49,479 patients were included. Most were male 63.5% (31,441/49,479) and from high-income countries (84.4% [42,774/49,479]); however, >6000 patients were registered in low-and-middle-income countries. MACE cumulative incidence during their hospital stay was 17.8% (8829/49,479). The main risk factors independently associated with the development of MACE were older age, chronic kidney disease or cardiovascular disease, smoking history, and requirement of vasopressors or invasive mechanical ventilation at admission. The overall 28-day and 90-day mortality were higher among patients who developed MACE than those who did not (63.1% [5573/8829] vs. 35.6% [14,487/40,650] p < 0.001; 69.9% [6169/8829] vs. 37.8% [15,372/40,650] p < 0.001, respectively). After adjusting for confounders, MACE remained independently associated with higher 28-day and 90-day mortality (Odds Ratio [95% CI], 1.36 [1.33-1.39];1.47 [1.43-1.50], respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with severe COVID-19 frequently develop MACE, which is independently associated with worse clinical outcomes.

European Network for ICU-Related Respiratory Infections (ENIRRIs): a multinational, prospective, cohort study of nosocomial LRTI

PURPOSE

Lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) are the most frequent infectious complication in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). We aim to report the clinical characteristics of ICU-admitted patients due to nosocomial LRTI and to describe their microbiology and clinical outcomes.

METHODS

A prospective observational study was conducted in 13 countries over two continents from 9th May 2016 until 16th August 2019. Characteristics and outcomes of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP), ventilator-associated tracheobronchitis (VAT), ICU hospital-acquired pneumonia (ICU-HAP), HAP that required invasive ventilation (VHAP), and HAP in patients transferred to the ICU without invasive mechanical ventilation were collected. The clinical diagnosis and treatments were per clinical practice and not per protocol. Descriptive statistics were used to compare the study groups.

RESULTS

1060 patients with LRTI (72.5% male sex, median age 64 [50-74] years) were included in the study; 160 (15.1%) developed VAT, 556 (52.5%) VAP, 98 (9.2%) ICU-HAP, 152 (14.3%) HAP, and 94 (8.9%) VHAP. Patients with VHAP had higher serum procalcitonin (PCT) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores. Patients with VAP or VHAP developed acute kidney injury, acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiple organ failure, or septic shock more often. One thousand eight patients had microbiological samples, and 711 (70.5%) had etiological microbiology identified. The most common microorganisms were Pseudomonas aeruginosa (18.4%) and Klebsiella spp (14.4%). In 382 patients (36%), the causative pathogen shows some antimicrobial resistance pattern. ICU, hospital and 28-day mortality were 30.8%, 37.5% and 27.5%, respectively. Patients with VHAP had the highest ICU, in-hospital and 28-day mortality rates.

CONCLUSION

VHAP patients presented the highest mortality among those admitted to the ICU. Multidrug-resistant pathogens frequently cause nosocomial LRTI in this multinational cohort study.

The burden of antimicrobial resistance in the Americas in 2019: a cross-country systematic analysis

Background

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an urgent global health challenge and a critical threat to modern health care. Quantifying its burden in the WHO Region of the Americas has been elusive-despite the region's long history of resistance surveillance. This study provides comprehensive estimates of AMR burden in the Americas to assess this growing health threat.

Methods

We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with AMR for 23 bacterial pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations for countries in the WHO Region of the Americas in 2019. We obtained data from mortality registries, surveillance systems, hospital systems, systematic literature reviews, and other sources, and applied predictive statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all countries in the Americas. Five broad components were the backbone of our approach: the number of deaths where infection had a role, the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of pathogens resistant to an antibiotic class, and the excess risk of mortality (or duration of an infection) associated with this resistance. We then used these components to estimate the disease burden by applying two counterfactual scenarios: deaths attributable to AMR (compared to an alternative scenario where resistant infections are replaced with susceptible ones), and deaths associated with AMR (compared to an alternative scenario where resistant infections would not occur at all). We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity.

Findings

We estimated 569,000 deaths (95% UI 406,000-771,000) associated with bacterial AMR and 141,000 deaths (99,900-196,000) attributable to bacterial AMR among the 35 countries in the WHO Region of the Americas in 2019. Lower respiratory and thorax infections, as a syndrome, were responsible for the largest fatal burden of AMR in the region, with 189,000 deaths (149,000-241,000) associated with resistance, followed by bloodstream infections (169,000 deaths [94,200-278,000]) and peritoneal/intra-abdominal infections (118,000 deaths [78,600-168,000]). The six leading pathogens (by order of number of deaths associated with resistance) were Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Acinetobacter baumannii. Together, these pathogens were responsible for 452,000 deaths (326,000-608,000) associated with AMR. Methicillin-resistant S. aureus predominated as the leading pathogen-drug combination in 34 countries for deaths attributable to AMR, while aminopenicillin-resistant E. coli was the leading pathogen-drug combination in 15 countries for deaths associated with AMR.

Interpretation

Given the burden across different countries, infectious syndromes, and pathogen-drug combinations, AMR represents a substantial health threat in the Americas. Countries with low access to antibiotics and basic health-care services often face the largest age-standardised mortality rates associated with and attributable to AMR in the region, implicating specific policy interventions. Evidence from this study can guide mitigation efforts that are tailored to the needs of each country in the region while informing decisions regarding funding and resource allocation. Multisectoral and joint cooperative efforts among countries will be a key to success in tackling AMR in the Americas.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Thrombotic and hemorrhagic complications of COVID-19 in adults hospitalized in high-income countries compared with those in adults hospitalized in low- and middle-income countries in an international registry

Background

COVID-19 has been associated with a broad range of thromboembolic, ischemic, and hemorrhagic complications (coagulopathy complications). Most studies have focused on patients with severe disease from high-income countries (HICs).

Objectives

The main aims were to compare the frequency of coagulopathy complications in developing countries (low- and middle-income countries [LMICs]) with those in HICs, delineate the frequency across a range of treatment levels, and determine associations with in-hospital mortality.

Methods

Adult patients enrolled in an observational, multinational registry, the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections COVID-19 study, between January 1, 2020, and September 15, 2021, met inclusion criteria, including admission to a hospital for laboratory-confirmed, acute COVID-19 and data on complications and survival. The advanced-treatment cohort received care, such as admission to the intensive care unit, mechanical ventilation, or inotropes or vasopressors; the basic-treatment cohort did not receive any of these interventions.

Results

The study population included 495,682 patients from 52 countries, with 63% from LMICs and 85% in the basic treatment cohort. The frequency of coagulopathy complications was higher in HICs (0.76%-3.4%) than in LMICs (0.09%-1.22%). Complications were more frequent in the advanced-treatment cohort than in the basic-treatment cohort. Coagulopathy complications were associated with increased in-hospital mortality (odds ratio, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.52-1.64). The increased mortality associated with these complications was higher in LMICs (58.5%) than in HICs (35.4%). After controlling for coagulopathy complications, treatment intensity, and multiple other factors, the mortality was higher among patients in LMICs than among patients in HICs (odds ratio, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.39-1.51).

Conclusion

In a large, international registry of patients hospitalized for COVID-19, coagulopathy complications were more frequent in HICs than in LMICs (developing countries). Increased mortality associated with coagulopathy complications was of a greater magnitude among patients in LMICs. Additional research is needed regarding timely diagnosis of and intervention for coagulation derangements associated with COVID-19, particularly for limited-resource settings.

Exploring the complex relationship between the lung microbiome and ventilator-associated pneumonia

INTRODUCTION

Understanding the presence and function of a diverse lung microbiome in acute lung infections, particularly ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP), is still limited, evidencing significant gaps in our knowledge.

AREAS COVERED

In this comprehensive narrative review, we aim to elucidate the contribution of the respiratory microbiome in the development of VAP by examining the current knowledge on the interactions among microorganisms. By exploring these intricate connections, we endeavor to enhance our understanding of the disease's pathophysiology and pave the way for novel ideas and interventions in studying the respiratory tract microbiome.

EXPERT OPINION

The conventional perception of lungs as sterile is deprecated since it is currently recognized the existence of a diverse microbial community within them. However, despite extensive research on the role of the respiratory microbiome in healthy lungs, respiratory chronic diseases and acute lung infections such as pneumonia are not fully understood. It is crucial to investigate further the relationship between the pathophysiology of VAP and the pulmonary microbiome, elucidating the mechanisms underlying the interactions between the microbiome, host immune response and mechanical ventilation for the development of VAP.

Impact of macrolide treatment on long-term mortality in patients admitted to the ICU due to CAP: a targeted maximum likelihood estimation and survival analysis

INTRODUCTION

Patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) have high mortality rates during the acute infection and up to ten years thereafter. Recommendations from international CAP guidelines include macrolide-based treatment. However, there is no data on the long-term outcomes of this recommendation. Therefore, we aimed to determine the impact of macrolide-based therapy on long-term mortality in this population.

METHODS

Registered patients in the MIMIC-IV database 16 years or older and admitted to the ICU due to CAP were included. Multivariate analysis, targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) to simulate a randomised controlled trial, and survival analyses were conducted to test the effect of macrolide-based treatment on mortality six-month (6 m) and twelve-month (12 m) after hospital admission. A sensitivity analysis was performed excluding patients with Pseudomonas aeruginosa or MRSA pneumonia to control for Healthcare-Associated Pneumonia (HCAP).

RESULTS

3775 patients were included, and 1154 were treated with a macrolide-based treatment. The non-macrolide-based group had worse long-term clinical outcomes, represented by 6 m [31.5 (363/1154) vs 39.5 (1035/2621), p < 0.001] and 12 m mortality [39.0 (450/1154) vs 45.7 (1198/2621), p < 0.001]. The main risk factors associated with long-term mortality were Charlson comorbidity index, SAPS II, septic shock, and respiratory failure. Macrolide-based treatment reduced the risk of dying at 6 m [HR (95% CI) 0.69 (0.60, 0.78), p < 0.001] and 12 m [0.72 (0.64, 0.81), p < 0.001]. After TMLE, the protective effect continued with an additive effect estimate of - 0.069.

CONCLUSION

Macrolide-based treatment reduced the hazard risk of long-term mortality by almost one-third. This effect remains after simulating an RCT with TMLE and the sensitivity analysis for the HCAP classification.

Risk factors for developing ventilator-associated lower respiratory tract infection in patients with severe COVID-19: a multinational, multicentre study, prospective, observational study

Around one-third of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 develop a severe illness that requires admission to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). In clinical practice, clinicians have learned that patients admitted to the ICU due to severe COVID-19 frequently develop ventilator-associated lower respiratory tract infections (VA-LRTI). This study aims to describe the clinical characteristics, the factors associated with VA-LRTI, and its impact on clinical outcomes in patients with severe COVID-19. This was a multicentre, observational cohort study conducted in ten countries in Latin America and Europe. We included patients with confirmed rtPCR for SARS-CoV-2 requiring ICU admission and endotracheal intubation. Only patients with a microbiological and clinical diagnosis of VA-LRTI were included. Multivariate Logistic regression analyses and Random Forest were conducted to determine the risk factors for VA-LRTI and its clinical impact in patients with severe COVID-19. In our study cohort of 3287 patients, VA-LRTI was diagnosed in 28.8% [948/3287]. The cumulative incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) was 18.6% [610/3287], followed by ventilator-associated tracheobronchitis (VAT) 10.3% [338/3287]. A total of 1252 bacteria species were isolated. The most frequently isolated pathogens were Pseudomonas aeruginosa (21.2% [266/1252]), followed by Klebsiella pneumoniae (19.1% [239/1252]) and Staphylococcus aureus (15.5% [194/1,252]). The factors independently associated with the development of VA-LRTI were prolonged stay under invasive mechanical ventilation, AKI during ICU stay, and the number of comorbidities. Regarding the clinical impact of VA-LRTI, patients with VAP had an increased risk of hospital mortality (OR [95% CI] of 1.81 [1.40-2.34]), while VAT was not associated with increased hospital mortality (OR [95% CI] of 1.34 [0.98-1.83]). VA-LRTI, often with difficult-to-treat bacteria, is frequent in patients admitted to the ICU due to severe COVID-19 and is associated with worse clinical outcomes, including higher mortality. Identifying risk factors for VA-LRTI might allow the early patient diagnosis to improve clinical outcomes.Trial registration: This is a prospective observational study; therefore, no health care interventions were applied to participants, and trial registration is not applicable.

Major adverse cardiovascular events are associated with necroptosis during severe COVID-19

BACKGROUND

The mechanisms used by SARS-CoV-2 to induce major adverse cardiac events (MACE) are unknown. Thus, we aimed to determine if SARS-CoV-2 can induce necrotic cell death to promote MACE in patients with severe COVID-19.

METHODS

This observational prospective cohort study includes experiments with hamsters and human samples from patients with severe COVID-19. Cytokines and serum biomarkers were analysed in human serum. Cardiac transcriptome analyses were performed in hamsters' hearts.

RESULTS

From a cohort of 70 patients, MACE was documented in 26% (18/70). Those who developed MACE had higher Log copies/mL of SARS-CoV-2, troponin-I, and pro-BNP in serum. Also, the elevation of IP-10 and a major decrease in levels of IL-17ɑ, IL-6, and IL-1rɑ were observed. No differences were found in the ability of serum antibodies to neutralise viral spike proteins in pseudoviruses from variants of concern. In hamster models, we found a stark increase in viral titters in the hearts 4 days post-infection. The cardiac transcriptome evaluation resulted in the differential expression of ~ 9% of the total transcripts. Analysis of transcriptional changes in the effectors of necroptosis (mixed lineage kinase domain-like, MLKL) and pyroptosis (gasdermin D) showed necroptosis, but not pyroptosis, to be elevated. An active form of MLKL (phosphorylated MLKL, pMLKL) was elevated in hamster hearts and, most importantly, in the serum of MACE patients.

CONCLUSION

SARS-CoV-2 identification in the systemic circulation is associated with MACE and necroptosis activity. The increased pMLKL and Troponin-I indicated the occurrence of necroptosis in the heart and suggested necroptosis effectors could serve as biomarkers and/or therapeutic targets. Trial registration Not applicable.

Risk factors and outcomes of lower respiratory tract infections after traumatic brain injury: a retrospective observational study

Background

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a public health problem with a high burden in terms of disability and death. Infections are a common complication, with respiratory infections being the most frequent. Most available studies have addressed the impact of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) after TBI; therefore, we aim to characterize the hospital impact of a broader entity, lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs).

Methods

This observational, retrospective, single-center cohort study describes the clinical features and risk factors associated with LRTIs in patients with TBI admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU). We used bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions to identify the risk factors associated with developing LRTI and determine its impact on hospital mortality.

Results

We included 291 patients, of whom 77% (225/291) were men. The median (IQR) age was 38 years (28-52 years). The most common cause of injury was road traffic accidents 72% (210/291), followed by falls 18% (52/291) and assault at 3% (9/291). The median (IQR) Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score on admission was 9 (6-14), and 47% (136/291) were classified as severe TBI, 13% (37/291) as moderate TBI, and 40% (114/291) as mild TBI. The median (IQR) injury severity score (ISS) was 24 (16-30). Nearly 48% (141/291) of patients presented at least one infection during hospitalization, and from those, 77% (109/141) were classified as LRTIs, which included tracheitis 55% (61/109), ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) 34% (37/109), and hospital-acquired pneumoniae (HAP) 19% (21/109). After multivariable analysis, the following variables were significantly associated with LRTIs: age (OR 1.1, 95% CI 1.01-1.2), severe TBI (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.1-6.9), AIS thorax (OR 1.4, 95 CI 1.1-1.8), and mechanical ventilation on admission (OR 3.7, 95% CI 1.1-13.5). At the same time, hospital mortality did not differ between groups (LRTI 18.6% vs. No LRTI 20.1%, p = 0.7), and ICU and hospital length of stay (LOS) were longer in the LRTI group (median [IQR] 12 [9-17] vs. 5 [3-9], p < 0.01) and (median [IQR] 21 [13-33] vs. 10 [5-18], p = 0.01), respectively. Time on the ventilator was longer for those with LRTIs.

Conclusion

The most common site/location of infection in patients with TBI admitted to ICU is respiratory. Age, severe TBI, thoracic trauma, and mechanical ventilation were identified as potential risk factors. LRTI was associated with prolonged ICU, hospital stay, and more days on a ventilator, but not with mortality.

Effect of Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor and Angiotensin Receptor Blocker Initiation on Organ Support-Free Days in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19.

Objective

To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non-critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022).

INTERVENTIONS

Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was organ support-free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes.

RESULTS

On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support-free days among critically ill patients was 10 (-1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (-1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support-free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707.

Rare predicted loss-of-function variants of type I IFN immunity genes are associated with life-threatening COVID-19

BACKGROUND

We previously reported that impaired type I IFN activity, due to inborn errors of TLR3- and TLR7-dependent type I interferon (IFN) immunity or to autoantibodies against type I IFN, account for 15-20% of cases of life-threatening COVID-19 in unvaccinated patients. Therefore, the determinants of life-threatening COVID-19 remain to be identified in ~ 80% of cases.

METHODS

We report here a genome-wide rare variant burden association analysis in 3269 unvaccinated patients with life-threatening COVID-19, and 1373 unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals without pneumonia. Among the 928 patients tested for autoantibodies against type I IFN, a quarter (234) were positive and were excluded.

RESULTS

No gene reached genome-wide significance. Under a recessive model, the most significant gene with at-risk variants was TLR7, with an OR of 27.68 (95%CI 1.5-528.7, P = 1.1 × 10-4) for biochemically loss-of-function (bLOF) variants. We replicated the enrichment in rare predicted LOF (pLOF) variants at 13 influenza susceptibility loci involved in TLR3-dependent type I IFN immunity (OR = 3.70[95%CI 1.3-8.2], P = 2.1 × 10-4). This enrichment was further strengthened by (1) adding the recently reported TYK2 and TLR7 COVID-19 loci, particularly under a recessive model (OR = 19.65[95%CI 2.1-2635.4], P = 3.4 × 10-3), and (2) considering as pLOF branchpoint variants with potentially strong impacts on splicing among the 15 loci (OR = 4.40[9%CI 2.3-8.4], P = 7.7 × 10-8). Finally, the patients with pLOF/bLOF variants at these 15 loci were significantly younger (mean age [SD] = 43.3 [20.3] years) than the other patients (56.0 [17.3] years; P = 1.68 × 10-5).

CONCLUSIONS

Rare variants of TLR3- and TLR7-dependent type I IFN immunity genes can underlie life-threatening COVID-19, particularly with recessive inheritance, in patients under 60 years old.

Epidemiology and outcomes of hospital-acquired bloodstream infections in intensive care unit patients: the EUROBACT-2 international cohort study

PURPOSE

In the critically ill, hospital-acquired bloodstream infections (HA-BSI) are associated with significant mortality. Granular data are required for optimizing management, and developing guidelines and clinical trials.

METHODS

We carried out a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥ 18 years of age) with HA-BSI treated in intensive care units (ICUs) between June 2019 and February 2021.

RESULTS

2600 patients from 333 ICUs in 52 countries were included. 78% HA-BSI were ICU-acquired. Median Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score was 8 [IQR 5; 11] at HA-BSI diagnosis. Most frequent sources of infection included pneumonia (26.7%) and intravascular catheters (26.4%). Most frequent pathogens were Gram-negative bacteria (59.0%), predominantly Klebsiella spp. (27.9%), Acinetobacter spp. (20.3%), Escherichia coli (15.8%), and Pseudomonas spp. (14.3%). Carbapenem resistance was present in 37.8%, 84.6%, 7.4%, and 33.2%, respectively. Difficult-to-treat resistance (DTR) was present in 23.5% and pan-drug resistance in 1.5%. Antimicrobial therapy was deemed adequate within 24 h for 51.5%. Antimicrobial resistance was associated with longer delays to adequate antimicrobial therapy. Source control was needed in 52.5% but not achieved in 18.2%. Mortality was 37.1%, and only 16.1% had been discharged alive from hospital by day-28.

CONCLUSIONS

HA-BSI was frequently caused by Gram-negative, carbapenem-resistant and DTR pathogens. Antimicrobial resistance led to delays in adequate antimicrobial therapy. Mortality was high, and at day-28 only a minority of the patients were discharged alive from the hospital. Prevention of antimicrobial resistance and focusing on adequate antimicrobial therapy and source control are important to optimize patient management and outcomes.

Necroptosis Drives Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events During Severe COVID-19

Background The mechanisms used by SARS-CoV-2 to induce major adverse cardiac events (MACE) are unknown. Thus, we aimed to determine if SARS-CoV-2 can infect the heart to kill cardiomyocytes and induce MACE in patients with severe COVID-19. Methods This observational prospective cohort study includes experiments with hamsters and human samples from patients with severe COVID-19. Cytokines and serum biomarkers were analyzed in human serum. Cardiac transcriptome analyses were performed in hamsters' hearts. Results From a cohort of 70 patients, MACE was documented in 26% (18/70). Those who developed MACE had higher Log copies/mL of SARS-CoV-2, troponin-I, and pro-BNP in serum. Also, the elevation of IP-10 and a major decrease in levels of IL-17ɑ, IL-6, and IL-1rɑ were observed. No differences were found in the ability of serum antibodies to neutralize viral spike proteins in pseudoviruses from variants of concern. In hamster models, we found a stark increase in viral titers in the hearts 4 days post-infection. The cardiac transcriptome evaluation resulted in the differential expression of ~ 9% of the total transcripts. Analysis of transcriptional changes of the effectors of necroptosis (mixed lineage kinase domain-like, MLKL) and pyroptosis (gasdermin D) showed necroptosis, but not pyroptosis, to be elevated. Active form of MLKL (phosphorylated MLKL, pMLKL) was elevated in hamster hearts and, most importantly, in the serum of MACE patients. Conclusion SARS-CoV-2 can reach the heart during severe COVID-19 and induce necroptosis in the heart of patients with MACE. Thus, pMLKL could be used as a biomarker of cardiac damage and a therapeutic target. Trial registration: Not applicable.

Comparison of systemic inflammatory profiles in COVID-19 and community-acquired pneumonia patients: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Inflammatory responses contribute to tissue damage in COVID-19 and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Although predictive values of different inflammatory biomarkers have been reported in both, similarities and differences of inflammatory profiles between these conditions remain uncertain. Therefore, we aimed to determine the similarities and differences of the inflammatory profiles between COVID-19 and CAP, and their association with clinical outcomes.

METHODS

We report a prospective observational cohort study; conducted in a reference hospital in Latin America. Patients with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia and CAP were included. Multiplex (Luminex) cytokine assays were used to measure the plasma concentration of 14 cytokines at hospital admission. After comparing similarities and differences in the inflammatory profile between COVID-19 and CAP patients, an unsupervised classification method (i.e., hierarchical clustering) was used to identify subpopulations within COVID-19 and CAP patients.

RESULTS

A total of 160 patients were included, 62.5% were diagnosed with COVID-19 (100/160), and 37.5% with CAP (60/160). Using the hierarchical clustering, COVID-19 and CAP patients were divided based on its inflammatory profile: pauci, moderate, and hyper-inflammatory immune response. COVID-19 hyper-inflammatory subpopulation had the highest mortality. COVID-19 hyper-inflammatory subpopulation, compared to pauci-inflammatory, had higher levels of IL-10 (median [IQR] 61.4 [42.0-109.4] vs 13.0 [5.0-24.9], P: < 0.001), IL-6 (48.1 [22.3-82.6] vs 9.1 [0.1-30.4], P: < 0.001), among others. Hyper-inflammatory vs pauci-inflammatory CAP patients were characterized by elevation of IFN2 (48.8 [29.7-110.5] vs 3.0 [1.7-10.3], P: < 0.001), TNFα (36.3 [24.8-53.4] vs 13.1 [11.3-16.9], P: < 0.001), among others. Hyper-inflammatory subpopulations in COVID-19 and CAP compared to the corresponding pauci-inflammatory subpopulations had higher MCP-1.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data highlights three distinct subpopulations in COVID-19 and CAP, with differences in inflammatory marker profiles and risks of adverse clinical outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This is a prospective study, therefore no health care intervention were applied to participants and trial registration is not applicable.

Rapid Detection of Carbapenemase and Extended-Spectrum β-Lactamase Producing Gram-Negative Bacteria Directly from Positive Blood Cultures Using a Novel Protocol

BACKGROUND

Early and adequate antibiotic treatment is the cornerstone of improving clinical outcomes in patients with bloodstream infections (BSI). Delays in appropriate antimicrobial therapy have catastrophic consequences for patients with BSI. Microbiological characterization of multi-drug resistant pathogens (MDRP) allows clinicians to provide appropriate treatments. Current microbiologic techniques may take up to 96 h to identify causative pathogens and their resistant patterns. Therefore, there is an important need to develop rapid diagnostic strategies for MDRP. We tested a modified protocol to detect carbapenemase and extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) producing Gram-negative bacteria (GNB) from positive blood cultures.

METHODS

This is a prospective cohort study of consecutive patients with bacteremia. We developed a modified protocol using the HB&L^® system to detect MDRP. The operational characteristics were analyzed for each test (HB&L-ESBL/AmpC^® and HB&L-Carbapenemase^® kits). The kappa coefficient, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), likelihood ratios (LR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), and reduction in identification time of this novel method were calculated.

RESULTS

Ninety-six patients with BSI were included in the study. A total of 161 positive blood cultures were analyzed. Escherichia coli (50%, 81/161) was the most frequently identified pathogen, followed by Klebsiella pneumoniae (15%, 24/161) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (8%, 13/161). Thirty-three percent of isolations had usual resistance patterns. However, 34/161 (21%) of identified pathogens were producers of carbapenemases and 21/161 (13%) of extended-spectrum β-lactamases. Concordance between our HB&L^® modified protocol and the traditional method was 99% (159/161). Finally, identification times were significantly shorter using our HB&L^®-modified protocol than traditional methods: median (IQR) 19 h (18, 22) vs. 61 h (60, 64), p < 0.001.

CONCLUSIONS

Here, we provide novel evidence that using our HB&L^®-modified protocol is an effective strategy to reduce the time to detect MDRP producers of carbapenemases or extended-spectrum β-lactamases, with an excellent concordance rate when compared to the gold standard. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings and to determine whether this method may improve clinical outcomes.

Could treatment with immunomodulatory agents targeting IL-1, IL-6, or JAK signalling improve outcomes in patients with severe influenza pneumonia? A systematic and narrative review

Background: Influenza is a global cause of morbidity and mortality and a significant risk for a future pandemic infection. Host hyperinflammation, similar to that seen in COVID-19, may occur in response to influenza virus pneumonia, with Janus kinase (JAK) signalling and proinflammatory cytokines Interleukin (IL)-1 and IL-6 involved. Immune modulation treatment of hospitalised and critically ill COVID-19 patients, including with IL-6 and JAK inhibitors, has been found to be beneficial. Significant interest exists in the use of immunomodulatory agents targeting these pathways in the treatment of severe influenza pneumonia. Methods: We conducted a review with both systematic and narrative methods to assess whether, in patients with severe influenza pneumonia, treatment with immunomodulatory agents targeting IL-1, IL-6 or JAK signalling, in comparison to no immune modulation, is beneficial and improves clinical outcomes. Results: Our systematic search screened 5409 records and found no randomised controlled trials of IL-1, IL-6 or JAK immunomodulatory agents in patients with severe influenza pneumonia. To support this systematic search, we provide a narrative review of the biological rationale, previous use of these agents, including in hospitalised patients with COVID-19, and an overview of their safety profiles. Conclusions: Although immune modulation has proven successful in treating hospitalised and critically ill patients with COVID-19 and a biological rationale exists for testing these agents in influenza, no agents targeting IL-1, IL-6 or JAK signalling have been assessed in randomised controlled trials of patients with severe influenza pneumonia. This highlights a significant evidence gap.

Rare predicted loss-of-function variants of type I IFN immunity genes are associated with life-threatening COVID-19

Background

We previously reported inborn errors of TLR3- and TLR7-dependent type I interferon (IFN) immunity in 1-5% of unvaccinated patients with life-threatening COVID-19, and auto-antibodies against type I IFN in another 15-20% of cases.

Methods

We report here a genome-wide rare variant burden association analysis in 3,269 unvaccinated patients with life-threatening COVID-19 (1,301 previously reported and 1,968 new patients), and 1,373 unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals without pneumonia. A quarter of the patients tested had antibodies against type I IFN (234 of 928) and were excluded from the analysis.

Results

No gene reached genome-wide significance. Under a recessive model, the most significant gene with at-risk variants was TLR7 , with an OR of 27.68 (95%CI:1.5-528.7, P= 1.1×10 -4 ), in analyses restricted to biochemically loss-of-function (bLOF) variants. We replicated the enrichment in rare predicted LOF (pLOF) variants at 13 influenza susceptibility loci involved in TLR3-dependent type I IFN immunity (OR=3.70 [95%CI:1.3-8.2], P= 2.1×10 -4 ). Adding the recently reported TYK2 COVID-19 locus strengthened this enrichment, particularly under a recessive model (OR=19.65 [95%CI:2.1-2635.4]; P= 3.4×10 -3 ). When these 14 loci and TLR7 were considered, all individuals hemizygous ( n =20) or homozygous ( n =5) for pLOF or bLOF variants were patients (OR=39.19 [95%CI:5.2-5037.0], P =4.7×10 -7 ), who also showed an enrichment in heterozygous variants (OR=2.36 [95%CI:1.0-5.9], P =0.02). Finally, the patients with pLOF or bLOF variants at these 15 loci were significantly younger (mean age [SD]=43.3 [20.3] years) than the other patients (56.0 [17.3] years; P= 1.68×10 -5 ).

Conclusions

Rare variants of TLR3- and TLR7-dependent type I IFN immunity genes can underlie life-threatening COVID-19, particularly with recessive inheritance, in patients under 60 years old.

An international observational study to assess the impact of the Omicron variant emergence on the clinical epidemiology of COVID-19 in hospitalised patients

Background

Whilst timely clinical characterisation of infections caused by novel SARS-CoV-2 variants is necessary for evidence-based policy response, individual-level data on infecting variants are typically only available for a minority of patients and settings.

Methods

Here, we propose an innovative approach to study changes in COVID-19 hospital presentation and outcomes after the Omicron variant emergence using publicly available population-level data on variant relative frequency to infer SARS-CoV-2 variants likely responsible for clinical cases. We apply this method to data collected by a large international clinical consortium before and after the emergence of the Omicron variant in different countries.

Results

Our analysis, that includes more than 100,000 patients from 28 countries, suggests that in many settings patients hospitalised with Omicron variant infection less often presented with commonly reported symptoms compared to patients infected with pre-Omicron variants. Patients with COVID-19 admitted to hospital after Omicron variant emergence had lower mortality compared to patients admitted during the period when Omicron variant was responsible for only a minority of infections (odds ratio in a mixed-effects logistic regression adjusted for likely confounders, 0.67 [95% confidence interval 0.61-0.75]). Qualitatively similar findings were observed in sensitivity analyses with different assumptions on population-level Omicron variant relative frequencies, and in analyses using available individual-level data on infecting variant for a subset of the study population.

Conclusions

Although clinical studies with matching viral genomic information should remain a priority, our approach combining publicly available data on variant frequency and a multi-country clinical characterisation dataset with more than 100,000 records allowed analysis of data from a wide range of settings and novel insights on real-world heterogeneity of COVID-19 presentation and clinical outcome.

Funding

Bronner P. Gonçalves, Peter Horby, Gail Carson, Piero L. Olliaro, Valeria Balan, Barbara Wanjiru Citarella, and research costs were supported by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and Wellcome [215091/Z/18/Z, 222410/Z/21/Z, 225288/Z/22/Z]; and Janice Caoili and Madiha Hashmi were supported by the UK FCDO and Wellcome [222048/Z/20/Z]. Peter Horby, Gail Carson, Piero L. Olliaro, Kalynn Kennon and Joaquin Baruch were supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1209135]; Laura Merson was supported by University of Oxford's COVID-19 Research Response Fund - with thanks to its donors for their philanthropic support. Matthew Hall was supported by a Li Ka Shing Foundation award to Christophe Fraser. Moritz U.G. Kraemer was supported by the Branco Weiss Fellowship, Google.org, the Oxford Martin School, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the European Union Horizon 2020 project MOOD (#874850). The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission. Contributions from Srinivas Murthy, Asgar Rishu, Rob Fowler, James Joshua Douglas, François Martin Carrier were supported by CIHR Coronavirus Rapid Research Funding Opportunity OV2170359 and coordinated out of Sunnybrook Research Institute. Contributions from Evert-Jan Wils and David S.Y. Ong were supported by a grant from foundation Bevordering Onderzoek Franciscus; and Andrea Angheben by the Italian Ministry of Health "Fondi Ricerca corrente-L1P6" to IRCCS Ospedale Sacro Cuore-Don Calabria. The data contributions of J.Kenneth Baillie, Malcolm G. Semple, and Ewen M. Harrison were supported by grants from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR; award CO-CIN-01), the Medical Research Council (MRC; grant MC_PC_19059), and by the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool in partnership with Public Health England (PHE) (award 200907), NIHR HPRU in Respiratory Infections at Imperial College London with PHE (award 200927), Liverpool Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre (grant C18616/A25153), NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at Imperial College London (award IS-BRC-1215-20013), and NIHR Clinical Research Network providing infrastructure support. All funders of the ISARIC Clinical Characterisation Group are listed in the appendix.

Respiratory support in patients with severe COVID-19 in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection (ISARIC) COVID-19 study: a prospective, multinational, observational study

BACKGROUND

Up to 30% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 require advanced respiratory support, including high-flow nasal cannulas (HFNC), non-invasive mechanical ventilation (NIV), or invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). We aimed to describe the clinical characteristics, outcomes and risk factors for failing non-invasive respiratory support in patients treated with severe COVID-19 during the first two years of the pandemic in high-income countries (HICs) and low middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

This is a multinational, multicentre, prospective cohort study embedded in the ISARIC-WHO COVID-19 Clinical Characterisation Protocol. Patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who required hospital admission were recruited prospectively. Patients treated with HFNC, NIV, or IMV within the first 24 h of hospital admission were included in this study. Descriptive statistics, random forest, and logistic regression analyses were used to describe clinical characteristics and compare clinical outcomes among patients treated with the different types of advanced respiratory support.

RESULTS

A total of 66,565 patients were included in this study. Overall, 82.6% of patients were treated in HIC, and 40.6% were admitted to the hospital during the first pandemic wave. During the first 24 h after hospital admission, patients in HICs were more frequently treated with HFNC (48.0%), followed by NIV (38.6%) and IMV (13.4%). In contrast, patients admitted in lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs) were less frequently treated with HFNC (16.1%) and the majority received IMV (59.1%). The failure rate of non-invasive respiratory support (i.e. HFNC or NIV) was 15.5%, of which 71.2% were from HIC and 28.8% from LMIC. The variables most strongly associated with non-invasive ventilation failure, defined as progression to IMV, were high leukocyte counts at hospital admission (OR [95%CI]; 5.86 [4.83-7.10]), treatment in an LMIC (OR [95%CI]; 2.04 [1.97-2.11]), and tachypnoea at hospital admission (OR [95%CI]; 1.16 [1.14-1.18]). Patients who failed HFNC/NIV had a higher 28-day fatality ratio (OR [95%CI]; 1.27 [1.25-1.30]).

CONCLUSIONS

In the present international cohort, the most frequently used advanced respiratory support was the HFNC. However, IMV was used more often in LMIC. Higher leucocyte count, tachypnoea, and treatment in LMIC were risk factors for HFNC/NIV failure. HFNC/NIV failure was related to worse clinical outcomes, such as 28-day mortality. Trial registration This is a prospective observational study; therefore, no health care interventions were applied to participants, and trial registration is not applicable.

Correlation and validity of imputed PaO2/FiO2 and SpO2/FiO2 in patients with invasive mechanical ventilation at 2600m above sea level

OBJECTIVE

To establish the correlation and validity between PaO2/FiO2 obtained on arterial gases versus noninvasive methods (linear, nonlinear, logarithmic imputation of PaO2/FiO2 and SpO2/FiO2) in patients under mechanical ventilation living at high altitude.

DESIGN

Ambispective descriptive multicenter cohort study.

SETTING

Two intensive care units (ICU) from Colombia at 2600m a.s.l.

PATIENTS OR PARTICIPANTS

Consecutive critically ill patients older than 18 years with at least 24h of mechanical ventilation were included from June 2016 to June 2019.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

VARIABLES

Variables analyzed were demographic, physiological messures, laboratory findings, oxygenation index and clinical condition. Nonlinear, linear and logarithmic imputation formulas were used to calculate PaO2 from SpO2, and at the same time the SpO2/FiO2 by severe hypoxemia diagnosis. The intraclass correlation coefficient, area under the ROC curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive and negative likelihood ratio were calculated.

RESULTS

The correlation between PaO2/FiO2 obtained from arterial gases, PaO2/FiO2 derived from one of the proposed methods (linear, non-linear, and logarithmic formula), and SpO2/FiO2 measured by the intraclass correlation coefficient was high (greater than 0.77, p<0.001). The different imputation methods and SpO2/FiO2 have a similar diagnostic performance in patients with severe hypoxemia (PaO2/FiO2 <150). PaO2/FiO2 linear imputation AUC ROC 0,84 (IC 0.81-0.87, p<0.001), PaO2/FiO2 logarithmic imputation AUC ROC 0.84 (IC 0.80-0.87, p<0.001), PaO2/FiO2 non-linear imputation AUC ROC 0.82 (IC 0.79-0.85, p<0.001), SpO2/FiO2 oximetry AUC ROC 0.84 (IC 0.81-0.87, p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

At high altitude, the SaO2/FiO2 ratio and the imputed PaO2/FiO2 ratio have similar diagnostic performance in patients with severe hypoxemia ventilated by various pathological conditions.

Impact of Aspergillus spp. isolation in the first 24 hours of admission in critically ill patients with severe influenza virus pneumonia

OBJECTIVE

To determine the incidence and impact of Aspergillus spp. isolation (AI) on ICU mortality in critically ill patients with severe influenza pneumonia during the first 24h of admission.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of an observational and prospective cohort study.

SETTING

ICUs voluntary participating in the Spanish severe Influenza pneumonia registry, between June 2009 and June 2019.

PATIENTS

Consecutive patients admitted to the ICU with diagnosis of severe influenza pneumonia, confirmed by real-time polymerase chain reaction.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST

Incidence of AI in respiratory samples. Demographic variables, comorbidities, need for mechanical ventilation and the presence of shock according at admission. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scale calculated on ICU admission.

RESULTS

3702 patients were analyzed in this study. AI incidence was 1.13% (n=42). Hematological malignancies (OR 4.39, 95% CI 1.92-10.04); HIV (OR 3.83, 95% CI 1.08-13.63), and other immunosuppression situations (OR 4.87, 95% CI 1.99-11.87) were factors independently associated with the presence of Aspergillus spp. The automatic CHAID decision tree showed that hematologic disease with an incidence of 3.3% was the most closely AI related variable. Hematological disease (OR 2.62 95% CI 1.95-3.51), immunosuppression (OR 2.05 95% CI 1.46-2.88) and AI (OR 3.24, 95% CI 1.60-6.53) were variables independently associated with ICU mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Empirical antifungal treatment in our population may only be justified in immunocompromised patients. In moderate-high risk cases, active search for Aspergillus spp. should be implemented.

Prior influenza vaccine is not a risk factor for bacterial coinfection in patients admitted to the ICU due to severe influenza

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the prior usage of the flu vaccine is a risk factor for bacterial co-infection in patients with severe influenza.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective observational cohort study of subjects admitted to the ICU. A propensity score matching, and logistic regression adjusted for potential confounders were carried out to evaluate the association between prior influenza vaccination and bacterial co-infection.

SETTINGS

184 ICUs in Spain due to severe influenza.

PATIENTS

Patients included in the Spanish prospective flu registry.

INTERVENTIONS

Flu vaccine prior to the hospital admission.

RESULTS

A total of 4175 subjects were included in the study. 489 (11.7%) received the flu vaccine prior to develop influenza infection. Prior vaccinated patients were older 71 [61-78], and predominantly male 65.4%, with at least one comorbid condition 88.5%. Prior vaccination was not associated with bacterial co-infection in the logistic regression model (OR: 1.017; 95%CI 0.803-1.288; p=0.885). After matching, the average treatment effect of prior influenza vaccine on bacterial co-infection was not statistically significant when assessed by propensity score matching (p=0.87), nearest neighbor matching (p=0.59) and inverse probability weighting (p=0.99).

CONCLUSIONS

No association was identified between prior influenza vaccine and bacterial coinfection in patients admitted to the ICU due to severe influenza. Post influenza vaccination studies are necessary to continue evaluating the possible benefits.

ISARIC-COVID-19 dataset: A Prospective, Standardized, Global Dataset of Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19

The International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) COVID-19 dataset is one of the largest international databases of prospectively collected clinical data on people hospitalized with COVID-19. This dataset was compiled during the COVID-19 pandemic by a network of hospitals that collect data using the ISARIC-World Health Organization Clinical Characterization Protocol and data tools. The database includes data from more than 705,000 patients, collected in more than 60 countries and 1,500 centres worldwide. Patient data are available from acute hospital admissions with COVID-19 and outpatient follow-ups. The data include signs and symptoms, pre-existing comorbidities, vital signs, chronic and acute treatments, complications, dates of hospitalization and discharge, mortality, viral strains, vaccination status, and other data. Here, we present the dataset characteristics, explain its architecture and how to gain access, and provide tools to facilitate its use.

Prevalence and risk factors of post-COVID-19 condition in adults and children at 6 and 12 months after hospital discharge: a prospective, cohort study in Moscow (StopCOVID)

BACKGROUND

Previous studies assessing the prevalence of COVID-19 sequelae in adults and children were performed in the absence of an agreed definition. We investigated prevalence of post-COVID-19 condition (PCC) (WHO definition), at 6- and 12-months follow-up, amongst previously hospitalised adults and children and assessed risk factors.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study of children and adults with confirmed COVID-19 in Moscow, hospitalised between April and August, 2020. Two follow-up telephone interviews, using the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium survey, were performed at 6 and 12 months after discharge.

RESULTS

One thousand thirteen of 2509 (40%) of adults and 360 of 849 (42%) of children discharged participated in both the 6- and 12-month follow-ups. PCC prevalence was 50% (95% CI 47-53) in adults and 20% (95% CI 16-24) in children at 6 months, with decline to 34% (95% CI 31-37) and 11% (95% CI 8-14), respectively, at 12 months. In adults, female sex was associated with PCC at 6- and 12-month follow-up (OR 2.04, 95% CI 1.57 to 2.65) and (OR 2.04, 1.54 to 2.69), respectively. Pre-existing hypertension (OR 1.42, 1.04 to 1.94) was associated with post-COVID-19 condition at 12 months. In children, neurological comorbidities were associated with PCC both at 6 months (OR 4.38, 1.36 to 15.67) and 12 months (OR 8.96, 2.55 to 34.82) while allergic respiratory diseases were associated at 12 months (OR 2.66, 1.04 to 6.47).

CONCLUSIONS

Although prevalence of PCC declined one year after discharge, one in three adults and one in ten children experienced ongoing sequelae. In adults, females and persons with pre-existing hypertension, and in children, persons with neurological comorbidities or allergic respiratory diseases are at higher risk of PCC.

The risk of COVID-19 death is much greater and age dependent with type I IFN autoantibodies

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection fatality rate (IFR) doubles with every 5 y of age from childhood onward. Circulating autoantibodies neutralizing IFN-α, IFN-ω, and/or IFN-β are found in ∼20% of deceased patients across age groups, and in ∼1% of individuals aged <70 y and in >4% of those >70 y old in the general population. With a sample of 1,261 unvaccinated deceased patients and 34,159 individuals of the general population sampled before the pandemic, we estimated both IFR and relative risk of death (RRD) across age groups for individuals carrying autoantibodies neutralizing type I IFNs, relative to noncarriers. The RRD associated with any combination of autoantibodies was higher in subjects under 70 y old. For autoantibodies neutralizing IFN-α2 or IFN-ω, the RRDs were 17.0 (95% CI: 11.7 to 24.7) and 5.8 (4.5 to 7.4) for individuals <70 y and ≥70 y old, respectively, whereas, for autoantibodies neutralizing both molecules, the RRDs were 188.3 (44.8 to 774.4) and 7.2 (5.0 to 10.3), respectively. In contrast, IFRs increased with age, ranging from 0.17% (0.12 to 0.31) for individuals <40 y old to 26.7% (20.3 to 35.2) for those ≥80 y old for autoantibodies neutralizing IFN-α2 or IFN-ω, and from 0.84% (0.31 to 8.28) to 40.5% (27.82 to 61.20) for autoantibodies neutralizing both. Autoantibodies against type I IFNs increase IFRs, and are associated with high RRDs, especially when neutralizing both IFN-α2 and IFN-ω. Remarkably, IFRs increase with age, whereas RRDs decrease with age. Autoimmunity to type I IFNs is a strong and common predictor of COVID-19 death.

Dexamethasone as risk-factor for ICU-acquired respiratory tract infections in severe COVID-19

PURPOSE

Dexamethasone is the only drug that has consistently reduced mortality in patients with COVID-19, especially in patients needing oxygen or invasive mechanical ventilation. However, there is a growing concern about the relation of dexamethasone with the unprecedented rates of ICU-acquired respiratory tract infections (ICU-RTI) observed in patients with severe COVID-19.

METHODS

This was a multicenter, prospective cohort study; conducted in ten countries in Latin America and Europe. We included patients older than 18 with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 requiring ICU admission. A multivariate logistic regression and propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was conducted to determine the relation between dexamethasone treatment and ICU-RTI.

RESULTS

A total of 3777 patients were included. 2065 (54.7%) were treated with dexamethasone within the first 24 h of admission. After performing the PSM, patients treated with dexamethasone showed significantly higher proportions of VAP (282/1652 [17.1%] Vs. 218/1652 [13.2%], p = 0.014). Also, dexamethasone treatment was identified as an adjusted risk factor of ICU-RTI in the multivariate logistic regression model (OR 1.64; 95%CI: 1.37-1.97; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Patients treated with dexamethasone for severe COVID-19 had a higher risk of developing ICU-acquired respiratory tract infections after adjusting for days of invasive mechanical ventilation and ICU length of stay, suggesting a cautious use of this treatment.

Studying the post-COVID-19 condition: research challenges, strategies, and importance of Core Outcome Set development

BACKGROUND

A substantial portion of people with COVID-19 subsequently experience lasting symptoms including fatigue, shortness of breath, and neurological complaints such as cognitive dysfunction many months after acute infection. Emerging evidence suggests that this condition, commonly referred to as long COVID but also known as post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) or post-COVID-19 condition, could become a significant global health burden.

MAIN TEXT

While the number of studies investigating the post-COVID-19 condition is increasing, there is no agreement on how this new disease should be defined and diagnosed in clinical practice and what relevant outcomes to measure. There is an urgent need to optimise and standardise outcome measures for this important patient group both for clinical services and for research and to allow comparing and pooling of data.

CONCLUSIONS

A Core Outcome Set for post-COVID-19 condition should be developed in the shortest time frame possible, for improvement in data quality, harmonisation, and comparability between different geographical locations. We call for a global initiative, involving all relevant partners, including, but not limited to, healthcare professionals, researchers, methodologists, patients, and caregivers. We urge coordinated actions aiming to develop a Core Outcome Set (COS) for post-COVID-19 condition in both the adult and paediatric populations.

Clinical characteristics, risk factors and outcomes in patients with severe COVID-19 registered in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium WHO clinical characterisation protocol: a prospective, multinational, multicentre, observational study

Due to the large number of patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), many were treated outside the traditional walls of the intensive care unit (ICU), and in many cases, by personnel who were not trained in critical care. The clinical characteristics and the relative impact of caring for severe COVID-19 patients outside the ICU is unknown. This was a multinational, multicentre, prospective cohort study embedded in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium World Health Organization COVID-19 platform. Severe COVID-19 patients were identified as those admitted to an ICU and/or those treated with one of the following treatments: invasive or noninvasive mechanical ventilation, high-flow nasal cannula, inotropes or vasopressors. A logistic generalised additive model was used to compare clinical outcomes among patients admitted or not to the ICU. A total of 40 440 patients from 43 countries and six continents were included in this analysis. Severe COVID-19 patients were frequently male (62.9%), older adults (median (interquartile range (IQR), 67 (55-78) years), and with at least one comorbidity (63.2%). The overall median (IQR) length of hospital stay was 10 (5-19) days and was longer in patients admitted to an ICU than in those who were cared for outside the ICU (12 (6-23) days versus 8 (4-15) days, p<0.0001). The 28-day fatality ratio was lower in ICU-admitted patients (30.7% (5797 out of 18 831) versus 39.0% (7532 out of 19 295), p<0.0001). Patients admitted to an ICU had a significantly lower probability of death than those who were not (adjusted OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.65-0.75; p<0.0001). Patients with severe COVID-19 admitted to an ICU had significantly lower 28-day fatality ratio than those cared for outside an ICU.

The Respiratory Rate-Oxygenation Index predicts failure of post-extubation high-flow nasal cannula therapy in intensive care unit patients: a retrospective cohort study

Objective

To investigate the applicability of the Respiratory Rate-Oxygenation Index to identify the risk of high-flow nasal cannula failure in post-extubation pneumonia patients.

Methods

This was a 2-year retrospective observational study conducted in a reference hospital in Bogotá, Colombia. All patients in whom post-extubation high-flow nasal cannula therapy was used as a bridge to extubation were included in the study. The Respiratory Rate-Oxygenation Index was calculated to assess the risk of post-extubation high-flow nasal cannula failure.

Results

A total of 162 patients were included in the study. Of these, 23.5% developed high-flow nasal cannula failure. The Respiratory Rate-Oxygenation Index was significantly lower in patients who had high-flow nasal cannula failure [median (IQR): 10.0 (7.7 - 14.4) versus 12.6 (10.1 - 15.6); p = 0.006]. Respiratory Rate-Oxygenation Index > 4.88 showed a crude OR of 0.23 (95%CI 0.17 - 0.30) and an adjusted OR of 0.89 (95%CI 0.81 - 0.98) stratified by severity and comorbidity. After logistic regression analysis, the Respiratory Rate-Oxygenation Index had an adjusted OR of 0.90 (95%CI 0.82 - 0.98; p = 0.026). The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve for extubation failure was 0.64 (95%CI 0.53 - 0.75; p = 0.06). The Respiratory Rate-Oxygenation Index did not show differences between patients who survived and those who died during the intensive care unit stay.

Conclusion

The Respiratory Rate-Oxygenation Index is an accessible tool to identify patients at risk of failing high-flow nasal cannula post-extubation treatment. Prospective studies are needed to broaden the utility in this scenario.

Effect of High-Flow Oxygen Therapy vs Conventional Oxygen Therapy on Invasive Mechanical Ventilation and Clinical Recovery in Patients With Severe COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

The effect of high-flow oxygen therapy vs conventional oxygen therapy has not been established in the setting of severe COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effect of high-flow oxygen therapy through a nasal cannula compared with conventional oxygen therapy on need for endotracheal intubation and clinical recovery in severe COVID-19.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Randomized, open-label clinical trial conducted in emergency and intensive care units in 3 hospitals in Colombia. A total of 220 adults with respiratory distress and a ratio of partial pressure of arterial oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen of less than 200 due to COVID-19 were randomized from August 2020 to January 2021, with last follow-up on February 10, 2021.

INTERVENTIONS

Patients were randomly assigned to receive high-flow oxygen through a nasal cannula (n = 109) or conventional oxygen therapy (n = 111).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The co-primary outcomes were need for intubation and time to clinical recovery until day 28 as assessed by a 7-category ordinal scale (range, 1-7, with higher scores indicating a worse condition). Effects of treatments were calculated with a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for hypoxemia severity, age, and comorbidities.

RESULTS

Among 220 randomized patients, 199 were included in the analysis (median age, 60 years; n = 65 women [32.7%]). Intubation occurred in 34 (34.3%) randomized to high-flow oxygen therapy and in 51 (51.0%) randomized to conventional oxygen therapy (hazard ratio, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.39-0.96; P = .03). The median time to clinical recovery within 28 days was 11 (IQR, 9-14) days in patients randomized to high-flow oxygen therapy vs 14 (IQR, 11-19) days in those randomized to conventional oxygen therapy (hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.00-1.92; P = .047). Suspected bacterial pneumonia occurred in 13 patients (13.1%) randomized to high-flow oxygen and in 17 (17.0%) of those randomized to conventional oxygen therapy, while bacteremia was detected in 7 (7.1%) vs 11 (11.0%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among patients with severe COVID-19, use of high-flow oxygen through a nasal cannula significantly decreased need for mechanical ventilation support and time to clinical recovery compared with conventional low-flow oxygen therapy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04609462.

Effect of High-Flow Oxygen Therapy vs Conventional Oxygen Therapy on Invasive Mechanical Ventilation and Clinical Recovery in Patients With Severe COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

The effect of high-flow oxygen therapy vs conventional oxygen therapy has not been established in the setting of severe COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effect of high-flow oxygen therapy through a nasal cannula compared with conventional oxygen therapy on need for endotracheal intubation and clinical recovery in severe COVID-19.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Randomized, open-label clinical trial conducted in emergency and intensive care units in 3 hospitals in Colombia. A total of 220 adults with respiratory distress and a ratio of partial pressure of arterial oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen of less than 200 due to COVID-19 were randomized from August 2020 to January 2021, with last follow-up on February 10, 2021.

INTERVENTIONS

Patients were randomly assigned to receive high-flow oxygen through a nasal cannula (n = 109) or conventional oxygen therapy (n = 111).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The co-primary outcomes were need for intubation and time to clinical recovery until day 28 as assessed by a 7-category ordinal scale (range, 1-7, with higher scores indicating a worse condition). Effects of treatments were calculated with a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for hypoxemia severity, age, and comorbidities.

RESULTS

Among 220 randomized patients, 199 were included in the analysis (median age, 60 years; n = 65 women [32.7%]). Intubation occurred in 34 (34.3%) randomized to high-flow oxygen therapy and in 51 (51.0%) randomized to conventional oxygen therapy (hazard ratio, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.39-0.96; P = .03). The median time to clinical recovery within 28 days was 11 (IQR, 9-14) days in patients randomized to high-flow oxygen therapy vs 14 (IQR, 11-19) days in those randomized to conventional oxygen therapy (hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.00-1.92; P = .047). Suspected bacterial pneumonia occurred in 13 patients (13.1%) randomized to high-flow oxygen and in 17 (17.0%) of those randomized to conventional oxygen therapy, while bacteremia was detected in 7 (7.1%) vs 11 (11.0%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among patients with severe COVID-19, use of high-flow oxygen through a nasal cannula significantly decreased need for mechanical ventilation support and time to clinical recovery compared with conventional low-flow oxygen therapy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04609462.