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Castelán-Sánchez HG, Delaye L, Inward RPD, Dellicour S, Gutierrez B, Martinez de la Vina N, Boukadida C, Pybus OG, de Anda Jáuregui G, Guzmán P, Flores-Garrido M, Fontanelli Ó, Hernández Rosales M, Meneses A, Olmedo-Alvarez G, Herrera-Estrella AH, Sánchez-Flores A, Muñoz-Medina JE, Comas-García A, Gómez-Gil B, Zárate S, Taboada B, López S, Arias CF, Kraemer MUG, Lazcano A, Escalera Zamudio M. Comparing the evolutionary dynamics of predominant SARS-CoV-2 virus lineages co-circulating in Mexico. eLife 2023; 12:e82069. [PMID: 37498057 PMCID: PMC10431917 DOI: 10.7554/elife.82069] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2022] [Accepted: 07/23/2023] [Indexed: 07/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Over 200 different SARS-CoV-2 lineages have been observed in Mexico by November 2021. To investigate lineage replacement dynamics, we applied a phylodynamic approach and explored the evolutionary trajectories of five dominant lineages that circulated during the first year of local transmission. For most lineages, peaks in sampling frequencies coincided with different epidemiological waves of infection in Mexico. Lineages B.1.1.222 and B.1.1.519 exhibited similar dynamics, constituting clades that likely originated in Mexico and persisted for >12 months. Lineages B.1.1.7, P.1 and B.1.617.2 also displayed similar dynamics, characterized by multiple introduction events leading to a few successful extended local transmission chains that persisted for several months. For the largest B.1.617.2 clades, we further explored viral lineage movements across Mexico. Many clades were located within the south region of the country, suggesting that this area played a key role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hugo G Castelán-Sánchez
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Programa de Investigadoras e Investigadores por México, Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y TecnologíaMexico CityMexico
| | - Luis Delaye
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Departamento de Ingeniería Genética, CINVESTAV-Unidad IrapuatoGuanajuatoMexico
| | - Rhys PD Inward
- Department of Biology, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Simon Dellicour
- Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Université Libre de BruxellesBruxellesBelgium
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, KU LeuvenLeuvenBelgium
| | - Bernardo Gutierrez
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Department of Biology, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | | | - Celia Boukadida
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Centro de Investigación en Enfermedades Infecciosas, Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades RespiratoriasMexico CityMexico
| | - Oliver G Pybus
- Department of Biology, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Department of Pathobiology, Royal Veterinary CollegeLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Guillermo de Anda Jáuregui
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Programa de Investigadoras e Investigadores por México, Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y TecnologíaMexico CityMexico
- Instituto Nacional de Medicina GenómicaMexico CityMexico
| | | | - Marisol Flores-Garrido
- Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoMexico CityMexico
- Departamento de Ciencias de la Computación, CINVESTAV-IPNMexico CityMexico
| | - Óscar Fontanelli
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Departamento de Ingeniería Genética, CINVESTAV-Unidad IrapuatoGuanajuatoMexico
| | - Maribel Hernández Rosales
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Departamento de Ingeniería Genética, CINVESTAV-Unidad IrapuatoGuanajuatoMexico
| | - Amilcar Meneses
- Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoMexico CityMexico
- Departamento de Ciencias de la Computación, CINVESTAV-IPNMexico CityMexico
| | - Gabriela Olmedo-Alvarez
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Departamento de Ingeniería Genética, CINVESTAV-Unidad IrapuatoGuanajuatoMexico
| | - Alfredo Heriberto Herrera-Estrella
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Laboratorio de expresión génica y desarrollo en hongos, CINVESTAV-Unidad IrapuatoIrapuatoMexico
| | - Alejandro Sánchez-Flores
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Unidad Universitaria de Secuenciación Masiva y Bioinformática, Instituto de Biotecnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoChamilpaMexico
| | - José Esteban Muñoz-Medina
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Coordinación de Calidad de Insumos y Laboratorios Especializados, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro SocialMexico CityMexico
| | - Andreu Comas-García
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Facultad de Medicina y Centro de Investigación en Ciencias de la Salud y Biomedicina, Universidad Autónoma de San Luis PotosíSan Luis PotosíMexico
| | - Bruno Gómez-Gil
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Centro de Investigación en Alimentación y Desarrollo-CIAD, Unidad Regional Mazatlán en Acuicultura y Manejo AmbientalSinaloaMexico
| | - Selene Zárate
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Posgrado en Ciencias Genómicas, Universidad Autónoma de la Ciudad de MéxicoMexico CityMexico
| | - Blanca Taboada
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Departamento de Genética del Desarrollo y Fisiología Molecular, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoCuernavacaMexico
| | - Susana López
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Departamento de Genética del Desarrollo y Fisiología Molecular, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoCuernavacaMexico
| | - Carlos F Arias
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Departamento de Genética del Desarrollo y Fisiología Molecular, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoCuernavacaMexico
| | - Moritz UG Kraemer
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Department of Biology, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Antonio Lazcano
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicMexico CityMexico
| | - Marina Escalera Zamudio
- Consorcio Mexicano de Vigilancia Genómica (CoViGen-Mex)Mexico CityMexico
- Department of Biology, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
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Gonçalves BP, Hall M, Jassat W, Balan V, Murthy S, Kartsonaki C, Semple MG, Rojek A, Baruch J, Reyes LF, Dasgupta A, Dunning J, Citarella BW, Pritchard M, Martín-Quiros A, Sili U, Baillie JK, Aryal D, Arabi Y, Rashan A, Angheben A, Caoili J, Carrier FM, Harrison EM, Gómez-Junyent J, Figueiredo-Mello C, Douglas JJ, Mat Nor MB, Chow YP, Wong XC, Bertagnolio S, Thwin SS, Streinu-Cercel A, Salazar L, Rishu A, Rangappa R, Ong DSY, Hashmi M, Carson G, Diaz J, Fowler R, Kraemer MUG, Wils EJ, Horby P, Merson L, Olliaro PL. An international observational study to assess the impact of the Omicron variant emergence on the clinical epidemiology of COVID-19 in hospitalised patients. eLife 2022; 11:e80556. [PMID: 36197074 PMCID: PMC9534549 DOI: 10.7554/elife.80556] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2022] [Accepted: 09/07/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Whilst timely clinical characterisation of infections caused by novel SARS-CoV-2 variants is necessary for evidence-based policy response, individual-level data on infecting variants are typically only available for a minority of patients and settings. Methods Here, we propose an innovative approach to study changes in COVID-19 hospital presentation and outcomes after the Omicron variant emergence using publicly available population-level data on variant relative frequency to infer SARS-CoV-2 variants likely responsible for clinical cases. We apply this method to data collected by a large international clinical consortium before and after the emergence of the Omicron variant in different countries. Results Our analysis, that includes more than 100,000 patients from 28 countries, suggests that in many settings patients hospitalised with Omicron variant infection less often presented with commonly reported symptoms compared to patients infected with pre-Omicron variants. Patients with COVID-19 admitted to hospital after Omicron variant emergence had lower mortality compared to patients admitted during the period when Omicron variant was responsible for only a minority of infections (odds ratio in a mixed-effects logistic regression adjusted for likely confounders, 0.67 [95% confidence interval 0.61-0.75]). Qualitatively similar findings were observed in sensitivity analyses with different assumptions on population-level Omicron variant relative frequencies, and in analyses using available individual-level data on infecting variant for a subset of the study population. Conclusions Although clinical studies with matching viral genomic information should remain a priority, our approach combining publicly available data on variant frequency and a multi-country clinical characterisation dataset with more than 100,000 records allowed analysis of data from a wide range of settings and novel insights on real-world heterogeneity of COVID-19 presentation and clinical outcome. Funding Bronner P. Gonçalves, Peter Horby, Gail Carson, Piero L. Olliaro, Valeria Balan, Barbara Wanjiru Citarella, and research costs were supported by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and Wellcome [215091/Z/18/Z, 222410/Z/21/Z, 225288/Z/22/Z]; and Janice Caoili and Madiha Hashmi were supported by the UK FCDO and Wellcome [222048/Z/20/Z]. Peter Horby, Gail Carson, Piero L. Olliaro, Kalynn Kennon and Joaquin Baruch were supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1209135]; Laura Merson was supported by University of Oxford's COVID-19 Research Response Fund - with thanks to its donors for their philanthropic support. Matthew Hall was supported by a Li Ka Shing Foundation award to Christophe Fraser. Moritz U.G. Kraemer was supported by the Branco Weiss Fellowship, Google.org, the Oxford Martin School, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the European Union Horizon 2020 project MOOD (#874850). The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission. Contributions from Srinivas Murthy, Asgar Rishu, Rob Fowler, James Joshua Douglas, François Martin Carrier were supported by CIHR Coronavirus Rapid Research Funding Opportunity OV2170359 and coordinated out of Sunnybrook Research Institute. Contributions from Evert-Jan Wils and David S.Y. Ong were supported by a grant from foundation Bevordering Onderzoek Franciscus; and Andrea Angheben by the Italian Ministry of Health "Fondi Ricerca corrente-L1P6" to IRCCS Ospedale Sacro Cuore-Don Calabria. The data contributions of J.Kenneth Baillie, Malcolm G. Semple, and Ewen M. Harrison were supported by grants from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR; award CO-CIN-01), the Medical Research Council (MRC; grant MC_PC_19059), and by the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool in partnership with Public Health England (PHE) (award 200907), NIHR HPRU in Respiratory Infections at Imperial College London with PHE (award 200927), Liverpool Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre (grant C18616/A25153), NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at Imperial College London (award IS-BRC-1215-20013), and NIHR Clinical Research Network providing infrastructure support. All funders of the ISARIC Clinical Characterisation Group are listed in the appendix.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bronner P Gonçalves
- ISARIC, Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Matthew Hall
- Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Waasila Jassat
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, South Africa; Right to CareJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Valeria Balan
- ISARIC, Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Srinivas Murthy
- Faculty of Medicine, University of British ColumbiaVancouverCanada
| | - Christiana Kartsonaki
- MRC Population Health Research Unit, Clinical Trials Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Malcolm G Semple
- Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of LiverpoolLiverpoolUnited Kingdom
- Respiratory Medicine, Alder Hey Children's Hospital, University of LiverpoolLiverpoolUnited Kingdom
| | - Amanda Rojek
- ISARIC, Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Royal Melbourne HospitalMelbourneAustralia
- Centre for Integrated Critical Care, University of MelbourneMelbourneAustralia
| | - Joaquín Baruch
- ISARIC, Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Luis Felipe Reyes
- ISARIC, Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Universidad de La SabanaChiaColombia
- Clinica Universidad de La SabanaChiaColombia
| | - Abhishek Dasgupta
- Department of Computer Science, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Department of Biology, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Jake Dunning
- ISARIC, Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | | | - Mark Pritchard
- ISARIC, Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | | | - Uluhan Sili
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology, School of Medicine, Marmara UniversityIstanbulTurkey
| | - J Kenneth Baillie
- Roslin Institute, University of EdinburghEdinburghUnited Kingdom
- Intensive Care Unit, Royal Infirmary of EdinburghEdinburghUnited Kingdom
| | - Diptesh Aryal
- Critical Care and Anesthesia, Nepal Mediciti HospitalLalitpurNepal
| | - Yaseen Arabi
- King Abdullah International Medical Research Center and King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health SciencesRiyadhSaudi Arabia
| | - Aasiyah Rashan
- Network for Improving Critical care Systems and TrainingColomboSri Lanka
| | - Andrea Angheben
- Department of Infectious, Tropical Diseases and Microbiology (DITM), IRCCS Sacro Cuore Don Calabria Hospital, Negrar di ValpolicellaVeronaItaly
| | | | - François Martin Carrier
- Department of Anesthesiology, Centre hospitalier de l'Université de MontréalMontréalCanada
- Department of Medicine, Critical Care Division, Centre hospitalier de l'Université de MontréalMontréalCanada
- Carrefour de l'innovation et santé des populations, Centre de recherche du Centre hospitalier de l'Université de Montréal (CRCHUM)MontréalCanada
- Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Université de MontréalMontréalCanada
| | - Ewen M Harrison
- Centre for Medical Informatics, The University of Edinburgh, Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and InformaticsEdinburghUnited Kingdom
| | - Joan Gómez-Junyent
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Hospital del Mar, Infectious Pathology and Antimicrobial Research Group (IPAR), Institut Hospital del Mar d'Investigacions Mèdiques (IMIM), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), CEXS-Universitat Pompeu FabraBarcelonaSpain
| | | | | | | | - Yock Ping Chow
- Clinical Research Centre, Sunway Medical Centre, Selangor Darul EhsanSelangorMalaysia
| | - Xin Ci Wong
- Digital Health Research and Innovation Unit, Institute for Clinical Research, National Institutes of Health (NIH)SelangorMalaysia
| | | | | | - Anca Streinu-Cercel
- Carol Davila University of Medicine and PharmacyBucharestRomania
- National Institute for Infectious Diseases "Prof. Dr. Matei Bals"BucharestRomania
| | | | - Asgar Rishu
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Sunnybrook Health Sciences CentreTorontoCanada
| | | | - David SY Ong
- Department of Medical Microbiology and Infection Control, Franciscus Gasthuis & VlietlandRotterdamNetherlands
| | - Madiha Hashmi
- Critical Care Asia and Ziauddin UniversityKarachiPakistan
| | - Gail Carson
- ISARIC, Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Janet Diaz
- World Health OrganizationGenèveSwitzerland
| | - Rob Fowler
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Sunnybrook Health Sciences CentreTorontoCanada
| | - Moritz UG Kraemer
- Department of Biology, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Evert-Jan Wils
- Department of Intensive Care, Franciscus Gasthuis & VlietlandRotterdamNetherlands
| | - Peter Horby
- ISARIC, Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Laura Merson
- ISARIC, Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
- Infectious Diseases Data Observatory, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
| | - Piero L Olliaro
- ISARIC, Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of OxfordOxfordUnited Kingdom
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Brent SE, Watts A, Cetron M, German M, Kraemer MUG, Bogoch II, Brady OJ, Hay SI, Creatore MI, Khan K. International travel between global urban centres vulnerable to yellow fever transmission. Bull World Health Organ 2018; 96:343-354B. [PMID: 29875519 PMCID: PMC5985425 DOI: 10.2471/blt.17.205658] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2017] [Revised: 02/27/2018] [Accepted: 03/06/2018] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To examine the potential for international travel to spread yellow fever virus to cities around the world. METHODS We obtained data on the international flight itineraries of travellers who departed yellow fever-endemic areas of the world in 2016 for cities either where yellow fever was endemic or which were suitable for viral transmission. Using a global ecological model of dengue virus transmission, we predicted the suitability of cities in non-endemic areas for yellow fever transmission. We obtained information on national entry requirements for yellow fever vaccination at travellers' destination cities. FINDINGS In 2016, 45.2 million international air travellers departed from yellow fever-endemic areas of the world. Of 11.7 million travellers with destinations in 472 cities where yellow fever was not endemic but which were suitable for virus transmission, 7.7 million (65.7%) were not required to provide proof of vaccination upon arrival. Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Peru and the United States of America had the highest volumes of travellers arriving from yellow fever-endemic areas and the largest populations living in cities suitable for yellow fever transmission. CONCLUSION Each year millions of travellers depart from yellow fever-endemic areas of the world for cities in non-endemic areas that appear suitable for viral transmission without having to provide proof of vaccination. Rapid global changes in human mobility and urbanization make it vital for countries to re-examine their vaccination policies and practices to prevent urban yellow fever epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shannon E Brent
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, 30 Bond Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5B 1W8, Canada
| | - Alexander Watts
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, 30 Bond Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5B 1W8, Canada
| | - Martin Cetron
- Division of Global Migration and Quarantine, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Atlanta, United States of America (USA)
| | - Matthew German
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, 30 Bond Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5B 1W8, Canada
| | - Moritz UG Kraemer
- Computational Epidemiology Laboratory, Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, USA
| | - Isaac I Bogoch
- Divisions of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada
| | - Oliver J Brady
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, England
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - Maria I Creatore
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Kamran Khan
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, 30 Bond Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5B 1W8, Canada
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Nsoesie EO, Kraemer MU, Golding N, Pigott DM, Brady OJ, Moyes CL, Johansson MA, Gething PW, Velayudhan R, Khan K, Hay SI, Brownstein JS. Global distribution and environmental suitability for chikungunya virus, 1952 to 2015. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2017; 21. [PMID: 27239817 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2016.21.20.30234] [Citation(s) in RCA: 109] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2015] [Accepted: 03/20/2016] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Abstract
Chikungunya fever is an acute febrile illness caused by the chikungunya virus (CHIKV), which is transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes. Although chikungunya fever is rarely fatal, patients can experience debilitating symptoms that last from months to years. Here we comprehensively assess the global distribution of chikungunya and produce high-resolution maps, using an established modelling framework that combines a comprehensive occurrence database with bespoke environmental correlates, including up-to-date Aedes distribution maps. This enables estimation of the current total population-at-risk of CHIKV transmission and identification of areas where the virus may spread to in the future. We identified 94 countries with good evidence for current CHIKV presence and a set of countries in the New and Old World with potential for future CHIKV establishment, demonstrated by high environmental suitability for transmission and in some cases previous sporadic reports. Aedes aegypti presence was identified as one of the major contributing factors to CHIKV transmission but significant geographical heterogeneity exists. We estimated 1.3 billion people are living in areas at-risk of CHIKV transmission. These maps provide a baseline for identifying areas where prevention and control efforts should be prioritised and can be used to guide estimation of the global burden of CHIKV.
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Affiliation(s)
- E O Nsoesie
- Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, United States.,Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, United States.,Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, United States
| | - M U Kraemer
- Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - N Golding
- Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.,Department of BioScience, University of Melbourne, Australia
| | - D M Pigott
- Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, United States.,Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - O J Brady
- Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - C L Moyes
- Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - M A Johansson
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico.,Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, United States
| | - P W Gething
- Malaria Atlas Project, Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
| | | | - K Khan
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, Division of Infectious Diseases, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada
| | - S I Hay
- Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, United States.,Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - J S Brownstein
- Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, United States.,Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, United States.,Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Canada
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5
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Kraemer MUG, Sinka ME, Duda KA, Mylne AQN, Shearer FM, Barker CM, Moore CG, Carvalho RG, Coelho GE, Van Bortel W, Hendrickx G, Schaffner F, Elyazar IRF, Teng HJ, Brady OJ, Messina JP, Pigott DM, Scott TW, Smith DL, Wint GRW, Golding N, Hay SI. The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. eLife 2015; 4:e08347. [PMID: 26126267 PMCID: PMC4493616 DOI: 10.7554/elife.08347] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1125] [Impact Index Per Article: 125.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2015] [Accepted: 06/18/2015] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Dengue and chikungunya are increasing global public health concerns due to their rapid geographical spread and increasing disease burden. Knowledge of the contemporary distribution of their shared vectors, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus remains incomplete and is complicated by an ongoing range expansion fuelled by increased global trade and travel. Mapping the global distribution of these vectors and the geographical determinants of their ranges is essential for public health planning. Here we compile the largest contemporary database for both species and pair it with relevant environmental variables predicting their global distribution. We show Aedes distributions to be the widest ever recorded; now extensive in all continents, including North America and Europe. These maps will help define the spatial limits of current autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya viruses. It is only with this kind of rigorous entomological baseline that we can hope to project future health impacts of these viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Moritz UG Kraemer
- Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Marianne E Sinka
- Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Kirsten A Duda
- Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Adrian QN Mylne
- Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Freya M Shearer
- Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Christopher M Barker
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, Davis, United States
| | - Chester G Moore
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, United States
| | | | | | - Wim Van Bortel
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | | | | | - Hwa-Jen Teng
- Center for Research, Diagnostics and Vaccine Development, Centers for Disease Control, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Oliver J Brady
- Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Jane P Messina
- Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - David M Pigott
- Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Thomas W Scott
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, Davis, United States
| | - David L Smith
- Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States
- Sanaria Institute for Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Rockville, United States
| | - GR William Wint
- Environmental Research Group Oxford, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Nick Golding
- Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Simon I Hay
- Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, United States
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6
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Affiliation(s)
- D M Pigott
- Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
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