El Niño Southern Oscillation, overseas arrivals and imported chikungunya cases in Australia: A time series analysis

Chikungunya: risks for travellers

RATIONALE FOR REVIEW

Chikungunya outbreaks continue to occur, with changing epidemiology. Awareness about chikungunya is low both among the at-risk travellers and healthcare professionals, which can result in underdiagnosis and underreporting. This review aims to improve awareness among healthcare professionals regarding the risks of chikungunya for travellers.

KEY FINDINGS

Chikungunya virus transmission to humans occurs mainly via daytime-active mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The areas where these mosquitoes live is continuously expanding, partly due to climate changes. Chikungunya is characterized by an acute onset of fever with joint pain. These symptoms generally resolve within 1-3 weeks, but at least one-third of the patients suffer from debilitating rheumatologic symptoms for months to years. Large outbreaks in changing regions of the world since the turn of the 21st century (e.g. Caribbean, La Réunion; currently Brazil, India) have resulted in growing numbers of travellers importing chikungunya, mainly to Europe and North America. Viremic travellers with chikungunya infection have seeded chikungunya clusters (France, United States of America) and outbreaks (Italy in 2007 and 2017) in non-endemic countries where Ae. albopictus mosquitoes are present. Community preventive measures are important to prevent disease transmission by mosquitoes. Individual preventive options are limited to personal protection measures against mosquito bites, particularly the daytime-active mosquitos that transmit the chikungunya virus. Candidate vaccines are on the horizon and regulatory authorities will need to assess environmental and host risk factors for persistent sequelae, such as obesity, age (over 40 years) and history of arthritis or inflammatory rheumatologic disease to determine which populations should be targeted for these chikungunya vaccines.

CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS

Travellers planning to visit destinations with active CHIKV circulation should be advised about the risk for chikungunya, prevention strategies, the disease manifestations, possible chronic rheumatologic sequelae and, if symptomatic, seek medical evaluation and report potential exposures.

Seroprevalence of chikungunya virus among military personnel in Papua New Guinea, 2019

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The seroprevalence of chikungunya virus was investigated among military personnel in Papua New Guinea.

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The seroprevalence of anti-chikungunya virus immunoglobulin G antibodies on enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was 47%.

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The seroprevalence of anti-chikungunya virus neutralizing antibodies was 35%.

Objectives

The first outbreak of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) was reported in West Sepik, Papua New Guinea (PNG) in June 2012, and spread rapidly throughout PNG. CHIKV imported from PNG to Queensland has been reported occasionally, but transmission of CHIKV in PNG remains unclear due to the lack of testing capability. This study investigated the degree of CHIKV exposure among PNG military personnel (PNGMP) in 2019, 7 years after its first emergence.

Methods

Sera of 204 PNGMP recruited in April 2019 was tested for the presence of anti-CHIKV immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies using a commercially available IgG detection kit, and anti-CHIKV neutralizing antibodies against a CHIKV Reunion strain using a neutralizing assay.

Results

Anti-CHIKV seropositivity of the sera was 47% and 35%, respectively, using the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and neutralizing assay. Five percent (n=11) of samples were found to be IgG negative or borderline, but neutralizing antibody positive.

Conclusions

The prevalence of anti-CHIKV neutralizing antibody of 35% suggests that CHIKV infection has become endemic among PNGMP. Current commercially available CHIKV ELISA detection kits may not be suitable for diagnostic purposes in multiple alphavirus endemic areas such as PNG, due to serological cross-reactivity among alphaviruses. Re-emergence of CHIKV in PNGMP is possible.

Past and future epidemic potential of chikungunya virus in Australia

Background

Australia is theoretically at risk of epidemic chikungunya virus (CHIKV) activity as the principal vectors are present on the mainland Aedes aegypti) and some islands of the Torres Strait (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus). Both vectors are highly invasive and adapted to urban environments with a capacity to expand their distributions into south-east Queensland and other states in Australia. We sought to estimate the epidemic potential of CHIKV, which is not currently endemic in Australia, by considering exclusively transmission by the established vector in Australia, Ae. aegypti, due to the historical relevance and anthropophilic nature of the vector.

Methodology/Principal findings

We estimated the historical (1995–2019) epidemic potential of CHIKV in eleven Australian locations, including the Torres Strait, using a basic reproduction number equation. We found that the main urban centres of Northern Australia could sustain an epidemic of CHIKV. We then estimated future trends in epidemic potential for the main centres for the years 2020 to 2029. We also conducted uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the variables comprising the basic reproduction number and found high sensitivity to mosquito population size, human population size, impact of vector control and human infectious period.

Conclusions/Significance

By estimating the epidemic potential for CHIKV transmission on mainland Australia and the Torres Strait, we identified key areas of focus for controlling vector populations and reducing human exposure. As the epidemic potential of the virus is estimated to rise towards 2029, a greater focus on control and prevention measures should be implemented in at-risk locations.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes and causes a potentially debilitating febrile and arthralgic disease. The virus is a threat to public health in regions where the primary vectors are established, as evidenced by past epidemics in the Indian Ocean Islands, South America and the Caribbean. In Australia, there are established populations of Ae. aegypti both on the mainland and in the Torres Strait, and of Ae. albopictus in the Torres Strait. This provides a theoretical potential for CHIKV transmission, as seen historically with dengue virus (DENV). It is therefore important to understand the epidemic potential of CHIKV in Australia. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R₀) of CHIKV during the years 1995–2019 for 11 Urban Centres and Localities (UCLs) in Australia, and found that Brisbane, Cairns, Darwin, Rockhampton, Thursday Island, and Townsville were all susceptible to CHIKV epidemics. We then forecasted epidemic potential from 2020–2029 and found an increase in R₀ across the six main UCLs. By highlighting factors that significantly influence the epidemic potential of CHIKV in Australia, our study supports evidence-based decision making for vector control and public health programs.

Impact of Meteorological Factors and Southern Oscillation Index on Scrub Typhus Incidence in Guangzhou, Southern China, 2006-2018

Background: Scrub typhus was epidemic in the western Pacific Ocean area and East Asia, scrub typhus epidemic in densely populated areas in southern China. To better understand the association between meteorological variables, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and scrub typhus incidence in Guangzhou was benefit to the control and prevention.

Methodology/Principal Findings: We collected weekly data for scrub typhus cases and meteorological variables in Guangzhou, and Southern Oscillation Index from 2006 to 2018, and used the distributed lag non-linear models to evaluate the relationships between meteorological variables, SOI and scrub typhus. The median value of each variable was set as the reference. The high-risk occupations were farmer (51.10%), house worker (17.51%), and retiree (6.29%). The non-linear relationships were observed with different lag weeks. For example, when the mean temperature was 27.7°C with1-week lag, the relative risk (RR) was highest as 1.08 (95% CI: 1.01–1.17). The risk was the highest when the relative humidity was 92.0% with 9-week lag, with the RR of 1.10 (95% CI: 1.02–1.19). For aggregate rainfall, the highest RR was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03–1.11), when it was 83.0 mm with 4-week lag. When the SOI was 19 with 11-week lag, the highest RR was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01–1.12). Most of the extreme effects of SOI and meteorological factors on scrub typical cases were statistically significant.

Conclusion/Significance: The high-risk occupations of scrub typhus in Guangzhou were farmer, house worker, and retiree. Meteorological factors and SOI played an important role in scrub typhus occurrence in Guangzhou. Non-linear relationships were observed in almost all the variables in our study. Approximately, mean temperature, and relative humidity positively correlated to the incidence of scrub typhus, on the contrary to atmospheric pressure and weekly temperature range (WTR). Aggregate rainfall and wind velocity showed an inverse-U curve, whereas the SOI appeared the bimodal distribution. These findings can be helpful to facilitate the development of the early warning system to prevent the scrub typhus.

Association between socio-environmental factors, coverage by family health teams, and rainfall in the spatial distribution of Zika virus infection in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2015 and 2016

BACKGROUND

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection caused outbreak in Brazil, in 2015 and 2016. Disorganized urban growth, facilitates the concentration of numerous susceptible and infected individuals. It is useful to understand the mechanisms that can favor the increase in ZIKV incidence, such as areas with wide socioeconomic and environmental diversity. Therefore, the study analyzed the spatial distribution of ZIKV in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2015 and 2016, and associations between the incidence per 1000 inhabitants and socio-environmental factors.

METHODS

The census tracts were used as the analytical units reported ZIKV cases among the city's inhabitants. Local Empirical Bayesian method was used to control the incidence rates' instability effect. The spatial autocorrelation was verified with Moran's Index and local indicators of spatial association (LISA). Spearman correlation matrix was used to indicate possible collinearity. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Spatial Lag Model (SAR), and Spatial Error Model (CAR) were used to analyze the relationship between ZIKV and socio-environmental factors.

RESULTS

The SAR model exhibited the best parameters: R2 = 0.44, Log-likelihood = - 7482, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) = 14,980. In this model, mean income between 1 and 2 minimum wages was possible risk factors for Zika occurrence in the localities. Household conditions related to adequate water supply and the existence of public sewage disposal were associated with lower ZIKV cumulative incidence, suggesting possible protective factors against the occurrence of ZIKV in the localities. The presence of the Family Health Strategy in the census tracts was positively associated with the ZIKV cumulative incidence. However, the results show that mean income less than 1 minimum wage were negatively associated with higher ZIKV cumulative incidence.

CONCLUSION

The results demonstrate the importance of socio-environmental variables in the dynamics of ZIKV transmission and the relevance for the development of control strategies.

Air Passenger Travel and International Surveillance Data Predict Spatiotemporal Variation in Measles Importations to the United States

Measles incidence in the United States has grown dramatically, as vaccination rates are declining and transmission internationally is on the rise. Because imported cases are necessary drivers of outbreaks in non-endemic settings, predicting measles outbreaks in the US depends on predicting imported cases. To assess the predictability of imported measles cases, we performed a regression of imported measles cases in the US against an inflow variable that combines air travel data with international measles surveillance data. To understand the contribution of each data type to these predictions, we repeated the regression analysis with alternative versions of the inflow variable that replaced each data type with averaged values and with versions of the inflow variable that used modeled inputs. We assessed the performance of these regression models using correlation, coverage probability, and area under the curve statistics, including with resampling and cross-validation. Our regression model had good predictive ability with respect to the presence or absence of imported cases in a given state in a given year (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.78) and the magnitude of imported cases (Pearson correlation = 0.84). By comparing alternative versions of the inflow variable averaging over different inputs, we found that both air travel data and international surveillance data contribute to the model's ability to predict numbers of imported cases and individually contribute to its ability to predict the presence or absence of imported cases. Predicted sources of imported measles cases varied considerably across years and US states, depending on which countries had high measles activity in a given year. Our results emphasize the importance of the relationship between global connectedness and the spread of measles. This study provides a framework for predicting and understanding imported case dynamics that could inform future studies and outbreak prevention efforts.

Temperature modulates immune gene expression in mosquitoes during arbovirus infection

The principal vector of dengue, Zika and chikungunya viruses is the mosquito Aedes aegypti, with its ability to transmit pathogens influenced by ambient temperature. We use chikungunya virus (CHIKV) to understand how the mosquito transcriptome responds to arbovirus infection at different ambient temperatures. We exposed CHIKV-infected mosquitoes to 18, 28 and 32°C, and found that higher temperature correlated with higher virus levels, particularly at 3 days post infection, but lower temperature resulted in reduced virus levels. RNAseq analysis indicated significantly altered gene expression levels in CHIKV infection. The highest number of significantly differentially expressed genes was observed at 28°C, with a more muted effect at the other temperatures. At the higher temperature, the expression of many classical immune genes, including Dicer-2, was not substantially altered in response to CHIKV. The upregulation of Toll, IMD and JAK-STAT pathways was only observed at 28°C. Functional annotations suggested that genes in immune response and metabolic pathways related to energy supply and DNA replication were involved in temperature-dependent changes. Time post infection also led to substantially different gene expression profiles, and this varied with temperature. In conclusion, temperature significantly modulates mosquito gene expression in response to infection, potentially leading to impairment of immune defences at higher temperatures.

Impact of the Southern Oscillation Index, Temperature, and Precipitation on Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus Activity in Florida

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV), an Alphavirus from family Togaviridae, is a highly pathogenic arbovirus affecting the eastern United States, especially Florida. Effects of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), precipitation, and cooling degree days on EEEV horse case data in Florida from 2004 to 2018 were modeled using distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs). The analysis was conducted at statewide and regional scales. DLNMs were used to model potential delayed effects of the covariates on monthly counts of horse cases. Both models confirmed a seasonal trend in EEEV transmission and found that precipitation, cooling degree days, and the SOI were all predictors of monthly numbers of horse cases. EEEV activity in horses was associated with higher amounts of rainfall during the month of transmission at the statewide scale, as well as the prior 3 mo at the regional scale, fewer cooling degree days during the month of transmission and the preceding 3 mo and high SOI values during the month and the previous 2 mo, and SOI values in the prior 2 to 8 mo. Horse cases were lower during El Niño winters but higher during the following summer, while La Niña winters were associated with higher numbers of cases and fewer during the following summer. At the regional scale, extremely low levels of precipitation were associated with a suppression of EEEV cases for 3 mo. Given the periodicity and potential predictability of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles, precipitation, and temperature, these results may provide a method for predicting EEEV risk potential in Florida.

Effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Dipole Mode Index on Chikungunya Infection in Indonesia

The aim of this study was to assess the possible association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) on chikungunya incidence overtime, including the significant reduction in cases that was observed in 2017 in Indonesia. Monthly nation-wide chikungunya case reports were obtained from the Indonesian National Disease Surveillance database, and incidence rates (IR) and case fatality rate (CFR) were calculated. Monthly data of Niño3.4 (indicator used to represent the ENSO) and DMI between 2011 and 2017 were also collected. Correlations between monthly IR and CFR and Niño3.4 and DMI were assessed using Spearman's rank correlation. We found that chikungunya case reports declined from 1972 cases in 2016 to 126 cases in 2017, a 92.6% reduction; the IR reduced from 0.67 to 0.05 cases per 100,000 population. No deaths associated with chikungunya have been recorded since its re-emergence in Indonesia in 2001. There was no significant correlation between monthly Niño3.4 and chikungunya incidence with r = -0.142 (95%CI: -0.320-0.046), p = 0.198. However, there was a significant negative correlation between monthly DMI and chikungunya incidence, r = -0.404 (95%CI: -0.229--0.554) with p < 0.001. In conclusion, our initial data suggests that the climate variable, DMI but not Niño3.4, is likely associated with changes in chikungunya incidence. Therefore, further analysis with a higher resolution of data, using the cross-wavelet coherence approach, may provide more robust evidence.

Chikungunya Virus Transmission at Low Temperature by Aedes albopictus Mosquitoes

Aedes albopictus is an important vector of chikungunya virus (CHIKV). In Australia, Ae. albopictus is currently only known to be present on the islands of the Torres Strait but, should it invade the mainland, it is projected to spread to temperate regions. The ability of Australian Ae. albopictus to transmit CHIKV at the lower temperatures typical of temperate areas has not been assessed. Ae. albopictus mosquitoes were orally challenged with a CHIKV strain from either Asian or East/Central/South African (ECSA) genotypes (10⁷ pfu/mL), and maintained at a constant temperature of either 18 °C or 28 °C. At 3- and 7-days post-infection (dpi), CHIKV RNA copies were quantified in mosquito bodies, and wings and legs using real time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR), while the detection of virus in saliva (a proxy for transmission) was performed by amplification in cell culture followed by observation of cytopathic effect in Vero cells. Of the ≥95% of Ae. albopictus that survived to 7 dpi, all mosquitoes became infected and showed body dissemination of CHIKV at both temperatures and time points. Both the Asian and ECSA CHIKV genotypes were potentially transmissible by Australian Ae. albopictus at 28 °C within 3 days of oral challenge. In contrast, at 18 °C none of the mosquitoes showed evidence of ability to transmit either genotype of CHIKV at 3 dpi. Further, at 18 °C only Ae. albopictus infected with the ECSA genotype showed evidence of virus in saliva at 7 dpi. Overall, infection with the ECSA CHIKV genotype produced higher virus loads in mosquitoes compared to infection with the Asian CHIKV genotype. Our results suggest that lower ambient temperatures may impede transmission of some CHIKV strains by Ae. albopictus at early time points post infection.