Sampling strategies for monitoring and evaluation of morbidity targets for soil-transmitted helminths

Implications for selecting persistent hot spots of schistosomiasis from community- and school-based surveys in Blue Nile, North Kordofan, and Sennar States, Sudan

In several schistosomiasis-endemic countries, the prevalence has remained high in some areas owing to reinfection despite repeated mass drug administration (MDA) interventions; these areas are referred to as persistent hot spots. Identifying hotspots is critical for interrupting transmission. This study aimed to determine an effective means of identifying persistent hot spots. First, we investigated the differences between Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma mansoni prevalence among school-aged children (SAC) estimated by a community-based survey, for which local key informants purposively selected communities, and a randomly sampled school-based survey. A total of 6,225 individuals residing in 60 villages in 8 districts of North Kordofan, Blue Nile, or Sennar States, Sudan participated in a community-based survey in March 2018. Additionally, the data of 3,959 students attending 71 schools in the same 8 districts were extracted from a nationwide school-based survey conducted in January 2017. The community-based survey identified 3 districts wherein the prevalence of S. haematobium or S. mansoni infection among SAC was significantly higher than that determined by the randomly sampled school survey (e.g., S. haematobium in the Sennar district: 10.8% vs. 1.1%, P<0.001). At the state level, the prevalence of schistosomiasis among SAC, as determined by the community-based survey, was consistently significantly higher than that determined by the school-based survey. Purposeful selection of villages or schools based on a history of MDA, latrine coverage, open defecation, and the prevalence of bloody urine improved the ability for identifying persistent hot spots.

The efficacy of sampling strategies for estimating scabies prevalence

Background

Estimating community level scabies prevalence is crucial for targeting interventions to areas of greatest need. The World Health Organisation recommends sampling at the unit of households or schools, but there is presently no standardised approach to scabies prevalence assessment. Consequently, a wide range of sampling sizes and methods have been used. As both prevalence and drivers of transmission vary across populations, there is a need to understand how sampling strategies for estimating scabies prevalence interact with local epidemiology to affect the accuracy of prevalence estimates.

Methods

We used a simulation-based approach to compare the efficacy of different scabies sampling strategies. First, we generated synthetic populations broadly representative of remote Australian Indigenous communities and assigned a scabies status to individuals to achieve a specified prevalence using different assumptions about scabies epidemiology. Second, we calculated an observed prevalence for different sampling methods and sizes.

Results

The distribution of prevalence in subpopulation groups can vary substantially when the underlying scabies assignment method changes. Across all of the scabies assignment methods combined, the simple random sampling method produces the narrowest 95% confidence interval for all sample sizes. The household sampling method introduces higher variance compared to simple random sampling when the assignment of scabies includes a household-specific component. The school sampling method overestimates community prevalence when the assignment of scabies includes an age-specific component.

Discussion

Our results indicate that there are interactions between transmission assumptions and surveillance strategies, emphasizing the need for understanding scabies transmission dynamics. We suggest using the simple random sampling method for estimating scabies prevalence. Our approach can be adapted to various populations and diseases.

Scabies is a parasitic infestation that is commonly observed in disadvantaged populations. A wide range of sampling sizes and methods have been used to estimate scabies prevalence. With differing key drivers of transmission and varying prevalence across populations, it can be challenging to determine an effective sampling strategy. In this study, we propose a simulation approach to compare the efficacy of different sampling methods and sizes. First, we generate synthetic populations and then assign a scabies status to individuals to achieve a specified prevalence using different assumptions about scabies epidemiology. Second, we calculate an observed prevalence for different sampling methods and sizes. Our results indicate that there are interactions between transmission assumptions and surveillance strategies. We suggest using the simple random sampling method for estimating prevalence as it produces the narrowest 95% confidence interval for all sampling sizes. We propose guidelines for determining a sample size to achieve a desired level of precision in 95 out 100 samples, given estimates of the population size and a priori estimates of true prevalence. Our approach can be adapted to various populations, informing an appropriate sampling strategy for estimating scabies prevalence with confidence.

Two-stage lot quality assurance sampling framework for monitoring and evaluation of neglected tropical diseases, allowing for imperfect diagnostics and spatial heterogeneity

Background

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) is a key component of large-scale neglected tropical diseases (NTD) control programs. Diagnostic tests deployed in these M&E surveys are often imperfect, and it remains unclear how this affects the population-based program decision-making.

Methodology

We developed a 2-stage lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) framework for decision-making that allows for both imperfect diagnostics and spatial heterogeneity of infections. We applied the framework to M&E of soil-transmitted helminth control programs as a case study. For this, we explored the impact of the diagnostic performance (sensitivity and specificity), spatial heterogeneity (intra-cluster correlation), and survey design on program decision-making around the prevalence decisions thresholds recommended by WHO (2%, 10%, 20% and 50%) and the associated total survey costs.

Principal findings

The survey design currently recommended by WHO (5 clusters and 50 subjects per cluster) may lead to incorrect program decisions around the 2% and 10% prevalence thresholds, even when perfect diagnostic tests are deployed. To reduce the risk of incorrect decisions around the 2% prevalence threshold, including more clusters (≥10) and deploying highly specific diagnostic methods (≥98%) are the most-cost saving strategies when spatial heterogeneity is moderate-to-high (intra-cluster correlation >0.017). The higher cost and lower throughput of improved diagnostic tests are compensated by lower required sample sizes, though only when the cost per test is <6.50 US$ and sample throughput is ≥3 per hour.

Conclusion/Significance

Our framework provides a means to assess and update M&E guidelines and guide product development choices for NTD. Using soil-transmitted helminths as a case study, we show that current M&E guidelines may severely fall short, particularly in low-endemic and post-control settings. Furthermore, specificity rather than sensitivity is a critical parameter to consider. When the geographical distribution of an NTD within a district is highly heterogeneous, sampling more clusters (≥10) may be required.

Factors associated with soil-transmitted helminths infection in Benin: Findings from the DeWorm3 study

Background

Despite several years of school-based MDA implementation, STH infections remain an important public health problem in Benin, with a country-wide prevalence of 20% in 2015. The DeWorm3 study is designed to assess the feasibility of using community-based MDA with albendazole to interrupt the transmission of STH, through a series of cluster-randomized trials in Benin, India and Malawi. We used the pre-treatment baseline survey data to describe and analyze the factors associated with STH infection in Comé, the study site of the DeWorm3 project in Benin. These data will improve understanding of the challenges that need to be addressed in order to eliminate STH as a public health problem in Benin.

Methods

Between March and April 2018, the prevalence of STH (hookworm spp., Ascaris and Trichuris trichiura) was assessed by Kato-Katz in stool samples collected from 6,153 residents in the community of Comé, Benin using a stratified random sampling procedure. A standardized survey questionnaire was used to collect information from individual households concerning factors potentially associated with the presence and intensity of STH infections in pre-school (PSAC, aged 1–4), school-aged children (SAC, aged 5–14) and adults (aged 15 and above). Multilevel mixed-effects models were used to assess associations between these factors and STH infection.

Results

The overall prevalence of STH infection was 5.3%; 3.2% hookworm spp., 2.1% Ascaris lumbricoides and 0.1% Trichuris. Hookworm spp. were more prevalent in adults than in SAC (4.4% versus 2.0%, respectively; p = 0.0001) and PSAC (4.4% versus 1.0%, respectively; p<0.0001), whilst Ascaris lumbricoides was more prevalent in SAC than in adults (3.0% versus 1.7%, respectively; p = 0.004). Being PSAC (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) = 0.2, p< 0.001; adjusted Infection Intensity Ratio (aIIR) = 0.1, p<0.001) or SAC (aOR = 0.5, p = 0.008; aIIR = 0.3, p = 0.01), being a female (aOR = 0.6, p = 0.004; aIIR = 0.3, p = 0.001), and having received deworming treatment the previous year (aOR = 0.4, p< 0.002; aIIR = 0.2, p<0.001) were associated with a lower prevalence and intensity of hookworm infection. Lower income (lowest quintile: aOR = 5.0, p<0.001, 2^nd quintile aOR = 3.6, p = 0.001 and 3^rd quintile aOR = 2.5, p = 0.02), being a farmer (aOR = 1.8, p = 0.02), medium population density (aOR = 2.6, p = 0.01), and open defecation (aOR = 0.5, p = 0.04) were associated with a higher prevalence of hookworm infection. Lower education—no education, primary or secondary school- (aIIR = 40.1, p = 0.01; aIIR = 30.9, p = 0.02; aIIR = 19.3, p = 0.04, respectively), farming (aIIR = 3.9, p = 0.002), natural flooring (aIIR = 0.2, p = 0.06), peri-urban settings (aIIR = 6.2, 95%CI 1.82–20.90, p = 0.003), and unimproved water source more than 30 minutes from the household (aIIR = 13.5, p = 0.02) were associated with a higher intensity of hookworm infection. Improved and unshared toilet was associated with lower intensity of hookworm infections (aIIR = 0.2, p = 0.01). SAC had a higher odds of Ascaris lumbricoides infection than adults (aOR = 2.0, p = 0.01) and females had a lower odds of infection (aOR = 0.5, p = 0.02).

Conclusion

Hookworm spp. are the most prevalent STH in Comé, with a persistent reservoir in adults that is not addressed by current control measures based on school MDA. Expanding MDA to target adults and PSAC is necessary to substantially impact population prevalence, particularly for hookworm.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03014167.

Despite several years of deworming campaigns targeting school-aged children, soil-transmitted helminths (STH) remains a public health problem in most developing countries, including Benin. The burden is mostly on children and pregnant women, but also on the whole society. Soil-transmitted helminths are responsible for malnutrition, anemia, low birth weight, cognitive impairment, decrease of school performance, and subsequently economic loss. The current strategy of the Benin National Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTD) Program is to achieve STH control through mass drug administration campaigns targeting school-aged children (SAC). The baseline data of Deworm3 study, implemented in Comé, southern Benin, as part of a multicountry (Benin, Malawi and India) STH elimination trial, shows that previous school deworming campaigns decreased STH prevalence; however there is a persistent reservoir of STH infection in adults and pre-school aged children that should be targeted for a better impact. In order to eliminate STH as a public health problem, Benin National NTD Program would need to increase its target population, from the SAC to the whole community. The future results of Deworm3 trial would demonstrate whether the STH elimination goal STH using community wide mass drug administration would be achievable.

Impact of Key Assumptions About the Population Biology of Soil-Transmitted Helminths on the Sustainable Control of Morbidity

The design and evaluation of control programs for soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) is based on surveillance data recording measurements of egg counts in the stool of infected individuals, which underpin estimates of the prevalence and average intensity of infection. There is considerable uncertainty around these measurements and their interpretation. The uncertainty is composed of several sources of measurement error and the limit of detection of fecal smear tests on the one hand, and key assumptions on STH biology on the other hand, including assumptions on the aggregation of worms within hosts and on the impact of density-dependent influences on worm reproduction. Using 2 independently developed models of STH transmission we show how different aspects of STH biology and human behavior impact on STH surveillance and control programs and how accounting for uncertainty can help to develop optimal and sustainable control strategies to meet the World Health Organization (WHO) morbidity target for STHs.

Strengthening data collection for neglected tropical diseases: What data are needed for models to better inform tailored intervention programmes?

Locally tailored interventions for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are becoming increasingly important for ensuring that the World Health Organization (WHO) goals for control and elimination are reached. Mathematical models, such as those developed by the NTD Modelling Consortium, are able to offer recommendations on interventions but remain constrained by the data currently available. Data collection for NTDs needs to be strengthened as better data are required to indirectly inform transmission in an area. Addressing specific data needs will improve our modelling recommendations, enabling more accurate tailoring of interventions and assessment of their progress. In this collection, we discuss the data needs for several NTDs, specifically gambiense human African trypanosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths (STH), trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis. Similarities in the data needs for these NTDs highlight the potential for integration across these diseases and where possible, a wider spectrum of diseases.

Modeling the Interruption of the Transmission of Soil-Transmitted Helminths Infections in Kenya: Modeling Deworming, Water, and Sanitation Impacts

Kenya, just like other countries with endemic soil-transmitted helminths (STH), has conducted regular mass drug administration (MDA) program for the last 5 years among school aged children as a way to reduce STH infections burden in the country. However, the point of interruption of transmission of these infections still remains unclear. In this study, we developed and analyzed an age structured mathematical model to predict the elimination period (i.e., time taken to interrupt STH transmission) of these infections in Kenya. The study utilized a deterministic age structured model of the STH population dynamics under a regular treatment program. The model was applied to three main age groups: pre-school age children (2-4 years), school age children (5-14 years), and adult populations (≥15 years) and compared the impact of two interventions on worm burden and elimination period. The model-simulated results were compared with the 5 year field data from the Kenyan deworming program for all the three types of STH (Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, and hookworm). The model demonstrated that the reduction of worm burden and elimination period depended heavily on four parameter groups; drug efficacy, number of treatment rounds, MDA and water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) coverage. The analysis showed that for STH infections to be eliminated using MDA alone in a short time period, 3-monthly MDA plan is desired. However, complementation of MDA with WASH at an optimal (95%) coverage level was most effective. These results are important to the Kenyan STH control program as it will guide the recently launched Breaking Transmission Strategy.

Impact of Different Sampling Schemes for Decision Making in Soil-Transmitted Helminthiasis Control Programs

Starting and stopping preventive chemotherapy (PC) for soil-transmitted helminthiasis is typically based on the prevalence of infection as measured by Kato-Katz (KK) fecal smears. Kato-Katz-based egg counts can vary highly over repeated stool samples and smears. Consequentially, the sensitivity of KK-based surveys depends on the number of stool samples per person and the number of smears per sample. Given finite resources, collecting multiple samples and/or smears means screening fewer individuals, thereby lowering the statistical precision of prevalence estimates. Using population-level data from various epidemiological settings, we assessed the performance of different sampling schemes executed within the confines of the same budget. We recommend the use of single-slide KK for determining prevalence of moderate-to-heavy intensity infection and policy decisions for starting and continuing PC; more sensitive sampling schemes may be required for policy decisions involving stopping PC. Our findings highlight that guidelines should include specific guidance on sampling schemes.

How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases

The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.

How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases

The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.

A holistic approach is needed to control the perpetual burden of soil-transmitted helminth infections among indigenous schoolchildren in Malaysia

A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 1,142 Orang Ali schoolchildren in six states of Peninsular Malaysia to investigate the current prevalence and risk factors of STH infections. Faecal samples were examined using direct smear, formalin-ether sedimentation, Kato-Katz, and Harada-Mori methods. A pre-tested questionnaire was used to collect information on the demographic, socioeconomic, personal hygiene, and health status of the participants. Overall, 70.1% (95% CI = 67.4, 72.7) of the participants were infected with at least one of the STH species. The prevalence of Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, and hookworm infections was 63.1%, 61.8% and 11.5%, respectively. Moderate-to-heavy STH infections accounted for 61.3% of the total infections. Univariate and logistic regression analyses revealed different sets of risk factors, with age (> 10 years) being the significant risk factor of all three STH species. Moreover, other species-specific risk factors were identified including being a member of the Senoi tribe, family size (≥ 7 members), school size (150-250 pupils), maternal unemployment, unimproved source of drinking water, lacking improved toilet in the house, inadequate WASH facilities at school, not washing hands before eating, and not washing fruits before eating; presence of domestic animals, and not wearing shoes when outside. The high prevalence of STH infections found in the study population exceeds the WHO policy intervention threshold (20% prevalence). Thus, an innovative holistic approach should be adopted to control STH infections among these children as part of the efforts to improve the quality of life of the entire Orang Asli population. .

Insights from quantitative analysis and mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goals for soil-transmitted helminths

Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are a group of parasitic worms that infect humans, causing a wide spectrum of disease, notably anaemia, growth retardation, and delayed cognitive development. The three main STHs are Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm ( Necator americanus and Ancylostoma duodenale). Approximately 1.5 billion people are infected with STHs worldwide. The World Health Organization goal for 2030 is morbidity control, defined as reaching <2% prevalence of medium-to-high intensity infections in preschool-age children and school-age children (SAC). Treatment guidelines for achieving this goal have been recommended. The Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium has developed mathematical and statistical models to quantify, predict, and evaluate the impact of control measures on STHs. These models show that the morbidity target can be achieved following current guidelines in moderate prevalence settings (20-50% in SAC). In high prevalence settings, semi-annual preventive chemotherapy (PC) ideally including adults, or at least women of reproductive age, is required. For T. trichiura, dual therapy with albendazole and ivermectin is required. In general, stopping PC is not possible without infection resurgence, unless effective measures for improved access to water, hygiene, and sanitation have been implemented, or elimination of transmission has been achieved. Current diagnostic methods are based on egg counts in stool samples, but these are known to have poor sensitivity at low prevalence levels. A target threshold for novel, more sensitive diagnostics should be defined relative to currently preferred diagnostics (Kato-Katz). Our analyses identify the extent of systematic non-access to treatment and the individual patterns of compliance over multiple rounds of treatment as the biggest unknowns and the main impediment to reaching the target. Moreover, the link between morbidity and infection intensity has not been fully elucidated. By providing more insights on all the above, we aim to inform discussions on the goals and treatment guidelines for STHs.

Insights from quantitative analysis and mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goals for soil-transmitted helminths

Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are a group of parasitic worms that infect humans, causing a wide spectrum of disease, notably anaemia, growth retardation, and delayed cognitive development. The three main STHs are Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm (Necator americanus and Ancylostoma duodenale). Approximately 1.5 billion people are infected with STHs worldwide. The World Health Organization goal for 2030 is morbidity control, defined as reaching <2% prevalence of medium-to-high intensity infections in preschool-age children and school-age children (SAC). Treatment guidelines for achieving this goal have been recommended. The Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium has developed mathematical and statistical models to quantify, predict, and evaluate the impact of control measures on STHs. These models show that the morbidity target can be achieved following current guidelines in moderate prevalence settings (20-50% in SAC). In high prevalence settings, semi-annual preventive chemotherapy (PC) ideally including adults, or at least women of reproductive age, is required. For T. trichiura, dual therapy with albendazole and ivermectin is required. In general, stopping PC is not possible without infection resurgence, unless effective measures for improved access to water, hygiene, and sanitation have been implemented, or elimination of transmission has been achieved. Current diagnostic methods are based on egg counts in stool samples, but these are known to have poor sensitivity at low prevalence levels. A target threshold for novel, more sensitive diagnostics should be defined relative to currently preferred diagnostics (Kato-Katz). Our analyses identify the extent of systematic non-access to treatment and the individual patterns of compliance over multiple rounds of treatment as the biggest unknowns and the main impediment to reaching the target. Moreover, the link between morbidity and infection intensity has not been fully elucidated. By providing more insights on all the above, we aim to inform discussions on the goals and treatment guidelines for STHs.