Risk factors for the progression of trachomatous scarring in a cohort of women in a trachoma low endemic district in Tanzania

Severity of Trachomatous Scarring among Adults in Trachoma-Endemic Amhara Region of Ethiopia

Trachomatous scarring has been shown to progress regardless of active ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection, indicating that scarring drivers may be unrelated to ongoing transmission. Although scarring prevalence is commonly associated with older age and female sex, less is known about other potential contributors to its development. This study identified and assessed risk factors associated with scarring magnitude in a trachoma-endemic setting, utilizing a five-point photographic scale (S0-S4). During 2017 trachoma surveys of Amhara, Ethiopia, photographers captured left and right conjunctival images of adults (ages 15 years and older) from 10 districts. Subsequently, two graders independently assessed photographs for scarring, with discrepancies adjudicated by an expert grader. Scarring scores for 729 individuals were aggregated from the eye level to the participant level, excluding 17 participants because of poor photograph quality. Among those with scarring, most cases (20.4%) were severe (S4, comprising more than 90% of the tarsal conjunctiva) compared with the prevalence of moderate S3-A/B (11.2%), S2 (8.3%), and mild S1 (19.2%). The youngest group (ages 15-19 years) exhibited all scarring stages. Older participants (60 years and older) experienced a greater burden of severe scarring (S4 prevalence: 32.6%) than their younger (15-19 years) counterparts (6.2%). Multivariate ordinal logistic regression models indicated female sex, increasing age, and district-level trachomatous follicular-inflammation prevalence were significant predictors of scarring severity. Trachomatous scarring and its progression to trichiasis, may prove a barrier to meeting WHO timelines for trachoma elimination and will necessitate ongoing surveillance and interventions after elimination thresholds have been met.

Model of yearly transition to severe trachomatous scarring and trichiasis in a cohort of women in Kongwa Tanzania

One criterion for validation of trachoma elimination is the management of Trachomatous Trichiasis (TT) after Trachoma inflammation-follicular (TF) is eliminated in children ages 1-9 years at district level. No data exist on how long countries must have dedicated TT programs, as the timeline for progression to TT from trachomatous scarring is unknown. We used eight years of longitudinal data in women in Kongwa Tanzania to model progression from no scarring (S0) through grades of scarring severity (S1-S4) to TT. Markov models were used, with age, community prevalence of TF (CPTF), and household characteristics as co-variates. Adjusted for covariates, the incidence of S1 was estimated at 4∙7% per year, and the risk increased by 26% if the CPTF was between 5-10% and by 48% if greater than 10%. The transition from S4 to TT was estimated at 2∙6% per year. Districts, even after elimination of TF, may have some communities with TF ≥ 5% and increased risk of incident scarring. Once scarring progresses to S2, further progression is not dependent on CPTF. These data suggest that, depending on the district level of scarring and degree of heterogeneity in CPTF at the time of elimination, incident TT will still be an issue for decades.

Gender differences in trachomatous scarring prevalence in a formerly trachoma hyperendemic district in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Trachoma is a chronic conjunctivitis caused by the bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis. Repeated infections lead to trachomatous conjunctival scarring which can progress to potentially blinding trachomatous trichiasis (TT). In trachoma hyperendemic conditions, women compared to men have an increased risk of scarring and TT, which can progress to blinding corneal opacification. This study determined if there were gender differences in scarring prevalence and severity when trachoma prevalence approaches elimination, in a formerly trachoma hyperendemic region.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A cross-sectional prevalence study was conducted amongst adults age 15 years and older in Kongwa district, Tanzania in 2019. 3168 persons over age 15 years agreed to be examined and had at least one eye with a gradable image. Ocular photographs were graded for scarring according to a published four-step severity scale. Overall, about half of all study participants had scarring. However, more females (52.3%) had any scarring compared to males (47.2%), OR = 1.22 (95% CI = 1.05-1.43). For every year increase in age, there was a 6.5% increase in the odds of having more severe scarring (95% CI: 5.8%, 7.2%). Women were more likely than men to have severe scarring, OR 2.36 (95% CI: 1.84-3.02). Residence in a community with TF≥10% was associated with a 1.6-fold increased odds of any scarring.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Overall scarring prevalence and more severe scarring prevalence was higher in females compared to males, even adjusting for age and community TF prevalence. The data suggest that processes occur that lead to women preferentially progressing towards more severe scarring compared to men.

Expanding a photographic grading system for trachomatous scarring

BACKGROUND

The purpose was to assess an expansion of a previously published photographic four-step severity grading scale for trachomatous scarring (TS).

METHODS

Images of everted eyelids of adult women in Tanzania were graded for the presence and severity of TS. The previous S3 grade was subdivided into two categories: S3A, one-third to <50% of the upper eyelid conjunctiva scarred; and S3B, 50% to <90%. The reliability and ease of use were evaluated. This new categorisation was then applied to images taken of the same women 5 y prior to evaluate whether it could help detect previously undetected progression.

RESULTS

In total, 142 eyes at baseline and 418 eyes at follow-up after 5 y were graded as S3. Interobserver agreement using the expanded scarring grading scale was a kappa of 0.86. At baseline, 51 (35.9%) eyes were S3A and 91 (64.1%) were S3B. At follow-up after 5 y, 36.6% of the eyes that were previously documented as not having progressed were now detected as having progressed from S3A to S3B. S3B images were more likely to progress to S4 compared with S3A (OR 4.6, 95% CI 2.1 to 9.9).

CONCLUSIONS

Adding S3A and S3B is reliable and detects more scarring progression. It will be beneficial for future studies analysing TS in photographs.