Transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in Afghanistan: A modelling study

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever cases diagnosed during an outbreak of Sudan virus disease in Uganda, 2022-23

BACKGROUND

In September 2022, Uganda experienced an outbreak of Sudan virus disease (SVD), mainly in central Uganda. As a result of enhanced surveillance activities for Ebola disease, samples from several patients with suspected viral hemorrhagic fever (VHF) were sent to the VHF Program at Uganda Virus Research Institute (UVRI), Entebbe, Uganda, and identified with infections caused by other viral etiologies. Herein, we report the epidemiologic and laboratory findings of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) cases that were detected during the SVD outbreak response.

METHODOLOGY

Whole blood samples from VHF suspected cases were tested for Sudan virus (SUDV) by real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR); and if negative, were tested for CCHF virus (CCHFV) by RT-PCR. CCHFV genomic sequences generated by metagenomic next generation sequencing were analyzed to ascertain strain relationships.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Between September 2022 and January 2023, a total of 2,626 samples were submitted for VHF testing at UVRI. Overall, 13 CCHF cases (including 7 deaths; case fatality rate of 53.8%), aged 4 to 60 years, were identified from 10 districts, including several districts affected by the SVD outbreak. Four cases were identified within the Ebola Treatment Unit (ETU) at Mubende Hospital. Most CCHF cases were males engaged in livestock farming or had exposure to wildlife (n = 8; 61.5%). Among confirmed cases, the most common clinical symptoms were hemorrhage (n = 12; 92.3%), fever (n = 11; 84.6%), anorexia (n = 10; 76.9%), fatigue (n = 9; 69.2%), abdominal pain (n = 9; 69.2%) and vomiting (n = 9; 69.2%). Sequencing analysis showed that the majority of identified CCHFV strains belonged to the Africa II clade previously identified in Uganda. Two samples, however, were identified with greater similarity to a CCHFV strain that was last reported in Uganda in 1958, suggesting possible reemergence.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Identifying CCHFV from individuals initially suspected to be infected with SUDV emphasizes the need for comprehensive VHF testing during filovirus outbreak responses in VHF endemic countries. Without expanded testing, CCHFV-infected patients would have posed a risk to health care workers and others while receiving treatment after a negative filovirus diagnosis, thereby complicating response dynamics. Additionally, CCHFV-infected cases could acquire an Ebola infection while in the ETU, and upon release because of a negative Ebola virus result, have the potential to spread these infections in the community.

Control strategies for emerging infectious diseases: Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever management

Background and Aims

Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) is a significant public health concern transmitted by ticks. This study seeks to thoroughly grasp the epidemiology and transmission patterns of CCHF, which is caused by the CCHF virus (CCHFV), a member of the Nairovirus genus in the Bunyaviridae family.

Methods

The study investigates the global distribution and endemicity of CCHF, its mortality rates, modes of transmission (including tick bites, contact with infected animal blood, and limited person-to-person transmission), and factors influencing its prevalence across different regions. Genetic diversity within CCHFV and its impact on transmission dynamics are explored, along with efforts to control the disease through tick prevention, antiviral treatment, and the development of vaccines and diagnostics.

Results

CCHFV exhibits widespread distribution, particularly in the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe, with an overall mortality rate of approximately 30% and a case fatality rate ranging from 10% to 40%. Transmission occurs primarily through tick bites and contact with infected animal blood, with limited person-to-person transmission. Livestock workers, slaughterhouse employees, and animal herders in endemic areas are most affected by their frequent interaction with sick animals and ticks. Genetic diversity within CCHFV contributes to variations in transmission dynamics, complicating control efforts. Antiviral ribavirin shows efficacy in treating CCHF infection.

Conclusion

This study underscores the importance of further research to understand the enzootic environment, transmission routes, and genetic diversity of CCHFV for effective control measures, including the development of vaccines, treatment options, and diagnostics.

Modeling platform to assess the effectiveness of single and integrated Ixodes scapularis tick control methods

BACKGROUND

Lyme disease continues to expand in Canada and the USA and no single intervention is likely to curb the epidemic.

METHODS

We propose a platform to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of a subset of Ixodes scapularis tick management approaches. The platform allows us to assess the impact of different control treatments, conducted either individually (single interventions) or in combination (combined efforts), with varying timings and durations. Interventions include three low environmental toxicity measures in differing combinations, namely reductions in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations, broadcast area-application of the entomopathogenic fungus Metarhizium anisopliae, and fipronil-based rodent-targeted bait boxes. To assess the impact of these control efforts, we calibrated a process-based mathematical model to data collected from residential properties in the town of Redding, southwestern Connecticut, where an integrated tick management program to reduce I.xodes scapularis nymphs was conducted from 2013 through 2016. We estimated parameters mechanistically for each of the three treatments, simulated multiple combinations and timings of interventions, and computed the resulting percent reduction of the nymphal peak and of the area under the phenology curve.

RESULTS

Simulation outputs suggest that the three-treatment combination and the bait boxes-deer reduction combination had the overall highest impacts on suppressing I. scapularis nymphs. All (single or combined) interventions were more efficacious when implemented for a higher number of years. When implemented for at least 4 years, most interventions (except the single application of the entomopathogenic fungus) were predicted to strongly reduce the nymphal peak compared with the no intervention scenario. Finally, we determined the optimal period to apply the entomopathogenic fungus in residential yards, depending on the number of applications.

CONCLUSIONS

Computer simulation is a powerful tool to identify the optimal deployment of individual and combined tick management approaches, which can synergistically contribute to short-to-long-term, costeffective, and sustainable control of tick-borne diseases in integrated tick management (ITM) interventions.

Study of optimal vaccination strategies for early COVID-19 pandemic using an age-structured mathematical model: A case study of the USA

In this paper we study different vaccination strategies that could have been implemented for the early COVID-19 pandemic. We use a demographic epidemiological mathematical model based on differential equations in order to investigate the efficacy of a variety of vaccination strategies under limited vaccine supply. We use the number of deaths as the metric to measure the efficacy of each of these strategies. Finding the optimal strategy for the vaccination programs is a complex problem due to the large number of variables that affect the outcomes. The constructed mathematical model takes into account demographic risk factors such as age, comorbidity status and social contacts of the population. We perform simulations to assess the performance of more than three million vaccination strategies which vary depending on the vaccine priority of each group. This study focuses on the scenario corresponding to the early vaccination period in the USA, but can be extended to other countries. The results of this study show the importance of designing an optimal vaccination strategy in order to save human lives. The problem is extremely complex due to the large amount of factors, high dimensionality and nonlinearities. We found that for low/moderate transmission rates the optimal strategy prioritizes high transmission groups, but for high transmission rates, the optimal strategy focuses on groups with high CFRs. The results provide valuable information for the design of optimal vaccination programs. Moreover, the results help to design scientific vaccination guidelines for future pandemics.

Vaccine efficacy trials for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever: Insights from modelling different epidemiological settings

BACKGROUND

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a priority emerging pathogen for which a licensed vaccine is not yet available. We aim to assess the feasibility of conducting phase III vaccine efficacy trials and the role of varying transmission dynamics.

METHODS

We calibrate models of CCHF virus (CCHFV) transmission among livestock and spillover to humans in endemic areas in Afghanistan, Turkey and South Africa. We propose an individual randomised controlled trial targeted to high-risk population, and use the calibrated models to simulate trial cohorts to estimate the minimum necessary number of cases (trial endpoints) to analyse a vaccine with a minimum efficacy of 60%, under different conditions of sample size and follow-up time in the three selected settings.

RESULTS

A mean follow-up of 160,000 person-month (75,000-550,000) would be necessary to accrue the required 150 trial endpoints for a target vaccine efficacy of 60 % and clinically defined endpoint, in a setting like Herat, Afghanistan. For Turkey, the same would be achieved with a mean follow-up of 175,000 person-month (50,000-350,000). The results suggest that for South Africa the low endemic transmission levels will not permit achieving the necessary conditions for conducting this trial within a realistic follow-up time. In the scenario of CCHFV vaccine trial designed to capture infection as opposed to clinical case as a trial endpoint, the required person-months is reduced by 70 % to 80 % in Afghanistan and Turkey, and in South Africa, a trial becomes feasible for a large number of person-months of follow-up (>600,000). Increased expected vaccine efficacy > 60 % will reduce the required number of trial endpoints and thus the sample size and follow-time in phase III trials.

CONCLUSIONS

Underlying endemic transmission levels will play a central role in defining the feasibility of phase III vaccine efficacy trials. Endemic settings in Afghanistan and Turkey offer conditions under which such studies could feasibly be conducted.