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Bos S, Zambrana JV, Duarte EM, Graber AL, Huffaker J, Montenegro C, Premkumar L, Gordon A, Balmaseda A, Harris E. Serotype-Specific Epidemiological Patterns of Inapparent versus Symptomatic Primary Dengue Virus Infections: A 17-year cohort study in Nicaragua. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2024:2024.04.05.24305281. [PMID: 38633800 PMCID: PMC11023678 DOI: 10.1101/2024.04.05.24305281] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/19/2024]
Abstract
Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease and a major public health problem worldwide. Most primary infections with the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) are inapparent; nonetheless, whether the distribution of symptomatic versus inapparent infections by serotype varies remains unknown. Here, we present (1) the evaluation of a multiplex DENV1-4 envelope domain III multiplex microsphere-based assay (EDIII-MMBA) to serotype inapparent primary infections and (2) its application leveraging 17 years of prospective sample collection from the Nicaraguan Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study (PDCS). First, we evaluated the performance of the EDIII-MMBA with samples characterized by RT-PCR or focus reduction neutralization test. Next, we analyzed 46% (N=574) of total inapparent primary DENV infections in the PDCS with the EDIII-MMBA to evaluate the epidemiology of inapparent infections. Remaining infections were inferred using stochastic imputation, taking year and neighborhood into account. Infection incidence and percentage of inapparent, symptomatic, and severe infections were analyzed by serotype. The EDIII-MMBA demonstrated excellent overall accuracy (100%, 95.8-100%) for serotyping symptomatic and inapparent primary DENV infections when evaluated against gold-standard serotyping methods. We found that a significant majority of primary infections were inapparent, with DENV3 exhibiting the highest likelihood of symptomatic and severe primary infections (Pooled OR compared to DENV1 = 2.13, 95% CI 1.28-3.56, and 6.75, 2.01-22.62, respectively), whereas DENV2 was similar to DENV1 in both analyses. Significant within- and between-year variation in serotype distribution between symptomatic and inapparent infections and circulation of serotypes undetected in symptomatic cases were observed in multiple years. Our study indicates that case surveillance skews the perceived epidemiological footprint of DENV. We reveal a more complex and intricate pattern of serotype distribution in inapparent infections. The significant differences in infection outcomes by serotype emphasizes the need for vaccines with balanced immunogenicity and efficacy across serotypes.
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Zúniga-Gutiérrez M, Meléndez M, Montoya SSR, Escobar HAF, López J, Paz S, Sauceda-Acosta D. Dengue Burden and Factors Influencing Severity in Honduras: A Descriptive and Analytical Study. Rev Soc Bras Med Trop 2024; 57:e004072024. [PMID: 38896654 PMCID: PMC11178375 DOI: 10.1590/0037-8682-0594-2023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2023] [Accepted: 05/09/2024] [Indexed: 06/21/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Dengue is a disease that accounts for a major morbidity and mortality in Honduras. METHODS This descriptive study used an analytical component based on the data from the National Virology Laboratory between 2016-2022. Ordinal logistic regression was used to identify the factors associated with the classification of dengue without warning signs (DWOS), dengue with warning signs (DWS), and severe dengue (SD). RESULTS Overall, 14,687 dengue cases were included; 50.1% had DWOS, 36.5% had DWS, and 13.4% had SD. Patients that were more associated with a higher probability of DWS and SD were patients in the age groups 1-4 years (DWS OR 1.61; 95%CI:1.33-1.94), (SD OR 1.52; 95% CI:1.26-1.84), 5-9 years (DWS OR 2.01; 95% CI:1.68-2.40), (SD OR 2.00; 95% CI:1.67-2.40), and 10-19 years (DWS OR 1.55; 95% CI:1.30-1.85) (SD OR 1.57; 95% CI:1.31-1.88). The departments that were associated with a higher probability of DWS and SD were La Paz (OR 6.35; 95% CI:3.53-11.42), (OR 10.94; 95% CI:5.96-20.08), Copán (OR 6.94; 95% CI:5.05-9.53) (OR 7.33; 95% CI: 5.35-10.03), Valle (OR 5.22; 95% CI:1.25-21.82) (OR 10.71; 95% CI:2.21-51.88). CONCLUSIONS During the study period, dengue presented endemic behavior, with peaks consistent with the last two epidemics in Honduras in 2015 and 2019. The main factors associated with dengue severity were age< 19 years, male sex, and being from La Paz, Copán, or Valle.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melba Zúniga-Gutiérrez
- Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Honduras, Research Institute in
Medical Sciences and Right to Health, Epidemiology Postgraduate Program Tegucigalpa,
Honduras
| | - Marlon Meléndez
- Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Honduras, Epidemiology Postgraduate
Program. Tegucigalpa, Honduras
| | | | | | - Jorge López
- Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Honduras, Demography and
Development Postgraduate Program. Tegucigalpa, Honduras
| | - Sandra Paz
- Ministry of Health, Health Surveillance Unit, National Virology
Laboratory. Tegucigalpa, Honduras
| | - Dilcia Sauceda-Acosta
- Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Honduras, Research Institute in
Medical Sciences and Right to Health, Epidemiology Postgraduate Program Tegucigalpa,
Honduras
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dos Santos BF, Gandolfi FA, Milhim BHGA, Dourado FS, Silva GCD, Zini N, Gratão VHR, Mariani MP, Abbas TN, Garcia PHC, Rocha RS, Vasilakis N, Nogueira ML, Estofolete CF. Diabetes as risk factor to severity of dengue in naïve patients. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2024:2024.04.27.24306485. [PMID: 38746281 PMCID: PMC11092716 DOI: 10.1101/2024.04.27.24306485] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/16/2024]
Abstract
Background Dengue cases can progress to severe ant life-threating forms particularly in subsequent heterologous infections. However, recent studies had explored additional risk factors, including underlying health conditions, even in individuals without prior exposure to dengue, notably, in patients with endothelial dysfunction and chronic inflammation. This study examines the link between diabetes and the development of severe dengue disease in dengue-naive patients during the 2019 dengue outbreak in São Jose do Rio Preto, Brazil. Methodology We enrolled 529 laboratory-confirmed dengue cases, identified through DENV RT-PCR or NS1 antigen assays in a hospital cohort of acute febrile illness. Subsequently, we investigated the presence of anti-dengue and anti-Zika IgG antibodies. Samples testing positive for Zika were excluded from the analyses. Two groups were analyzed: naïve (DV-), and dengue history (DV+). Results Initially, presence of diabetes and kidney disease, as well as being dengue-naive, were associated with a higher frequency of severe and potentially severe clinical outcomes. Multivariate analysis identified diabetes as a risk factor, while the presence of anti-dengue antibodies was considered protective. Analysis of dengue naïve samples, highlighted diabetes as an independent risk factor to severe forms of dengue disease. In DV+ patients, no condition was highlighted as a risk factor by univariate analysis or multivariate analysis. Conclusions We investigated and confirmed diabetes as a risk factor for severe dengue disease in individuals without prior dengue or Zika exposure. Our conclusions raise significant concerns given diabetes' ever increasing global prevalence and its potential impact on patients with or previous dengue exposure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bárbara F. dos Santos
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia (LPV), Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP); São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Flora A. Gandolfi
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia (LPV), Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP); São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Bruno H. G. A. Milhim
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia (LPV), Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP); São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Fernanda S. Dourado
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia (LPV), Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP); São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Gislaine C. D. Silva
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia (LPV), Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP); São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Nathalia Zini
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia (LPV), Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP); São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Victor Hugo Rezende Gratão
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia (LPV), Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP); São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Matheus Pascoal Mariani
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia (LPV), Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP); São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Tamires Nasie Abbas
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia (LPV), Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP); São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Pedro H. C. Garcia
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia (LPV), Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP); São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Rodrigo S. Rocha
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia (LPV), Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP); São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Nikos Vasilakis
- Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch; Galveston, Texas, USA
- Center for Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases, University of Texas Medical Branch; Galveston, Texas, USA
- Institute for Human Infection and Immunity, University of Texas Medical Branch; Galveston, Texas, USA
| | - Maurício L. Nogueira
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia (LPV), Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP); São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
- Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch; Galveston, Texas, USA
- Hospital de Base (HB), São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Cássia F. Estofolete
- Laboratório de Pesquisas em Virologia (LPV), Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto (FAMERP); São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
- Hospital de Base (HB), São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
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Sow A, Diallo C, Cherifi H. Interplay between vaccines and treatment for dengue control: An epidemic model. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0295025. [PMID: 38271384 PMCID: PMC10833586 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0295025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2023] [Accepted: 11/14/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2024] Open
Abstract
Assessing public health intervention strategies is crucial for effectively managing dengue. While numerous studies have explored the impact of dengue interventions on its transmission dynamics, limited research has focused on the combined effects of implementing multiple therapeutic interventions for disease control. This study presents an epidemic model for understanding dengue transmission dynamics, incorporating two critical therapeutic measures: vaccination and treatment of infected individuals. The model is characterized by ordinary differential equations involving seven-state variables. The investigation encompasses both disease-free and endemic equilibria of the model. The findings reveal that the disease-free equilibrium (only) is globally stable when the basic reproduction number is below one. Interestingly, when the vaccine's effectiveness is low, treatment emerges as a more successful approach in reducing dengue cases than vaccination. In contrast, a highly effective vaccine alone significantly curtails dengue occurrences. Moreover, the study introduces an optimal control problem, featuring an objective function integrating two control mechanisms: vaccination and treatment. The analysis strongly suggests that implementing two control strategies outweighs the efficacy of a single approach in effectively mitigating the spread of the disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abdoulaye Sow
- Department of Computer Science, Algebra Laboratory Cryptography Codes and Applications, Gaston Berger University, Sanit-Louis, Senegal
| | - Cherif Diallo
- Department of Computer Science, Algebra Laboratory Cryptography Codes and Applications, Gaston Berger University, Sanit-Louis, Senegal
| | - Hocine Cherifi
- Department of Computer Science, LIB Burgundy Computer Laboratory -EA 7534, University of Burgundy Franche-Comte, Dijon, France
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