Direct and indirect effects of age on dengue severity: The mediating role of secondary infection

Dengue Burden and Factors Influencing Severity in Honduras: A Descriptive and Analytical Study

BACKGROUND

Dengue is a disease that accounts for a major morbidity and mortality in Honduras.

METHODS

This descriptive study used an analytical component based on the data from the National Virology Laboratory between 2016-2022. Ordinal logistic regression was used to identify the factors associated with the classification of dengue without warning signs (DWOS), dengue with warning signs (DWS), and severe dengue (SD).

RESULTS

Overall, 14,687 dengue cases were included; 50.1% had DWOS, 36.5% had DWS, and 13.4% had SD. Patients that were more associated with a higher probability of DWS and SD were patients in the age groups 1-4 years (DWS OR 1.61; 95%CI:1.33-1.94), (SD OR 1.52; 95% CI:1.26-1.84), 5-9 years (DWS OR 2.01; 95% CI:1.68-2.40), (SD OR 2.00; 95% CI:1.67-2.40), and 10-19 years (DWS OR 1.55; 95% CI:1.30-1.85) (SD OR 1.57; 95% CI:1.31-1.88). The departments that were associated with a higher probability of DWS and SD were La Paz (OR 6.35; 95% CI:3.53-11.42), (OR 10.94; 95% CI:5.96-20.08), Copán (OR 6.94; 95% CI:5.05-9.53) (OR 7.33; 95% CI: 5.35-10.03), Valle (OR 5.22; 95% CI:1.25-21.82) (OR 10.71; 95% CI:2.21-51.88).

CONCLUSIONS

During the study period, dengue presented endemic behavior, with peaks consistent with the last two epidemics in Honduras in 2015 and 2019. The main factors associated with dengue severity were age< 19 years, male sex, and being from La Paz, Copán, or Valle.

Diabetes as risk factor to severity of dengue in naïve patients

Background

Dengue cases can progress to severe ant life-threating forms particularly in subsequent heterologous infections. However, recent studies had explored additional risk factors, including underlying health conditions, even in individuals without prior exposure to dengue, notably, in patients with endothelial dysfunction and chronic inflammation. This study examines the link between diabetes and the development of severe dengue disease in dengue-naive patients during the 2019 dengue outbreak in São Jose do Rio Preto, Brazil.

Methodology

We enrolled 529 laboratory-confirmed dengue cases, identified through DENV RT-PCR or NS1 antigen assays in a hospital cohort of acute febrile illness. Subsequently, we investigated the presence of anti-dengue and anti-Zika IgG antibodies. Samples testing positive for Zika were excluded from the analyses. Two groups were analyzed: naïve (DV-), and dengue history (DV+).

Results

Initially, presence of diabetes and kidney disease, as well as being dengue-naive, were associated with a higher frequency of severe and potentially severe clinical outcomes. Multivariate analysis identified diabetes as a risk factor, while the presence of anti-dengue antibodies was considered protective. Analysis of dengue naïve samples, highlighted diabetes as an independent risk factor to severe forms of dengue disease. In DV+ patients, no condition was highlighted as a risk factor by univariate analysis or multivariate analysis.

Conclusions

We investigated and confirmed diabetes as a risk factor for severe dengue disease in individuals without prior dengue or Zika exposure. Our conclusions raise significant concerns given diabetes' ever increasing global prevalence and its potential impact on patients with or previous dengue exposure.

Inapparent primary dengue virus infections reveal hidden serotype-specific epidemiological patterns and spectrum of infection outcome: a cohort study in Nicaragua

Background

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease and a major public health problem worldwide. Most primary infections with the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) are inapparent; nevertheless, prior research has primarily focused on symptomatic infections, which has limited our understanding of the epidemiological burden and spectrum of disease of each DENV serotype. Our study addresses this bottleneck in dengue research by providing a new method and a detailed examination of primary inapparent infections.

Methods

Here we present (1) the evaluation of a multiplex DENV1-4 envelope domain III multiplex microsphere-based assay (EDIII-MMBA) to serotype inapparent primary infections and (2) its application leveraging 17 years of prospective sample collection from the Nicaraguan Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study. After evaluation, we analyzed 46% (N=574) of total inapparent primary DENV infections with the EDIII-MMBA. Remaining infections were inferred using stochastic imputation, taking year and neighborhood of infection into account.

Findings

The EDIII-MMBA demonstrated excellent diagnostic accuracy of symptomatic and inapparent primary DENV infections when evaluated against gold-standard serotyping methods. Significant within- and between-year variation in serotype distribution between symptomatic and inapparent infections and circulation of serotypes undetected in symptomatic cases were observed in multiple years. Our findings reveal that a significant majority of primary infections remained inapparent: 76.8% for DENV1, 79.9% for DENV2, and 63.9% for DENV3. DENV3 exhibited the highest likelihood of symptomatic and severe primary infections (Pooled OR compared to DENV1 = 2.13, 95% CI 1.28-3.56, and 6.75, 2.01-22.62, respectively), whereas DENV2 had similar likelihood to DENV1 in both analyses.

Interpretation

Our study indicates that case surveillance skews the perceived epidemiological footprint of DENV and reveals a more complex and intricate pattern of serotype distribution in inapparent infections. Further, the significant differences in infection outcomes by serotype emphasizes the need for serotype-informed public health strategies.

Funding

NIH/NIAID P01AI106695, U01AI153416.

Research in context

Evidence before this study: We conducted a search in PubMed for studies published up to February 2024. Keywords included "dengue virus" and "DENV" in combination with "inapparent infections", "asymptomatic infections", "primary infections by serotype", "FoI by serotype", "force of infection", "force of infection by serotype", and identified a significant gap in the current understanding of dengue epidemiology. Despite acknowledging the high prevalence of inapparent DENV infections in endemic regions, previous research has focused primarily on symptomatic infections, potentially biasing our understanding of the DENV epidemiological landscape and hindering our capacity to determine the complete disease spectrum of the different DENV serotypes. While cross-sectional studies have provided preliminary insights into this gap, there is a need for more comprehensive and detailed serotype-specific insights to evaluate the epidemiological impact of inapparent infections. The lack of comprehensive characterization of inapparent infections reflects methodological challenges, particularly the need for prospective cohort studies designed to capture and accurately serotype these infections. Moreover, the reliance on labor-intensive and low-throughput antibody neutralization assays for serotyping, despite their accuracy, has constrained high-throughput analysis required for large-scale epidemiological studies.Added value of this study: Our study, spanning 17 years of prospective cohort data in Nicaragua, addresses this bottleneck in dengue research by providing a detailed examination of primary inapparent infections. The introduction of a novel envelope domain III (EDIII) multiplex microsphere-based assay for DENV serotyping represents a significant methodological advance, offering an efficient, scalable alternative for large epidemiological studies. A key contribution of our study is the intricate pattern of serotype distribution among inapparent infections. In contrast to the serotype predominance observed in symptomatic infections, inapparent infections exhibit a complex landscape with co-circulation of multiple DENV serotypes, including serotypes undetected in symptomatic surveillance in multiple years. Our systematic documentation of the entire disease spectrum provides unprecedented insights into the serotype-specific disease burden in primary infection, including the proportion of symptomatic versus inapparent infection and its temporal variations, thus providing a more complete picture of DENV epidemiology than has been available to date. Notably, we demonstrate striking differences in disease severity by serotype, with DENV3 infections being significantly more symptomatic and more severe compared to DENV1 and DENV2, the latter displaying the highest rate of inapparent infection.Implications of all the available evidence: Our research challenges prior assumptions by demonstrating that inapparent and symptomatic primary DENV infections present distinct epidemiological profiles, revealing that the epidemiological footprint of DENV is broader and more nuanced than previously recognized through symptomatic cases alone. These findings underscore the utility for continuous and comprehensive surveillance systems that capture both symptomatic and inapparent infections to accurately assess the epidemiological burden of DENV and inform public health interventions. Additionally, they provide critical insight for enhancing the accuracy of predictive DENV transmission modeling. Furthermore, the marked differences in infection outcomes by serotype emphasize the need for serotype-informed public health strategies. This nuanced understanding is pivotal for the crafting of targeted interventions, vaccine development and vaccination strategies, and efficient resource allocation, ultimately contributing to the global effort to mitigate the impact of dengue.

Interplay between vaccines and treatment for dengue control: An epidemic model

Assessing public health intervention strategies is crucial for effectively managing dengue. While numerous studies have explored the impact of dengue interventions on its transmission dynamics, limited research has focused on the combined effects of implementing multiple therapeutic interventions for disease control. This study presents an epidemic model for understanding dengue transmission dynamics, incorporating two critical therapeutic measures: vaccination and treatment of infected individuals. The model is characterized by ordinary differential equations involving seven-state variables. The investigation encompasses both disease-free and endemic equilibria of the model. The findings reveal that the disease-free equilibrium (only) is globally stable when the basic reproduction number is below one. Interestingly, when the vaccine's effectiveness is low, treatment emerges as a more successful approach in reducing dengue cases than vaccination. In contrast, a highly effective vaccine alone significantly curtails dengue occurrences. Moreover, the study introduces an optimal control problem, featuring an objective function integrating two control mechanisms: vaccination and treatment. The analysis strongly suggests that implementing two control strategies outweighs the efficacy of a single approach in effectively mitigating the spread of the disease.