Quantifying the extent of North American mammal extinction relative to the pre-anthropogenic baseline

Mule deer fawn recruitment dynamics in an energy disturbed landscape

Wildlife population dynamics are modulated by abiotic and biotic factors, typically climate, resource availability, density-dependent effects, and predator-prey interactions. Understanding whether and how human-caused disturbances shape these ecological processes is helpful for the conservation and management of wildlife and their habitats within increasingly human-dominated landscapes. However, many jurisdictions lack either long-term longitudinal data on wildlife populations or measures of the interplay between human-mediated disturbance, climate, and predator density. Here, we use a 50-year time series (1962-2012) on mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) demographics, seasonal weather, predator density, and oil and gas development patterns from the North Dakota Badlands, USA, to investigate long-term effects of landscape-level disturbance on mule deer fawn fall recruitment, which has declined precipitously over the last number of decades. Mule deer fawn fall recruitment in this study represents the number of fawns per female (fawn:female ratio) that survive through the summer to October. We used this fawn recruitment index to evaluate the composite effects of interannual extreme weather conditions, energy development, and predator density. We found that density-dependent effects and harsh seasonal weather were the main drivers of fawn fall recruitment in the North Dakota Badlands. These effects were further shaped by the interaction between harsh seasonal weather and predator density (i.e., lower fawn fall recruitment when harsh weather was combined with higher predator density). Additionally, we found that fawn fall recruitment was modulated by interactions between seasonal weather and energy development (i.e., lower fawn fall recruitment when harsh weather was combined with higher density of active oil and gas wells). Interestingly, we found that the combined effect of predator density and energy development was not interactive but rather additive. Our analysis demonstrates how energy development may modulate fluctuations in mule deer fawn fall recruitment concurrent with biotic (density-dependency, habitat, predation, woody vegetation encroachment) and abiotic (harsh seasonal weather) drivers. Density-dependent patterns emerge, presumably due to limited quality habitat, being the primary factor influencing fall fawn recruitment in mule deer. Secondarily, stochastic weather events periodically cause dramatic declines in recruitment. And finally, the additive effects of human disturbance and predation can induce fluctuations in fawn fall recruitment. Here we make the case for using long-term datasets for setting long-term wildlife management goals that decision makers and the public can understand and support.

Human land-use effects on mammalian mesopredator occupancy of a northeastern Connecticut landscape

Mammalian mesopredators-mid-sized carnivores-are ecologically, economically, and socially important. With their adaptability to a variety of habitats and diets, loss of apex predators, and forest regrowth, many of these species are increasing in number throughout the northeastern United States. However, currently the region is seeing extensive landscape alterations, with an increase in residential and industrial development, especially at the expense of existing forest and small-scale farmland. We sought to understand how important an existing mosaic of working lands (timberland and farmland) in a forested landscape is to mesopredator species. We did this by studying mesopredator occupancy across three land uses (or habitat types): forest reserve (protected), timber harvest (shelterwood cuts), and field (both crop yielding and fallow) in and around a 3200-ha forest in northeastern Connecticut. We examined coyote (Canis latrans), bobcat (Lynx rufus), fisher (Pekania pennanti), and raccoon (Procyon lotor) occupancy using paired camera traps across juxtaposed reserve, shelterwood, and field units from April 2018 to March 2019. We created a priori habitat variable models for each species and season, as well as analyzed the impact of habitat types on each species. Throughout the year bobcats were positively associated with foliage height diversity and had the highest use in shelterwoods and lowest use in fields. Land use utilization varied seasonally for coyotes and raccoons, with higher use of fields than reserves and shelterwoods for half the year and no difference between land uses and the other half. Both species were not strongly associated with any particular habitat variables. Reserve forest was moderate to highly used by all species for at least half the year, and highly use year-round by fishers. Our findings reveal that a mosaic of intact forest and working lands, timber harvest, and agriculture can support mesopredator diversity.

Comparison of environmental inference approaches for ecometric analyses: Using hypsodonty to estimate precipitation

Ecometrics is the study of community-level functional trait-environment relationships. We use ecometric analyses to estimate paleoenvironment and to investigate community-level functional changes through time.We evaluate four methods that have been used or have the potential to be used in ecometric analyses for estimating paleoenvironment to determine whether there have been systematic differences in paleoenvironmental estimation due to choice of the estimation method. Specifically, we evaluated linear regression, polynomial regression, nearest neighbor, and maximum-likelihood methods to explore the predictive ability of the relationship for a well-known ecometric dataset of mammalian herbivore hypsodonty metrics (molar tooth crown to root height ratio) and annual precipitation. Each method was applied to 43 Pleistocene fossil sites and compared to annual precipitation from global climate models. Sites were categorized as glacial or interglacial, and paleoprecipitation estimates were compared to the appropriate model.Estimation methods produce results that are highly correlated with log precipitation and estimates from the other methods (p < 0.001). Differences between estimated precipitation and observed precipitation are not significantly different across the four methods, but maximum likelihood produces the most accurate estimates of precipitation. When applied to paleontological sites, paleoprecipitation estimates align more closely with glacial global climate models than with interglacial models regardless of the age of the site.Each method has constraints that are important to consider when designing ecometric analyses to avoid misinterpretations when ecometric relationships are applied to the paleontological record. We show interglacial fauna estimates of paleoprecipitation more closely match glacial global climate models. This is likely because of the anthropogenic effects on community reassembly in the Holocene.

The apparent exponential radiation of Phanerozoic land vertebrates is an artefact of spatial sampling biases

There is no consensus about how terrestrial biodiversity was assembled through deep time, and in particular whether it has risen exponentially over the Phanerozoic. Using a database of 60 859 fossil occurrences, we show that the spatial extent of the worldwide terrestrial tetrapod fossil record itself expands exponentially through the Phanerozoic. Changes in spatial sampling explain up to 67% of the change in known fossil species counts, and these changes are decoupled from variation in habitable land area that existed through time. Spatial sampling therefore represents a real and profound sampling bias that cannot be explained as redundancy. To address this bias, we estimate terrestrial tetrapod diversity for palaeogeographical regions of approximately equal size. We find that regional-scale diversity was constrained over timespans of tens to hundreds of millions of years, and similar patterns are recovered for major subgroups, such as dinosaurs, mammals and squamates. Although the Cretaceous/Palaeogene mass extinction catalysed an abrupt two- to three-fold increase in regional diversity 66 million years ago, no further increases occurred, and recent levels of regional diversity do not exceed those of the Palaeogene. These results parallel those recovered in analyses of local community-level richness. Taken together, our findings strongly contradict past studies that suggested unbounded diversity increases at local and regional scales over the last 100 million years.

Effects of large herbivores on tundra vegetation in a changing climate, and implications for rewilding

In contrast to that of the Pleistocene epoch, between approximately 2.6 million and 10 000 years before present, the extant community of large herbivores in Arctic tundra is species-poor predominantly due to human extinctions. We here discuss how this species-poor herbivore guild influences tundra ecosystems, especially in relation to the rapidly changing climate. We show that present herbivore assemblages have large effects on tundra ecosystem composition and function and suggest that the effect on thermophilic species expected to invade the tundra in a warmer climate is especially strong, and that herbivores slow ecosystem responses to climate change. We focus on the ability of herbivores to drive transitions between different vegetation states. One such transition is between tundra and forest. A second vegetation transition discussed is between grasslands and moss- and shrub-dominated tundra. Contemporary studies show that herbivores can drive such state shifts and that a more diverse herbivore assemblage would have even higher potential to do so. We conclude that even though many large herbivores, and especially the megaherbivores, are extinct, there is a potential to reintroduce large herbivores in many arctic locations, and that doing so would potentially reduce some of the unwanted effects of a warmer climate.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.

Controlling for the species-area effect supports constrained long-term Mesozoic terrestrial vertebrate diversification

Variation in the geographic spread of fossil localities strongly biases inferences about the evolution of biodiversity, due to the ubiquitous scaling of species richness with area. This obscures answers to key questions, such as how tetrapods attained their tremendous extant diversity. Here, we address this problem by applying sampling standardization methods to spatial regions of equal size, within a global Mesozoic-early Palaeogene data set of non-flying terrestrial tetrapods. We recover no significant increase in species richness between the Late Triassic and the Cretaceous/Palaeogene (K/Pg) boundary, strongly supporting bounded diversification in Mesozoic tetrapods. An abrupt tripling of richness in the earliest Palaeogene suggests that this diversity equilibrium was reset following the K/Pg extinction. Spatial heterogeneity in sampling is among the most important biases of fossil data, but has often been overlooked. Our results indicate that controlling for variance in geographic spread in the fossil record significantly impacts inferred patterns of diversity through time.

Species richness increases with area sampled, potentially confounding biodiversity patterns from the fossil record. Here, the authors standardize spatial sampling to control for this bias and show that terrestrial vertebrate diversification was bounded during the Mesozoic but that equilibria were reset following the K/Pg extinction.

Science for a wilder Anthropocene: Synthesis and future directions for trophic rewilding research

Trophic rewilding is an ecological restoration strategy that uses species introductions to restore top-down trophic interactions and associated trophic cascades to promote self-regulating biodiverse ecosystems. Given the importance of large animals in trophic cascades and their widespread losses and resulting trophic downgrading, it often focuses on restoring functional megafaunas. Trophic rewilding is increasingly being implemented for conservation, but remains controversial. Here, we provide a synthesis of its current scientific basis, highlighting trophic cascades as the key conceptual framework, discussing the main lessons learned from ongoing rewilding projects, systematically reviewing the current literature, and highlighting unintentional rewilding and spontaneous wildlife comebacks as underused sources of information. Together, these lines of evidence show that trophic cascades may be restored via species reintroductions and ecological replacements. It is clear, however, that megafauna effects may be affected by poorly understood trophic complexity effects and interactions with landscape settings, human activities, and other factors. Unfortunately, empirical research on trophic rewilding is still rare, fragmented, and geographically biased, with the literature dominated by essays and opinion pieces. We highlight the need for applied programs to include hypothesis testing and science-based monitoring, and outline priorities for future research, notably assessing the role of trophic complexity, interplay with landscape settings, land use, and climate change, as well as developing the global scope for rewilding and tools to optimize benefits and reduce human-wildlife conflicts. Finally, we recommend developing a decision framework for species selection, building on functional and phylogenetic information and with attention to the potential contribution from synthetic biology.

A 2.5-million-year perspective on coarse-filter strategies for conserving nature's stage

Climate change will require novel conservation strategies. One such tactic is a coarse-filter approach that focuses on conserving nature's stage (CNS) rather than the actors (individual species). However, there is a temporal mismatch between the long-term goals of conservation and the short-term nature of most ecological studies, which leaves many assumptions untested. Paleoecology provides a valuable perspective on coarse-filter strategies by marshaling the natural experiments of the past to contextualize extinction risk due to the emerging impacts of climate change and anthropogenic threats. We reviewed examples from the paleoecological record that highlight the strengths, opportunities, and caveats of a CNS approach. We focused on the near-time geological past of the Quaternary, during which species were subjected to widespread changes in climate and concomitant changes in the physical environment in general. Species experienced a range of individualistic responses to these changes, including community turnover and novel associations, extinction and speciation, range shifts, changes in local richness and evenness, and both equilibrium and disequilibrium responses. Due to the dynamic nature of species responses to Quaternary climate change, a coarse-filter strategy may be appropriate for many taxa because it can accommodate dynamic processes. However, conservationists should also consider that the persistence of landforms varies across space and time, which could have potential long-term consequences for geodiversity and thus biodiversity.

Community ecology in a changing environment: Perspectives from the Quaternary

Community ecology and paleoecology are both concerned with the composition and structure of biotic assemblages but are largely disconnected. Community ecology focuses on existing species assemblages and recently has begun to integrate history (phylogeny and continental or intercontinental dispersal) to constrain community processes. This division has left a "missing middle": Ecological and environmental processes occurring on timescales from decades to millennia are not yet fully incorporated into community ecology. Quaternary paleoecology has a wealth of data documenting ecological dynamics at these timescales, and both fields can benefit from greater interaction and articulation. We discuss ecological insights revealed by Quaternary terrestrial records, suggest foundations for bridging between the disciplines, and identify topics where the disciplines can engage to mutual benefit.

The relationship between genus richness and geographic area in Late Cretaceous marine biotas: epicontinental sea versus open-ocean-facing settings

For present-day biotas, close relationships have been documented between the number of species in a given region and the area of the region. To date, however, there have been only limited studies of these relationships in the geologic record, particularly for ancient marine biotas. The recent development of large-scale marine paleontological databases, in conjunction with enhanced geographical mapping tools, now allow for their investigation. At the same time, there has been renewed interest in comparing the environmental and paleobiological properties of two broad-scale marine settings: epicontinental seas, broad expanses of shallow water covering continental areas, and open-ocean-facing settings, shallow shelves and coastlines that rim ocean basins. Recent studies indicate that spatial distributions of taxa and the kinetics of taxon origination and extinction may have differed in these two settings. Against this backdrop, we analyze regional Genus-Area Relationships (GARs) of Late Cretaceous marine invertebrates in epicontinental sea and open-ocean settings using data from the Paleobiology Database. We present a new method for assessing GARs that is particularly appropriate for fossil data when the geographic distribution of these data is patchy and uneven. Results demonstrate clear relationships between genus richness and area for regions worldwide, but indicate that as area increases, genus richness increases more per unit area in epicontinental seas than in open-ocean settings. This difference implies a greater degree of compositional heterogeneity as a function of geographic area in epicontinental sea settings, a finding that is consistent with the emerging understanding of physical differences in the nature of water masses between the two marine settings.

A warrant for applied palaeozoology

It has been argued by some neozoologists (those who study living animals) that the palaeozoological record is biased and incomplete (relative to an existing biological community) and therefore should not be consulted for purposes of conservation biology. An article published in a biology journal in 2011 lists numerous reasons why natural history collections (NHCs) of skins and skulls of animals collected over the past century or two are exceptionally valuable to conservation biologists because those collections provide significant time depth to numerous variables that document global biological change. Many of those same variables can be, and have been, identified in the palaeozoological record. Those variables are of major value to conservation biology, whether their values are taken from 100-year-old NHCs or from palaeozoological remains. Empirical examples in which the identified variables are measured in palaeozoological contexts indicate that the palaeozoological record should indeed be consulted by conservation biologists and can no longer be considered unsatisfactory for modern resource management.

Has the Earth's sixth mass extinction already arrived?

Palaeontologists characterize mass extinctions as times when the Earth loses more than three-quarters of its species in a geologically short interval, as has happened only five times in the past 540 million years or so. Biologists now suggest that a sixth mass extinction may be under way, given the known species losses over the past few centuries and millennia. Here we review how differences between fossil and modern data and the addition of recently available palaeontological information influence our understanding of the current extinction crisis. Our results confirm that current extinction rates are higher than would be expected from the fossil record, highlighting the need for effective conservation measures.

History matters: ecometrics and integrative climate change biology

Climate change research is increasingly focusing on the dynamics among species, ecosystems and climates. Better data about the historical behaviours of these dynamics are urgently needed. Such data are already available from ecology, archaeology, palaeontology and geology, but their integration into climate change research is hampered by differences in their temporal and geographical scales. One productive way to unite data across scales is the study of functional morphological traits, which can form a common denominator for studying interactions between species and climate across taxa, across ecosystems, across space and through time—an approach we call ‘ecometrics’. The sampling methods that have become established in palaeontology to standardize over different scales can be synthesized with tools from community ecology and climate change biology to improve our understanding of the dynamics among species, ecosystems, climates and earth systems over time. Developing these approaches into an integrative climate change biology will help enrich our understanding of the changes our modern world is undergoing.

Conservation of forest birds: evidence of a shifting baseline in community structure

Background

Quantifying changes in forest bird diversity is an essential task for developing effective conservation actions. When subtle changes in diversity accumulate over time, annual comparisons may offer an incomplete perspective of changes in diversity. In this case, progressive change, the comparison of changes in diversity from a baseline condition, may offer greater insight because changes in diversity are assessed over longer periods of times. Our objectives were to determine how forest bird diversity has changed over time and whether those changes were associated with forest disturbance.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used North American Breeding Bird Survey data, a time series of Landsat images classified with respect to land cover change, and mixed-effects models to associate changes in forest bird community structure with forest disturbance, latitude, and longitude in the conterminous United States for the years 1985 to 2006. We document a significant divergence from the baseline structure for all birds of similar migratory habit and nest location, and all forest birds as a group from 1985 to 2006. Unexpectedly, decreases in progressive similarity resulted from small changes in richness (<1 species per route for the 22-year study period) and modest losses in abundance (−28.7–−10.2 individuals per route) that varied by migratory habit and nest location. Forest disturbance increased progressive similarity for Neotropical migrants, permanent residents, ground nesting, and cavity nesting species. We also documented highest progressive similarity in the eastern United States.

Conclusions/Significance

Contemporary forest bird community structure is changing rapidly over a relatively short period of time (e.g., ∼22 years). Forest disturbance and forest regeneration are primary factors associated with contemporary forest bird community structure, longitude and latitude are secondary factors, and forest loss is a tertiary factor. Importantly, these findings suggest some regions of the United States may already fall below the habitat amount threshold where fragmentation effects become important predictors of forest bird community structure.