Long-term costs and health impact of continued global fund support for antiretroviral therapy

Priority Setting in HIV, Tuberculosis, and Malaria - New Cost-Effectiveness Results From WHO-CHOICE

BACKGROUND

This paper forms part of an update of the World Health Organization Choosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective (WHO-CHOICE) programmes. It provides an assessment of global health system performance during the first decade of the 21st century (2000-2010) with respect to allocative efficiency in HIV, tuberculosis (TB) and malaria control, thereby shining a spotlight on programme development and scale up in these Millennium Development Goal (MDG) priority areas; and examining the cost-effectiveness of selected best-practice interventions and intervention packages commonly in use during that period.

METHODS

Generalized cost-effectiveness analysis (GCEA) was used to determine the cost-effectiveness of the selected interventions. Impact modelling was performed using the OpenMalaria platform for malaria and using the Goals and TIME (TB Impact Model and Estimates) models in Spectrum for HIV and TB. All health system costs, regardless of payer, were included and reported in international dollars. Health outcomes are estimated and reported as the gain in healthy life years (HLYs) due to the specific intervention or combination. Analysis was restricted to eastern sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia.

RESULTS

At the reference year of 2010, commonly used interventions for HIV, TB and malaria were cost-effective, with cost-effectiveness ratios less than I$ 100/HLY saved for virtually all interventions included. HIV, TB and malaria prevention and treatment interventions are highly cost-effective and can be implemented through a phased approach to full coverage to achieve maximum health benefits and contribute to the progressive elimination of these diseases.

CONCLUSION

During the first decade of the 21st century (2000-2010), the global community has done well overall for HIV, TB, and malaria programmes as regards both economic efficiency and programmatic selection criteria. The role of international assistance, financial and technical, arguably was critical to these successes. As the global community now tackles the challenge of universal health coverage, this analysis can reinforce commitment to Sustainable Development Goal targets but also the importance of continued focus on these critical programme areas.

Global fund: Analyzing 10 Years of bridging health inequalities

The Global Fund is a non-profit organization founded by Bill Gates, Melinda Gates, Kofi Annan, Amir Attaran, and Jeffrey Sachs on the 28th January, 2002. Each year, about US$ 4 billion is invested to support programs and organizations led by local experts in various communities towards developing strategies and ways in which these three (HIV/AIDS, Malaria and Tuberculosis) diseases could be fought. The Global Fund has supported various innovative strategies used in tackling these infectious diseases. It is also worthy of note that 38 million lives have been saved through the Global Funds Partnership resulting in a 50% decline in mortality rate caused by tuberculosis, AIDS and Malaria in these reached countries. However, the Global Fund is not without its challenges as there has been lack of fund commitment from the G8 countries who instituted the idea in the first place. Another limitation being experienced is the poor risk management that has resulted in discrepancies of over US$4 million discovered in the Global Fund grants received by Nigeria as of 2016. This study discusses the current state of the Global Fund and suggests recommendations to policymakers that could be instrumental in strengthening health systems and achieving increased impact.

Levels of option B+ ART drugs adherence and associated factors among pregnant women following ART services at public health facilities of East Shawa Zone, Oromia, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Anti-retroviral therapy has led to a significant reduction in morbidity and mortality related to HIV/AIDS. However, this cannot be fully realized without addressing the barriers related to retention in care and medication adherence.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study design was implemented to select 293 pregnant women on option B+ anti-retroviral treatment (ART). The collected data was cleaned and entered into Epidata version 3.1 and exported to SPSS Version 21 for analysis. Multiple logistic regression models were used to indicate the association between variables.

RESULTS

The overall drug adherence of pregnant women on ART medications was 82.6%. The study showed that participants educational status, AOR 4.54(95% CI; 1.72-11.95), participants status disclosure 2.61(95% CI; 1.01-6.71), social and financial support to the participants AOR 2.76(95% CI; 1.17-6.51), counseling on the benefit AOR 2.9(95% CI; 1.27-6.63), were all positive and significantly associated with adherence to option B + treatment, while experience of drug side effect AOR 0.24(95% CI; 0.1-0.6), and fear of stigma and discrimination AOR 15.79(95% CI; 4.64-53.67), were negatively associated with adherence to option B+ treatment.

CONCLUSION

Educational status, counseling on the health benefit of treatment for the fetus and the mothers, social and financial support favors adherence while fear of stigma and discrimination and drug side effects negatively affect adherence to option B+. The study calls for collaborative work among patients, healthcare professionals, and the public to enhance ART adherence.

The role of the Technical Review Panel of the Global Fund to Fight HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria: an analysis of grant recommendations

The independent Technical Review Panel (TRP) of the Global Fund to Fight HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria is a unique mechanism to review funding proposals and to provide recommendations on their funding. Its functioning and performance have received little attention in the scientific literature. We aimed to identify predictors for TRP recommendations, whether these were in line with the Global Fund's ambition to give priority to countries most in need, and whether they correlated with grant performance. We combined data on proposals and applications under the Rolling Continuation Channel, TRP recommendations and grant implementation during the rounds-based mechanism (2002-2010) with country characteristics. Ordered logistic and OLS regressions were used to identify predictors for per-capita funding requests, TRP recommendations, Global Fund funding and grant performance ratings. We tested for financial suppression of large funding proposals and whether fragile or English-speaking countries performed differently from other countries. We found that funding requests and TRP recommendations were consistent with disease burden, but independent of other country characteristics. Countries with larger populations requested less funding per capita, but there is no evidence of financial suppression by the TRP. Proposals from fragile countries were as likely to be recommended as proposals from other countries, and resulting grants performed equally well except for lower performance of HIV/AIDS grants. English-speaking countries obtained more funding for TB and malaria than other countries. In conclusion, the independent TRP acted in line with the guiding principles of the Global Fund to direct funding to countries most in need without ex ante country allocation. The Global Fund appears to have promoted learning on how to design and implement large-scale programs in fragile and non-fragile countries. Other pooled financing mechanisms may consider TRP operating principles to generate high-quality demand, to promote learning and to direct resources to countries most in need.

Success factors for universal access to antiretroviral treatments in South Africa

This article studies the epidemiological and economic impacts of a universal testing and treatment policy of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in South Africa. A model of disease transmission is built to simulate several implementation scenarios of the policy. Different behavioral responses in the general population are considered. The results show that the success of a large-scale HIV testing and treatment program in South Africa depends on its implementation conditions. The policy can lead to a reduction of the HIV epidemic, even in the case of a large relapse in preventive behaviors in the general population, if implementation conditions are favorable. This is the case if the number of infected individuals who are infectious is greatly reduced. From an economic point of view, taking into account the positive externality of antiretroviral (ARV) treatments changes the traditional framework of cost-benefit analyses. A large-scale testing and treatment program would be cost-saving in the case of favorable implementation conditions, even following a large increase in risk behaviors after the scaling up of ARV treatments. By contrast, the analysis stresses out the potential perverse effects of scaling up ARV treatments in South Africa if the intervention is set up without ensuring enough resources for patients' monitoring and the availability of effective ARV drugs. Indeed, if the number of treated patients rises while adherence of patients to treatments decreases and the rate of loss to follow-up increases, the policy could extend the pool of infectious patients and lead to a long-term amplification of the epidemic.

Changing HIV treatment eligibility under health system constraints in sub-Saharan Africa: investment needs, population health gains, and cost-effectiveness

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text

Objective:

We estimated the investment needs, population health gains, and cost-effectiveness of different policy options for scaling-up prevention and treatment of HIV in the 10 countries that currently comprise 80% of all people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe).

Design:

We adapted the established STDSIM model to capture the health system dynamics: demand-side and supply-side constraints in the delivery of antiretroviral treatment (ART).

Methods:

We compared different scenarios of supply-side (i.e. health system capacity) and demand-side (i.e. health seeking behavior) constraints, and determined the impact of changing guidelines to ART eligibility at any CD4⁺ cell count within these constraints.

Results:

Continuing current scale-up would require US$178 billion by 2050. Changing guidelines to ART at any CD4⁺ cell count is cost-effective under all constraints tested in the model, especially in demand-side constrained health systems because earlier initiation prevents loss-to-follow-up of patients not yet eligible. Changing guidelines under current demand-side constraints would avert 1.8 million infections at US$208 per life-year saved.

Conclusion:

Treatment eligibility at any CD4⁺ cell count would be cost-effective, even under health system constraints. Excessive loss-to-follow-up and mortality in patients not eligible for treatment can be avoided by changing guidelines in demand-side constrained systems. The financial obligation for sustaining the AIDS response in sub-Saharan Africa over the next 35 years is substantial and requires strong, long-term commitment of policy-makers and donors to continue to allocate substantial parts of their budgets.

Drug-Based Lead Discovery: The Novel Ablative Antiretroviral Profile of Deferiprone in HIV-1-Infected Cells and in HIV-Infected Treatment-Naive Subjects of a Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Randomized Exploratory Trial

Antiretrovirals suppress HIV-1 production yet spare the sites of HIV-1 production, the HIV-1 DNA-harboring cells that evade immune detection and enable viral resistance on-drug and viral rebound off-drug. Therapeutic ablation of pathogenic cells markedly improves the outcome of many diseases. We extend this strategy to HIV-1 infection. Using drug-based lead discovery, we report the concentration threshold-dependent antiretroviral action of the medicinal chelator deferiprone and validate preclinical findings by a proof-of-concept double-blind trial. In isolate-infected primary cultures, supra-threshold concentrations during deferiprone monotherapy caused decline of HIV-1 RNA and HIV-1 DNA; did not allow viral breakthrough for up to 35 days on-drug, indicating resiliency against viral resistance; and prevented, for at least 87 days off-drug, viral rebound. Displaying a steep dose-effect curve, deferiprone produced infection-independent deficiency of hydroxylated hypusyl-eIF5A. However, unhydroxylated deoxyhypusyl-eIF5A accumulated particularly in HIV-infected cells; they preferentially underwent apoptotic DNA fragmentation. Since the threshold, ascertained at about 150 μM, is achievable in deferiprone-treated patients, we proceeded from cell culture directly to an exploratory trial. HIV-1 RNA was measured after 7 days on-drug and after 28 and 56 days off-drug. Subjects who attained supra-threshold concentrations in serum and completed the protocol of 17 oral doses, experienced a zidovudine-like decline of HIV-1 RNA on-drug that was maintained off-drug without statistically significant rebound for 8 weeks, over 670 times the drug's half-life and thus clearance from circulation. The uniform deferiprone threshold is in agreement with mapping of, and crystallographic 3D-data on, the active site of deoxyhypusyl hydroxylase (DOHH), the eIF5A-hydroxylating enzyme. We propose that deficiency of hypusine-containing eIF5A impedes the translation of mRNAs encoding proline cluster ('polyproline')-containing proteins, exemplified by Gag/p24, and facilitated by the excess of deoxyhypusine-containing eIF5A, releases the innate apoptotic defense of HIV-infected cells from viral blockade, thus depleting the cellular reservoir of HIV-1 DNA that drives breakthrough and rebound.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrial.gov NCT02191657.

Impact and Cost of the HIV/AIDS National Strategic Plan for Mozambique, 2015-2019--Projections with the Spectrum/Goals Model

Introduction

Mozambique continues to face a severe HIV epidemic and high cost for its control, largely born by international donors. We assessed feasible targets, likely impact and costs for the 2015–2019 national strategic HIV/AIDS plan (NSP).

Methods

The HIV epidemic and response was modelled in the Spectrum/Goals/Resource Needs dynamical simulation model, separately for North/Center/South regions, fitted to antenatal clinic surveillance data, household and key risk group surveys, program statistics, and financial records. Intervention targets were defined in collaboration with the National AIDS Council, Ministry of Health, technical partners and implementing NGOs, considering existing commitments.

Results

Implementing the NSP to meet existing coverage targets would reduce annual new infections among all ages from 105,000 in 2014 to 78,000 in 2019, and reduce annual HIV/AIDS-related deaths from 80,000 to 56,000. Additional scale-up of prevention interventions targeting high-risk groups, with improved patient retention on ART, could further reduce burden to 65,000 new infections and 51,000 HIV-related deaths in 2019. Program cost would increase from US$ 273 million in 2014, to US$ 433 million in 2019 for ‘Current targets’, or US$ 495 million in 2019 for ‘Accelerated scale-up’. The ‘Accelerated scale-up’ would lower cost per infection averted, due to an enhanced focus on behavioural prevention for high-risk groups. Cost and mortality impact are driven by ART, which accounts for 53% of resource needs in 2019. Infections averted are driven by scale-up of interventions targeting sex work (North, rising epidemic) and voluntary male circumcision (Center & South, generalized epidemics).

Conclusion

The NSP could aim to reduce annual new HIV infections and deaths by 2019 by 30% and 40%, respectively, from 2014 levels. Achieving incidence and mortality reductions corresponding to UNAIDS’ ‘Fast track’ targets will require increased ART coverage and additional behavioural prevention targeting key risk groups.

The HIV Treatment Gap: Estimates of the Financial Resources Needed versus Available for Scale-Up of Antiretroviral Therapy in 97 Countries from 2015 to 2020

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) released revised guidelines in 2015 recommending that all people living with HIV, regardless of CD4 count, initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) upon diagnosis. However, few studies have projected the global resources needed for rapid scale-up of ART. Under the Health Policy Project, we conducted modeling analyses for 97 countries to estimate eligibility for and numbers on ART from 2015 to 2020, along with the facility-level financial resources required. We compared the estimated financial requirements to estimated funding available.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Current coverage levels and future need for treatment were based on country-specific epidemiological and demographic data. Simulated annual numbers of individuals on treatment were derived from three scenarios: (1) continuation of countries' current policies of eligibility for ART, (2) universal adoption of aspects of the WHO 2013 eligibility guidelines, and (3) expanded eligibility as per the WHO 2015 guidelines and meeting the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS "90-90-90" ART targets. We modeled uncertainty in the annual resource requirements for antiretroviral drugs, laboratory tests, and facility-level personnel and overhead. We estimate that 25.7 (95% CI 25.5, 26.0) million adults and 1.57 (95% CI 1.55, 1.60) million children could receive ART by 2020 if countries maintain current eligibility plans and increase coverage based on historical rates, which may be ambitious. If countries uniformly adopt aspects of the WHO 2013 guidelines, 26.5 (95% CI 26.0 27.0) million adults and 1.53 (95% CI 1.52, 1.55) million children could be on ART by 2020. Under the 90-90-90 scenario, 30.4 (95% CI 30.1, 30.7) million adults and 1.68 (95% CI 1.63, 1.73) million children could receive treatment by 2020. The facility-level financial resources needed for scaling up ART in these countries from 2015 to 2020 are estimated to be US$45.8 (95% CI 45.4, 46.2) billion under the current scenario, US$48.7 (95% CI 47.8, 49.6) billion under the WHO 2013 scenario, and US$52.5 (95% CI 51.4, 53.6) billion under the 90-90-90 scenario. After projecting recent external and domestic funding trends, the estimated 6-y financing gap ranges from US$19.8 billion to US$25.0 billion, depending on the costing scenario and the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief contribution level, with the gap for ART commodities alone ranging from US$14.0 to US$16.8 billion. The study is limited by excluding above-facility and other costs essential to ART service delivery and by the availability and quality of country- and region-specific data.

CONCLUSIONS

The projected number of people receiving ART across three scenarios suggests that countries are unlikely to meet the 90-90-90 treatment target (81% of people living with HIV on ART by 2020) unless they adopt a test-and-offer approach and increase ART coverage. Our results suggest that future resource needs for ART scale-up are smaller than stated elsewhere but still significantly threaten the sustainability of the global HIV response without additional resource mobilization from domestic or innovative financing sources or efficiency gains. As the world moves towards adopting the WHO 2015 guidelines, advances in technology, including the introduction of lower-cost, highly effective antiretroviral regimens, whose value are assessed here, may prove to be "game changers" that allow more people to be on ART with the resources available.

Second-Line HIV Therapy Outcomes and Determinants of Mortality at the Largest HIV Referral Center in Southern Vietnam

The growing numbers of HIV-infected patients requiring second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Vietnam make essential the evaluation of treatment efficacy to guide treatment strategies.We evaluated all patients aged ≥15 years who initiated second-line ART after documented failure of first-line therapy at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City. The primary outcome was time from second-line ART initiation to death, or to a new or reoccurrence of a WHO-defined immunological or clinical failure event, whichever occurred first. Risks of treatment failure and death were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards modeling.Data from 326 of 373 patients initiating second-line ART between November 2006 and August 2011 were included in this analysis. The median age was 32 years (IQR: 28-36). Eighty one percent were men. The median CD4 count was 44 cells/μL (IQR: 16-84). During a median follow-up of 29 months (IQR: 15-44), 60 (18.4%) patients experienced treatment failure, including 12 immunological failures, 4 WHO stage IV AIDS events, and 44 deaths (13.5%). Sixty percent of deaths occurred during the first 6-12 months. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of treatment failure after 1, 2, 3, and 4 years were 13.1% (95% CI: 9.2-16.8), 18.6% (95% CI: 14.0-23.1), 20.4% (95% CI: 15.4-25.1), and 22.8% (95% CI: 17.2-28.1), respectively. Older age, history of injection drug use, lower CD4 count, medication adherence <95%, and previous protease inhibitor use independently predicted treatment failure.While treatment efficacy was similar to that reported from other resource-limited settings, mortality was higher. Early deaths may be averted by prioritizing second-line therapy for those with lower CD4 counts and by improving treatment adherence support.

Promotion of rapid testing for HIV in primary care (RHIVA2): a cluster-randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Many people with HIV are undiagnosed. Early diagnosis saves lives and reduces onward transmission. We assessed whether an education programme promoting rapid HIV testing in general practice would lead to increased and earlier HIV diagnosis.

METHODS

In this cluster randomised controlled trial in Hackney (London, UK), general practices were randomly assigned (1:1) to offer either opt-out rapid HIV testing to newly registering adults or continue usual care. All practices were invited to take part. Practices were randomised by an independent clinical trials unit statistician with a minimisation program, maintaining allocation concealment. Neither patients nor investigators were masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome was CD4 count at diagnosis. Secondary outcomes were rate of diagnosis, proportion with CD4 count less than 350 cells per μL, and proportion with CD4 count less than 200 cells per μL. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number ISRCTN63473710.

FINDINGS

40 of 45 (89%) general practices agreed to participate: 20 were assigned to the intervention group (44 971 newly registered adult patients) and 20 to the control group (38 464 newly registered adult patients), between April 19, 2010, and Aug 31, 2012. Intervention practices diagnosed 32 people with HIV versus 14 in control practices. Mean CD4 count at diagnosis was 356 cells per μL (SD 254) intervention practices versus 270 (SD 257) in control practices (adjusted difference of square root CD4 count 3·1, 95% CI -1·2 to 7·4; p=0·16);); in a pre-planned sensitivity analysis excluding patients diagnosed via antenatal care, the difference was 6·4 (95% CI, 1·2 to 11·6; p=0·017). Rate of HIV diagnosis was 0·30 (95% CI 0·11 to 0·85) per 10 000 patients per year in intervention practices versus 0·07 (0·02 to 0·20) in control practices (adjusted ratio of geometric means 4·51, 95% CI 1·27 to 16·05; p=0·021). 55% of patients in intervention practices versus 73% in control practices had CD4 count less than 350 cells per μL (risk ratio 0·75, 95% CI 0·53 to 1·07). 28% versus 46% had CD4 count less than 200 cells per μL (0·60, 0·32 to 1·13). All patients diagnosed by rapid testing were successfully transferred into specialist care. No adverse events occurred.

INTERPRETATION

Promotion of opt-out rapid testing in general practice led to increased rate of diagnosis, and might increase early detection, of HIV. We therefore recommend implementation of HIV screening in general practices in areas with high HIV prevalence.

FUNDING

UK Department of Health, NHS City and Hackney.

Determinants of HIV outpatient service utilization: a systematic review

Demands on HIV services are increasing as a consequence of the increased life-expectancy of HIV patients in the highly active antiretroviral therapy era. Understanding the factors that influence utilization of ambulatory HIV services is useful for planning service provision. This study reviewed factors associated with utilization of hospital based HIV out-patient services. Studies reporting person-based utilization rates of HIV-specific outpatient services broken down by patient or healthcare characteristics were eligible for inclusion. The Andersen Behavioral Model was used to organize the information extracted into pre-disposing, enabling and need components. Ten studies were included in the final review. Older age, private insurance, urban residence, lower CD4 counts, a diagnosis of AIDS, or anti-retroviral treatment were associated with higher utilization rates. The results of this review are consistent with existing knowledge regarding HIV patients' use of health services. Little information was identified on the influence of health service characteristics on utilization of out-patient services.

Antiretroviral drug regimens to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV: a review of scientific, program, and policy advances for sub-Saharan Africa

Considerable advances have been made in the effort to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) in sub-Saharan Africa. Clinical trials have demonstrated the efficacy of antiretroviral regimens to interrupt HIV transmission through the antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal periods. Scientific discoveries have been rapidly translated into health policy, bolstered by substantial investment in health infrastructure capable of delivering increasingly complex services. A new scientific agenda is also emerging, one that is focused on the challenges of effective and sustainable program implementation. Finally, global campaigns to "virtually eliminate" pediatric HIV and dramatically reduce HIV-related maternal mortality have mobilized new resources and renewed political will. Each of these developments marks a major step in regional PMTCT efforts; their convergence signals a time of rapid progress in the field, characterized by an increased interdependency between clinical research, program implementation, and policy. In this review, we take stock of recent advances across each of these areas, highlighting the challenges--and opportunities--of improving health services for HIV-infected mothers and their children across the region.

The survival benefits of antiretroviral therapy in South Africa

BACKGROUND

We sought to quantify the survival benefits attributable to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa since 2004.

METHODS

We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications-International model (CEPAC) to simulate 8 cohorts of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients initiating ART each year during 2004-2011. Model inputs included cohort-specific mean CD4(+) T-cell count at ART initiation (112-178 cells/µL), 24-week ART suppressive efficacy (78%), second-line ART availability (2.4% of ART recipients), and cohort-specific 36-month retention rate (55%-71%). CEPAC simulated survival twice for each cohort, once with and once without ART. The sum of the products of per capita survival differences and the total numbers of persons initiating ART for each cohort yielded the total survival benefits.

RESULTS

Lifetime per capita survival benefits ranged from 9.3 to 10.2 life-years across the 8 cohorts. Total estimated population lifetime survival benefit for all persons starting ART during 2004-2011 was 21.7 million life-years, of which 2.8 million life-years (12.7%) had been realized by December 2012. By 2030, benefits reached 17.9 million life-years under current policies, 21.7 million life-years with universal second-line ART, 23.3 million life-years with increased linkage to care of eligible untreated patients, and 28.0 million life-years with both linkage to care and universal second-line ART.

CONCLUSIONS

We found dramatic past and potential future survival benefits attributable to ART, justifying international support of ART rollout in South Africa.

Tracking the progress of HIV: the impact of point-of-care tests on antiretroviral therapy

It is now around 30 years since the discovery of HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. More than 70 million people have been infected in that time and around 35 million have died. The majority of those currently living with HIV/AIDS are in low- and middle-income countries, with sub-Saharan Africa bearing a disproportionate burden of the global disease. In high-income countries, the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has drastically reduced the morbidity and mortality associated with HIV. Patients on ART are now predicted to have near-normal life expectancy and the role of treatment is increasingly recognized in preventing new infections. In low- and middle-income countries, treatment is now more widely available and around half of those who need ART are currently receiving it. Early diagnosis of HIV is essential if ART is to be optimally implemented. Lab-based diagnostics for screening, diagnosis, treatment initiation, and the monitoring of treatment efficacy are critical in managing the disease and reducing the number of new infections each year. The introduction of point-of-care HIV rapid tests has transformed the epidemic, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. For the first time, these point-of-care tests allow for the rapid identification of infected individuals outside the laboratory who can undergo counseling and treatment and, in the case of pregnant women, allow the timely initiation of ART to reduce the risk of vertical transmission. Although survival is markedly improved with ART even in the absence of laboratory monitoring, long-term management of people living with HIV on ART, and their partners, is essential to ensure successful viral suppression. The burden of disease in many resource-poor settings with high HIV prevalence has challenged the ability of local laboratories to effectively monitor those on ART. Diagnostics used to initiate and monitor treatment are now moving out of the laboratory and into the field. These new point-of-care tests for viral load and CD4 are poised to further transform the disease and shift the treatment paradigm in low- and middle-income countries.

Five-year trends in antiretroviral usage and drug costs in HIV-infected children in Thailand

BACKGROUND

As antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs mature, data on drug utilization and costs are needed to assess durability of treatments and inform program planning.

METHODS

Children initiating ART were followed up in an observational cohort in Thailand. Treatment histories from 1999 to 2009 were reviewed. Treatment changes were categorized as: drug substitution (within class), switch across drug class (non nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) to/from protease inhibitor (PI)), and to salvage therapy (dual PI or PI and NNRTI). Antiretroviral drug costs were calculated in 6-month cycles (US$ 2009 prices). Predictors of high drug cost including characteristics at start of ART (baseline), initial regimen, treatment change, and duration on ART were assessed using mixed-effects regression models.

RESULTS

Five hundred seven children initiated ART with a median 54 (interquartile range, 36-72) months of follow-up. Fifty-two percent had a drug substitution, 21% switched across class, and 2% to salvage therapy. When allowing for drug substitution, 78% remained on their initial regimen. Mean drug cost increased from $251 to $428 per child per year in the first and fifth year of therapy, respectively. PI-based and salvage regimens accounted for 16% and 2% of treatments prescribed and 33% and 5% of total costs, respectively. Predictors of high cost include baseline age ≥ 8 years, non nevirapine-based initial regimen, switch across drug class, and to salvage regimen (P < 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

At 5 years, 21% of children switched across drug class and 2% received salvage therapy. The mean drug cost increased by 70%. Access to affordable second- and third-line drugs is essential for the sustainability of treatment programs.

The burden of HIV: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the global and country-level burden of HIV/AIDS relative to 291 other causes of disease burden from 1980 to 2010 using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010) as the vehicle for exploration.

METHODS

HIV/AIDS burden estimates were derived elsewhere as a part of GBD 2010, a comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of 291 diseases and injuries from 1990 to 2010 for 187 countries. In GBD 2010, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are used as the measurement of disease burden. DALY estimates for HIV/AIDS come from UNAIDS' 2012 prevalence and mortality estimates, GBD 2010 disability weights and mortality estimates derived from quality vital registration data.

RESULTS

Despite recent declines in global HIV/AIDS mortality, HIV/AIDS was still the fifth leading cause of global DALYs in 2010. The distribution of HIV/AIDS burden is not equal across demographics and regions. In 2010, HIV/AIDS was ranked as the leading DALY cause for ages 30-44 years in both sexes and for 21 countries that fall into four distinctive blocks: Eastern and Southern Africa, Central Africa, the Caribbean and Thailand. Although a majority of the DALYs caused by HIV/AIDS are in high-burden countries, 20% of the global HIV/AIDS burden in 2010 was in countries where HIV/AIDS did not make the top 10 leading causes of burden.

CONCLUSION

In the midst of a global economic recession, tracking the magnitude of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its importance relative to other diseases and injuries is critical to effectively allocating limited resources and maintaining funding for effective HIV/AIDS interventions and treatments.

Innovative financing for health: what is truly innovative?

Development assistance for health has increased every year between 2000 and 2010, particularly for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, to reach US$26·66 billion in 2010. The continued global economic crisis means that increased external financing from traditional donors is unlikely in the near term. Hence, new funding has to be sought from innovative financing sources to sustain the gains made in global health, to achieve the health Millennium Development Goals, and to address the emerging burden from non-communicable diseases. We use the value chain approach to conceptualise innovative financing. With this framework, we identify three integrated innovative financing mechanisms-GAVI, Global Fund, and UNITAID-that have reached a global scale. These three financing mechanisms have innovated along each step of the innovative finance value chain-namely resource mobilisation, pooling, channelling, resource allocation, and implementation-and integrated these steps to channel large amounts of funding rapidly to low-income and middle-income countries to address HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, and vaccine-preventable diseases. However, resources mobilised from international innovative financing sources are relatively modest compared with donor assistance from traditional sources. Instead, the real innovation has been establishment of new organisational forms as integrated financing mechanisms that link elements of the financing value chain to more effectively and efficiently mobilise, pool, allocate, and channel financial resources to low-income and middle-income countries and to create incentives to improve implementation and performance of national programmes. These mechanisms provide platforms for health funding in the future, especially as efforts to grow innovative financing have faltered. The lessons learnt from these mechanisms can be used to develop and expand innovative financing from international sources to address health needs in low-income and middle-income countries.

Incorporating loss to follow-up in estimates of survival among HIV-infected individuals in sub-Saharan Africa enrolled in antiretroviral therapy programs

BACKGROUND

Measuring the survival of human immunodeficiency virus-infected adult patients enrolled in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs is complicated by short observation periods and loss to follow-up. We synthesized data from treatment cohorts in sub-Saharan Africa to estimate survival over 5 years after initiation of ART.

METHODS

We used data on retention, mortality, and loss to follow-up from 34 cohorts, including a total of 102,306 adult patients from 18 sub-Saharan African countries. These data were augmented by data from 13 sub-Saharan African studies tracking death rates among adult patients who were lost to follow-up (LTFU). We used a Poisson regression model to estimate survival over time, incorporating predicted mortality among LTFU patients.

RESULTS

Across studies, the median CD4(+) cell count at ART initiation was 104 cells/mm(3), 65% of patients were female, and the median age was 37 years. Survival at 1 year and 5 years were estimated to be 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.94) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.36-0.86), respectively, after adjustment for loss to follow-up. The life-years gained by a patient during the 5-year period after starting ART were estimated at 2.1 (95% CI, 1.6-2.3) in the adjusted model, compared with 1.7 (95% CI, 1.1-2.0) if there was 100% mortality among LTFU patients and with 2.4 (1.7-2.7) if there was 0% mortality among LTFU patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Accounting for loss to follow-up produces substantial changes in the estimated life-years gained during the first 5 years of ART receipt.

Cost-effectiveness of early initiation of first-line combination antiretroviral therapy in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Ugandan national guidelines recommend initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) at CD4+ T cell (CD4) count below 350 cell/μl, but the implementation of this is limited due to availability of medication. However, cART initiation at higher CD4 count increases survival, albeit at higher lifetime treatment cost. This analysis evaluates the cost-effectiveness of initiating cART at a CD4 count between 250-350 cell/μl (early) versus <250 cell/μl (delayed).

METHODS

Life expectancy of cART-treated patients, conditional on baseline CD4 count, was modeled based on published literature. First-line cART costs $192 annually, with an additional $113 for patient monitoring. Delaying initiation of cART until the CD4 count falls below 250 cells/μl would incur the cost of the bi-annual CD4 count tests and routine maintenance care at $85 annually. We compared lifetime treatment costs and disability adjusted life-expectancy between early vs. delayed cART for ten baseline CD4 count ranges from 250-350 cell/μl. All costs and benefits were discounted at 3% annually.

RESULTS

Treatment delay varied from 6-18 months. Early cART initiation increased life expectancy from 1.5-3.5 years and averted 1.33-3.10 disability adjusted life years (DALY's) per patient. Lifetime treatment costs were $4,300-$5,248 for early initiation and $3,940-$4,435 for delayed initiation. The cost/DALY averted of the early versus delayed start ranged from $260-$270.

CONCLUSIONS

In HIV-positive patients presenting with CD4 count between 250-350 cells/μl, immediate initiation of cART is a highly cost-effective strategy using the recommended one-time per capita GDP threshold of $490 reported for Uganda. This would constitute an efficient use of scarce health care funds.

Controlling the HIV/AIDS epidemic: current status and global challenges

This review provides an overview of the current status of the global HIV pandemic and strategies to bring it under control. It updates numerous preventive approaches including behavioral interventions, male circumcision (MC), pre- and post-exposure prophylaxis (PREP and PEP), vaccines, and microbicides. The manuscript summarizes current anti-retroviral treatment options, their impact in the western world, and difficulties faced by emerging and resource-limited nations in providing and maintaining appropriate treatment regimens. Current clinical and pre-clinical approaches toward a cure for HIV are described, including new drug compounds that target viral reservoirs and gene therapy approaches aimed at altering susceptibility to HIV infection. Recent progress in vaccine development is summarized, including novel approaches and new discoveries.

Telephone consultation for improving health of people living with or at risk of HIV: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Low cost, effective interventions are needed to deal with the major global burden of HIV/AIDS. Telephone consultation offers the potential to improve health of people living with HIV/AIDS cost-effectively and to reduce the burden on affected people and health systems. The aim of this systematic review was to assess the effectiveness of telephone consultation for HIV/AIDS care.

METHODS

We undertook a comprehensive search of peer-reviewed and grey literature. Two authors independently screened citations, extracted data and assessed the quality of randomized controlled trials which compared telephone interventions with control groups for HIV/AIDS care. Telephone interventions were voice calls with landlines or mobile phones. We present a narrative overview of the results as the obtained trials were highly heterogeneous in design and therefore the data could not be pooled for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

The search yielded 3321 citations. Of these, nine studies involving 1162 participants met the inclusion criteria. The telephone was used for giving HIV test results (one trial) and for delivering behavioural interventions aimed at improving mental health (four trials), reducing sexual transmission risk (one trial), improving medication adherence (two trials) and smoking cessation (one trial). Limited effectiveness of the intervention was found in the trial giving HIV test results, in one trial supporting medication adherence and in one trial for smoking cessation by telephone.

CONCLUSIONS

We found some evidence of the benefits of interventions delivered by telephone for the health of people living with HIV or at risk of HIV. However, only limited conclusions can be drawn as we only found nine studies for five different interventions and they mainly took place in the United States. Nevertheless, given the high penetration of low-cost mobile phones in countries with high HIV endemicity, more evidence is needed on how telephone consultation can aid in the delivery of HIV prevention, treatment and care.

The macroeconomic consequences of renouncing to universal access to antiretroviral treatment for HIV in Africa: a micro-simulation model

AIM

Previous economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs has been mainly focused on the microeconomic consequences of alternative use of resources devoted to the fight against the HIV pandemic. We rather aim at forecasting the consequences of alternative scenarios for the macroeconomic performance of countries.

METHODS

We used a micro-simulation model based on individuals aged 15-49 selected from nationally representative surveys (DHS for Cameroon, Tanzania and Swaziland) to compare alternative scenarios : 1-freezing of ART programs to current levels of access, 2- universal access (scaling up to 100% coverage by 2015, with two variants defining ART eligibility according to previous or current WHO guidelines). We introduced an "artificial" ageing process by programming methods. Individuals could evolve through different health states: HIV negative, HIV positive (with different stages of the syndrome). Scenarios of ART procurement determine this dynamics. The macroeconomic impact is obtained using sample weights that take into account the resulting age-structure of the population in each scenario and modeling of the consequences on total growth of the economy.

RESULTS

Increased levels of ART coverage result in decreasing HIV incidence and related mortality. Universal access to ART has a positive impact on workers' productivity; the evaluations performed for Swaziland and Cameroon show that universal access would imply net cost-savings at the scale of the society, when the full macroeconomic consequences are introduced in the calculations. In Tanzania, ART access programs imply a net cost for the economy, but 70% of costs are covered by GDP gains at the 2034 horizon, even in the extended coverage option promoted by WHO guidelines initiating ART at levels of 350 cc/mm(3) CD4 cell counts.

CONCLUSION

Universal Access ART scaling-up strategies, which are more costly in the short term, remain the best economic choice in the long term. Renouncing or significantly delaying the achievement of this goal, due to "legitimate" short term budgetary constraints would be a misguided choice.

Lives saved from malaria prevention in Africa--evidence to sustain cost-effective gains

Lives saved have become a standard metric to express health benefits across interventions and diseases. Recent estimates of malaria-attributable under-five deaths prevented using the Lives Saved tool (LiST), extrapolating effectiveness estimates from community-randomized trials of scale-up of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in the 1990s, confirm the substantial impact and good cost-effectiveness that ITNs have achieved in high-endemic sub-Saharan Africa. An even higher cost-effectiveness would likely have been found if the modelling had included the additional indirect mortality impact of ITNs on preventing deaths from other common child illnesses, to which malaria contributes as a risk factor.

As conventional ITNs are being replaced by long-lasting insecticidal nets and scale-up is expanded to target universal coverage for full, all-age populations at risk, enhanced transmission reduction may--above certain thresholds--enhance the mortality impact beyond that observed in the trials of the 1990s. On the other hand, lives saved by ITNs might fall if improved malaria case management with artemisinin-based combination therapy averts the deaths that ITNs would otherwise prevent.

Validation and updating of LiST's simple assumption of a universal, fixed coverage-to-mortality-reduction ratio will require enhanced national programme and impact monitoring and evaluation. Key indicators for time trend analysis include malaria-related mortality from population-based surveys and vital registration, vector control and treatment coverage from surveys, and parasitologically-confirmed malaria cases and deaths recorded in health facilities. Indispensable is triangulation with dynamic transmission models, fitted to long-term trend data on vector, parasite and human populations over successive phases of malaria control and elimination.

Sound, locally optimized budget allocation including on monitoring and evaluation priorities will benefit much if policy makers and programme planners use planning tools such as LiST - even when predictions are less certain than often understood. The ultimate success of LiST for supporting malaria prevention may be to prove its linear predictions less and less relevant.

Challenges in implementing HIV laboratory monitoring in resource-constrained settings: how to do more with less

Laboratory monitoring for HIV disease in resource-limited settings has now become one of the key challenges for antiretroviral treatment (ART) access and success, as emphasized by the 2010 revised WHO guidelines for ART in resource-limited settings. Thus, the most common method for initiating ART, and monitoring treatment response in resource-constrained environments is the measurement of CD4 T-cell count. Affordable CD4 T-cell counting has gradually been made possible by using simple, compact and robust, low-cost, new-generation cytometers, operating as single-platform volumetric instruments. Several cost-effective point-of-care CD4 T-cell testing options are also already on the market, in order to improve access to CD4 T-cell monitoring, especially for rural patients, and to reduce loss-to-follow-up of patients. In addition, HIV RNA viral load measurement is becoming increasingly important, mainly for a systematic confirmation of first-line ART failure before switching to second-line treatment to avoid belated as well as premature therapeutic decisions and their potentially negative consequences. Viral load testing should now be considered as the standard of care for therapeutic failure in all resource-limited settings. However, the measurement of HIV viral load remains a centralized marker, carried out in a limited number of reference laboratories. Finally, the costs of second-line ART regimens, rather than the laboratory test costs themselves, currently constitute the primary determinant of the total cost in ART switching. Laboratory monitoring strategies may become more attractive as price negotiations render second-line ART regimens less expensive worldwide.

HIV treatment as prevention: modelling the cost of antiretroviral treatment--state of the art and future directions

Policy discussions about the feasibility of massively scaling up antiretroviral therapy (ART) to reduce HIV transmission and incidence hinge on accurately projecting the cost of such scale-up in comparison to the benefits from reduced HIV incidence and mortality. We review the available literature on modelled estimates of the cost of providing ART to different populations around the world, and suggest alternative methods of characterising cost when modelling several decades into the future. In past economic analyses of ART provision, costs were often assumed to vary by disease stage and treatment regimen, but for treatment as prevention, in particular, most analyses assume a uniform cost per patient. This approach disregards variables that can affect unit cost, such as differences in factor prices (i.e., the prices of supplies and services) and the scale and scope of operations (i.e., the sizes and types of facilities providing ART). We discuss several of these variables, and then present a worked example of a flexible cost function used to determine the effect of scale on the cost of a proposed scale-up of treatment as prevention in South Africa. Adjusting previously estimated costs of universal testing and treatment in South Africa for diseconomies of small scale, i.e., more patients being treated in smaller facilities, adds 42% to the expected future cost of the intervention.

Economic returns to investment in AIDS treatment in low and middle income countries

Since the early 2000s, aid organizations and developing country governments have invested heavily in AIDS treatment. By 2010, more than five million people began receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART)--yet each year, 2.7 million people are becoming newly infected and another two million are dying without ever having received treatment. As the need for treatment grows without commensurate increase in the amount of available resources, it is critical to assess the health and economic gains being realized from increasingly large investments in ART. This study estimates total program costs and compares them with selected economic benefits of ART, for the current cohort of patients whose treatment is cofinanced by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. At end 2011, 3.5 million patients in low and middle income countries will be receiving ART through treatment programs cofinanced by the Global Fund. Using 2009 ART prices and program costs, we estimate that the discounted resource needs required for maintaining this cohort are $14.2 billion for the period 2011-2020. This investment is expected to save 18.5 million life-years and return $12 to $34 billion through increased labor productivity, averted orphan care, and deferred medical treatment for opportunistic infections and end-of-life care. Under alternative assumptions regarding the labor productivity effects of HIV infection, AIDS disease, and ART, the monetary benefits range from 81 percent to 287 percent of program costs over the same period. These results suggest that, in addition to the large health gains generated, the economic benefits of treatment will substantially offset, and likely exceed, program costs within 10 years of investment.