A new method for inferring hidden markov models from noisy time sequences

A blind benchmark of analysis tools to infer kinetic rate constants from single-molecule FRET trajectories

Single-molecule FRET (smFRET) is a versatile technique to study the dynamics and function of biomolecules since it makes nanoscale movements detectable as fluorescence signals. The powerful ability to infer quantitative kinetic information from smFRET data is, however, complicated by experimental limitations. Diverse analysis tools have been developed to overcome these hurdles but a systematic comparison is lacking. Here, we report the results of a blind benchmark study assessing eleven analysis tools used to infer kinetic rate constants from smFRET trajectories. We test them against simulated and experimental data containing the most prominent difficulties encountered in analyzing smFRET experiments: different noise levels, varied model complexity, non-equilibrium dynamics, and kinetic heterogeneity. Our results highlight the current strengths and limitations in inferring kinetic information from smFRET trajectories. In addition, we formulate concrete recommendations and identify key targets for future developments, aimed to advance our understanding of biomolecular dynamics through quantitative experiment-derived models.

A blind benchmark of analysis tools to infer kinetic rate constants from single-molecule FRET trajectories

Single-molecule FRET (smFRET) is a versatile technique to study the dynamics and function of biomolecules since it makes nanoscale movements detectable as fluorescence signals. The powerful ability to infer quantitative kinetic information from smFRET data is, however, complicated by experimental limitations. Diverse analysis tools have been developed to overcome these hurdles but a systematic comparison is lacking. Here, we report the results of a blind benchmark study assessing eleven analysis tools used to infer kinetic rate constants from smFRET trajectories. We test them against simulated and experimental data containing the most prominent difficulties encountered in analyzing smFRET experiments: different noise levels, varied model complexity, non-equilibrium dynamics, and kinetic heterogeneity. Our results highlight the current strengths and limitations in inferring kinetic information from smFRET trajectories. In addition, we formulate concrete recommendations and identify key targets for future developments, aimed to advance our understanding of biomolecular dynamics through quantitative experiment-derived models.

State Aggregations in Markov Chains and Block Models of Networks

We consider state-aggregation schemes for Markov chains from an information-theoretic perspective. Specifically, we consider aggregating the states of a Markov chain such that the mutual information of the aggregated states separated by T time steps is maximized. We show that for T=1 this recovers the maximum-likelihood estimator of the degree-corrected stochastic block model as a particular case, which enables us to explain certain features of the likelihood landscape of this generative network model from a dynamical lens. We further highlight how we can uncover coherent, long-range dynamical modules for which considering a timescale T≫1 is essential. We demonstrate our results using synthetic flows and real-world ocean currents, where we are able to recover the fundamental features of the surface currents of the oceans.

Generalizing HMMs to Continuous Time for Fast Kinetics: Hidden Markov Jump Processes

The hidden Markov model (HMM) is a framework for time series analysis widely applied to single-molecule experiments. Although initially developed for applications outside the natural sciences, the HMM has traditionally been used to interpret signals generated by physical systems, such as single molecules, evolving in a discrete state space observed at discrete time levels dictated by the data acquisition rate. Within the HMM framework, transitions between states are modeled as occurring at the end of each data acquisition period and are described using transition probabilities. Yet, whereas measurements are often performed at discrete time levels in the natural sciences, physical systems evolve in continuous time according to transition rates. It then follows that the modeling assumptions underlying the HMM are justified if the transition rates of a physical process from state to state are small as compared to the data acquisition rate. In other words, HMMs apply to slow kinetics. The problem is, because the transition rates are unknown in principle, it is unclear, a priori, whether the HMM applies to a particular system. For this reason, we must generalize HMMs for physical systems, such as single molecules, because these switch between discrete states in "continuous time". We do so by exploiting recent mathematical tools developed in the context of inferring Markov jump processes and propose the hidden Markov jump process. We explicitly show in what limit the hidden Markov jump process reduces to the HMM. Resolving the discrete time discrepancy of the HMM has clear implications: we no longer need to assume that processes, such as molecular events, must occur on timescales slower than data acquisition and can learn transition rates even if these are on the same timescale or otherwise exceed data acquisition rates.

Extreme Dimensionality Reduction with Quantum Modeling

Effective and efficient forecasting relies on identification of the relevant information contained in past observations-the predictive features-and isolating it from the rest. When the future of a process bears a strong dependence on its behavior far into the past, there are many such features to store, necessitating complex models with extensive memories. Here, we highlight a family of stochastic processes whose minimal classical models must devote unboundedly many bits to tracking the past. For this family, we identify quantum models of equal accuracy that can store all relevant information within a single two-dimensional quantum system (qubit). This represents the ultimate limit of quantum compression and highlights an immense practical advantage of quantum technologies for the forecasting and simulation of complex systems.

DeepFRET, a software for rapid and automated single-molecule FRET data classification using deep learning

Single-molecule Förster Resonance energy transfer (smFRET) is an adaptable method for studying the structure and dynamics of biomolecules. The development of high throughput methodologies and the growth of commercial instrumentation have outpaced the development of rapid, standardized, and automated methodologies to objectively analyze the wealth of produced data. Here we present DeepFRET, an automated, open-source standalone solution based on deep learning, where the only crucial human intervention in transiting from raw microscope images to histograms of biomolecule behavior, is a user-adjustable quality threshold. Integrating standard features of smFRET analysis, DeepFRET consequently outputs the common kinetic information metrics. Its classification accuracy on ground truth data reached >95% outperforming human operators and commonly used threshold, only requiring ~1% of the time. Its precise and rapid operation on real data demonstrates DeepFRET's capacity to objectively quantify biomolecular dynamics and the potential to contribute to benchmarking smFRET for dynamic structural biology.

A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Single Molecule Förster Resonance Energy Transfer

We develop a Bayesian nonparametric framework to analyze single molecule FRET (smFRET) data. This framework, a variation on infinite hidden Markov models, goes beyond traditional hidden Markov analysis, which already treats photon shot noise, in three critical ways: (1) it learns the number of molecular states present in a smFRET time trace (a hallmark of nonparametric approaches), (2) it accounts, simultaneously and self-consistently, for photophysical features of donor and acceptor fluorophores (blinking kinetics, spectral cross-talk, detector quantum efficiency), and (3) it treats background photons. Point 2 is essential in reducing the tendency of nonparametric approaches to overinterpret noisy single molecule time traces and so to estimate states and transition kinetics robust to photophysical artifacts. As a result, with the proposed framework, we obtain accurate estimates of single molecule properties even when the supplied traces are excessively noisy, subject to photoartifacts, and of short duration. We validate our method using synthetic data sets and demonstrate its applicability to real data sets from single molecule experiments on Holliday junctions labeled with conventional fluorescent dyes.

Efficient use of single molecule time traces to resolve kinetic rates, models and uncertainties

Single molecule time traces reveal the time evolution of unsynchronized kinetic systems. Especially single molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (smFRET) provides access to enzymatically important time scales, combined with molecular distance resolution and minimal interference with the sample. Yet the kinetic analysis of smFRET time traces is complicated by experimental shortcomings-such as photo-bleaching and noise. Here we recapitulate the fundamental limits of single molecule fluorescence that render the classic, dwell-time based kinetic analysis unsuitable. In contrast, our Single Molecule Analysis of Complex Kinetic Sequences (SMACKS) considers every data point and combines the information of many short traces in one global kinetic rate model. We demonstrate the potential of SMACKS by resolving the small kinetic effects caused by different ionic strengths in the chaperone protein Hsp90. These results show an unexpected interrelation between conformational dynamics and ATPase activity in Hsp90.

Reliable State Identification and State Transition Detection in Fluorescence Intensity-Based Single-Molecule Förster Resonance Energy-Transfer Data

Single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (smFRET) is a powerful technique to probe biomolecular structure and dynamics. A popular implementation of smFRET consists of recording fluorescence intensity time traces of surface-immobilized, chromophore-tagged molecules. This approach generates large and complex data sets, the analysis of which is to date not standardized. Here, we address a key challenge in smFRET data analysis: the generation of thermodynamic and kinetic models that describe with statistical rigor the behavior of FRET trajectories recorded from surface-tethered biomolecules in terms of the number of FRET states, the corresponding mean FRET values, and the kinetic rates at which they interconvert. For this purpose, we first perform Monte Carlo simulations to generate smFRET trajectories, in which a relevant space of experimental parameters is explored. Then, we provide an account on current strategies to achieve such model selection, as well as a quantitative assessment of their performances. Specifically, we evaluate the performance of each algorithm (change-point analysis, STaSI, HaMMy, vbFRET, and ebFRET) with respect to accuracy, reproducibility, and computing time, which yields a range of algorithm-specific referential benchmarks for various data qualities. Data simulation and analysis were performed with our MATLAB-based multifunctional analysis software for handling smFRET data (MASH-FRET).

Data Driven Models of Short-Term Synaptic Plasticity

Simple models of short term synaptic plasticity that incorporate facilitation and/or depression have been created in abundance for different synapse types and circumstances. The analysis of these models has included computing mutual information between a stochastic input spike train and some sort of representation of the postsynaptic response. While this approach has proven useful in many contexts, for the purpose of determining the type of process underlying a stochastic output train, it ignores the ordering of the responses, leaving an important characterizing feature on the table. In this paper we use a broader class of information measures on output only, and specifically construct hidden Markov models (HMMs) (known as epsilon machines or causal state models) to differentiate between synapse type, and classify the complexity of the process. We find that the machines allow us to differentiate between processes in a way not possible by considering distributions alone. We are also able to understand these differences in terms of the dynamics of the model used to create the output response, bringing the analysis full circle. Hence this technique provides a complimentary description of the synaptic filtering process, and potentially expands the interpretation of future experimental results.

Extreme Quantum Advantage when Simulating Classical Systems with Long-Range Interaction

Classical stochastic processes can be generated by quantum simulators instead of the more standard classical ones, such as hidden Markov models. One reason for using quantum simulators has recently come to the fore: they generally require less memory than their classical counterparts. Here, we examine this quantum advantage for strongly coupled spin systems-in particular, the Dyson one-dimensional Ising spin chain with variable interaction length. We find that the advantage scales with both interaction range and temperature, growing without bound as interaction range increases. In particular, simulating Dyson's original spin chain with the most memory-efficient classical algorithm known requires infinite memory, while a quantum simulator requires only finite memory. Thus, quantum systems can very efficiently simulate strongly coupled one-dimensional classical spin systems.

Single-Molecule Analysis beyond Dwell Times: Demonstration and Assessment in and out of Equilibrium

We present a simple and robust technique for extracting kinetic rate models and thermodynamic quantities from single-molecule time traces. Single-molecule analysis of complex kinetic sequences (SMACKS) is a maximum-likelihood approach that resolves all statistically relevant rates and also their uncertainties. This is achieved by optimizing one global kinetic model based on the complete data set while allowing for experimental variations between individual trajectories. In contrast to dwell-time analysis, which is the current standard method, SMACKS includes every experimental data point, not only dwell times. As a result, it works as well for long trajectories as for an equivalent set of short ones. In addition, the previous systematic overestimation of fast over slow rates is solved. We demonstrate the power of SMACKS on the kinetics of the multidomain protein Hsp90 measured by single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer. Experiments in and out of equilibrium are analyzed and compared to simulations, shedding new light on the role of Hsp90's ATPase function. SMACKS resolves accurate rate models even if states cause indistinguishable signals. Thereby, it pushes the boundaries of single-molecule kinetics beyond those of current methods.

Unraveling the Thousand Word Picture: An Introduction to Super-Resolution Data Analysis

Super-resolution microscopy provides direct insight into fundamental biological processes occurring at length scales smaller than light's diffraction limit. The analysis of data at such scales has brought statistical and machine learning methods into the mainstream. Here we provide a survey of data analysis methods starting from an overview of basic statistical techniques underlying the analysis of super-resolution and, more broadly, imaging data. We subsequently break down the analysis of super-resolution data into four problems: the localization problem, the counting problem, the linking problem, and what we've termed the interpretation problem.

Minimum memory for generating rare events

We classify the rare events of structured, memoryful stochastic processes and use this to analyze sequential and parallel generators for these events. Given a stochastic process, we introduce a method to construct a process whose typical realizations are a given process' rare events. This leads to an expression for the minimum memory required to generate rare events. We then show that the recently discovered classical-quantum ambiguity of simplicity also occurs when comparing the structure of process fluctuations.

Bayesian structural inference for hidden processes

We introduce a Bayesian approach to discovering patterns in structurally complex processes. The proposed method of Bayesian structural inference (BSI) relies on a set of candidate unifilar hidden Markov model (uHMM) topologies for inference of process structure from a data series. We employ a recently developed exact enumeration of topological ε-machines. (A sequel then removes the topological restriction.) This subset of the uHMM topologies has the added benefit that inferred models are guaranteed to be ε-machines, irrespective of estimated transition probabilities. Properties of ε-machines and uHMMs allow for the derivation of analytic expressions for estimating transition probabilities, inferring start states, and comparing the posterior probability of candidate model topologies, despite process internal structure being only indirectly present in data. We demonstrate BSI's effectiveness in estimating a process's randomness, as reflected by the Shannon entropy rate, and its structure, as quantified by the statistical complexity. We also compare using the posterior distribution over candidate models and the single, maximum a posteriori model for point estimation and show that the former more accurately reflects uncertainty in estimated values. We apply BSI to in-class examples of finite- and infinite-order Markov processes, as well to an out-of-class, infinite-state hidden process.

BOBA FRET: bootstrap-based analysis of single-molecule FRET data

Time-binned single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (smFRET) experiments with surface-tethered nucleic acids or proteins permit to follow folding and catalysis of single molecules in real-time. Due to the intrinsically low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in smFRET time traces, research over the past years has focused on the development of new methods to extract discrete states (conformations) from noisy data. However, limited observation time typically leads to pronounced cross-sample variability, i.e., single molecules display differences in the relative population of states and the corresponding conversion rates. Quantification of cross-sample variability is necessary to perform statistical testing in order to assess whether changes observed in response to an experimental parameter (metal ion concentration, the presence of a ligand, etc.) are significant. However, such hypothesis testing has been disregarded to date, precluding robust biological interpretation. Here, we address this problem by a bootstrap-based approach to estimate the experimental variability. Simulated time traces are presented to assess the robustness of the algorithm in conjunction with approaches commonly used in thermodynamic and kinetic analysis of time-binned smFRET data. Furthermore, a pair of functionally important sequences derived from the self-cleaving group II intron Sc.ai5γ (d3'EBS1*/IBS1*) is used as a model system. Through statistical hypothesis testing, divalent metal ions are shown to have a statistically significant effect on both thermodynamic and kinetic aspects of their interaction. The Matlab source code used for analysis (bootstrap-based analysis of smFRET data, BOBA FRET), as well as a graphical user interface, is available via http://www.aci.uzh.ch/rna/.

Information-theoretic lower bound on energy cost of stochastic computation

Physical systems are often simulated using a stochastic computation where different final states result from identical initial states. Here, we derive the minimum energy cost of simulating a data sequence of a general physical system by stochastic computation. We show that the cost is proportional to the difference between two information-theoretic measures of complexity of the data—the statistical complexity and the predictive information . We derive the difference as the amount of information erased during the computation. Finally, we illustrate the physics of information by implementing the stochastic computation as a Gedanken experiment with a Szilard-type engine. The results create a new link between thermodynamics, information theory and complexity.

Advances in quantitative FRET-based methods for studying nucleic acids

Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) is a powerful tool for monitoring molecular distances and interactions at the nanoscale level. The strong dependence of transfer efficiency on probe separation makes FRET perfectly suited for "on/off" experiments. To use FRET to obtain quantitative distances and three-dimensional structures, however, is more challenging. This review summarises recent studies and technological advances that have improved FRET as a quantitative molecular ruler in nucleic acid systems, both at the ensemble and at the single-molecule levels.