Scaling effects and spatio-temporal multilevel dynamics in epileptic seizures

FateNet: an integration of dynamical systems and deep learning for cell fate prediction

MOTIVATION

Understanding cellular decision-making, particularly its timing and impact on the biological system such as tissue health and function, is a fundamental challenge in biology and medicine. Existing methods for inferring fate decisions and cellular state dynamics from single-cell RNA sequencing data lack precision regarding decision points and broader tissue implications. Addressing this gap, we present FateNet, a computational approach integrating dynamical systems theory and deep learning to probe the cell decision-making process using scRNA-seq data.

RESULTS

By leveraging information about normal forms and scaling behavior near bifurcations common to many dynamical systems, FateNet predicts cell decision occurrence with higher accuracy than conventional methods and offers qualitative insights into the new state of the biological system. Also, through in-silico perturbation experiments, FateNet identifies key genes and pathways governing the differentiation process in hematopoiesis. Validated using different scRNA-seq data, FateNet emerges as a user-friendly and valuable tool for predicting critical points in biological processes, providing insights into complex trajectories.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

github.com/ThomasMBury/fatenet.

The critical dynamics of hippocampal seizures

Epilepsy is defined by the abrupt emergence of harmful seizures, but the nature of these regime shifts remains enigmatic. From the perspective of dynamical systems theory, such critical transitions occur upon inconspicuous perturbations in highly interconnected systems and can be modeled as mathematical bifurcations between alternative regimes. The predictability of critical transitions represents a major challenge, but the theory predicts the appearance of subtle dynamical signatures on the verge of instability. Whether such dynamical signatures can be measured before impending seizures remains uncertain. Here, we verified that predictions on bifurcations applied to the onset of hippocampal seizures, providing concordant results from in silico modeling, optogenetics experiments in male mice and intracranial EEG recordings in human patients with epilepsy. Leveraging pharmacological control over neural excitability, we showed that the boundary between physiological excitability and seizures can be inferred from dynamical signatures passively recorded or actively probed in hippocampal circuits. Of importance for the design of future neurotechnologies, active probing surpassed passive recording to decode underlying levels of neural excitability, notably when assessed from a network of propagating neural responses. Our findings provide a promising approach for predicting and preventing seizures, based on a sound understanding of their dynamics.

Critical dynamics and interictal epileptiform discharge: a comparative analysis with respect to tracking seizure risk cycles

Epilepsy is characterized by recurrent, unprovoked seizures. Accurate prediction of seizure occurrence has long been a clinical goal since this would allow to optimize patient treatment, prevent injuries due to seizures, and alleviate the patient burden of unpredictability. Advances in implantable electroencephalographic (EEG) devices, allowing for long-term interictal EEG recordings, have facilitated major progress in this field. Recently, it has been discovered that interictal brain activity demonstrates circadian and multi-dien cycles that are strongly aligned, or phase locked, with seizure risk. Thus, cyclical brain activity patterns have been used to forecast seizures. However, in the effort to develop a clinically useful EEG based seizure forecasting system, challenges remain. Firstly, multiple EEG features demonstrate cyclical patterns, but it remains unclear which feature is best suited for predicting seizures. Secondly, the technology for long-term EEG recording is currently limited in both spatial and temporal sampling resolution. In this study, we compare five established EEG metrics:synchrony, spatial correlation, temporal correlation, signal variance which have been motivated from critical dynamics theory, and interictal epileptiform discharge (IED) which are a traditional marker of seizure propensity. We assess their effectiveness in detecting 24-h and seizure cycles as well as their robustness under spatial and temporal subsampling. Analyzing intracranial EEG data from 23 patients, we report that all examined features exhibit 24-h cycles. Spatial correlation, signal variance, and synchrony showed the highest phase locking with seizures, while IED rates were the lowest. Notably, spatial and temporal correlation were also found to be highly correlated to each other, as were signal variance and IED-suggesting some features may reflect similar aspects of cortical dynamics, whereas others provide complementary information. All features proved robust under subsampling, indicating that the dynamic properties of interictal activity evolve slowly and are not confined to specific brain regions. Our results may aid future translational research by assisting in design and testing of EEG based seizure forecasting systems.

Autonomic biosignals, seizure detection, and forecasting

Wearable devices have attracted significant attention in epilepsy research in recent years for their potential to enhance patient care through improved seizure monitoring and forecasting. This narrative review presents a detailed overview of the current clinical state of the art while addressing how devices that assess autonomic nervous system (ANS) function reflect seizures and central nervous system (CNS) state changes. This includes a description of the interactions between the CNS and the ANS, including physiological and epilepsy-related changes affecting their dynamics. We first discuss technical aspects of measuring autonomic biosignals and considerations for using ANS sensors in clinical practice. We then review recent seizure detection and seizure forecasting studies, highlighting their performance and capability for seizure detection and forecasting using devices measuring ANS biomarkers. Finally, we address the field's challenges and provide an outlook for future developments.

Systematic analysis and optimization of early warning signals for critical transitions using distribution data

Abrupt shifts between alternative regimes occur in complex systems, from cell regulation to brain functions to ecosystems. Several model-free early warning signals (EWS) have been proposed to detect impending transitions, but failure or poor performance in some systems have called for better investigation of their generic applicability. Notably, there are still ongoing debates whether such signals can be successfully extracted from data in particular from biological experiments. In this work, we systematically investigate properties and performance of dynamical EWS in different deteriorating conditions, and we propose an optimized combination to trigger warnings as early as possible, eventually verified on experimental data from microbiological populations. Our results explain discrepancies observed in the literature between warning signs extracted from simulated models and from real data, provide guidance for EWS selection based on desired systems and suggest an optimized composite indicator to alert for impending critical transitions using distribution data.

Epileptic seizure prediction in intracranial EEG using critical nucleus based on phase transition

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Epilepsy is the second most prevalent neurological disorder of brain activity, affecting about seventy million people, or nearly 1% of the world population. Epileptic seizures prediction is extremely important for improving the epileptic patients' life. This paper proposed a novel method to predict seizures by detecting the critical transition of brain activities with intracranial EEG (iEEG) signals.

METHODS

This article used three key measures of fluctuation, correlation and percolation to quantify pre-ictal states of epilepsy. Based on these measures, a ritical nucleus of iEEG signals was constructed and a composite index was introduced to detect the likelihood of impending seizures. In addition, we analyzed the dynamical mechanism of seizures at the tipping point from the perspective of spatial diffusion and temporal fluctuation.

RESULTS

The empirical results supported that the seizures are self-initiated via a critical transition in pre-ictal state and showed that the proposed model can achieve a good prediction performance. The average accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and false-positive rate (FPR) attain 87.96%, 82.93%, 89.33% and 0.11/h respectively. The results also suggest that the temporal and spatial factors have strong synergistic effect on triggering seizures. For those seizures consistent with critical transition, the predictive performance was greatly improved with sensitivity up to 96.88%.

CONCLUSIONS

This article proposed a critical nucleus model combined with spatial and temporal features of iEEG signals capable of seizure prediction. The proposed model brings insight from phase transition into epileptic iEEG signals analysis and quantifies the transition of the state to predict epileptic seizures with high accuracy.

Deep learning for early warning signals of tipping points

Early warning signals (EWS) of tipping points are vital to anticipate system collapse or other sudden shifts. However, existing generic early warning indicators designed to work across all systems do not provide information on the state that lies beyond the tipping point. Our results show how deep learning algorithms (artificial intelligence) can provide EWS of tipping points in real-world systems. The algorithm predicts certain qualitative aspects of the new state, and is also more sensitive and generates fewer false positives than generic indicators. We use theory about system behavior near tipping points so that the algorithm does not require data from the study system but instead learns from a universe of possible models.

Many natural systems exhibit tipping points where slowly changing environmental conditions spark a sudden shift to a new and sometimes very different state. As the tipping point is approached, the dynamics of complex and varied systems simplify down to a limited number of possible “normal forms” that determine qualitative aspects of the new state that lies beyond the tipping point, such as whether it will oscillate or be stable. In several of those forms, indicators like increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance provide generic early warning signals (EWS) of the tipping point by detecting how dynamics slow down near the transition. But they do not predict the nature of the new state. Here we develop a deep learning algorithm that provides EWS in systems it was not explicitly trained on, by exploiting information about normal forms and scaling behavior of dynamics near tipping points that are common to many dynamical systems. The algorithm provides EWS in 268 empirical and model time series from ecology, thermoacoustics, climatology, and epidemiology with much greater sensitivity and specificity than generic EWS. It can also predict the normal form that characterizes the oncoming tipping point, thus providing qualitative information on certain aspects of the new state. Such approaches can help humans better prepare for, or avoid, undesirable state transitions. The algorithm also illustrates how a universe of possible models can be mined to recognize naturally occurring tipping points.

Canard solutions in neural mass models: consequences on critical regimes

Mathematical models at multiple temporal and spatial scales can unveil the fundamental mechanisms of critical transitions in brain activities. Neural mass models (NMMs) consider the average temporal dynamics of interconnected neuronal subpopulations without explicitly representing the underlying cellular activity. The mesoscopic level offered by the neural mass formulation has been used to model electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings and to investigate various cerebral mechanisms, such as the generation of physiological and pathological brain activities. In this work, we consider a NMM widely accepted in the context of epilepsy, which includes four interacting neuronal subpopulations with different synaptic kinetics. Due to the resulting three-time-scale structure, the model yields complex oscillations of relaxation and bursting types. By applying the principles of geometric singular perturbation theory, we unveil the existence of the canard solutions and detail how they organize the complex oscillations and excitability properties of the model. In particular, we show that boundaries between pathological epileptic discharges and physiological background activity are determined by the canard solutions. Finally we report the existence of canard-mediated small-amplitude frequency-specific oscillations in simulated local field potentials for decreased inhibition conditions. Interestingly, such oscillations are actually observed in intracerebral EEG signals recorded in epileptic patients during pre-ictal periods, close to seizure onsets.

The role of interictal discharges in ictogenesis - A dynamical perspective

Interictal epileptiform discharge (IED) is a traditional hallmark of epileptic tissue that is generated by the synchronous activity of a population of neurons. Interictal epileptiform discharges represent a heterogeneous group of pathological activities that differ in shape, duration, spatiotemporal distribution, underlying cellular and network mechanisms, and their relationship to seizure genesis. The exact role of IEDs in epilepsy is still not well understood, and there remains a persistent dichotomy about the impact on IEDs on seizures. Proseizure, antiseizure, and no impact on ictogenesis have all been described in previous studies. In this article, we review the existing knowledge on the role of interictal discharges in seizure genesis, and we discuss how dynamical approaches to ictogenesis can explain the existing dichotomy about the multifaceted role of IEDs in ictogenesis. This article is part of the Special Issue "NEWroscience 2018".

Assessing criticality in pre-seizure single-neuron activity of human epileptic cortex

Epileptic seizures are characterized by abnormal and excessive neural activity, where cortical network dynamics seem to become unstable. However, most of the time, during seizure-free periods, cortex of epilepsy patients shows perfectly stable dynamics. This raises the question of how recurring instability can arise in the light of this stable default state. In this work, we examine two potential scenarios of seizure generation: (i) epileptic cortical areas might generally operate closer to instability, which would make epilepsy patients generally more susceptible to seizures, or (ii) epileptic cortical areas might drift systematically towards instability before seizure onset. We analyzed single-unit spike recordings from both the epileptogenic (focal) and the nonfocal cortical hemispheres of 20 epilepsy patients. We quantified the distance to instability in the framework of criticality, using a novel estimator, which enables an unbiased inference from a small set of recorded neurons. Surprisingly, we found no evidence for either scenario: Neither did focal areas generally operate closer to instability, nor were seizures preceded by a drift towards instability. In fact, our results from both pre-seizure and seizure-free intervals suggest that despite epilepsy, human cortex operates in the stable, slightly subcritical regime, just like cortex of other healthy mammalians.

Criticality, Connectivity, and Neural Disorder: A Multifaceted Approach to Neural Computation

It has been hypothesized that the brain optimizes its capacity for computation by self-organizing to a critical point. The dynamical state of criticality is achieved by striking a balance such that activity can effectively spread through the network without overwhelming it and is commonly identified in neuronal networks by observing the behavior of cascades of network activity termed "neuronal avalanches." The dynamic activity that occurs in neuronal networks is closely intertwined with how the elements of the network are connected and how they influence each other's functional activity. In this review, we highlight how studying criticality with a broad perspective that integrates concepts from physics, experimental and theoretical neuroscience, and computer science can provide a greater understanding of the mechanisms that drive networks to criticality and how their disruption may manifest in different disorders. First, integrating graph theory into experimental studies on criticality, as is becoming more common in theoretical and modeling studies, would provide insight into the kinds of network structures that support criticality in networks of biological neurons. Furthermore, plasticity mechanisms play a crucial role in shaping these neural structures, both in terms of homeostatic maintenance and learning. Both network structures and plasticity have been studied fairly extensively in theoretical models, but much work remains to bridge the gap between theoretical and experimental findings. Finally, information theoretical approaches can tie in more concrete evidence of a network's computational capabilities. Approaching neural dynamics with all these facets in mind has the potential to provide a greater understanding of what goes wrong in neural disorders. Criticality analysis therefore holds potential to identify disruptions to healthy dynamics, granted that robust methods and approaches are considered.

Noise amplification precedes extreme epileptic events on human EEG

Extreme events are rare and sudden abnormal deviations of the system's behavior from a typical state. Statistical analysis reveals that if the time series contains extreme events, its distribution has a heavy tail. In dynamical systems, extreme events often occur due to developing instability preceded by noise amplification. Here, we apply this theory to analyze generalized epileptic seizures in the human brain. First, we demonstrate that the time series of electroencephalogram (EEG) spectral power in a frequency band of 1-5 Hz obeys a heavy-tailed distribution, confirming the presence of extreme events. Second, we report that noise on EEG signals gradually increases before the seizure onset. Thus, we hypothesize that generalized epileptic seizures in humans are the extreme events emerging from instability accompanied by preictal noise amplification similar to other dynamical systems.

Neural mass modeling of slow-fast dynamics of seizure initiation and abortion

Epilepsy is a dynamic and complex neurological disease affecting about 1% of the worldwide population, among which 30% of the patients are drug-resistant. Epilepsy is characterized by recurrent episodes of paroxysmal neural discharges (the so-called seizures), which manifest themselves through a large-amplitude rhythmic activity observed in depth-EEG recordings, in particular in local field potentials (LFPs). The signature characterizing the transition to seizures involves complex oscillatory patterns, which could serve as a marker to prevent seizure initiation by triggering appropriate therapeutic neurostimulation methods. To investigate such protocols, neurophysiological lumped-parameter models at the mesoscopic scale, namely neural mass models, are powerful tools that not only mimic the LFP signals but also give insights on the neural mechanisms related to different stages of seizures. Here, we analyze the multiple time-scale dynamics of a neural mass model and explain the underlying structure of the complex oscillations observed before seizure initiation. We investigate population-specific effects of the stimulation and the dependence of stimulation parameters on synaptic timescales. In particular, we show that intermediate stimulation frequencies (>20 Hz) can abort seizures if the timescale difference is pronounced. Those results have the potential in the design of therapeutic brain stimulation protocols based on the neurophysiological properties of tissue.

Why Brain Criticality Is Clinically Relevant: A Scoping Review

The past 25 years have seen a strong increase in the number of publications related to criticality in different areas of neuroscience. The potential of criticality to explain various brain properties, including optimal information processing, has made it an increasingly exciting area of investigation for neuroscientists. Recent reviews on this topic, sometimes termed brain criticality, make brief mention of clinical applications of these findings to several neurological disorders such as epilepsy, neurodegenerative disease, and neonatal hypoxia. Other clinicallyrelevant domains - including anesthesia, sleep medicine, developmental-behavioral pediatrics, and psychiatry - are seldom discussed in review papers of brain criticality. Thorough assessments of these application areas and their relevance for clinicians have also yet to be published. In this scoping review, studies of brain criticality involving human data of all ages are evaluated for their current and future clinical relevance. To make the results of these studies understandable to a more clinical audience, a review of the key concepts behind criticality (e.g., phase transitions, long-range temporal correlation, self-organized criticality, power laws, branching processes) precedes the discussion of human clinical studies. Open questions and forthcoming areas of investigation are also considered.

A taxonomy of seizure dynamotypes

Seizures are a disruption of normal brain activity present across a vast range of species and conditions. We introduce an organizing principle that leads to the first objective Taxonomy of Seizure Dynamics (TSD) based on bifurcation theory. The ‘dynamotype’ of a seizure is the dynamic composition that defines its observable characteristics, including how it starts, evolves and ends. Analyzing over 2000 focal-onset seizures from multiple centers, we find evidence of all 16 dynamotypes predicted in TSD. We demonstrate that patients’ dynamotypes evolve during their lifetime and display complex but systematic variations including hierarchy (certain types are more common), non-bijectivity (a patient may display multiple types) and pairing preference (multiple types may occur during one seizure). TSD provides a way to stratify patients in complement to present clinical classifications, a language to describe the most critical features of seizure dynamics, and a framework to guide future research focused on dynamical properties.

Epileptic seizures have been recognized for centuries. But it was only in the 1930s that it was realized that seizures are the result of out-of-control electrical activity in the brain. By placing electrodes on the scalp, doctors can identify when and where in the brain a seizure begins. But they cannot tell much about how the seizure behaves, that is, how it starts, stops or spreads to other areas. This makes it difficult to control and prevent seizures. It also helps explain why almost a third of patients with epilepsy continue to have seizures despite being on medication.

Saggio, Crisp et al. have now approached this problem from a new angle using methods adapted from physics and engineering. In these fields, “dynamics research” has been used with great success to predict and control the behavior of complex systems like electrical power grids. Saggio, Crisp et al. reasoned that applying the same approach to the brain would reveal the dynamics of seizures and that such information could then be used to categorize seizures into groups with similar properties. This would in effect create for seizures what the periodic table is for the elements.

Applying the dynamics research method to seizure data from more than a hundred patients from across the world revealed 16 types of seizure dynamics. These “dynamotypes” had distinct characteristics. Some were more common than others, and some tended to occur together. Individual patients showed different dynamotypes over time. By constructing a way to classify seizures based on the relationships between the dynamotypes, Saggio, Crisp et al. provide a new tool for clinicians and researchers studying epilepsy.

Previous clinical tools have focused on the physical symptoms of a seizure (referred to as the phenotype) or its potential genetic causes (genotype). The current approach complements these tools by adding the dynamotype: how seizures start, spread and stop in the brain. This approach has the potential to lead to new branches of research and better understanding and treatment of seizures.

Critical slowing down as a biomarker for seizure susceptibility

The human brain has the capacity to rapidly change state, and in epilepsy these state changes can be catastrophic, resulting in loss of consciousness, injury and even death. Theoretical interpretations considering the brain as a dynamical system suggest that prior to a seizure, recorded brain signals may exhibit critical slowing down, a warning signal preceding many critical transitions in dynamical systems. Using long-term intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) recordings from fourteen patients with focal epilepsy, we monitored key signatures of critical slowing down prior to seizures. The metrics used to detect critical slowing down fluctuated over temporally long scales (hours to days), longer than would be detectable in standard clinical evaluation settings. Seizure risk was associated with a combination of these signals together with epileptiform discharges. These results provide strong validation of theoretical models and demonstrate that critical slowing down is a reliable indicator that could be used in seizure forecasting algorithms.

Critical slowing (associated with increased variance and autocorrelation) can precede critical state transitions. Here, the authors show critical slowing can be used as a marker in seizure forecasting algorithms.

Antiepileptic drugs induce subcritical dynamics in human cortical networks

Cortical network functioning critically depends on finely tuned interactions to afford neuronal activity propagation over long distances while avoiding runaway excitation. This importance is highlighted by the pathological consequences and impaired performance resulting from aberrant network excitability in psychiatric and neurological diseases, such as epilepsy. Theory and experiment suggest that the control of activity propagation by network interactions can be adequately described by a branching process. This hypothesis is partially supported by strong evidence for balanced spatiotemporal dynamics observed in the cerebral cortex; however, evidence of a causal relationship between network interactions and cortex activity, as predicted by a branching process, is missing in humans. Here this cause-effect relationship is tested by monitoring cortex activity under systematic pharmacological reduction of cortical network interactions with antiepileptic drugs. This study reports that cortical activity cascades, presented by the propagating patterns of epileptic spikes, as well as temporal correlations decline precisely as predicted for a branching process. The results provide a missing link to the branching process theory of cortical network function with implications for understanding the foundations of cortical excitability and its monitoring in conditions like epilepsy.

Seizure prediction and intervention

Epilepsy treatment is challenging due to a lack of essential diagnostic tools, including methods for reliable seizure detection in the ambulatory setting, to assess seizure risk over time and to monitor treatment efficacy. This lack of objective diagnostics constitutes a significant barrier to better treatments, raises methodological concerns about the antiseizure medication evaluation process and, to patients, is a main issue contributing to the disease burden. Recent years have seen rapid progress towards better diagnostics that meet these needs of epilepsy patients and clinicians. Availability of comprehensive data and the rise of more powerful computational analysis methods have driven progress in this area. Here, we provide an overview on data- and theory-driven approaches aimed at identifying methods to reliably detect and forecast seizures as well as to monitor brain excitability and treatment efficacy in epilepsy. We provide a particular account on neural criticality, the hypothesis that cortical networks may be poised in a critical state at the boundary between different types of dynamics, and discuss its role in informing diagnostics to track cortex excitability and seizure risk in recent experiments. With the further expansion of digitalization in medicine, tele-medicine and long-term, ambulatory monitoring, these computationally based methods may gain more relevance in epilepsy in the future. This article is part of the special issue entitled 'New Epilepsy Therapies for the 21st Century - From Antiseizure Drugs to Prevention, Modification and Cure of Epilepsy'.

No evidence for critical slowing down prior to human epileptic seizures

There is an ongoing debate whether generic early warning signals for critical transitions exist that can be applied across diverse systems. The human epileptic brain is often considered as a prototypical system, given the devastating and, at times, even life-threatening nature of the extreme event epileptic seizure. More than three decades of international effort has successfully identified predictors of imminent seizures. However, the suitability of typically applied early warning indicators for critical slowing down, namely, variance and lag-1 autocorrelation, for indexing seizure susceptibility is still controversially discussed. Here, we investigated long-term, multichannel recordings of brain dynamics from 28 subjects with epilepsy. Using a surrogate-based evaluation procedure of sensitivity and specificity of time-resolved estimates of early warning indicators, we found no evidence for critical slowing down prior to 105 epileptic seizures.

Identifying signal-dependent information about the preictal state: A comparison across ECoG, EEG and EKG using deep learning

Background

The inability to reliably assess seizure risk is a major burden for epilepsy patients and prevents developing better treatments. Recent advances have paved the way for increasingly accurate seizure preictal state detection algorithms, primarily using electrocorticography (ECoG). To develop seizure forecasting for broad clinical and ambulatory use, however, less complex and invasive modalities are needed. Algorithms using scalp electroencephalography (EEG) and electrocardiography (EKG) have also achieved better than chance performance. But it remains unknown how much preictal information is in ECoG versus modalities amenable to everyday use – such as EKG and single channel EEG - and how to optimally extract that preictal information for seizure prediction.

Methods

We apply deep learning - a powerful method to extract information from complex data - on a large epilepsy data set containing multi-day, simultaneous recordings of EKG, ECoG, and EEG, using a variety of feature sets. We use the relative performance of our algorithms to compare the preictal information contained in each modality.

Results

We find that single-channel EKG contains a comparable amount of preictal information as scalp EEG with up to 21 channels and that preictal information is best extracted not with standard heart rate measures, but from the power spectral density. We report that preictal information is not preferentially contained in EEG or ECoG channels within the seizure onset zone.

Conclusion

Collectively, these insights may help to devise future prospective, minimally invasive long-term epilepsy monitoring trials with single-channel EKG as a particularly promising modality.

Oscillatory Patterns of Phase Cone Formations near to Epileptic Spikes Derived from 256-Channel Scalp EEG Data

Our objective was to determine if there are any distinguishable phase cone clustering patterns present near to epileptic spikes. These phase cones arise from episodic phase shifts due to the coordinated activity of cortical neurons at or near to state transitions and can be extracted from the high-density scalp EEG recordings. The phase cone clustering activities in the low gamma band (30-50 Hz) and in the ripple band (80-150 Hz) were extracted from the analytic phase after taking Hilbert transform of the 256-channel high density (dEEG) data of adult patients. We used three subjects in this study. Spatiotemporal contour plots of the unwrapped analytic phase with 1.0 ms intervals were constructed using a montage layout of 256 electrode positions. Stable phase cone patterns were selected based on the criteria that the sign of the spatial gradient did not change for at least three consecutive time samples and the frame velocity was within the range of propagation velocities of cortical axons. These plots exhibited dynamical formation of phase cones which were higher in the seizure area as compared with the nearby surrounding brain areas. Spatiotemporal oscillatory patterns were also visible during ±5 sec period from the location of the spike. These results suggest that the phase cone activity might be useful for noninvasive localization of epileptic sites and also for examining the cortical neurodynamics near to epileptic spikes.

EEG classification for motor imagery BCI using phase-only features extracted by independent component analysis

The accurate classification of the electroencephalography (EEG) signals is the most important task towards the development of a reliable motor imagery brain-computer interface (MI-BCI) system. In this study, we utilized a publically available BCI Competition-IV 2008 dataset IIa. This study address to the binary classification problem of the motor imagery EEG data by using a sigmoid activation function-based extreme learning machines (ELM). We proposed a novel method of extracting the features from the EEG signals by first applying the independent component analysis (ICA) on the time series data and transforming the ICA time series data into Fourier domain and then extract the phase information from the Fourier spectrum. This phase information was further used to calculate the maximized cross-correlation connectivity matrix. The upper diagonal of this matrix was then vectorized and it serves as the basic feature for the ELM classification framework. By using the phase-only features we achieved 97.80% (p <; 0.0022) nested cross-validated classification accuracy. In addition, this process is relatively computationally inexpensive. Thus, it can be an excellent candidate for the motor imagery BCI applications.

Seizure Forecasting from Idea to Reality. Outcomes of the My Seizure Gauge Epilepsy Innovation Institute Workshop

The Epilepsy Innovation Institute (Ei²) is a new research program of the Epilepsy Foundation designed to be an innovation incubator for epilepsy. Ei² research areas are selected based on community surveys that ask people impacted by epilepsy what they would like researchers to focus on. In their 2016 survey, unpredictability was selected as a top issue regardless of seizure frequency or severity. In response to this need, Ei² launched the My Seizure Gauge challenge, with the end goal of creating a personalized seizure advisory system device. Prior to moving forward, Ei² convened a diverse group of stakeholders from people impacted by epilepsy and clinicians, to device developers and data scientists, to basic science researchers and regulators, for a state of the science assessment on seizure forecasting. From the discussions, it was clear that we are at an exciting crossroads. With the advances in bioengineering, we can utilize digital markers, wearables, and biosensors as parameters for a seizure-forecasting algorithm. There are also over a thousand individuals who have been implanted with ambulatory intracranial EEG recording devices. Pairing up peripheral measurements to brain states could identify new relationships and insights. Another key component is the heterogeneity of the relationships indicating that pooling findings across groups is suboptimal, and that data collection will need to be done on longer time scales to allow for individualization of potential seizure-forecasting algorithms.

Multi-scale visual analysis of time-varying electrocorticography data via clustering of brain regions

Background

There exists a need for effective and easy-to-use software tools supporting the analysis of complex Electrocorticography (ECoG) data. Understanding how epileptic seizures develop or identifying diagnostic indicators for neurological diseases require the in-depth analysis of neural activity data from ECoG. Such data is multi-scale and is of high spatio-temporal resolution. Comprehensive analysis of this data should be supported by interactive visual analysis methods that allow a scientist to understand functional patterns at varying levels of granularity and comprehend its time-varying behavior.

Results

We introduce a novel multi-scale visual analysis system, ECoG ClusterFlow, for the detailed exploration of ECoG data. Our system detects and visualizes dynamic high-level structures, such as communities, derived from the time-varying connectivity network. The system supports two major views: 1) an overview summarizing the evolution of clusters over time and 2) an electrode view using hierarchical glyph-based design to visualize the propagation of clusters in their spatial, anatomical context. We present case studies that were performed in collaboration with neuroscientists and neurosurgeons using simulated and recorded epileptic seizure data to demonstrate our system’s effectiveness.

Conclusion

ECoG ClusterFlow supports the comparison of spatio-temporal patterns for specific time intervals and allows a user to utilize various clustering algorithms. Neuroscientists can identify the site of seizure genesis and its spatial progression during various the stages of a seizure. Our system serves as a fast and powerful means for the generation of preliminary hypotheses that can be used as a basis for subsequent application of rigorous statistical methods, with the ultimate goal being the clinical treatment of epileptogenic zones.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12859-017-1633-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004-2008 US Housing Market Bubble

The Subprime Bubble preceding the Subprime Crisis of 2008 was fueled by risky lending practices, manifesting in the form of a large abrupt increase in the proportion of subprime mortgages issued in the US. This event also coincided with critical slowing down signals associated with instability, which served as evidence of a regime shift or phase transition in the US housing market. Here, we show that the US housing market underwent a regime shift between alternate stable states consistent with the observed critical slowing down signals. We modeled this regime shift on a universal transition path and validated the model by estimating when the bubble burst. Additionally, this model reveals loose monetary policy to be a plausible cause of the phase transition, implying that the bubble might have been deflatable by a timely tightening of monetary policy.

Seizures Start without Common Signatures of Critical Transition

Complex dynamical systems may exhibit sudden autonomous changes from one state to another. Such changes that occur rapidly in comparison to the regular dynamics have been termed critical transitions. Examples of such phenomena can be found in many complex systems: changes in climate and ocean circulation, changes in wildlife populations, financial crashes, as well as in medical conditions like asthma attacks and depression. It has been recognized that critical transitions, even if they arise in completely different contexts and situations, share several common attributes and also generic early-warning signals that indicate that a critical transition is approaching. In the present study, we review briefly the general characteristics that have been observed in systems prior to critical transitions and apply these general indicators to nearly 300 epileptic seizures collected from human subjects using invasive EEG. Only in about 8% of the patients was evidence of critical transitions found. In the remaining majority of cases no early warning signals that behaved consistently prior to seizures were observed. These results do not rule out the possibility of critical transitions to seizure but point to limited relevance of their early warning signals in the context of human epilepsy observed using intracranial EEG recordings.

Neurological Diseases from a Systems Medicine Point of View

The difficulty to understand, diagnose, and treat neurological disorders stems from the great complexity of the central nervous system on different levels of physiological granularity. The individual components, their interactions, and dynamics involved in brain development and function can be represented as molecular, cellular, or functional networks, where diseases are perturbations of networks. These networks can become a useful research tool in investigating neurological disorders if they are properly tailored to reflect corresponding mechanisms. Here, we review approaches to construct networks specific for neurological disorders describing disease-related pathology on different scales: the molecular, cellular, and brain level. We also briefly discuss cross-scale network analysis as a necessary integrator of these scales.

Predictability of critical transitions

Critical transitions in multistable systems have been discussed as models for a variety of phenomena ranging from the extinctions of species to socioeconomic changes and climate transitions between ice ages and warm ages. From bifurcation theory we can expect certain critical transitions to be preceded by a decreased recovery from external perturbations. The consequences of this critical slowing down have been observed as an increase in variance and autocorrelation prior to the transition. However, especially in the presence of noise, it is not clear whether these changes in observation variables are statistically relevant such that they could be used as indicators for critical transitions. In this contribution we investigate the predictability of critical transitions in conceptual models. We study the quadratic integrate-and-fire model and the van der Pol model under the influence of external noise. We focus especially on the statistical analysis of the success of predictions and the overall predictability of the system. The performance of different indicator variables turns out to be dependent on the specific model under study and the conditions of accessing it. Furthermore, we study the influence of the magnitude of transitions on the predictive performance.

Noise-induced precursors of state transitions in the stochastic Wilson-cowan model

The Wilson-Cowan neural field equations describe the dynamical behavior of a 1-D continuum of excitatory and inhibitory cortical neural aggregates, using a pair of coupled integro-differential equations. Here we use bifurcation theory and small-noise linear stochastics to study the range of a phase transitions-sudden qualitative changes in the state of a dynamical system emerging from a bifurcation-accessible to the Wilson-Cowan network. Specifically, we examine saddle-node, Hopf, Turing, and Turing-Hopf instabilities. We introduce stochasticity by adding small-amplitude spatio-temporal white noise, and analyze the resulting subthreshold fluctuations using an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck linearization. This analysis predicts divergent changes in correlation and spectral characteristics of neural activity during close approach to bifurcation from below. We validate these theoretical predictions using numerical simulations. The results demonstrate the role of noise in the emergence of critically slowed precursors in both space and time, and suggest that these early-warning signals are a universal feature of a neural system close to bifurcation. In particular, these precursor signals are likely to have neurobiological significance as early warnings of impending state change in the cortex. We support this claim with an analysis of the in vitro local field potentials recorded from slices of mouse-brain tissue. We show that in the period leading up to emergence of spontaneous seizure-like events, the mouse field potentials show a characteristic spectral focusing toward lower frequencies concomitant with a growth in fluctuation variance, consistent with critical slowing near a bifurcation point. This observation of biological criticality has clear implications regarding the feasibility of seizure prediction.

Critical slowing down governs the transition to neuron spiking

Many complex systems have been found to exhibit critical transitions, or so-called tipping points, which are sudden changes to a qualitatively different system state. These changes can profoundly impact the functioning of a system ranging from controlled state switching to a catastrophic break-down; signals that predict critical transitions are therefore highly desirable. To this end, research efforts have focused on utilizing qualitative changes in markers related to a system’s tendency to recover more slowly from a perturbation the closer it gets to the transition—a phenomenon called critical slowing down. The recently studied scaling of critical slowing down offers a refined path to understand critical transitions: to identify the transition mechanism and improve transition prediction using scaling laws.

Here, we outline and apply this strategy for the first time in a real-world system by studying the transition to spiking in neurons of the mammalian cortex. The dynamical system approach has identified two robust mechanisms for the transition from subthreshold activity to spiking, saddle-node and Hopf bifurcation. Although theory provides precise predictions on signatures of critical slowing down near the bifurcation to spiking, quantitative experimental evidence has been lacking. Using whole-cell patch-clamp recordings from pyramidal neurons and fast-spiking interneurons, we show that 1) the transition to spiking dynamically corresponds to a critical transition exhibiting slowing down, 2) the scaling laws suggest a saddle-node bifurcation governing slowing down, and 3) these precise scaling laws can be used to predict the bifurcation point from a limited window of observation. To our knowledge this is the first report of scaling laws of critical slowing down in an experiment. They present a missing link for a broad class of neuroscience modeling and suggest improved estimation of tipping points by incorporating scaling laws of critical slowing down as a strategy applicable to other complex systems.

Neurons efficiently convey information by being able to switch rapidly between two different states: quiescence and spiking. Such sudden shifts to a qualitatively different state are observed in many complex systems; the often dramatic consequences of these tipping points for diverse fields such as economics, ecology, and the brain have spurred interest to better understand their transition mechanisms and predict their sudden occurrences. By studying the transition from neuronal quiescence to spiking, we show that the quantitative scaling laws for critical slowing down, i.e., a system’s tendency to recover more slowly from perturbations upon approaching its transition point, inform about the underlying bifurcation mechanism and can be used to improve the prediction of a system’s tipping point.

Critical transitions in chronic disease: transferring concepts from ecology to systems medicine

Ecosystems and biological systems are known to be inherently complex and to exhibit nonlinear dynamics. Diseases such as microbiome dysregulation or depression can be seen as complex systems as well and were shown to exhibit patterns of nonlinearity in their response to perturbations. These nonlinearities can be revealed by a sudden shift in system states, for instance from health to disease. The identification and characterization of early warning signals which could predict upcoming critical transitions is of primordial interest as prevention of disease onset is a major aim in health care. In this review, we focus on recent evidence for critical transitions in diseases and discuss the potential of such studies for therapeutic applications.

Information dissipation as an early-warning signal for the Lehman Brothers collapse in financial time series

In financial markets, participants locally optimize their profit which can result in a globally unstable state leading to a catastrophic change. The largest crash in the past decades is the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers which was followed by a trust-based crisis between banks due to high-risk trading in complex products. We introduce information dissipation length (IDL) as a leading indicator of global instability of dynamical systems based on the transmission of Shannon information, and apply it to the time series of USD and EUR interest rate swaps (IRS). We find in both markets that the IDL steadily increases toward the bankruptcy, then peaks at the time of bankruptcy, and decreases afterwards. Previously introduced indicators such as ‘critical slowing down' do not provide a clear leading indicator. Our results suggest that the IDL may be used as an early-warning signal for critical transitions even in the absence of a predictive model.

Temporal features of spike trains in the moth antennal lobe revealed by a comparative time-frequency analysis

The discrimination of complex sensory stimuli in a noisy environment is an immense computational task. Sensory systems often encode stimulus features in a spatiotemporal fashion through the complex firing patterns of individual neurons. To identify these temporal features, we have developed an analysis that allows the comparison of statistically significant features of spike trains localized over multiple scales of time-frequency resolution. Our approach provides an original way to utilize the discrete wavelet transform to process instantaneous rate functions derived from spike trains, and select relevant wavelet coefficients through statistical analysis. Our method uncovered localized features within olfactory projection neuron (PN) responses in the moth antennal lobe coding for the presence of an odor mixture and the concentration of single component odorants, but not for compound identities. We found that odor mixtures evoked earlier responses in biphasic response type PNs compared to single components, which led to differences in the instantaneous firing rate functions with their signal power spread across multiple frequency bands (ranging from 0 to 45.71 Hz) during a time window immediately preceding behavioral response latencies observed in insects. Odor concentrations were coded in excited response type PNs both in low frequency band differences (2.86 to 5.71 Hz) during the stimulus and in the odor trace after stimulus offset in low (0 to 2.86 Hz) and high (22.86 to 45.71 Hz) frequency bands. These high frequency differences in both types of PNs could have particular relevance for recruiting cellular activity in higher brain centers such as mushroom body Kenyon cells. In contrast, neurons in the specialized pheromone-responsive area of the moth antennal lobe exhibited few stimulus-dependent differences in temporal response features. These results provide interesting insights on early insect olfactory processing and introduce a novel comparative approach for spike train analysis applicable to a variety of neuronal data sets.

Tuning synchronization of integrate-and-fire oscillators through mobility

We analyze the emergence of synchronization in a population of moving integrate-and-fire oscillators. Oscillators, while moving on a plane, interact with their nearest neighbor upon firing time. We discover a nonmonotonic dependence of the synchronization time on the velocity of the agents. Moreover, we find that mechanisms that drive synchronization are different for different dynamical regimes. We report the extreme situation where an interplay between the time scales involved in the dynamical processes completely inhibits the achievement of a coherent state. We also provide estimators for the transitions between the different regimes.

Anticipating critical transitions

Tipping points in complex systems may imply risks of unwanted collapse, but also opportunities for positive change. Our capacity to navigate such risks and opportunities can be boosted by combining emerging insights from two unconnected fields of research. One line of work is revealing fundamental architectural features that may cause ecological networks, financial markets, and other complex systems to have tipping points. Another field of research is uncovering generic empirical indicators of the proximity to such critical thresholds. Although sudden shifts in complex systems will inevitably continue to surprise us, work at the crossroads of these emerging fields offers new approaches for anticipating critical transitions.