Applicability of age-based hunting regulations for African leopards

Leopard density and the ecological and anthropogenic factors influencing density in a mixed-use landscape in the Western Cape, South Africa

Large carnivores face numerous threats, including habitat loss and fragmentation, direct killing, and prey depletion, leading to significant global range and population declines. Despite such threats, leopards (Panthera pardus) persist outside protected areas throughout most of their range, occupying diverse habitat types and land uses, including peri-urban and rural areas. Understanding of leopard population dynamics in mixed-use landscapes is limited, especially in South Africa, where the majority of leopard research has focused on protected areas. We use spatially explicit capture-recapture models to estimate leopard density across a mixed-use landscape of protected areas, farmland, and urban areas in the Overberg region of the Western Cape, South Africa. Data from 86 paired camera stations provided 221 independent captures of 25 leopards at 50 camera trap stations with a population density estimate of 0.64 leopards per 100 km2 (95% CI: 0.55-0.73). Elevation, terrain ruggedness, and vegetation productivity were important drivers of leopard density in the landscape, being highest on elevated remnants of natural land outside of protected areas. These results are similar to previous research findings in other parts of the Western Cape, where high-lying natural vegetation was shown to serve as both a refuge and a corridor for leopard movement in otherwise transformed landscapes. Given the low leopard density and the prevalence of transformed land intermixed with patches of more suitable leopard habitat, prioritising and preserving connectivity for leopards is vital in this shared landscape. Ecological corridors should be developed in partnership with private landowners through an inclusive and multifaceted conservation strategy which also incorporates monitoring of and rapid mitigation of emerging threats to leopards.

Anthropogenic edge effects and aging errors by hunters can affect the sustainability of lion trophy hunting

Many large predator populations are in decline globally with significant implications for ecosystem integrity and function. Understanding the drivers of their decline is required to adequately mitigate threats. Trophy hunting is often cited as a tool to conserve large mammal populations but may also have negative impacts if not well managed. Here we use a spatially implicit, individual based model to investigate the threats posed to African lion populations by poorly managed trophy hunting and additive anthropogenic mortality such as poaching and retaliatory killing. We confirm the results of previous studies that show that lion trophy hunting can be sustainable if only older male lions are hunted, but demonstrate that hunting becomes unsustainable when populations are exposed to additional anthropogenic mortality, as is the case for most free ranging populations. We show that edge effects can be a critical determinant of population viability and populations that encompass well protected source areas are more robust than those without. Finally, errors in aging of hunted lions by professional trophy hunters may undermine the sustainability of the age-based quota setting strategies that are now widely used to manage lion trophy hunting. The effect of aging errors was most detrimental to population persistence in the ≥ 6 and ≥ 7 year-old age thresholds that are frequently used to define suitably aged lions for hunting. Resource managers should limit offtakes to older demographics and additionally take a precautionary approach when setting hunting quotas for large carnivore populations that are affected by other sources of anthropogenic mortality, such as bush-meat poaching, retaliatory killing and problem animal control.

Leopard Panthera pardus camera trap surveys in the arid environments of northern Namibia

In Namibia, leopards (Panthera pardus) are widely distributed, used commercially as trophy animals and are often persecuted for perceived or real predation on livestock and valuable game species outside protected areas. Therefore, leopard populations living in protected areas might be important source populations and for maintaining connectivity. Little data on their population sizes and densities are available from the northern part of the country, particularly from protected areas. Here, we estimated leopard densities using a spatial capture–recapture approach in northern Namibia: (i) the Khaudum National Park (KNP) in north-east Namibia with an annual average rainfall of 450 mm and (ii) the Lower Hoanib River (LHR) in north-west Namibia with an annual average rainfall of 25 mm. With an effort of 2430 and 2074 camera trap nights in the KNP and LHR, respectively, 11 adult female and six adult male leopards were identified in the KNP, whilst only one adult female leopard was detected once in the LHR. For the KNP, a maximum likelihood approach (using the package SECR) revealed a density estimate of 2.74 leopards/100 km2, whereas a Bayesian approach (using the package SPACECAP) revealed a density estimate of 1.83 leopards/100 km2. For the LHR, no density estimate could be determined and it is suggested that the leopard density in such an arid environment is low. These are the first leopard density estimates based on camera trap surveys provided for these protected areas and thus of importance for further monitoring programs to understand leopard population dynamics. We discuss our findings with current habitat changes and conservation measures in both study areas.

The Javan Leopard Panthera pardus melas (Cuvier, 1809) (Mammalia: Carnivora: Felidae) in West Java, Indonesia: estimating population density and occupancy

The Javan Leopard is endemic to the Indonesian island of Java and has been classified as Endangered. Reliable information about its population status, distribution, and density is lacking but are essential to guide conservation efforts and provide a benchmark for management decisions. Our study represents the first empirical density and occupancy estimates for the Leopard in West Java and provides baseline data for this region. We used camera trap data collected from February 2009 to October 2018 in six study areas comprising a sampling effort of 10,955 camera trap days in a total area of 793.5 km2. We identified 55 individual Leopards in these areas and estimated Leopard density using spatially explicit capture-recapture. Population density estimates range from 4.9 individuals/100 km2 in Gunung Guntur-Papandayan Nature Reserve to 16.04 individuals/100 km2 in Gunung Gede Pangrango National Park. Latter is among the globally highest Leopard densities. Based on detection data, we modelled single-season Leopard occupancy using three sampling covariates and eight site covariates. Modelling revealed that the two covariates forest cover and presence of Wild Boar are the strongest predictors for Leopard occupancy in our study areas. We recommend assessing and monitoring Leopard distribution, density and occupancy in other areas of Java and emphasize that a landscape approach for conservation of the Javan Leopard is imperative.

Troubled spots: Human impacts constrain the density of an apex predator inside protected areas

Effective conservation requires understanding the processes that determine population outcomes. Too often, we assume that protected areas conserve wild populations despite evidence that they frequently fail to do so. Without large-scale studies, however, we cannot determine what relationships are the product of localized conditions versus general patterns that inform conservation more broadly. Leopards' (Panthera pardus) basic ecology is well studied but little research has investigated anthropogenic effects on leopard density at broad scales. We investigated the drivers of leopard density among 27 diverse protected areas in northeastern South Africa to understand what conditions facilitate abundant populations. We formulated 10 working hypotheses that considered the relative influence of bottom-up biological factors and top-down anthropogenic factors on leopard density. Using camera-trap survey data, we fit a multi-session spatial capture-recapture model with inhomogenous density for each hypothesis and evaluated support using an information theoretic approach. The four supported hypotheses indicated that leopard density is primarily limited by human impacts, but that habitat suitability and management conditions also matter. The proportion of camera stations that recorded domestic animals, a proxy for the extent of human impacts and protected area effectiveness, was the only predictor variable present in all four supported models. Protected areas are the cornerstone of large felid conservation, but only when the human-wildlife interface is well managed and protected areas shelter wildlife populations from anthropogenic impacts. To ensure the long-term abundance of large carnivore populations, reserve managers should recognize the ineffectiveness of "paper parks" and promote contiguous networks of protected areas that offer leopards and other large mammal populations greater space and reduced human impacts.

Individual Identification of Large Felids in Field Studies: Common Methods, Challenges, and Implications for Conservation Science

Large felids represent some of the most threatened large mammals on Earth, critical for both tourism economies and ecosystem function. Most populations are in a state of decline, and their monitoring and enumeration is therefore critical for conservation. This typically rests on the accurate identification of individuals within their populations. We review the most common and current survey methods used in individual identification studies of large felid ecology (body mass > 25 kg). Remote camera trap photography is the most extensively used method to identify leopards, snow leopards, jaguars, tigers, and cheetahs which feature conspicuous and easily identifiable coat patterning. Direct photographic surveys and genetic sampling are commonly used for species that do not feature easily identifiable coat patterning such as lions. We also discuss the accompanying challenges encountered in several field studies, best practices that can help increase the precision and accuracy of identification and provide generalised ratings for the common survey methods used for individual identification.

Leopard and spotted hyena densities in the Lake Mburo National Park, southwestern Uganda

Robust measures of animal densities are necessary for effective wildlife management. Leopards (Panthera pardus) and spotted hyenas (Crocuta Crocuta) are higher order predators that are data deficient across much of their East African range and in Uganda, excepting for one peer-reviewed study on hyenas, there are presently no credible population estimates for these species. A lack of information on the population status and even baseline densities of these species has ramifications as leopards are drawcards for the photo-tourism industry, and along with hyenas are often responsible for livestock depredations from pastoralist communities. Leopards are also sometimes hunted for sport. Establishing baseline density estimates for these species is urgently needed not only for population monitoring purposes, but in the design of sustainable management offtakes, and in assessing certain conservation interventions like financial compensation for livestock depredation. Accordingly, we ran a single-season survey of these carnivores in the Lake Mburo National Park of south-western Uganda using 60 remote camera traps distributed in a paired format at 30 locations. We analysed hyena and leopard detections under a Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) modelling framework to estimate their densities. This small national park (370 km²) is surrounded by Bahima pastoralist communities with high densities of cattle on the park edge (with regular park incursions). Leopard densities were estimated at 6.31 individuals/100 km² (posterior SD = 1.47, 95% CI [3.75-9.20]), and spotted hyena densities were 10.99 individuals/100 km², but with wide confidence intervals (posterior SD = 3.35, 95% CI [5.63-17.37]). Leopard and spotted hyena abundance within the boundaries of the national park were 24.87 (posterior SD 7.78) and 39.07 individuals (posterior = SD 13.51) respectively. Leopard densities were on the middle end of SECR studies published in the peer-reviewed literature over the last 5 years while spotted hyena densities were some of the first reported in the literature using SECR, and similar to a study in Botswana which reported 11.80 spotted hyenas/100 km². Densities were not noticeably lower at the park edge, and in the southwest of our study site, despite repeated cattle incursions into these areas. We postulate that the relatively high densities of both species in the region could be owed to impala Aepyceros melampus densities ranging from 16.6-25.6 impala/km². Another, potential explanatory variable (albeit a speculative one) is the absence of interspecific competition from African lions (Panthera leo), which became functionally extinct (there is only one male lion present) in the park nearly two decades ago. This study provides the first robust population estimate of these species anywhere in Uganda and suggests leopards and spotted hyenas continue to persist in the highly modified landscape of Lake Mburo National Park.

Leopard Panthera pardus density and survival in an ecosystem with depressed abundance of prey and dominant competitors

The leopard Panthera pardus is in range-wide decline, and many populations are highly threatened. Prey depletion is a major cause of global carnivore declines, but the response of leopard survival and density to this threat is unclear: by reducing the density of a dominant competitor (the lion Panthera leo) prey depletion could create both costs and benefits for subordinate competitors. We used capture–recapture models fitted to data from a 7-year camera-trap study in Kafue National Park, Zambia, to obtain baseline estimates of leopard population density and sex-specific apparent survival rates. Kafue is affected by prey depletion, and densities of large herbivores preferred by lions have declined more than the densities of smaller herbivores preferred by leopards. Lion density is consequently low. Estimates of leopard density were comparable to ecosystems with more intensive protection and favourable prey densities. However, our study site is located in an area with good ecological conditions and high levels of protection relative to other portions of the ecosystem, so extrapolating our estimates across the Park or into adjacent Game Management Areas would not be valid. Our results show that leopard density and survival within north-central Kafue remain good despite prey depletion, perhaps because (1) prey depletion has had weaker effects on preferred leopard prey compared to larger prey preferred by lions, and (2) the density of dominant competitors is consequently low. Our results show that the effects of prey depletion can be more complex than uniform decline of all large carnivore species, and warrant further investigation.

A baited-camera trapping method for estimating the size and sex structure of African leopard (Panthera pardus) populations

Amongst Africa's large predators, leopards (Panthera pardus) are arguably the most elusive carnivore. Information on the species is lacking in most areas where they are found. This is because leopards are largely solitary, cryptically coloured and nocturnal making the collection of accurate population data difficult. As a result, population estimates from methods such as spoor and scat counts are less reliable. This is a concern because accurate census data are essential for informed policy and management of threatened species such as leopards. Camera trapping has emerged as a powerful tool for inventorying and monitoring carnivores in their natural habitats. Pictures from camera traps allow unambiguous individual identification making these data useful for generating accurate population estimates from capture-recapture analysis. Conventionally, camera trapping uses two cameras to record passing subjects at unbaited stations but the design usually suffers from low capture rates. Here we report on the Baited-Camera Trapping (BCT) method which uses bait and single cameras at sampling stations to survey free ranging leopards. Using bait to improve the quality of data collected in population studies is not a new strategy but arranging baits and cameras according to the BCT method is a novel approach to achieving this goal. We show that the method can significantly enhance capture rates, improve individual identification and reduce cost when sampling leopards. Furthermore, the method allows easy sex determination and collection of morphometric data from camera trap photographs. The BCT method has been tested in semi-arid savannas and we give recommendations for application in other environments and species.•

The BCT method uses baits and single cameras to record leopards at sampling stations.

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The provision of a leading pole enables easier individual identification and sex determination.

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The method can be used to investigate multiple population monitoring questions which enhances its cost-benefit ratio.

The Un-Common Leopard: presence, distribution and abundance in Gallies and Murree Forest Division, Northern Pakistan

The leopard Panthera pardus is thought to be sparsely distributed across Pakistan and there is limited understanding of the demographic structure and distribution of the species in this country. We conducted a study, from April to July 2017, and, from March to June 2018, in the northern Pakistan region to establish the presence and distribution of leopards, mindful at the outset of their abundance in that region. The presence of leopards was confirmed in the Swat, Dir and Margalla Hills region. The leopard population in Gallies and Murree Forest Division was preliminarily assessed via camera-trapping. As a result, a total of 63 potential areas of leopard population were identified initially. The leopard was photo captured at 27 locations (hotspots) with 34 capture events yielding 195 images over the course of 3,022 active trap-nights. Camera trap images were examined to identify leopard individuals using their rosette patterns on both the left and right flanks and the dorsal side of the tail. Ultimately, 15 leopard individuals were identified during the first survey period of the study and four individuals were recaptured in the second survey period, together with three new individuals. The detection probability of individual leopards from MARK varied from 0.10 and 0.20 with a population size (preliminarily estimated to be 16–25 (SE = 3.18) in 2107 and 7–13 (SE = 1.87) in 2018. This gave a density of 4.5 to 9.5 leopards/100 km2, respectively. A home range of various individual leopards was found to extend from the Gallies Reserved Forest to the extended corridors of Guzara Forest. In general, this study suggests that the Guzara Forest is crucially important for the conservation of leopards in the region as this area allows them extended movement while searching for food and mates.

Measuring body dimensions of leopards (Panthera pardus) from camera trap photographs

Measurement of body dimensions of carnivores usually requires the chemical immobilization of subjects. This process can be dangerous, costly and potentially harmful to the target individuals. Development of an alternative, inexpensive, and non-invasive method therefore warrants attention. The objective of this study was to test whether it is possible to obtain accurate measurements of body dimensions of leopards from camera trap photographs. A total of 10 leopards (Panthera pardus) were captured and collared at Malilangwe Wildlife Reserve, Zimbabwe from May 7 to June 20, 2017 and four body measurements namely shoulder height, head-to-tail, body, and tail length were recorded. The same measurements were taken from 101 scaled photographs of the leopards recorded during a baited-camera trapping (BCT) survey conducted from July 1 to October 22, 2017 and differences from the actual measurements calculated. Generalized Linear Mixed Effects Models were used to determine the effect of type of body measurement, photographic scale, posture, and sex on the accuracy of the photograph-based measurements. Type of body measurement and posture had a significant influence on accuracy. Least squares means of absolute differences between actual and photographic measurements showed that body length in the level back-straight forelimb-parallel tail posture was measured most accurately from photographs (2.0 cm, 95% CI [1.5–2.7 cm]), while head-to-tail dimensions in the arched back-bent forelimb-parallel tail posture were least accurate (8.3 cm, 95% CI [6.1–11.2 cm]). Using the BCT design, we conclude that it is possible to collect accurate morphometric data of leopards from camera trap photographs. Repeat measurements over time can provide researchers with vital body size and growth rate information which may help improve the monitoring and management of species of conservation concern, such as leopards.

Lions and leopards coexist without spatial, temporal or demographic effects of interspecific competition

Although interspecific competition plays a principal role in shaping species behaviour and demography, little is known about the population-level outcomes of competition between large carnivores, and the mechanisms that facilitate coexistence. We conducted a multilandscape analysis of two widely distributed, threatened large carnivore competitors to offer insight into coexistence strategies and assist with species-level conservation. We evaluated how interference competition affects occupancy, temporal activity and population density of a dominant competitor, the lion (Panthera leo), and its subordinate competitor, the leopard (Panthera pardus). We collected camera-trap data over 3 years in 10 study sites covering 5,070 km² . We used multispecies occupancy modelling to assess spatial responses in varying environmental and prey conditions and competitor presence, and examined temporal overlap and the relationship between lion and leopard densities across sites and years. Results showed that both lion and leopard occupancy was independent of-rather than conditional on-their competitor's presence across all environmental covariates. Marginal occupancy probability for leopard was higher in areas with more bushy, "hideable" habitat, human (tourist) activity and topographic ruggedness, whereas lion occupancy decreased with increasing hideable habitat and increased with higher abundance of very large prey. Temporal overlap was high between carnivores, and there was no detectable relationship between species densities. Lions pose a threat to the survival of individual leopards, but they exerted no tractable influence on leopard spatial or temporal dynamics. Furthermore, lions did not appear to suppress leopard populations, suggesting that intraguild competitors can coexist in the same areas without population decline. Aligned conservation strategies that promote functioning ecosystems, rather than target individual species, are therefore advised to achieve cost- and space-effective conservation.

Population dynamics and threats to an apex predator outside protected areas: implications for carnivore management

Data on the population dynamics and threats to large carnivores are vital to conservation efforts, but these are hampered by a paucity of studies. For some species, such as the leopard (Panthera pardus), there is such uncertainty in population trends that leopard trophy hunting has been banned in South Africa since 2016 while further data on leopard abundance are collected. We present one of the first assessments of leopard population dynamics, and identify the key threats to a population of leopards outside of protected areas in South Africa. We conducted a long-term trap survey between 2012 and 2016 in the Soutpansberg Mountains, and drew on a previous estimate of leopard population density for the region from 2008. In 24 sampling periods, we estimated the population density and assessed population structure. We fitted eight leopards with GPS collars to assess threats to the population. Leopard population density declined by 66%, from 10.73 to 3.65 leopards per 100 km² in 2008 and 2016, respectively. Collared leopards had a high mortality rate, which appeared to be due to illegal human activity. While improving the management of trophy hunting is important, we suggest that mitigating human-wildlife conflict could have a bigger impact on carnivore conservation.

Low leopard populations in protected areas of Maputaland: a consequence of poaching, habitat condition, abundance of prey, and a top predator

Identifying the primary causes affecting population densities and distribution of flagship species are necessary in developing sustainable management strategies for large carnivore conservation. We modeled drivers of spatial density of the common leopard (Panthera pardus) using a spatially explicit capture-recapture-Bayesian approach to understand their population dynamics in the Maputaland Conservation Unit, South Africa. We camera-trapped leopards in four protected areas (PAs) of varying sizes and disturbance levels covering 198 camera stations. Ours is the first study to explore the effects of poaching level, abundance of prey species (small, medium, and large), competitors (lion Panthera leo and spotted hyenas Crocuta crocuta), and habitat on the spatial distribution of common leopard density. Twenty-six male and 41 female leopards were individually identified and estimated leopard density ranged from 1.6 ± 0.62/100 km² (smallest PA-Ndumo) to 8.4 ± 1.03/100 km² (largest PA-western shores). Although dry forest thickets and plantation habitats largely represented the western shores, the plantation areas had extremely low leopard density compared to native forest. We found that leopard density increased in areas when low poaching levels/no poaching was recorded in dry forest thickets and with high abundance of medium-sized prey, but decreased with increasing abundance of lion. Because local leopard populations are vulnerable to extinction, particularly in smaller PAs, the long-term sustainability of leopard populations depend on developing appropriate management strategies that consider a combination of multiple factors to maintain their optimal habitats.

Trophy Hunting and Sustainability: Temporal Dynamics in Trophy Quality and Harvesting Patterns of Wild Herbivores in a Tropical Semi-Arid Savanna Ecosystem

The selective nature of trophy hunting may cause changes in desirable phenotypic traits in harvested species. A decline in trophy size of preferred species may reduce hunting destination competitiveness thus compromising the sustainability of trophy hunting as a conservation tool. We explored the trophy quality and trends in harvesting patterns (i.e., 2004-2015) of Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer), African elephant (Loxodonta africana), greater kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) and sable (Hippotragus niger) in Matetsi Safari Area, northwest Zimbabwe. We used long-term data on horn and tusk size, age, quota size allocation and offtake levels of selected species. To analyse the effect of year, area and age on the trophy size, quota size and offtake levels, we used linear mixed models. One sample t-test was used to compare observed trophy size with Safari Club International (SCI) minimum score. Trophy sizes for Cape buffalo and African elephant were below the SCI minimum score. Greater kudu trophy sizes were within the minimum score threshold whereas sable trophy sizes were above the SCI minimum score between 2004 and 2015. Age at harvest for Cape buffalo, kudu and sable increased whilst that of elephant remained constant between 2004 and 2015. Quota size allocated for buffalo and the corresponding offtake levels declined over time. Offtake levels of African elephant and Greater kudu declined whilst the quota size did not change between 2004 and 2015. The quota size for sable increased whilst the offtake levels fluctuated without changing for the period 2004-2015. The trophy size and harvesting patterns in these species pose a conservation and management dilemma on the sustainability of trophy hunting in this area. We recommend: (1) temporal and spatial rotational resting of hunting areas to create refuge to improve trophy quality and maintenance of genetic diversity, and (2) introduction of variable trophy fee pricing system based on trophy size.

Effects of a protection gradient on carnivore density and survival: an example with leopards in the Luangwa valley, Zambia

Human activities on the periphery of protected areas can limit carnivore populations, but measurements of the strength of such effects are limited, largely due to difficulties of obtaining precise data on population density and survival. We measured how density and survival rates of a previously unstudied leopard population varied across a gradient of protection and evaluated which anthropogenic activities accounted for observed patterns. Insights into this generalist's response to human encroachment are likely to identify limiting factors for other sympatric carnivore species. Motion‐sensitive cameras were deployed systematically in adjacent, similarly sized, and ecologically similar study areas inside and outside Zambia's South Luangwa National Park (SLNP) from 2012 to 2014. The sites differed primarily in the degree of human impacts: SLNP is strictly protected, but the adjacent area was subject to human encroachment and bushmeat poaching throughout the study, and trophy hunting of leopards prior to 2012. We used photographic capture histories with robust design capture–recapture models to estimate population size and sex‐specific survival rates for the two areas. Leopard density within SLNP was 67% greater than in the adjacent area, but annual survival rates and sex ratios did not detectably differ between the sites. Prior research indicated that wire‐snare occurrence was 5.2 times greater in the areas adjacent to the park. These results suggest that the low density of leopards on the periphery of SLNP is better explained by prey depletion, rather than by direct anthropogenic mortality. Long‐term spatial data from concurrent lion studies suggested that interspecific competition did not produce the observed patterns. Large carnivore populations are often limited by human activities, but science‐based management policies depend on methods to rigorously and quantitatively assess threats to populations of concern. Using noninvasive robust design capture–recapture methods, we systematically assessed leopard density and survival across a protection gradient and identified bushmeat poaching as the likely limiting factor. This approach is of broad value to evaluate the impacts of anthropogenic activities on carnivore populations that are distributed across gradients of protection.

Leopard (Panthera pardus) status, distribution, and the research efforts across its range

The leopard's (Panthera pardus) broad geographic range, remarkable adaptability, and secretive nature have contributed to a misconception that this species might not be severely threatened across its range. We find that not only are several subspecies and regional populations critically endangered but also the overall range loss is greater than the average for terrestrial large carnivores. To assess the leopard's status, we compile 6,000 records at 2,500 locations from over 1,300 sources on its historic (post 1750) and current distribution. We map the species across Africa and Asia, delineating areas where the species is confirmed present, is possibly present, is possibly extinct or is almost certainly extinct. The leopard now occupies 25-37% of its historic range, but this obscures important differences between subspecies. Of the nine recognized subspecies, three (P. p. pardus, fusca, and saxicolor) account for 97% of the leopard's extant range while another three (P. p. orientalis, nimr, and japonensis) have each lost as much as 98% of their historic range. Isolation, small patch sizes, and few remaining patches further threaten the six subspecies that each have less than 100,000 km(2) of extant range. Approximately 17% of extant leopard range is protected, although some endangered subspecies have far less. We found that while leopard research was increasing, research effort was primarily on the subspecies with the most remaining range whereas subspecies that are most in need of urgent attention were neglected.

Scent Lure Effect on Camera-Trap Based Leopard Density Estimates

Density estimates for large carnivores derived from camera surveys often have wide confidence intervals due to low detection rates. Such estimates are of limited value to authorities, which require precise population estimates to inform conservation strategies. Using lures can potentially increase detection, improving the precision of estimates. However, by altering the spatio-temporal patterning of individuals across the camera array, lures may violate closure, a fundamental assumption of capture-recapture. Here, we test the effect of scent lures on the precision and veracity of density estimates derived from camera-trap surveys of a protected African leopard population. We undertook two surveys (a 'control' and 'treatment' survey) on Phinda Game Reserve, South Africa. Survey design remained consistent except a scent lure was applied at camera-trap stations during the treatment survey. Lures did not affect the maximum movement distances (p = 0.96) or temporal activity of female (p = 0.12) or male leopards (p = 0.79), and the assumption of geographic closure was met for both surveys (p >0.05). The numbers of photographic captures were also similar for control and treatment surveys (p = 0.90). Accordingly, density estimates were comparable between surveys (although estimates derived using non-spatial methods (7.28-9.28 leopards/100km2) were considerably higher than estimates from spatially-explicit methods (3.40-3.65 leopards/100km2). The precision of estimates from the control and treatment surveys, were also comparable and this applied to both non-spatial and spatial methods of estimation. Our findings suggest that at least in the context of leopard research in productive habitats, the use of lures is not warranted.

Structural habitat predicts functional dispersal habitat of a large carnivore: how leopards change spots

Natal dispersal promotes inter-population linkage, and is key to spatial distribution of populations. Degradation of suitable landscape structures beyond the specific threshold of an individual's ability to disperse can therefore lead to disruption of functional landscape connectivity and impact metapopulation function. Because it ignores behavioral responses of individuals, structural connectivity is easier to assess than functional connectivity and is often used as a surrogate for landscape connectivity modeling. However using structural resource selection models as surrogate for modeling functional connectivity through dispersal could be erroneous. We tested how well a second-order resource selection function (RSF) models (structural connectivity), based on GPS telemetry data from resident adult leopard (Panthera pardus L.), could predict subadult habitat use during dispersal (functional connectivity). We created eight non-exclusive subsets of the subadult data based on differing definitions of dispersal to assess the predictive ability of our adult-based RSF model extrapolated over a broader landscape. Dispersing leopards used habitats in accordance with adult selection patterns, regardless of the definition of dispersal considered. We demonstrate that, for a wide-ranging apex carnivore, functional connectivity through natal dispersal corresponds to structural connectivity as modeled by a second-order RSF. Mapping of the adult-based habitat classes provides direct visualization of the potential linkages between populations, without the need to model paths between a priori starting and destination points. The use of such landscape scale RSFs may provide insight into predicting suitable dispersal habitat peninsulas in human-dominated landscapes where mitigation of human-wildlife conflict should be focused. We recommend the use of second-order RSFs for landscape conservation planning and propose a similar approach to the conservation of other wide-ranging large carnivore species where landscape-scale resource selection data already exist.

Functional Responses of Retaliatory Killing versus Recreational Sport Hunting of Leopards in South Africa

Predation strategies in response to altering prey abundances can dramatically influence the demographic effects of predation. Despite this, predation strategies of humans are rarely incorporated into quantitative assessments of the demographic impacts of humans killing carnivores. This scarcity largely seems to be caused by a lack of data. In this study, we contrasted predation strategies exhibited by people involved in retaliatory killing and recreational sport hunting of leopards (Panthera pardus) in the Waterberg District Municipality, South Africa. We predicted a specialist predation strategy exemplified by a type II functional response for retaliatory killing, and a generalist strategy exemplified by a type III functional response for recreational sport hunting. We could not distinguish between a type I, a type II, or a type III functional response for retaliatory killing, but the most parsimonious model for recreational sport hunting corresponded to a type I functional response. Kill rates were consistently higher for retaliatory killing than for recreational sport hunting. Our results indicate that retaliatory killing of leopards may have severe demographic consequences for leopard populations, whereas the demographic consequences of recreational sport hunting likely are less dramatic.

Density-dependent natal dispersal patterns in a leopard population recovering from over-harvest

Natal dispersal enables population connectivity, gene flow and metapopulation dynamics. In polygynous mammals, dispersal is typically male-biased. Classically, the 'mate competition', 'resource competition' and 'resident fitness' hypotheses predict density-dependent dispersal patterns, while the 'inbreeding avoidance' hypothesis posits density-independent dispersal. In a leopard (Panthera pardus) population recovering from over-harvest, we investigated the effect of sex, population density and prey biomass, on age of natal dispersal, distance dispersed, probability of emigration and dispersal success. Over an 11-year period, we tracked 35 subadult leopards using VHF and GPS telemetry. Subadult leopards initiated dispersal at 13.6 ± 0.4 months. Age at commencement of dispersal was positively density-dependent. Although males (11.0 ± 2.5 km) generally dispersed further than females (2.7 ± 0.4 km), some males exhibited opportunistic philopatry when the population was below capacity. All 13 females were philopatric, while 12 of 22 males emigrated. Male dispersal distance and emigration probability followed a quadratic relationship with population density, whereas female dispersal distance was inversely density-dependent. Eight of 12 known-fate females and 5 of 12 known-fate male leopards were successful in settling. Dispersal success did not vary with population density, prey biomass, and for males, neither between dispersal strategies (philopatry vs. emigration). Females formed matrilineal kin clusters, supporting the resident fitness hypothesis. Conversely, mate competition appeared the main driver for male leopard dispersal. We demonstrate that dispersal patterns changed over time, i.e. as the leopard population density increased. We conclude that conservation interventions that facilitated local demographic recovery in the study area also restored dispersal patterns disrupted by unsustainable harvesting, and that this indirectly improved connectivity among leopard populations over a larger landscape.

Who bites the bullet first? The susceptibility of leopards Panthera pardus to trophy hunting

Reliable data is fundamentally important for managing large carnivore populations, and vital for informing hunting quota levels if those populations are subject to trophy hunting. Camera-trapping and spoor counts can provide reliable population estimates for many carnivores, but governments typically lack the resources to implement such surveys over the spatial scales required to inform robust quota setting. It may therefore be prudent to shift focus away from estimating population size and instead focus on monitoring population trend. In this paper we assess the susceptibility of African leopards Panthera pardus to trophy hunting. This has management ramifications, particularly if the use of harvest composition is to be explored as a metric of population trend. We explore the susceptibility of different leopard age and sex cohorts to trophy hunting; first by examining their intrinsic susceptibility to encountering trophy hunters using camera-traps as surrogates, and second by assessing their extrinsic susceptibility using photographic questionnaire surveys to determine their attractiveness to hunters. We show that adult male and female leopards share similar incident rates to encountering hunters but adult males are the most susceptible to hunting due to hunter preference for large trophies. In contrast, sub-adult leopards rarely encounter hunters and are the least attractive trophies. We suggest that our findings be used as a foundation for the exploration of a harvest composition scheme in the Kwazulu-Natal and Limpopo provinces where post mortem information is collected from hunted leopards and submitted to the local provincial authorities.

Adaptable neighbours: movement patterns of GPS-collared leopards in human dominated landscapes in India

Understanding the nature of the interactions between humans and wildlife is of vital importance for conflict mitigation. We equipped five leopards with GPS-collars in Maharashtra (4) and Himachal Pradesh (1), India, to study movement patterns in human-dominated landscapes outside protected areas. An adult male and an adult female were both translocated 52 km, and exhibited extensive, and directional, post release movements (straight line movements: male  = 89 km in 37 days, female  = 45 km in 5 months), until they settled in home ranges of 42 km² (male) and 65 km² (female). The three other leopards, two adult females and a young male were released close to their capture sites and used small home ranges of 8 km² (male), 11 km² and 15 km² (females). Movement patterns were markedly nocturnal, with hourly step lengths averaging 339±9.5 m (SE) during night and 60±4.1 m during day, and night locations were significantly closer to human settlements than day locations. However, more nocturnal movements were observed among those three living in the areas with high human population densities. These visited houses regularly at nighttime (20% of locations <25 m from houses), but rarely during day (<1%). One leopard living in a sparsely populated area avoided human settlements both day and night. The small home ranges of the leopards indicate that anthropogenic food resources may be plentiful although wild prey is absent. The study provides clear insights into the ability of leopards to live and move in landscapes that are extremely modified by human activity.

Survival rates and causes of mortality of leopards Panthera pardus in southern Africa

Estimation of survival rates is important for developing and evaluating conservation options for large carnivores. However, telemetry studies for large carnivores are often characterized by small sample sizes that limit meaningful conclusions. We used data from 10 published and 8 unpublished studies of leopards Panthera pardus in southern Africa to estimate survival rates and investigate causes of leopard mortality. Mean survival rates were significantly lower in non-protected (0.55 ± SE 0.08) compared to protected areas (0.88 ± 0.03). Inside protected areas juveniles had significantly lower survival (0.39 ± 0.10) compared to subadults (0.86 ± 0.07) and adults (0.88 ± 0.04). There was a greater difference in cause of death between protected and non-protected areas for females compared to males, with people being the dominant cause of mortality outside protected areas for both females and males. We suggest there is cause for concern regarding the sustainability of leopard populations in South Africa, as high female mortality may have severe demographic effects and a large proportion of suitable leopard habitat lies in non-protected areas. However, because a large proportion of deaths outside protected areas were attributed to deliberate killing by people, we suggest that management interventions may have the potential to increase leopard survival dramatically. We therefore stress the urgency to initiate actions, such as conflict mitigation programmes, to increase leopard survival in non-protected areas.

Evidence of a high density population of harvested leopards in a montane environment

Populations of large carnivores can persist in mountainous environments following extensive land use change and the conversion of suitable habitat for agriculture and human habitation in lower lying areas of their range. The significance of these populations is poorly understood, however, and little attention has focussed on why certain mountainous areas can hold high densities of large carnivores and what the conservation implications of such populations might be. Here we use the leopard (Panthera pardus) population in the western Soutpansberg Mountains, South Africa, as a model system and show that montane habitats can support high numbers of leopards. Spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analysis recorded the highest density of leopards reported outside of state-protected areas in sub-Saharan Africa. This density represents a temporally high local abundance of leopards and we explore the explanations for this alongside some of the potential conservation implications.

Application of the anthropogenic allee effect model to trophy hunting as a conservation tool

Trophy hunting can provide economic incentives to conserve wild species, but it can also involve risk when rare species are hunted. The anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE) is a conceptual model that seeks to explain how rarity may spread the seeds of further endangerment. The AAE model has increasingly been invoked in the context of trophy hunting, increasing concerns that such hunting may undermine rather than enhance conservation efforts. We question the appropriateness of uncritically applying the AAE model to trophy hunting for 4 reasons. First, the AAE assumes an open-access resource, which is a poor characterization of most trophy-hunting programs and obscures the potential for state, communal, or private-property use rights to generate positive incentives for conservation. Second, study results that show the price of hunting increases as the rarity of the animal increases are insufficient to indicate the presence of AAE. Third, AAE ignores the existence of biological and behavioral factors operating in most trophy-hunting contexts that tend to regulate the effect of hunting. We argue that site-specific data, rather than aggregated hunting statistics, are required to demonstrate that patterns of unsustainable exploitation can be well explained by an AAE model. Instead, we suggest that conservation managers seeking to investigate and identify constraints that limit the potential conservation role of trophy hunting, should focus on the critical governance characteristics that shape the potential conservation role of trophy hunting, such as corruption, insecure property rights, and inadequate sharing of benefits with local people.