Modelling the geographical range of a species with variable life-history

Pushing the boundaries: actual and potential distribution of thrushes expanding their ranges in South America

The distribution of a species reflects its ecological adaptability and evolutionary history, which is shaped by the environment and represents a dynamic area subject to anthropogenic environmental change. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to construct ecological niche models for four thrush species within the Turdus genus; T. amaurochalinus, T. chiguanco, T. falcklandii and T. rufiventris. These models were used to predict the potential geographic distributions of these species that are expanding their ranges in South America. Using occurrence records, we estimated currently occupied areas for each species. We also identified suitable habitats and projected possible areas to be colonized by the four species at continental scale. Temperature annual range had the highest influence for T. falcklandii, while human modification was the main variable explaining the distribution of the other three species. The potential distribution area ranged from 2.5 million km2 for T. falcklandii to nearly seven million km2 for T. amaurochalinus. Large proportions of suitable area remain unoccupied by all four species, being 50% for T. amaurochalinus and T. rufiventris, and about 70% for T. chiguanco and T. falcklandii. Anthropogenic disturbances, such as habitat loss and ecosystem transformation, lead to non-random species extinction and biotic homogenization, highlighting the importance of predictive models as valuable tools for informing mitigation policies and conservation strategies. Thrushes are progressively expanding their ranges, and the colonization of new habitats could bring new challenges.

Integrating water balance mechanisms into predictions of insect responses to climate change

Efficient water balance is key to insect success. However, the hygric environment is changing with climate change; although there are compelling models of thermal vulnerability, water balance is often neglected in predictions. Insects survive desiccating conditions by reducing water loss, increasing their total amount of water (and replenishing it) and increasing their tolerance of dehydration. The physiology underlying these traits is reasonably well understood, as are the sources of variation and phenotypic plasticity. However, water balance and thermal tolerance intersect at high temperatures, such that mortality is sometimes determined by dehydration, rather than heat (especially during long exposures in dry conditions). Furthermore, water balance and thermal tolerance sometimes interact to determine survival. In this Commentary, we propose identifying a threshold where the cause of mortality shifts between dehydration and temperature, and that it should be possible to predict this threshold from trait measurements (and perhaps eventually a priori from physiological or -omic markers).

Risk analysis for Anastrepha suspensa (Diptera: Tephritidae) and potential areas for its biological control with Diachasmimorpha longicaudata (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) in the Americas

The Caribbean fruit fly Anastrepha suspensa (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a polyphagous pest causing economic losses in Central America, the Caribbean and South Florida. The parasitoid wasp Diachasmimorpha longicaudata (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) is the main parasitoid of A. suspensa in biological control programs. In this study, by modeling with CLIMEX software, climatically suitable areas were projected according to historical climate data. Areas with overlapping optimal climatic suitability for the joint establishment of the pest and parasitoid were mapped, indicating large areas with host presence in North, Central, and South America, with cold stress being the main climatic factor limiting distribution for both species. Tropical regions have the most potential for invasion, with optimal suitability in many areas. Through the projected distributions, this study can target quarantine strategies in areas most susceptible to invasion and establishment of the pest in each country. In addition, classical biological control with the parasitoid in areas with climatic suitability is also recommended.

Climate change, host plant availability, and irrigation shape future region-specific distributions of the Sitobion grain aphid complex

BACKGROUND

Understanding where species occur using species distribution models has become fundamental to ecology. Although much attention has been paid to invasive species, questions about climate change related range shifts of widespread insect pests remain unanswered. Here, we incorporated bioclimatic factors and host plant availability into CLIMEX models to predict distributions under future climate scenarios of major cereal pests of the Sitobion grain aphid complex (Sitobion avenae, S. miscanthi, and S. akebiae). Additionally, we incorporated the application of irrigation in our models to explore the relevance of a frequently used management practice that may interact with effects of climate change of the pest distributions.

RESULTS

Our models predicted that the area potentially at high risk of outbreaks of the Sitobion grain aphid complex would increase from 41.3% to 53.3% of the global land mass. This expansion was underlined by regional shifts in both directions: expansion of risk areas in North America, Europe, most of Asia, and Oceania, and contraction of risk areas in South America, Africa, and Australia. In addition, we found that host plant availability limited the potential distribution of pests, while the application of irrigation expanded it.

CONCLUSION

Our study provides insights into potential risk areas of insect pests and how climate, host plant availability, and irrigation affect the occurrence of the Sitobion grain aphid complex. Our results thereby support agricultural policy makers, farmers, and other stakeholders in their development and application of management practices aimed at maximizing crop yields and minimizing economic losses. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Outburst of pest populations in rice-based cropping systems under conservation agricultural practices in the middle Indo-Gangetic Plains of South Asia

Conservation agriculture (CA), which encompasses minimum soil disturbance, residue retention either through crop residue, or cover crops and crop diversification-based crop management practices can modify the status of pest dynamics and activities under the changing climatic scenarios. CA has been advocated extensively to optimize the use of available resources, maintain the environmental quality, enhance crop productivity, and reduce the climate change impacts. Information related to the impacts of long-term CA-production systems under rice-based cropping systems on pest status is lacking, particularly in middle Indo-Gangetic Plains (MIGP). Under CA, puddling is completely avoided, and rice is directly sown or transplanted to maintain better soil health. Different sets of experimentations including farmers practice, partial CA and full CA (CA) as treatments in rice-based cropping systems, were established from 2009, 2015 and 2016 to understand the long-term impacts of CA on pest dynamics. In this study, direct and indirect effects of tillage (zero, reduced and conventional tillage), residue retention and cropping sequences on abundance and damage by pests were investigated. After 4–5 years of experimentation, populations of oriental armyworm [Mythinma (Leucania) (Pseudaletia) separata (Wlk.)] in wheat, mealybug [Brevennia rehi (Lindinger)] and bandicoot rat [Bandicota bengalensis (Gray)] in rice were found to increase abnormally in CA-based production systems. Conventionally tilled plots had a significant negative effect while residue load in zero-tilled plots had a significant positive effect on larval population build-up of M. separata. Zero tillage had a higher infestation of mealybug (52–91% infested hills) that used grassy weeds (Echinochloa colona, Echinochloa crusgalli, Cynodon dactylon, Leptochloa chinensis and Panicum repense) as alternate hosts. Cropping sequences and no disturbance of soil and grassy weeds had higher live burrow counts (4.2 and 13.7 burrows as compared to 1.47 and 7.53 burrows per 62.5 m² during 2019–2020 and 2020–2021, respectively) and damaged tillers (3.4%) in CA-based practices. Based on the present study, pest management strategies in CA need to be revisited with respect to tillage, residue retention on soil surface, grassy weeds in field and cropping sequences to deliver the full benefits of CA in MIGP to achieve the sustainable development goals under the climate change scenarios.

Improving climate suitability for Bemisia tabaci in East Africa is correlated with increased prevalence of whiteflies and cassava diseases

Projected climate changes are thought to promote emerging infectious diseases, though to date, evidence linking climate changes and such diseases in plants has not been available. Cassava is perhaps the most important crop in Africa for smallholder farmers. Since the late 1990’s there have been reports from East and Central Africa of pandemics of begomoviruses in cassava linked to high abundances of whitefly species within the Bemisia tabaci complex. We used CLIMEX, a process-oriented climatic niche model, to explore if this pandemic was linked to recent historical climatic changes. The climatic niche model was corroborated with independent observed field abundance of B. tabaci in Uganda over a 13-year time-series, and with the probability of occurrence of B. tabaci over 2 years across the African study area. Throughout a 39-year climate time-series spanning the period during which the pandemics emerged, the modelled climatic conditions for B. tabaci improved significantly in the areas where the pandemics had been reported and were constant or decreased elsewhere. This is the first reported case where observed historical climate changes have been attributed to the increase in abundance of an insect pest, contributing to a crop disease pandemic.

Phenotypic Plasticity for Desiccation Resistance, Climate Change, and Future Species Distributions: Will Plasticity Have Much Impact?

AbstractWhile species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict the vulnerability of species to climate change, they do not explicitly indicate the extent to which plastic responses ameliorate climate change impacts. Here we use data on plastic responses of 32 species of Drosophila to desiccation stress to suggest that basal resistance, rather than adult hardening, is relatively more important in determining species differences in desiccation resistance and sensitivity to climate change. We go on to show, using the semimechanistic SDM CLIMEX, that the inclusion of plasticity has some impact on current species distributions and future vulnerability for widespread species but has little impact on the distribution of arguably more vulnerable tropically restricted species.

A comparison of absolute performance of different correlative and mechanistic species distribution models in an independent area

To investigate the comparative abilities of six different bioclimatic models in an independent area, utilizing the distribution of eight different species available at a global scale and in Australia. Global scale and Australia. We tested a variety of bioclimatic models for eight different plant species employing five discriminatory correlative species distribution models (SDMs) including Generalized Linear Model (GLM), MaxEnt, Random Forest (RF), Boosted Regression Tree (BRT), Bioclim, together with CLIMEX (CL) as a mechanistic niche model. These models were fitted using a training dataset of available global data, but with the exclusion of Australian locations. The capabilities of these techniques in projecting suitable climate, based on independent records for these species in Australia, were compared. Thus, Australia is not used to calibrate the models and therefore it is as an independent area regarding geographic locations. To assess and compare performance, we utilized the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC), true skill statistic (TSS), and fractional predicted areas for all SDMs. In addition, we assessed satisfactory agreements between the outputs of the six different bioclimatic models, for all eight species in Australia. The modeling method impacted on potential distribution predictions under current climate. However, the utilization of sensitivity and the fractional predicted areas showed that GLM, MaxEnt, Bioclim, and CL had the highest sensitivity for Australian climate conditions. Bioclim calculated the highest fractional predicted area of an independent area, while RF and BRT were poor. For many applications, it is difficult to decide which bioclimatic model to use. This research shows that variable results are obtained using different SDMs in an independent area. This research also shows that the SDMs produce different results for different species; for example, Bioclim may not be good for one species but works better for other species. Also, when projecting a "large" number of species into novel environments or in an independent area, the selection of the "best" model/technique is often less reliable than an ensemble modeling approach. In addition, it is vital to understand the accuracy of SDMs' predictions. Further, while TSS, together with fractional predicted areas, are appropriate tools for the measurement of accuracy between model results, particularly when undertaking projections on an independent area, AUC has been proved not to be. Our study highlights that each one of these models (CL, Bioclim, GLM, MaxEnt, BRT, and RF) provides slightly different results on projections and that it may be safer to use an ensemble of models.

Harnessing Diversity in Wheat to Enhance Grain Yield, Climate Resilience, Disease and Insect Pest Resistance and Nutrition Through Conventional and Modern Breeding Approaches

Current trends in population growth and consumption patterns continue to increase the demand for wheat, a key cereal for global food security. Further, multiple abiotic challenges due to climate change and evolving pathogen and pests pose a major concern for increasing wheat production globally. Triticeae species comprising of primary, secondary, and tertiary gene pools represent a rich source of genetic diversity in wheat. The conventional breeding strategies of direct hybridization, backcrossing and selection have successfully introgressed a number of desirable traits associated with grain yield, adaptation to abiotic stresses, disease resistance, and bio-fortification of wheat varieties. However, it is time consuming to incorporate genes conferring tolerance/resistance to multiple stresses in a single wheat variety by conventional approaches due to limitations in screening methods and the lower probabilities of combining desirable alleles. Efforts on developing innovative breeding strategies, novel tools and utilizing genetic diversity for new genes/alleles are essential to improve productivity, reduce vulnerability to diseases and pests and enhance nutritional quality. New technologies of high-throughput phenotyping, genome sequencing and genomic selection are promising approaches to maximize progeny screening and selection to accelerate the genetic gains in breeding more productive varieties. Use of cisgenic techniques to transfer beneficial alleles and their combinations within related species also offer great promise especially to achieve durable rust resistance.

Identification and Risk Assessment for Worldwide Invasion and Spread of Tuta absoluta with a Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Phytosanitary Measures and Management

To support management decisions, molecular characterization of data and geo-reference of incidence records of Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) were combined with data on the biology and ecology of the pest to estimate its climatic suitability and potential spread at regional and global scale. A CLIMEX model was developed and used for the global prediction of current and future climate-induced changes in the distributional shifts of T. absoluta. Results revealed that temperature and moisture characterized T. absoluta population growth while the pest ability to survive the cold, hot, wet and dry stress conditions are the primary characteristics defining its range frontiers. Simulated irrigation also played an important role in the model optimization. Model predictions suggest that T. absoluta represents an important threat to Africa, Asia, Australia, Northern Europe, New Zealand, Russian Federation and the United States of America (USA). Under climate change context, future predictions on distribution of T. absoluta indicated that the invasive nature of this pest will result in significant crop losses in certain locations whereas some parts of Africa may witness diminution in ranges. The following scenarios may occur: 1) T. absoluta damage potential may upsurge moderately in areas of Africa where the pest currently exists; 2) a range diminution in temperate to Sahel region with moderate upsurge in damage potential; 3) a range expansion in tropical Africa with reasonable upsurge of damage potential. These possible outcomes could be explained by the fact that the continent is already warm, with the average temperature in majority of localities near the threshold temperatures for optimal development and survival of T. absoluta. Outputs from this study should be useful in helping decision-makers in their assessment of site-specific risks of invasion and spread of T. absoluta with a view to developing appropriate surveillance, phytosanitary measures and management strategies.

Evaluation of Limiting Climatic Factors and Simulation of a Climatically Suitable Habitat for Chinese Sea Buckthorn

Chinese sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. sinensis) has considerable economic potential and plays an important role in reclamation and soil and water conservation. For scientific cultivation of this species across China, we identified the key climatic factors and explored climatically suitable habitat in order to maximize survival of Chinese sea buckthorn using MaxEnt and GIS tools, based on 98 occurrence records from herbarium and publications and 13 climatic factors from Bioclim, Holdridge life zone and Kria' index variables. Our simulation showed that the MaxEnt model performance was significantly better than random, with an average test AUC value of 0.93 with 10-fold cross validation. A jackknife test and the regularized gain change, which were applied to the training algorithm, showed that precipitation of the driest month (PDM), annual precipitation (AP), coldness index (CI) and annual range of temperature (ART) were the most influential climatic factors in limiting the distribution of Chinese sea buckthorn, which explained 70.1% of the variation. The predicted map showed that the core of climatically suitable habitat was distributed from the southwest to northwest of Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces, where the most influential climate variables were PDM of 1.0–7.0 mm, AP of 344.0–1089.0 mm, CI of -47.7–0.0°C, and ART of 26.1–45.0°C. We conclude that the distribution patterns of Chinese sea buckthorn are related to the northwest winter monsoon, the southwest summer monsoon and the southeast summer monsoon systems in China.

Predicting the timing of first generation egg hatch for the pest redlegged earth mite Halotydeus destructor (Acari: Penthaleidae)

Integrated pest management in Australian winter grain crops is challenging, partly because the timing and severity of pest outbreaks cannot currently be predicted, and this often results in prophylactic applications of broad spectrum pesticides. We developed a simple model to predict the median emergence in autumn of pest populations of the redlegged earth mite, Halotydeus destructor, a major field crop and pasture pest in southern Australia. Previous data and observations suggest that rainfall and temperature are critical for post-diapause egg hatch. We evaluated seven models that combined rainfall and temperature thresholds derived using three approaches against previously recorded hatch dates and 2013 field records. The performance of the models varied between Western Australia and south-eastern Australian States. In Western Australia, the key attributes of the best fitting model were more than 5 mm rain followed by mean day temperatures of below 20.5 °C for 10 days. In south-eastern Australia, the most effective model involved a temperature threshold reduced to 16 °C. These regional differences may reflect adaptation of H. destructor in south-eastern Australia to varied and uncertain temperature and rainfall regimes of late summer and autumn, relative to the hot and dry Mediterranean-type climate in Western Australia. Field sampling in 2013 revealed a spread of early hatch dates in isolated patches of habitat, ahead of predicted paddock scale hatchings. These regional models should assist in monitoring and subsequent management of H. destructor at the paddock scale.

Piecing together the biogeographic history of Chenopodium vulvaria L. using botanical literature and collections

This study demonstrates the value of legacy literature and historic collections as a source of data on environmental history. Chenopodium vulvaria L. has declined in northern Europe and is of conservation concern in several countries, whereas in other countries outside Europe it has naturalised and is considered an alien weed. In its European range it is considered native in the south, but the northern boundary of its native range is unknown. It is hypothesised that much of its former distribution in northern Europe was the result of repeated introductions from southern Europe and that its decline in northern Europe is the result of habitat change and a reduction in the number of propagules imported to the north. A historical analysis of its ecology and distribution was conducted by mining legacy literature and historical botanical collections. Text analysis of habitat descriptions written on specimens and published in botanical literature covering a period of more than 200 years indicate that the habitat and introduction pathways of C. vulvaria have changed with time. Using the non-European naturalised range in a climate niche model, it is possible to project the range in Europe. By comparing this predicted model with a similar model created from all observations, it is clear that there is a large discrepancy between the realized and predicted distributions. This is discussed together with the social, technological and economic changes that have occurred in northern Europe, with respect to their influence on C. vulvaria.

Climate and host plant availability impact the future distribution of the bean leaf beetle (Cerotoma trifurcata)

The bean leaf beetle, Cerotoma trifurcata, has become a major pest of soybean throughout its North American range. With a changing climate, there is the potential for this pest to further expand its distribution and become an increasingly severe pest in certain regions. To examine this possibility, we developed bioclimatic envelope models for both the bean leaf beetle, and its most important agronomic host plant, soybean (Glycine max). These two models were combined to examine the potential future pest status of the beetle using climate change projections from multiple general circulation models (GCMs) and climate change scenarios. Despite the broad tolerances of soybean, incorporation of host plant availability substantially decreased the suitable and favourable areas for the bean leaf beetle as compared to an evaluation based solely on the climate envelope of the beetle, demonstrating the importance of incorporating biotic interactions in these predictions. The use of multiple GCM-scenario combinations also revealed differences in predictions depending on the choice of GCM, with scenario choice having less of an impact. While the Norwegian model predicted little northward expansion of the beetle from its current northern range limit of southern Ontario and overall decreases in suitable and favourable areas over time, the Canadian and Russian models predict that much of Ontario and Quebec will become suitable for the beetle in the future, as well as Manitoba under the Russian model. The Russian model also predicts expansion of the suitable and favourable areas for the beetle over time. Two predictions that do not depend on our choice of GCM include a decrease in suitability of the Mississippi Delta region and continued favourability of the southeastern United States.

Cereal aphid movement: general principles and simulation modelling

Cereal aphids continue to be an important agricultural pest, with complex lifecycle and dispersal behaviours. Spatially-explicit models that are able to simulate flight initiation, movement direction, distance and timing of arrival of key aphid species can be highly valuable to area-wide pest management programmes. Here I present an overview of how knowledge about cereal aphid flight and migration can be utilized by mechanistic simulation models. This article identifies specific gaps in knowledge for researchers who may wish to further scientific understanding of aphid flight behaviour, whilst at the same time provides a synopsis of the knowledge requirements for a mechanistic approach applicable to the simulation of a wide range of insect species. Although they are one of the most comprehensively studied insect groups in entomology, it is only recently that our understanding of cereal aphid flight and migration has been translated effectively into spatially-explicit simulation models. There are now a multitude of examples available in the literature for modelling methods that address each of the four phases of the aerial transportation process (uplift, transport in the atmosphere, initial distribution, and subsequent movement). I believe it should now be possible to draw together this knowledgebase and the range of modelling methods available to simulate the entire process: integrating mechanistic simulations that estimate the initiation of migration events, with the large scale migration modelling of cereal aphids and their subsequent local movement.

Integrating life stages into ecological niche models: a case study on tiger beetles

Detailed understanding of a species' natural history and environmental needs across spatial scales is a primary requisite for effective conservation planning, particularly for species with complex life cycles in which different life stages occupy different niches and respond to the environment at different scales. However, niche models applied to conservation often neglect early life stages and are mostly performed at broad spatial scales. Using the endangered heath tiger beetle (Cicindela sylvatica) as a model species, we relate presence/absence and abundance data of locally dispersing adults and sedentary larvae to abiotic and biotic variables measured in a multiscale approach within the geographic extent relevant to active conservation management. At the scale of hundreds of meters, fine-grained abiotic conditions (i.e., vegetation structure) are fundamental determinants of the occurrence of both life stages, whereas the effect of biotic factors is mostly contained in the abiotic signature. The combination of dense heath vegetation and bare ground areas is thus the first requirement for the species' preservation, provided that accessibility to the suitable habitat is ensured. At a smaller scale (centimetres), the influence of abiotic factors on larval occurrence becomes negligible, suggesting the existence of important additional variables acting within larval proximity. Sustained significant correlations between neighbouring larvae in the models provide an indication of the potential impact of neighbourhood crowding on the larval niche within a few centimetres. Since the species spends the majority of its life cycle in the larval stage, it is essential to consider the hierarchical abiotic and biotic processes affecting the larvae when designing practical conservation guidelines for the species. This underlines the necessity for a more critical evaluation of the consequences of disregarding niche variation between life stages when estimating niches and addressing effective conservation measures for species with complex life cycles.