Supply of neuraminidase inhibitors related to reduced influenza A (H1N1) mortality during the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic: an ecological study

Possible explanations for why some countries were harder hit by the pandemic influenza virus in 2009 - a global mortality impact modeling study

BACKGROUND

A global pandemic mortality study found prominent regional mortality variations in 2009 for Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Our study attempts to identify factors that explain why the pandemic mortality burden was high in some countries and low in others.

METHODS

As a starting point, we identified possible risk factors worth investigating for Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 mortality through a targeted literature search. We then used a modeling procedure (data simulations and regression models) to identify factors that could explain differences in respiratory mortality due to Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. We ran sixteen models to produce robust results and draw conclusions. In order to assess the role of each factor in explaining differences in excess pandemic mortality, we calculated the reduction in between country variance, which can be viewed as an effect-size for each factor.

RESULTS

The literature search identified 124 publications and 48 possible risk factors, of which we were able to identify 27 factors with appropriate global datasets. The modelling procedure indicated that age structure (explaining 40% of the mean between country variance), latitude (8%), influenza A and B viruses circulating during the pandemic (3-8%), influenza A and B viruses circulating during the preceding influenza season (2-6%), air pollution (pm10; 4%) and the prevalence of other infections (HIV and TB) (4-6%) were factors that explained differences in mortality around the world. Healthcare expenditure, levels of obesity, the distribution of antivirals, and air travel did not explain global pandemic mortality differences.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study found that countries with a large proportion of young persons had higher pandemic mortality rates in 2009. The co-circulation of influenza viruses during the pandemic and the circulation of influenza viruses during the preceding season were also associated with pandemic mortality rates. We found that real time assessments of 2009 pandemic mortality risk factors (e.g. obesity) probably led to a number of false positive findings.

Developments in the treatment of severe influenza: lessons from the pandemic of 2009 and new prospects for therapy

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Cases of severe influenza may occur during seasonal epidemics, following sporadic zoonotic influenza A transmission from animal reservoirs or on a massive scale with the unpredictable emergence of a new pandemic influenza strain. Clinical experience identifies unmet medical need for additional therapies for influenza, in particular to treat severely unwell adults and children. During and following the pandemic of 2009, a wealth of data from hospitalized cases of influenza from many different countries accumulated and are now starting to emerge. Observational clinical data provide information about the efficacy of existing antiviral drugs in severely ill patients. The development pipeline for new therapies contains several promising agents which are focussed on a range of viral targets, and opens the possibility of combination antiviral therapy for the first time, which may be especially useful in clinically challenging cases. Advances in immunological methods and recombinant protein engineering support the potential for use of immunomodulating therapies as adjuncts in treatment of severe influenza.

RECENT FINDINGS

The main themes are the importance of treating severe influenza early, considering multiple therapy options and the relevance of observational clinical data to treatment of severely ill and risk groups.

SUMMARY

Clinicians, who may have only seen the media headlines following discussion of reviews which deal with randomized controlled trials of neuraminidase inhibitor drug use in mild uncomplicated influenza in the community, may be hesitant to prescribe these drugs. Observational data arising from treatment of severely ill individuals support use of these drugs early in illness and show improvement in outcomes associated with drug use.

Zanamivir Amidoxime- and N-Hydroxyguanidine-Based Prodrug Approaches to Tackle Poor Oral Bioavailability

The neuraminidase (NA) inhibitor zanamivir (1) is potently active against a broad panel of influenza A and B strains, including mutant viruses, but suffers from pharmacokinetic (PK) shortcomings. Here, distinct prodrug approaches are described that aimed at overcoming zanamivir's lack of oral bioavailability. Lowering the high basicity of the 4-guanidino group in zanamivir and of a bioisosteric 4-acetamidine analog (5) by N-hydroxylation was deemed to be a plausible tactic. The carboxylic acid and glycerol side chain were also masked with different ester groups. The bioisosteric amidine 5 turned out to be potently active against a panel of H1N1 (IC50 = 2-10 nM) and H3N2 (IC50 = 5-10 nM) influenza A viruses (NA inhibition assay). In vitro PK studies showed that all prodrugs were highly soluble, exhibited low protein binding, and were bioactivated by N-reduction to the respective guanidines and amidines. The most promising prodrug candidates, amidoxime ester 7 and N-hydroxyguanidine ester 8, were subjected to in vivo bioavailability studies. Unfortunately, both prodrugs were not orally bioavailable to a convincing degree (F ≤ 3.7%, rats). This finding questions the general feasibility of improving the oral bioavailability of 1 by lipophilicity-increasing prodrug strategies, and suggests that intrinsic structural features represent key hurdles.

Global burden of influenza as a cause of cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality

Severe acute respiratory infections, including influenza, are a leading cause of cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality worldwide. Until recently, the epidemiology of influenza was limited to resource-rich countries. Emerging epidemiological reports characterizing the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, however, suggest that influenza exerts an even greater toll in low-income, resource-constrained environments where it is the cause of 5% to 27% of all severe acute respiratory infections. The increased burden of disease in this setting is multifactorial and likely is the result of higher rates of comorbidities such as human immunodeficiency virus, decreased access to health care, including vaccinations and antiviral medications, and limited healthcare infrastructure, including oxygen therapy or critical care support. Improved global epidemiology of influenza is desperately needed to guide allocation of life-saving resources, including vaccines, antiviral medications, and direct the improvement of basic health care to mitigate the impact of influenza infection on the most vulnerable populations.

Effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors in reducing mortality in patients admitted to hospital with influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus infection: a meta-analysis of individual participant data

BACKGROUND

Neuraminidase inhibitors were widely used during the 2009-10 influenza A H1N1 pandemic, but evidence for their effectiveness in reducing mortality is uncertain. We did a meta-analysis of individual participant data to investigate the association between use of neuraminidase inhibitors and mortality in patients admitted to hospital with pandemic influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus infection.

METHODS

We assembled data for patients (all ages) admitted to hospital worldwide with laboratory confirmed or clinically diagnosed pandemic influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus infection. We identified potential data contributors from an earlier systematic review of reported studies addressing the same research question. In our systematic review, eligible studies were done between March 1, 2009 (Mexico), or April 1, 2009 (rest of the world), until the WHO declaration of the end of the pandemic (Aug 10, 2010); however, we continued to receive data up to March 14, 2011, from ongoing studies. We did a meta-analysis of individual participant data to assess the association between neuraminidase inhibitor treatment and mortality (primary outcome), adjusting for both treatment propensity and potential confounders, using generalised linear mixed modelling. We assessed the association with time to treatment using time-dependent Cox regression shared frailty modelling.

FINDINGS

We included data for 29,234 patients from 78 studies of patients admitted to hospital between Jan 2, 2009, and March 14, 2011. Compared with no treatment, neuraminidase inhibitor treatment (irrespective of timing) was associated with a reduction in mortality risk (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0·81; 95% CI 0·70-0·93; p=0·0024). Compared with later treatment, early treatment (within 2 days of symptom onset) was associated with a reduction in mortality risk (adjusted OR 0·48; 95% CI 0·41-0·56; p<0·0001). Early treatment versus no treatment was also associated with a reduction in mortality (adjusted OR 0·50; 95% CI 0·37-0·67; p<0·0001). These associations with reduced mortality risk were less pronounced and not significant in children. There was an increase in the mortality hazard rate with each day's delay in initiation of treatment up to day 5 as compared with treatment initiated within 2 days of symptom onset (adjusted hazard ratio [HR 1·23] [95% CI 1·18-1·28]; p<0·0001 for the increasing HR with each day's delay).

INTERPRETATION

We advocate early instigation of neuraminidase inhibitor treatment in adults admitted to hospital with suspected or proven influenza infection.

FUNDING

F Hoffmann-La Roche.

Addressing the public health burden of respiratory viruses: the Battle against Respiratory Viruses (BRaVe) Initiative

Given the enormous estimated burden of respiratory virus infections worldwide, a substantial number of research priorities exist in order to better understand their epidemiology, pathogenesis, prevention and clinical management across different populations and resource settings. New therapeutics and specific vaccines for noninfluenza respiratory virus infections could provide enormous benefits in reducing the morbidity and mortality associated with these frequent infections and provide the foundation for responding to newly emerging threats. The BRaVe Initiative is a new WHO-led effort to catalyze multidisciplinary research on strategies to prevent and treat medically important respiratory virus infections with the goal of timely integration of scientific advances and technical innovations into public health practice.