The rate of sputum smear-positive tuberculosis after treatment default in a high-burden setting: a retrospective cohort study

Tuberculosis control at a South African correctional centre: Diagnosis, treatment and strain characterisation

Background

Correctional centres provide ideal conditions for tuberculosis (TB) transmission and disease progression. Despite the high TB incidence and incarceration rate in South Africa, data from South African correctional centres are scarce. Thus, the study evaluated TB diagnosis, treatment initiation and completion, and identified prevalent Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains among detainees entering a South African correctional centre.

Methods

This study was a prospective observational study that enrolled participants between February and September 2017 from a correctional centre located in the Western Cape, South Africa. All adult male detainees who tested positive for TB during admission screening were eligible to participate in the study. Sputum samples from enrolled participants underwent smear microscopy and culture. Strain typing was performed on culture-positive samples. The time between specimen collection and diagnosis, the time between diagnosis and treatment initiation, and the proportion of detainees completing TB treatment at the correctional centre were calculated.

Results

During the study period, 130 TB cases were detected through routine admission screening (126 male, 2 female, 2 juvenile). Out of the 126 eligible male detainees, 102 were enrolled in the study (81%, 102/126). All TB cases were detected within 30 hrs of admission screening. The majority (78%, 80/102) of participants started treatment within 48 hrs of TB diagnosis. However, only 8% (9/102) of participants completed treatment at the correction centre. Sputa from 90 of the 102 participants were available for smear and culture. There was a high smear positivity, with 49% (44/90) of isolates being smear positive. The Beijing family was the most frequent lineage (55.2%) in the study.

Conclusion

The strengths of the current TB control efforts at the correctional centre include rapid detection of cases through admission screening and prompt treatment initiation. However, a high number of detainees exiting before treatment completion highlights the need to strengthen links between correctional TB services and community TB services to ensure detainees complete TB treatment after release and prevent TB transmission.

Risk factors for early TB treatment interruption among newly diagnosed patients in Malaysia

TB treatment interruption has resulted in delayed sputum conversion, drug resistance, and a high mortality rate and a prolonged treatment course, hence leading to economic and psychosocial affliction. To date, there are limited studies investigating the physico-social risk factors for early treatment interruptions. This prospective multicenter cohort study aimed to investigate the risk factors for early treatment interruption among new pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) smear-positive patients in Selangor, Malaysia. A total of 439 participants were recruited from 39 public treatment centres, 2018–2019. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard analyses were performed to analyse the risk factors for early treatment interruption. Of 439 participants, 104 (23.7%) had early treatment interruption, with 67.3% of early treatment interruption occurring in the first month of treatment. Being a current smoker and having a history of hospitalization, internalized stigma, low TB symptoms score, and waiting time spent at Directly Observed Treatment, Short-course centre were risk factors for early treatment interruption. An appropriate treatment adherence strategy is suggested to prioritize the high-risk group with high early treatment interruption. Efforts to quit smoking cessation programs and to promote stigma reduction interventions are crucial to reduce the probability of early treatment interruption.

A systematic review of the quality of conduct and reporting of survival analyses of tuberculosis outcomes in Africa

BACKGROUND

Survival analyses methods (SAMs) are central to analysing time-to-event outcomes. Appropriate application and reporting of such methods are important to ensure correct interpretation of the data. In this study, we systematically review the application and reporting of SAMs in studies of tuberculosis (TB) patients in Africa. It is the first review to assess the application and reporting of SAMs in this context.

METHODS

Systematic review of studies involving TB patients from Africa published between January 2010 and April 2020 in English language. Studies were eligible if they reported use of SAMs. Application and reporting of SAMs were evaluated based on seven author-defined criteria.

RESULTS

Seventy-six studies were included with patient numbers ranging from 56 to 182,890. Forty-three (57%) studies involved a statistician/epidemiologist. The number of published papers per year applying SAMs increased from two in 2010 to 18 in 2019 (P = 0.004). Sample size estimation was not reported by 67 (88%) studies. A total of 22 (29%) studies did not report summary follow-up time. The survival function was commonly presented using Kaplan-Meier survival curves (n = 51, (67%) studies) and group comparisons were performed using log-rank tests (n = 44, (58%) studies). Sixty seven (91%), 3 (4.1%) and 4 (5.4%) studies reported Cox proportional hazard, competing risk and parametric survival regression models, respectively. A total of 37 (49%) studies had hierarchical clustering, of which 28 (76%) did not adjust for the clustering in the analysis. Reporting was adequate among 4.0, 1.3 and 6.6% studies for sample size estimation, plotting of survival curves and test of survival regression underlying assumptions, respectively. Forty-five (59%), 52 (68%) and 73 (96%) studies adequately reported comparison of survival curves, follow-up time and measures of effect, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The quality of reporting survival analyses remains inadequate despite its increasing application. Because similar reporting deficiencies may be common in other diseases in low- and middle-income countries, reporting guidelines, additional training, and more capacity building are needed along with more vigilance by reviewers and journal editors.

Factors influencing TB treatment interruption and treatment outcomes among patients in Kiambu County, 2016-2019

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of mortality as a single infectious agent globally with increasing numbers of case notification in developing countries. This study seeks to investigate the clinical and socio-demographic factors of time to TB treatment interruption among Tuberculosis patients in Kiambu County, 2016–2019. We retrospectively analyzed data for all treatment outcomes patients obtained from TB tracing form linked with the Tuberculosis Information Basic Unit (TIBU) of patients in Kiambu County health facilities using time to treatment interruption as the main outcome. Categorical variables were presented using frequency and percentages. Kaplan-Meir curve was used to analyze probabilities of time to treatment interruptions between intensive and continuation phases. Log-rank test statistics was used to compare the equality of the curves. Cox proportion model was used to determine determinants of treatment interruption. A total of 292 participants were included in this study. Males were 68%, with majority (35%) of the participants were aged 24–35 years; 5.8% were aged 0–14 years and 5.1% aged above 55 years. The overall treatment success rate was 66.8% (cured, 34.6%; completed 32.2%), 60.3% were on intensive phase of treatment. Lack of knowledge and relocation were the major reasons of treatment interruptions. Patients on intensive phase were 1.58 times likely to interrupt treatment compared to those on continuation phase (aHR: 1.581; 95%CI: 1.232–2.031). There is need to develop TB interventions that target men and middle aged population in order to reduce treatment interruption and increase the treatment success rates in the County and Country.

The potential impact of urine-LAM diagnostics on tuberculosis incidence and mortality: A modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Lateral flow urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM) tests could offer important new opportunities for the early detection of tuberculosis (TB). The currently licensed LAM test, Alere Determine TB LAM Ag ('LF-LAM'), performs best in the sickest people living with HIV (PLHIV). However, the technology continues to improve, with newer LAM tests, such as Fujifilm SILVAMP TB LAM ('SILVAMP-LAM') showing improved sensitivity, including amongst HIV-negative patients. It is important to anticipate the epidemiological impact that current and future LAM tests may have on TB incidence and mortality.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Concentrating on South Africa, we examined the impact that widening LAM test eligibility would have on TB incidence and mortality. We developed a mathematical model of TB transmission to project the impact of LAM tests, distinguishing 'current' tests (with sensitivity consistent with LF-LAM), from hypothetical 'future' tests (having sensitivity consistent with SILVAMP-LAM). We modelled the impact of both tests, assuming full adoption of the 2019 WHO guidelines for the use of these tests amongst those receiving HIV care. We also simulated the hypothetical deployment of future LAM tests for all people presenting to care with TB symptoms, not restricted to PLHIV. Our model projects that 2,700,000 (95% credible interval [CrI] 2,000,000-3,600,000) and 420,000 (95% CrI 350,000-520,000) cumulative TB incident cases and deaths, respectively, would occur between 2020 and 2035 if the status quo is maintained. Relative to this comparator, current and future LAM tests would respectively avert 54 (95% CrI 33-86) and 90 (95% CrI 55-145) TB deaths amongst inpatients between 2020 and 2035, i.e., reductions of 5% (95% CrI 4%-6%) and 9% (95% CrI 7%-11%) in inpatient TB mortality. This impact in absolute deaths averted doubles if testing is expanded to include outpatients, yet remains <1% of country-level TB deaths. Similar patterns apply to incidence results. However, deploying a future LAM test for all people presenting to care with TB symptoms would avert 470,000 (95% CrI 220,000-870,000) incident TB cases (18% reduction, 95% CrI 9%-29%) and 120,000 (95% CrI 69,000-210,000) deaths (30% reduction, 95% CrI 18%-44%) between 2020 and 2035. Notably, this increase in impact arises largely from diagnosis of TB amongst those with HIV who are not yet in HIV care, and who would thus be ineligible for a LAM test under current guidelines. Qualitatively similar results apply under an alternative comparator assuming expanded use of GeneXpert MTB/RIF ('Xpert') for TB diagnosis. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates qualitatively similar results in a setting like Kenya, which also has a generalised HIV epidemic, but a lower burden of HIV/TB coinfection. Amongst limitations of this analysis, we do not address the cost or cost-effectiveness of future tests. Our model neglects drug resistance and focuses on the country-level epidemic, thus ignoring subnational variations in HIV and TB burden.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that LAM tests could have an important effect in averting TB deaths amongst PLHIV with advanced disease. However, achieving population-level impact on the TB epidemic, even in high-HIV-burden settings, will require future LAM tests to have sufficient performance to be deployed more broadly than in HIV care.

Cost-effectiveness of post-treatment follow-up examinations and secondary prevention of tuberculosis in a high-incidence setting: a model-based analysis

BACKGROUND

In settings of high tuberculosis incidence, previously treated individuals remain at high risk of recurrent tuberculosis and contribute substantially to overall disease burden. Whether tuberculosis case finding and preventive interventions among previously treated people are cost-effective has not been established. We aimed to estimate costs and health benefits of annual post-treatment follow-up examinations and secondary preventive therapy for tuberculosis in a tuberculosis-endemic setting.

METHODS

We developed a transmission-dynamic mathematical model and calibrated it to data from two high-incidence communities of approximately 40 000 people in suburban Cape Town, South Africa. We used the model to estimate overall cost and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with annual follow-up examinations and secondary isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT), alone and in combination, among individuals completing tuberculosis treatment. We investigated scenarios under which these interventions were restricted to the first year after treatment completion, or extended indefinitely. For each intervention scenario, we projected health system costs and DALYs averted with respect to the current status quo of tuberculosis control. All estimates represent mean values derived from 1000 epidemic trajectories simulated over a 10-year period (2019-28), with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values.

FINDINGS

We estimated that a single follow-up examination at the end of the first year after treatment completion combined with 12 months of secondary IPT would avert 2472 DALYs (95% UI -888 to 7801) over a 10-year period and is expected to be cost-saving compared with current control efforts. Sustained annual follow-up and continuous secondary IPT beyond the first year after treatment would avert an additional 1179 DALYs (-1769 to 4377) over 10 years at an expected additional cost of US$18·2 per DALY averted. Strategies of follow-up without secondary IPT were dominated (ie, expected to result in lower health impact at higher costs) by strategies that included secondary IPT.

INTERPRETATION

In this high-incidence setting, post-treatment follow-up and secondary preventive therapy can accelerate declines in tuberculosis incidence and potentially save resources for tuberculosis control. Empirical trials to assess the feasibility of these interventions in settings most severely affected by tuberculosis are needed.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health, Günther Labes Foundation, Oskar Helene Heim Foundation.

Survival analysis of patients with tuberculosis in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan region

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is an important health concern in Iraq, but limited research has examined the quality of tuberculosis care and the survival of the patients. This study aimed to assess the 12-month survival of tuberculosis patients and evaluate the effect of the associated risk factors on patients' survival.

METHODS

We reviewed the records of 728 patients with tuberculosis who were registered and treated at the Chest and Respiratory Disease Center in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan Region, from January 2012 to December 2017. Demographic data, the site of the disease, and treatment outcomes were retrieved from patients' records. Data analysis included the use of the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test to calculate the estimates of the survival and assess the differences in the survival among the patients. The Cox regression model was used for univariate and multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

The mean period of the follow-up of the patients was 7.6 months. Of 728 patients with tuberculosis, 50 (6.9%) had died. The 12-month survival rate of our study was 93.1%. A statistically significant difference was detected in the survival curves of different age groups (P < 0.001) and the site of the disease (P = 0.012). In multivariate analysis, lower survival rates were only observed among patients aged ≥65 years (hazard ratio = 9.36, 95% CI 2.14-40.95) and patients with extrapulmonary disease (hazard ratio = 2.61, 95% CI 1.30-5.27).

CONCLUSION

The 12-month survival rate of tuberculosis patients managed at the Chest and Respiratory Disease Center in Erbil was similar to the international rates. The high rates of extrapulmonary tuberculosis and the low survival rate necessitate further studies and action with a possible revision to the tuberculosis management strategy.

Wirelessly observed therapy compared to directly observed therapy to confirm and support tuberculosis treatment adherence: A randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Excellent adherence to tuberculosis (TB) treatment is critical to cure TB and avoid the emergence of resistance. Wirelessly observed therapy (WOT) is a novel patient self-management system consisting of an edible ingestion sensor (IS), external wearable patch, and paired mobile device that can detect and digitally record medication ingestions. Our study determined the accuracy of ingestion detection in clinical and home settings using WOT and subsequently compared, in a randomized control trial (RCT), confirmed daily adherence to medication in persons using WOT or directly observed therapy (DOT) during TB treatment.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We evaluated WOT in persons with active Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex disease using IS-enabled combination isoniazid 150 mg/rifampin 300 mg (IS-Rifamate). Seventy-seven participants with drug-susceptible TB in the continuation phase of treatment, prescribed daily isoniazid 300 mg and rifampin 600 mg, used IS-Rifamate. The primary endpoints of the trial were determination of the positive detection accuracy (PDA) of WOT, defined as the percentage of ingestions detected by WOT administered under direct observation, and subsequently the proportion of prescribed doses confirmed by WOT compared to DOT. Initially participants received DOT and WOT simultaneously for 2-3 weeks to allow calculation of WOT PDA, and the 95% confidence interval (CI) was estimated using the bootstrap method with 10,000 samples. Sixty-one participants subsequently participated in an RCT to compare the proportion of prescribed doses confirmed by WOT and DOT. Participants were randomized 2:1 to receive WOT or maximal in-person DOT. In the WOT arm, if ingestions were not remotely confirmed, the participant was contacted within 24 hours by text or cell phone to provide support. The number of doses confirmed was collected, and nonparametric methods were used for group and individual comparisons to estimate the proportions of confirmed doses in each randomized arm with 95% CIs. Sensitivity analyses, not prespecified in the trial registration, were also performed, removing all nonworking (weekend and public holiday) and held-dose days. Participants, recruited from San Diego (SD) and Orange County (OC) Divisions of TB Control and Refugee Health, were 43.1 (range 18-80) years old, 57% male, 42% Asian, and 39% white with 49% Hispanic ethnicity. The PDA of WOT was 99.3% (CI 98.1; 100). Intent-to-treat (ITT) analysis within the RCT showed WOT confirmed 93% versus 63% DOT (p < 0.001) of daily doses prescribed. Secondary analysis removing all nonworking days (weekends and public holidays) and held doses from each arm showed WOT confirmed 95.6% versus 92.7% (p = 0.31); WOT was non-inferior to DOT (difference 2.8% CI [-1.8%, 9.1%]). One hundred percent of participants preferred using WOT. WOT associated adverse events were <10%, consisting of minor skin rash and pruritus associated with the patch. WOT provided longitudinal digital reporting in near real time, supporting patient self-management and allowing rapid remote identification of those who needed more support to maintain adherence. This study was conducted during the continuation phase of TB treatment, limiting its generalizability to the entire TB treatment course.

CONCLUSIONS

In terms of accuracy, WOT was equivalent to DOT. WOT was superior to DOT in supporting confirmed daily adherence to TB medications during the continuation phase of TB treatment and was overwhelmingly preferred by participants. WOT should be tested in high-burden TB settings, where it may substantially support low- and middle-income country (LMIC) TB programs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01960257.

Whole genome sequencing provides additional insights into recurrent tuberculosis classified as endogenous reactivation by IS6110 DNA fingerprinting

Recurrent tuberculosis (TB) after successful TB treatment occurs due to endogenous reactivation (relapse) or exogenous reinfection. We revisited the conclusions of relapse in a high TB incidence setting that were drawn on the basis of IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis in a large retrospective cohort study in suburban Cape Town, South Africa. Using whole genome sequencing (WGS), we undertook pair-wise genome comparison of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains cultured from diagnostic sputum samples collected at the index and recurrent TB episode for 25 recurrent TB cases who had been classified as relapse based on identical DNA fingerprint patterns in the earlier study. We found that paired strain genome sequences were identical or showed minimal variant differences in 22 of 25 recurrent TB cases, consistent with relapse. One showed 20 variant differences, suggestive of exogenous reinfection. Two of the 25 had mixed infections, each with the index episode strain detected as the dominant strain at recurrence in one of these patients, the minority strain harboured drug-resistance conferring mutations (rpoB, katG). In conclusion, our study highlights the additional value of WGS for investigating recurrent TB in settings with high infection pressure and closely related circulating strains, where the extent of re- and mixed infection may be underestimated.

Predictors of tuberculosis treatment success under the DOTS program in Namibia

OBJECTIVES

Optimal treatment success rates are critical to end tuberculosis in Namibia. Despite the scale-up of high quality directly observed therapy short-course strategy (DOTS) in Namibia, treatment success falls short of the global target of 90%. The objective of this study was to ascertain the predictors of treatment success rates under DOTS in Namibia to provide future direction.

METHODS

A nation-wide comparative analysis of predictors of treatment success was undertaken. Tuberculosis cases in the electronic tuberculosis register were retrospectively reviewed over a 10-year period, 2004-2016. The patient, programmatic, clinical, and treatment predictors of treatment success were determined by multivariate logistic regression modeling using R software.

RESULTS

104,603 TB cases were registered at 300 DOTS sites in 37 districts. The 10-year period treatment success rate was 80%, and varied by region (77.2%-89.2%). The patient's sex and age were not significant predictors. The independent predictors for treatment success as were: Region of DOTS implementation (p=0.001), type of directly observed treatment (DOT) supporter (p<0.001), sputum conversion at 2 months (p=0.013), DOT regimen (p<0.001), cotrimoxazole prophylaxis (p=0.002), and HIV co-infection (p=0.001).

CONCLUSION

Targeted programmatic, clinical and treatment interventions are required to enhance DOTS treatment success in Namibia. These are now ongoing.

Evaluating the impact of social support services on tuberculosis treatment default in Ukraine

Ukraine is among the top 20 highest drug-resistant tuberculosis burden countries in the world. Driving the high drug-resistant tuberculosis rates is an unchecked treatment default rate. This evaluation measures the effect of social support provided to tuberculosis patients at risk of defaulting on treatment during outpatient treatment. Five tuberculosis patient cohorts, served in three oblasts from 2011 and 2012, were constructed from medical records to compare risk factors for default, receipt of social services, and treatment outcome. Regression analyses were used to identify risk factors predictive of treatment default and to estimate the impact of the social support program on treatment default, controlling for risk, disease status, and demographics. In 2012, tuberculosis patients receiving social support in Ukraine reduced their probability of defaulting on continuation treatment by 10 percentage points compared to high-risk patients who did not receive social support in 2012 or 2011. Treatment success rates for the high-risk patients receiving social support were comparable to the low-risk cohorts and significantly improved over the high-risk comparison cohorts. Further research is recommended to quantify the costs and benefits for scaling-up social support services, evaluate social support program fidelity, identify which populations respond best to select services, and what barriers might still exist to achieve better adherence. With that information, tailoring programs to most effectively reach and serve clients in a patient-centered approach may reap substantial rewards for Ukraine.

Tuberculosis control interventions targeted to previously treated people in a high-incidence setting: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

In high-incidence settings, recurrent disease among previously treated individuals contributes substantially to the burden of incident and prevalent tuberculosis. The extent to which interventions targeted to this high-risk group can improve tuberculosis control has not been established. We aimed to project the population-level effect of control interventions targeted to individuals with a history of previous tuberculosis treatment in a high-incidence setting.

METHODS

We developed a transmission-dynamic model of tuberculosis and HIV in a high-incidence setting with a population of roughly 40 000 people in suburban Cape Town, South Africa. The model was calibrated to data describing local demography, TB and HIV prevalence, TB case notifications and treatment outcomes using a Bayesian calibration approach. We projected the effect of annual targeted active case finding in all individuals who had previously completed tuberculosis treatment and targeted active case finding combined with lifelong secondary isoniazid preventive therapy. We estimated the effect of these targeted interventions on local tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality over a 10 year period (2016-25).

FINDINGS

We projected that, under current control efforts in this setting, the tuberculosis epidemic will remain in slow decline for at least the next decade. Additional interventions targeted to previously treated people could greatly accelerate these declines. We projected that annual targeted active case finding combined with secondary isoniazid preventive therapy in those who previously completed tuberculosis treatment would avert 40% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 21-56) of incident tuberculosis cases and 41% (16-55) of tuberculosis deaths occurring between 2016 and 2025.

INTERPRETATION

In this high-incidence setting, the use of targeted active case finding in combination with secondary isoniazid preventive therapy in previously treated individuals could accelerate decreases in tuberculosis morbidity and mortality. Studies to measure cost and resource implications are needed to establish the feasibility of this type of targeted approach for improving tuberculosis control in settings with high tuberculosis and HIV prevalence.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health, German Research Foundation.

Do retreatment tuberculosis patients need special treatment response follow-up beyond the standard regimen? Finding of five-year retrospective study in pastoralist setting

BACKGROUND

Treatment outcomes serve as proxy measures of the quality of tuberculosis treatment provided by the health care system, and it is essential to evaluate the effectiveness of Directly Observed Therapy-Short course program in controlling the disease, and reducing treatment failure, default and death. Hence, we evaluated tuberculosis treatment success rate, its trends and predictors of unsuccessful treatment outcome in Ethiopian Somali region where 85% of its population is pastoralist.

METHODS

A retrospective review of 5 years data (September 2009 to August 2014) was conducted to evaluate the treatment outcome of 1378 randomly selected tuberculosis patients treated in Kharamara, Dege-habour and Gode hospitals. We extracted data on socio-demographics, HIV Sero-status, tuberculosis type, treatment outcome and year using clinical chart abstraction sheet. Tuberculosis treatment outcomes were categorized into successful (cured and/or completed) and unsuccessful (died/failed/default) according to the national tuberculosis guideline. Data was entered using EpiData 3.1 and analyzed using SPSS 20. Chi-square (χ2) test and logistic regression model were used to reveal the predictors of unsuccessful treatment outcome at P ≤ 0.05 significance level.

RESULT

The majority of participants was male (59.1%), pulmonary smear negative (49.2%) and new cases (90.6%). The median age was 26 years [IQR: 18-40] and HIV co-infection rate was 4.6%. The overall treatment success rate was 86.8% [95%CI: 84.9% - 88.5%]; however, 4.8%, 7.6% and 0.7% of patients died, defaulted and failed to cure respectively. It fluctuated across the years and ranged from 76.9% to 94% [p < 0.001]. The odds of death/failure [AOR = 2.4; 95%CI = 1.4-3.9] and pulmonary smear positivity [AOR = 2.3; 95%CI = 1.6-3.5] were considerably higher among retreatment patients compared to new counterparts. Unsuccessful treatment outcome was significantly higher in less urbanized hospitals [p < 0.001]. Treatment success rate had insignificant difference between age groups, genders, tuberculosis types and HIV status (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

This study revealed that the overall tuberculosis treatment success rate has realized the global target for 2011-2015. However, it does not guarantee its continuity as adverse treatment outcomes might unpredictably occur anytime and anywhere. Therefore, continual effort to effectively execute DOTS should be strengthened and special follow-up mechanism should be in place to monitor treatment response of retreatment cases.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis treatment shortening: a model-based analysis

Background

Despite improvements in treatment success rates for tuberculosis (TB), current six-month regimen duration remains a challenge for many National TB Programmes, health systems, and patients. There is increasing investment in the development of shortened regimens with a number of candidates in phase 3 trials.

Methods

We developed an individual-based decision analytic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical four-month regimen for first-line treatment of TB, assuming non-inferiority to current regimens of six-month duration. The model was populated using extensive, empirically-collected data to estimate the economic impact on both health systems and patients of regimen shortening for first-line TB treatment in South Africa, Brazil, Bangladesh, and Tanzania. We explicitly considered ‘real world’ constraints such as sub-optimal guideline adherence.

Results

From a societal perspective, a shortened regimen, priced at USD1 per day, could be a cost-saving option in South Africa, Brazil, and Tanzania, but would not be cost-effective in Bangladesh when compared to one gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Incorporating ‘real world’ constraints reduces cost-effectiveness. Patient-incurred costs could be reduced in all settings. From a health service perspective, increased drug costs need to be balanced against decreased delivery costs. The new regimen would remain a cost-effective option, when compared to each countries’ GDP per capita, even if new drugs cost up to USD7.5 and USD53.8 per day in South Africa and Brazil; this threshold was above USD1 in Tanzania and under USD1 in Bangladesh.

Conclusion

Reducing the duration of first-line TB treatment has the potential for substantial economic gains from a patient perspective. The potential economic gains for health services may also be important, but will be context-specific and dependent on the appropriate pricing of any new regimen.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-2064-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Predictors of Default from Treatment for Tuberculosis: a Single Center Case-Control Study in Korea

Default from tuberculosis (TB) treatment could exacerbate the disease and result in the emergence of drug resistance. This study identified the risk factors for default from TB treatment in Korea. This single-center case-control study analyzed 46 default cases and 100 controls. Default was defined as interrupting treatment for 2 or more consecutive months. The reasons for default were mainly incorrect perception or information about TB (41.3%) and experience of adverse events due to TB drugs (41.3%). In univariate analysis, low income (< 2,000 US dollars/month, 88.1% vs. 68.4%, P = 0.015), absence of TB stigma (4.3% vs. 61.3%, P < 0.001), treatment by a non-pulmonologist (74.1% vs. 25.9%, P < 0.001), history of previous treatment (37.0% vs. 19.0%, P = 0.019), former defaulter (15.2% vs. 2.0%, P = 0.005), and combined extrapulmonary TB (54.3% vs. 34.0%, P = 0.020) were significant risk factors for default. In multivariate analysis, the absence of TB stigma (adjusted odd ratio [aOR]: 46.299, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.078-265.365, P < 0.001), treatment by a non-pulmonologist (aOR: 14.567, 95% CI: 3.260-65.089, P < 0.001), former defaulters (aOR: 33.226, 95% CI: 2.658-415.309, P = 0.007), and low income (aOR: 5.246, 95% CI: 1.249-22.029, P = 0.024) were independent predictors of default from TB treatment. In conclusion, patients with absence of disease stigma, treated by a non-pulmonologist, who were former defaulters, and with low income should be carefully monitored during TB treatment in Korea to avoid treatment default.

Prognostic factors in tuberculosis related mortalities in hospitalized patients

Setting. The study was undertaken at the Department of Pulmonology at a public, tertiary care centre in Karachi, Pakistan. Objectives. To evaluate factors concerned with in-hospital deaths in patients admitted with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB). Design. A retrospective case-control audit was performed for 120 patients hospitalised with pulmonary TB. Sixty of those discharged after treatment were compared to sixty who did not survive. Radiological findings, clinical indicators, and laboratory values were compared between the two groups to identify factors related to poor prognosis. Results. Factors concerned with in-hospital mortality listed late presentation of disease (P < 0.01), noncompliance to antituberculosis therapy (P < 0.01), smoking (P < 0.01), longer duration of illness prior to treatment (P < 0.01), and low body weight (P < 0.01). Most deaths occurred during the first week of admission (P < 0.01) indicating late referrals as significant. Immunocompromised status and multi-drug resistance were not implicated in higher mortality. Conclusions. Poor prognosis was associated with noncompliance to therapy resulting in longer duration of illness, late patient referrals to care centres, and development of complications. Early diagnosis, timely referrals, and monitored compliance may help reduce mortality. Adherence to a more radically effective treatment regimen is required to eliminate TB early during disease onset.

Treatment default amongst patients with tuberculosis in urban Morocco: predicting and explaining default and post-default sputum smear and drug susceptibility results

Setting

Public tuberculosis (TB) clinics in urban Morocco.

Objective

Explore risk factors for TB treatment default and develop a prediction tool. Assess consequences of default, specifically risk for transmission or development of drug resistance.

Design

Case-control study comparing patients who defaulted from TB treatment and patients who completed it using quantitative methods and open-ended questions. Results were interpreted in light of health professionals’ perspectives from a parallel study. A predictive model and simple tool to identify patients at high risk of default were developed. Sputum from cases with pulmonary TB was collected for smear and drug susceptibility testing.

Results

91 cases and 186 controls enrolled. Independent risk factors for default included current smoking, retreatment, work interference with adherence, daily directly observed therapy, side effects, quick symptom resolution, and not knowing one’s treatment duration. Age >50 years, never smoking, and having friends who knew one’s diagnosis were protective. A simple scoring tool incorporating these factors was 82.4% sensitive and 87.6% specific for predicting default in this population. Clinicians and patients described additional contributors to default and suggested locally-relevant intervention targets. Among 89 cases with pulmonary TB, 71% had sputum that was smear positive for TB. Drug resistance was rare.

Conclusion

The causes of default from TB treatment were explored through synthesis of qualitative and quantitative data from patients and health professionals. A scoring tool with high sensitivity and specificity to predict default was developed. Prospective evaluation of this tool coupled with targeted interventions based on our findings is warranted. Of note, the risk of TB transmission from patients who default treatment to others is likely to be high. The commonly-feared risk of drug resistance, though, may be low; a larger study is required to confirm these findings.

The temporal dynamics of relapse and reinfection tuberculosis after successful treatment: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is increasing evidence from tuberculosis high-burden settings that exogenous reinfection contributes considerably to recurrent disease. However, large longitudinal studies of endogenous reactivation (relapse) and reinfection tuberculosis are lacking. We hypothesize a relationship between relapse vs reinfection and the time between treatment completion and recurrent disease.

METHODS

Population-based retrospective cohort study on all smear-positive tuberculosis cases successfully treated between 1996 and 2008 in a suburban setting in Cape Town, South Africa. Inverse gaussian distributions were fitted to observed annual rates of relapse and reinfection, distinguished by DNA fingerprinting of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains recultured from diagnostic samples.

RESULTS

Paired DNA fingerprint data were available for 130 (64%) of 203 recurrent smear-positive tuberculosis cases in the 13-year study period. Reinfection accounted for 66 (51%) of 130 recurrent cases overall, 9 (20%) of 44 recurrent cases within the first year, and 57 (66%) of 86 thereafter (P < .001). The relapse rate peaked at 3.93% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.35%-5.96%) per annum 0.35 (95% CI, .15-.45) years after treatment completion. The reinfection tuberculosis rate peaked at 1.58% (95% CI, .94%-2.46%) per annum 1.20 (95% CI, .55-1.70) years after completion.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first study of sufficient size and duration using DNA fingerprinting to investigate tuberculosis relapse and reinfection over a lengthy period. Relapse occurred early after treatment completion, whereas reinfection dominated after 1 year and accounted for at least half of recurrent disease. This temporal relationship may explain the high variability in reinfection observed across smaller studies. We speculate that follow-up time in antituberculosis drug trials should take reinfection into account.