Ecological factors driving avian influenza virus dynamics in Spanish wetland ecosystems

Spatio-temporal dynamics and drivers of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Chile

Introduction

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b (hereafter H5N1) is causing vast impacts on biodiversity and poultry around the globe. In Chile, lethal H5N1 cases have been reported in a wide range of wild bird species, marine mammals, backyard and industrial poultry, and humans. This study describes the spatio-temporal patterns of the current epizootic of H5N1 in Chile and test drivers that could be associated with outbreak occurrence.

Methods

We used H5N1 cases reported by the Chilean National Animal Health Authority from 5 December 2022 to 5 April 2023. These included wild bird cases confirmed through an avian influenza-specific real-time reverse transcription PCR assay (RT-qPCR), obtained from passive and active surveillance. Data were analyzed to detect the presence of H5N1 clusters under space-time permutation probability modeling, the association of H5N1 with distance and days since the first outbreak through linear regression, and the correlation of H5N1 presence with a number of ecological and anthropogenic variables using general linear modeling.

Results

From 445 H5N1 identified outbreaks involving 613 individual cases in wild birds, a consistent wave-like spread of H5N1 from north to south was identified, which may help predict hotspots of outbreak risk. For instance, seven statistically significant clusters were identified in central and northern Chile, where poultry production and wildlife mortality are concentrated. The presence of outbreaks was correlated with landscape-scale variables, notably temperature range, bird richness, and human footprint.

Discussion

In less than a year, H5N1 has been associated with the unusual mortality of >100,000 individuals of wild animals in Chile, mainly coastal birds and marine mammals. It is urgent that scientists, the poultry sector, local communities, and national health authorities co-design and implement science-based measures from a One Health perspective to avoid further H5N1 spillover from wildlife to domestic animals and humans, including rapid removal and proper disposal of wild dead animals and the closure of public areas (e.g., beaches) reporting high wildlife mortalities.

Remote Sensing and Ecological Variables Related to Influenza A Prevalence and Subtype Diversity in Wild Birds in the Lluta Wetland of Northern Chile

The Lluta River is the northernmost coastal wetland in Chile, representing a unique ecosystem and an important source of water in the extremely arid Atacama Desert. During peak season, the wetland is home to more than 150 species of wild birds and is the first stopover point for many migratory species that arrive in the country along the Pacific migratory route, thereby representing a priority site for avian influenza virus (AIV) surveillance in Chile. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of influenza A virus (IAV) in the Lluta River wetland, identify subtype diversity, and evaluate ecological and environmental factors that drive the prevalence at the study site. The wetland was studied and sampled from September 2015 to October 2020. In each visit, fresh fecal samples of wild birds were collected for IAV detection by real-time RT-PCR. Furthermore, a count of wild birds present at the site was performed and environmental variables, such as temperature, rainfall, vegetation coverage (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index-NDVI), and water body size were determined. A generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) was built to assess the association between AIV prevalence and explanatory variables. Influenza positive samples were sequenced, and the host species was determined by barcoding. Of the 4349 samples screened during the study period, overall prevalence in the wetland was 2.07% (95% CI: 1.68 to 2.55) and monthly prevalence of AIV ranged widely from 0% to 8.6%. Several hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) subtypes were identified, and 10 viruses were isolated and sequenced, including low pathogenic H5, H7, and H9 strains. In addition, several reservoir species were recognized (both migratory and resident birds), including the newly identified host Chilean flamingo (Phoenicopterus chilensis). Regarding environmental variables, prevalence of AIV was positively associated with NDVI (OR = 3.65, p < 0.05) and with the abundance of migratory birds (OR = 3.57, p < 0.05). These results emphasize the importance of the Lluta wetland as a gateway to Chile for viruses that come from the Northern Hemisphere and contribute to the understanding of AIV ecological drivers.

Special Issue "Ecology of Influenza A Viruses": Editorial

Wild aquatic birds constitute the main natural reservoir of the influenza A virus (IAV) gene pool, from which novel IAVs can emerge to infect other animals including avian and mammalian species [...].

A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND NARRATIVE SYNTHESIS OF THE USE OF ENVIRONMENTAL SAMPLES FOR THE SURVEILLANCE OF AVIAN INFLUENZA VIRUSES IN WILD WATERBIRDS

Wild waterbirds are reservoir hosts for avian influenza viruses (AIV), which can cause devastating outbreaks in multiple species, making them a focus for surveillance efforts. Traditional AIV surveillance involves direct sampling of live or dead birds, but environmental substrates present an alternative sample for surveillance. Environmental sampling analyzes AIV excreted by waterbirds into the environment and complements direct bird sampling by minimizing financial, logistic, permitting, and spatial-temporal constraints associated with traditional surveillance. Our objectives were to synthesize the literature on environmental AIV surveillance, to compare and contrast the different sample types, and to identify key themes and recommendations to aid in the implementation of AIV surveillance using environmental samples. The four main environmental substrates for AIV surveillance are feces, feathers, water, and sediment or soil. Feces were the most common environmental substrate collected. The laboratory analysis of water and sediment provided challenges, such as low AIV concentration, heterogenous AIV distribution, or presence of PCR inhibitors. There are a number of abiotic and biotic environmental factors, including temperature, pH, salinity, or presence of filter feeders, that can influence the presence and persistence of AIV in environmental substrates; however, the nature of this influence is poorly understood in field settings, and field data from southern, coastal, and tropical ecosystems are underrepresented. Similarly, there are few studies comparing the performance of environmental samples to each other and to samples collected in wild waterbirds, and environmental surveillance workflows have yet to be validated or optimized. Environmental samples, particularly when used in combination with new technology such as environmental DNA and next generation sequencing, provided information on trends in AIV detection rates and circulating subtypes that complemented traditional, direct waterbird sampling. The use of environmental samples for AIV surveillance also shows significant promise for programs whose goal is early warning of high-risk subtypes.

Avian Influenza in Wild Birds and Poultry: Dissemination Pathways, Monitoring Methods, and Virus Ecology

Avian influenza is one of the largest known threats to domestic poultry. Influenza outbreaks on poultry farms typically lead to the complete slaughter of the entire domestic bird population, causing severe economic losses worldwide. Moreover, there are highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strains that are able to infect the swine or human population in addition to their primary avian host and, as such, have the potential of being a global zoonotic and pandemic threat. Migratory birds, especially waterfowl, are a natural reservoir of the avian influenza virus; they carry and exchange different virus strains along their migration routes, leading to antigenic drift and antigenic shift, which results in the emergence of novel HPAI viruses. This requires monitoring over time and in different locations to allow for the upkeep of relevant knowledge on avian influenza virus evolution and the prevention of novel epizootic and epidemic outbreaks. In this review, we assess the role of migratory birds in the spread and introduction of influenza strains on a global level, based on recent data. Our analysis sheds light on the details of viral dissemination linked to avian migration, the viral exchange between migratory waterfowl and domestic poultry, virus ecology in general, and viral evolution as a process tightly linked to bird migration. We also provide insight into methods used to detect and quantify avian influenza in the wild. This review may be beneficial for the influenza research community and may pave the way to novel strategies of avian influenza and HPAI zoonosis outbreak monitoring and prevention.

Temporal dynamics and the influence of environmental variables on the prevalence of avian influenza virus in main wetlands in central Chile

Although wild birds are considered the main reservoir of the influenza A virus (IAV) in nature, empirical investigations exploring the interaction between the IAV prevalence in these populations and environmental drivers remain scarce. Chile has a coastline of more than 4000 kilometres with hundreds of wetlands, which are important habitats for both resident and inter-hemispheric migratory species. The aim of this study was to characterize the temporal dynamics of IAV in main wetlands in central Chile and to assess the influence of environmental variables on AIV prevalence. For that purpose, four wetlands were studied from September 2015 to June 2018. Fresh faecal samples of wild birds were collected for IAV detection by real-time RT-PCR. Furthermore, a count of wild birds present at the site was performed and environmental variables, such as temperature, rainfall, vegetation coverage (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)) and water body size, were determined. A generalized linear mixed model was built to assess the association between IAV prevalence and explanatory variables. An overall prevalence of 4.28% ± 0.28% was detected with important fluctuations among seasons, being greater during summer (OR = 4.87, 95% CI 2.11 to 11.21) and fall (OR = 2.59, 95% CI 1.12 to 5.97). Prevalence was positively associated with minimum temperature for the month of sampling and negatively associated with water body size measured two months before sampling, and NDVI measured three months before sampling. These results contribute to the understanding of IAV ecological drivers in Chilean wetlands providing important considerations for the global surveillance of IAV.

Naturally Avian Influenza Virus-Infected Wild Birds Are More Likely to Test Positive for Mycobacterium spp. and Salmonella spp

Wild birds often harbor infectious microorganisms. Some of these infectious microorganisms may present a risk to domestic animals and humans through spillover events. Detections of certain microorganisms have been shown to increase host susceptibility to infections by other microorganisms, leading to coinfections and altered host-to-host transmission patterns. However, little is known about the frequency of coinfections and its impact on wild bird populations. In order to verify whether avian influenza virus (AIV) natural infection in wild waterbirds was related to the excretion of other microorganisms, 73 AIV-positive samples (feces and cloacal swabs) were coupled with 73 AIV-negative samples of the same sampling characteristics and tested by real-time PCR specific for the following microorganisms: West Nile virus, avian avulavirus 1, Salmonella spp., Yersinia enterocolitica, Yersinia pseudotuberculosis, Mycobacterium avium subspecies, Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex, and Mycobacterium spp. Concurrent detections were found in 47.9% (35/73) of the AIV-positive samples and in 23.3% (17/73) of the AIV-negative samples (P = 0.003). Mycobacterium spp. and Salmonella spp. were found to be significantly more prevalent among the AIV-positive samples than among the AIV-negative samples (42.9% vs. 22.8%; P = 0.024 and 15.2% vs. 0.0%; P = 0.0015, respectively). Prevalence of concurrent detections differed significantly among sampling years (P = 0.001), host families (P = 0.002), host species (P = 0.003), AIV subtypes (P = 0.003), and type of sample (P = 0.009). Multiple concurrent detections (more than one of the tested microorganisms excluding AIV) were found in 9.6% (7/73) of all the AIV-positive samples, accounting for 20% (7/35) of the concurrent detection cases. In contrast, in AIV-negative samples we never detected more than one of the selected microorganisms. These results show that AIV detection was associated with the detection of the monitored microorganisms. Further studies of a larger field sample set or under experimental conditions are necessary to infer causality in these trends.

Long-term avian influenza virus epidemiology in a small Spanish wetland ecosystem is driven by the breeding Anseriformes community

During 2007-2009 and 2012-2014, avian influenza virus (AIV) was studied in a wild avian community of a northern Spanish wetland using non-invasive sampling methods and host identification by COI barcoding. The aim of this longitudinal study was to evaluate AIV dynamics in a natural wetland ecosystem, taking into account both virological aspects and ecological traits of hosts. Global AIV prevalence decreased significantly during the second sampling period (0.3%) compared to the first (6.6%). Circulating subtype distributions were also different between periods, with a noteworthy H5 and H7 subtype richness during the first sampling period. Mallard Anas platyrhynchos was identified as the main AIV host, although not all positive samples could be ascribed to the host. We modelled AIV prevalence with regard to the avian host community composition and meteorological data from the wetland. Statistical analysis revealed seasonal differences in AIV detection, with higher prevalence during the breeding season compared to other phenological events. The model also shows that the lower AIV prevalence during the second study period was associated with a significant reduction of breeding Anseriformes in the wetland, revealing a long-term fluctuation of AIV prevalence driven by the breeding Anseriformes community. This longitudinal study on AIV epidemiology in a natural ecosystem reveals that although prevalence follows seasonal and annual patterns, long-term prevalence fluctuation is linked to the breeding community composition and size. These results are relevant to understanding the influence of host ecology on pathogen transmission for preventing and managing influenza emergence.

Epidemiological survey of equine influenza in Andalusia, Spain

Equine influenza is a highly contagious respiratory disease considered the most important respiratory disease in equids. Although influenza A virus (IAV) has caused outbreaks in equids worldwide, surveillance in these species in Spain has not been conducted. A cross-sectional study was carried out to determine the individual and herd prevalence of antibodies against H3N8 and H7N7 IAV in equids in Andalusia (southern Spain). Antibodies againsts IAV were measured by the single radial haemolysis assay. A spatial scan statistical analysis was carried out using a Bernoulli model. Risk factors associated with IAV infection were assessed by multivariate analysis. Antibodies to H3N8 IAV were detected in 241 out of 464 unvaccinated equids (51.9%; 95% CI: 47.4-56.5). Seropositivity against the H7N7 subtype IAV was not found in any of the analysed animals. Significantly higher seropositivity was found in geriatric (OR = 6.1, P = 0.008, 95% CI = 1.6-23.1) and adult (OR = 4.8, P < 0.001, 95% CI = 2.5-9.0) equids compared to young animals. Specific antibodies against A/equine/Shropshire/2010 (H3N8) or A/equine/Newmarket/5/2003 (H3N8) only were confirmed in 11 and 45 of the animals, respectively. The spatial analysis showed a statistically significant cluster centred in the west part of Andalusia. The results confirmed widespread H3N8 subtype IAV exposure in equine species in Andalusia. Conversely, the absence of seropositivity against H7N7 IAV obtained in the present study suggests that this subtype has not circulated in southern Spain in recent years. Because of the animal health and economic consequences of IAV in equids, further surveillance and molecular studies are required to monitor and characterize the most prevalent IAV circulating in these species in Spain.

Avian Influenza Virus Surveillance in South-Central Spain Using Fecal Samples of Aquatic Birds Foraging at Landfills

Aquatic wild birds have been intensively studied to better understand their role in avian influenza virus (AIV) maintenance and spread. To date, AIV surveillance has primarily focused on natural aquatic environments where different bird species aggregate and viral survival is enhanced. However, artificial habitats such as landfills are attracting substantial numbers of wild birds, AIV reservoir species included. The use of landfills as a predictable food source has significantly influenced population size, migratory traits, and feeding behavior of white storks (Ciconia ciconia) and black-headed gulls (Chroicocephalus ridibundus) among others. Considering the proximity of landfills to urban settlements and frequently poultry-farms, targeted monitoring of AIV in bird species that forage at landfills but are known to also frequent urban and agricultural habitats could be a useful means for monitoring of AIV, especially during periods of bird aggregation. During the wintering season 2014-2015, the prevalence of AIV in five avian species at two landfills in South-Central Spain was explored by rRT-PCR and species related temporal variation in AIV prevalence determined. We collected and tested 1,186 fresh fecal samples from white storks (N = 689), cattle egrets (Bubulcus ibis, N = 116) and mixed flocks of gulls (N = 381) as well as cloacal and oral swabs from five birds found dead. Seven samples contained AIV, five from gulls and one each from a stork and a cattle egret. Overall, AIV prevalence was 0.60%. No significant temporal variation was observed in AIV prevalence. Prevalence differed significantly among the sampled taxonomic groups, being highest in gulls (1.31%). H16N3 subtype was detected from a cattle egret and H11N9 subtype from a white stork, whereas gulls harbored both subtypes in addition to H11N3 subtype. H16 subtype detection in a cattle egret evidences its host range may not be restricted to gulls. Our results indicate that wild birds foraging at landfills may carry different LPAIV subtypes.

Avian influenza

Previous introductions of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) to the EU were most likely via migratory wild birds. A mathematical model has been developed which indicated that virus amplification and spread may take place when wild bird populations of sufficient size within EU become infected. Low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) may reach similar maximum prevalence levels in wild bird populations to HPAIV but the risk of LPAIV infection of a poultry holding was estimated to be lower than that of HPAIV. Only few non-wild bird pathways were identified having a non-negligible risk of AI introduction. The transmission rate between animals within a flock is assessed to be higher for HPAIV than LPAIV. In very few cases, it could be proven that HPAI outbreaks were caused by intrinsic mutation of LPAIV to HPAIV but current knowledge does not allow a prediction as to if, and when this could occur. In gallinaceous poultry, passive surveillance through notification of suspicious clinical signs/mortality was identified as the most effective method for early detection of HPAI outbreaks. For effective surveillance in anseriform poultry, passive surveillance through notification of suspicious clinical signs/mortality needs to be accompanied by serological surveillance and/or a virological surveillance programme of birds found dead (bucket sampling). Serosurveillance is unfit for early warning of LPAI outbreaks at the individual holding level but could be effective in tracing clusters of LPAIV-infected holdings. In wild birds, passive surveillance is an appropriate method for HPAIV surveillance if the HPAIV infections are associated with mortality whereas active wild bird surveillance has a very low efficiency for detecting HPAIV. Experts estimated and emphasised the effect of implementing specific biosecurity measures on reducing the probability of AIV entering into a poultry holding. Human diligence is pivotal to select, implement and maintain specific, effective biosecurity measures.

Assessment of listing and categorisation of animal diseases within the framework of the Animal Health Law (Regulation (EU) No 2016/429): low pathogenic avian influenza

Low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) has been assessed according to the criteria of the Animal Health Law (AHL), in particular criteria of Article 7 on disease profile and impacts, Article 5 on the eligibility of LPAI to be listed, Article 9 for the categorisation of LPAI according to disease prevention and control rules as in Annex IV and Article 8 on the list of animal species related to LPAI. The assessment has been performed following a methodology composed of information collection and compilation, expert judgement on each criterion at individual and, if no consensus was reached before, also at collective levels. The output is composed of the categorical answer, and for the questions where no consensus was reached, the different supporting views are reported. Details on the methodology used for this assessment are explained in a separate opinion. According to the assessment performed, LPAI can be considered eligible to be listed for Union intervention as laid down in Article 5(3) of the AHL. The disease would comply with the criteria as in Sections 3 and 5 of Annex IV of the AHL, for the application of the disease prevention and control rules referred to in points (c) and (e) of Article 9(1). The animal species to be listed for LPAI according to Article 8(3) criteria are all species of domestic poultry and wild species of mainly Anseriformes and Charadriiformes, as indicated in the present opinion.

Decline in an Atlantic Puffin Population: Evaluation of Magnitude and Mechanisms

Determining which demographic and ecological parameters contribute to variation in population growth rate is crucial to understanding the dynamics of declining populations. This study aimed to evaluate the magnitude and mechanisms of an apparent major decline in an Atlantic Puffin Fratercula arctica population. This was achieved using a 27-year dataset to estimate changes in population size and in two key demographic rates: adult survival and breeding success. Estimated demographic variation was then related to two ecological factors hypothesised to be key drivers of demographic change, namely the abundance of the main predator at the study site, the Great Skua Stercorarius skua, and Atlantic Puffin chick food supply, over the same 27-year period. Using a population model, we assessed whether estimated variation in adult survival and reproductive success was sufficient to explain the population change observed. Estimates of Atlantic Puffin population size decreased considerably during the study period, approximately halving, whereas Great Skua population estimates increased, approximately trebling. Estimated adult Atlantic Puffin survival remained high across all years and did not vary with Great Skua abundance; however, Atlantic Puffin breeding success and quantities of fish prey brought ashore by adults both decreased substantially through the period. A population model combining best possible demographic parameter estimates predicted rapid population growth, at odds with the long-term decrease observed. To simulate the observed decrease, population models had to incorporate low immature survival, high immature emigration, or increasingly high adult non-breeding rates. We concluded that reduced recruitment of immatures into the breeding population was the most likely cause of population decrease. This study showed that increase in the size of a predator population does not always impact on the survival of adult prey and that reduced recruitment can be a crucial determinant of seabird population size but can easily go undetected.

Surveillance of influenza viruses in waterfowl used as decoys in Andalusia, Spain

A longitudinal study was carried out to determine the seroprevalence of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in waterfowl used as decoys in Andalusia, southern Spain. A total of 2319 aquatic birds from 193 flocks were analyzed before and after the hunting season 2011-2012. In the first sampling, 403 out of 2319 (18.0%, CI95%: 15.8-19.0) decoys showed antibodies against AIVs by ELISA. The AI seroprevalence was significantly higher in geese (21.0%) than in ducks (11.7%) (P<0.001). Besides, the spatial distribution of AIVs was not homogeneous as significant differences among regions were observed. The prevalence of antibodies against AIVs subtypes H5 and H7 were 1.1% and 0.3%, respectively, using hemagglutination inhibition test (HI). The overall and H5 seroprevalences slightly increased after the hunting period (to 19.2% and 1.4%, respectively), while the H7 seroprevalence remained at the same level (0.3%). The proportion of flocks infected by AIVs was 65.3%, while 11.2% and 4.9% of flocks were positive for H5 and H7, respectively. Viral shedding was not detected in any of the 47 samples positive by both ELISA and HI, tested by RRT-PCR. The individual incidence after the hunting season was 3.4%. The fact that 57 animals seroconverted, 15 of which were confirmed by HI (12 H5 and 3 H7), was indication of contact with AIVs during the hunting period. The results indicate that waterfowl used as decoys are frequently exposed to AIVs and may be potentially useful as sentinels for AIVs monitoring. The seroprevalence detected and the seropositivity against AIVs H5 and H7, suggest that decoys can act as reservoirs of AIVs, which may be of animal and public health concern.

Accumulation and inactivation of avian influenza virus by the filter-feeding invertebrate Daphnia magna

The principal mode of avian influenza A virus (AIV) transmission among wild birds is thought to occur via an indirect fecal-oral route, whereby individuals are exposed to virus from the environment through contact with virus-contaminated water. AIV can remain viable for an extended time in water; however, little is known regarding the influence of the biotic community (i.e., aquatic invertebrates) on virus persistence and infectivity in aquatic environments. We conducted laboratory experiments to investigate the ability of an aquatic filter-feeding invertebrate, Daphnia magna, to accumulate virus from AIV-dosed water under the hypothesis that they represent a potential vector of AIV to waterfowl hosts. We placed live daphnids in test tubes dosed with low-pathogenicity AIV (H3N8 subtype isolated from a wild duck) and sampled Daphnia tissue and the surrounding water using reverse transcription-quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) at 3- to 120-min intervals for up to 960 min following dosing. Concentrations of viral RNA averaged 3 times higher in Daphnia tissue than the surrounding water shortly after viral exposure, but concentrations decreased exponentially through time for both. Extracts from Daphnia tissue were negative for AIV by cell culture, whereas AIV remained viable in water without Daphnia present. Our results suggest daphnids can accumulate AIV RNA and effectively remove virus particles from water. Although concentrations of viral RNA were consistently higher in Daphnia tissue than the water, additional research is needed on the time scale of AIV inactivation after Daphnia ingestion to fully elucidate Daphnia's role as a potential vector of AIV infection to aquatic birds.

Sex-biased differences in the effects of host individual, host population and environmental traits driving tick parasitism in red deer

The interactions between host individual, host population, and environmental factors modulate parasite abundance in a given host population. Since adult exophilic ticks are highly aggregated in red deer (Cervus elaphus) and this ungulate exhibits significant sexual size dimorphism, life history traits and segregation, we hypothesized that tick parasitism on males and hinds would be differentially influenced by each of these factors. To test the hypothesis, ticks from 306 red deer-182 males and 124 females-were collected during 7 years in a red deer population in south-central Spain. By using generalized linear models, with a negative binomial error distribution and a logarithmic link function, we modeled tick abundance on deer with 20 potential predictors. Three models were developed: one for red deer males, another for hinds, and one combining data for males and females and including "sex" as factor. Our rationale was that if tick burdens on males and hinds relate to the explanatory factors in a differential way, it is not possible to precisely and accurately predict the tick burden on one sex using the model fitted on the other sex, or with the model that combines data from both sexes. Our results showed that deer males were the primary target for ticks, the weight of each factor differed between sexes, and each sex specific model was not able to accurately predict burdens on the animals of the other sex. That is, results support for sex-biased differences. The higher weight of host individual and population factors in the model for males show that intrinsic deer factors more strongly explain tick burden than environmental host-seeking tick abundance. In contrast, environmental variables predominated in the models explaining tick burdens in hinds.