Contrasting effects of climate change on rabbit populations through reproduction

Relying on Incomplete Information Can Lead to the Wrong Conclusions. Comment on van Hassel, F.; Bovenkerk, B. How Should We Help Wild Animals Cope with Climate Change? The Case of the Iberian Lynx. Animals 2023, 13, 453

In their recent paper, Van Hassel and Bovenkerk [...].

A Simplified Population-Level Landscape Model Identifying Ecological Risk Drivers of Pesticide Applications, Part One: Case Study for Large Herbivorous Mammals

Environmental risk assessment is a key process for the authorization of pesticides, and is subjected to continuous challenges and updates. Current approaches are based on standard scenarios and independent substance-crop assessments. This arrangement does not address the complexity of agricultural ecosystems with mammals feeding on different crops. This work presents a simplified model for regulatory use addressing landscape variability, co-exposure to several pesticides, and predicting the effect on population abundance. The focus is on terrestrial vertebrates and the aim is the identification of the key risk drivers impacting on mid-term population dynamics. The model is parameterized for EU assessments according to the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Guidance Document, but can be adapted to other regulatory schemes. The conceptual approach includes two modules: (a) the species population dynamics, and (b) the population impact of pesticide exposure. Population dynamics is modelled through daily survival and seasonal reproductions rates; which are modified in case of pesticide exposure. All variables, parameters, and functions can be modified. The model has been calibrated with ecological data for wild rabbits and brown hares and tested for two herbicides, glyphosate and bromoxynil, using validated toxicity data extracted from EFSA assessments. Results demonstrate that the information available for a regulatory assessment, according to current EU information requirements, is sufficient for predicting the impact and possible consequences at population dynamic levels. The model confirms that agroecological parameters play a key role when assessing the effect of pesticide exposure on population abundance. The integration of laboratory toxicity studies with this simplified landscape model allows for the identification of conditions leading to population vulnerability or resilience. An Annex includes a detailed assessment of the model characteristics according to the EFSA scheme on Good Modelling Practice.

Forecast increase in invasive rabbit spread into ecosystems of an oceanic island (Tenerife) under climate change

The European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) is a pest and a conservation problem on many islands, where its heavy grazing pressure threatens many endemic plants with extinction. Previous studies in its native and introduced range have highlighted the high spatial variability of rabbit abundance at local and landscape scales, depending on many factors such as the existence of different habitats. Modeling of the species can be useful to better understand spatial patterns and to prioritize actions, especially in those regions in which rabbits have become invasive. Here, we investigate the distribution of the European rabbit in Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain), where the species was introduced during the 15th century and has subsequently changed vegetation composition. Added to the direct effects of rabbits on vegetation, climate change could also have implications for rabbit populations, especially in the alpine ecosystem. To evaluate that, we estimated rabbit abundance in 216 plots randomly distributed on Tenerife island (61 in the alpine ecosystem), modeled the potential current spatial abundance of the species and considered how it might vary under different climate change scenarios. We associated rabbit abundance to a wide selection of abiotic, biotic, and human variables expected to influence rabbit abundance on the island. We found a positive correlation between rabbit abundance and temperature and a negative correlation in the case of precipitation. Hence, according to the models' projections, climate change is expected to enhance rabbit populations in the future. Current higher densities were related to land disturbance and open areas, and a remarkable increase is expected to occur in the alpine ecosystem. Overall, we consider that this study provides valuable information for land managers in the Canary archipelago as it reveals how global warming could indirectly exacerbate the conservation problems of the endemic flora in oceanic islands.

Survival and habitat use of sympatric lagomorphs in bottomland hardwood forests

Lagomorphs are important consumers and prey in ecosystems worldwide, but have declined due to land use changes and habitat loss, and such losses may be exacerbated for specialist species. We compared survival and habitat use of two closely related lagomorphs, the swamp rabbit (Sylvilagus aquaticus (Bachman, 1837)), a bottomland hardwood (BLH) forest specialist, and the eastern cottontail (Sylvilagus floridanus (J. A. Allen, 1890)), a habitat generalist. We tested whether survival and habitat use differed between radio-collared swamp rabbits (n = 129) and eastern cottontails (n = 72) monitored during December 2009 – December 2013 in southern Illinois. We found interactive effects of species and season on survival rates: swamp rabbits had higher annual survival (0.37 ± 0.05 (estimate ± SE)) than did cottontails (0.20 ± 0.05), but this difference occurred primarily during the growing season. Swamp rabbits were located closer to watercourses in areas characterized by higher basal area and more mature BLH forest cover compared with eastern cottontails. Our results suggest that BLH forests may be marginal habitat for cottontails and indicate predation as the primary cause of mortality for both species. Swamp rabbits use of early-successional BLH forest suggests that restoration efforts have been successful. However, as specialists, swamp rabbits remain restricted to a narrow band of bottomlands near watercourses and may benefit from improved upland cover that serves as refugia from flooding.

Climate change alters the reproductive phenology and investment of a lacustrine fish, the three-spine stickleback

High-latitude lakes are particularly sensitive to the effects of global climate change, demonstrating earlier ice breakup, longer ice-free seasons, and increased water temperatures. Such physical changes have implications for diverse life-history traits in taxa across entire lake food webs. Here, we use a five-decade time series from an Alaskan lake to explore effects of climate change on growth and reproduction of a widely distributed lacustrine fish, the three-spine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We used multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models to describe trends in the mean length for multiple size classes and to explore the influence of physical (date of ice breakup, surface water temperature) and biological (density of con- and heterospecifics) factors. As predicted, mean size of age 1 and older fish at the end of the growing season increased across years with earlier ice breakup and warmer temperatures. In contrast, mean size of age 0 fish decreased over time. Overall, lower fish density and warmer water temperatures were associated with larger size for all cohorts. Earlier ice breakup was associated with larger size for age 1 and older fish but, paradoxically, with smaller size of age 0 fish. To explore this latter result, we used mixing models on age 0 size distributions, which revealed an additional cohort in years with early ice breakup, lowering the mean size of age 0 fish. Moreover, early ice breakup was associated with earlier breeding, evidenced by earlier capture of age 0 fish. Our results suggest that early ice breakup altered both timing and frequency of breeding; three-spine stickleback spawned earlier and more often in response to earlier ice breakup date. While previous studies have shown the influence of changing conditions in northern lakes on breeding timing and growth, this is the first to document increased breeding frequency, highlighting another pathway by which climate change can alter the ecology of northern lakes.

Indirect effects of human-induced environmental change on offspring production mediated by behavioural responses

Human-induced rapid environmental changes often cause behavioural alterations in animals. The consequences that these alterations in turn have for the viability of populations are, however, poorly known. We used a population of threespine sticklebacks Gasterosteus aculeatus in the Baltic Sea to investigate the consequences of behavioural responses to human-induced eutrophication for offspring production. The investigated population has been growing during the last decades, and one cause could be increased offspring production. We combined field-based surveys with laboratory-based experiments, and found that an enhanced growth of macroalgae relaxed agonistic interactions among males. This allowed more males to nest, improved hatching success, and increased the number of reproductive cycles that males completed. Thus, the behavioural responses were adaptive at the individual level and increased offspring production. However, a larger proportion of small males of low competitive ability reproduced in dense vegetation. As male size and dominance are heritable, this could influence the genetic composition of the offspring. Together with a higher number of offspring produced, this could influence natural selection and the rate of adaptation to the changing environment. Thus, behavioural responses to a rapid human-induced environmental change can influence offspring production, with potential consequences for population dynamics and evolutionary processes.