The survival benefit of liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma patients with hepatitis B virus infection and cirrhosis

Diabetes mellitus may affect the long-term survival of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients after liver transplantation

AIM

To determine whether diabetes mellitus (DM) affects prognosis/recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) for hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted between January 2000 and August 2013 on 1631 patients with HBV-related HCC who underwent LT with antiviral prophylaxis. Patient data were obtained from the China Liver Transplant Registry (https://www.cltr.org/). To compare the outcomes and tumor recurrence in the HBV-related HCC patients with or without DM, statistical analyses were conducted using χ² tests, Mann-Whitney tests, the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank tests and multivariate step-wise Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis of 1631 patients who underwent LT found overall 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates of 79%, 73% and 71% respectively in the DM patients, and 84%, 78% and 76% in the non-DM patients respectively. Overall survival rate differences after LT between the two groups were significant (P = 0.041), but recurrence-free survival rates were not (P = 0.096). By stratified analysis, the overall survival rates in DM patients for age > 50 years (P = 0.002), the presence of vascular invasion (P = 0.096), tumors ≤ 3 cm (P = 0.047), two to three tumor nodules (P = 0.007), Child-Pugh grade B (P = 0.018), and pre-LT alanine aminotransferase levels between 40 and 80 IU/L (P = 0.017) were significantly lower than in non-DM patients. Additionally, serum α-fetoprotein level > 2000 ng/mL (P = 0.052) was associated with a significant survival difference trend between DM and non-DM patients. Multivariate analysis showed that the presence of DM (P < 0.001, HR = 1.591; 95%CI: 1.239-2.041) was an independent predictor associated with poor survival after LT.

CONCLUSION

HBV-related HCC patients with DM have decreased long-term overall survival and poor LT outcomes. Prevention strategies for HCC patients with DM are recommended.

Alpha-Fetoprotein Detection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Leads to a Standardized Analysis of Dynamic AFP to Improve Screening Based Detection

Detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) through screening can improve outcomes. However, HCC surveillance remains costly, cumbersome and suboptimal. We tested whether and how serum Alpha-Fetoprotein (AFP) should be used in HCC surveillance. Record linkage, dedicated pathways for management and AFP data-storage identified i) consecutive highly characterised cases of HCC diagnosed in 2009–14 and ii) a cohort of ongoing HCC-free patients undergoing regular HCC surveillance from 2009. These two well-defined Scottish patient cohorts enabled us to test the utility of AFP surveillance. Of 304 cases of HCC diagnosed over 6 years, 42% (129) were identified by a dedicated HCC surveillance programme. Of these 129, 47% (61) had a detectable lesion first identified by screening ultrasound (US) but 38% (49) were prompted by elevated AFP. Despite pre-HCC diagnosis AFP >20kU/L being associated with poor outcome, ‘AFP-detected’ tumours were offered potentially curative management as frequently as ‘US-detected’ HCCs; and had comparable survival. Linearity of serial log₁₀-transformed AFPs in HCC cases and in the screening ‘HCC-free’ cohort (n = 1509) provided indicators of high-risk AFP behaviour in HCC cases. An algorithm was devised in static mode, then tested dynamically. A case/control series in hepatitis C related disease demonstrated highly significant detection (p<1.72*10⁻⁵) of patients at high risk of developing HCC. These data support the use of AFP in HCC surveillance. We show proof-of-principle that an automated and further refine-able algorithmic interpretation of AFP can identify patients at higher risk of HCC. This approach could provide a cost-effective, user-friendly and much needed addition to US surveillance.

Combined Hangzhou criteria with neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio is superior to other criteria in selecting liver transplantation candidates with HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The elevation of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has adverse effects on the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who have received liver transplantation (LT). The Hangzhou criteria are set for selecting HCC patients for LT. The present study aimed to establish a set of new criteria combining the NLR and Hangzhou criteria for selecting HCC patients for LT.

METHODS

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was done to determine the optimal NLR threshold. Univariate and multivariate analyses were made to evaluate the factors affecting the outcomes of HCC patients after LT. We also proposed new criteria consisting of the elevated NLR and Hangzhou criteria. ROC analysis was carried out to validate the feasibility of the new criteria.

RESULTS

Three hundred and five HCC patients were included in this study. The mean follow-up time of these patients was 5.4 years. Of the 305 patients, 197 (64.6%) showed elevated NLRs (NLR > 4). The recurrence-free survival rates of the patients with elevated NLRs at 1, 3 and 5 years were lower than those of the patients with normal NLRs (NLR ≤ 4) (50.1%, 21.7% and 20.2% vs 80.5%, 58.7% and 56.4%, respectively; P < 0.001). The overall survival rate was lower in the patients with elevated NLR than in those with normal NLR at 1, 3 and 5 years (60.8%, 27.0% and 22.5% vs 78.4%, 51.1% and 47.8%, respectively; P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that an NLR > 4 (P = 0.034), total tumor size > 8 cm (P = 0.005), alpha-fetoprotein level > 400 μg/L (P = 0.007) and the presence of vascular invasion (P = 0.003) were independent predictors of HCC recurrence in post-transplant patients. We proposed a set of new criteria based on the elevated NLR and Hangzhou criteria. A ROC analysis demonstrated that the patients with scores ≥ 1 had an area under the curve of 0.764.

CONCLUSION

The criteria combining the elevated NLR and Hangzhou criteria can be used to select patients with HCC for LT.

"Metroticket" predictor for assessing liver transplantation to treat hepatocellular carcinoma: a single-center analysis in mainland China

AIM

To validate the "Metroticket" predictor using a large cohort of liver transplantation (LT) patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in China.

METHODS

In total, 230 cases of LT for HCC treatment at our center, from July 2000 to August 2008, were included in the present study. The predicted 1-, 3- and 5-year post-LT survival rates were calculated using the Metroticket model (http://89.96.76.14/metroticket/calculator/). The predicted and observed long-term survival rates were then compared and analyzed.

RESULTS

The predicted survival rates for all 230 cases, as calculated by the Metroticket model, were 64.7% and 56.2% at 3 and 5 years, respectively, and the observed survival rates for these patients were 71.3% and 57.8%, respectively. For the 23 cases with macrovascular invasion, the predicted 5-year survival rate was 43.5%, whereas the observed 5-year survival rate was only 8.7%. For the 42 cases with microvascular invasion but an absence of macrovascular invasion, the predicted 5-year survival rate was 44.9%, and the observed 5-year survival rate was 50%. For the remaining 165 patients without any vascular invasion, the predicted 5-year survival rate was 65.8%, and the observed 5-year survival rate was 66.7%.

CONCLUSION

The Metroticket model can be used to accurately predict survival in HCC-related LT cases with an absence of macrovascular invasion.