Where have all the parasites gone? Modelling early malaria parasite sequestration dynamics

Challenges in forming inferences from limited data: a case study of malaria parasite maturation

Inferring biological processes from population dynamics is a common challenge in ecology, particularly when faced with incomplete data. This challenge extends to inferring parasite traits from within-host infection dynamics. We focus on rodent malaria infections (Plasmodium berghei), a system for which previous work inferred an immune-mediated extension in the length of the parasite development cycle within red blood cells. By developing a system of delay-differential equations to describe within-host infection dynamics and simulating data, we demonstrate the potential to obtain biased estimates of parasite (and host) traits when key biological processes are not considered. Despite generating infection dynamics using a fixed parasite developmental cycle length, we find that known sources of measurement bias in parasite stage and abundance data can affect estimates of parasite developmental duration, with stage misclassification driving inferences about extended cycle length. We discuss alternative protocols and statistical methods that can mitigate such misestimation.

Within-host modeling of blood-stage malaria

Malaria infection continues to be a major health problem worldwide and drug resistance in the major human parasite species, Plasmodium falciparum, is increasing in South East Asia. Control measures including novel drugs and vaccines are in development, and contributions to the rational design and optimal usage of these interventions are urgently needed. Infection involves the complex interaction of parasite dynamics, host immunity, and drug effects. The long life cycle (48 hours in the common human species) and synchronized replication cycle of the parasite population present significant challenges to modeling the dynamics of Plasmodium infection. Coupled with these, variation in immune recognition and drug action at different life cycle stages leads to further complexity. We review the development and progress of "within-host" models of Plasmodium infection, and how these have been applied to understanding and interpreting human infection and animal models of infection.

A probabilistic model of pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine combination in mice

Malaria remains one the world’s most deadly infectious diseases, with almost half a million deaths and over 150 million clinical cases each year. An effective vaccine would contribute enormously to malaria control and will almost certainly be required for eventual eradication of the disease. However, the leading malaria vaccine candidate, RTS,S, shows only 30–50% efficacy under field conditions, making it less cost-effective than long-lasting insecticide treated bed nets. Other subunit malaria vaccine candidates, including TRAP-based vaccines, show no better protective efficacy. This has led to increased interest in combining subunit malaria vaccines as a means of enhancing protective efficacy. Mathematical models of the effect of combining such vaccines on protective efficacy can help inform optimal vaccine strategies and decision-making at all stages of the clinical process. So far, however, no such model has been developed for pre-clinical murine studies, the stage at which all candidate antigens and combinations begin evaluation. To address this gap, this paper develops a mathematical model of vaccine combination adapted to murine malaria studies. The model is based on simple probabilistic assumptions which put the model on a firmer theoretical footing than previous clinical models, which rather than deriving a relationship between immune responses and protective efficacy posit the relationship to be either exponential or Hill curves. Data from pre-clinical murine malaria studies are used to derive values for unknowns in the model which in turn allows simulations of vaccine combination efficacy and suggests optimal strategies to pursue. Finally, the ability of the model to shed light on fundamental biological variables of murine malaria such as the blood stage growth rate and sporozoite infectivity is explored.

Analysis of the lymphocyte cell population during malaria caused by Plasmodium vivax and its correlation with parasitaemia and thrombocytopaenia

BACKGROUND

The mechanisms of activation and regulation of T lymphocytes and their cytokines in malaria caused by Plasmodium vivax are complex and poorly understood. Previous data suggest that T cells balance protective immune responses with immune mediated pathology in malaria. This study investigates the lymphocytic profile of patients infected with P. vivax by identifying and quantifying the specific sub-populations of Th1, Th2, Th17 and Treg cells and observing the correlation between parasitaemia and the number of platelets.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was carried out in an endemic area of the state of Acre, Brazil. In order to obtain identification and quantification of lymphocyte sub-populations through flow cytometry, blood samples were collected from 50 individuals infected with P. vivax and 20 non-infected controls. To differentiate Th1 from Th2, the presence of cytokines IL-4 and TNF was examined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Utilizing the Mann-Whitney and Spearman coefficient tests, comparison and correlation analysis were rendered to test the parasitaemia and the number of platelets relationship.

RESULTS

The data indicate that individuals infected with P. vivax present a significant reduction in Th1, Th2 and Th17 cell sub-populations when compared to the non-infected control group. A negative correlation exists between parasitaemia and platelet counts in individuals infected with P. vivax. There is no correlation of parasitaemia or thrombocytopaenia with any sub-population of T lymphocytes analysed. Interestingly, patients with serum Th1 cytokine profile present inversely proportional parasitaemia to the increase in the number of Th1, Th2, Th17 and Treg cells while patients with serum Th2 cytokine profile present directly proportional parasitaemia to the increase in number of Th1 and Th2 cells. Regarding the number of platelets, patients with serum Th1 cytokine profile show a correlation directly proportional to the Th17 sub-population. In contrast, platelet counts are directly proportional only to Treg and activated Treg cells in patients with serum Th2 cytokine profile.

CONCLUSIONS

During the P. vivax infection patients with serum Th1 versus Th2 cytokine profile present different biological mechanisms for activating the immune system against parasite load.

Assessing the impact of imperfect adherence to artemether-lumefantrine on malaria treatment outcomes using within-host modelling

Artemether-lumefantrine (AL) is the most widely-recommended treatment for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria worldwide. Its safety and efficacy have been extensively demonstrated in clinical trials; however, its performance in routine health care settings, where adherence to drug treatment is unsupervised and therefore may be suboptimal, is less well characterised. Here we develop a within-host modelling framework for estimating the effects of sub-optimal adherence to AL treatment on clinical outcomes in malaria patients. Our model incorporates the data on the human immune response to the parasite, and AL's pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties. Utilising individual-level data of adherence to AL in 482 Tanzanian patients as input for our model predicted higher rates of treatment failure than were obtained when adherence was optimal (9% compared to 4%). Our model estimates that the impact of imperfect adherence was worst in children, highlighting the importance of advice to caregivers.

A model of Plasmodium vivax concealment based on Plasmodium cynomolgi infections in Macaca mulatta

BACKGROUND

Plasmodium vivax can cause severe malaria. The total parasite biomass during infections is correlated with the severity of disease but not necessarily quantified accurately by microscopy. This finding has raised the question whether there could be sub-populations of parasites that are not observed in peripheral blood smears but continue to contribute to the increase in parasite numbers that drive pathogenesis. Non-human primate infection models utilizing the closely related simian malaria parasite Plasmodium cynomolgi hold the potential for quantifying the magnitude of possibly unobserved infected red blood cell (iRBC) populations and determining how the presence of this hidden reservoir correlates with disease severity.

METHODS

Time series data tracking the longitudinal development of parasitaemia in five Macaca mulatta infected with P. cynomolgi were used to design a computational model quantifying iRBCs that circulate in the blood versus those that are not detectable and are termed here as 'concealed'. This terminology is proposed to distinguish such observations from the deep vascular and widespread 'sequestration' of Plasmodium falciparum iRBCs, which is governed by distinctly different molecular mechanisms.

RESULTS

The computational model presented here clearly demonstrates that the observed growth data of iRBC populations are not consistent with the known biology and blood-stage cycle of P. cynomolgi. However, the discrepancies can be resolved when a sub-population of concealed iRBCs is taken into account. The model suggests that the early growth of a hidden parasite sub-population has the potential to drive disease. As an alternative, the data could be explained by the sequential release of merozoites from the liver over a number of days, but this scenario seems less likely.

CONCLUSIONS

Concealment of a non-circulating iRBC sub-population during P. cynomolgi infection of M. mulatta is an important aspect of this successful host-pathogen relationship. The data also support the likelihood that a sub-population of iRBCs of P. vivax has a comparable means to become withdrawn from the peripheral circulation. This inference has implications for understanding vivax biology and pathogenesis and stresses the importance of considering a concealed parasite reservoir with regard to vivax epidemiology and the quantification and treatment of P. vivax infections.

Cytokine modulation of human blood viscosity from vivax malaria patients

Malaria is a major infectious disease in several countries and is caused by protozoa of the genus Plasmodium. In vivax malaria patients, inflammatory processes occur, as well as changes in cytokines and blood flow. The present study analyzed the cytokine modulation of blood viscosity from patients infected with Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax). Blood samples were collected from 42 non-infected individuals (control group) and 37 individuals infected with P. vivax. The IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, TNFα, TGF-β and IL-17 cytokine concentrations in the serum were assessed, and the blood rheological properties were determined. The analysis of blood viscosity for shear rates revealed that the blood viscosity of the infected patients was significantly greater than that of the non-infected individuals. The viscosity of the blood was greater in the infected individuals than in the non-infected subjects. The serum from individuals with P. vivax infections exhibited higher IFN-γ and IL-17 concentrations and lower TGF-β levels. Incubation of the blood from infected individuals with IL-17 or IL-17 associated with IFN-γ reduced the viscosity to rates equivalent to the blood from non-infected individuals. Independently of cytokine modulation, no correlation was found between the parasitemia and blood viscosity of the infected patients. These data suggest that the alterations of blood viscosity are relevant as an auxiliary tool for the clinical diagnosis of disease. In malaria, erythrocytes are more sensitive to osmotic shock, and the reduction of viscosity by IL-17 may be related to a possible immunomodulator agent during infection.

Effect of mature blood-stage Plasmodium parasite sequestration on pathogen biomass in mathematical and in vivo models of malaria

Parasite biomass and microvasculature obstruction are strongly associated with disease severity and death in Plasmodium falciparum-infected humans. This is related to sequestration of mature, blood-stage parasites (schizonts) in peripheral tissue. The prevailing view is that schizont sequestration leads to an increase in pathogen biomass, yet direct experimental data to support this are lacking. Here, we first studied parasite population dynamics in inbred wild-type (WT) mice infected with the rodent species of malaria, Plasmodium berghei ANKA. As is commonly reported, these mice became moribund due to large numbers of parasites in multiple tissues. We then studied infection dynamics in a genetically targeted line of mice, which displayed minimal tissue accumulation of parasites. We constructed a mathematical model of parasite biomass dynamics, incorporating schizont-specific host clearance, both with and without schizont sequestration. Combined use of mathematical and in vivo modeling indicated, first, that the slowing of parasite growth in the genetically targeted mice can be attributed to specific clearance of schizonts from the circulation and, second, that persistent parasite growth in WT mice can be explained solely as a result of schizont sequestration. Our work provides evidence that schizont sequestration could be a major biological process driving rapid, early increases in parasite biomass during blood-stage Plasmodium infection.

Comparison of parasite sequestration in uncomplicated and severe childhood Plasmodium falciparum malaria

Objectives

To determine whether sequestration of parasitized red blood cells differs between children with uncomplicated and severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

Methods

We quantified circulating-, total- and sequestered-parasite biomass, using a mathematical model based on plasma concentration of P. falciparum histidine rich protein 2, in Gambian children with severe (n = 127) and uncomplicated (n = 169) malaria.

Results

Circulating- and total-, but not sequestered-, parasite biomass estimates were significantly greater in children with severe malaria than in those with uncomplicated malaria. Sequestered biomass estimates in children with hyperlactataemia or prostration were similar to those in uncomplicated malaria, whereas sequestered biomass was higher in patients with severe anaemia, and showed a trend to higher values in cerebral malaria and fatal cases. Blood lactate concentration correlated with circulating- and total-, but not sequestered parasite biomass. These findings were robust after controlling for age, prior antimalarial treatment and clonality of infection, and over a realistic range of variation in model parameters.

Conclusion

Extensive sequestration is not a uniform requirement for severe paediatric malaria. The pathophysiology of hyperlactataemia and prostration appears to be unrelated to sequestered parasite biomass. Different mechanisms may underlie different severe malaria syndromes, and different therapeutic strategies may be required to improve survival.