Effects of management intervention on post-disturbance community composition: an experimental analysis using bayesian hierarchical models

Conservation and production responses vary by disturbance intensity in a long-term forest management experiment

Reductions in management intensity are often proposed to support a broader range of beneficial ecosystem responses than traditional management approaches. However, few studies evaluate ecosystem responses across approaches. Also, managers lack information about how species traits mediate responses across management approaches, a potentially substantial source of spatial and temporal variation in population and community responses that if ignored may hinder effectiveness of management programs. We used data collected over eight years from a manipulative experiment to test how four forest management strategies influenced avian community composition and wood production. After harvesting, we evaluated responses to three levels of plant cover suppression (Light, Moderate, and Intensive herbicide applications) in relation to a control without herbicide. We predicted the Moderate and Intensive treatments would exert strong negative effects on leaf-gleaning insectivores, including species of conservation concern due to long-term population declines. However, given high forest productivity, we expected temporal duration of effects to be short. Richness of leaf-gleaning bird species was reduced by 20-50% during the first four years post-harvest (when herbicide treatments were on-going), but the effect size declined over the next four years once treatments were completed (13-20% reduction). Effect sizes were substantially smaller for the non-leaf-gleaner group during years 1-4 (19-27%) and disappeared during years 5-8 (2-3%). However, in our final year of observation, we did find an average of five fewer non-leaf-gleaner species on Light vs. Control units. In the last two years of observation, turnover probabilities for the leaf-gleaner species remained higher on all treatments compared to the Control (0.11-0.21), indicating that new species continued to colonize treatments. Planted conifers were 40-44% taller and 74-81% larger in diameter in the Moderate and Intensive treatments compared to the Control, leading to substantial gains in wood biomass. Current practices provided more balance between two ecosystem responses, avian diversity and wood production, compared to less intensive alternatives. When short-term negative effects occur, the spatial distribution of harvesting and regeneration regionally indicates that habitat is often available locally to support leaf-gleaning and non-leaf-gleaning bird populations while releasing other portions of the region for high priority conservation objectives including late-successional forest reserves.

Breeding Bird Community Continues to Colonize Riparian Buffers Ten Years after Harvest

Riparian ecosystems integrate aquatic and terrestrial communities and often contain unique assemblages of flora and fauna. Retention of forested buffers along riparian habitats is a commonly employed practice to reduce potential negative effects of land use on aquatic systems. However, very few studies have examined long-term population and community responses to buffers, leading to considerable uncertainty about effectiveness of this practice for achieving conservation and management outcomes. We examined short- (1-2 years) and long-term (~10 years) avian community responses (occupancy and abundance) to riparian buffer prescriptions to clearcut logging silvicultural practices in the Pacific Northwest USA. We used a Before-After-Control-Impact experimental approach and temporally replicated point counts analyzed within a Bayesian framework. Our experimental design consisted of forested control sites with no harvest, sites with relatively narrow (~13 m) forested buffers on each side of the stream, and sites with wider (~30 m) and more variable width unharvested buffer. Buffer treatments exhibited a 31-44% increase in mean species richness in the post-harvest years, a pattern most evident 10 years post-harvest. Post-harvest, species turnover was much higher on both treatments (63-74%) relative to the controls (29%). We did not find evidence of local extinction for any species but found strong evidence (no overlap in 95% credible intervals) for an increase in site occupancy on both Narrow (short-term: 7%; long-term 29%) and Wide buffers (short-term: 21%; long-term 93%) relative to controls after harvest. We did not find a treatment effect on total avian abundance. When assessing relationships between buffer width and site level abundance of four riparian specialists, we did not find strong evidence of reduced abundance in Narrow or Wide buffers. Silviculture regulations in this region dictate average buffer widths on small and large permanent streams that range from ~22-25 m. Guidelines for this region are within the range of buffers included in our study, in which we observed no evidence for avian species loss or for a decline in species abundance (including riparian associated species).

Analyzing large-scale conservation interventions with Bayesian hierarchical models: a case study of supplementing threatened Pacific salmon

Myriad human activities increasingly threaten the existence of many species. A variety of conservation interventions such as habitat restoration, protected areas, and captive breeding have been used to prevent extinctions. Evaluating the effectiveness of these interventions requires appropriate statistical methods, given the quantity and quality of available data. Historically, analysis of variance has been used with some form of predetermined before-after control-impact design to estimate the effects of large-scale experiments or conservation interventions. However, ad hoc retrospective study designs or the presence of random effects at multiple scales may preclude the use of these tools. We evaluated the effects of a large-scale supplementation program on the density of adult Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from the Snake River basin in the northwestern United States currently listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We analyzed 43 years of data from 22 populations, accounting for random effects across time and space using a form of Bayesian hierarchical time-series model common in analyses of financial markets. We found that varying degrees of supplementation over a period of 25 years increased the density of natural-origin adults, on average, by 0-8% relative to nonsupplementation years. Thirty-nine of the 43 year effects were at least two times larger in magnitude than the mean supplementation effect, suggesting common environmental variables play a more important role in driving interannual variability in adult density. Additional residual variation in density varied considerably across the region, but there was no systematic difference between supplemented and reference populations. Our results demonstrate the power of hierarchical Bayesian models to detect the diffuse effects of management interventions and to quantitatively describe the variability of intervention success. Nevertheless, our study could not address whether ecological factors (e.g., competition) were more important than genetic considerations (e.g., inbreeding depression) in determining the response to supplementation.

Guidelines for a priori grouping of species in hierarchical community models

Recent methodological advances permit the estimation of species richness and occurrences for rare species by linking species-level occurrence models at the community level. The value of such methods is underscored by the ability to examine the influence of landscape heterogeneity on species assemblages at large spatial scales. A salient advantage of community-level approaches is that parameter estimates for data-poor species are more precise as the estimation process "borrows" from data-rich species. However, this analytical benefit raises a question about the degree to which inferences are dependent on the implicit assumption of relatedness among species. Here, we assess the sensitivity of community/group-level metrics, and individual-level species inferences given various classification schemes for grouping species assemblages using multispecies occurrence models. We explore the implications of these groupings on parameter estimates for avian communities in two ecosystems: tropical forests in Puerto Rico and temperate forests in northeastern United States. We report on the classification performance and extent of variability in occurrence probabilities and species richness estimates that can be observed depending on the classification scheme used. We found estimates of species richness to be most precise and to have the best predictive performance when all of the data were grouped at a single community level. Community/group-level parameters appear to be heavily influenced by the grouping criteria, but were not driven strictly by total number of detections for species. We found different grouping schemes can provide an opportunity to identify unique assemblage responses that would not have been found if all of the species were analyzed together. We suggest three guidelines: (1) classification schemes should be determined based on study objectives; (2) model selection should be used to quantitatively compare different classification approaches; and (3) sensitivity of results to different classification approaches should be assessed. These guidelines should help researchers apply hierarchical community models in the most effective manner.