Predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an OSPAR priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario: consequences for marine protected area networks and management

Influence of offshore oil and gas structures on seascape ecological connectivity

Offshore platforms, subsea pipelines, wells and related fixed structures supporting the oil and gas (O&G) industry are prevalent in oceans across the globe, with many approaching the end of their operational life and requiring decommissioning. Although structures can possess high ecological diversity and productivity, information on how they interact with broader ecological processes remains unclear. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the role of O&G infrastructure in maintaining, altering or enhancing ecological connectivity with natural marine habitats. There is a paucity of studies on the subject with only 33 papers specifically targeting connectivity and O&G structures, although other studies provide important related information. Evidence for O&G structures facilitating vertical and horizontal seascape connectivity exists for larvae and mobile adult invertebrates, fish and megafauna; including threatened and commercially important species. The degree to which these structures represent a beneficial or detrimental net impact remains unclear, is complex and ultimately needs more research to determine the extent to which natural connectivity networks are conserved, enhanced or disrupted. We discuss the potential impacts of different decommissioning approaches on seascape connectivity and identify, through expert elicitation, critical knowledge gaps that, if addressed, may further inform decision making for the life cycle of O&G infrastructure, with relevance for other industries (e.g. renewables). The most highly ranked critical knowledge gap was a need to understand how O&G structures modify and influence the movement patterns of mobile species and dispersal stages of sessile marine species. Understanding how different decommissioning options affect species survival and movement was also highly ranked, as was understanding the extent to which O&G structures contribute to extending species distributions by providing rest stops, foraging habitat, and stepping stones. These questions could be addressed with further dedicated studies of animal movement in relation to structures using telemetry, molecular techniques and movement models. Our review and these priority questions provide a roadmap for advancing research needed to support evidence-based decision making for decommissioning O&G infrastructure.

Modeling potential distribution of newly recorded ant, Brachyponera nigrita using Maxent under climate change in Pothwar region, Pakistan

Climate change has been discussed as to exert shifts in geographical range of plants, animals or insect species by increasing, reducing or shifting its appropriate climatic habitat. Globally, Pakistan has been ranked at 5^th position on the list of countries most vulnerable to climate change in 2020. Climate change has resulted in the losses of biodiversity and alteration in ecosystem as a result of depletion of natural habitats of species in Pakistan as well as in the world. Ants have been regarded as indicators of environmental change and ecosystem processes. Brachyponera nigrita (Emery, 1895) was reported for the first time from Pakistan (Pothwar region). Objective of our studies was to model geographic distribution of newly recorded ant species, B. nigrita based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP) (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050s using maximum entropy model (Maxent) in Pakistan. In modeling procedure, 21occurrence records and 8 variables namely Bio4 (Temperature seasonality), Bio8 (Mean temperature of wettest quarter), Bio10 (Mean temperature of warmest quarter), Bio12 (Annual precipitation), Bio13 (Precipitation of wettest month), Bio15 (Precipitation seasonality), Bio17 (Precipitation of driest quarter) and Bio18 (Precipitation of warmest quarter) were used to determine the current and future distributions. Performance of the model was evaluated using AUC (area under curves) values, partial ROC, omission rates (E = 5%) and AICc (Model complexity).The results showed the average AUC value of the model was 0.930, which indicated that the accuracy of the model was excellent. The jackknife test also showed that Bio4, Bio18, Bio17 and Bio15 contributed 98% for the prediction of potential distribution of the species as compared to all other variables. Maxent results indicated that distribution area of B. nigrita under future predicted bioclimatics 2050 (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5) would be increased in various localities of Pakistan as compared to its current distribution. In Pothwar region, moderately suitable and highly suitable areas of this species would increase by 505.932321km²and 572.118421km²as compared to current distribution under 2050 (RCP 4.5), while under 2050 (RCP 8.5), there would be an increase of 6427.2576km²and 3765.140493km² respectively in moderately suitable and highly suitable areas of B. nigrita. This species was associated with termites, collembolans and larval stages of different insects. White eggs, creamy white pupae and many workers of this species were observed in a variety of habitats. Unknown nesting ecology, species identification characters supported with micrographs has been given which will help researchers for further ecological studies.

Climate change effects on marine protected areas: Projected decline of benthic species in the North Sea

Climate change is a global threat for marine ecosystems, their biodiversity and consequently ecosystem services. In the marine realm, marine protected areas (MPAs) were designated to counteract regional pressures, but they might be ineffective to protect vulnerable species and habitats, if their distribution is affected by global climate change. We used six Species Distribution Models (GLM, MARS, FDA, RF, GBM, MAXENT) to project changes in the distribution of eight benthic indicator and key species under climate change in the North Sea MPAs for 2050 and 2099. The projected distribution area of most species will be stable or even increase within the MPAs between 2001 and 2050. Thereafter, the distribution area decreased, especially within MPAs in the central North Sea by 2099, and some key species even disappeared from the MPAs. Consequently, the monitoring and protection of benthic species might not be possible within static MPA borders under climate change.

Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution of benthic indicator species in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

The potential effects of climate change on the distribution of benthic species commonly used in marine ecological quality assessment were investigated using a spatial modelling approach. In this work, the relevance of the ecological groups that macrofaunal molluscs are assigned according to their sensitivity or tolerance to environmental disturbance was examined under the scope of the RCP 8.5 severe emissions scenario. The effects of climate change were more profound on species that are indicative of a specific suite of climatic conditions regarding temperature and salinity. Significant loss of habitat suitability was observed for the tolerant species Corbula gibba and Abra prismatica whereas the sensitive species Moerella donacina was least affected. In contrast, an overall expansion of the distributional potential was observed for the sensitive species Flexopecten hyalinus as newly suitable habitats are formed. As hypothesised, the current ecological grouping that depicts the sensitivity of a benthic species to an environmental stressor is irrelevant when assessing the effects of climate change. We propose a new standpoint of using benthic species as biotic tools based on their ecological niche requirements.

Molluscan indicator species and their potential use in ecological status assessment using species distribution modeling

Marine habitat assessment using indicator species through Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) was investigated. The bivalves: Corbula gibba and Flexopecten hyalinus were the indicator species characterizing disturbed and undisturbed areas respectively in terms of chlorophyll a concentration in Greece. The habitat suitability maps of these species reflected the overall ecological status of the area. The C. gibba model successfully predicted the occurrence of this species in areas with increased physical disturbance driven by chlorophyll a concentration, whereas the habitat map for F. hyalinus showed an increased probability of occurrence in chlorophyll-poor areas, affected mainly by salinity. We advocate the use of C. gibba as a proxy for eutrophication and the incorporation of this species in monitoring studies through SDM methods. For the Mediterranean Sea we suggest the use of F. hyalinus in SDM as an indicator of environmental stability and a possible forecasting tool for salinity fluctuations.

Protection alone may not promote natural recovery of biogenic habitats of high biodiversity damaged by mobile fishing gears

The horse mussel Modiolus modiolus (L.) is a large marine bivalve that aggregates to create complex habitats of high biodiversity. As a keystone species, M. modiolus is of great importance for the functioning of marine benthic ecosystems, forming biogenic habitats used to designate Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). The present study investigates the condition of M. modiolus beds historically subjected to intense scallop fishing using mobile fishing gears. The study, conducted seven years after the introduction of legislation banning all forms of fishing, aimed to establish whether natural habitat recovery occurs after protection measures are put in place. Lower biodiversity and up to 80% decline in densities of M. modiolus were recorded across the current distributional range of the species in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland. The decline in biodiversity in most areas surveyed was consistent with that observed in biogenic reefs impacted by mobile fishing gears elsewhere. Epifauna, including sponges, hydroids and tunicates, experienced the most substantial decline in biodiversity, with up to 64% fewer taxa recorded in 2010 compared with 2003. Higher variability in community composition and a shift towards faunal assemblages dominated by opportunistic infaunal species typical of softer substrata were also detected. Based on these observations we suggest that, for biogenic habitats, the designation of MPAs and the introduction of fishing bans alone may not be sufficient to reverse or halt the negative effects caused by past anthropogenic impacts. Direct intervention, including habitat restoration based on translocation of native keystone species, should be considered as part of management strategies for MPAs which host similar biogenic reef habitats where condition and natural recovery have been compromised.

Solutions for ecosystem-level protection of ocean systems under climate change

The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta-analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co-mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem-level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long-term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate-ready and ecosystem-level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans.

Testing methods to support management decisions in coralligenous and cave environments. A case study at Portofino MPA

Baseline data on the distribution, condition and extent of coralligenous and cave bioconcretions is one of the main requirements of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) necessary to assess the achievement of a Good Environmental Status (GES) by 2020. In this study the potential of remote sensing and distribution modelling techniques to map, measure descriptors and choose indicators were tested, that could provide standard methods for the assessment of the health status and assist in monitoring activities. It is demonstrated how, by combining different methodologies, it is possible to map the distribution of the bioconcretions with acceptable accuracy and to discriminate the main habitat types and facies. In addition, zonal statistical analysis revealed that fishing activities primarily coincide with areas of high coverage of the bioconcretions. Results demonstrate that the presented methodology is a valuable simple tool to assess several MSFD descriptors and indicators, and could strengthen management efficiency when making informed, ecologically relevant decisions.

Buried Alive: The Behavioural Response of the Mussels, Modiolus modiolus and Mytilus edulis to Sudden Burial by Sediment

Sedimentation in the sea occurs through natural processes, such as wave and tidal action, which can be exacerbated during storms and floods. Changes in terrestrial land use, marine aggregate extraction, dredging, drilling and mining are known to result in substantial sediment deposition. Research suggests that deposition will also occur due to the modern development of marine renewable energy. The response to individual burial under three depths of sediment, three sediment fractions and five burial durations was investigated in two mussel species, Modiolus modiolus and Mytilus edulis in specialist mesocosms. Both mussel species showed substantial mortality, which increased with duration of burial and burial by finer sediment fractions. M. modiolus was better able to survive short periods of burial than M. edulis, but at longer durations mortality was more pronounced. No mortality was observed in M. modiolus in burial durations of eight days or less but by 16 days of burial, over 50% cumulative mortality occurred. Under variable temperature regimes, M. edulis mortality increased from 20% at 8°C to over 60% at 14.5 and 20°C. Only M. edulis was able to emerge from burial, facilitated by increased byssus production, laid mostly on vertical surfaces but also on sediment particles. Emergence was higher from coarse sediment and shallow burials. Byssus production in M. edulis was not related to the condition index of the mussels. Results suggest that even marginal burial would result in mortality and be more pronounced in warm summer periods. Our results suggest that in the event of burial, adult M. modiolus would not be able to emerge from burial unless local hydrodynamics assist, whereas a small proportion of M. edulis may regain contact with the sediment water interface. The physiological stress resulting in mortality, contribution of local hydrodynamics to survival and other ecological pressures such as mussels existing in aggregations, are discussed.

Connectivity and Dispersal Patterns of Protected Biogenic Reefs: Implications for the Conservation of Modiolus modiolus (L.) in the Irish Sea

Biogenic reefs created by Modiolus modiolus (Linnaeus, 1758) (horse mussel reefs) are marine habitats which support high levels of species biodiversity and provide valuable ecosystem services. Currently, M. modiolus reefs are listed as a threatened and/or declining species and habitat in all OSPAR regions and thus are highlighted as a conservation priority under the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). Determining patterns of larval dispersal and genetic connectivity of remaining horse mussel populations can inform management efforts and is a critical component of effective marine spatial planning (MSP). Larval dispersal patterns and genetic structure were determined for several M. modiolus bed populations in the Irish Sea including those in Wales (North Pen Llŷn), Isle of Man (Point of Ayre) and Northern Ireland (Ards Peninsula and Strangford Lough). Simulations of larval dispersal suggested extant connectivity between populations within the Irish Sea. Results from the genetic analysis carried out using newly developed microsatellite DNA markers were consistent with those of the biophysical model. Results indicated moderately significant differentiation between the Northern Ireland populations and those in the Isle of Man and Wales. Simulations of larval dispersal over a 30 day pelagic larval duration (PLD) suggest that connectivity over a spatial scale of 150km is possible between some source and sink populations. However, it appears unlikely that larvae from Northern Ireland will connect directly with sites on the Llŷn or Isle of Man. It also appears unlikely that larvae from the Llŷn connect directly to any of the other sites. Taken together the data establishes a baseline for underpinning management and conservation of these important and threatened marine habitats in the southern part of the known range.

Glacial Refugia and Future Habitat Coverage of Selected Dactylorhiza Representatives (Orchidaceae)

The intensively discussed taxonomic complexity of the Dactylorhiza genus is probably correlated with its migration history during glaciations and interglacial periods. Previous studies on past processes affecting the current distribution of Dactylorhiza species as well as the history of the polyploid complex formation were based only on molecular data. In the present study the ecological niche modeling (ENM) technique was applied in order to describe the distribution of potential refugia for the selected Dactylorhiza representatives during the Last Glacial Maximum. Additionally, future changes in their potential habitat coverage were measured with regard to three various climatic change scenarios. The maximum entropy method was used to create models of suitable niche distribution. A database of Dactylorhiza localities was prepared on the grounds of information collected from literature and data gathered during field works. Our research indicated that the habitats of majority of the studied taxa will decrease by 2080, except for D. incarnata var. incarnata, for which suitable habitats will increase almost two-fold in the global scale. Moreover, the potential habitats of some taxa are located outside their currently known geographical ranges, e.g. the Aleutian Islands, the western slopes of the Rocky Mountains, Newfoundland, southern Greenland and Iceland. ENM analysis did not confirm that the Balkans, central Europe or central Russia served as the most important refugia for individual representatives of the Dactylorhiza incarnata/maculata complex. Our study rather indicated that the Black Sea coast, southern Apennines and Corsica were the main areas characterized by habitats suitable for most of the taxa.

Force majeure: Will climate change affect our ability to attain Good Environmental Status for marine biodiversity?

The EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) requires that Good Environmental Status (GEnS), is achieved for European seas by 2020. These may deviate from GEnS, its 11 Descriptors, targets and baselines, due to endogenic managed pressures (from activities within an area) and externally due to exogenic unmanaged pressures (e.g. climate change). Conceptual models detail the likely or perceived changes expected on marine biodiversity and GEnS Descriptors in the light of climate change. We emphasise that marine management has to accommodate 'shifting baselines' caused by climate change particularly during GEnS monitoring, assessment and management and 'unbounded boundaries' given the migration and dispersal of highly-mobile species. We suggest climate change may prevent GEnS being met, but Member States may rebut legal challenges by claiming that this is outside its control, force majeure or due to 'natural causes' (Article 14 of the MSFD). The analysis is relevant to management of other global seas.