Phylodynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba

Cuban history of CRF19 recombinant subtype of HIV-1

CRF19 is a recombinant form of HIV-1 subtypes D, A1 and G, which was first sampled in Cuba in 1999, but was already present there in 1980s. CRF19 was reported almost uniquely in Cuba, where it accounts for ∼25% of new HIV-positive patients and causes rapid progression to AIDS (∼3 years). We analyzed a large data set comprising ∼350 pol and env sequences sampled in Cuba over the last 15 years and ∼350 from Los Alamos database. This data set contained both CRF19 (∼315), and A1, D and G sequences. We performed and combined analyses for the three A1, G and D regions, using fast maximum likelihood approaches, including: (1) phylogeny reconstruction, (2) spatio-temporal analysis of the virus spread, and ancestral character reconstruction for (3) transmission mode and (4) drug resistance mutations (DRMs). We verified these results with a Bayesian approach. This allowed us to acquire new insights on the CRF19 origin and transmission patterns. We showed that CRF19 recombined between 1966 and 1977, most likely in Cuban community stationed in Congo region. We further investigated CRF19 spread on the Cuban province level, and discovered that the epidemic started in 1970s, most probably in Villa Clara, that it was at first carried by heterosexual transmissions, and then quickly spread in the 1980s within the "men having sex with men" (MSM) community, with multiple transmissions back to heterosexuals. The analysis of the transmission patterns of common DRMs found very few resistance transmission clusters. Our results show a very early introduction of CRF19 in Cuba, which could explain its local epidemiological success. Ignited by a major founder event, the epidemic then followed a similar pattern as other subtypes and CRFs in Cuba. The reason for the short time to AIDS remains to be understood and requires specific surveillance, in Cuba and elsewhere.

Increasing prevalence and local transmission of non-B HIV-1 subtypes in the French Antilles and French Guiana between 1995 and 2018

The Caribbean and South American French Overseas Territories (CSAFOT) are the regions most heavily affected by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) epidemic in France. Although dominated by HIV-1 subtype B, the detection of non-B subtypes and the great proportion of HIV-positive persons born abroad demonstrated the potential for local spread of non-B subtype strains in CSAFOT. To reconstruct the epidemiologic dynamics of major non-B subtype clusters spreading in CSAFOT, we conducted phylogenetic and evolutionary analyses of 2,523 HIV-1 pol sequences collected from patients living in Martinique, Guadeloupe, and French Guiana from 1995 to 2018. A large variety of HIV-1 non-B subtype strains (eight subtypes, twelve CRFs, and multiple URFs) have been introduced in CSAFOT and their prevalence significantly increases over time in Martinique and Guadeloupe. We identified twelve major transmission networks of non-B subtypes (CRF02_AG and subtypes A3, C, D, and F1) that probably arose in Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guiana, and mainland France between the late 1970s and the middle 2000s. Phylogeographic analyses support frequent non-B subtype viral transmissions within CSAFOT as well as transatlantic transmission between CSAFOT and mainland France. Domestic transmission networks of non-B subtype variants in CSAFOT comprise both men having sex with men and heterosexual individuals from different age groups. Different HIV-1 non-B subtype variants were sequentially introduced in CSAFOT between the late 1970s and the middle 2000s and are currently spreading through domestic, regional, and/or transatlantic networks of individuals from different age and risk groups.

Distinct rates and patterns of spread of the major HIV-1 subtypes in Central and East Africa

Since the ignition of the HIV-1 group M pandemic in the beginning of the 20th century, group M lineages have spread heterogeneously throughout the world. Subtype C spread rapidly through sub-Saharan Africa and is currently the dominant HIV lineage worldwide. Yet the epidemiological and evolutionary circumstances that contributed to its epidemiological expansion remain poorly understood. Here, we analyse 346 novel pol sequences from the DRC to compare the evolutionary dynamics of the main HIV-1 lineages, subtypes A1, C and D. Our results place the origins of subtype C in the 1950s in Mbuji-Mayi, the mining city of southern DRC, while subtypes A1 and D emerged in the capital city of Kinshasa, and subtypes H and J in the less accessible port city of Matadi. Following a 15-year period of local transmission in southern DRC, we find that subtype C spread at least three-fold faster than other subtypes circulating in Central and East Africa. In conclusion, our results shed light on the origins of HIV-1 main lineages and suggest that socio-historical rather than evolutionary factors may have determined the epidemiological fate of subtype C in sub-Saharan Africa.

Continued propagation of the CRF19_cpx variant among HIV-positive MSM patients in Spain

Objectives

The HIV-1 CRF19_cpx genetic form has been recently associated with greater pathogenicity. We used CoRIS, a national cohort of 31 reference hospitals in Spain, to investigate the current epidemiological situation of this variant in Spain.

Patients and methods

We analysed 4734 naive HIV-1-positive patients diagnosed during the 2007-15 period with an available pol gene sequence in the CoRIS resistance database. HIV-1 CRF19_cpx was ascribed through REGA3.0 and confirmed by a phylogenetic analysis. We analysed the presence of the transmission clusters of HIV-1 CRF19_cpx by maximum likelihood [with the randomized accelerated maximum likelihood (RAxML) program] and the time to the most recent common ancestor using Bayesian inference (BEAST, v. 1.7.5).

Results

Nineteen patients were infected with CRF19_cpx: all were male, they had a mean age of 42.9 years (95% CI: 36.4-52.5 years), the majority were MSM [n = 18 (95%)] and of Spanish nationality [n = 16 (84.2%)] and they had high CD4+ T cell counts (∼415 cells/mm3). Fifteen patients were grouped into four different transmission clusters: two clusters (two patients each) grouped the patients from Valencia and another cluster grouped one patient from Madrid and another from Seville. We found a larger cluster that grouped nine patients from southern Spain (Malaga and Seville), of which six presented mutation G190A. We estimated the origin of all the transmission clusters to take place between 2009 and 2010.

Conclusions

We demonstrate that this variant has spread in Spain in recent years among young HIV-positive MSM and we note a recent expansion in southern Spain in patients who carry mutation G190A. We alert healthcare managers to enhance preventive measures to prevent the continuous spread of HIV-1 CRF19_cpx.

Evolutionary history and spatiotemporal dynamics of the HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in Guatemala

Different explanations exist on how HIV-1 subtype B spread in Central America, but the role of Guatemala, the Central American country with the highest number of people living with the virus, in this scenario is unknown. We investigated the evolutionary history and spatiotemporal dynamics of HIV-1 subtype B in Guatemala. A total of 1,047 HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences, from newly diagnosed ART-naïve, HIV-infected Guatemalan subjects enrolled between 2011 and 2013 were combined with published subtype B sequences from other Central American countries (n = 2,101) and with reference sequences representative of the B_PANDEMIC and B_CAR lineages from the United States (n = 465), France (n = 344) and the Caribbean (n = 238). Estimates of evolutionary, demographic, and phylogeographic parameters were obtained from sequence data using maximum likelihood and Bayesian coalescent-based methods. The majority of Guatemalan sequences (98.9%) belonged to the B_PANDEMIC clade, and 75.2% of these sequences branched within 10 monophyletic clades: four also included sequences from other Central American countries (B_CAM-I to B_CAM-IV) and six were mostly (>99%) composed by Guatemalan sequences (B_GU clades). Most clades mainly comprised sequences from heterosexual individuals. Bayesian coalescent-based analyses suggested that B_GU clades originated during the 1990s and 2000s, whereas B_CAM clades originated between the late 1970s and mid 1980s. The major hub of dissemination of all B_GU, and of B_CAM-II, and B_CAM-IV clades was traced to the Department of Guatemala, while the root location of B_CAM-I and B_CAM-III was traced to Honduras. Most Guatemalan clades experienced initial phases of exponential growth (0.23 and 3.6 year^-1), followed by recent growth declines. Our observations suggest that the Guatemalan HIV-1 subtype B epidemic is driven by dissemination of multiple B_PANDEMIC founder viral strains, some restricted to Guatemala and others widely disseminated in the Central American region, with Guatemala City identified as a major hub of viral dissemination. Our results also suggest the existence of different sub-epidemics within Guatemala for which different targeted prevention efforts might be needed.

The HIV-1 Subtype B Epidemic in French Guiana and Suriname Is Driven by Ongoing Transmissions of Pandemic and Non-pandemic Lineages

The HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in French Guiana and Suriname is characterized by the co-circulation of the globally disseminated “B_PANDEMIC” lineage and of non-pandemic subtype B lineages of Caribbean origin (B_CAR). To reconstruct the spatiotemporal pattern of spread of those viral lineages circulating in these two countries, a total of 361 HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences recovered from treatment-naive adult patients from French Guiana and Suriname between 2006 and 2012 were combined with B_PANDEMIC and B_CAR reference sequences. Major Guianese/Surinamese B_PANDEMIC and B_CAR lineages were identified by Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analysis and the spatiotemporal and demographic parameters estimated using a Bayesian coalescent-based method. We detected four B_CAR and three B_PANDEMIC transmission chains of large size that together comprise most pandemic and non-pandemic subtype B sequences from French Guiana (≥52%) and Suriname (≥70%) here analyzed. These major lineages were probably introduced into French Guiana and Suriname from the Caribbean (B_CAR) and North/South America (B_PANDEMIC) between the middle 1970s and the late 1980s and spread among populations from both countries with roughly comparable demographic growth rates. We detected a significant trend for higher viral loads and higher proportion of homosexual/bisexual men among subjects infected with B_PANDEMIC relative to B_CAR strains in French Guiana. These results show that the HIV subtype B epidemic in French Guiana and Suriname has been driven by multiple active B_CAR and B_PANDEMIC transmission chains that arose since the middle 1970s onward and operate in both countries simultaneously. Although no significant differences in the epidemic potential of major B_CAR and B_PANDEMIC lineages were observed, relevant associations between the infecting subtype B lineage and epidemiological and clinical characteristics were detected in French Guiana.

Geographically-stratified HIV-1 group M pol subtype and circulating recombinant form sequences

Accurate classification of HIV-1 group M lineages, henceforth referred to as subtyping, is essential for understanding global HIV-1 molecular epidemiology. Because most HIV-1 sequencing is done for genotypic resistance testing pol gene, we sought to develop a set of geographically-stratified pol sequences that represent HIV-1 group M sequence diversity. Representative pol sequences differ from representative complete genome sequences because not all CRFs have pol recombination points and because complete genome sequences may not faithfully reflect HIV-1 pol diversity. We developed a software pipeline that compiled 6,034 one-per-person complete HIV-1 pol sequences annotated by country and year belonging to 11 pure subtypes and 70 CRFs and selected a set of sequences whose average distance to the remaining sequences is minimized for each subtype/CRF and country to generate a Geographically-Stratified set of 716 Pol Subtype/CRF (GSPS) reference sequences. We provide extensive data on pol diversity within each subtype/CRF and country combination. The GSPS reference set will also be useful for HIV-1 pol subtyping.

Emergence as an outbreak of the HIV-1 CRF19_cpx variant in treatment-naïve patients in southern Spain

Background

CRF19_cpx is a complex circulating recombination form (CRF) of HIV-1. We describe the characteristics of an outbreak of the CRF19_cpx variant among treatment-naïve patients in southern Spain.

Methods

The study was undertaken at the Virgen de la Victoria Hospital, a reference centre for the analysis of HIV-1 genotype in Malaga (Spain). Subtyping was performed through REGA v3.0 and the relationship of our CRF19_cpx sequences, among themselves and regarding other reference sequences from the same variant, was defined by phylogenetic analysis. We used PhyML program to perform a reconstruction of the phylogeny by Maximum Likelihood method as well as further confirmation of the transmission clusters by Bayesian inference. Additionally, we collected demographic, clinical and immunovirological data.

Results

Between 2011 and 2016, we detected 57 treatment-naïve patients with the CRF19_cpx variant. Of these, 55 conformed a very well-defined transmission cluster, phylogenetically close to CRF19_cpx sequences from the United Kingdom. The origin of this subtype in Malaga was dated between 2007 and 2010. Over 50% of the patients presented the non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor G190A resistance mutation. This variant was mostly represented by young adult Spanish men who had sex with men. Almost half of them were recent seroconverters, though a similar percentage was diagnosed at a late state of HIV infection. Five cases of AIDS and one non-AIDS defined death occurred during follow-up. The majority of patients treated with first-line combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) responded.

Conclusions

We report the largest HIV-1 CRF19_cpx cohort of treatment-naïve patients outside Cuba, almost all emerging as an outbreak in the South of Spain. Half the cases had the G190A resistance mutation. Unlike previous studies, the variant from Malaga seems less pathogenic, with few AIDS events and an excellent response to ART.

Time-scale of minor HIV-1 complex circulating recombinant forms from Central and West Africa

Background

Several HIV-1 circulating recombinant forms with a complex mosaic structure (CRFs_cpx) circulate in central and western African regions. Here we reconstruct the evolutionary history of some of these complex CRFs (09_cpx, 11_cpx, 13_cpx and 45_cpx) and further investigate the dissemination dynamic of the CRF11_cpx clade by using a Bayesian coalescent-based method.

Results

The analysis of two HIV-1 datasets comprising 181 pol (36 CRF09_cpx, 116 CRF11_cpx, 20 CRF13_cpx and 9 CRF45_cpx) and 125 env (12 CRF09_cpx, 67 CRF11_cpx, 17 CRF13_cpx and 29 CRF45_cpx) sequences pointed to quite consistent onset dates for CRF09_cpx (~1966: 1958–1979), CRF11_cpx (~1957: 1950–1966) and CRF13_cpx (~1965: 1958–1973) clades; while some divergence was found for the estimated date of origin of CRF45_cpx clade [pol = 1970 (1964–1976); env = 1960 (1952–1969)]. Phylogeographic reconstructions indicate that the HIV-1 CRF11_cpx clade most probably emerged in Cameroon and from there it was first disseminated to the Central Africa Republic and Chad in the early 1970s and to other central and western African countries from the early 1980s onwards. Demographic reconstructions suggest that the CRF11_cpx epidemic grew between 1960 and 1990 with a median exponential growth rate of 0.27 year⁻¹, and stabilized after.

Conclusions

These results reveal that HIV-1 CRFs_cpx clades have been circulating in Central Africa for a period comparable to other much more prevalent HIV-1 group M lineages. Cameroon was probably the epicenter of dissemination of the CRF11_cpx clade that seems to have experienced a long epidemic growth phase before stabilization. The epidemic growth of the CRF11_cpx clade was roughly comparable to other HIV-1 group M lineages circulating in Central Africa.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-016-0824-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Spatio-Temporal History of HIV-1 CRF35_AD in Afghanistan and Iran

HIV-1 Circulating Recombinant Form 35_AD (CRF35_AD) has an important position in the epidemiological profile of Afghanistan and Iran. Despite the presence of this clade in Afghanistan and Iran for over a decade, our understanding of its origin and dissemination patterns is limited. In this study, we performed a Bayesian phylogeographic analysis to reconstruct the spatio-temporal dispersion pattern of this clade using eligible CRF35_AD gag and pol sequences available in the Los Alamos HIV database (432 sequences available from Iran, 16 sequences available from Afghanistan, and a single CRF35_AD-like pol sequence available from USA). Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm was implemented in BEAST v1.8.1. Between-country dispersion rates were tested with Bayesian stochastic search variable selection method and were considered significant where Bayes factor values were greater than three. The findings suggested that CRF35_AD sequences were genetically similar to parental sequences from Kenya and Uganda, and to a set of subtype A1 sequences available from Afghan refugees living in Pakistan. Our results also showed that across all phylogenies, Afghan and Iranian CRF35_AD sequences formed a monophyletic cluster (posterior clade credibility> 0.7). The divergence date of this cluster was estimated to be between 1990 and 1992. Within this cluster, a bidirectional dispersion of the virus was observed across Afghanistan and Iran. We could not clearly identify if Afghanistan or Iran first established or received this epidemic, as the root location of this cluster could not be robustly estimated. Three CRF35_AD sequences from Afghan refugees living in Pakistan nested among Afghan and Iranian CRF35_AD branches. However, the CRF35_AD-like sequence available from USA diverged independently from Kenyan subtype A1 sequences, suggesting it not to be a true CRF35_AD lineage. Potential factors contributing to viral exchange between Afghanistan and Iran could be injection drug networks and mass migration of Afghan refugees and labours to Iran, which calls for extensive preventive efforts.

HIV-1 subtype B: Traces of a pandemic

Human migration is a major process that shaped the origin and dissemination of HIV. Within HIV-1, subtype B (HIV-1B) is the most disseminated variant and it is assumed to be the causative agent in approximately 11% of all cases of HIV worldwide. Phylogenetic studies have revealed that HIV-1B emerged in Kinshasa (Africa) and was introduced into the Caribbean region via Haiti in or around 1966 by human migration. After localized dispersion, the virus was brought to the United States of America via homosexual/bisexual contact around 1969. Inside USA, the incidence of HIV-1B infection increased exponentially and it became established in the population, affecting not only homosexual individuals but also heterosexual individuals and injecting drug users. Soon after, the virus was disseminated and became established in other regions, including Europe, Asia, Latin America, and Australia. Recent studies suggest that, in addition to this pandemic clade, several lineages have emerged from Haiti and reached other Caribbean and Latin American countries via short-distance dissemination. Different subtype B genetic variants have also been detected in these epidemics. Four genetic variants have been described to date: subtype B', which mainly circulates in Thailand and other Asian countries; a specific variant mainly found in Trinidad and Tobago; the GPGS variant, which is primarily detected in Korea; and the GWGR variant, which is mainly detected in Brazil. This paper reviews the evolution of HIV-1B and its impact on the human population.

HIV-1 Antiretroviral Drug Resistance Mutations in Treatment Naïve and Experienced Panamanian Subjects: Impact on National Use of EFV-Based Schemes

The use of antiretroviral therapy in HIV infected subjects prevents AIDS-related illness and delayed occurrence of death. In Panama, rollout of ART started in 1999 and national coverage has reached 62.8% since then. The objective of this study was to determine the level and patterns of acquired drug resistance mutations of clinical relevance (ADR-CRM) and surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs) from 717 HIV-1 pol gene sequences obtained from 467 ARV drug-experienced and 250 ARV drug-naïve HIV-1 subtypes B infected subjects during 2007–2013, respectively. The overall prevalence of SDRM and of ADR-CRM during the study period was 9.2% and 87.6%, respectively. The majority of subjects with ADR-CRM had a pattern of mutations that confer resistance to at least two classes of ARV inhibitors. The non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) mutations K103N and P225H were more prevalent in both ARV drug-naïve and ARV drug-experienced subjects. The nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) mutation M184V was more frequent in ARV drug-experienced individuals, while T215YFrev and M41L were more frequent in ARV drug-naïve subjects. Prevalence of mutations associated to protease inhibitors (PI) was lower than 4.1% in both types of subjects. Therefore, there is a high level of resistance (>73%) to Efavirenz/Nevirapine, Lamivudine and Azidothymidine in ARV drug-experienced subjects, and an intermediate to high level of resistance (5–10%) to Efavirenz/Nevirapine in ARV drug-naïve subjects. During the study period, we observed an increasing trend in the prevalence of ADR-CRM in subjects under first-line schemes, but not significant changes in the prevalence of SDRM. These results reinforce the paramount importance of a national surveillance system of ADR-CRM and SDRM for national management policies of subjects living with HIV.

Phylodynamics of major HIV-1 subtype B pandemic clades circulating in Latin America

OBJECTIVE

To obtain a comprehensive description of the evolutionary and demographic history of major HIV-1 subtype B pandemic (BPANDEMIC) clades circulating in Latin America.

DESIGN

A total of 6789 HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences collected from seven different Latin American countries between 1990 and 2011 were combined with BPANDEMIC reference sequences (n = 500) from the United States and France.

METHODS

Major BPANDEMIC clades were identified by maximum likelihood phylogenetic analysis with sequential pruning of ambiguously positioned taxa. Time scale and demographic reconstructions were performed using a Bayesian coalescent-based method.

RESULTS

We identified 12 major BPANDEMIC monophyletic lineages mainly composed by Latin American sequences and that together comprise 36% of all subtype B sequences from the region here included. Four clades belong to two major regional lineages that comprise sequences from at least two neighboring countries, whereas the other eight clades were country-specific. The median age of major Latin American BPANDEMIC clades encompass a period of two decades (1968-1988), although most of them probably arose before the early 1980s. All major clades seem to have experienced an initial period of exponential growth, with median epidemic growth rates that range from 0.50 yearto 0.94 year, followed by a recent decline in growth rate.

CONCLUSION

About one-third of HIV-1 subtype B infections in Latin America originated from the spread of a few BPANDEMIC founder strains probably introduced in the region since the late 1960s. Despite their initial successful dissemination, all major BPANDEMIC clades showed signs of subsequent epidemic stabilization.

Phylogenetics of HIV-1 subtype G env: Greater complexity and older origins than previously reported

HIV-1 subtype G has played an early and central role in the emergent complexity of the HIV-1 group M (HIV-1M) epidemic in central/west Africa. Here, we analysed new subtype G env sequences sampled from 8 individuals in Yaoundé, Cameroon during 2007-2010, together with all publically available subtype G-attributed full-length env sequences with known sampling dates and locations. We inferred that the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of the analysed subtype G env sequences most likely occurred in ∼1953 (95% Highest Posterior Density interval [HPD] 1939-1963): about 15 years earlier than previous estimates. We found that the subtype G env phylogeny has a complex structure including seven distinct lineages, each likely dating back to the late 1960s or early 1970s. Sequences from Angola, Gabon and the Democratic Republic of Congo failed to group consistently in these lineages, possibly because they are related to more ancient sequences that are poorly sampled. The circulating recombinant form (CRF), CRF06_cpx env sequences but not CRF25_cpx env sequences are phylogenetically nested within the subtype G clade. This confirms that the CRF06_cpx env plausibly was derived through recombination from a subtype G parent, and suggests that the CRF25_cpx env was likely derived from an HIV-1M lineage related to the MRCA of subtype G that has remained undiscovered and may be extinct. Overall, this fills important gaps in our knowledge of the early events in the spread of HIV-1M.

Expansion of the CRF19_cpx Variant in Spain

BACKGROUND

HIV-1 CRF19_cpx, is a recombinant variant found almost exclusively in Cuba and recently associated to a faster AIDS onset. Infection with this variant leads to higher viral loads and levels of RANTES and CXCR4 co-receptor use.

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this study was to assess the presence of CRF19_cpx in the Spanish province of Valencia, given its high pathogenicity.

STUDY DESIGN

1294 HIV-1 protease-reverse transcriptase (PR/RT) sequences were obtained in Valencia (Spain), between 2005 and 2014. After subtyping, the detected CRF19_cpx sequences were aligned with 201 CRF19_cpx and 66 subtype D sequences retrieved from LANL, and subjected to maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analyses and Bayesian coalescent reconstructions. The presence of resistance mutations in the PR/RT region of these sequences was also analyzed.

RESULTS

Among the 9 CRF19_cpx sequences from different patients found (prevalence <0.1%), 7 grouped in two well-supported clades (groups A, n=4, and B, n=3), suggesting the existence of at least two independent introductions which subsequently started to expand in the studied Spanish region. Unprotected sex between men was the only known transmission route. Coalescent analyses suggested that the introductions in Valencia occurred between 2008 and 2010. Resistance mutations in the RT region were found in all sequences from group A (V139D) and in two sequences from group B (E138A).

CONCLUSIONS

This study reports for the first time the recent expansion of CRF19_cpx outside Cuba. Our results suggest that CRF19_cpx might become an emerging HIV variant in Spain, affecting Spanish native MSM and not only Cuban migrants.

Origin and Population Dynamics of a Novel HIV-1 Subtype G Clade Circulating in Cape Verde and Portugal

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype G is the most prevalent and second most prevalent HIV-1 clade in Cape Verde and Portugal, respectively; but there is no information about the origin and spatiotemporal dispersal pattern of this HIV-1 clade circulating in those countries. To this end, we used Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian coalescent-based methods to analyze a collection of 578 HIV-1 subtype G pol sequences sampled throughout Portugal, Cape Verde and 11 other countries from West and Central Africa over a period of 22 years (1992 to 2013). Our analyses indicate that most subtype G sequences from Cape Verde (80%) and Portugal (95%) branched together in a distinct monophyletic cluster (here called G_CV-PT). The G_CV-PT clade probably emerged after a single migration of the virus out of Central Africa into Cape Verde between the late 1970s and the middle 1980s, followed by a rapid dissemination to Portugal a couple of years later. Reconstruction of the demographic history of the G_CV-PT clade circulating in Cape Verde and Portugal indicates that this viral clade displayed an initial phase of exponential growth during the 1980s and 1990s, followed by a decline in growth rate since the early 2000s. Our data also indicate that during the exponential growth phase the G_CV-PT clade recombined with a preexisting subtype B viral strain circulating in Portugal, originating the CRF14_BG clade that was later disseminated to Spain and Cape Verde. Historical and recent human population movements between Angola, Cape Verde and Portugal probably played a key role in the origin and dispersal of the G_CV-PT and CRF14_BG clades.

Bridging epidemiology with population genetics in a low incidence MSM-driven HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in Central Europe

Background

The HIV-1 epidemic in Slovenia, a small Central European country, has some characteristics that make it an ideal model to study HIV-1 transmission. The epidemic is predominantly affecting men who have sex with men infected with subtype B (89% of all patients), has a low prevalence (less than 1/1000) and is growing slowly. The aim of the present study was to analyze in detail the evolutionary history and the determinants of transmission.

Methods

A total of 223 partial pol gene sequences from therapy naïve individuals were included, representing 52% of all patients newly diagnosed in 13 years (2000–2012) and analyzed together with genetically similar worldwide sequences, selected in a BLAST search.

Results

Combined analysis (maximum likelihood and Bayesian) of HIV-1 transmission chains revealed 8 major clusters (n ≥ 10 patients), 1 group of 4 patients, 2 trios and 12 transmission pairs, thus leaving only 43 (19.3%) Slovenian patients infected with subtype B without a local epidemiological link, indicating a predominance of local transmission of HIV-1 infection. Bayesian analysis performed on a full set of sequences estimated several introductions of HIV-1 into Slovenia, with the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of the earliest Slovenian cluster dated to the late 1980s, although tMRCAs obtained from separate independent analysis of each cluster showed considerably more recent estimates. These findings indicate inconsistencies in molecular clock estimation, which we further explored.

We hypothesize that these inconsistent dating estimates across the tree could be caused by an evolutionary rate acceleration of HIV-1 after entering the Slovenia epidemic that is not taken into account by the molecular clock model. It could be caused by a lower transmission rate in this setting, as demonstrated by the low epidemic growth rate estimated by Bayesian skyline plot analysis.

Conclusions

HIV-1 subtype B was introduced into Slovenia at several time points from the late 80s onward. The majority of patients had a local transmission link, indicating a closed HIV community. The observed slower epidemic rate suggests that individuals with a long-lasting infection are the driving force of the epidemic in this region.

CRF19_cpx is an Evolutionary fit HIV-1 Variant Strongly Associated With Rapid Progression to AIDS in Cuba

Background

Clinicians reported an increasing trend of rapid progression (RP) (AIDS within 3 years of infection) in Cuba.

Methods

Recently infected patients were prospectively sampled, 52 RP at AIDS diagnosis (AIDS-RP) and 21 without AIDS in the same time frame (non-AIDS). 22 patients were sampled at AIDS diagnosis (chronic-AIDS) retrospectively assessed as > 3 years infected. Clinical, demographic, virological, epidemiological and immunological data were collected. Pol and env sequences were used for subtyping, transmission cluster analysis, and prediction of resistance, co-receptor use and evolutionary fitness. Host, immunological and viral predictors of RP were explored through data mining.

Findings

Subtyping revealed 26 subtype B strains, 6 C, 6 CRF18_cpx, 9 CRF19_cpx, 29 BG-recombinants and other subtypes/URFs. All patients infected with CRF19 belonged to the AIDS-RP group. Data mining identified CRF19, oral candidiasis and RANTES levels as the strongest predictors of AIDS-RP. CRF19 was more frequently predicted to use the CXCR4 co-receptor, had higher fitness scores in the protease region, and patients had higher viral load at diagnosis.

Interpretation

CRF19 is a recombinant of subtype D (C-part of Gag, PR, RT and nef), subtype A (N-part of Gag, Integrase, Env) and subtype G (Vif, Vpr, Vpu and C-part of Env). Since subtypes D and A have been associated with respectively faster and slower disease progression, our findings might indicate a fit PR driving high viral load, which in combination with co-infections may boost RANTES levels and thus CXCR4 use, potentially explaining the fast progression. We propose that CRF19 is evolutionary very fit and causing rapid progression to AIDS in many newly infected patients in Cuba.

•

We propose that CRF19 is evolutionary very fit, causing rapid progression to AIDS in many newly infected patients in Cuba.

•

CRF19 is a recombinant of subtype D, subtype A and subtype G, with a subtype D protease estimated to be particularly fit.

•

A fit protease with high viral load and co-infections, may boost RANTES levels and thus CXCR4 use, hence fast progression.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of dissemination of non-pandemic HIV-1 subtype B clades in the Caribbean region

The Human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) epidemic in the Caribbean region is mostly driven by subtype B; but information about the pattern of viral spread in this geographic region is scarce and different studies point to quite divergent models of viral dissemination. In this study, we reconstructed the spatiotemporal and population dynamics of the HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in the Caribbean. A total of 1,806 HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences collected from 17 different Caribbean islands between 1996 and 2011 were analyzed together with sequences from the United States (n = 525) and France (n = 340) included as control. Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analyses revealed that HIV-1 subtype B infections in the Caribbean are driven by dissemination of the pandemic clade (BPANDEMIC) responsible for most subtype B infections across the world, and older non-pandemic lineages (BCAR) characteristics of the Caribbean region. The non-pandemic BCAR strains account for >40% of HIV-1 infections in most Caribbean islands; with exception of Cuba and Puerto Rico. Bayesian phylogeographic analyses indicate that BCAR strains probably arose in the island of Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic) around the middle 1960s and were later disseminated to Trinidad and Tobago and to Jamaica between the late 1960s and the early 1970s. In the following years, the BCAR strains were also disseminated from Hispaniola and Trinidad and Tobago to other Lesser Antilles islands at multiple times. The BCAR clades circulating in Hispaniola, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago appear to have experienced an initial phase of exponential growth, with mean estimated growth rates of 0.35-0.45 year(-1), followed by a more recent stabilization since the middle 1990s. These results demonstrate that non-pandemic subtype B lineages have been widely disseminated through the Caribbean since the late 1960s and account for an important fraction of current HIV-1 infections in the region.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of the HIV-1 subtype G epidemic in West and Central Africa

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype G is the second most prevalent HIV-1 clade in West Africa, accounting for nearly 30% of infections in the region. There is no information about the spatiotemporal dynamics of dissemination of this HIV-1 clade in Africa. To this end, we analyzed a total of 305 HIV-1 subtype G pol sequences isolated from 11 different countries from West and Central Africa over a period of 20 years (1992 to 2011). Evolutionary, phylogeographic and demographic parameters were jointly estimated from sequence data using a Bayesian coalescent-based method. Our analyses indicate that subtype G most probably emerged in Central Africa in 1968 (1956–1976). From Central Africa, the virus was disseminated to West and West Central Africa at multiple times from the middle 1970s onwards. Two subtype G strains probably introduced into Nigeria and Togo between the middle and the late 1970s were disseminated locally and to neighboring countries, leading to the origin of two major western African clades (G_WA-I and G_WA-II). Subtype G clades circulating in western and central African regions displayed an initial phase of exponential growth followed by a decline in growth rate since the early/middle 1990s; but the mean epidemic growth rate of G_WA-I (0.75 year⁻¹) and G_WA-II (0.95 year⁻¹) clades was about two times higher than that estimated for central African lineages (0.47 year⁻¹). Notably, the overall evolutionary and demographic history of G_WA-I and G_WA-II clades was very similar to that estimated for the CRF06_cpx clade circulating in the same region. These results support the notion that the spatiotemporal dissemination dynamics of major HIV-1 clades circulating in western Africa have probably been shaped by the same ecological factors.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype B epidemic in Panama is mainly driven by dissemination of country-specific clades

The Human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) subtype B is the most predominant clade in Central America; but information about the evolutionary history of this virus in this geographic region is scarce. In this study, we reconstructed the spatiotemporal and population dynamics of the HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in Panama. A total of 761 HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences obtained in Panama between 2004 and 2013 were combined with subtype B pol sequences from the Americas and Europe. Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analyses revealed that HIV-1 subtype B infections in Panama derived from the dissemination of multiple founder viruses. Most Panamanian subtype B viruses (94.5%) belong to the pandemic viral strain proposed as originated in the US, whereas others (5.5%) were intermixed among non-pandemic Caribbean strains. The bulk (76.6%) of subtype B sequences from Panama grouped within 12 country-specific clades that were not detected in other Central American countries. Bayesian coalescent-based analyses suggest that most Panamanian clades probably originated between the early 1970s and the early 1980s. The root location of major Panamanian clades was traced to the most densely populated districts of Panama province. Major Panamanian clades appear to have experienced one or two periods of exponential growth of variable duration between the 1970s and the 2000s, with median growth rates from 0.2 to 0.4 year⁻¹. Thus, the HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in Panama is driven by the expansion of local viral strains that were introduced from the Caribbean and other American countries at an early stage of the AIDS pandemic.